127 results about "Water balance" patented technology

The invention provides an AI flood real-time simulation method for urban hydrological multi-physics field decoupling supervision, and the method comprises the steps: constructing an intelligent physical prediction model of urban flood, carrying out the layered decoupling of an urban hydrological hydrodynamic system, separating a one-dimensional drainage pipe network submodule from a two-dimensional surface flood module, designing a multi-scale physical constraint loss function for different links, and carrying out the real-time simulation of the AI flood. Microcosmic, mesoscopic and macroscopic multi-scale physical constraint fusion is realized, and residual constraints of the Saint-Venant equation are embedded in a neural network agent of a drainage system in a microcosmic level; in the mid-level, embedding the residual constraint of the shallow water equation in the surface flood routing system; in the macroscopic level, the water balance constraint of the whole system is realized; urban hydrology and hydrodynamic force are decoupled, and multi-scale physical field supervision constraint is achieved.

The invention discloses a method for predicting the long-term delivery probability of a dual-drive reservoir, and belongs to the technical field of intelligent scheduling of water resources. Comprising the steps of constructing and training a causal consistency probability inflow prediction model, eradicating quantile crossover mathematically by adopting a double-anchor symmetric chain output layer, and performing training by utilizing a gradient heterogeneous modulation normal form based on internal attention deconstruction to efficiently learn a hydrological process; a mechanism constraint outflow prediction model is constructed and applied, physical mechanisms such as a water balance equation and an ex-warehouse boundary are deeply transformed and embedded into a loss function of a gradient boosting decision tree, and the model is forced to self-learn and comply with physical rules in the training process. According to the invention, a reservoir outbound prediction scheme with probability self-consistency and physical reliability can be generated.

The invention discloses an irrigation area scale irrigation water consumption monitoring method based on physical constraint machine learning, and is applied to the technical field of irrigation water consumption monitoring. Comprising the following steps: constructing a space-time continuous sequence of irrigation response characteristics of an irrigation area by using a multi-source data integration and assimilation technology; the irrigation water amount balance equation and the earth surface energy conservation law are used as regularization terms of physical constraints to be embedded into the training process of the long and short term memory deep learning model, so that an irrigation water amount prediction model is established; and dynamically estimating the irrigation water consumption of the irrigation area based on the irrigation water consumption prediction model obtained by training. According to the method, the water balance equation and the energy conservation law are embedded into the machine learning model, so that the model prediction result follows the basic physical law, and water consumption estimation violating the physical common sense is avoided. The introduction of the physical constraint improves the robustness and generalization ability of the model under an unconventional climate condition or a limited training data condition, and enhances the credibility and interpretability of a result.

The invention discloses a staged design flood estimation method under the influence of climate change and reservoir regulation and storage. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring meteorological and hydrological data, human water consumption data and global climate mode output data of a reservoir; a reduced natural reservoir runoff series is obtained based on a water balance method, a GR4J-9 hydrological model is calibrated to achieve natural reservoir runoff simulation, and a long-short-term memory model is constructed to simulate the influence of human activities such as reservoir regulation and storage on runoff; based on a global climate mode set and a quantile deviation correction method, driving a GR4J-9 hydrological model and a long-short term memory model to obtain a reservoir runoff series under climate change and performing flood season staging; establishing a staging design flood calculation model of a future scene based on a Copula function, and deducing the most probable staging design flood; and constructing an emergence constraint model based on the dew point temperature so as to obtain a corrected stage design flood result. According to the method, the comprehensive influence of climate change and reservoir regulation and storage is considered, and a reference basis is provided for deducing stage design flood.

The invention relates to the technical field of ecology and hydrology, in particular to a terrestrial ecosystem water carbon flux estimation method considering water balance constraint, which comprises the following steps: estimating leaf scale photosynthetic rate and stomatal conductance by utilizing a photosynthesis model; the leaf scale photosynthetic rate and the stomatal conductance are upscaled into canopy vegetation total primary productivity and canopy conductance to construct an evapotranspiration model to estimate evapotranspiration data; constructing a water balance model according to the evapotranspiration data so as to estimate the available water amount of the soil; constructing a soil moisture stress function according to the available water amount of the soil so as to constrain the estimation process of the photosynthesis model and the evapotranspiration model; and acquiring historical water-carbon flux data and historical remote sensing observation data of a long sequence daily scale, and calibrating the model to obtain a water-balance-constraint-considered water-carbon flux estimation model of the terrestrial ecosystem capable of estimating the water-carbon flux data. Therefore, the problems that an existing water carbon flux prediction frame is difficult to adapt to climate changes, low in prediction accuracy and the like are solved.

The invention discloses a river spill flood routing rapid simulation method based on river adaptive segmentation and strong water balance constraint, and the method comprises the steps: collecting and processing basic data of a drainage basin, building a rapid calculation model of river spill flood inundation, and carrying out the rapid prediction and risk analysis of the river spill flood. Rapid and fine simulation of watershed river overflow flood is realized, four-pre requirements of watershed flood control fine simulation, real-time early warning and forecasting, rapid scene deduction and the like are met, and the method can also serve watershed flood control planning and design.

An early warning method for debris flow disaster in a small watershed, and a disaster reduction method for debris flows in a small watershed is disclosed. An early warning method for debris flow disaster in a small watershed is provided, in which parameters of a hydrological model are calibrated by rainfall, evaporation and runoff data of the watershed based on water balance of the watershed, and an early monitoring and warning scheme for debris flows, which takes water storage in the watershed as a core monitoring and evaluation indicator, is established. The GR4J hydrological model is improved by taking into account a watershed area, specific yield of an aquifer and several geological parameters, as well as an evapotranspiration effect of vegetation. A disaster reduction method by means of regulation of a drainage channel can provide a basis for mathematical model simulation studies of disaster reduction in small watersheds.

The invention relates to a reservoir dispatching management method and system based on digital twinning, and the method comprises the following steps: carrying out the real-time parameter collection of a target reservoir, and obtaining a reservoir characteristic parameter matrix; performing three-dimensional space modeling based on the reservoir characteristic parameter matrix and the reservoir hydrogeological environment in the target reservoir to obtain a reservoir digital twinborn model; performing drainage basin rainfall-runoff dynamic response analysis on the reservoir digital twin model to obtain a drainage basin hydrological response characteristic curve group; performing prospective water balance calculation on the watershed hydrological response characteristic curve group to obtain a multi-period reservoir flow prediction sequence; and formulating an optimal scheduling instruction set of the target reservoir based on the multi-period reservoir inflow prediction sequence, and regulating and controlling a reservoir gate control system in the target reservoir based on the optimal scheduling instruction set. And the method is difficult to adapt to hydro meteorological conditions and multi-target scheduling requirements which change in real time.

The invention relates to the technical field of hydrological monitoring, and discloses a regional groundwater reserve change dynamic monitoring method based on gravity satellite time series data analysis. According to the method, the multi-source data scale effect and observation noise are effectively eliminated, the physical reliability and resolution of groundwater signal extraction are improved, and the recognition precision and early warning perspectiveness of the abnormal loss trend are enhanced. A full-chain monitoring closed loop of multi-source satellite observation, high-precision physical inversion and dynamic statistical benchmark is constructed, multi-dimensional environment data is aligned, a component separation strategy based on multi-element physical mechanism constraint is established based on a water balance principle, and anomaly diagnosis is performed in combination with a self-adaptively updated long-time-sequence historical database.

The invention discloses an irrigation index prediction method based on meteorological data and field moisture capacity, and relates to the technical field of intelligent agriculture, and the method comprises the steps: collecting real-time meteorological data, real-time soil volumetric water content data, soil matrix potential data and future precipitation forecast data, and carrying out quality control and time alignment processing to obtain a multi-source data set; the method comprises the following steps: calculating evapotranspiration of a reference crop according to real-time meteorological data, obtaining actual water demand of the crop in combination with a crop coefficient, calculating a moisture stress coefficient according to real-time soil volumetric water content data and a field moisture capacity static parameter value, and obtaining a basic irrigation demand index in combination with future precipitation forecast data. According to the method, the evapotranspiration amount is separated by adopting the Shuttleworth-Wallace model, the irrigation index integrating the crop evapotranspiration amount, the water deficit amount and the effective precipitation amount is generated on the basis of multi-period rolling water balance calculation and risk decision rules, and online calibration of soil parameters and optimization of irrigation decision are achieved.

The invention relates to the technical field of geological engineering and underground water simulation, and discloses a regional underground water simulation method and system based on a physical mechanism and deep learning, and the method comprises the steps: converting the static attributes of an observation well into the embedding of nodes and edges through a graph neural network, and obtaining spatial features; according to the dynamic input of the observation well, modeling time sequence response of the underground water system under external dynamic driving through a long short-term memory neural network; deep fusion of spatial features and time dynamics is realized through a feature interaction mechanism, and a groundwater level simulation value is generated; combining a water balance constraint with a relative water level consistency constraint between observation wells to jointly construct a composite loss function for quantifying a difference between an analog value and a real observation value, and guiding parameter updating; the time-space dynamic and physical mechanism can be sensed synchronously, and the method is more reliable and efficient.

The invention discloses an end-to-end drainage basin flood risk influence forecasting method based on physical constraints, and particularly relates to the technical field of meteorological and hydrological forecasting and artificial intelligence, and the method comprises the steps: S1, obtaining multi-source spatio-temporal data of a target drainage basin, constructing a drainage basin graph structure after spatio-temporal alignment and meshing, and constructing a drainage basin graph structure; and S2, constructing an end-to-end deep learning network comprising an adaptive multi-modal feature extraction module and an influence forecasting module, and training the network by using a loss function fused with physical constraints to obtain a flood risk influence forecasting model, the physical constraints at least comprising a water balance constraint. According to the method, the physical mechanism is deeply embedded into the data driving model, the key problems of error accumulation, poor physical consistency and disaster sample scarcity of a traditional cascade forecasting mode are solved, and the forecasting precision and reliability are remarkably improved.

The invention discloses a flood forecast evaluation method adapted to reservoir dispatching characteristics, which comprises the following steps: respectively driving the same hydrological model by using historical observation rainfall and forecast rainfall, quantifying the error contribution of the hydrological model and rainfall forecast through double-track difference, and constructing a sample evaluation weight in combination with a rainfall score; constructing a weighting condition error distribution model based on the weight, and generating a reservoir flow forecasting scene set containing physical cause characteristics; and inputting the scene set into a reservoir scheduling model containing flood control and benefit-making rules, and outputting a comprehensive scheduling risk index containing a downstream over-alarm risk and water abandoning loss through water balance and downstream evolution calculation. According to the method, the statistical weight is corrected through error attribution, the abstract forecast error is converted into specific engineering risk and economic loss, the hidden risk working condition which is difficult to find by a traditional statistical index is effectively identified, and a quantitative basis is provided for risk decision making of reservoir dispatching and targeted optimization of a forecast system.

The invention discloses a physical constraint fused deep learning gravity satellite groundwater vertical signal separation method, which comprises the following steps: S1, acquiring and preprocessing basic data: calculating to obtain total groundwater reserve abnormities needing vertical separation, unifying all data to a preset temporal-spatial resolution, and removing abnormal values; s2, constructing a deep learning model, which is configured to receive the preprocessed time sequence including the total groundwater reserve abnormality and meteorological data as input, and output shallow groundwater reserve abnormality and deep groundwater reserve abnormality at corresponding time; s3, the deep learning model is trained, optimization is carried out by adopting a composite loss function, and the composite loss function comprises a data-driven loss item Ldata and a physical constraint loss item Lwater based on water balance; and S4, after training is completed, inputting a total groundwater reserve abnormal signal into the deep learning model for processing, and outputting a separated shallow groundwater reserve abnormal time sequence and a separated deep groundwater reserve abnormal time sequence.

The invention discloses a multi-level water supply and drainage balance monitoring method and system for the water affair industry, and relates to the technical field of water affair monitoring. The method comprises the following steps: deploying a multi-level monitoring network; the method comprises the following steps: collecting real-time data of a multi-level monitoring network, executing space-time alignment operation, and preprocessing the data; constructing a quarterly three-dimensional water balance equation, and dynamically estimating through Kalman filtering; dBSCAN clustering is implemented based on pipe network topology, and leakage positioning is carried out to generate a leakage probability thermodynamic diagram; and establishing a hierarchical response mechanism to carry out multi-level early warning linkage, and rendering a multi-layer perspective view in a GIS (Geographic Information System) engine. According to the method, a quarterly three-dimensional water balance equation is constructed through a city-region-enterprise three-level dynamic weight model and a hierarchical penetration algorithm, and dynamic estimation is performed through Kalman filtering; dBSCAN clustering is implemented based on the pipe network topology, leakage positioning is performed, a leakage probability thermodynamic diagram is generated, the water affair monitoring efficiency is improved, and the manual troubleshooting workload is reduced.

The invention provides a drought and flood sudden change prediction method and system based on artificial intelligence, and the method comprises the steps: collecting the in-out reservoir runoff observation data of a reservoir in a target region, obtaining a restored natural reservoir runoff series based on a water balance method, calibrating a long-short-term memory model through a minimum batch gradient descent method, and carrying out the prediction of the drought and flood sudden change. Based on the natural reservoir runoff, the actual reservoir runoff and meteorological data, constructing a long-short-term memory model to simulate the influence of water conservancy project regulation and storage on the runoff; based on an earth system mode set and a multivariable deviation correction method, performing spatial downscaling on output data of earth system modes to obtain corrected meteorological variables; driving a multi-member set of an earth system mode, and separating by adopting a detection attribution technology to obtain a contribution rate of man-made climate compulsion to drought and flood sudden turning event evolution; and predicting a daily runoff process under future climate change, and predicting a future drought and flood sudden turning event by adopting deep learning and superposition of regulation and storage influence of a water conservancy project.

The invention discloses an efficient regulation and control method and system for water resources in a cold region under soil erosion, and the method comprises the steps: collecting regional weather, soil and crop data, and dividing a space grid unit; constructing a freeze-thaw period water balance model, and simulating day-by-day soil water content and snow melting water dynamics; an irrigation-yield correlation model and an improved soil erosion model are established, and the driving effect of irrigation water quantity on crop growth and soil loss is quantified; designing a yield, water saving amount and erosion amount three-objective optimization function, generating a Pareto optimal solution set by adopting a third-generation non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-III), and optimizing an irrigation scheme in combination with a decision algorithm. The method has the advantages that the limitation of traditional single target regulation and control is broken through multi-model coupling, and accurate quantification of the contribution rate of the irrigation water amount in soil erosion is achieved; the water and soil loss risk of the high-gradient area is effectively reduced based on the differential regulation and control strategy of the space grid, and meanwhile the water demand of crops is guaranteed; the black soil area water resource utilization efficiency is improved, and cultivated land degradation is inhibited.

The invention discloses a surface water-underground water-mine water coupling simulation scheduling method and system, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining a drainage basin around a target mine in a research region, and screening a reference point closest to the target mine; calculating a water quality fluctuation coefficient of a drainage basin where a reference point closest to the target mine is located on the influence drainage basin; calculating the influence weight of the influence basin on the target mine; and constructing a water balance equation of each influence drainage basin and an underground water control equation associated with the target mine water and the underground water, taking the amount of water permeating into the underground water in the influence drainage basin as an underground water source convergence item, simulating the change state of the mine water, and planning the water amount which can be scheduled at the current simulation scheduling moment of the target mine. The system comprises a water quality sensor, a water level sensor, a data acquisition module and data processing equipment. The method is suitable for dynamic optimization management of mining areas and surrounding complex water resource systems, and is especially suitable for water resource safety scheduling and water disaster prevention and control of mining areas with large water inflow.

The invention discloses a water pollution traceability monitoring method and a monitoring platform based on water balance, and the method comprises the steps: arranging a flowmeter in a rainwater / sewage channel maintenance well, dividing a detection region by taking the flowmeter as a reference point through a GIS system, screening a stable time period when the rainwater flow is stable through a sliding window algorithm, and carrying out the tracking of the rainwater flow. Calculating the total sewage inflow and the actual sewage / rainwater total flow of the area according to the flow meter data in the time period, judging whether the area is normal or not according to a balance value, distinguishing the mixed connection or leakage type according to an abnormal judgment value when the area is abnormal, generating a coincident control taking the flow as the diameter on a monitoring platform, and visually displaying the pollution load difference value; flowmeter redundancy configuration is adopted to ensure data continuity, and an abnormal diffusion path prediction map and a thermodynamic diagram are generated through a wavelet transform algorithm to assist accurate positioning. The monitoring platform is composed of a readable storage medium and a processor, accurate monitoring, intelligent anomaly classification and visual early warning of sewage seepage are achieved by executing the method, and the operation and maintenance efficiency is improved.

The invention discloses a dynamic flood risk evaluation method based on flood inundation simulation, and relates to the technical field of natural disasters. The method includes: acquiring meteorological and hydrological data of a target area; constructing a flood risk model according to the meteorological and hydrological data, and carrying out flood risk model parameter calibration by utilizing actually measured rainfall data and flow-water level data; based on a D8 diffusion algorithm and water balance equivalent analysis of a GIS spatial analysis technology, converting the water amount, higher than the river embankment, of the target area into a submerged water depth sum by using the constructed flood risk model, obtaining a submerged water depth map of the target area, and generating a flood deduction result; and according to the flood deduction result, determining flood disaster risk grade division of the target area, and evaluating the flood disaster risk. According to the method, the flood risk model and the flood rehearsal model of GIS spatial analysis are constructed, and the flood risk model can well reflect the flood rehearsal result.

The invention discloses a dynamic water balance calculation method for a river type reservoir. The dynamic water balance calculation method comprises the following steps: step 1, determining a river type reservoir control basin range and dividing water catchment units; 2, predicting the reservoir water amount of the river type reservoir based on the distributed hydrological model; 3, calculating the maximum possible water storage capacity of the riverway type reservoir; 4, calculating the water loss amount of the river type reservoir; 5, calculating the water storage capacity and the drainage capacity of the riverway type reservoir; and 6, correcting the water storage amount and the discharged water amount of the reservoir based on ecological flow control requirements. According to the method, the regulation, storage and discharge process of the river type reservoir can be dynamically adjusted and corrected, improvement of a downstream ecological system of the reservoir is promoted, important technical support is provided for water resource management, scheduling optimization and planning design of the river type reservoir, and overall improvement of the management efficiency of the river type reservoir is promoted.

The invention relates to a subway station waterlogging risk rapid assessment method based on system water balance, and the method comprises the following steps: S1, dividing a research region through terrain analysis and pipe network partitioning, and taking a catchment region where a subway station is located as an independent system; s2, calculating system inflow Wr by utilizing the designed rainstorm intensity and the comprehensive runoff coefficient; s3, calculating the system displacement Wp based on the design standard of the research area pipe network; s4, calculating the water accumulation amount Wj of the system through a water balance equation; s5, calculating system capacity W0 by means of terrain elevation data and a GIS tool; and S6, judging whether a waterlogging risk exists in the research area or not by comparing calculation results of the system water accumulation amount Wj and the system capacity W0. According to the method, rapid assessment of the metro station waterlogging risk at the initial stage is realized, the data requirement of metro station waterlogging assessment is reduced, and the required cost and time are reduced.

The application discloses a kind of substation flood intelligent monitoring method and system, it is related to electric power system safety monitoring field.The method is by building the multi-dimensional influence factor library including the bottom elevation of discharge port and pipe network permeation loss, combined with rainfall forecast executes dynamic water balance deduction, deduce according to the dynamic correction soil infiltration capacity of early rainless days, and according to the effective pressure difference of water level and the bottom of discharge port calculates net drainage capacity;Based on the deduction result, water level height field is generated by combining three-dimensional digital model for waterlogging overflow distribution;According to water level height field and equipment elevation, determine the flooding risk, and generate dispatching instruction by taking water center as target and combining prohibited operation area to optimize equipment layout coordinates;Through man-machine interaction correction parameter and trigger GPU acceleration recalculation to realize model online evolution.The application realizes the physical mechanism simulation and space intelligent scheduling under the microscale of substation, changes passive alarm into active risk deduction.

The invention discloses a reservoir scheduling calculation method based on a differential form. The method comprises the following steps: S1, collecting basic data and parameters; s2, establishing a water balance equation in a differential form according to engineering precision requirements; s3, according to different scheduling modes, according to the initial state of the time period, obtaining the reservoir outlet flow at the end of the time period, substituting the reservoir outlet flow into a water balance equation in a differential form to solve the reservoir capacity at the end of the time period, and querying a water level-reservoir capacity relation curve to obtain the reservoir water level at the end of the time period; and S4, taking the calculated water level of the reservoir at the end of the time period and the reservoir outlet flow as initial values of the next differential time period, and repeating the step S3 until analog calculation of the whole scheduling period is completed. According to the method, a zigzag process line is effectively avoided, continuous dynamic simulation of the reservoir water level and the reservoir-out flow is achieved through tiny time period iteration, the critical point of a control operation plan, reservoir-in flow change or gate opening adjustment can be responded in time, and the problem of water level oscillation caused by constant variables in time periods in a traditional method is avoided.

The invention provides a basin scale groundwater reserve GWS long-term reconstruction method and system. The method comprises the steps that long-term meteorological and hydrological data in 1960-2023 and short-term land total water storage TWS after 2002 are acquired, fused and calibrated; according to a watershed scale water balance equation deltaTWS = deltaSWS + deltaSMS + deltaGWS, a short-term groundwater GWS sequence is obtained through calculation; using a short-term groundwater GWS sequence and a part after 2002 in the fused long-term meteorological and hydrological data as target data and driving data, and training a random forest RF sub-model of an RF-KF coupling model; inputting the fused long-term meteorological hydrological data into the trained random forest RF sub-model to obtain a groundwater reserve GWS long-term prediction result; and replacing the output of the prediction module of the Kalman filtering KF sub-model with the groundwater reserve GWS long-term prediction result, simulating time dynamic and correcting long-term prediction accumulation errors by using an updating module of the Kalman filtering KF sub-model, and obtaining a final groundwater reserve GWS long-term reconstruction result. According to the invention, GWS long-term reconstruction can be carried out.

The invention relates to a water storage drip irrigation technology, which is a new technology and a new scheme designed for preventing trees from extreme weather with high temperature, high heat, high radiation and high evaporation capacity during a drought period. The method has the advantages that (as shown in the figure 4) water balance of planted trees is guaranteed, the soil moisture preservation time is longer, the root cracking phenomenon can be effectively prevented, the cooling effect is achieved for the planted trees, and protection measures are very prominent. Through a point, section and surface combined drought resisting mode, full coverage of tree planting and maintenance is realized. And a full pipe network type slow-release drip irrigation technology is applied to meet the drought resisting requirement of long-term balanced water receiving of the planted trees, and manual operation is not needed in the whole process. The vehicle water supply and injection source is convenient, rapid and concentrated, and an optimal water conveying combination mode with main and auxiliary functions and complementary advantages is provided. Technical breakthroughs are as follows: a tree planting protection ring maintenance technology is invented; on the basis of points, sections and surfaces, tree planting drought-resisting full coverage is achieved; the invention relates to a slow-release drip irrigation water supply technology and a multi-purpose new technical scheme and the like.

The invention relates to the technical field of hydropower station safety, and discloses a hydropower station underground powerhouse flooding fault rapid simulation prediction method, which comprises the following steps: S1, constructing a rapid simulation analysis model, a parameter system of the rapid simulation analysis model comprising geometric parameters, hydraulic parameters and disaster parameters; s2, dividing a hydropower station underground powerhouse space of the rapid simulation analysis model into a plurality of reservoirs, and establishing a water balance equation; s3, the drainage capacity of a drainage system of the rapid simulation analysis model is calculated; s4, establishing a water leakage risk point leakage model of the rapid simulation analysis model, and calculating water inlet flow; and S5, based on the mass conservation equation and the momentum conservation equation, simulating the whole process from initial leakage to complete submerging by adopting a time stepping algorithm, and outputting a prediction simulation result. The method accurately simulates and predicts the flow and water level elevation penetrating into the plant according to the spatial structure characteristics of the underground plant, so as to improve the emergency decision accuracy and response speed.

The invention discloses a crop irrigation short-term prediction method and system based on fuzzy control, and relates to the technical field of intelligent agriculture and irrigation control, and the method comprises the steps: collecting weather, multi-depth soil moisture content and field time sequence data of a crop growth stage, and obtaining irrigation feedback; processing the data, and inputting a time sequence prediction model to output water demand prediction values of one to three days and confidence obtained by mapping historical verification errors; fuzzifying the water demand predicted value, the real-time root zone moisture content and the growth stage index, performing weighted deduction and fuzzification based on a fuzzy rule base with a rule dynamic weight, and outputting planned irrigation duration or irrigation amount; and calculating the actual water consumption and updating the dynamic weight of the rule in the post-irrigation evaluation time window according to the water balance and the root zone soil moisture reserve variation. Through confidence risk suppression and post-irrigation closed-loop self-tuning, the stability of short-term prediction driving irrigation decision is improved, the over-irrigation and over-seepage risks are reduced, and the utilization efficiency of irrigation water is improved.

A method for predicting the water power generation capability interval based on multi-scenarios water simulation and operation constraint clipping, comprising generating multiple water inflow scenario sequences based on the current hydro-meteorological state and labeling the occurrence probability; performing water balance calculation and output, flow and water head relationship calculation for each scenario at each time interval, and clipping the output sequence under the full physical constraints of water level, reservoir capacity, climbing and ecological flow, and outputting the physically feasible output; taking the high and low quantiles of all scenario output values to form the initial interval envelope; through forward continuity check and continuity correction, ensuring that the interval sequence meets the water level connection and climbing constraints between time intervals; according to different trading stages, the interval width is adaptively contracted, and the contraction coefficient is optimized through a self-learning module; finally, the structured interval containing confidence and risk sources is output.

The present invention provides a method and system for determining the timing of lake pre-discharge based on short-term rainfall forecasts, which relates to the technical field of urban flood control and drainage. The method includes: obtaining short-term rainfall forecast data; calculating hourly production and drainage flows based on the short-term rainfall forecast data, and calculating the total amount of water entering the lake based on the hourly flows before a set time; calculating the amount of water out of the lake based on the designed drainage flow of the pump station, the water balance equation, and the total amount of water entering the lake, and determining the total amount of water out of the lake; using the water balance equation, the total amount of water entering the lake, and the total amount of water out of the lake for joint calculation to obtain the pump station start-up time; the pump station start-up time is used to determine the lake pre-discharge timing. The present invention can dynamically optimize the pumping and drainage mode of the pump station in terms of time, determine the lake pre-discharge timing, and improve the city's ability to cope with heavy rainfall.