Typical- empirical-model-based emergency flood forecasting method

Abstract

The invention discloses a typical- empirical-model-based emergency flood forecasting method. The method comprises: a statistical analysis is carried out on historical practically-measured flood elements to form a basic basis data set for emergency flood forecasting; refining processing is carried out on floods below a once-in-a-ten-year level by using an interpolation method and a designed flood process line table is obtained according to a refined interpolation method; view processing is carried out on main relevant elements of historical practically-measured floods and a historical flood scatter diagram is established by using values of process precipitation P plus early-stage influence rainfall Pa as horizontal coordinates and flooding starting flows as longitudinal coordinates; and according to the historical practically-measured floods and designed flood characteristics values, qualitative and quantitative water-break forecasting is carried out. Therefore, forecasting can be carried out timely and accurately under any circumstance; the timeliness and integrity requirements on drainage basin rainfall data by real-time flood forecasting can be reduced; and the method is simple and is easy to implement.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an emergency flood forecasting method based on a typical empirical model, belonging to the technical field of flood forecasting. Background technique [0002] According to the current level of meteorological forecast development and forecast accuracy, the available short-term rainfall forecast information mainly refers to the rainfall forecast information for the next 24h and 48h. With the enrichment of flood forecasting theory and the continuous development of forecasting technology, the accuracy and forecast period of the forecast have been greatly improved, and the application of flood forecasting information to reservoir operation has been paid more and more attention. Since the rainfall forecast (that is, flood forecast) is the basis for reservoir dispatching, reservoir dispatching has higher requirements for flood forecasting: timely and accurate forecasting under any circumstances. [0003] In the domestic reservoir dis...

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Problems solved by technology

The two model methods have high requirements on the timeliness and completeness of the rainfall data in the basin. It is necessary to have complete rainfall and hydrological control station data. Through the formed flood forecasting program, the final forecasting plan is formed after complex calculations, and the smooth rate of communication , The stability of the automation system and the stability of the network are highly dependent, and can only solve the problem of flood forecasting under normal circumstances (including roads, traffic, communications, electricity, information collection and transmission, etc.); Flood forecasting under extraordinary circumstances (generally roads, traffic, communications, electricity, information collection and transmission, etc. are prone to interruption) may have serious problems that cannot be made in time or even cannot be made. Flood Forecasting Program to enable 24 / 7 flood forecasting

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