Design flood derivation method and system based on equal reliability in climatic change scene

A technology for climate change and design floods, applied in design optimization/simulation, instrumentation, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as difficulty in satisfying the consistency of hydrological extreme value series, and achieve strong operability

Active Publication Date: 2020-09-01
WUHAN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

The consistency of hydrological extreme value series under climate change is difficult to meet, and th

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  • Design flood derivation method and system based on equal reliability in climatic change scene
  • Design flood derivation method and system based on equal reliability in climatic change scene
  • Design flood derivation method and system based on equal reliability in climatic change scene

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[0046] In order to make the object, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described here are only used to explain the present invention, not to limit the present invention. In addition, the technical features involved in the various embodiments of the present invention described below can be combined with each other as long as they do not constitute a conflict with each other.

[0047] The invention discloses a method and system for deriving design floods based on equal reliability under climate change scenarios. The future rainfall and runoff sequences are obtained by simulating M sets of global climate models (Global Climate Models, GCMs), and obtained by principal component analysis. The optimal extreme rainfall index that affects the causes of floods, and then const...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a design flood derivation method and system based on equal reliability in a climatic change scene. The invention belongs to the field of reservoir flood control safety design.A future climate change scene is obtained based on global climate mode output and a two-stage deviation correction method considering meteorological variable correlation; a VIC distributed hydrological model is driven to obtain a runoff situation considering the influence of climate change; a principal component analysis method is adopted to preferably select an extreme rainfall index influencingflood characteristics as a covariable; a time-varying hydrological frequency analysis model is constructed by considering inconsistency of a flood sequence, a flood design value combination under a climatic change scene is deduced based on an equal reliability method, a most possible value is adopted as a final design value, and a 95% confidence interval is selected to estimate uncertainty of thefinal design value. According to the method, the influence of climate change on flood characteristics can be fully considered, and an important reference basis with high operability can be provided for deducing adaptive design flood in a climate change scene.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of reservoir flood control safety design, and more specifically relates to a design flood calculation method and system based on an equal reliability method under a climate change scenario. Background technique [0002] Design flood is an important basis for determining the construction scale of water conservancy and hydropower projects and formulating operation management strategies, and is of great significance for guiding reservoir operation scheduling and comprehensive planning and utilization of water resources. Since climate change affects the hydrological cycle process and changes the spatio-temporal distribution of hydrological extremes (such as floods) in different periods, how to deduce the adaptive design flood under climate change scenarios has become a current research difficulty. [0003] In recent years, researches on this issue at home and abroad are mainly divided into two categories. One i...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06F119/02
CPCG06F30/20G06F2119/02
Inventor 顾磊陈杰尹家波郭强李翔泉
Owner WUHAN UNIV
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