A method and related device for predicting lightning occurrence area and intensity changes

Abstract

This application discloses a method and related device for predicting lightning occurrence areas and intensity changes, relating to the field of meteorological monitoring and early warning. The method includes: identifying and tracking radar volume scan data of a target area to obtain thunderstorms; calculating a preset reflectivity peak height and its changing trend within the thunderstorm range; when the preset reflectivity peak height is rising and the electrification height exceeds a preset height, identifying horizontal grid points within the thunderstorm range as potential lightning activity areas; calculating the spatial distribution of potential lightning activity areas in subsequent time intervals; calculating the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height at each horizontal grid point in subsequent time intervals; determining the lightning activity intensity level at each grid point; establishing a correspondence model between the vertical reflectivity core height and lightning activity intensity; and determining the stage of lightning activity within the potential lightning activity area based on the currently identified core height and its changing trend. This method enables high-precision and high-timeliness near-term lightning warnings.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This application relates to the field of meteorological monitoring and early warning technology, and in particular to a method and related device for predicting the occurrence area and intensity changes of lightning. Background Technology

[0002] Lightning is a significant contributing factor to severe convective weather. Current lightning warnings based on radar data largely rely on the horizontal distribution of radar reflectivity (such as combined reflectivity), largely neglecting information on the vertical distribution of reflectivity, and the warning results are limited to predicting whether lightning activity will occur. Recent research indicates that lightning occurrence is closely related to the internal charge structure of storms, and certain vertical distribution parameters of radar reflectivity (especially the height of its vertical reflectivity core) can reflect the degree of development of the charge structure, serving as key parameters linking storm microphysical processes and charge structure. Therefore, comprehensively utilizing three-dimensional radar reflectivity observation data to extract indicators that effectively characterize the location and intensity of lightning occurrences, and using these indicators to predict the occurrence and development of lightning activity, is crucial for improving the accuracy and effectiveness of warnings and services. Summary of the Invention

[0003] The purpose of this application is to provide a method and related device for predicting the lightning occurrence area and intensity changes, which can solve the problem that existing lightning early warning methods are insufficient in characterizing the internal physical processes of storms.

[0004] To achieve the above objectives, this application provides the following solution.

[0005] In a first aspect, this application provides a method for predicting lightning occurrence area and intensity changes, the method comprising the following steps.

[0006] Acquire radar volume scan data of the target area.

[0007] The radar volume scan data is identified and tracked to obtain the thunderstorm.

[0008] Based on the thunderstorm, the preset reflectivity peak and its changing trend within the thunderstorm range are calculated using adjacent preceding radar reflectivity observation data, and the calculation results are obtained.

[0009] Based on the calculation results, determine whether the preset reflectivity top height is in the process of rising and whether the electrification height exceeds the preset height; if not, return "using adjacent preceding radar reflectivity observation data to calculate the preset reflectivity top height and its changing trend within the thunderstorm range and obtain the calculation results"; if yes, identify the horizontal grid points within the thunderstorm range as potential lightning activity areas.

[0010] The spatial distribution of the potential lightning activity area in subsequent time intervals was calculated using an extrapolation algorithm.

[0011] Based on the spatial distribution of the potential lightning activity area at subsequent time instances, according to the radar data of the previous time instance, combined with an extrapolation algorithm, calculate the distribution of the core height of reflectivity in the vertical direction at each horizontal grid point at subsequent time instances; the core height of reflectivity in the vertical direction includes: the maximum value of reflectivity and its distribution height.

[0012] Based on the distribution of the core height of reflectivity in the vertical direction at each horizontal grid point at subsequent time instances, determine the lightning activity intensity level at each grid point.

[0013] Based on the lightning activity intensity levels at each grid point, establish a corresponding relationship model between the core height of reflectivity in the vertical direction and the lightning activity intensity.

[0014] Based on the relationship model, according to the currently identified core height and its change trend, determine the stage of lightning activity within the potential lightning activity area.

[0015] Optionally, based on the relationship model, according to the currently identified core height and its change trend, determine the stage of lightning activity within the potential lightning activity area, which specifically includes the following content.

[0016] If H > 5 km, it is determined as the "initial stage" and the lightning intensity level is "low".

[0017] If 2 km < H ≤ 5 km and the height shows a downward trend, the lightning intensity level is "strong", and if 2 km < H ≤ 3 km, the lightning intensity level is "the strongest".

[0018] If H ≤ 2 km and the height shows a stable or slowly downward trend, the lightning potential level is "medium", where H is the currently identified core height.

[0019] Optionally, the lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method further includes: superimposing the potential lightning activity area and the corresponding stage of lightning activity onto a geographic information base map to generate a graphical or textual warning product.

[0020] In a second aspect, the present application provides a lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction device, and the lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction device includes the following modules.

[0021] A data acquisition module, configured to acquire radar volume scan data of a target area.

[0022] An identification and tracking module, configured to identify and track the radar volume scan data to obtain thunderstorms.

[0023] A first calculation module, configured to calculate a preset reflectivity top height and its change trend within a thunderstorm range based on the thunderstorm and using adjacent previous radar reflectivity observation data, and obtain a calculation result.

[0024] A judgment module, configured to judge, based on the calculation result, whether the preset reflectivity top height is in an ascending process and the electrification height exceeds a preset height; if not, return "calculate a preset reflectivity top height and its change trend within a thunderstorm range based on the thunderstorm and using adjacent previous radar reflectivity observation data, and obtain a calculation result"; if so, identify horizontal grid points within the thunderstorm range as potential lightning activity areas.

[0025] A second calculation module, configured to calculate the spatial distribution of the potential lightning activity area at subsequent time instances according to an extrapolation algorithm.

[0026] A third calculation module, configured to calculate the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height at subsequent time instances on each horizontal grid point based on the spatial distribution of the potential lightning activity area at subsequent time instances, in combination with the extrapolation algorithm according to radar data of previous time instances; the vertical reflectivity core height includes: the maximum value of the reflectivity and its distribution height.

[0027] A lightning activity intensity level determination module, configured to determine the lightning activity intensity level at each grid point based on the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height at subsequent time instances on each horizontal grid point.

[0028] A relationship model establishment module, configured to establish a corresponding relationship model between the vertical reflectivity core height and the lightning activity intensity based on the lightning activity intensity levels at each grid point.

[0029] A lightning activity stage determination module, configured to determine the stage of the lightning activity within the potential lightning activity area based on the relationship model according to the currently identified core height and its change trend.

[0030] ?Optionally, the lightning activity stage determination module includes the following.

[0031] If H > 5 km, it is determined as the "initial stage" and the lightning intensity level is "low".

[0032] If 2 km < H ≤ 5 km and the height shows a downward trend, the lightning intensity level is "strong", and if 2 km < H ≤ 3 km, the lightning intensity level is "the strongest".

[0033] If H ≤ 2 km and the height shows a stable or slowly downward trend, the lightning potential level is "medium", where H is the currently identified core height.

[0034] Optionally, the lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction device further includes: an early warning product generation module, used to overlay the potential lightning activity area and the corresponding stage of lightning activity onto a geographic information base map to generate a graphical or textual early warning product.

[0035] Thirdly, this application provides a computer device, including: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement the lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method described in any one of the above.

[0036] Fourthly, this application provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements the lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method described above.

[0037] Fifthly, this application provides a computer program product, including a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method described above.

[0038] According to the specific embodiments provided in this application, this application has the following technical effects.

[0039] This application provides a method and related apparatus for predicting lightning occurrence areas and intensity changes. The method includes: acquiring radar volume scan data of a target area; identifying and tracking the radar volume scan data to obtain thunderstorms; and accurately locating the core weather system carriers of lightning occurrence. Identifying and tracking the radar volume scan data to obtain thunderstorms allows for the quantitative acquisition of key vertical structural features of thunderstorm development. Based on the calculation results, it is determined whether the preset reflectivity peak is in an upward process and whether the electrification height exceeds the preset height; if not, the method returns to "using adjacent preceding radar reflectivity observation data to calculate the preset reflectivity peak and its changing trend within the thunderstorm range, obtaining the calculation result"; if so, the horizontal grid points within the thunderstorm range are identified as potential lightning activity areas; and the method accurately filters out spatial ranges with conditions for lightning occurrence. The spatial distribution of the potential lightning activity area in subsequent time intervals is calculated using an extrapolation algorithm; and the method enables dynamic prediction of the future location of lightning areas. Based on the spatial distribution of the potential lightning activity area in subsequent time intervals, and using radar data from previous time intervals, the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height at each horizontal grid point in subsequent time intervals is calculated using an extrapolation algorithm. The vertical reflectivity core height includes the maximum reflectivity value and its distribution height. This allows for refined acquisition of vertical structural evolution information related to lightning intensity. Based on the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height at each horizontal grid point in subsequent time intervals, the lightning activity intensity level at each grid point is determined, enabling a gridded quantitative division of lightning intensity. Based on the lightning activity intensity level at each grid point, a correspondence model between the vertical reflectivity core height and lightning activity intensity is established, constructing a quantitative correlation between thunderstorm structural characteristics and lightning intensity. Based on this relationship model, and according to the currently identified core height and its changing trend, the stage of lightning activity within the potential lightning activity area is determined, accurately identifying the entire process of lightning development, maintenance, and weakening. This application achieves data support, target locking, feature calculation, region discrimination, region extrapolation, core inference, intensity classification, model construction, and stage determination through the above steps in sequence. Overall, it can significantly improve the accuracy of lightning occurrence area identification and the timeliness and precision of lightning intensity change prediction, providing more reliable technical support for lightning early warning and disaster prevention and mitigation. Attached Figure Description

[0040] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application or the prior art, the drawings used in the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of this application. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0041] Figure 1This is an application environment diagram of a lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method according to an embodiment of this application.

[0042] Figure 2 This is a flowchart illustrating a method for predicting lightning occurrence area and intensity changes according to an embodiment of this application.

[0043] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the frequency distribution of cloud flashes excited at different heights by the vertical reflection center, obtained from statistical analysis of the excitation location of cloud flashes in thunderstorms, according to an embodiment of this application.

[0044] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the frequency distribution of (negative ground flashes) excited by the vertical reflection center at different height ranges, based on the statistical analysis of the excitation location of negative ground flashes (the main type of ground flashes) in thunderstorms, as provided in an embodiment of this application.

[0045] Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram of the functional modules of a lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction device provided in an embodiment of this application.

[0046] Figure 6 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of a computer device provided in an embodiment of this application. Detailed Implementation

[0047] The technical solutions of the embodiments of this application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of this application, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of this application, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0048] This application aims to address the problem that existing lightning warning methods are insufficient in representing the internal physical processes of storms, and to provide a method for predicting lightning areas and lightning activity intensity that has clear physical meaning and can be operated in real time.

[0049] The core of this application lies in the discovery that the descent altitude of a key vertical reflectivity core within a storm (typically with reflectivity values ​​between 35-60 dBZ) exhibits a significant temporal correlation with the maturity of the cloud's charge structure and the activity level of lightning. When this core descends from its primary ignition altitude (approximately 7-10 km) to the mid-to-low altitudes (especially 2-5 km), it signifies the maturity stage of the charge structure, a period of high incidence of cloud-to-ground lightning and lightning strikes. Subsequently, as the core further descends or dissipates, lightning activity weakens.

[0050] To make the above-mentioned objectives, features and advantages of this application more apparent and understandable, the application will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0051] The lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method provided in this application embodiment can be applied to, for example... Figure 1 In the application environment shown, terminal 102 communicates with server 104 via a network. A data storage system can store the data that server 104 needs to process. The data storage system can be set up separately, integrated into server 104, or placed in the cloud or on other servers. Terminal 102 can send radar volume scan data of the target area to server 104. After receiving the radar volume scan data of the target area, server 104 identifies and tracks the radar volume scan data to obtain the thunderstorm. Based on the thunderstorm, using adjacent preceding radar reflectivity observation data, it calculates the preset reflectivity peak height and its changing trend within the thunderstorm range to obtain the calculation result. Based on the calculation result, it determines whether the preset reflectivity peak height is in an upward process and whether the lightning initiation height exceeds the preset height. If not, it returns "using adjacent preceding radar reflectivity observation data to calculate the preset reflectivity peak height and its changing trend within the thunderstorm range to obtain the calculation result"; if yes, it identifies the horizontal grid points within the thunderstorm range as potential lightning activity areas. The spatial distribution of the potential lightning activity area in subsequent time intervals is calculated using an extrapolation algorithm. Based on this spatial distribution, and using radar data from previous time intervals, the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height at each horizontal grid point in subsequent time intervals is calculated using the extrapolation algorithm. The vertical reflectivity core height includes the maximum reflectivity value and its distribution height. Based on the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height at each horizontal grid point in subsequent time intervals, the lightning activity intensity level at each grid point is determined. Based on the lightning activity intensity level at each grid point, a correspondence model between the vertical reflectivity core height and the lightning activity intensity is established. Based on this model, and according to the currently identified core height and its changing trend, the stage of lightning activity within the potential lightning activity area is determined. Server 104 can feed back the obtained lightning activity stage to terminal 102. In addition, in some embodiments, the method for predicting lightning occurrence area and intensity changes can also be implemented separately by server 104 or terminal 102. For example, terminal 102 can directly predict lightning occurrence area and intensity changes based on radar volume scan data of the target area, or server 104 can obtain radar volume scan data of the target area from the data storage system and predict lightning occurrence area and intensity changes based on the radar volume scan data of the target area.

[0052] The terminal 102 can be, but is not limited to, various desktop computers, laptops, smartphones, and tablets. The server 104 can be implemented using a standalone server or a server cluster consisting of multiple servers, or it can be a cloud server.

[0053] In one exemplary embodiment, such as Figure 2 As shown, a method for predicting lightning occurrence areas and intensity changes is provided. This method is executed by a computer device, specifically a terminal or server, or both. In this embodiment, the method is applied to... Figure 1 Taking server 104 as an example, the following steps are included.

[0054] S1: Acquire radar volume scan data of the target area.

[0055] S2: Identify and track the radar volume scan data to obtain the thunderstorm.

[0056] S3: Based on the thunderstorm, the preset reflectivity peak and its changing trend within the thunderstorm range are calculated using adjacent preceding radar reflectivity observation data, and the calculation results are obtained.

[0057] S4: Based on the calculation results, determine whether the preset reflectivity top height is in the process of rising and whether the electrification height exceeds the preset height; if not, return "using adjacent preceding radar reflectivity observation data to calculate the preset reflectivity top height and its changing trend within the thunderstorm range and obtain the calculation results"; if yes, identify the horizontal grid points within the thunderstorm range as potential lightning activity areas.

[0058] S5: The spatial distribution of the potential lightning activity area in subsequent time intervals is calculated using an extrapolation algorithm.

[0059] S6: Based on the spatial distribution of the potential lightning activity area in subsequent time intervals, and using radar data from previous time intervals, calculate the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height at each horizontal grid point in subsequent time intervals using an extrapolation algorithm; the vertical reflectivity core height includes: the maximum reflectivity and its distribution height.

[0060] S7: Based on the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height at each horizontal grid point in subsequent time intervals, determine the lightning activity intensity level at each grid point.

[0061] S8: Based on the lightning activity intensity level at each grid point, establish a model relating the vertical reflectivity core height to the lightning activity intensity.

[0062] S9: Based on the relationship model, determine the stage of lightning activity in the potential lightning activity area according to the currently identified core height and its changing trend.

[0063] Implementing the above steps S1 to S9 can significantly improve the accuracy of lightning occurrence area recognition and the timeliness and refinement level of lightning intensity change prediction, providing more reliable technical support for lightning warning and disaster prevention and mitigation.

[0064] As an optional implementation manner, in step S9, based on the relationship model, according to the currently identified core height and its change trend, determine the stage of lightning activity in the potential lightning activity area, which specifically includes the following content.

[0065] If H > 5 km, it is determined as the "initial stage" and the lightning intensity level is "low".

[0066] If 2 km < H ≤ 5 km and the height shows a downward trend, the lightning intensity level is "strong", and if 2 km < H ≤ 3 km, the lightning intensity level is "the strongest".

[0067] If H ≤ 2 km and the height shows a stable or slowly downward trend, the lightning potential level is "medium", where H is the currently identified core height.

[0068] As an optional implementation manner, the lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method further includes: superimposing the potential lightning activity area and the corresponding stage of lightning activity onto a geographic information base map to generate graphical or text-based warning products.

[0069] In specific applications, it includes the following steps.

[0070] (1) Data acquisition and processing: Real-time acquire the radar volume scan data of the target area and identify and track the thunderstorms therein.

[0071] (2) Lightning activity area recognition: For the identified thunderstorms, use the adjacent previous radar reflectivity observation data to calculate the 35 / 40 dBZ reflectivity top height and its change trend within the thunderstorm range. If the top height of this strong reflectivity is in an upward process and reaches or exceeds 7 km in height, the horizontal grid points within the thunderstorm range are identified as the "potential lightning activity area", and the spatial distribution of the "potential lightning activity area" at subsequent time points is calculated according to the extrapolation algorithm.

[0072] (3) Vertical reflectivity core recognition: After identifying the "potential lightning activity area", according to the previous radar data and combined with the extrapolation algorithm, calculate the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height (including the maximum value of the reflectivity and its distribution height. If there are multiple consecutive maximum reflectivity values, the height of the reflectivity core is their average height) at each horizontal grid point at subsequent time points. And judge the lightning activity intensity level at each grid point according to the distribution of these reflectivity cores in the "potential lightning activity area" at subsequent time points.

[0073] (4)Lightning activity intensity level determination: Establish a correspondence relationship model between the core height of vertical reflectivity and the lightning activity intensity. If the reflectivity value of the vertical reflectivity core is above 35 dBZ, determine the stage of the lightning activity in the lightning activity area according to the currently identified core height (H) and its change trend.

[0074] If H > 5 km, it is determined as the "initial stage", and the lightning intensity level is "low".

[0075] If 2 km < H ≤ 5 km, the lightning intensity level is "strong", and if 2 km < H ≤ 3 km, the lightning intensity level is "the strongest".

[0076] If H ≤ 2 km, the lightning potential level is "medium".

[0077] (5)Early warning product generation and output: Superimpose the predicted lightning activity area, the lightning activity intensity level in the corresponding area, and the effective time period and other information on the geographical information base map to generate graphical or text-based early warning products for users.

[0078] In summary, the present application has the following beneficial effects.

[0079] 1. Clear physical mechanism: Directly use the core height of vertical reflectivity, which is closely related to the maturity of the charge structure, as a prediction index, which is more targeted than simply using environmental parameters or the horizontal distribution of strong echoes.

[0080] 2. Sufficient prediction lead time: By identifying the descent process of the core from high altitude, an early warning can be issued before the lightning enters the explosive growth (mature stage), providing an effective lead time.

[0081] 3. Distinguish activity types: The method implies an understanding of the main occurrence height of lightning, and the prediction area can cover different types of lightning activities.

[0082] 4. Strong real-time performance and high degree of automation: Completely based on real-time radar data, it can be integrated into the existing business system to achieve automated operation.

[0083] In another exemplary embodiment of this application, based on the analysis of radar observation data and three-dimensional lightning location data, the reflectivity core values ​​in the vertical direction at the origin of most (approximately 84.9%) cloud-to-cloud lightning events are between 35 and 60 dBZ, while the reflectivity values ​​at the height of the vertical reflectivity core at the origin of most (approximately 87.7%) ground-to-ground lightning events are between 40 and 60 dBZ. Statistical analysis of the height distribution of these reflectivity cores shows that when these lightning events occur, the vertical reflectivity cores are generally distributed at heights below 7 km. Moreover, as the height of the vertical reflectivity core changes from top to bottom, the frequency of cloud-to-cloud lightning and negative ground-to-ground lightning (the main type of ground-to-ground lightning) excited in the corresponding gridded environment shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing (e.g., ...). Figure 3 and Figure 4 As shown, where I P The peak current intensity of the first return stroke of a ground lightning strike is indicated by the bar chart (the top number of the bar chart represents the corresponding lightning frequency). The main lightning frequency is concentrated when the vertical reflectivity core is below 5 km in height, while the peak frequency occurs when the vertical reflectivity core is between 2 and 3 km in height. Although the lightning frequency decreases when the vertical reflectivity core drops below 2 km, the lightning frequency under this condition is still significantly higher than the lightning frequency when the vertical reflectivity core is above 5 km.

[0084] This application also provides an application scenario in which the above-mentioned method for predicting lightning occurrence areas and intensity changes is applied. Specifically, the lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method provided in this embodiment can be applied to the complete operational process of meteorological radar monitoring and severe convective weather early warning, and is particularly suitable for industrial and public safety application scenarios such as short-term lightning forecasting, power grid lightning protection safety, aviation flight meteorological support, forest fire early warning, and urban flooding and severe convective disaster linkage early warning. In the complete operation process of the actual operational system, it typically includes the following three main stages: A. Radar data acquisition and preprocessing stage; real-time acquisition of three-dimensional radar volume scan data through regional meteorological radar network, format parsing, quality control, clutter filtering, coordinate transformation and mosaic processing of raw data to form a standardized radar reflectivity data volume covering the target monitoring area, providing a basic data source for subsequent thunderstorm identification and lightning prediction. B. Thunderstorm Identification and Lightning Occurrence Area and Intensity Change Prediction Stage; The method described in this application is embedded as the core processing unit, specifically executing the following steps: S1: Acquire preprocessed radar volume scan data of the target area; S2: Perform thunderstorm identification and tracking on the radar volume scan data to obtain stable individual thunderstorms and thunderstorm clusters; S3: Based on the identified thunderstorms, use radar reflectivity observation data from adjacent preceding moments to calculate the top height corresponding to a preset reflectivity threshold within the thunderstorm range and its changing trend over time, obtaining the calculation result; S4: Determine whether the preset reflectivity top height is in an upward process based on the calculation result, and whether the electrification-related height exceeds the preset threshold; if not, continue iteratively calculating the reflectivity top height and its changing trend; if satisfied, mark the horizontal grid points within the thunderstorm range as potential lightning activity areas; S 5. Extrapolation algorithm is used to perform spatiotemporal extrapolation on potential lightning activity areas to obtain spatial distribution prediction results for multiple future time periods; S6. Combining previous time-series radar observation data with the extrapolation algorithm, the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height at each horizontal grid point in subsequent time periods is further calculated, where the reflectivity core includes the maximum reflectivity and its corresponding height; S7. Based on the future distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height, the lightning activity intensity level corresponding to each horizontal grid point is determined; S8. Based on the lightning intensity level and corresponding reflectivity core height of different grid points, a correspondence model between the vertical reflectivity core height and lightning activity intensity is established and updated; S9. Using this relationship model, combined with the currently identified reflectivity core height and its changing trend, the stage of lightning activity within the potential lightning activity area is determined. C. Early Warning Issuance and Business Application Stage: The prediction results of the above-mentioned lightning occurrence area, intensity level, development stage and future movement trend are output to business terminals such as lightning early warning platform, power grid dispatch system, air traffic control system, and emergency management platform. Combined with geographic information system for visualization display, and automatically generated lightning early warning information, risk level prompts and protection suggestions according to preset thresholds, to support the safe operation and decision-making of related industries.

[0085] Based on the same inventive concept, this application also provides a lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction device for implementing the above-mentioned method for predicting lightning occurrence area and intensity change. The solution provided by this device is similar to the solution described in the above-described method. Therefore, the specific limitations of one or more embodiments of the lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction device provided below can be found in the limitations of the lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method above, and will not be repeated here.

[0086] In one exemplary embodiment, such as Figure 5 As shown, a device for predicting lightning occurrence area and intensity changes is provided, which includes the following modules.

[0087] The data acquisition module is used to acquire radar volume scan data of the target area.

[0088] The identification and tracking module is used to identify and track the radar volume scan data to obtain the thunderstorm.

[0089] The first calculation module is used to calculate the preset reflectivity peak and its changing trend within the thunderstorm range based on the thunderstorm and using adjacent preceding radar reflectivity observation data, and obtain the calculation results.

[0090] The judgment module is used to determine, based on the calculation results, whether the preset reflectivity top height is in the process of rising and whether the electrification height exceeds the preset height; if not, it returns "using adjacent preceding radar reflectivity observation data to calculate the preset reflectivity top height and its changing trend within the thunderstorm range and obtain the calculation result"; if yes, it identifies the horizontal grid points within the thunderstorm range as potential lightning activity areas.

[0091] The second calculation module is used to calculate the spatial distribution of the potential lightning activity area in subsequent time intervals based on the extrapolation algorithm.

[0092] The third calculation module is used to calculate the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height at each horizontal grid point in subsequent time intervals based on the spatial distribution of the potential lightning activity area in subsequent time intervals, according to radar data from previous time intervals and combined with an extrapolation algorithm; the vertical reflectivity core height includes: the maximum reflectivity and its distribution height.

[0093] The lightning activity intensity level determination module is used to determine the lightning activity intensity level of each grid point based on the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height of each horizontal grid point in subsequent time intervals.

[0094] A relationship model establishment module, configured to establish a corresponding relationship model between the vertical reflectivity core height and the lightning activity intensity based on the lightning activity intensity levels at each grid point.

[0095] A lightning activity stage determination module, configured to determine the stage of the lightning activity in the potential lightning activity area based on the relationship model, according to the currently identified core height and its change trend.

[0096] As an optional implementation manner, the lightning activity stage determination module includes the following.

[0097] If H > 5 km, it is determined as the "initial stage", and the lightning intensity level is "low".

[0098] If 2 km < H ≤ 5 km and the height shows a downward trend, the lightning intensity level is "strong", and if 2 km < H ≤ 3 km, the lightning intensity level is "the strongest".

[0099] If H ≤ 2 km and the height shows a stable or slowly decreasing trend, the lightning potential level is "medium", where H is the currently identified core height.

[0100] As an optional implementation manner, the lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction device further includes: a warning product generation module, configured to superimpose the potential lightning activity area and the corresponding stage of the lightning activity on a geographic information base map to generate a graphical or textual warning product.

[0101] In an exemplary embodiment, a computer device is provided. The computer device may be a server or a terminal, and its internal structure diagram may be as Figure 6 shown. The computer device includes a processor, a memory, an input / output interface (Input / Output, abbreviated as I / O), and a communication interface. Among them, the processor, the memory, and the input / output interface are connected through a system bus, and the communication interface is connected to the system bus through the input / output interface. Among them, the processor of the computer device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system, a computer program, and a database. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and the computer program in the non-volatile storage medium. The database of the computer device is used to store the radar volume scan data of the target area. The input / output interface of the computer device is used to exchange information between the processor and external devices. The communication interface of the computer device is used to communicate with an external terminal through a network connection. When the computer program is executed by the processor, it implements a method for predicting the lightning occurrence area and intensity change.

[0102] Those skilled in the art can understand, Figure 6The structures shown are merely block diagrams of some structures related to the present application and do not constitute a limitation on the computer device to which the present application is applied. Specific computer devices may include more or fewer components than shown in the figures, or combine certain components, or have different component arrangements. In an exemplary embodiment, a computer device is provided, including a memory and a processor. The memory stores a computer program, and the processor executes the computer program to implement the steps in the above-described method embodiments.

[0103] In one exemplary embodiment, a computer-readable storage medium is provided storing a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps in the above-described method embodiments.

[0104] In one exemplary embodiment, a computer program product is provided, including a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps in the above-described method embodiments.

[0105] It should be noted that the user information (including but not limited to user device information, user personal information, etc.) and data (including but not limited to data used for analysis, data stored, data displayed, etc.) involved in this application are all information and data authorized by the user or fully authorized by all parties. Moreover, the collection, use and processing of the relevant data are carried out in compliance with the relevant data protection laws and policies of the country where the location is located, and with the authorization granted by the owner of the corresponding device.

[0106] Those skilled in the art will understand that all or part of the processes in the above embodiments can be implemented by a computer program instructing related hardware. The computer program can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium. When executed, the computer program can include the processes of the embodiments described above. Any references to memory, databases, or other media used in the embodiments provided in this application can include at least one of non-volatile and volatile memory. Non-volatile memory can include read-only memory (ROM), magnetic tape, floppy disk, flash memory, optical memory, high-density embedded non-volatile memory, resistive random access memory (ReRAM), magnetic random access memory (MRAM), ferroelectric random access memory (FRAM), phase change memory (PCM), graphene memory, etc. Volatile memory can include random access memory (RAM) or external cache memory, etc. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM can take many forms, such as Static Random Access Memory (SRAM) or Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM).

[0107] The databases involved in the embodiments provided in this application may include at least one type of relational database and non-relational database. Non-relational databases may include, but are not limited to, blockchain-based distributed databases. The processors involved in the embodiments provided in this application may be general-purpose processors, central processing units, graphics processing units, digital signal processors, programmable logic devices, quantum computing-based data processing logic devices, etc., and are not limited to these.

[0108] The technical features of the above embodiments can be combined in any way. For the sake of brevity, not all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are described. However, as long as there is no contradiction in the combination of these technical features, they should be considered to be within the scope of this specification.

[0109] This document uses specific examples to illustrate the principles and implementation methods of this application. The descriptions of the above embodiments are only for the purpose of helping to understand the methods and core ideas of this application. Furthermore, those skilled in the art will recognize that, based on the ideas of this application, there will be changes in the specific implementation methods and application scope. Therefore, the content of this specification should not be construed as a limitation of this application.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the location and intensity changes of lightning occurrence, characterized in that, The lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method includes: Obtain the radar volume scan data of the target area; Identify and track the radar volume scan data to obtain thunderstorms; Based on the thunderstorms, use adjacent previous radar reflectivity observation data to calculate the preset reflectivity top height and its change trend within the thunderstorm range, and obtain the calculation result; Based on the calculation result, judge whether the preset reflectivity top height is in an upward process and the charging height exceeds the preset height; if not, return to "use adjacent previous radar reflectivity observation data to calculate the preset reflectivity top height and its change trend within the thunderstorm range, and obtain the calculation result"; if so, identify the horizontal grid points within the thunderstorm range as potential lightning activity areas; Calculate the spatial distribution of the potential lightning activity area at subsequent time steps according to the extrapolation algorithm; Based on the spatial distribution of the potential lightning activity area at subsequent time steps, combine the previous time step radar data and use the extrapolation algorithm to calculate the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height at each horizontal grid point at subsequent time steps; the vertical reflectivity core height includes: the maximum value of the reflectivity and its distribution height; Based on the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height at each horizontal grid point at subsequent time steps, determine the lightning activity intensity level at each grid point; Based on the lightning activity intensity levels at each grid point, establish a correspondence relationship model between the vertical reflectivity core height and the lightning activity intensity; Based on the relationship model, judge the stage of the lightning activity within the potential lightning activity area according to the currently identified core height and its change trend.

2. The method for predicting lightning occurrence area and intensity changes according to claim 1, characterized in that, Based on the relationship model, judge the stage of the lightning activity within the potential lightning activity area according to the currently identified core height and its change trend, specifically including: If H > 5 km, judge as the "initial stage", and the lightning intensity level is "low"; If 2 km < H ≤ 5 km and the height shows a downward trend, the lightning intensity level is "strong", and if 2 km < H ≤ 3 km, the lightning intensity level is "the strongest"; If H ≤ 2 km and the height shows a stable or slow downward trend, the lightning potential level is "medium", where H is the currently identified core height.

3. The method for predicting lightning occurrence area and intensity changes according to claim 1, characterized in that, The lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method further includes: Overlay the potential lightning activity area and the corresponding stage of the lightning activity on the geographic information base map to generate a graphical or text-based warning product.

4. A device for predicting the location and intensity changes of lightning occurrence, characterized in that, The lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction device includes: A data acquisition module for obtaining the radar volume scan data of the target area; An identification and tracking module for identifying and tracking the radar volume scan data to obtain thunderstorms; A first calculation module for calculating the preset reflectivity top height and its change trend within the thunderstorm range based on the thunderstorms and using adjacent previous radar reflectivity observation data to obtain the calculation result; A judgment module, configured to judge, based on the calculation result, whether the preset reflectivity top height is in an ascending process and the electrification height exceeds a preset height; if not, return "Use the adjacent previous radar reflectivity observation data to calculate the preset reflectivity top height and its change trend within the thunderstorm range to obtain a calculation result"; if so, identify the horizontal grid points within the thunderstorm range as potential lightning activity areas; A second calculation module, configured to calculate the spatial distribution of the potential lightning activity area at subsequent time instances according to an extrapolation algorithm; A third calculation module, configured to, based on the spatial distribution of the potential lightning activity area at subsequent time instances, calculate the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height at each horizontal grid point at subsequent time instances according to the radar data of the previous time instance in combination with the extrapolation algorithm; the vertical reflectivity core height includes: the maximum value of the reflectivity and its distribution height; A lightning activity intensity level determination module, configured to determine the lightning activity intensity level at each grid point based on the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height at each horizontal grid point at subsequent time instances; A relationship model establishment module, configured to establish a correspondence relationship model between the vertical reflectivity core height and the lightning activity intensity based on the lightning activity intensity levels at each grid point; A lightning activity stage determination module, configured to determine the stage of the lightning activity within the potential lightning activity area based on the relationship model according to the currently identified core height and its change trend; 5. The lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction device according to claim 4, characterized in that, The lightning activity stage determination module includes: If H > 5 km, it is determined as the "initial stage", and the lightning intensity level is "low"; If 2 km < H ≤ 5 km and the height shows a downward trend, the lightning intensity level is "strong", and if 2 km < H ≤ 3 km, the lightning intensity level is "the strongest"; If H ≤ 2 km and the height shows a stable or slowly downward trend, the lightning potential level is "medium", where H is the currently identified core height.

6. The lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction device according to claim 4, characterized in that, The lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction device further includes: An early warning product generation module, configured to superimpose the potential lightning activity area and the corresponding stage of the lightning activity on a geographic information base map to generate a graphical or text-based early warning product.

7. A computer device, comprising: A memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and capable of running on the processor, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement the lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method according to any one of claims 1-3.

8. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that, When the computer program is executed by the processor, it implements the lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method according to any one of claims 1-3.

9. A computer program product, comprising a computer program, characterized in that, When the computer program is executed by the processor, it implements the lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method according to any one of claims 1-3.

Images