Information processing system, information processing method, and program

Abstract

To provide an information processing system, an information processing method, and a program capable of supporting a user to determine a countermeasure against a disaster.SOLUTION: An information processing system according to one aspect includes an acquisition unit configured to acquire risk information of a disaster related to a place where a management target managed by a manager is present, a selection unit configured to select one or more countermeasures for suppressing damage caused by the disaster based on the risk information, a calculation unit configured to calculate a profit of the manager generated when at least one of the one or more countermeasures is executed, and an output unit configured to output the one or more countermeasures and the profit.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to an information processing system, an information processing method, and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] Implementing measures to prepare for disasters such as earthquakes and floods is essential in modern times. In particular, in recent years, as climate change progresses, disaster risks are expected to increase more than ever before. As a result, technology to assess disaster risks is advancing.

[0003] For example, Patent Document 1 discloses an evaluation system that evaluates the difference between the amount of direct loss in the event of a disaster in current facilities and the amount of direct loss in the event of a disaster in facilities after countermeasures have been implemented, and compares the difference with the cost of disaster countermeasure equipment. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2004-280444 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] In the evaluation system according to Patent Document 1, it may be unclear to the user what kind of disaster countermeasures should be implemented.

[0006] One of the objectives that the embodiments of the present disclosure aim to achieve is to provide an information processing system, an information processing method, and a program that can support a user in determining countermeasures for a disaster. It should be noted that this objective is only one of the objectives that the embodiments disclosed herein aim to achieve. Other objectives or problems and novel features will become apparent from the description of this specification or the accompanying drawings. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] An information processing system according to one aspect includes: An acquisition means for acquiring disaster risk information related to a location where a management object managed by the manager exists; a selection means for selecting one or more countermeasures for suppressing damage caused by the disaster based on the risk information; a calculation means for calculating a profit to be generated by the manager when at least one of the one or more countermeasures is implemented; and an output means for outputting the one or more countermeasures and the profit.

[0008] An information processing method according to one aspect includes: A step in which an acquisition means acquires disaster risk information related to a location where a management object managed by the manager exists; a step in which a selection means selects one or more countermeasures for suppressing damage caused by the disaster based on the risk information; a step in which a calculation means calculates a profit of the manager that will be generated when at least one of the one or more countermeasures is implemented; an output means for outputting the one or more countermeasures and the benefit; The present invention relates to a computer-implemented information processing method.

[0009] According to one aspect, the program causes a computer to: an acquisition means for acquiring disaster risk information related to the location where the management object under the management of the manager is located; a selection means for selecting one or more countermeasures for suppressing damage caused by the disaster based on the risk information; A calculation means for calculating the profit of the manager that will be generated when at least one of the one or more countermeasures is implemented; and an output means for outputting the one or more countermeasures and the profit; Function as. [Effects of the Invention]

[0010] The present disclosure makes it possible to provide an information processing system, an information processing method, and a program that can assist a user in determining countermeasures against disasters. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0011] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating an example of an information processing system according to the present disclosure. [Figure 2] 1 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a typical process of the information processing system. [Figure 3] FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a merchandise creation system according to the present disclosure. [Figure 4] FIG. 1 illustrates the relationships between the parties in the generated financial product. [Figure 5] 10 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a financial product creation process of the product creation system. [Figure 6] 10 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a payment determination process of the merchandise production system. [Figure 7] FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a merchandise creation system according to the present disclosure. [Figure 8] FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating an example of an insurance response system according to the present disclosure. [Figure 9] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating the relationship between the parties in insurance. [Figure 10] 10 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a countermeasure decision process of the insurance response system. [Figure 11] FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating an example of an insurance response system according to the present disclosure. [Figure 12] FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of an information processing device in which processing of the system is executed. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0012] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present disclosure will be described with reference to the drawings. Note that the following descriptions and drawings in the embodiments have been omitted or simplified as appropriate for clarity of explanation. Furthermore, in this disclosure, unless otherwise specified, when multiple items are defined as "at least one of multiple items," the definition may mean any one item, or any multiple items including all items.

[0013] Each drawing referenced in the embodiments is merely an example for describing one or more embodiments. Each drawing may not relate to only one particular embodiment, but may also relate to one or more other embodiments. As will be understood by those skilled in the art, various features or steps described with reference to any one drawing can be combined with features or steps shown in one or more other drawings to create, for example, an embodiment not explicitly shown or described. Not all features or steps shown in any one drawing are necessarily required to describe an exemplary embodiment, and some features or steps may be omitted. The order of steps described in any drawing may be changed as appropriate.

[0014] Embodiment 1 [Configuration Description] 1 is a block diagram showing an example of an information processing system according to the present disclosure. The information processing system 100 includes an acquisition unit 102, a selection unit 104, a calculation unit 106, and an output unit 108. Each unit will be described below.

[0015] The acquisition unit 102 acquires disaster risk information related to a location where a managed object managed by an administrator is located. The administrator may be an individual or a corporation such as a business operator, insurance company, or local government. The administrator may own or occupy the managed object, or may have some restricted real right (e.g., surface right or pledge) regarding the managed object. The managed object may also be the subject of some kind of contract such as insurance, or may belong to an area under the administrator's administrative jurisdiction. The managed object may be, for example, one or more tangible objects, or may be a certain area. The tangible object may include, for example, at least any of the following: Movable property such as vehicles, machinery, furniture, daily necessities, artwork, documents, banknotes and securities Private buildings such as homes and commercial facilities Public buildings such as schools, hospitals, and government offices -Structures such as roads, bridges, dams, floodgates, and levees - Transportation, electricity, gas, water, communications and other infrastructure People, livestock and other traded animals, crops and other traded plants - Natural environments that should be preserved, such as forests Public buildings, structures, and infrastructure for daily life are collectively referred to as infrastructure. When the area under management is a specified area, it is assumed that a large number of infrastructures are included within the area.

[0016] Disaster risk information related to the location of the managed object is, for example, information indicating the possibility and scale of a disaster occurring in the area where the managed building or infrastructure is located. Potential disasters include, but are not limited to, earthquakes, tsunamis, water damage (such as floods, heavy rain, and high tides), heavy snowfall, tornadoes, landslides, and fires.

[0017] The selection unit 104 selects one or more countermeasures for reducing damage caused by a disaster related to the risk information, based on the risk information acquired by the acquisition unit 102. The countermeasures may vary depending on the disaster. For example, if there is a risk of flooding due to a typhoon, short-term countermeasures for the managed object may include evacuating vehicles, piling sandbags around buildings, and closing floodgates and roads to prevent damage. Other short-term countermeasures for saving lives may include issuing an alert to encourage evacuation and establishing evacuation shelters. Long-term countermeasures for the managed object may include construction, demolition, inspection, or repair work on buildings or infrastructure, and the development of a disaster prevention information system or a business continuity plan. Note that short-term countermeasures are measures implemented, for example, on an hourly or daily basis, while long-term countermeasures are measures implemented, for example, on a monthly or annual basis.

[0018] The selection unit 104 may select one or more countermeasure plans from among countermeasure plan candidates stored in the information processing system 100, or may select one or more countermeasure plan candidates from among countermeasure plan candidates acquired from outside the information processing system 100. Alternatively, the selection unit 104 may select one or more countermeasure plans by generating information about the countermeasure plans.

[0019] The calculation unit 106 calculates the manager's profit that will be generated when at least one of the one or more selected countermeasures (hereinafter also referred to as selected countermeasures) is implemented. The manager's profit is calculated using, for example, the following formula. P=AB (1) Here, P is the profit, A is the loss incurred by the manager due to the disaster if the selected countermeasure plan is not implemented, and B is the loss incurred by the manager due to the disaster if the selected countermeasure plan is implemented. Loss A and Loss B are expressed as positive values.

[0020] The calculation unit 106 may calculate the net profit of the manager that will be generated when at least one of the selected countermeasures is implemented, instead of or in addition to the profit P. The net profit Q is calculated using, for example, the following formula. Q = A - (B + C) (2) C is the burden (i.e., loss) to the manager resulting from the implementation of the selected countermeasure, and is expressed as a positive value. The profit P, net profit Q, loss A, loss B, and burden C shown above are expressed in any unit that can be converted into a monetary value.

[0021] Losses include at least either direct or indirect damage caused by a disaster to buildings, infrastructure, or the natural environment. Direct damage refers to physical damage caused by a disaster to buildings and infrastructure (for example, repair costs for damage or destruction, or costs for removing debris). On the other hand, indirect damage includes non-physical losses caused by a disaster, such as disruption of transportation networks, suspension of supply chains, decline in the value of tangible assets, and decline in local economic activity. Below, we will explain examples of each of items (1) and (2) when considering flooding as a disaster risk.

[0022] (i) Assume that the manager is an insurance company and the managed object is a vehicle that is the subject of an insurance contract. The selected countermeasure is to move the vehicle from a location where flooding occurs to a safe location where flooding does not occur. In this case, loss A is the insurance money that the insurance company will pay to the owner if the owner's vehicle is submerged in water and breaks down. The insurance money can be, for example, the cost of repairs or the cost of a replacement. On the other hand, loss B is the insurance money that the insurance company will pay to the owner for losses that occur if the vehicle is moved based on the selected countermeasure and then flooding occurs, and can be, for example, 0. Burden C is the burden incurred by the insurance company when the vehicle is moved. For example, it could be a bonus that the insurance company pays to the owner when the vehicle is moved.

[0023] (ii) Assume that the manager is an insurance company and the object of management is a building that is the subject of an insurance contract. The selected countermeasure is to pile sandbags around the building. In this case, loss A is the insurance money that the insurance company will pay to the owner if their building is flooded. On the other hand, loss B is the insurance money that the insurance company will pay to the owner for the loss that occurs if the selected countermeasure is implemented and flood damage occurs. Burden C is the burden incurred by the insurance company when the owner piles sandbags. For example, this would be the reward that the insurance company pays to the owner when they pile sandbags.

[0024] The rewards shown in (i) and (ii) are examples of incentives, which will be described later, and will be paid when the insurance company confirms that the owner has implemented the selected countermeasures. The amount of this reward can be changed as appropriate.

[0025] (iii) Assume that the manager is the vehicle owner and the vehicle is the object of management. The existence of vehicle insurance is not taken into consideration. In this case, loss A is the repair cost or replacement cost paid by the owner if the vehicle breaks down due to flooding. On the other hand, loss B is the loss incurred due to flooding when the vehicle is moved based on the selected countermeasure plan, and is, for example, 0. Burden C is the burden incurred by the owner when the vehicle is moved, such as fuel costs for travel and parking fees.

[0026] (iv) Assume that the administrator is a local government and the area to be managed is the area managed by that local government. In addition, here, the short-term selected measures are assumed to be the closure of floodgates, the establishment of evacuation shelters, and the issuance of evacuation orders. In this case, loss A is the expenditure of the local government that would occur if property and human damage were to occur due to flooding when the selected measures are not implemented (for example, rescue costs, recovery costs, and subsidies paid to local residents). On the other hand, loss B is the expenditure of the local government that would occur if property and human damage were to occur due to flooding when the selected measures are implemented. Burden C is the burden imposed on the local government when the floodgates are closed and evacuation shelters are established.

[0027] (v) Assume that the administrator is a local government and the area under management is the one managed by that local government. In this case, the long-term selected measure is assumed to be flood control works (infrastructure development) such as the construction of levees and floodgates. In this case, loss A is the expenditure of the local government that would be incurred if property and human damage were to occur due to flooding when the selected measure is not implemented. On the other hand, loss B is the expenditure of the local government that would be incurred if property and human damage were to occur due to flooding when the selected measure is implemented. Burden C is the burden imposed on the local government during the flood control works.

[0028] (vi) Assume that the manager is the building owner and the building is the object of management. The long-term selected countermeasure is flood control construction, such as the construction of levees and floodgates. Other selected countermeasures may include flood control construction, such as the development of drainage facilities like sewers, as well as disaster prevention construction, such as the installation of windbreaks, revetments, and strengthening of seawalls and levees, and ground improvement work to prevent landslides and liquefaction. Here, it is assumed that the flood control construction work will be funded by private businesses. In this case, Loss A is the expenditure of the local government that would be incurred if property and human damage were caused by a flood even if the selected countermeasure was not implemented. Loss B is the expenditure of the local government that would be incurred if property and human damage were caused by a flood even if the selected countermeasure was implemented. Furthermore, new carbon dioxide emissions are expected to be generated by construction work and other activities during recovery and reconstruction from the property damage caused by the disaster. Loss A and Loss B may include the cost of offsetting the expected carbon dioxide emissions. Burden C is the burden paid by the owner for the flood control construction work.

[0029] In either case, when comparing loss A and loss B, the difference is whether or not the selected countermeasure plan is implemented, so loss B is expected to be significantly lower than loss A. Therefore, even when taking into account the existence of burden C, it is thought that a positive net profit Q will be generated.

[0030] Note that, before the selection unit 104 selects one or more countermeasure plans, the calculation unit 106 may calculate at least one of the profit P or net profit Q of the manager that will be generated if each candidate countermeasure plan to be selected by the selection unit 104 is implemented. In other words, either the processing of the selection unit 104 or the processing of the calculation unit 106 may be executed first.

[0031] The output unit 108 outputs, as output information, one or more countermeasures selected by the selection unit 104 and at least one of the profit P or the net profit Q calculated by the calculation unit 106 for the one or more countermeasures. The output unit 108 may further include, in the output information, a loss A (disadvantage) that will occur if the countermeasures are not implemented. The output unit 108 may output the output information to another processing unit within the information processing system 100. Alternatively, the output unit 108 may notify the user of the output information using a visual display, a printout, a voice, or the like. The output may be provided to the administrator or to a target other than the administrator (for example, an insurance policyholder or an investor in a financial product).

[0032] [Flow description] 2 is a flowchart showing an example of a representative process of the information processing system 100. This flowchart explains the process of the information processing system 100. Note that the details of each process are as described above, and therefore will not be explained as appropriate.

[0033] The acquisition unit 102 acquires risk information about disasters related to the location where the management target is located (step S12). The selection unit 104 selects one or more countermeasures to mitigate damage caused by disasters based on the risk information acquired in step S12 (step S14). The calculation unit 106 calculates the profit (profit P or net profit Q) of the manager that will be generated when at least one of the selected one or more countermeasures is implemented (step S16). The output unit 108 outputs the one or more countermeasures and the profit (step S18). Note that the process of step S14 and the process of step S16 may be executed either first, or both processes may be executed in parallel.

[0034] [Effect description] As described above, the information processing system 100 outputs one or more countermeasures and at least one of the corresponding profit P or net profit Q. Based on the output information, the user can determine whether to implement a countermeasure or which countermeasure to implement based on the profit. Therefore, the information processing system 100 can support the user in determining countermeasures for disasters.

[0035] Furthermore, the information processing system 100 may also output information on the loss A. In this way, the information processing system 100 can prompt the user to take measures by presenting the user with the loss that would occur if measures were not taken.

[0036] The information processing system 100 may be configured as a single computer device, or may be configured as a distributed system having multiple computer devices. In a distributed system, the processing performed by the information processing system 100 can be shared and executed by multiple computer devices. In other words, the information processing system 100 may be realized by distributing and installing the acquisition unit 102 to the output unit 108 in two or more computer devices, and enabling the two or more computer devices to communicate with each other.

[0037] Some or all of the components of the information processing system 100 may be provided in a cloud server constructed on a cloud, or in other types of virtualized servers generated using virtualization technology, etc. Functions other than those provided in servers such as cloud servers or virtualized servers are placed on the edge.

[0038] In each of the following embodiments, a specific example of the information processing system 100 described in the first embodiment will be disclosed. However, the specific example of the information processing system 100 described in the first embodiment is not limited to the one shown below. Furthermore, the configurations and processes described below are merely examples, and are not limited to these.

[0039] Embodiment 2 (2A) [Configuration Description] 3 is a block diagram showing an example of a product creation system according to the present disclosure. Product creation system 200 includes an acquisition unit 202, an effect calculation unit 204, a measure selection unit 206, a beneficiary identification unit 208, a product design unit 210, an output unit 212, and a storage unit 214. Product creation system 200 is a system operated by, for example, a business operator that provides financial products (e.g., a securities company or a fund).

[0040] The acquisition unit 202 acquires risk information about disasters related to the area that is the target of the financial product, and information about multiple countermeasures to mitigate damage caused to the target area by the disaster (hereinafter also referred to as countermeasure information). The risk information and countermeasure information may be stored in the storage unit 214, or the acquisition unit 202 may acquire them from outside the product creation system 200. Alternatively, as shown in (2B), the product creation system 200 may generate the risk information and countermeasure information.

[0041] Risk information indicates the risk of disasters occurring in a target area from a long-term perspective. Risk information includes, for example, the period covered by the risk (for example, several years to several decades), the probability of a disaster occurring within that period, the expected scale of the disaster, and details of the damage. Details of the damage indicate the estimated loss of property and human damage caused by the disaster. Losses are expressed, for example, as the amount of damage.

[0042] The countermeasure information includes countermeasure actions planned to mitigate damage caused by a disaster as countermeasure proposals. The countermeasure proposals here are long-term countermeasure proposals, and as described above, include construction, demolition, inspection or repair work on buildings or infrastructure, disaster prevention information systems, and the development of business continuity plans. Here, it is assumed that there are multiple countermeasure proposals. The countermeasure information also includes information on the expected scale of the disaster and details of the damage that would occur if each countermeasure proposal were implemented. The information on the details of the damage is as described above, and losses are expressed, for example, as the amount of damage. The countermeasure information also includes information on the cost and time required to complete each countermeasure proposal.

[0043] The risk information and countermeasure information are generated by computer simulation based on meteorological data and local geographical data, and are displayed as, for example, a hazard map.

[0044] Furthermore, if the expected scale of a disaster is the same, the losses indicated in the countermeasures information are likely to be less than those indicated in the risk information. This is because the countermeasures proposed in the countermeasures information are expected to reduce damage caused by the disaster.

[0045] The effect calculation unit 204 uses the risk information and the countermeasure information to calculate, for each proposed countermeasure, the amount of loss that is expected to be reduced by the proposed countermeasure indicated in the countermeasure information. The risk information includes information on loss A, and the countermeasure information includes information on loss B and burden C. The effect calculation unit 204 calculates at least either profit P or net profit Q as the amount of loss that is expected to be reduced by the proposed countermeasure. The effect calculation unit 204 outputs the calculation result to the countermeasure selection unit 206.

[0046] The type of disaster assumed in the risk information and the type of disaster assumed in the countermeasure information to be compared are the same. When the scale of the disaster assumed in the risk information and the scale of the disaster assumed in the countermeasure information are the same, the effect calculation unit 204 can use the information on the details of the damage in the risk information and the information on the details of the damage in the countermeasure information as information on loss A and information on loss B. When the scale of the disaster assumed in the risk information and the scale of the disaster assumed in the countermeasure information are different, the effect calculation unit 204 unifies the two scales to the same by changing at least one of the scales. Then, in response to changing the scale of the disaster, the effect calculation unit 204 changes the information on the details of the damage corresponding to the information on the changed scale of the disaster. After the change, the effect calculation unit 204 uses the information on the details of the damage in the risk information and the information on the details of the damage in the countermeasure information as information on loss A and information on loss B.

[0047] The effect calculation unit 204 may further use at least one of the period subject to the risk included in the risk information, the probability of a disaster occurring, or the period required to complete the countermeasure plan included in the countermeasure information (hereinafter also referred to as the completion period) to calculate the profit P or net profit Q.

[0048] For example, assume that the period required to complete infrastructure construction, which is a countermeasure proposal, is five years, and the probability of a disaster occurring within that period (i.e., within five years) is equal to or greater than a predetermined value (e.g., 50% or greater). In this case, the effect calculation unit 204 determines that there is a high probability that a disaster will occur before the infrastructure construction is completed. The effect calculation unit 204 evaluates the loss B used in the calculation of (1) or (2) higher than the loss B that would occur if a disaster occurred after the infrastructure construction is completed. For example, the effect calculation unit 204 may evaluate the loss B used in the calculation of (1) or (2) to be the same amount as the loss A. Furthermore, the effect calculation unit 204 evaluates the burden C used in the calculation of (2) lower than the burden C required until the infrastructure construction is completed.

[0049] On the other hand, if the period required to complete the proposed infrastructure construction is five years and the probability of a disaster occurring within five years is less than a predetermined value, the effect calculation unit 204 evaluates the loss B used in the calculation of (1) or (2) as the loss B that would occur if a disaster were to occur after the infrastructure construction is completed. Also, the effect calculation unit 204 evaluates the burden C used in (2) as the burden C required until the infrastructure construction is completed.

[0050] The countermeasure selection unit 206 selects one or more countermeasure plans for reducing damage caused by a disaster based on the calculation results of the effect calculation unit 204. For example, the countermeasure selection unit 206 selects, from among the multiple countermeasure plans, those that result in a positive profit P or net profit Q (hereinafter also referred to as primary selection). Then, the countermeasure selection unit 206 further selects one or more countermeasure plans from the selected countermeasure plans (hereinafter also referred to as secondary selection).

[0051] For example, in the second selection, the countermeasure selection unit 206 selects one countermeasure from among the multiple countermeasures selected in the first selection. Here, only one of the multiple countermeasures can be implemented based on physical or budgetary constraints. The physical or budgetary constraints may be set, for example, in the form of a contract between the administrator and a business operator that provides financial products. The countermeasure selection unit 206 can select one countermeasure from among the multiple countermeasures based on the contract information.

[0052] Here, the measure selection unit 206 may select one measure based on at least one of the profit P, net profit Q, burden C, and completion period of each measure. For example, the measure selection unit 206 may select either the measure that maximizes the profit P, net profit Q, or the value obtained by dividing the profit P or net profit Q by the burden C, or the measure that minimizes either the burden C or the completion period. Alternatively, the measure selection unit 206 may set a function using two or more parameters from the profit P, net profit Q, burden C, and completion period, and select the measure that maximizes or minimizes the value calculated using the function for each measure.

[0053] The countermeasure selection unit 206 determines one countermeasure selected in the secondary selection as the countermeasure (hereinafter also referred to as the target countermeasure) for the financial product. However, the countermeasure selection unit 206 may include two or more countermeasures that can be implemented in parallel in the target countermeasures. Here, the countermeasure selection unit 206 may impose a constraint condition so that at least one of the total burden amount obtained by adding up the burden C of the multiple countermeasures for the financial product or the period required to complete all of the multiple countermeasures is equal to or less than a predetermined value. Instead of or in addition to this constraint condition, the countermeasure selection unit 206 may impose a constraint condition so that the total profit amount obtained by adding up the profit P (or net profit Q) of the multiple countermeasures for the financial product is equal to or greater than a predetermined value.

[0054] The countermeasure selection unit 206 may determine the budget constraints based on, for example, at least one of the budget of the local government that has jurisdiction over the target area or the budget of the financial product to be created. The countermeasure selection unit 206 outputs information on the target countermeasures determined in the above manner to the beneficiary specification unit 208 and the product design unit 210.

[0055] The beneficiary identification unit 208 identifies beneficiaries who will benefit if the target countermeasure plan is implemented. For example, the beneficiary identification unit 208 compares the hazard map indicated by the risk information with the hazard map related to the target countermeasure plan indicated by the countermeasure information. Through this comparison, the beneficiary identification unit 208 identifies at least one of residents or businesses whose damage will be reduced. Alternatively, the beneficiary identification unit 208 may identify one or more local governments that have jurisdiction over the target area whose damage will be reduced if the target countermeasure plan is implemented. In other words, the beneficiaries identified by the beneficiary identification unit 208 may be the entity that implements the target countermeasure plan (i.e., the local government), or may be different from the entity that implements the target countermeasure plan. Furthermore, the beneficiary identification unit 208 may calculate the amount of benefit for each beneficiary if the target countermeasure plan is implemented by comparing the hazard maps.

[0056] The beneficiary identification unit 208 outputs identification information, which is information that identifies the identified beneficiaries, and detailed information required when creating a financial product with the beneficiaries as the contract subject, to the product design unit 210. The detailed information may include the amount of profit for each beneficiary when the target countermeasure plan is implemented.

[0057] The product design unit 210 generates a financial product based on information about the target countermeasure plan. For example, the product design unit 210 determines parameters that indicate the characteristics of the financial product based on risk information (e.g., the probability of a disaster occurring within a specified period of time) or at least one of the total burden of the target countermeasure plan, the period until all countermeasure plans are completed, or the total profit amount. In this way, the product design unit 210 generates a financial product. The product design unit 210 outputs information about the generated financial product to the output unit 212.

[0058] The parameters to be determined include, for example, at least one of the redemption period, redemption date, beneficiary payment amount, target total asset amount, amount per unit of the financial product (e.g., unit price), dividend (or yield), and term premium, but examples of parameters are not limited to these. The beneficiary payment amount is the total profit amount or the total profit amount minus a predetermined margin, allocated to each beneficiary.

[0059] The product design unit 210 may determine parameters using not only the information described above but also the identification information and detailed information output by the beneficiary identification unit 208. The product design unit 210 may further determine parameters that indicate the characteristics of financial products using at least one of information regarding the contractual provisions between the administrator and the business operator providing the financial product, laws (e.g., the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act), and conditions required by investors. Specific examples of financial products to be generated include, but are not limited to, investment trusts and bonds. An example of a bond is a CAT (Catastrophe) bond.

[0060] The output unit 212 outputs information about the financial product generated by the product design unit 210. The output unit 212 may output the information about the financial product to at least one of the terminals of the beneficiary, the local government that will implement the target countermeasure plan, and the investor.

[0061] The output unit 212 may present detailed information to the beneficiaries, etc., in addition to the information on the financial product. This allows the beneficiaries, etc., to understand how much profit they will make if the financial product is sold and the target countermeasure plan is implemented. Furthermore, the output unit 212 may further include loss A (disadvantage) used in the calculation of (1) or (2) in the detailed information.

[0062] Based on the detailed information provided, the beneficiaries, investors, etc. may request updates to the parameters to be determined or the contractual provisions required for generating a financial product. The product design unit 210 updates the parameters of the financial product to be generated based on this updated information. In other words, the product design unit 210 updates the financial product to be generated. The output unit 212 again outputs the updated information of the financial product. This flow continues until the beneficiaries, investors, etc. no longer request updates to the financial product.

[0063] Figure 4 is a diagram showing the relationships between the parties in the created financial product. Fund Management Company F (hereinafter also referred to as Management Company F), which is the management mechanism for the fund, receives redemption and interest payments from Beneficiary B. The amount of payment to the beneficiary is as described above. Management Company F also receives investment or loans from Investor I. Management Company F transfers all or a portion of the amount received from Beneficiary B and Investor I as disaster response funds to Local Government L, which will implement the target countermeasure plan. Local Government L uses the disaster response funds to implement the infrastructure development outlined in the target countermeasure plan. As a result, the beneficiaries will receive benefits in the event of a disaster.

[0064] When a disaster occurs, the product design department 210 compares the conditions under which the disaster occurred with the contract clauses of the financial product. For example, the product design department 210 determines whether the timing and scale of the actual disaster match the conditions stated in the contract clauses.

[0065] If the timing and scale of the actual disaster match the conditions set forth in the contract clauses, the effect calculation unit 204 estimates the amount of damage that would occur if a disaster with the same conditions were to occur if the infrastructure development had not been implemented. This estimation may be made using the risk information described above. The effect calculation unit 204 calculates an amount by subtracting the current amount of damage (i.e., the amount of damage that would occur if the infrastructure development had been implemented) from the estimated amount of damage. The calculated amount indicates the degree of reduction in the amount of damage caused by the implementation of the infrastructure development, and is an amount that can actually be considered a benefit to the beneficiary. Whether the infrastructure development indicated in the target countermeasure plan has actually been implemented is determined through monitoring by operating company F, etc.

[0066] The product design unit 210 calculates the difference by subtracting the total profit amount determined when the financial product was created from the amount calculated by the effect calculation unit 204. The product design unit 210 then adjusts the parameters of the financial product based on the calculated difference. Parameters to be adjusted include, but are not limited to, the redemption period, redemption date, dividend (or yield), and term premium. For example, the product design unit 210 may define the yield of the financial product to have a monotonically increasing relationship with the calculated difference. The product design unit 210 determines the redemption amount and interest to be paid to investor I based on the adjusted parameters. Operating company F pays the determined redemption amount and interest to investor I, as shown in FIG. 4. The interest to be paid to investor I may be increased or decreased based on the results of the above comparison between the conditions under which the disaster occurred and the contractual terms of the financial product.

[0067] At least one of the effect calculation unit 204, the countermeasure selection unit 206, the beneficiary identification unit 208, and the product design unit 210 may execute the above-described processes using, for example, a trained model stored in the storage unit 214. The model is a model trained by a machine learning technique. For example, the model is trained by inputting training data including information acquired by the effect calculation unit 204 (i.e., risk information and countermeasure information) as sample information and information of the calculation results output by the effect calculation unit 204 as correct label information. After this training, the risk information and countermeasure information to be actually used are input to the model. The model outputs a calculation result corresponding to the risk information and countermeasure information. The effect calculation unit 204 outputs the output calculation result to the countermeasure selection unit 206. The countermeasure selection unit 206, the beneficiary identification unit 208, and the product design unit 210 may also execute the processes of each unit using trained models in a similar manner.

[0068] The trained model may have a configuration including, for example, a neural network. Furthermore, such a model may be generated using a deep learning technique and include layers such as a feature extraction layer and a fully connected layer.

[0069] However, each of the effect calculation unit 204, the countermeasure selection unit 206, the beneficiary identification unit 208, and the product design unit 210 may perform the above processing by using any algorithm, etc., instead of a trained model.

[0070] [Flow description] Fig. 5 is a flowchart showing an example of the financial product creation process of the product creation system 200, and Fig. 6 is a flowchart showing an example of the payment decision process of the product creation system 200. These flowcharts explain the processes of the product creation system 200. Details of each process are as described above, and therefore will not be explained as appropriate.

[0071] First, the processing at the financial product creation stage will be explained using Figure 5. The acquisition unit 202 acquires disaster risk information and countermeasure information for the target area (step S22). The effect calculation unit 204 uses the risk information and countermeasure information to calculate, for each countermeasure plan, the amount of loss that is expected to be reduced by the countermeasure plan (step S24). The countermeasure selection unit 206 selects one or more countermeasure plans for reducing damage caused by the disaster based on the calculation results of the effect calculation unit 204 (step S26).

[0072] The beneficiary identification unit 208 identifies beneficiaries who will benefit if the target countermeasure plan is implemented (step S28). The beneficiary identification unit 208 generates identification information and detailed information in step S28. The product design unit 210 generates a financial product based on the information on the target countermeasure plan, the identification information, and the detailed information (step S30). The output unit 212 outputs information on the financial product generated in step S30 (step S32).

[0073] Next, the processing at the payment decision stage will be explained using Figure 6. When a disaster occurs, the product design unit 210 compares the conditions under which the disaster occurred with the contract terms of the financial product (step S42). If the two do not match (No in step S42), the product creation system 200 does not perform any special processing.

[0074] If the two match (Yes in step S42), the effect calculation unit 204 estimates the amount of damage that would occur if a disaster with the same conditions were to occur if the target countermeasure plan were not implemented (step S44). The effect calculation unit 204 calculates the reduction in the amount of damage that would occur as a result of the target countermeasure plan being implemented from the estimated amount of damage (step S46). The product design unit 210 adjusts the parameters of the financial product based on the amount calculated by the effect calculation unit 204 (step S48). The product design unit 210 determines the redemption amount and interest to be paid to investor I based on the adjusted parameters (step S50).

[0075] [Effect description] As disaster risk increases with the progression of climate change, adaptation finance schemes are being considered to allocate funds to efforts to address this risk or to hedge against the risk. The realization of such schemes is expected to increase the likelihood of obtaining long-term, stable returns while reducing uncertainty arising in businesses, regions, and society.

[0076] As described above, when disaster prevention measures are introduced in a target area, product creation system 200 can turn the reduction in damage (profit) resulting from the implementation of disaster prevention measures into a service in the form of a financial product. Therefore, product creation system 200 makes it easier to implement disaster prevention measures, and enables the reduction of damage caused by disasters and early recovery, thereby providing benefits to local residents and businesses. In addition, product creation system 200 can also provide profits in the form of yields to investors who purchase financial products.

[0077] Furthermore, the product creation system 200 may select one or more countermeasures based on a contract with the administrator. This allows the product creation system 200 to select countermeasures within the scope of the contract, and allows the user to implement a countermeasure that is easy for the user to implement.

[0078] Furthermore, the product creation system 200 may calculate the manager's profit (profit P or net profit Q) for each proposed measure using the risk information and the measure information. This enables the product creation system 200 to accurately calculate profits. Therefore, the product creation system 200 can also create financial products with appropriate parameters set.

[0079] Furthermore, the product creation system 200 may calculate profits using at least one of the period subject to risk, the probability of disaster occurrence, and the completion period included in the risk information. This enables the product creation system 200 to calculate profits more accurately. Therefore, the product creation system 200 can also create financial products with more appropriate parameters set.

[0080] Furthermore, the product creation system 200 may select one or more countermeasures based on the calculation result (e.g., the manager's profit) of the effect calculation unit 204. This allows the product creation system 200 to reliably select countermeasures that will generate profits. Therefore, the product creation system 200 can also create financial products that have substantial value.

[0081] Furthermore, product creation system 200 may include beneficiary identification unit 208 that identifies beneficiaries who will benefit if the proposed measures are implemented. Product creation system 200 creates financial products based on information about the identified beneficiaries, and therefore can create financial products that are suitable for the beneficiaries.

[0082] (2B) Fig. 7 is a block diagram showing an example of a product creation system according to the present disclosure. Product creation system 200 differs from Fig. 3 in that it includes a risk assessment unit 216 and an effect assessment unit 218 instead of acquisition unit 202. Below, product creation system 200 will be described focusing on the differences from (2A), omitting descriptions of elements and processes common to (2A) as appropriate.

[0083] The risk assessment unit 216 generates risk information for disasters related to the target area of ​​the financial product. The risk information is shown, for example, as a hazard map. The risk assessment unit 216 generates the risk information based on at least one of geographic information of the target area, weather forecasts for the target area for a predetermined period in the future (for example, several years to several decades), and past risk information. For example, if a flood is assumed as a disaster, a forecast of precipitation for a predetermined period is used as the weather forecast, and information on the locations of rivers in the target area and the topography, geology, and buildings in the areas surrounding the rivers is used as the geographic information. The risk assessment unit 216 uses this information to predict the risk of river flooding and flooding in the surrounding area for a predetermined period.

[0084] The effect evaluation unit 218 generates information on details of damage that would occur if each of a plurality of countermeasure plans were implemented, based on the countermeasure plans and the expected scale of the disaster. The effect evaluation unit 218 then generates countermeasure information that includes information on the countermeasure plans, the expected scale of the disaster, and details of damage that would occur if each countermeasure plan were implemented. The effect evaluation unit 218 also includes information on the cost and time required to complete each countermeasure plan in the countermeasure information.

[0085] Further explanation of the risk information and countermeasure information generated as described above is omitted here, as they are as described in (2A). The effect calculation unit 204 uses the generated risk information and countermeasure information as described in (2A) to calculate, for each countermeasure proposal, the amount of loss that is expected to be reduced by the countermeasure proposal indicated in the countermeasure information. As described above, the risk information and countermeasure information can be generated by the product creation system 200. However, either the risk evaluation unit 216 or the effect evaluation unit 218 may be provided in the product creation system 200.

[0086] Embodiment 3 (3A) [Configuration Description] 8 is a block diagram showing an example of an insurance response system according to the present disclosure. The insurance response system 300 includes an acquisition unit 302, a countermeasure selection unit 304, an effect calculation unit 306, an incentive design unit 308, an output unit 310, and a storage unit 312. The insurance response system 300 is a system operated by a business (e.g., an insurance company) that provides insurance related to disasters, for example. Hereinafter, parametric insurance will be assumed as an example of the insurance provided. However, the types of insurance that can be assumed are not limited to this.

[0087] The acquisition unit 302 acquires risk information about a disaster related to the location of the managed object that is the subject of insurance, and information about a plurality of countermeasures for reducing damage to the managed object due to the disaster (hereinafter also referred to as countermeasure information). The risk information and countermeasure information may be stored in the storage unit 312, or the acquisition unit 302 may acquire them from outside the insurance processing system 300. Alternatively, as shown in (3B), the insurance processing system 300 may generate the risk information and countermeasure information.

[0088] The risk information indicates the risk of disasters occurring in the target area from a short-term perspective. The risk information includes, for example, the period for which the risk of disasters is to be assessed (for example, a few seconds to one month), the probability of disasters occurring within that period, the expected scale of the disaster, and details of the damage. The details of the damage are the same as those shown in (2A).

[0089] The countermeasure information includes, as countermeasure proposals, countermeasure actions planned to mitigate damage caused by a disaster. The countermeasure proposals here are short-term countermeasure proposals, and as described above, include vehicle evacuation, stacking sandbags around buildings, and closing floodgates and roads. Other short-term countermeasure proposals include issuing warnings to encourage evacuation and setting up evacuation shelters. Here, it is assumed that there are multiple countermeasure proposals. The countermeasure information also includes information on the expected scale of the disaster and details of the damage that will occur if each countermeasure proposal is implemented. The information on the details of the damage is as described above, and losses are expressed, for example, as damage amounts. Furthermore, the countermeasure information also includes information on the cost and time required to complete each countermeasure proposal. Other detailed descriptions of the risk information and countermeasure information are the same as those shown in embodiment 2.

[0090] Based on the risk information and the countermeasure information, the countermeasure selection unit 304 selects or generates one or more countermeasure plans (actions) to be taken by the managed object or the owner of the managed object. The owner may be, for example, a policyholder of insurance for the managed object.

[0091] For example, the countermeasure selection unit 304 compares the period to be subjected to risk assessment with the completion period of the countermeasure proposal. Then, the countermeasure selection unit 304 selects a countermeasure proposal whose completion period is shorter than the period to be subjected to risk assessment. The countermeasure selection unit 304 may select a countermeasure proposal whose completion period is shorter than the period to be subjected to risk assessment by a predetermined time or more.

[0092] As an example, assume that the managed object is a vehicle, and the risk information indicates that a tsunami may arrive at the location of the vehicle within 20 minutes. Here, the risk information is a hazard map showing information on the geography and buildings near the vehicle. Furthermore, the flood prevention measures included in the countermeasure information include evacuation to an evacuation site at a specified height or higher. Here, the evacuation site is defined in the countermeasure information as being on high ground or a building with a parking lot.

[0093] At this time, the countermeasure selection unit 304 refers to the hazard map and identifies the highest point closest to the vehicle's location and the building of a predetermined height or higher that is closest to the vehicle's location. In this example, the countermeasure selection unit 304 identifies a commercial facility as a building of a predetermined height or higher. The countermeasure selection unit 304 then measures the distance between the vehicle's location and the identified highest point, and the distance between the vehicle's location and the identified commercial facility. The countermeasure selection unit 304 calculates the time it takes for the vehicle to arrive at each evacuation site by dividing each distance by the vehicle's speed (e.g., the speed stored in the memory unit 312).

[0094] For example, the countermeasure selection unit 304 calculates that it will take 25 minutes for the vehicle to reach high ground and 15 minutes for the vehicle to reach the commercial facility. Based on the calculation results, the countermeasure selection unit 304 determines whether the vehicle can arrive at each location within the time limit (i.e., within 20 minutes). In this case, the vehicle can arrive at the commercial facility within 20 minutes. Therefore, the countermeasure selection unit 304 selects that the action to be taken by the vehicle owner is to evacuate to the identified commercial facility. Note that the countermeasure selection unit 304 may set the time limit for the vehicle to arrive to less than 20 minutes instead of 20 minutes, thereby identifying a location where the vehicle can evacuate with ample time to spare. Note that similar calculations are possible when the object to be managed is not a vehicle but a person, etc.

[0095] The countermeasure selection unit 304 may generate a countermeasure plan based on the countermeasure information. For example, it is assumed that the countermeasure information indicates a countermeasure plan to evacuate to an evacuation site at a predetermined height or higher, but does not specify the type of location of the evacuation site. In this case, the countermeasure selection unit 304 refers to information on a hazard map of the area around the vehicle's location as a specific example of an evacuation site. As a result, the countermeasure selection unit 304 identifies a high ground or a building with a parking lot as an evacuation site at a predetermined height or higher around the vehicle's location. Then, the countermeasure selection unit 304 generates a countermeasure plan for flood damage included in the countermeasure information as evacuation to a high ground or a building with a parking lot at a predetermined height or higher.

[0096] When evacuating a vehicle, the countermeasure selection unit 304 may calculate the time it takes for the vehicle to arrive at each evacuation site by taking into consideration not only the distance between the vehicle and the evacuation site but also the road conditions between the vehicle and the evacuation site. For example, the countermeasure selection unit 304 refers to a hazard map and identifies commercial facility A and commercial facility B as buildings of a predetermined height or higher that are within a predetermined distance from the vehicle's location. Then, the countermeasure selection unit 304 measures the distance between the vehicle's location and commercial facility A and the distance between the vehicle's location and commercial facility B. The countermeasure selection unit 304 also grasps the road conditions between the vehicle's location and commercial facility A and between the vehicle's location and commercial facility B. Based on the measured distance and road conditions, the countermeasure selection unit 304 calculates that it will take the vehicle to reach commercial facility A in 23 minutes and the vehicle to reach commercial facility B in 17 minutes. Based on the calculation result, the countermeasure selection unit 304 selects evacuation to the identified commercial facility B as the action to be taken by the vehicle owner. The information on road conditions can be acquired by the acquisition unit 302 via the Internet, for example.

[0097] Furthermore, the countermeasure selection unit 304 may use the risk information and the countermeasure information to calculate, for each countermeasure proposal, the amount of loss that is expected to be reduced by the countermeasure proposal. The risk information includes information on loss A, and the countermeasure information includes information on loss B and burden C. The countermeasure selection unit 304 calculates profit P or net profit Q as the amount of loss that is expected to be reduced by the countermeasure proposal. The countermeasure selection unit 304 may select, from among the multiple countermeasure proposals, at least one of the countermeasure proposals that maximizes profit P or net profit Q, or the countermeasure proposal that minimizes burden C.

[0098] As an example, assume that the managed object is a vehicle, and the risk information indicates that there is a possibility of flooding occurring in the location of the vehicle in two days. Details of the risk information are as described above. Furthermore, assume that the countermeasure information includes two flood prevention countermeasures, each of which has the same risk avoidance effect: evacuating to higher ground above a predetermined height and evacuating to a building above a predetermined height. For example, the countermeasure selection unit 304 determines that the fuel cost required to evacuate to higher ground is lower than the fuel cost required to evacuate to a building above a predetermined height. In this case, the countermeasure selection unit 304 selects evacuating to higher ground as the action to be taken by the vehicle owner. Alternatively, if the fuel cost required to evacuate to higher ground is equal to or less than a predetermined amount, the countermeasure selection unit 304 may select evacuating to higher ground as the action to be taken by the vehicle owner.

[0099] The countermeasure selection unit 304 may select one countermeasure from multiple countermeasures. Here, only one of the multiple countermeasures can be implemented based on physical or budgetary constraints. The countermeasure selection unit 304 may select one countermeasure based on at least one of the profit P, net profit Q, burden C, and completion period for each countermeasure. For example, the countermeasure selection unit 304 may select the countermeasure that maximizes the profit P, net profit Q, or the value obtained by dividing the profit P or net profit Q by the burden C, or the countermeasure that minimizes either the burden C or the completion period. Alternatively, the countermeasure selection unit 304 may set a function using two or more parameters from the profit P, net profit Q, burden C, and completion period, and select the countermeasure that maximizes or minimizes the value calculated using the function for each countermeasure. Note that if the period to be assessed for risk is shorter than a predetermined period, the countermeasure selection unit 304 may select a countermeasure without using at least one of the profit P, net profit Q, and burden C for each countermeasure.

[0100] However, the countermeasure selection unit 304 may include multiple countermeasures that can be implemented in parallel in the countermeasure proposals. Here, the countermeasure selection unit 304 may impose a constraint condition so that at least one of the total burden amount obtained by adding up the burden C of the multiple countermeasure proposals or the period required to complete all of the multiple countermeasure proposals is equal to or less than a predetermined value. Instead of or in addition to this constraint condition, the countermeasure selection unit 304 may impose a constraint condition so that the total profit amount obtained by adding up the profit P (or net profit Q) of the multiple countermeasure proposals is equal to or greater than a predetermined value.

[0101] Furthermore, the countermeasure selection unit 304 may select one or more countermeasure proposals based on contract information between the administrator and the insurance company.

[0102] The countermeasure selection unit 304 outputs information on the countermeasure plan determined as described above (hereinafter also referred to as the determined countermeasure plan) to the effect calculation unit 306.

[0103] The effect calculation unit 306 calculates profit P (or net profit Q) based on information about the managed object and information about the determined countermeasure plan. Here, loss A is the amount of insurance payment set for the managed object if a disaster occurs without the determined countermeasure plan being implemented. Loss B is the amount of insurance payment set for the managed object if a disaster occurs with the determined countermeasure plan being implemented. In other words, the effect calculation unit 306 analyzes the effect of the determined countermeasure plan. The amount of insurance payment may be data stored in advance in the storage unit 312, or may be calculated based on risk information as shown in (2B). If the calculation result shows that profit P is equal to or greater than a predetermined amount, information about the determined countermeasure plan is output to the incentive design unit 308.

[0104] Based on the information on the determined countermeasure plan, the incentive design unit 308 sets an incentive to be paid to a person (an insurance policyholder, for example, the owner of the managed object) who evacuates the managed object when the evacuation is carried out. The incentive is expressed, for example, in the form of a reward. The incentive design unit 308 sets the incentive to be an amount less than the profit P or the net profit Q. The net profit Q is the amount obtained by subtracting the burden C, which is the cost incurred when the determined countermeasure plan is implemented, from the profit P. The incentive design unit 308 may also set the incentive to be a value greater than the burden C.

[0105] The incentive design unit 308 may also set the incentive based on at least one of the insurance contract information related to the management target, the probability of a disaster occurring, the scale of the disaster, the period subject to risk assessment of the disaster, the period required to complete the proposed countermeasures, the profit P, the net profit Q, and the burden C. The insurance contract information includes the conditions under which the insurance applies as well as the insurance payment amount per time unit (month, year, etc.). For example, the incentive design unit 308 may increase the incentive when at least one of the insurance payment amount per time unit, the probability of a disaster occurring, the scale of the disaster, the period required to complete the proposed countermeasures, the profit P, or the net profit Q increases. The incentive design unit 308 may also increase the incentive when at least one of the period subject to risk assessment or the burden C decreases.

[0106] The output unit 310 outputs information on the determined countermeasure plan and information on the derived incentive to the terminal of the owner of the managed object (or to the person himself / herself if the managed object is a person). The owner of the managed object, who is an insurance policyholder, is at risk of the managed object being damaged by a disaster, and can therefore also be considered a potential disaster victim. The owner refers to the notification from the output unit 310 and, based on the information on the determined countermeasure plan, takes action to evacuate the managed object from the disaster.

[0107] If multiple determined measures are determined, the output unit 310 may output the multiple determined measures to the terminal. At this time, the owner determines which determined measure to implement from the multiple determined measures output to the terminal. If multiple determined measures are implemented, the total amount of the incentives set for each determined measure will be paid to the owner.

[0108] Furthermore, when the acquisition unit 302 acquires information indicating that the determined proposed countermeasure has been implemented (hereinafter also referred to as execution confirmation information), the incentive design unit 308 sets the incentive set for the determined proposed countermeasure to a provisionally established state. Thereafter, when the acquisition unit 302 acquires information indicating that the execution of the determined proposed countermeasure has reduced damage to the managed object, or information indicating that the determined proposed countermeasure has been implemented when a disaster occurs (hereinafter also referred to as damage reduction information and execution completion information, respectively), the incentive design unit 308 sets the set incentive to an established state. Damage reduction information is, for example, information indicating that damage was zero. The fact that the incentive has become provisionally established or has become established is output from the output unit 310 to the owner's terminal. The incentive is paid by the insurance company to the policyholder.

[0109] The execution confirmation information, damage prevention information, or execution completion information may be acquired by the acquisition unit 302 as a result of monitoring by the insurance company, for example. Alternatively, the owner may take an image of the managed object and transmit the image to the insurance response system 300, so that the acquisition unit 302 may acquire this information.

[0110] FIG. 9 is a diagram showing the relationship between the parties in an insurance transaction. Insurance company H, which provides insurance, concludes an insurance contract with policyholder K and receives insurance premiums from policyholder K. When a disaster is predicted to occur, the insurance response system 300 outputs a determined countermeasure plan to policyholder K's terminal. Policyholder K then takes action to evacuate the managed objects accordingly. After that, policyholder K's terminal outputs execution confirmation information and the like to insurance response system 300 as described above. Insurance company H then pays an incentive to policyholder K.

[0111] At least one of the countermeasure selection unit 304, the effect calculation unit 306, and the incentive design unit 308 may execute the above-described processes using, for example, a trained model stored in the storage unit 312. The model is a model trained by a machine learning technique. For example, the model is trained by inputting training data including information acquired by the countermeasure selection unit 304 (i.e., risk information and countermeasure information) as sample information and information output by the countermeasure selection unit 304 (i.e., countermeasure proposals) as correct label information. After this training, the risk information and countermeasure information to be actually used are input to the model. The model outputs countermeasure proposals corresponding to the risk information and countermeasure information. The countermeasure selection unit 304 outputs the output calculation results to the effect calculation unit 306. The effect calculation unit 306 and the incentive design unit 308 may also execute the processes of each unit using trained models in a similar manner.

[0112] The trained model may have a configuration including, for example, a neural network. Furthermore, such a model may be generated using a deep learning technique and include layers such as a feature extraction layer and a fully connected layer.

[0113] However, each of the countermeasure selection unit 304, effect calculation unit 306, and incentive design unit 308 may execute the above processing by using an arbitrary algorithm or the like instead of a trained model.

[0114] [Flow description] 10 is a flowchart showing an example of a countermeasure decision process of the insurance response system 300. This flowchart explains the process of the insurance response system 300. Note that the details of each process are as described above, and therefore will not be explained as appropriate.

[0115] First, the acquisition unit 302 acquires disaster risk information and countermeasure information (step S52). The countermeasure selection unit 304 selects one or more countermeasure plans to be taken by the owner of the managed object based on the risk information and the countermeasure information (step S54). The effect calculation unit 306 analyzes the effect of the determined countermeasure plan based on the information on the managed object and the information on the determined countermeasure plan (step S56). The incentive design unit 308 sets an incentive to be paid to the policyholder when evacuation is performed based on the information on the determined countermeasure plan (step S58). The output unit 310 outputs the information on the determined countermeasure plan and the derived incentive information to the terminal (step S60).

[0116] [Effect description] As described above, the insurance response system 300 can notify the manager (or the insurance policyholder) to evacuate the insured managed objects when there is a high possibility of a disaster occurring in the near future. Therefore, the manager can avoid disaster by evacuating the managed objects.

[0117] The insurance response system 300 may also include an incentive design unit 308 that sets incentives for implementing countermeasures. This can increase the likelihood of evacuation by motivating people who evacuate the managed objects. Furthermore, insurance companies only need to pay incentives that are significantly lower than the insurance payouts as expenses in the event of a disaster. This can reduce the insurance company's expenses.

[0118] The incentive design unit 308 may set incentives based on at least one of the contract information of the insurance related to the management target, the probability of disaster occurrence, the scale of the disaster, the period for which the risk of the disaster is to be determined, the period for completing the countermeasure plan, etc. This enables the insurance response system 300 to set appropriate incentives according to the situation.

[0119] However, the incentive design unit 308 is not essential to the insurance response system 300. In this case, the output unit 310 outputs information about the determined countermeasure plan to the administrator's terminal. For example, if the administrator is a local government and the area under management is a specified region, the output unit 310 outputs information about the determined countermeasure plan to the local government's terminal. In response to the information, the local government implements countermeasure plans, such as issuing an alert to encourage evacuation, setting up evacuation shelters, and closing floodgates and roads. In this way, the insurance response system 300 can motivate the local government to implement countermeasure plans early, thereby reducing damage caused by disasters.

[0120] (3B) Fig. 11 is a block diagram showing an example of an insurance response system according to the present disclosure. Compared to Fig. 8, insurance response system 300 differs in that it includes a risk assessment unit 314, a target identification unit 316, and an effect assessment unit 318 instead of acquisition unit 302. Below, the insurance response system 300 will be described focusing on the differences from (3A), omitting explanations of elements and processes common to (3A) as appropriate.

[0121] The risk assessment unit 314 generates risk information for disasters related to the area where the management target is located. The risk information is displayed, for example, as a hazard map. The risk assessment unit 314 generates the risk information based on, for example, geographic information of the area, weather forecasts for the area for a predetermined period in the near future (for example, from a few seconds to one month), and / or past risk information. Details of this are as described in (2B).

[0122] The target identification unit 316 uses information on the list of policyholders stored in the memory unit 312 to identify policyholders who are located in areas determined to be at risk of disaster based on the risk information. For example, the target identification unit 316 identifies policyholders who are located in areas determined to have a disaster risk of a predetermined value or more based on the risk information. In detail, the target identification unit 316 compares the address or residence information on the list of policyholders with the areas determined to be at risk of disaster, and if the two match, identifies the matching policyholder. At that time, the target identification unit 316 also identifies the managed objects stored in the memory unit 312 in association with the policyholders. In this way, the target identification unit 316 identifies potential disaster victims.

[0123] After identifying the policyholder and the managed object, the target identification unit 316 calculates the expected loss that will occur to the managed object due to a disaster based on the risk information. For example, if the managed object is a house and the disaster is a typhoon, the target identification unit 316 estimates a higher expected loss as the typhoon becomes stronger. Then, by referring to the expected loss and the insurance contract information, the target identification unit 316 calculates the amount of insurance payment to be set for the managed object in the event of a disaster if no countermeasures are taken. This insurance payment amount is included in the risk information as loss A.

[0124] The effect evaluation unit 318 generates information on details of damage that would occur if each of a plurality of countermeasure plans were implemented, based on the countermeasure plans and the expected scale of the disaster. The effect evaluation unit 318 then generates countermeasure information that includes information on the countermeasure plans, the expected scale of the disaster, and details of damage that would occur if each countermeasure plan were implemented. The effect evaluation unit 318 also includes information on the cost and time required to complete each countermeasure plan in the countermeasure information.

[0125] As described in (3A), the effect calculation unit 306 uses the generated risk information and countermeasure information to calculate, for each countermeasure proposal, the amount of loss that is expected to be reduced by the countermeasure proposal indicated in the countermeasure information. As described above, the insurance response system 300 is capable of generating risk information and countermeasure information. However, at least one of the risk assessment unit 314, the target identification unit 316, and the effect assessment unit 318 may be provided in the insurance response system 300.

[0126] Furthermore, the output unit 310 can output information on the determined countermeasure plan and information on the derived incentive to the terminal of the policyholder identified by the target identification unit 316. This prevents information from being output to people other than the policyholder, thereby reducing unnecessary processing.

[0127] (3C) The risk information acquired by the acquisition unit 302 in (3A) or the risk information generated by the risk assessment unit 314 in (3B) may be updated as appropriate. Each unit of the insurance response system 300 can execute the above-mentioned processes using the updated risk information. As a result, the proposed measures determined by the measure selection unit 304 and the incentives set by the incentive design unit 308 may also be updated.

[0128] For example, the insurance response system 300 may further acquire disaster information for an area related to the location where the managed object is located. This disaster information is, for example, disaster information for an area adjacent to the location where the managed object is located or an area within a predetermined distance from the location where the managed object is located (hereinafter also referred to as nearby disaster information). The nearby disaster information includes information indicating the scale of a disaster that has occurred in a nearby area and details of the damage. The acquisition unit 302 in (3A) may acquire the nearby disaster information as risk information, or the risk assessment unit 314 in (3B) may generate risk information using the nearby disaster information. In this way, the risk information is updated according to the content of the nearby disaster information.

[0129] For example, if the administrator is a local government and the object of management is a predetermined area, the measure selection unit 304 updates the determined measure proposal based on the updated risk information. Examples of updates to the determined measure proposal executed by the measure selection unit 304 include at least one of changing the level of the warning that prompts evacuation behavior (for example, raising the level), changing the area that is the target of the warning that prompts evacuation behavior (for example, expanding the area), or changing the number of opened evacuation shelters (for example, increasing the number of opened shelters).

[0130] Furthermore, the incentive design unit 308 may change previously set incentives based on updates to the proposed decision measures. For example, the incentive design unit 308 may increase the set incentive from the previously set incentive after satisfying the condition that the incentive is less than the profit P or the net profit Q. This further motivates a person who evacuates the managed object to evacuate, thereby further increasing the likelihood of the person evacuating the managed object.

[0131] The output unit 310 outputs the information on the determined measure plan and the incentive information updated as described above to the terminal of the owner of the managed object (or to the person himself / herself if the managed object is a person).

[0132] As described above, the insurance response system 300 can notify the administrator to increase vigilance against disasters in accordance with nearby disaster information, thereby further enhancing the effect of suppressing damage from disasters.

[0133] The systems shown in the second and third embodiments may be configured as a single computer device, similar to the information processing system 100, or may be configured as a distributed system having a plurality of computer devices.

[0134] In the above-described embodiments, the present disclosure has been described as a hardware configuration, but the present disclosure is not limited to this. The present disclosure can also be realized by causing a processor in a computer to execute a computer program to perform the processing of the devices constituting the information processing system 100, the product creation system 200, or the insurance response system 300 described in the above-described embodiments.

[0135] 12 is a block diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of an information processing device (i.e., a computer) that executes the processing of the system or device described in each embodiment. Referring to FIG. 12, an information processing device 90 includes a signal processing circuit 91, a processor 92, and a memory 93.

[0136] The signal processing circuit 91 is a circuit for processing signals in accordance with the control of the processor 92. The signal processing circuit 91 may include a communication circuit for receiving signals from a transmitting device.

[0137] The processor 92 is connected to the memory 93, and performs the processing of the system described in the above embodiment by reading and executing a computer program from the memory 93. As an example of the processor 92, one of a CPU (Central Processing Unit), an MPU (Micro Processing Unit), an FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array), a DSP (Digital Signal Processor), and an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) may be used, or a plurality of these may be used in parallel.

[0138] The memory 93 is configured with a volatile memory, a nonvolatile memory, or a combination thereof. The memory 93 is not limited to one, and multiple memories may be provided. The volatile memory may be, for example, a RAM (Random Access Memory) such as a DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) or an SRAM (Static Random Access Memory). The nonvolatile memory may be, for example, a ROM (Read Only Memory) such as a PROM (Programmable Read Only Memory) or an EPROM (Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory), a flash memory, or an SSD (Solid State Drive).

[0139] The memory 93 is used to store one or more instructions. Here, the one or more instructions are stored as programs in the memory 93. The processor 92 can perform the processes described in the above embodiments by reading and executing these programs from the memory 93.

[0140] The memory 93 may include memory built into the processor 92 in addition to memory provided outside the processor 92. The memory 93 may also include storage located away from the processors constituting the processor 92. In this case, the processor 92 can access the memory 93 via an I / O (Input / Output) interface.

[0141] As described above, one or more processors included in each system or device in the above-described embodiments execute one or more programs including instructions for causing a computer to execute the algorithms described using the drawings. Execution of the programs enables the information processing described in each embodiment to be realized.

[0142] The program includes instructions or software code that, when loaded into a computer, causes the computer to perform one or more functions described in the embodiments. The program may be stored in a non-transitory computer-readable medium or a tangible storage medium. By way of example and not limitation, computer-readable media or tangible storage media include random-access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), flash memory, solid-state drive (SSD) or other memory technologies, compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), digital versatile disk (DVD), Blu-ray disc or other optical disk storage, magnetic cassette, magnetic tape, magnetic disk storage or other magnetic storage devices. The program may also be transmitted on a transitory computer-readable medium or communication medium. By way of example and not limitation, transitory computer-readable media or communication media include electrical, optical, acoustic, or other forms of propagated signals. The transitory computer-readable medium or communication medium may provide the program to the computer via a wired communication path, such as electrical wires and optical fibers, or via a wireless communication path.

[0143] A part or all of the above-described embodiments can be described as, but not limited to, the following supplementary notes. (Appendix 1) An acquisition means for acquiring disaster risk information related to a location where a management object managed by the manager exists; a selection means for selecting one or more countermeasures for suppressing damage caused by the disaster based on the risk information; a calculation means for calculating a profit to be generated by the manager when at least one of the one or more countermeasures is implemented; and an output means for outputting the one or more countermeasures and the profit. Information processing system. (Appendix 2) the calculation means calculates the profit of the manager based on the one or more countermeasures and the risk information; 10. The information processing system of claim 1. (Appendix 3) the calculation means calculates the profit of the manager using at least one of the period subject to the risk included in the risk information, the probability of the disaster occurring, or the period required to complete the one or more countermeasures; 10. The information processing system of claim 2. (Appendix 4) further comprising an incentive setting means for setting an incentive for implementing the one or more countermeasures based on information on the one or more countermeasures; An information processing system according to any one of appendices 1 to 3. (Appendix 5) the incentive setting means sets the incentive by further using at least one of contract information of the insurance related to the management target, the probability of occurrence of the disaster, the scale of the disaster, the period subject to risk assessment of the disaster, or the period required to complete the one or more countermeasures. 5. The information processing system of claim 4. (Appendix 6) The selection means selects the one or more countermeasures based on the interests of the administrator. An information processing system according to any one of appendices 1 to 5. (Appendix 7) Further comprising a generating means for generating a financial product based on the one or more countermeasures and the profits; 7. An information processing system according to any one of claims 1 to 6. (Appendix 8) Further, a beneficiary identification means is provided for identifying a beneficiary who will receive a benefit when the one or more countermeasures are implemented; the generating means generates a financial product based on the one or more countermeasures, the profit, and information on the beneficiary; 8. The information processing system of claim 7. (Appendix 9) the selection means selects the one or more countermeasure plans from a plurality of countermeasure plans based on a contract with the administrator; An information processing system according to any one of appendices 1 to 8. (Appendix 10) the calculation means calculates a cost to the manager that will be incurred when the one or more selected countermeasures are implemented; The output means further outputs a value obtained by adding the cost to the profit. An information processing system according to any one of appendices 1 to 9. (Appendix 11) The administrator is a local government, and the managed object is an area managed by the local government. An information processing system according to any one of appendices 1 to 10. (Appendix 12) the calculation means calculates a disadvantage to the manager that will occur if the one or more selected countermeasures are not implemented; The output means further outputs the disadvantage. 12. An information processing system according to any one of claims 1 to 11. (Appendix 13) A step in which an acquisition means acquires disaster risk information related to a location where a management object managed by the manager exists; a step in which a selection means selects one or more countermeasures for suppressing damage caused by the disaster based on the risk information; a step in which a calculation means calculates a profit of the manager that will be generated when at least one of the one or more countermeasures is implemented; an output means for outputting the one or more countermeasures and the benefit; A computer-implemented information processing method comprising: (Appendix 14) Computer, an acquisition means for acquiring disaster risk information related to the location where the management object under the management of the manager is located; a selection means for selecting one or more countermeasures for suppressing damage caused by the disaster based on the risk information; A calculation means for calculating the profit of the manager that will be generated when at least one of the one or more countermeasures is implemented; and an output means for outputting the one or more countermeasures and the profit; A program to function as a

[0144] Some or all of the elements (e.g., configurations and functions) described in Supplements 2 to 12 that are dependent on Supplement 1 may also be dependent on Supplement 13 and Supplement 14 in the same dependency relationship as Supplements 2 to 12. Some or all of the elements described in any Supplement may be applied to various hardware, software, recording means for recording software, systems, and methods.

[0145] Although the present disclosure has been described above with reference to the embodiments, the present disclosure is not limited to the above-described embodiments. Various modifications that can be understood by those skilled in the art can be made to the configuration and details of the present disclosure within the scope of the present disclosure. Furthermore, each embodiment can be combined with other embodiments as appropriate. [Explanation of symbols]

[0146] 100 Information Processing Systems 102 Acquisition Department 104 Selection Department 106 Calculation Department 108 Output section 200 Product Generation System 202 Acquisition unit 204 Effect calculation unit 206 Countermeasure selection unit 208 Beneficiary Identification Department 210 Product Design Department 212 Output Department 214 Memory section 216 Risk assessment section 218 Effect assessment section 300 Insurance Response System 302 Acquisition unit 304 Countermeasure selection unit 306 Effect calculation unit 308 Incentive Design Unit 310 Output Unit 312 Memory section 314 Risk assessment section 316 Target identification section 318 Effectiveness Evaluation Department

Claims

1. An acquisition means for acquiring disaster risk information related to a location where a management object managed by the manager exists; a selection means for selecting one or more countermeasures for suppressing damage caused by the disaster based on the risk information; a calculation means for calculating a profit to be generated by the manager when at least one of the one or more countermeasures is implemented; and an output means for outputting the one or more countermeasures and the profit. Information processing system.

2. the calculation means calculates the profit of the manager based on the one or more countermeasures and the risk information. The information processing system according to claim 1 .

3. the calculation means calculates the profit of the manager using at least one of the period subject to the risk included in the risk information, the probability of the disaster occurring, or the period required to complete the one or more countermeasures; The information processing system according to claim 2 .

4. further comprising an incentive setting means for setting an incentive for implementing the one or more countermeasure plans based on information on the one or more countermeasure plans; The information processing system according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

5. the incentive setting means sets the incentive by further using at least one of contract information of the insurance related to the management target, the probability of occurrence of the disaster, the scale of the disaster, the period subject to risk assessment of the disaster, or the period required to complete the one or more countermeasures. The information processing system according to claim 4 .

6. the selection means selects the one or more countermeasure plans based on the interests of the administrator; The information processing system according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

7. Further comprising a generating means for generating a financial product based on the one or more countermeasures and the profit. The information processing system according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

8. The system further comprises a beneficiary identification means for identifying a beneficiary who will receive a benefit when the one or more countermeasures are implemented, the generating means generates a financial product based on the one or more countermeasures, the profit, and information on the beneficiary; The information processing system according to claim 7 .

9. the selection means selects the one or more countermeasure plans from a plurality of countermeasure plans based on a contract with the administrator; The information processing system according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

10. the calculation means calculates a cost to the manager that will be incurred when the one or more selected countermeasures are implemented; The output means further outputs a value obtained by adding the cost to the profit. The information processing system according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

11. The administrator is a local government, and the managed object is an area managed by the local government. The information processing system according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

12. the calculation means calculates a disadvantage to the manager that will occur if the one or more selected countermeasures are not implemented; The output means further outputs the disadvantage. The information processing system according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

13. A step in which an acquisition means acquires disaster risk information related to a location where a management object managed by the manager exists; a step in which a selection means selects one or more countermeasures for suppressing damage caused by the disaster based on the risk information; a step in which a calculation means calculates a profit of the manager that will be generated when at least one of the one or more countermeasures is implemented; an output means for outputting the one or more countermeasures and the benefit; A computer-implemented information processing method comprising:

14. Computer, an acquisition means for acquiring disaster risk information related to the location where the management object under the management of the manager is located; a selection means for selecting one or more countermeasures for suppressing damage caused by the disaster based on the risk information; A calculation means for calculating a profit to be generated by the manager when at least one of the one or more countermeasures is implemented; and an output means for outputting the one or more countermeasures and the profit; A program to function as a

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