TLE forecasting precision evaluation method for star chain constellation satellite
By segmenting and calculating the deviations of Starlink satellite ephemeris data, the problems of short time range and lack of distinction between operational phases in existing technologies have been solved. This enables long-term accurate assessment and refined analysis of Starlink satellites, improving the accuracy of assessment results and ground monitoring support capabilities.
Patent Information
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2025-12-19
- Publication Date
- 2026-05-15
AI Technical Summary
In existing technologies, the Starlink satellite TLE forecast accuracy assessment method has a short coverage time range and does not take into account the differences in different operational phases, resulting in insufficient assessment accuracy and making it difficult to meet the needs of refined management and long-term orbit monitoring of large constellations.
By acquiring Starlink satellite ephemeris data and its corresponding TLE data, the ephemeris data is divided based on position variance to determine critical epoch times. The data is then divided into two segments for forecasting and deviation calculation, enabling differentiated accuracy analysis of the orbital ascent, orbit maintenance, and active descent phases.
It enables long-term precision assessment of Starlink satellites, extending the coverage from a single orbital period to three days, improving the precision and accuracy of the assessment results, and providing more accurate orbital prediction error assessment for ground tracking and monitoring.
Smart Images
Figure CN122045643A_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] This invention relates to the field of satellite orbit determination technology, and in particular to a method for evaluating the accuracy of TLE predictions for Starlink constellation satellites. Background Technology
[0002] With the rapid development of low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite internet, large constellation systems, represented by Starlink, have become an important part of global satellite deployment. These constellations are typically deployed in LEO, characterized by a large number of satellites, complex orbital configurations, and diverse operational phases. To ensure that ground-based telemetry and control systems can effectively track and monitor these satellites and provide data support for orbit maintenance and collision avoidance operations, accurate assessment of Starlink satellite orbit prediction accuracy is crucial. Currently, the industry generally uses two-line orbital elements (TLE) as the baseline data for orbit prediction. However, the prediction error characteristics of TLE directly affect the reliability of downstream applications. Therefore, establishing a scientific method for assessing TLE prediction accuracy has become a critical technical problem that urgently needs to be solved in the field of satellite orbit determination.
[0003] In existing technologies, the evaluation of TLE forecast accuracy mainly employs the short-term local fitting method. Specifically, to obtain the one-day error of the TLE forecast, the TLE data to be evaluated is propagated forward one day. Several sampling points within one orbital period are selected near the forecast endpoint. Orbit fitting is performed using a weighted method based on ephemeris update times to construct a reference orbit for the Starlink satellites. Subsequently, the TLE forecast orbit and the reference orbit are transformed to a unified orbital coordinate system (usually the UVW coordinate system), and the positional deviations between each sampling point are calculated. The root mean square error (RMS) is then used to quantify the TLE forecast accuracy. This method can, to a certain extent, achieve a quantitative evaluation of TLE error, providing a basic tool for simple orbital analysis.
[0004] However, the aforementioned existing technologies have two significant limitations. First, the assessment covers a limited time frame, focusing only on error performance within a single orbital period near the forecast endpoint. This only reflects accuracy characteristics within a few hours and cannot effectively characterize the cumulative error effect of TLE over longer forecast arcs. Such short-term assessment results are insufficient to support continuous tracking and monitoring by ground-based telemetry and control systems, nor can they meet the needs for comparative analysis with long-term measured observation data. Second, they do not consider the differences in orbital dynamics of Starlink satellites at different operational stages. Processing TLE data from different stages using a uniform model results in drastically different orbital characteristics at each stage. Using a single assessment model inevitably leads to coarse accuracy analysis results and makes it difficult to reveal the unique error patterns of each stage.
[0005] In summary, the shortcomings of existing Starlink satellite TLE forecast accuracy assessment methods in terms of assessment duration and stage differentiation severely restrict the refinement and practicality of assessment results, making it difficult to meet the actual needs of refined management and long-term orbit monitoring of large constellations. Summary of the Invention
[0006] The technical problem this invention aims to solve is to address the shortcomings of existing technologies, specifically the problem that existing Starlink satellite TLE forecast accuracy assessment methods have short coverage time ranges and fail to consider differences in different operational phases, leading to insufficient assessment accuracy. Specifically, this invention provides a TLE forecast accuracy assessment method for Starlink constellation satellites, as detailed below: 1) In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for evaluating the accuracy of TLE (Time Leakage) predictions for Starlink constellation satellites, the specific technical solution of which is as follows: S1, acquire ephemeris data of Starlink satellites and their corresponding TLE data; S2, determine the position variance based on the TLE data, and divide the ephemeris data based on the position variance to obtain the critical epoch time, the first segment of ephemeris data and the second segment of ephemeris data; S3, perform data forecasting processing on the TLE data using a preset epoch time sequence to obtain TLE forecasting results; divide the TLE forecasting results based on the critical epoch time to obtain a first segment of TLE forecasting data and a second segment of TLE forecasting data; S4, determine the first segment position deviation based on the first segment ephemeris data and the first segment TLE forecast data, and determine the second segment position deviation based on the second segment ephemeris data and the second segment TLE forecast data; S5. Determine the TLE prediction accuracy assessment result of Starlink satellites based on the first segment position deviation and the second segment position deviation.
[0007] The beneficial effects of the TLE prediction accuracy evaluation method for Starlink constellation satellites provided by this invention are as follows: Based on position variance threshold detection, long-span ephemeris data is adaptively divided into two segments before and after the critical epoch. Correspondingly, the TLE prediction results of the preset epoch time sequence are evaluated in segments, realizing differentiated accuracy analysis of satellites in different operational phases such as orbital ascent, orbit maintenance, and active descent. This overcomes the problems of short time range caused by existing technologies that only cover a single orbital period, as well as insufficient evaluation accuracy caused by the lack of segmentation and differentiation of operational phases. It achieves a dual improvement in time coverage and evaluation precision, providing more accurate orbit prediction error evaluation results for ground tracking and monitoring.
[0008] 2) In a second aspect, the present invention also provides a TLE forecast accuracy evaluation system for Starlink constellation satellites, the specific technical solution of which is as follows: a data acquisition module, a threshold detection module, an orbit forecast module, a deviation calculation module, and an accuracy evaluation module; The data acquisition module is used to acquire the ephemeris data of Starlink satellites and their corresponding TLE data; The threshold detection module is used to determine the position variance based on the TLE data, and divide the ephemeris data based on the position variance to obtain the critical epoch time, the first segment of ephemeris data and the second segment of ephemeris data. The orbit prediction module is used to perform data prediction processing on the TLE data using a preset epoch time sequence to obtain TLE prediction results; and to divide the TLE prediction results based on the critical epoch time to obtain a first segment of TLE prediction data and a second segment of TLE prediction data. The deviation calculation module is used to determine the first segment position deviation based on the first segment of ephemeris data and the first segment of TLE forecast data, and to determine the second segment position deviation based on the second segment of ephemeris data and the second segment of TLE forecast data. The accuracy assessment module is used to determine the TLE prediction accuracy assessment result of Starlink satellites based on the first segment position deviation and the second segment position deviation.
[0009] 3) In a third aspect, the present invention also provides a computer device, the computer device including a processor coupled to a memory, the memory storing at least one computer program, the at least one computer program being loaded and executed by the processor to enable the computer device to implement any of the above methods.
[0010] 4) In a fourth aspect, the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium storing at least one computer program, which is loaded and executed by a processor to enable a computer to implement any of the above methods.
[0011] It should be noted that the beneficial effects of the technical solutions of the second to fourth aspects of the present invention and their corresponding possible implementations can be found in the above description of the technical effects of the first aspect and its corresponding possible implementations, and will not be repeated here. Attached Figure Description
[0012] Other features, objects, and advantages of the invention will become more apparent from the following detailed description of non-limiting embodiments with reference to the accompanying drawings: Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating the steps of a TLE forecast accuracy evaluation method for Starlink constellation satellites according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the UVW direction position variance of satellite number 44719 as a function of time in an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the UVW direction position variance of satellite number 56118 as a function of time in an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the UVW direction position variance over time for temporary satellite number 799501899 in this embodiment of the invention. Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram of the average error distribution of 2049 targets in the orbital ascent stage according to an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 6 This is a schematic diagram of the UVW direction position variance of satellite number 44714 as a function of time in an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 7 This is a schematic diagram of the UVW direction position variance of satellite number 64437 as a function of time in an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 8 This is a schematic diagram of the average error distribution of 4222 orbit maintenance segment targets in an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 9 This is a schematic diagram of the UVW direction position variance of satellite number 44716 as a function of time in an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 10 This is a schematic diagram of the UVW direction position variance of satellite number 65258 as a function of time in an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 11 This is a schematic diagram of the average error distribution of 1967 active descent targets in an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 12 This is a structural block diagram of a computer device according to an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation
[0013] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the present invention clearer, the embodiments of the present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
[0014] like Figure 1 As shown in the figure, a method for evaluating the TLE prediction accuracy of Starlink constellation satellites according to an embodiment of the present invention includes the following steps: S1, acquire ephemeris data of Starlink satellites and their corresponding TLE data; S2, determine the position variance based on the TLE data, divide the ephemeris data based on the position variance, and obtain the critical epoch time, the first segment of ephemeris data and the second segment of ephemeris data; S3, perform data forecasting processing on the TLE data using a preset epoch time sequence to obtain the TLE forecast results; divide the TLE forecast results based on the critical epoch time to obtain the first segment of TLE forecast data and the second segment of TLE forecast data; S4, determine the first segment position deviation based on the first segment ephemeris data and the first segment TLE forecast data, and determine the second segment position deviation based on the second segment ephemeris data and the second segment TLE forecast data; S5, based on the first segment position deviation and the second segment position deviation, determines the TLE prediction accuracy assessment results of Starlink satellites.
[0015] The beneficial effects of the TLE prediction accuracy evaluation method for Starlink constellation satellites provided by this invention are as follows: Based on position variance threshold detection, long-span ephemeris data is adaptively divided into two segments before and after the critical epoch. Correspondingly, the TLE prediction results of the preset epoch time sequence are evaluated in segments, realizing differentiated accuracy analysis of satellites in different operational phases such as orbital ascent, orbit maintenance, and active descent. This overcomes the problems of short time range caused by existing technologies that only cover a single orbital period, as well as insufficient evaluation accuracy caused by the lack of segmentation and differentiation of operational phases. It achieves a dual improvement in time coverage and evaluation precision, providing more accurate orbit prediction error evaluation results for ground tracking and monitoring.
[0016] It should be noted that, for ease of understanding, the technical terms used in this solution will be explained one by one, and will not be repeated hereafter: Starlink satellites: refers to the large-scale low-Earth orbit satellite constellation launched by SpaceX.
[0017] Ephemeral data This refers to the precise ephemeris data of Starlink satellites from MITC (Modified International Telecommunications Corporation). It contains the satellite's status parameters for the next three days from the update time, including position, velocity, and covariance. The time interval between adjacent status parameters is one ten-thousandth of a day. The ephemeris data is a collection of ephemeris data from different satellites at different times, totaling approximately 8,000 satellites, updated every eight hours (this time is the update time). It includes the ephemeris data for each satellite for the first preset time span (3 days in this scheme) from the update time. In this scheme, the ephemeris data... By iterating through the ephemeris file The ephemeris file name is obtained from the file name. ,in, For ephemeris list file Number of ephemeris filenames. Ephemeris data. It is a two-dimensional matrix.
[0018] Update time: refers to the ephemeris update time, which is usually the third update time of the day in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) in the comments section at the beginning of the MITC precise ephemeris file.
[0019] Ephemeris List File This refers to SpaceX calculating a MITC (Precisely Authenticated Ephemeris Code) file for each Starlink satellite, containing a first predetermined time span (3 days in this scheme), and updating it every eight hours. The ephemeris list file is a plain text file that records the filename of the most recently updated MITC ephemeris, with one filename per line, used to obtain the latest ephemeris data.
[0020] TLE Data This refers to two rows of element data, containing element information at the time of release and the physical parameters used for orbit prediction. It is obtained through prediction using the Simplified General Perturbation 4 (SGP4) model, and sources include CelesTrak, HeavensAbove, and SpaceTrack. (TLE data) The simplified general perturbation 4 (SGP4) model is an orbit prediction model applicable to low Earth orbit satellites. In this plan, the first preset time span is three days, and the second preset time span is one day.
[0021] First target date: refers to the date of the update, i.e., the date the ephemeris data was updated.
[0022] Second target date: refers to the date within the second preset time span before the first target date, that is, the day before the date the ephemeris data is updated.
[0023] First TLE Data : Refers to the TLE data of Starlink satellites on the first target date, that is, the TLE data of Starlink satellites on the ephemeris data update date.
[0024] Second TLE data : Refers to the TLE data of Starlink satellites on the second target date, that is, the TLE data of Starlink satellites one day before the ephemeris data update date.
[0025] Location variance This refers to the average of the positional deviations between two orbital data points, used to measure orbital uncertainty. In this scheme, the second TLE data undergoes data forecasting processing for a second preset time span (1 day) to obtain the target date TLE forecast data. This is calculated by averaging the positional deviations between the first TLE data and the target date TLE forecast data, i.e., the second TLE data... Data obtained one day after forecasting and the first TLE data The positional deviations between the two data points are calculated by averaging them. Specifically, the positional deviations between the Starlink satellite's TLE data obtained one day after forecasting the data from the day before the ephemeris data update date and the Starlink satellite's TLE data on the day of the ephemeris data update date are calculated by averaging them.
[0026] Data forecasting processing: This refers to the process of extrapolating the orbits of TLE data based on the Simplified General Perturbation 4 (SGP4) model. The input is TLE data, and the output is a two-dimensional matrix of the same type as the ephemeris data, containing position and velocity information.
[0027] Preset epoch time sequence This refers to the timestamp sequence contained in the ephemeris file, spanning three days, with all timestamps using Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). It should be noted that in this scheme, due to the time span of the ephemeris file, the time span in the preset epoch time sequence is consistent with the first preset time span, both being 3 days; that is, the timestamp span contained in the preset epoch time sequence is 3 days.
[0028] Critical epoch time This refers to the moment when the position variance in the ephemeris data first exceeds a set condition. It's used to divide a three-day ephemeris data period into two segments: the first segment and the segment before and after the second segment. In this scheme, the set condition specifically refers to the numerical comparison between the position variance and the ephemeris position variance results. The ephemeris position variance result is obtained by calculating the position variance of the ephemeris data. It should be noted that the timestamp sequence of the preset epoch time series contains one and only one critical epoch time.
[0029] First section of ephemeris data : refers to the starting time from the ephemeris data At the critical epoch Ephemeral data between them.
[0030] Second section of ephemeris data : refers to the time from the critical epoch End time in ephemeris data Ephemeral data between them.
[0031] First segment of TLE forecast data : refers to the starting time from the ephemeris data At the critical epoch The TLE forecast results between.
[0032] Second segment of TLE forecast data : refers to the time from the critical epoch End time in ephemeris data The TLE forecast results between.
[0033] The first and second TLE forecast data refer to the second time period forecast results extrapolated from the first TLE data. Specifically, in this scheme, the TLE forecast results obtained by processing the TLE data from the ephemeris update date over three days, and then dividing it into segments based on the critical epoch, from the critical epoch to the end time of the ephemeris data, are used as the first and second TLE forecast data. These are then used to calculate the evaluation results of the second segment of ephemeris data in the forecast accuracy assessment process.
[0034] The second TLE forecast data refers to the forecast result for the second time period obtained by extrapolating the second TLE data. Specifically, in this scheme, the TLE forecast result from the critical epoch (the day before the ephemeris update date) to the end time of the ephemeris data is obtained after three days of data forecast processing, segmented by the critical epoch. This second TLE forecast data is used to calculate the evaluation result of the second ephemeris data in the forecast accuracy assessment process.
[0035] Positional deviation : Refers to the difference between the position vectors of corresponding times in the ephemeris data and the TLE forecast data under the same coordinate system.
[0036] First positional deviation : refers to the epoch time sequence The start time in At the critical epoch The positional deviation corresponding to the time intervals between them is represented as follows: In this scheme, the first segment's positional deviation... Calculated based on the first ephemeris data and the first TLE forecast data.
[0037] Second positional deviation : refers to the epoch time sequence Intermediate epoch time By the end time The positional deviation corresponding to the time intervals between them is represented as follows: The second segment's positional deviation Calculated based on the second segment of ephemeris data and the second segment of TLE forecast data. Further, the second segment's positional deviation... It was calculated based on the second ephemeris data, the first and second TLE forecast data, and the second and third TLE forecast data.
[0038] The accuracy assessment results of the TLE forecast are obtained by taking the root mean square error of the two positional deviations. The root mean square error represents a statistical measure of the degree of deviation between the predicted orbit and the reference orbit.
[0039] The Starlink satellite lifecycle is divided into three phases: orbit insertion and ascent, orbit maintenance, and active orbit descent. This scheme supports independent forecast accuracy assessment processes for each operational phase, and the overall accuracy is determined by combining the TLE (Traffic End-of-Life) forecast accuracy assessment results from each phase.
[0040] Orbit insertion and ascent phase: This refers to the process of Starlink satellites maneuvering towards their operational orbital altitude after separation from the launch vehicle. In this plan, the orbital altitude will be... and The Starlink satellite orbit data was selected as the ascent phase, and the corresponding ephemeris data for this phase was marked as follows: .
[0041] Orbit maintenance phase: This refers to the periodic station maintenance phase after Starlink satellites reach their operational orbits. In this plan, the orbital altitude... and The Starlink satellite orbit data was filtered into the orbit maintenance phase, and the corresponding ephemeris data for this phase was marked as... .
[0042] Active deorbit phase: This refers to the process by which Starlink satellites, upon reaching the end of their service life or experiencing a malfunction, actively maneuver to rapidly deorbit using low-thrust engines. In this scheme, the orbital altitude... and The Starlink satellite orbit data was selected as the active descent phase, and the corresponding ephemeris data for this phase was marked as... .
[0043] It should be noted that, The orbital height is expressed in units of 1000 meters. , as well as To set a threshold, To Find the time derivative. To Find the time derivative. Since Starlink satellites use argon-electric propulsion, the thrust is small, and the change in orbital altitude is relatively slow. Therefore, the unit can be standardized to [missing value]. ; The altitude derivative with respect to time is the change in orbital altitude of Starlink satellites per second, and the unit can be standardized as follows: Orbital altitude refers to the average distance of Starlink satellites relative to the Earth's surface. The rate of change of orbital altitude is the first derivative of orbital altitude with respect to time, representing the amount of orbital altitude change per second for Starlink satellites. (Setting a threshold) as well as These are experience values set to differentiate between different stages, with units of... as well as .
[0044] It should be noted that the ephemeris data (MITC ephemeris position state) is expressed in the Earth Mean Equator 2000.0 (EME2000) reference frame. The TLE predicted orbit (referring to the TLE predicted data obtained after data prediction processing; this scheme includes TLE prediction results and target date TLE prediction data) is originally expressed in the True Equatorial Mean Vernal Equinox (TEME) coordinate system and requires coordinate transformation to be unified with the ephemeris data into the same reference frame for comparison. Since this scheme does not improve the coordinate transformation process and does not emphasize or explain it, and since the coordinate transformation process is existing technology, only one implementation method of the transformation process is briefly described below. The conversion process is as follows: The TLE predicted orbit is expressed in the TME coordinate system. By rotating it around the Z-axis by the Greenwich Mean Sidereal Time (GMST) angle, the TME coordinates are converted to the TIRS (Earth Intermediate Reference System) coordinate system. Then, the Greenwich True Sidereal Time (GAST), the nutation matrix N(t), and the precession matrix P(t) are used in sequence to convert it to the EME2000 coordinate system, and the coordinates of the TLE predicted orbit in the EME2000 coordinate system are obtained, which are used for subsequent calculations with ephemeris data.
[0045] In another embodiment of this solution, S1 is specifically implemented as follows: Obtain the ephemeris list files of Starlink satellites from the data interface provided by SpaceX. Ephemeris inventory file It is a plain text file used to locate and retrieve the latest Starlink satellite MITC precise ephemeris data. The file contains a set of ephemeris filenames for the most recently updated ephemeris, with each line corresponding to the ephemeris filename of a Starlink satellite.
[0046] After obtaining the ephemeris list file, iterate through all the ephemeris filenames recorded within the ephemeris list file, and read the contents of the ephemeris file corresponding to each ephemeris filename in turn to obtain the ephemeris data. , ,in, This refers to the ephemeris data content in the first ephemeris file. For ephemeris list file Number of ephemeris filenames. Ephemeris data. It is a two-dimensional matrix, where each row corresponds to a satellite state variable at a discrete moment, and each column corresponds to a different component of the state variable. The ephemeris data contains satellite state variables for a first preset time span (three days) from the update time. Satellite state variables include the satellite's position coordinates, velocity vector, and covariance information. The time interval between adjacent state variables in the ephemeris data is one ten-thousandth of a day. The update time is defined in the comments section at the beginning of the ephemeris manifest file, using Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) and updated every eight hours, typically three times a day in UTC. Due to the inconsistent launch times of Starlink satellites, the ephemeris update times differ for different satellites.
[0047] In obtaining ephemeris data At the same time, it is necessary to obtain ephemeris data. Time-based TLE data. TLE data consists of two rows of element data, containing element information at the time of release and physical parameters used for orbit prediction. It is obtained through a simplified general perturbation 4 model prediction, with sources including CelesTrak, HeavensAbove, and SpaceTrack. TLE data is in vector format. (This is related to obtaining ephemeris data.) The process of obtaining TLE data corresponding to the time is as follows: The first target date and the second target date are determined based on the update time. The first target date is defined as the date of the update time, i.e., the date of the ephemeris data update; the second target date is defined as the date a second preset time span precedes the first target date. The second preset time span is one day, therefore the second target date is the day before the date of the ephemeris data update.
[0048] Based on the first target date and the second target date, obtain the TLE data for the corresponding dates. Obtain the first TLE data of Starlink satellites on the first target date. Acquire second TLE data from Starlink satellites on the second target date. The first TLE data and the second TLE data together constitute the TLE dataset used for evaluation.
[0049] In another embodiment of this solution, S2 is specifically implemented as follows: For the second TLE data Data forecasting processing is performed for the second preset time span. This data forecasting processing is based on a simplified general perturbation 4 model, with the second TLE data as input. The output is the target date TLE forecast data, which is a one-day forecast based on the TLE data of Starlink satellites one day before the ephemeris data update date. The target date TLE forecast data is a two-dimensional matrix, where the rows of the matrix correspond to time, and the columns correspond to position and velocity components.
[0050] Calculate the positional variance. The positional variance is determined based on the first TLE data and the target date TLE forecast data, and is calculated by averaging the positional deviations between the first TLE data and the target date TLE forecast data.
[0051] Extract the variance of ephemeris positions. The variance of ephemeris positions is obtained by analyzing ephemeris data. The covariance information of each state variable is extracted and expressed as follows: ,in, To extract ephemeris data Covariance information. Ephemeris data. The state variables at each time step contain a covariance matrix. The covariance information corresponding to the position components is extracted from the covariance matrix to obtain the ephemeris position variance result. The ephemeris position variance result is a time series, where each element corresponds to ephemeris data. The position variance value at the corresponding time.
[0052] The ephemeris data is partitioned based on positional variance. The ephemeris positional variance results are compared with the positional variance; the comparison process begins with the ephemeris data. Starting from the initial moment, proceeding forward along the time axis, the relationship between each element of the ephemeris position variance result and the position variance is compared sequentially. Ephemeris data within the time period corresponding to an ephemeris position variance result less than or equal to the position variance is designated as the first ephemeris data segment; ephemeris data within the time period corresponding to an ephemeris position variance result greater than the position variance is designated as the second ephemeris data segment; the critical moment between the first and second ephemeris data segments is designated as the critical epoch moment. In other words, the condition is that the ephemeris position variance result is less than or equal to the position variance; when the ephemeris position variance result first exceeds the position variance, the corresponding state variable moment is the critical epoch moment. The critical epoch moment is denoted as... It is a preset epoch time sequence A point in time within a preset epoch time sequence. Corresponding to the timestamp sequence contained in the ephemeris file, the time span is three days, and all timestamps are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). Based on the critical epoch time... ephemeris data The data was segmented to obtain the first segment of ephemeris data. And the second ephemeris data The first segment of ephemeris data is derived from ephemeris data. From start time to critical epoch time The first segment contains ephemeris data, while the second segment contains ephemeris data from the critical epoch. To ephemeris data Ephemeral data between the end times.
[0053] In another embodiment of this solution, S3 is specifically implemented as follows: For TLE data Data forecasting processing is performed on a preset epoch time series. The data forecasting processing is based on a simplified general perturbation 4 model, with TLE data as input. The output is the TLE forecast result. TLE forecast results A two-dimensional matrix, where the rows correspond to time points in a preset epoch time sequence, and the columns correspond to position and velocity components. Preset epoch time sequence The timestamps correspond to the sequence contained in the ephemeris file, spanning three days, and all timestamps are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). The time span for data forecast processing is consistent with the time span of the preset epoch time sequence, which is three days.
[0054] Based on critical epoch time TLE forecast results Divide into segments. Critical epoch time. This refers to the moment when the positional variance in ephemeris data first exceeds a set condition, used to analyze ephemeris data spanning three days. Dividing the data into two segments—the first segment of ephemeris data and the second segment of ephemeris data—is also used to analyze the TLE forecast results over a three-day time span. The data is divided into two segments: the first segment of TLE forecast data and the second segment of TLE forecast data. The TLE forecast results are... The corresponding time is less than or equal to the critical epoch time. The forecast results were used as the first segment of TLE forecast data. TLE forecast results The corresponding time is greater than the critical epoch time. The forecast results were used as the second TLE forecast data. .
[0055] In another improvement of this embodiment, due to TLE data Including the first TLE data And the second TLE data The above "for TLE data" "Perform data forecasting processing of preset epoch time series", which can be divided into separate processing of the first TLE data. And the second TLE data Data forecasting of a preset epoch time series is performed to obtain the first TLE data. The corresponding first TLE forecast data and second TLE data Corresponding second TLE forecast data First TLE forecast data and second TLE forecast data Together they form the TLE forecast results Based on critical epoch time For the first TLE forecast data Second TLE forecast data The division is as follows: Based on critical epoch time For the first TLE forecast data The data is divided according to the conditions above, specifically: the first TLE forecast data is divided. The corresponding time is less than or equal to the critical epoch time. The forecast results are used as the first segment of TLE forecast data. ; the first TLE forecast data The corresponding time is greater than the critical epoch time. The forecast results are used as the first and second TLE forecast data. .
[0056] Based on critical epoch time The second TLE forecast data is divided according to the conditions above, specifically: data with a corresponding time less than or equal to the critical epoch are included in the second TLE forecast data. The forecast results are used as the second-first segment of the TLE forecast data. ; The second TLE forecast data will include the time corresponding to the critical epoch. The forecast results are used as the second TLE forecast data. .
[0057] In summary, the first segment of TLE forecast data And the second and first TLE forecast data The first segment of TLE forecast data is composed of First and second TLE forecast data And the second TLE forecast data Composition of the second segment of TLE forecast data First segment of TLE forecast data Compared with the second TLE forecast data Based on critical epoch time Division. First segment of TLE forecast data. and the first and second TLE forecast data Composed of the first TLE forecast data, the second first segment of the TLE forecast data And the second TLE forecast data The second TLE forecast data is composed of the first and second TLE forecast data. The composition and division.
[0058] In subsequent positional deviation calculations, only the first segment of TLE forecast data was used. First and second TLE forecast data And the second TLE forecast data For the second and first segments of TLE forecast data No action will be taken.
[0059] In another embodiment of this solution, S4 is specifically implemented as follows: In this scheme, a segmented evaluation strategy is adopted for forecast accuracy assessment. The first segment simply calculates the absolute value of the difference, while the second segment uses a nonlinear function. The position deviation calculation is divided into two segments based on the critical epoch time. This division process has been reflected in the division of ephemeris data and TLE forecast results in the aforementioned steps. Here, we only introduce how to calculate the position deviation of the two segments.
[0060] According to the first set of ephemeris data And the first segment of positional deviation was calculated from the first segment of TLE forecast data. First segment of TLE forecast data Including the first segment of TLE forecast data And the second and first TLE forecast data The first segment's positional deviation The calculation formula is as follows: The first segment's positional deviation Reflects time interval Within the range, the degree of deviation between the TLE predicted orbit and the precise ephemeris.
[0061] According to the second set of ephemeris data And the second segment of TLE forecast data was used to calculate the positional deviation of the second segment. The second segment's positional deviation The calculation formula is as follows: ;in, The weights for the TLE weighted average, with values ranging from [0,1], for example, 0.4. Second segment positional deviation. Reflects time interval Within the range, the degree of deviation between the TLE predicted orbit and the precise ephemeris. First positional deviation. and the second positional deviation They are used together in the subsequent calculation of TLE forecast accuracy assessment results.
[0062] In another embodiment of this solution, S5 is specifically implemented as follows: Based on the first segment of positional deviation and the second segment positional deviation Calculate the TLE prediction accuracy assessment results for Starlink satellites TLE forecast accuracy assessment results By analyzing the positional deviation of the first segment and the second segment positional deviation The root mean square error is used to obtain the following calculation formula: TLE forecast accuracy assessment results It is a scalar value that represents the overall deviation between the TLE predicted orbit and the precise ephemeris over the entire three-day time span. The smaller the value, the higher the accuracy of the TLE forecast; The larger the value, the lower the accuracy of the TLE forecast.
[0063] The beneficial effects are as follows: The method described in this scheme enables a three-day orbit prediction accuracy assessment of Starlink satellites. The assessment time coverage is extended from a single orbital period in existing technologies to a complete three-day span, significantly improving the support capability of the assessment results for ground tracking and monitoring missions. By introducing a position variance threshold detection mechanism, the three-day ephemeris data is adaptively divided into two time periods before and after the critical epoch. Before the critical epoch, the current day's TLE data is used for prediction; after the critical epoch, two sets of TLE data from the previous day and the current day are used for cross-validation assessment. This overcomes the insufficient assessment accuracy problem caused by the lack of segmentation in existing technologies, resulting in more refined and accurate assessment results.
[0064] Furthermore, acquire the ephemeris data of Starlink satellites and their corresponding TLE data, specifically including: Obtain the ephemeris list file of Starlink satellites and iterate through the ephemeris list file to obtain ephemeris data; the ephemeris list file contains the ephemeris of Starlink satellites for the first preset time span since the update time; The date of the update is taken as the first target date, and the date within a second preset time span before the first target date is taken as the second target date; Acquire first TLE data of Starlink satellites on a first target date and second TLE data on a second target date; the first TLE data and the second TLE data constitute TLE data.
[0065] Furthermore, the location variance is determined based on the TLE data, specifically including: The second TLE data is processed by a second preset time span to obtain the TLE forecast data for the target date. The location variance is determined based on the first TLE data and the target date TLE forecast data.
[0066] Furthermore, based on the second segment of ephemeris data and the second segment of TLE forecast data, the positional deviation of the second segment was determined, specifically including: The second segment of TLE forecast data includes the first and second segment TLE forecast data corresponding to the first TLE data, and the second and second segment TLE forecast data corresponding to the second TLE data; The positional deviation of the second segment is determined based on the second segment ephemeris data, the first and second segment TLE forecast data, and the second segment TLE forecast data.
[0067] Furthermore, the ephemeris data is divided based on positional variance to obtain the critical epoch time, the first segment of ephemeris data, and the second segment of ephemeris data, specifically including: Covariance information is extracted from ephemeris data to obtain the ephemeris position variance results; The ephemeris data within the time period corresponding to the ephemeris position variance result being less than or equal to the position variance are taken as the first segment of ephemeris data; The ephemeris data within the time period whose ephemeris position variance is greater than the position variance is used as the second ephemeris data; The critical epoch time is defined as the time between the first and second ephemeris data segments.
[0068] Furthermore, the TLE forecast results are divided based on the critical epoch time to obtain the first segment of TLE forecast data and the second segment of TLE forecast data, specifically including: The forecast results with a time less than or equal to the critical epoch in the TLE forecast results are taken as the first segment of TLE forecast data; The forecast results with corresponding times greater than the critical epoch in the TLE forecast results are used as the second segment of TLE forecast data.
[0069] Furthermore, it also includes: The orbital data of Starlink satellites are divided according to their life cycle to obtain multiple operational phases of Starlink satellites; The operation is divided into stages based on ephemeris data and TLE data for each stage, resulting in stage ephemeris data and stage TLE data for each stage. For each operational phase of a Starlink satellite, the phase ephemeris data corresponding to that operational phase is used as ephemeris data, and the phase TLE data corresponding to that operational phase is used as TLE data. S1-S5 are repeated to obtain the TLE prediction accuracy assessment result corresponding to that operational phase. The final TLE forecast accuracy assessment results for Starlink satellites are determined based on the TLE forecast accuracy assessment results from all operational phases.
[0070] In another embodiment of this solution, the above improvement is specifically implemented as follows: The orbital data of Starlink satellites are divided according to their lifecycle to obtain multiple operational phases, including the orbital ascent phase, the orbital maintenance phase, and the active descent phase. In this embodiment, the orbital altitude is... and The Starlink satellite orbit data was selected for the ascent phase, and the ephemeris data for this phase was marked as follows: TLE data is marked as ; Adjust the orbital height and The Starlink satellite orbit data was filtered into the orbit maintenance phase, and the ephemeris data for this phase was marked as... TLE data is marked as ; Adjust the orbital height and The Starlink satellite orbit data was selected as the active descent phase, and the ephemeris data for this phase was marked as... TLE data is marked as .
[0071] In this embodiment, the TLE prediction accuracy evaluation result of the calculated orbital ascent phase is used as an example to illustrate the phased TLE prediction accuracy evaluation method.
[0072] The specific details of S2 in the orbital ascent phase are as follows: For the second TLE data One day of data forecasting is performed to obtain the target date TLE forecast data. Based on the first TLE data... The positional variance is calculated by averaging the positional deviations between the target date TLE forecast data and the actual positional deviations. This is achieved through analysis of ephemeris data. The covariance information of each state variable is extracted to obtain the ephemeris position variance result.
[0073] The ephemeris position variance is compared with the position variance. The state variable moment when the ephemeris position variance first exceeds the position variance is the critical epoch moment. According to the critical epoch time ephemeris data The data was segmented to obtain the first segment of ephemeris data. And the second ephemeris data .
[0074] It should be noted that all terms mentioned in S2 of the orbital ascent section are prefixed with "orbital ascent section," and the data expressions have been updated (represented in the expressions as...). The processing method and process remain unchanged and will be described in a concise manner, and will not be repeated hereafter.
[0075] The S3 phase of the orbital ascent is as follows: For TLE data Data forecasting of a preset epoch time series is performed to obtain TLE forecast results. .
[0076] Based on critical epoch time TLE forecast results Divide the TLE forecast results into categories. The corresponding time is less than or equal to the critical epoch time. The forecast results were used as the first segment of TLE forecast data. TLE forecast results The corresponding time is greater than the critical epoch time. The forecast results were used as the second TLE forecast data. .
[0077] In another improvement of this embodiment, the first segment of TLE forecast data... Including the first segment of TLE forecast data And the second and first TLE forecast data Second segment of TLE forecast data Including the first and second TLE forecast data And the second TLE forecast data .
[0078] The S4 phase of the orbital ascent is as follows: According to the first set of ephemeris data And the first segment of positional deviation was calculated from the first segment of TLE forecast data. The formula is as follows: .
[0079] According to the second set of ephemeris data The formula for calculating the positional deviation of the second segment based on the second segment of TLE forecast data is as follows: .
[0080] The S5 phase of the orbital ascent is specifically as follows: Based on the first segment of positional deviation and the second segment positional deviation Calculate the TLE prediction accuracy assessment results for Starlink satellites The formula is as follows: .
[0081] Based on the TLE prediction accuracy assessment results during the orbital ascent phase The calculation process involves calculating the TLE prediction accuracy assessment results for the orbit maintenance phase. And the TLE prediction accuracy assessment results for the active descent segment. The final TLE prediction accuracy assessment result is obtained by taking a weighted average of the TLE prediction accuracy assessment results for the three operational phases. The weight of the average is determined based on the number of satellites included in each operational phase, and the weight of the average for each operational phase is determined based on the proportion of satellites included in each operational phase. The final TLE prediction accuracy assessment result comprehensively reflects the overall TLE prediction accuracy of satellites in all operational phases of the Starlink constellation, providing global quantitative support for orbit prediction errors for ground tracking and monitoring.
[0082] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram showing the change of the position variance in the UVW direction of satellite number 44719 over time. Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the change in the position variance of satellite 56118 in the UVW direction over time. Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the UVW direction position variance over time for the temporary satellite number 799501899 (indicating that the satellite is in the early ascending phase and has not yet been officially numbered). Figures 2-4 These are all schematic diagrams of the position variance of Starlink satellites in the UVW direction during the orbital ascent phase. The UVW direction is also known as the RTN direction, which is the radial-tangential-normal coordinate system. Figures 2-4 Each figure contains three curves, representing the variation trends of the positional variances in the radial, tangential, and normal directions, respectively.
[0083] Figure 5 This diagram illustrates the average error distribution of 2049 targets during their orbital ascent phase. The horizontal axis represents time, and the vertical axis represents position variance, reflecting the overall variation pattern of the satellite's position variance during the orbital ascent phase. The variance value shows a significant increasing trend near the critical epoch.
[0084] Figure 6 This is a schematic diagram showing the change of the position variance in the UVW direction of satellite number 44714 over time. Figure 7 This is a schematic diagram showing the change of the position variance in the UVW direction of satellite number 64437 over time. Figures 6-7 All figures are schematic diagrams of the position variance of Starlink satellites in the UVW direction during the orbit maintenance phase. Each figure contains three curves, which represent the changing trends of the position variance in the radial, tangential, and normal directions, respectively.
[0085] Figure 8 This diagram illustrates the average error distribution of 4222 targets during the orbit maintenance phase. The horizontal axis represents time, and the vertical axis represents position variance, reflecting the overall position variance variation pattern of the satellites during the orbit maintenance phase. The variance values remain relatively stable over a three-day time span, with a lower growth rate than during the orbital ascent phase.
[0086] Figure 9 This is a schematic diagram showing the change of the position variance in the UVW direction of satellite number 44716 over time. Figure 10This is a schematic diagram showing the change of the position variance in the UVW direction of satellite number 65258 over time. Figures 9-10 All figures are schematic diagrams of the position variance of Starlink satellites in the UVW direction during the active descent phase. Each figure contains three curves, which represent the changing trends of the position variance in the radial, tangential, and normal directions, respectively.
[0087] Figure 11 This diagram illustrates the average error distribution of 1967 targets in the active descent phase. The horizontal axis represents time, and the vertical axis represents position variance, reflecting the overall change in position variance of the satellites during the active descent phase. The variance value is relatively high in the initial stage and shows a rapid decreasing trend over time, consistent with the physical characteristic of a rapid decrease in orbital altitude.
[0088] Figures 2 to 11 The necessity and rationality of the phased assessment were verified by actual data, which showed the significant differences in satellite position variance at different operational stages and supported the effectiveness of the phased assessment strategy proposed in this scheme.
[0089] The beneficial effects are as follows: Based on the Starlink satellite lifecycle, the satellites are divided into three operational phases: orbit insertion and ascent, orbit maintenance, and active descent. Independent forecast accuracy assessment procedures are executed for the orbital characteristics of each phase. Through refined matching of phase ephemeris data and phase TLE data, differentiated accuracy analysis of satellites in different operational phases is achieved, overcoming the limitation of existing technologies that cannot perform accuracy analysis for satellites in different phases. During the orbit insertion and ascent phase, the satellite's orbital altitude changes drastically; this scheme accurately captures the critical moment of increasing orbital uncertainty through position variance threshold detection. During the orbit maintenance phase, the satellite's orbit is relatively stable; the three-day continuous assessment provided by this scheme comprehensively reflects the long-term forecast error accumulation characteristics. During the active descent phase, the satellite's orbit decays rapidly; this scheme effectively identifies accuracy differences between different forecast periods through segmented assessment.
[0090] By integrating the TLE forecast accuracy assessment results from all operational phases, a weighted average was used to calculate the final TLE forecast accuracy assessment result for Starlink satellites, providing global quantitative support for orbit forecast error quantification for ground tracking and monitoring. The assessment result is expressed in the form of root mean square error, clearly and intuitively reflecting the overall deviation between the TLE predicted orbit and the MITC precise ephemeris, providing reliable data support for Starlink constellation orbit management, collision warning, and observation scheduling.
[0091] In the above embodiments, although the steps are numbered S1, S2, etc., they are only specific embodiments given by the present invention. Those skilled in the art can adjust the execution order of S1, S2, etc. according to the actual situation, and these situations are also within the protection scope of the present invention. It can be understood that in some embodiments, some or all of the above embodiments may be included.
[0092] This invention also provides a TLE forecast accuracy evaluation system for Starlink constellation satellites, the specific technical solution of which is as follows: a data acquisition module, a threshold detection module, an orbit prediction module, a deviation calculation module, and an accuracy evaluation module; The data acquisition module is used to acquire ephemeris data of Starlink satellites and their corresponding TLE data; The threshold detection module is used to determine the position variance based on the TLE data, and divide the ephemeris data based on the position variance to obtain the critical epoch time, the first segment of ephemeris data and the second segment of ephemeris data; The orbit prediction module is used to perform data prediction processing on TLE data at preset epoch time sequences to obtain TLE prediction results; based on the critical epoch time, the TLE prediction results are divided into the first segment of TLE prediction data and the second segment of TLE prediction data; The deviation calculation module is used to determine the first segment position deviation based on the first segment of ephemeris data and the first segment of TLE forecast data, and to determine the second segment position deviation based on the second segment of ephemeris data and the second segment of TLE forecast data. The accuracy assessment module is used to determine the accuracy assessment results of the TLE forecasts for Starlink satellites based on the first segment position deviation and the second segment position deviation.
[0093] Based on the above solution, the present invention can be further improved as follows.
[0094] Furthermore, acquire the ephemeris data of Starlink satellites and their corresponding TLE data, specifically including: Obtain the ephemeris list file of Starlink satellites and iterate through the ephemeris list file to obtain ephemeris data; the ephemeris list file contains the ephemeris of Starlink satellites for the first preset time span since the update time; The date of the update is taken as the first target date, and the date within a second preset time span before the first target date is taken as the second target date; Acquire first TLE data of Starlink satellites on a first target date and second TLE data on a second target date; the first TLE data and the second TLE data constitute TLE data.
[0095] Furthermore, the location variance is determined based on the TLE data, specifically including: The second TLE data is processed by a second preset time span to obtain the TLE forecast data for the target date. The location variance is determined based on the first TLE data and the target date TLE forecast data.
[0096] Furthermore, based on the second segment of ephemeris data and the second segment of TLE forecast data, the positional deviation of the second segment was determined, specifically including: The second segment of TLE forecast data includes the first and second segment TLE forecast data corresponding to the first TLE data, and the second and second segment TLE forecast data corresponding to the second TLE data; The positional deviation of the second segment is determined based on the second segment ephemeris data, the first and second segment TLE forecast data, and the second segment TLE forecast data.
[0097] Furthermore, the ephemeris data is divided based on positional variance to obtain the critical epoch time, the first segment of ephemeris data, and the second segment of ephemeris data, specifically including: Covariance information is extracted from ephemeris data to obtain the ephemeris position variance results; The ephemeris data within the time period corresponding to the ephemeris position variance result being less than or equal to the position variance are taken as the first segment of ephemeris data; The ephemeris data within the time period whose ephemeris position variance is greater than the position variance is used as the second ephemeris data; The critical epoch time is defined as the time between the first and second ephemeris data segments.
[0098] Furthermore, the TLE forecast results are divided based on the critical epoch time to obtain the first segment of TLE forecast data and the second segment of TLE forecast data, specifically including: The forecast results with a time less than or equal to the critical epoch in the TLE forecast results are taken as the first segment of TLE forecast data; The forecast results with corresponding times greater than the critical epoch in the TLE forecast results are used as the second segment of TLE forecast data.
[0099] Furthermore, it also includes: The orbital data of Starlink satellites are divided according to their life cycle to obtain multiple operational phases of Starlink satellites; The operation is divided into stages based on ephemeris data and TLE data for each stage, resulting in stage ephemeris data and stage TLE data for each stage. For each operational phase of a Starlink satellite, the phase ephemeris data corresponding to that operational phase is used as ephemeris data, and the phase TLE data corresponding to that operational phase is used as TLE data. The repetitive data acquisition module, threshold detection module, orbit prediction module, deviation calculation module, and accuracy evaluation module are used to obtain the TLE prediction accuracy evaluation result corresponding to that operational phase. The final TLE forecast accuracy assessment results for Starlink satellites are determined based on the TLE forecast accuracy assessment results from all operational phases.
[0100] It should be noted that the beneficial effects of the TLE forecast accuracy evaluation system for Starlink constellation satellites provided in the above embodiments are the same as those of the TLE forecast accuracy evaluation method for Starlink constellation satellites described above, and will not be repeated here. Furthermore, the system provided in the above embodiments is only illustrated by the division of the above functional modules. In practical applications, the above functions can be assigned to different functional modules as needed, that is, the system can be divided into different functional modules according to the actual situation to complete all or part of the functions described above. In addition, the system and method embodiments provided in the above embodiments belong to the same concept, and their specific implementation process is detailed in the method embodiments, and will not be repeated here.
[0101] like Figure 12 As shown, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer device 300, which includes a processor 320 coupled to a memory 310. The memory 310 stores at least one computer program 330, which is loaded and executed by the processor 320 to enable the computer device 300 to implement any of the above-described methods. Specifically: The computer device 300 can vary considerably due to differences in configuration or performance. It may include one or more processors 320 (Central Processing Units, CPUs) and one or more memories 310. The memories 310 store at least one computer program 330, which is loaded and executed by the processors 320 to enable the computer device 300 to implement the TLE forecast accuracy evaluation method for Starlink constellation satellites provided in the above embodiments. Of course, the computer device 300 may also have wired or wireless network interfaces, a keyboard, and input / output interfaces for input / output. It may also include other components for implementing device functions, which will not be elaborated upon here.
[0102] An embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium storing at least one computer program, which is loaded and executed by a processor to enable a computer to implement any of the above-described methods.
[0103] Alternatively, the computer-readable storage medium may be a read-only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), magnetic tape, a floppy disk, and an optical data storage device, etc.
[0104] In an exemplary embodiment, a computer program product or computer program is also provided, which includes computer instructions stored in a computer-readable storage medium. A processor of a computer device reads the computer instructions from the computer-readable storage medium and executes the computer instructions, causing the computer device to perform any of the above-described methods for evaluating the accuracy of TLE forecasts for Starlink constellation satellites.
[0105] It should be noted that the terms "first," "second," etc., used in the specification and claims of this application are used to distinguish similar objects and represent a limitation on a specific order or sequence. Where appropriate, the order of use for similar objects can be interchanged so that the embodiments of this application described herein can be implemented in an order other than that shown or described.
[0106] Those skilled in the art will recognize that this invention can be implemented as a system, method, or computer program product. Therefore, this disclosure can be specifically implemented in the following forms: it can be entirely hardware, entirely software (including firmware, resident software, microcode, etc.), or a combination of hardware and software, generally referred to herein as a "circuit," "module," or "system." Furthermore, in some embodiments, the invention can also be implemented as a computer program product contained in one or more computer-readable media, which includes computer-readable program code.
[0107] Any combination of one or more computer-readable media may be used. A computer-readable medium can be a computer-readable signal medium or a computer-readable storage medium. A computer-readable storage medium can be, for example, but not limited to, an electrical, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, apparatus, or device, or any combination thereof. More specific examples (a non-exhaustive list) of computer-readable storage media include: an electrical connection having one or more wires, a portable computer disk, a hard disk, random access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), optical fiber, portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), optical storage device, magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination thereof. In this document, a computer-readable storage medium can be any tangible medium that contains or stores a program that can be used by or in connection with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device.
[0108] Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above, it is understood that the above embodiments are exemplary and should not be construed as limiting the present invention. Those skilled in the art can make changes, modifications, substitutions and variations to the above embodiments within the scope of the present invention.
Claims
1. A method for evaluating the accuracy of TLE (Time Leakage) predictions for Starlink constellation satellites, characterized in that, include: S1, acquire ephemeris data of Starlink satellites and their corresponding TLE data; S2, determine the position variance based on the TLE data, and divide the ephemeris data based on the position variance to obtain the critical epoch time, the first segment of ephemeris data and the second segment of ephemeris data; S3, perform data forecasting processing on the TLE data using a preset epoch time sequence to obtain TLE forecasting results; The TLE forecast results are divided based on the critical epoch time to obtain the first segment of TLE forecast data and the second segment of TLE forecast data; S4, determine the first segment position deviation based on the first segment ephemeris data and the first segment TLE forecast data, and determine the second segment position deviation based on the second segment ephemeris data and the second segment TLE forecast data; S5. Determine the TLE prediction accuracy assessment result of Starlink satellites based on the first segment position deviation and the second segment position deviation.
2. The method for evaluating the TLE prediction accuracy of Starlink constellation satellites according to claim 1, characterized in that, The acquisition of Starlink satellite ephemeris data and its corresponding TLE data specifically includes: Obtain the ephemeris list file of Starlink satellites, and traverse the ephemeris list file to obtain the ephemeris data; the ephemeris list file contains the ephemeris of Starlink satellites for a first preset time span since the update time; The date at which the update occurs is taken as the first target date, and the date within a second preset time span before the first target date is taken as the second target date; Acquire first TLE data of Starlink satellites on the first target date and second TLE data on the second target date; the first TLE data and the second TLE data constitute the TLE data.
3. The method for evaluating the accuracy of TLE predictions for Starlink constellation satellites according to claim 2, characterized in that, The step of determining the location variance based on the TLE data specifically includes: The second TLE data is processed by the second preset time span to obtain the target date TLE forecast data; The location variance is determined based on the first TLE data and the target date TLE forecast data.
4. The method for evaluating the accuracy of TLE predictions for Starlink constellation satellites according to claim 2, characterized in that, The determination of the second segment positional deviation based on the second segment ephemeris data and the second segment TLE forecast data specifically includes: The second segment of TLE forecast data includes the first and second segment of TLE forecast data corresponding to the first TLE data and the second segment of TLE forecast data corresponding to the second TLE data; The positional deviation of the second segment is determined based on the second segment ephemeris data, the first and second segment TLE forecast data, and the second and third segment TLE forecast data.
5. The method for evaluating the accuracy of TLE predictions for Starlink constellation satellites according to claim 1, characterized in that, The process of dividing the ephemeris data based on the positional variance to obtain the critical epoch time, the first segment of ephemeris data, and the second segment of ephemeris data specifically includes: Based on the ephemeris data, covariance information is extracted to obtain the ephemeris position variance results; The ephemeris data within the time period corresponding to the ephemeris position variance result being less than or equal to the position variance are taken as the first segment of ephemeris data; The ephemeris data within the time period corresponding to the ephemeris position variance result being greater than the position variance are used as the second ephemeris data segment. The critical epoch time is defined as the critical epoch time between the first segment of ephemeris data and the second segment of ephemeris data.
6. The method for evaluating the TLE prediction accuracy of Starlink constellation satellites according to claim 1, characterized in that, The step of dividing the TLE forecast results based on the critical epoch time to obtain a first segment of TLE forecast data and a second segment of TLE forecast data specifically includes: The forecast results in the TLE forecast results whose corresponding time is less than or equal to the critical epoch time are taken as the first segment of TLE forecast data; The forecast results in the TLE forecast results whose corresponding time is greater than the critical epoch time are used as the second segment of TLE forecast data.
7. The TLE prediction accuracy evaluation method for a star chain constellation satellite according to claim 1, characterized in that, Also includes: The orbital data of Starlink satellites are divided according to their life cycle to obtain multiple operational phases of Starlink satellites; The operation is divided into stages based on the ephemeris data and TLE data for each of the multiple operation stages, resulting in stage ephemeris data and stage TLE data for each operation stage. For each operational phase of a Starlink satellite, the phase ephemeris data corresponding to that operational phase is used as the ephemeris data, and the phase TLE data corresponding to that operational phase is used as the TLE data. S1-S5 are repeated to obtain the TLE prediction accuracy assessment result corresponding to that operational phase. The final TLE forecast accuracy assessment results for Starlink satellites are determined based on the TLE forecast accuracy assessment results from all operational phases.
8. A TLE prediction accuracy evaluation system for a constellation of satellites, characterized in that, include: The system includes a data acquisition module, a threshold detection module, a trajectory prediction module, a deviation calculation module, and an accuracy evaluation module. The data acquisition module is used to acquire the ephemeris data of Starlink satellites and their corresponding TLE data; The threshold detection module is used to determine the position variance based on the TLE data, and divide the ephemeris data based on the position variance to obtain the critical epoch time, the first segment of ephemeris data and the second segment of ephemeris data. The orbit prediction module is used to perform data prediction processing on the TLE data using a preset epoch time sequence to obtain TLE prediction results; The TLE forecast results are divided based on the critical epoch time to obtain the first segment of TLE forecast data and the second segment of TLE forecast data; The deviation calculation module is used to determine the first segment position deviation based on the first segment of ephemeris data and the first segment of TLE forecast data, and to determine the second segment position deviation based on the second segment of ephemeris data and the second segment of TLE forecast data. The accuracy assessment module is used to determine the TLE prediction accuracy assessment result of Starlink satellites based on the first segment position deviation and the second segment position deviation.
9. A computer device, comprising: The computer device includes a processor coupled to a memory storing at least one computer program, which is loaded and executed by the processor to enable the computer device to implement a TLE forecast accuracy assessment method for Starlink constellation satellites as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The computer-readable storage medium stores at least one computer program, which is loaded and executed by a processor to enable the computer to implement a TLE forecast accuracy assessment method for Starlink constellation satellites as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.