Reservoir multi-variable design flood estimating method for achieving self-adaption to weather changes

Abstract

The invention discloses a reservoir multi-variable design flood estimating method for achieving self-adaption to weather changes. A coupled model of a GCM and a VIC is built to predict the reservoir runoff process on the scene of future weather changes. A reservoir design flood peak volume most possible combination method calculation model is built through a Copula function, and reservoir predicted runoff data on the scene of the future weather changes serve as input of the design flood peak volume most possible combination method calculation model, and a combination design value of a reservoir at different recurrence period levels is calculated. The reservoir multi-variable design flood estimating method has a strong statistics basis, the characteristics of an actual measurement sample can be objectively reflected and the internal relatedness of the characteristic quantities is taken into full account. The design flood design value obtained under the condition that the weather changes are considered has higher practicability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of flood control safety design of reservoirs, in particular to a flood calculation method for multivariable design of reservoirs adaptive to climate change. Background technique [0002] The design flood is the basic basis of flood control planning. At present, the single-variable same-frequency method is mainly used to calculate the design flood in my country's engineering practice. This method assumes that the flood peak is completely related to the flood volume in different periods, that is, it is assumed that the flood peak discharge and the flood volume in each period are in line with The same design frequency, and then calculate the design flood design value through the marginal distribution of each hydrological variable. This assumption fails to fully consider the intrinsic correlation between the various feature quantities. [0003] In recent years, with the in-depth development of the Copula functio...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Due to the impact of human activities and changes in the underlying surface, climate change has a greater impact on the design flood calculation of the reservoir. However, the existing methods only focus on the current law of inflow runoff, and there is no literature on the adaptation of design flood to future climate change.

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