Non-consistent design flood calculation method considering influence of flood season dispersity

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of basin design flood derivation, and particularly relates to a non-consistent design flood calculation method considering influence of flood season dispersity. The non-consistent design flood calculation method comprises the following steps of: constructing a flood hyper-quantitative series POT; analyzing seasonal distribution characteristics of the flood in the year according to the over-quantitative series POT of the flood; constructing a POT flood probability distribution model by combining the flood flow magnitude sequence model and the flood intra-year occurrence frequency sequence model according to a flood seasonal test result; selecting the annual population Kt as a potential human activity indirect factor, and establishing a mathematical model between the Kt and statistical parameters of the flood flow magnitude sequence and the flood annual occurrence frequency sequence; and substituting the established statistical parameter mathematical model into the POT flood probability distribution model, and calculating a non-uniform design flood value according to a specified recurrence period of flood control requirements. According tothe non-consistent design flood calculation method, the defect that the flood calculation result designed based on the POT hyper-quantitative sequence is too large or too small is overcome to a certain extent, and support is provided for basin flood risk scheduling and management.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of watershed design flood calculation, and in particular relates to a non-uniform design flood calculation method considering the dispersion influence of flood seasons. Background technique [0002] Traditional design flood calculation techniques usually extract flood samples based on the annual maximum flood peak measured data series. However, from the perspective of simulating flood characteristics, affected by human activities, the measured data series of the annual maximum flood peak in a changing environment can only describe the inconsistency of the interannual variation of the flood magnitude, and it is difficult to reflect the seasonal variation of the flood within the year sex. Due to the influence of human activities, the magnitude and frequency of flood series have significant time-varying characteristics. Among them, the magnitude of flood series may show a trend of gradual change, and the frequ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, from the perspective of simulating flood characteristics, affected by human activities, the measured data series of the annual maximum flood peak in a changing environment can only describe the inconsistency of the interannual variation of the flood magnitude, and it is difficult to reflect the seasonal variation of the flood within the year sex

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