Decision-making support system and decision-making support method

Abstract

To enable proposing a content of changes that is more likely to be agreed upon by multiple organizations when making changes to a supply chain execution plan.SOLUTION: Provided is a decision-making support system for supporting changes to a supply chain (SC) execution plan involving multiple organizations, comprising: an SC simulator for creating an SC execution plan; a change reception unit for receiving changes to the SC execution plan created by the SC simulator; a sensitivity analysis execution unit for calculating impacts of the changes to the SC execution plan on indicators managed by a relevant department executing the SC execution plan, and storing the results in sensitivity analysis results; a change allowance calculation unit for creating change allowance information that normalizes the sensitivity analysis results; and an output unit for adding and outputting the change allowance information calculated by the change allowance calculation unit to the SC execution plan.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a decision support system and a decision making method. [Background technology]

[0002] When production is carried out by multiple departments, each department and company has its own KPI (Key Performance Indicator), so when a change is made to a plan, conflicts in KPIs between departments and companies require time for discussion, resulting in delays in operations. This creates a risk of lowering the resilience and KPIs of the entire supply chain (SC).

[0003] For example, each organization in the SC has KPIs (key performance indicators) such as procurement constraints, production constraints, transportation constraints, sales plans, and demand forecasts, and SC execution plans such as procurement plans, transportation plans, and production plans are developed to satisfy these indicators.

[0004] An experienced planner reviews the SC implementation plan that has been created and considers whether to increase inventory to deal with the predicted bad weather, or to add overtime to create a production plan to meet demand. Based on the results of that review, the SC implementation plan is then revised.

[0005] However, since planners with experience in various fields are not necessarily able to verify or modify the SC implementation plans, there is a need to provide the information necessary to verify the validity of and modify the SC implementation plans. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0006] [Patent Document 1] Patent Publication No. 2022-34475 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0007] Patent document 1 (JP 2022-34475 A) discloses an invention in which a CPU obtains a pre-derived total cost by adding up the costs for each department in a supply chain, including the inventory management department and the production management department, accepts one of multiple indicators managed by each department as an indicator to be changed from the indicator used when deriving the total cost, extracts the influence of other indicators related to the selected indicator, and updates the display to reflect the influence, thereby visualizing the influence on other indicators for each department when the accepted indicator is changed.

[0008] However, although Patent Document 1 visualizes the degree of impact on other departments, it is not possible to display revision proposals that are likely to be agreed upon by overlaying the acceptability of the plans of each department.

[0009] An object of the present invention is to display a heat map that overlays the acceptability of a proposed plan for each organization, such as a department or company, and to provide information that makes it easier to obtain agreement within each organization. [Means for solving the problem]

[0010] The object of the present invention is to solve the problems by a decision support system that supports changes to a supply chain (SC) execution plan involving multiple organizations, the decision support system comprising: an SC simulator that creates an SC execution plan; a change receiving unit that accepts changes to the SC execution plan created by the SC simulator; a sensitivity analysis execution unit that calculates the degree of impact of the changes to the SC execution plan on indicators managed by related departments that execute the SC execution plan and stores the degree in the sensitivity analysis results; a change tolerance calculation unit that creates change tolerance information that normalizes the sensitivity analysis results; and an output unit that adds the change tolerance information calculated by the change tolerance calculation unit to the SC execution plan and outputs it. Effect of the Invention

[0011] According to the present invention, when changing an action plan for an SC, it is possible to propose changes that are more likely to be agreed upon among multiple organizations. Problems, configurations, and effects other than those described above will become apparent from the following description of the embodiment. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0012] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a system configuration according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Diagram 2] 2 is an example of a hardware configuration according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Diagram 3] 1 is an example of SC master information according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 4] FIG. 2 is a diagram for explaining a simulation model in an embodiment of the present invention. [Diagram 5] 4 is an example of SC plan information according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 6] 1 is an example of a sensitivity analysis scenario in an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 7] 13 is an example of SC cost information according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 8] 13 is an example of a sensitivity analysis result in an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 9] 4 is an example of change tolerance information according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 10] 13 is an example of plan change bias information in an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 11] 13 is an example of an output screen in the embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 12] 1 is an example of a flowchart showing a process of a decision support system in an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 13] 1 is an example of a heat map of shipping costs in an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 14] 13 is an example of a heat map of procurement costs in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0013] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In each drawing for explaining the embodiments, the same components are given the same names and reference numerals as much as possible, and repeated description will be omitted.

[0014] The present invention is not limited to the following examples, and includes various modifications and equivalent configurations within the spirit of the appended claims. For example, the above-mentioned examples have been described in detail to clearly explain the present invention, and the present invention is not necessarily limited to those including all of the described configurations.

[0015] In addition, the processing units described in the embodiments may be realized in hardware, for example by designing some or all of them as integrated circuits, or may be realized in software by a processor interpreting and executing a program that realizes each function.

[0016] The tables, areas, etc. described in the embodiments may be a database (DB) or may be data stored in the main memory. EXAMPLES

[0017] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of a system configuration according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0018] The decision support system 1 is configured with a computer device including a main memory device 4, an external memory device 5, a network interface 6, a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 7, and an input / output unit 12. In this embodiment, an example of implementation by a computer device will be described, but the system may also be realized by a system that provides computer resources such as a cloud.

[0019] The decision support system 1 is connected to companies 3 such as suppliers, factories, warehouses, logistics companies, and service providers via a network 2, and coordinates SC plans. Terminals equipped with a display unit 37 and an input unit 38 connected to the decision support system 1 are placed in the companies.

[0020] The terminal may be a PC (Personal Computer), a tablet terminal, a smartphone, or the like.

[0021] The main storage device 4 of the decision support system 1 includes a change tolerance calculation unit 8 , a plan arbitration unit 9 , a supply chain simulator 10 , and a user display unit 11 .

[0022] The change tolerance calculation unit 8 is a module that creates a heat map that indicates the possibility of changes in the supply chain.

[0023] The system is equipped with a sensitivity analysis execution unit 20 that analyzes the possibility of changes, a heat map information generation unit 21 that creates heat map information, a sensitivity analysis scenario 23 that indicates the changes to the SC, and a bias information generation unit 22 that creates information indicating the possibility of changes to the SC based on a sensitivity analysis result 24, which is information in which the supply chain simulator 10 analyzes the changes to the SC and adds information on changes in costs due to changes to the SC plan.

[0024] The plan mediation unit 9 is equipped with a plan change notification unit 25 that sends proposed changes to the SC execution plan to companies 3 such as suppliers, and a stakeholder communication unit 26 that coordinates the changes between companies, and stores post-plan confirmation information 27 that is the result of the coordination.

[0025] The related party communication unit 26 may be a communication means such as chat or e-mail.

[0026] The user display unit 11 includes a change receiving unit 28 that receives requests for SC changes from the companies 3, a heat map display unit 29 for displaying heat maps, a plan adjustment chat unit 30 that coordinates changes to the SC execution plan, and a confirmed plan receiving unit 31 that accepts change plans whose changes have been confirmed between the companies.

[0027] The external storage device stores SC master information 32 which stores various types of SCs, SC cost information 33 which stores cost information incurred by SCs, SC plan information 34 which stores SC execution information, change tolerance information 35 which stores information indicating the possibility of changing the SC, and plan change bias information 36 derived from the history of past SC plan changes.

[0028] The change tolerance calculation unit 8, plan arbitration unit 9, supply chain simulator 10 and user display unit 11 are realized as software modules, and are executed by the CPU 7 by referring to various information stored in the external storage device 5.

[0029] The input / output unit 12 receives input from a keyboard or the like from an operator of the decision support system 1, and outputs information such as a heat map to the operator's screen.

[0030] The network interface 6 performs transmission and reception of information regarding the SC change plan to and from the company 3 .

[0031] FIG. 2 shows an example of a hardware configuration according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0032] The decision support system 1 includes a CPU 7, a main memory device 4 which realizes virtual memory in cooperation with an external memory device, an input / output unit 12 such as a keyboard, a touch panel, a mouse, etc., an external memory device 5 which is a non-volatile memory device such as an HDD (Hard Disk Drive) or an SSD (Solid State Drive), and a network interface 6 such as a network adapter for connecting to a LAN (Local Area Network), WAN (Wide Area Network), etc.

[0033] FIG. 3 is an example of SC master information in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0034] The SC master information stores a company ID 50, a company name 51, an item ID 52, an item name 53, a shipping origin 54, a shipping destination 55, and a LT (Lead Time) 56 in association with each other.

[0035] This information indicates the number of days (LT 56) required for company ID 50 to produce item ID 52 in the SC, and the number of days (LT 56) required to transport item ID 52 from source 54 to destination 55.

[0036] FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining a simulation model in the embodiment of the present invention.

[0037] When an example of a simulation model is described using the SC master information in FIG. 3, it takes four days to assemble part B supplied by supplier A 60 and supplier B 61 in factory 62.

[0038] The model shows that it takes 10 days for transporter A63 to transport assembled item A to warehouse A65, and 5 days for transporter B64 to transport it to warehouse B66.

[0039] FIG. 5 is an example of SC plan information in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0040] The plan with plan name 71 and plan ID 70 indicates that the company ID 50 can produce the product with item ID 52 in the quantity shown in quantity 73 during the period shown in period 72.

[0041] FIG. 6 is an example of a sensitivity analysis scenario in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0042] Sensitivity analysis scenarios are created by performing sensitivity analysis on SC plan information. The plan, period, and degree of change in quantity (rate of change) subject to sensitivity analysis can be determined manually or statistically from past history.

[0043] For example, the target plan may be the plan that has been changed the most in the past, the period to be changed may be determined using a uniform distribution, and the quantity may be calculated using the average and standard deviation from the past change history to generate the fluctuation rate using a normal distribution.

[0044] The scenario ID 80 is stored in association with the plan ID 70, company ID 50, item ID 52, period 72, quantity 73, and fluctuation rate 81.

[0045] FIG. 7 is an example of SC cost information in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0046] The SC cost information is information on costs incurred in the production, shipping, transportation, etc. of a product. Cost ID 90, cost name 91, target start date 92, target end date 93, company ID 50, item ID 52, and unit price 94 are associated and stored.

[0047] FIG. 8 shows an example of a sensitivity analysis result in the embodiment of the present invention.

[0048] The sensitivity analysis execution unit 20 uses the results of a simulation performed by the supply chain simulator 10 using the SC plan information before the change and the SC plan information after the change to determine how much the KPIs in each department in the plan before the change have changed, and stores the results in the sensitivity analysis result 24.

[0049] In this example, shipping cost 100, procurement cost 101, transportation cost 102, and demand fulfillment rate 103 are the KPIs.

[0050] The change in KPI when a change indicated by scenario ID 80 is made to a plan indicated by plan ID 70 in which a company indicated by company ID 50 produces a product indicated by item ID 52 during the period indicated by period 72 is associated and stored.

[0051] The KPI is expressed as a percentage change, and since an increase in the demand fulfillment rate is preferable, the sign is reversed.

[0052] The sensitivity analysis results24 are information on how much the KPIs managed by the related departments that implement the SC plan will change due to a change in the SC plan, and serve as an indicator for knowing what level of change in the SC plan is within the acceptable range for the related departments.

[0053] FIG. 9 shows an example of change tolerance information in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0054] The change tolerance information is calculated by the change tolerance calculation unit 8 using the sensitivity analysis results 24 obtained by the sensitivity analysis execution unit 20 to calculate the change tolerance, which indicates the ease of accepting the changes indicated by the scenario based on the cost fluctuation rate of each scenario.

[0055] For example, a value obtained by normalizing the fluctuation rate between the maximum fluctuation rate and the minimum fluctuation rate is used. In this example, the production cost score 112, procurement cost score 113, transportation cost score 114, and demand fulfillment rate score 115 are stored as normalized values ​​in association with the original plan ID 110, which is the SC plan before the change, company ID 50, item ID 52, period 72, and fluctuation rate 111.

[0056] The fluctuation rates are the results of calculations performed by the supply chain simulator 10, but scores based on conditions between fluctuation rates that are not calculated by the supply chain simulator 10 are predicted using a statistical method such as regression analysis, and the obtained results are stored.

[0057] FIG. 10 is an example of plan change bias information in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0058] The plan change bias information is information that stores a bias, which is a numerical value created based on learning of the changes that were agreed upon by each department in actual SC plan changes.

[0059] In this example, date bias 126 and quantity bias 127 are the biases, with date bias 126 indicating the number of days changed from the plan before the change, and quantity bias 127 indicating the percentage change from the production / transportation quantity before the change.

[0060] The bias information is stored by associating the change details and biases, such as the original plan ID 110, plan date 120, company ID 50, item ID 52, change target date 121, desired change amount 122, desired future change date 123, post-agreement date 124, and post-agreement quantity 125.

[0061] Since the difficulty of production and transportation changes depending on the economic environment at the time, it is effective to use the most recent bias based on the date of agreement.

[0062] In addition, because whether or not the changes are agreed upon depends on the people in charge in each department, regular reviews based on personnel transfer information are necessary.

[0063] FIG. 11 is an example of an output screen in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0064] It is created on the user display unit 11, and transmitted from the network interface 6 via the network 2 to the display unit 37 of the terminal operated by the person in charge at the company 3 related to the SC plan.

[0065] The target SC plan is displayed in the change target receiving unit 130. It is displayed as a bar graph with weeks on the horizontal axis and the shipping volume of each item on the vertical axis.

[0066] When the person in charge judges that the SC plan needs to be changed, the item requiring the change is selected from the item menu 134 and the heat map display button 135 is pressed, whereby the heat map of the item is displayed in the heat map display section 29.

[0067] The heat map shows weeks on the horizontal axis and shipping volume (shaded area) on the vertical axis, with a heat map showing the difficulty of increasing shipping volume above the shipping volume.

[0068] A heat map is created for each task, such as the shipping cost heat map shown in Figure 13 and the procurement cost heat map shown in Figure 14. In this example, the higher the score, the darker the color, and the lower the score, the lighter the color.

[0069] A low score indicates poor cost performance, making it difficult for the department in charge to accept the change, whereas a high score indicates high cost performance, making it easier for the department in charge to accept the change.

[0070] The final heat map displayed is a combination of the heat maps for each task.

[0071] For example, in the case of transportation, there is a limit to the number of products that can be transported at one time, and if the number exceeds what can be loaded onto a single truck, additional trucks will be required, and there is a point at which costs rise sharply. Therefore, it is possible to know the boundary value of the number using a heat map.

[0072] In addition, when the number of products that can be produced during normal working hours is exceeded, production must be carried out during overtime hours, resulting in additional labor costs. Such boundary values ​​can also be seen in the heat map.

[0073] The person in charge refers to the shading of the heat map, selects a desired change source 136, which is the period for reducing the shipping volume, a desired change destination 137, which is the period for increasing the shipping volume, and a desired change number 138, which is the quantity to be changed, and selects from a change content menu 139 either an upward revision to increase the production volume itself, a downward revision to decrease the production volume itself, or a timing change to change only the production period without changing the production volume.

[0074] After selecting the menu, the notification button 140 is used to notify each department of the changes.

[0075] The person in charge who receives the changes makes adjustments with the person who made the changes in the plan adjustment chat section 30 and decides on possible changes.

[0076] The decided change contents are registered by inputting the change destination 141 after confirmation and the confirmed quantity 142 in the confirmed plan receiving unit 31 and pressing the Confirm button 143. If the change contents menu 139 is a time change, the quantity is input for each of the time to decrease and the time to increase, and the Confirm button 143 is pressed.

[0077] FIG. 12 is an example of a flowchart showing the process of the decision support system in the embodiment of the present invention.

[0078] A simulation model is constructed (S1) from SC master information 32. Next, a sensitivity analysis scenario 23 is generated (S2) from SC planning information 34.

[0079] Sensitivity analysis is performed (S3) based on the simulation model, sensitivity analysis scenario 23, and SC cost information 33 to obtain sensitivity analysis results 24. Change tolerance information is created from the sensitivity analysis results 24 (S4), and change tolerance information 35 is updated by regression analysis (S5).

[0080] The SC plan change target is accepted from the user display unit (S6). A heat map is generated and displayed for the item to be changed (S7). The change content is finalized through coordination between the person in charge of the department that made the change and the person in charge of the department that will implement the change in the plan coordination chat unit. Coordination can be done by email, voice call, or other means.

[0081] Information on changes made after the plan is finalized is accepted, plan change bias information is generated, and change tolerance information is updated (S8). [Explanation of symbols]

[0082] 1 decision support system, 2 network, 3 company, 4 main memory, 5 external memory, 6 network interface, 7 CPU, 8 change tolerance calculation unit, 9 plan arbitration unit, 10 supply chain simulator, 11 user display unit, 12 input / output unit, 20 sensitivity analysis execution unit, 21 heat map information generation unit, 22 bias information generation unit, 23 sensitivity analysis scenario, 24 sensitivity analysis result, 25 plan change notification unit, 26 communication unit between stakeholders, 27 information after plan confirmation, 28 change reception unit, 29 heat map display unit, 30 plan adjustment chat unit, 31 confirmed plan reception unit, 32 SC master information, 33 SC cost information, 34 SC plan information, 35 change tolerance information, 36 plan change bias information

Claims

1. A decision support system for supporting changes to a supply chain (SC) execution plan involving multiple organizations, comprising: An SC simulator that creates an SC execution plan; a change receiving unit that receives changes to the SC execution plan created by the SC simulator; a sensitivity analysis execution unit that calculates the degree of impact of changes to the SC implementation plan on indicators managed by the relevant department that implements the SC implementation plan and stores the results of the sensitivity analysis; a change tolerance calculation unit that generates change tolerance information by normalizing a result of the sensitivity analysis; and an output unit that adds the change tolerance information calculated by the change tolerance calculation unit to the SC execution plan and outputs the plan.

2. 2. The decision support system of claim 1, The change reception department accepts the products to be increased, The change tolerance calculation unit calculates change tolerances for multiple organizations corresponding to the shipping time and shipping volume of the product accepted by the change acceptance unit, a heat map information generating unit for generating heat map information for generating a heat map in which the obtained change tolerances of a plurality of tissues are superimposed; The output section is a decision support system that outputs a heat map that overlays the change tolerance of multiple organizations and associates it with the SC implementation plan.

3. 3. The decision support system according to claim 2, The Change Reception Department will accept changes to the shipping schedule and volume of products to be increased, The SC simulator creates an SC execution plan based on the shipping time and shipping volume of the product accepted by the change acceptance department, A decision support system equipped with a plan change notification unit that sends the created SC implementation plan to multiple organizations.

4. 4. The decision support system according to claim 3, A stakeholder notification unit is provided that receives consent or rejection of the SC implementation plan sent by the plan change notification unit, The output section is a decision support system that outputs the SC implementation plan sent as a final plan when the consent of all organizations is obtained.

5. 4. The decision support system according to claim 3, When the Stakeholder Notification Unit has obtained consent from the organizations related to the SC Action Plan for the re-created SC Action Plan, A decision support system comprising a bias information generation unit that calculates the difference between the changes contained in the SC execution plan sent by the change tolerance calculation unit and the changes contained in the SC execution plan for which consent has been obtained from related organizations, and stores the difference in the difference as plan change bias information in a memory unit.

6. 4. The decision support system according to claim 3, The change tolerance calculation unit is a decision support system that calculates the change tolerance of multiple organizations corresponding to the shipping timing and shipping volume of the product accepted by the change acceptance unit, based on the plan change bias information stored in the memory unit.

7. A decision support method for supporting changes to a supply chain (SC) execution plan involving multiple organizations, comprising: The SC simulator creates the SC execution plan, The change acceptance unit accepts changes to the SC execution plan created by the SC simulator, The sensitivity analysis execution department determines the degree of impact that changes to the SC implementation plan have on the indicators managed by the relevant departments that implement the SC implementation plan, and stores the results in the sensitivity analysis. The change tolerance calculation unit creates change tolerance information by normalizing the sensitivity analysis results, A decision support method in which an output unit adds the change tolerance calculated by the change tolerance calculation unit to the SC execution plan and outputs it.

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