A method for predicting the risk of farmland abandonment by fusing counterfactual reasoning

By employing counterfactual reasoning and multi-source data modeling, the problem of early warning of potential farmland abandonment risks in the Northeast black soil region has been solved. This has enabled accurate identification and quantitative prediction of abandoned land plots, providing data support for the prevention and control of farmland abandonment in the region, and promoting the protection of black soil and the sustainable development of the agricultural economy.

CN122114628APending Publication Date: 2026-05-29INST OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCI & NATURAL RESOURCE RES CAS
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
INST OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCI & NATURAL RESOURCE RES CAS
Filing Date
2026-02-13
Publication Date
2026-05-29

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing technologies are insufficient for early warning and proactive intervention of potential farmland abandonment risks in the black soil region of Northeast China, and there is a lack of forward-looking exploration of the risks of abandonment without large-scale operation.

Method used

Using a counterfactual reasoning approach, this study models rural residential areas based on global urban and rural residential raster data through multi-source data. It then extrapolates aging trends using statistical yearbook data, calculates accessibility and slope data to perform 15-minute accessibility analysis, predicts potential abandoned areas, and determines the type of land transfer after abandonment.

Benefits of technology

It has enabled the accurate identification and quantitative visualization of abandoned land at risk, providing data support for the prevention and control of abandoned farmland in the region, and promoting the protection of black soil and the sustainable development of regional agricultural economy.

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Abstract

The application discloses a kind of cultivated land abandoned risk prediction methods of fusing counterfactual reasoning ideas, comprising the following steps: step 1, based on global urban and rural residential grid data set, generate rural residential mask data set;Step 2, the aging trend of rural residential area on the grid scale of northeast area is extrapolated by fusing statistical yearbook data, and the corresponding average walking speed is calculated;Step 3, 15-minute accessibility calculation is carried out based on forbidden area, aging population speed and slope data;Step 4, based on 15-minute accessibility range and cultivated land data, predict potential abandoned risk area;Step 5, based on the future cultivated land abandoned after the type determination of abandoned ring turns out.The present application is based on counterfactual reasoning perspective, objectively and quantitatively identifies cultivated land plots with abandoned risk, to provide data support for abandoned prevention means.
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