The invention discloses a
water supply risk assessment method,
system and device for tidal
estuary area salt tide invasion based on
fresh water prevailing and storage, and a storage medium. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring day-by-day
target site data and historical salt tide disaster
simulation data of a research area in the same
time sequence; training the historical salt tide disaster
simulation model by using the
target site data, and inputting the historical salt tide disaster
simulation data into the trained historical salt tide disaster simulation model to obtain a long-sequence historical
salinity simulation value; generalizing a
water supply system of the research area, and constructing a
water supply risk comprehensive evaluation
index system based on
fresh water grabbing and storage scheduling; based on the water supply risk comprehensive evaluation
index system, calculating a comprehensive water supply
risk index according to the long-sequence historical
salinity simulation value; and performing
frequency analysis on the comprehensive water supply
risk index, and dividing a water supply risk degree and an early warning level based on a set water supply
risk threshold. According to the method, the comprehensive water supply
risk index is quantified based on
fresh water preemptive storage scheduling, the salt tide risk degree and the early warning level are scientifically divided from the angles of the influence degree and the occurrence frequency of long-sequence historical salt tide disasters, and an effective decision basis is provided for water supply safety study and judgment of
estuary coastal areas depending on
tidal river reaches.