Damsite flood restoration method based on Copula function

Abstract

The invention discloses a damsite flood restoration method based on a Copula function. A joint distribution function of damsite peak flow before a reservoir is built, computative reservoir-in peak flow and peak flow time is constructed according to the Copula function, a joint distribution function of damsite flood volume, commutative reservoir-in flood volume and peak occurring time is constructed, a most probable value function of the damsite peak flow and the damsite flood volume is derived on the basis of the conditional probability density maximum principle of the joint distribution function, reservoir-in flood data after the reservoir is built is substituted into the most probable value function, a most probable value of the damsite peak flow and the damsite flood volume is solved, and therefore reservoir-in flood volume process data after the reservoir is built are restored to damsite flood. According to the damsite flood restoration method based on the Copula function, a strong statistic basis is achieved, the compound mode of the damsite flood and reservoir-in flood is unique, and the characteristics of an actual measurement sample can be objectively reflected; the internal relatedness among all the characteristic quantities are fully considered, and a reference basis which is important and strong in operability can be supplied to the reservoir to restore the damsite flood according to the reserivoir-in flood data.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a flood restoration method at a dam site, in particular to a flood restoration method at a dam site based on a Copula function. Background technique [0002] Among the reservoirs that have been built in my country, most of them use the design flood of the dam site section before the construction of the reservoir (called the dam site flood) as the basis for reservoir planning and design, and carry out flood regulation calculations based on this to obtain relevant flood control parameters. However, after the reservoir was built, the reservoir area became a wide water surface, and the floodwater actually entered the reservoir from the boundary around the reservoir, which is called the inflow flood, rather than entering the reservoir at the dam site. After the reservoir is built, with the increase of operating time, the design flood data needs to be extended, which is mainly used to check the rationality of the design value of the ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The Copula function can connect the marginal distributions of multiple random variables to construct a joint distribution. At present, there is no literature that introduces the Copula function into the analysis and research of dam site flood and inflow flood. Currently, the main method of restoring dam site flood through inbound flood data is The internal correlation between the flood peak (or flood volume) at the dam site and the flood peak at the dam site and the time of peak appearance is not fully considered by analyzing the characteristics of the flood at the dam site and the inflow flood, and there are major defects

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