Update planning device, update planning method, and update planning program

Abstract

A plan creation unit (21) creates, for each combination of one of a plurality of upper limit ratios and one of a plurality of lower limit ratios, an update plan indicating a timing for updating each of a plurality of components constituting a facility. The plan creation unit (21) creates an update plan in which, for each of the plurality of components as a subject component, the timing for updating the subject component is set within a period between a use lower limit and a use upper limit, inclusive, the use upper limit being obtained by multiplying the life of the subject component by an upper limit ratio of a subject combination, the use lower limit being obtained by multiplying the life of the subject component by a lower limit ratio of the subject combination. A presentation unit (24) presents the created update plan for each combination.

Description

Renewal planning device, renewal planning method, and renewal planning program

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a technology for supporting the creation of a part replacement plan.

[0002] A maintenance plan is created that determines the timing of equipment maintenance, and the equipment is maintained according to the maintenance plan. The maintenance cost and risk of failure change depending on the timing of maintenance.

[0003] Patent Literature 1 describes a technology for formulating a maintenance plan that reduces both the overall cost and risk involved in maintenance. In Patent Literature 1, after formulating one maintenance plan that satisfies constraints, the maintenance plan is improved by crossover and mutation so as to satisfy the constraints, and multiple maintenance plans are created and presented to the user.

[0004] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2005-157793

[0005] Patent Literature 1 describes creating a maintenance plan for an entire facility to satisfy constraints. In Patent Literature 1, the constraints include a maintenance period. Therefore, the maintenance plan created in Patent Literature 1 is a plan to ensure that maintenance is performed within the period indicated by the constraints. When creating an update plan for each component constituting a facility, it is possible to create the update plan using the lifespan determined for each component. For example, various update plans are possible, such as an update plan that uses a component until its lifespan in exchange for accepting a failure risk, and an update plan that replaces a component earlier than its lifespan to reduce the failure risk. The type of update plan that is best depends on the user's preferences. The present disclosure aims to present multiple update plans for each component constituting a facility, which correspond to various user preferences.

[0006] The update planning device according to the present disclosure includes: a plan creation unit that creates an update plan indicating the update timing for each of a plurality of parts that constitute equipment for each combination of a plurality of upper limit percentages and a plurality of lower limit percentages, wherein the plan creation unit creates an update plan in which each of the plurality of parts is a target part and the update timing for the target part is set to a period that is equal to or less than an upper utilization limit obtained by multiplying the lifespan of the target part by the upper limit percentage for the target combination and is equal to or greater than a lower utilization limit obtained by multiplying the lifespan of the target part by the lower limit percentage for the target combination; and a presentation unit that presents the update plan created by the plan creation unit for each of the combinations.

[0007] In the present disclosure, each combination of a plurality of upper limit percentages and a plurality of lower limit percentages is set as a target combination. Then, for the target combination, an update plan is created to update the part during a period that is equal to or less than the upper usage limit obtained by multiplying the part's lifespan by the upper limit percentage and equal to or greater than the lower usage limit obtained by multiplying the part's lifespan by the lower limit percentage. In this way, multiple update plans that meet various user preferences are created and presented.

[0008] 1 is a configuration diagram of an update planning device 10 according to a first embodiment. 2 is a flowchart showing the processing flow of the update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment. 3 is an explanatory diagram of a plan creation process according to the first embodiment. 4 is an explanatory diagram of a plan creation process according to the first embodiment. 5 is an explanatory diagram of a presentation process according to the first embodiment. 6 is an explanatory diagram of a presentation process according to the first embodiment. 7 is a flowchart showing the flow of a plan creation process according to the first embodiment. 8 is an explanatory diagram of a plan search process according to the first embodiment. 9 is an explanatory diagram of a plan search process according to the first embodiment. 10 is a configuration diagram of an update planning device 10 according to a second embodiment. 11 is a flowchart showing the processing flow of the update planning device 10 according to the second embodiment. 12 is an explanatory diagram of a method of converting a downtime period into costs according to the second embodiment. 13 is an explanatory diagram of a naming process according to the second embodiment. 14 is a configuration diagram of an update planning device 10 according to a third embodiment. 15 is a flowchart showing the processing flow of the update planning device 10 according to the third embodiment. 16 is an explanatory diagram of the effect of the third embodiment. 17 is an explanatory diagram of a presentation process according to a fourth modification.

[0009] First Embodiment *** Description of Configuration *** The configuration of an update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 1. The update planning device 10 is a computer. The update planning device 10 includes hardware such as a processor 11, a memory 12, a storage 13, and a communication interface 14. The processor 11 is connected to other hardware via signal lines and controls this other hardware.

[0010] The processor 11 is an IC that performs processing. IC stands for Integrated Circuit. Specific examples of the processor 11 include a CPU, a DSP, and a GPU. CPU stands for Central Processing Unit. DSP stands for Digital Signal Processor. GPU stands for Graphics Processing Unit.

[0011] The memory 12 is a storage device that temporarily stores data. Specific examples of the memory 12 include SRAM and DRAM. SRAM stands for Static Random Access Memory. DRAM stands for Dynamic Random Access Memory.

[0012] The storage 13 is a storage device that stores data. A specific example of the storage 13 is an HDD. HDD is an abbreviation for Hard Disk Drive. The storage 13 may also be a portable recording medium such as an SD (registered trademark) memory card, CompactFlash (registered trademark), NAND flash, a flexible disk, an optical disk, a compact disk, a Blu-ray (registered trademark) disk, or a DVD. SD is an abbreviation for Secure Digital. DVD is an abbreviation for Digital Versatile Disk.

[0013] The communication interface 14 is an interface for communicating with external devices. Specific examples of the communication interface 14 include Ethernet (registered trademark), USB, and HDMI (registered trademark) ports. USB stands for Universal Serial Bus. HDMI stands for High-Definition Multimedia Interface.

[0014] The update planning device 10 includes, as functional components, a plan creation unit 21, a preventive calculation unit 22, a failure calculation unit 23, and a presentation unit 24. The functions of each functional component of the update planning device 10 are realized by software. The storage 13 stores programs that realize the functions of each functional component of the update planning device 10. These programs are read into the memory 12 by the processor 11 and executed by the processor 11. In this way, the functions of each functional component of the update planning device 10 are realized.

[0015] The storage 13 stores a part lifespan 31, part specifications 32, and a deterioration model 33. The part lifespan 31 indicates the lifespan of each part that constitutes the equipment. The part specifications 32 indicate specifications including the price, renewal labor costs, and time required for renewal for each part that constitutes the equipment. Here, at least some of the parts that constitute the equipment have an inclusion relationship in which a parent part contains another child part. The part specifications 32 also indicate this inclusion relationship. The deterioration model 33 is a model that indicates the probability of failure depending on the number of years that have passed since the equipment was installed.

[0016] 1 shows only one processor 11. However, there may be a plurality of processors 11, and the plurality of processors 11 may cooperate to execute programs that realize the respective functions.

[0017] ***Description of Operation*** The operation of the update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment will be described with reference to Figures 2 to 10. The operation procedure of the update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment corresponds to the update planning method according to the first embodiment. Furthermore, the program that realizes the operation of the update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment corresponds to the update planning program according to the first embodiment.

[0018] The processing flow of the update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 2 . (Step S11: Plan Creation Process) The plan creation unit 21 sets multiple upper limit percentages and multiple lower limit percentages. The plan creation unit 21 sets each combination of the multiple upper limit percentages and the multiple lower limit percentages as a target combination. Here, the plan creation unit 21 excludes combinations in which the lower limit percentage is higher than the upper limit percentage from the target combinations. The plan creation unit 21 sets each of the multiple components constituting the equipment as a target component. The plan creation unit 21 calculates a usage upper limit by multiplying the lifespan of the target component indicated by the component life 31 by the upper limit percentage in the target combination. The plan creation unit 21 calculates a usage lower limit by multiplying the lifespan of the target component indicated by the component life 31 by the lower limit percentage in the target combination. The plan creation unit 21 creates an update plan for updating the target component during a period that is equal to or less than the usage upper limit and equal to or greater than the usage lower limit. In other words, the usage upper limit is the maximum period during which the component can be used, and the usage lower limit is the minimum period during which the component can be used. At this time, if there is an inclusion relationship, the plan creation unit 21 creates an update plan assuming that when a parent part is updated, the child part is also updated. Here, the plan creation unit 21 creates an update plan for the period up to the expiration date of the equipment. For example, if the expiration date of the equipment is 25 years from installation, the plan creation unit 21 creates an update plan from the present time up to the 25th year after installation of the equipment. Note that updating a part specifically means replacing the part or performing maintenance.

[0019] A specific example will be described with reference to Figures 3 and 4. The components constituting the equipment include a unit, a substrate, and a plate. The unit has a lifespan of 10 years, the substrate has a lifespan of 8 years, and the plate has a lifespan of 6 years. The unit is the parent component of the substrate. Figure 3 shows a combination in which the upper limit ratio is 1.0 and the lower limit ratio is 1.0, a combination in which the upper limit ratio is 1.0 and the lower limit ratio is 0.5, and a combination in which the upper limit ratio is 0.5 and the lower limit ratio is 0.5. In the combination in which the upper limit ratio is 1.0 and the lower limit ratio is 1.0, the upper limit of utilization of the unit is 10 years and the lower limit of utilization is 10 years. The upper limit of utilization of the substrate is 8 years and the lower limit of utilization is 8 years. The upper limit of utilization of the plate is 6 years and the lower limit of utilization is 6 years. In the combination in which the upper limit ratio is 1.0 and the lower limit ratio is 0.5, the upper limit of utilization of the unit is 10 years and the lower limit of utilization is 5 years. The upper limit of utilization of the substrate is 8 years and the lower limit of utilization is 4 years. The upper limit of plate usage is 6 years and the lower limit is 3 years. In a combination where the upper limit ratio is 0.5 and the lower limit ratio is 0.5, the upper limit of unit usage is 5 years and the lower limit is 5 years. The upper limit of substrate usage is 4 years and the lower limit is 4 years. The upper limit of plate usage is 3 years and the lower limit is 3 years. The plan creation unit 21 creates an update plan for each of these combinations.

[0020] Suppose an update plan is created for a combination where the upper limit ratio is 1.0 and the lower limit ratio is 0.5. In this case, it is necessary to meet the conditions that the target part is updated during a period that is equal to or less than the upper limit of usage and equal to or greater than the lower limit of usage, and that when a parent part is updated, the child part is also updated. Then, as shown in FIG. 4, update plan A is created as an update plan that meets the conditions. On the other hand, update plan B and update plan C do not meet the conditions. Update plan B does not meet the conditions because the board, which is a child part, was not updated when the unit was updated. Update plan C does not meet the conditions because the unit's lower limit of usage is five years, but it is updated every four years.

[0021] The processes of steps S12 and S13 are executed for each update plan created in step S11.

[0022] (Step S12: Preventive calculation processing) The preventive calculation unit 22 calculates the cost of preventive maintenance and the downtime when multiple parts that make up the equipment are updated in the target update plan. Here, the preventive calculation unit 22 calculates the cost and downtime for the period until the equipment's expiration date. Specifically, the preventive calculation unit 22 references the part specifications 32 to obtain the price and update labor cost of each part, and the time required for the update. The preventive calculation unit 22 calculates the cost of preventive maintenance from the price and update labor cost of the parts, and calculates the downtime from the time required for the update. Existing technology may be used as a method for calculating the cost of preventive maintenance and the downtime.

[0023] (Step S13: Failure calculation process) The failure calculation unit 23 calculates the cost of responding to a failure and the downtime when multiple components constituting the equipment are updated in accordance with the target update plan. Here, the failure calculation unit 23 calculates the cost and downtime for the period until the equipment's expiration date. Specifically, the failure calculation unit 23 performs a failure simulation for each component constituting the equipment using a deterioration model 33 that indicates the probability of failure occurring according to the number of years that have passed. Existing technology may be used for the failure simulation. In this way, the cost of responding to a failure and the downtime are calculated.

[0024] (Step S14: Presentation Process) As shown in Fig. 5 , the presentation unit 24 presents each update plan created in step S11. At this time, the presentation unit 24 presents, for each update plan, the cost and downtime required for preventive maintenance calculated in step S12, and the cost and downtime required for failure response calculated in step S13. As shown in Fig. 6 , the presentation unit 24 may present each update plan by plotting it in a two-dimensional space having an axis representing the total cost of preventive maintenance and the cost of failure response, and an axis representing the total downtime required for preventive maintenance and the downtime required for failure response.

[0025] The user selects the update plan that best suits their needs from the multiple update plans presented.

[0026] The plan creation process (step S11 in FIG. 2) according to the first embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 7. Here, the upper limit rate is set in increments of value a, and the lower limit rate is set in increments of value b. However, the upper limit rate and the lower limit rate do not need to be set in increments of a fixed value.

[0027] (Step S21: Data Reading Process) The plan creating unit 21 reads the part life 31 and the part specifications 32.

[0028] (Step S22: Variable Setting Process) The plan creation unit 21 sets the lower limit value and upper limit value of the upper limit rate max_w as s and t, respectively. The plan creation unit 21 also sets the lower limit value and upper limit value of the lower limit rate min_w as u and v, respectively.

[0029] (Step S23: Upper Limit Initialization Process) The plan creating unit 21 sets the lower limit value s as the initial value of the upper limit rate max_w.

[0030] (Step S24: Upper Limit Determination Process) The plan creation unit 21 determines whether the upper limit percentage max_w is greater than the upper limit value t. If the upper limit percentage max_w is greater than the upper limit value t, the plan creation unit 21 proceeds to the process at step S30. On the other hand, if the upper limit percentage max_w is equal to or less than the upper limit value t, the plan creation unit 21 proceeds to the process at step S25.

[0031] (Step S25: Lower Limit Initialization Process) The plan creation unit 21 sets the lower limit value u as the initial value of the lower limit ratio min_w.

[0032] (Step S26: Lower Limit Determination Process) The plan creation unit 21 determines whether the lower limit percentage min_w is greater than the upper limit value v. If the lower limit percentage min_w is greater than the upper limit value v, the plan creation unit 21 proceeds to the process at step S29. On the other hand, if the lower limit percentage min_w is equal to or less than the upper limit value v, the plan creation unit 21 proceeds to the process at step S27.

[0033] (Step S27: Combination Setting Process) For each part, the plan creation unit 21 sets an upper limit for utilization of the part by multiplying the lifespan of the part by an upper limit rate max_w. For each part, the plan creation unit 21 sets a lower limit for utilization of the part by multiplying the lifespan of the part by a lower limit rate min_w. The plan creation unit 21 also identifies dependencies between parts. Then, the plan creation unit 21 sets the upper and lower limits for utilization of each part and the dependencies between parts together as one combination.

[0034] (Step S28: Lower Limit Update Process) The plan creation unit 21 increases the lower limit ratio min_w by the value b, and then returns the process to step S26.

[0035] (Step S29: Upper Limit Update Process) The plan creation unit 21 increases the upper limit rate max_w by the value a. Then, the plan creation unit 21 returns the process to step S24.

[0036] (Step S30: Plan Search Processing) The plan creation unit 21 sets each combination set in step S27 as a target combination. For the target combination, the plan creation unit 21 searches for an update plan that satisfies the condition that the target parts are updated during a period that is equal to or less than the upper usage limit and equal to or greater than the lower usage limit, and if there is an inclusion relationship, when a parent part is updated, the child part is also updated. Note that there are cases where multiple update plans are identified for one combination. In the first embodiment, the plan creation unit 21 identifies all update plans.

[0037] The plan search process (step S30 in FIG. 7) according to the first embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. 8 to 10. The plan creation unit 21 sets a constraint condition as follows: if a target part is updated during a period when the usage limit is equal to or less than the usage limit and equal to or greater than the usage limit, and if there is an inclusion relationship, when a parent part is updated, the child part is also updated. Here, an explanation is given on the assumption that an update plan indicating the year in which the update will be performed is created. The same processing can be performed even when an update plan indicating the month in which the update will be performed, rather than the year in which the update will be performed, is created. As a premise for setting the condition, the plan creation unit 21 sets 1 for each part in each year until the expiration date of the equipment if the part is to be updated, and 0 if the part is not to be updated.

[0038] A method for setting condition 1, that is, that the target part is updated in a period equal to or less than the usage upper limit, will be described with reference to FIG. 8 . The plan creation unit 21 sets condition 1 as the condition that the number of updates is one or more in all consecutive periods of the usage upper limit. In other words, condition 1 is the condition that the total value of all consecutive periods of the usage upper limit is one or more. For example, suppose the usage upper limit is eight years. Then, condition 1 would be the total value from the first year to the eighth year being one or more, the total value from the second year to the ninth year being one or more, and so on.

[0039] Referring to FIG. 9 , a method for setting condition 2, that is, that the target part is updated during a period equal to or greater than the lower limit of utilization, will be described. The plan creation unit 21 sets condition 2 as a condition that the number of updates is one or less during all consecutive periods of the lower limit of utilization. In other words, condition 2 is a condition that the total value during all consecutive periods of the lower limit of utilization is one or less. However, updates are not performed during the period before the first lower limit of utilization after the installation of the equipment. Therefore, the total value during the period before the first lower limit of utilization after the installation of the equipment is zero. For example, assume that the lower limit of utilization is four years. Then, condition 2 is such that the total value during the first through fourth years is one or less, the total value during the second through fourth years is one or less, and so on. Condition 2 also includes a condition that the total value during the first through third years is zero.

[0040] 10, a method for setting condition 3, which specifies that when an inclusion relationship exists, a child component is also updated when a parent component is updated, will be described. The plan creation unit 21 sets condition 3 as a condition that the value of the parent component is equal to or less than the value of the child component in each year. For example, assume that a circuit board is a child component of a unit. In this case, condition 3 specifies that the value of the unit is equal to or less than the value of the circuit board in every year. For example, if there is a year, such as the sixth year, in which the value of the unit is 1 and the value of the circuit board is 0, condition 3 is not satisfied.

[0041] ***Effects of First Embodiment*** As described above, the update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment sets each combination of a plurality of upper limit percentages and a plurality of lower limit percentages as a target combination. Then, for the target combination, the update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment creates an update plan for updating the part during a period that is equal to or less than the upper usage limit obtained by multiplying the part's lifespan by the upper limit percentage, and is equal to or greater than the lower usage limit obtained by multiplying the part's lifespan by the lower limit percentage. In this way, a plurality of update plans that correspond to various user preferences are created and presented.

[0042] When there is an inclusion relationship, the update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment creates an update plan assuming that when a parent part is updated, the child part is also updated. As a result, an appropriate update plan is created for multiple parts that make up the equipment.

[0043] The update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment automatically creates a plurality of update plans without human intervention, eliminating variations depending on the creator of the update plans.

[0044] ***Other Configurations*** <Variation 1> In the first embodiment, in step S30 of FIG. 7 , when multiple update plans are identified for one combination, the plan creation unit 21 identifies all of the update plans. However, the plan creation unit 21 may identify only some of the update plans. As a specific example, the plan creation unit 21 may identify only a reference number of update plans for which the value of the weighted sum of cost and downtime is small. The cost here refers to the sum of the cost of preventive maintenance and the cost of responding to failures. The downtime here refers to the sum of the downtime due to preventive maintenance and the downtime due to responding to failures. The reference number is a value of 1 or more. When the reference number is 1, only the best update plan is identified. By changing the weights for cost and downtime, it is possible to identify an update plan that prioritizes low cost, an update plan that prioritizes short downtime, an update plan that balances cost and downtime, and the like. The plan creation unit 21 may identify update plans for multiple weights.

[0045] <Modification 2> In the first embodiment, each functional component is realized by software. However, in a modification 2, each functional component may be realized by hardware. The differences between this modification 2 and the first embodiment will be described below.

[0046] When each functional component is realized by hardware, the update planning device 10 includes an electronic circuit instead of the processor 11, the memory 12, and the storage 13. The electronic circuit is a dedicated circuit that realizes the functions of each functional component, the memory 12, and the storage 13.

[0047] Possible electronic circuits include a single circuit, a composite circuit, a programmed processor, a parallel programmed processor, a logic IC, a GA, an ASIC, and an FPGA. GA stands for Gate Array. ASIC stands for Application Specific Integrated Circuit. FPGA stands for Field-Programmable Gate Array. Each functional component may be realized by a single electronic circuit, or each functional component may be distributed across multiple electronic circuits.

[0048] <Modification 3> As a modification 3, some of the functional components may be realized by hardware, and other functional components may be realized by software.

[0049] The processor 11, the memory 12, the storage 13, and the electronic circuitry are collectively referred to as a processing circuit. In other words, the functions of the respective functional components are realized by the processing circuit.

[0050] Furthermore, the term "unit" in the above description may be read as a "circuit," "step," "procedure," "process," or "processing circuit."

[0051] Embodiment 2. Embodiment 2 differs from embodiment 1 in that each shutdown period is converted into a cost and a name is assigned to the renewal plan. In embodiment 2, this difference will be explained, and explanation of the same points will be omitted.

[0052] ***Description of Configuration*** The configuration of the update planning device 10 according to the second embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 11. The update planning device 10 differs from the update planning device 10 shown in FIG. 1 in that it includes a name assignment unit 25 and a parameter change unit 26 as functional components. The functions of the name assignment unit 25 and the parameter change unit 26, like the other functional components, are realized by software or hardware. The update planning device 10 also differs from the update planning device 10 shown in FIG. 1 in that an economic loss parameter 34 is stored in the storage 13. The economic loss parameter 34 is a parameter for converting a downtime period into a cost.

[0053] ***Description of Operation*** The flow of processing by the update planning device 10 according to the second embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 12. The processing in step S31 is the same as the processing in step S11 in Fig. 2.

[0054] The processes of steps S32 and S33 are executed for each update plan created in step S31.

[0055] (Step S32: Preventive calculation processing) As in the first embodiment, the preventive calculation unit 22 calculates the cost and downtime required for preventive maintenance when multiple parts constituting the equipment are updated in the target update plan. The preventive calculation unit 22 converts the calculated downtime into a cost based on the economic loss parameter 34.

[0056] (Step S33: Failure calculation process) As in the first embodiment, the failure calculation unit 23 calculates the cost and downtime required to deal with a failure when multiple components constituting the equipment are updated in the target update plan. The failure calculation unit 23 converts the calculated downtime into a cost based on the economic loss parameter 34.

[0057] Referring to FIG. 13 , a specific example of the method for converting downtime into costs in steps S32 and S33 will be described. Here, the case where the prevention calculation unit 22 converts downtime into costs in step S32 will be described. However, the same applies when the failure calculation unit 23 converts downtime into costs in step S33. In FIG. 13 , the number of users, the value of user time, the increased travel time, and available time are stored as economic loss parameters 34. Here, opportunity loss (yen) = user time value (yen / person-minute) × increased travel time (minutes) × number of users (person / day) × downtime due to failure / 24 × 24 / available time. (1) The value per person due to the increased travel time (yen / person) is calculated by "user time value (yen / person-minute) × increased travel time (minutes)." (2) The value per user due to the increased travel time per day (yen / day) is calculated by "(1) × number of users." (3) The total value (yen) of users due to the increased travel time is calculated by "(2) x downtime due to breakdown / 24". (4) The value multiplied by the impact of available time is calculated by "(3) x 24 / available time". For example, if the downtime due to breakdown is 10 hours, the magnitude of the impact will differ depending on whether it is 10 hours out of 12 available hours or 10 hours out of 24 available hours. Therefore, the degree of impact is calculated by "24 / available time".

[0058] 13, by this calculation, the downtime due to preventive maintenance in each update plan is converted into costs and set as opportunity losses due to preventive maintenance. Similarly, the downtime due to failure response in each update plan is converted into costs and set as opportunity losses due to failure response.

[0059] (Step S34: Naming process) The name assigning unit 25 assigns names to a plurality of update plans according to a combination of the total amount of the cost of preventive maintenance and the amount obtained by converting the downtime period for the preventive maintenance, and the total amount of the cost of responding to a failure and the amount obtained by converting the downtime period for the preventive maintenance. Specifically, the name assigning unit 25 prepares a plurality of pairs of names and naming rules. The name assigning unit 25 identifies an update plan that matches each pair of naming rules from the plurality of update plans. Then, the name assigning unit 25 assigns a name of the same pair as the naming rule to the identified update plan. In this case, there is a possibility that names will be assigned to only some of the update plans, and no names will be assigned to the remaining update plans.

[0060] In FIG. 14 , three names, "minimum total," "solid maintenance," and "corrective maintenance-focused," are set. The name "minimum total" has a naming rule that the sum of costs and opportunity losses is minimum. The cost here refers to the sum of the costs for preventive maintenance and the costs for fault response. The opportunity losses here refers to the sum of the opportunity losses for preventive maintenance and the opportunity losses for fault response. The naming unit 25 identifies an update plan with the minimum total cost and opportunity losses from multiple update plans, and assigns the name "minimum total" to the identified update plan. The name "solid maintenance" has a naming rule that the minimum failure response costs are minimum. The failure response costs here refer to the sum of the costs due to fault response and the opportunity losses. The naming unit 25 identifies an update plan with the minimum total cost and opportunity losses from multiple update plans, and assigns the name "solid maintenance" to the identified update plan. The name "corrective maintenance-focused" has a naming rule that the minimum preventive maintenance costs are minimum. The preventive maintenance costs here refer to the sum of the costs due to preventive maintenance and the opportunity losses. The naming unit 25 identifies an update plan from a plurality of update plans that minimizes the total of preventive maintenance costs and opportunity losses, and names the identified update plan as "corrective maintenance-focused."

[0061] (Step S35: Presentation Processing) As shown in FIG. 14 , the presentation unit 24 presents each update plan created in step S31. At this time, the presentation unit 24 presents, for each update plan, the preventive maintenance costs calculated in step S32 and the opportunity loss obtained by converting the downtime into costs, and the failure response costs calculated in step S33 and the opportunity loss obtained by converting the downtime into costs. For named update plans, the presentation unit 24 also presents the assigned name. For each update plan, the presentation unit 24 presents the name, preventive maintenance costs, and failure response costs, and may also indicate a range of fluctuations in the failure response costs. The failure response costs are calculated using a deterioration model 33. The deterioration model 33 is a model that indicates the probability of failure occurrence. Therefore, when calculating the costs of responding to failures that may occur with a certain probability or higher, rather than the costs that occur with the highest probability, there is a certain range. Therefore, the presentation unit 24 may present a range of failure response costs. The presentation unit 24 may also present the maximum and minimum values ​​of the costs required for dealing with the failure and the portion with a higher probability than the standard.

[0062] (Step S36: Parameter Change Determination Process) The parameter change unit 26 determines whether or not it is necessary to change the economic loss parameter 34. Specifically, the parameter change unit 26 determines whether or not a user has instructed to change the economic loss parameter 34. If an instruction to change the economic loss parameter 34 has been received, the parameter change unit 26 proceeds to step S37. On the other hand, if an instruction to change the economic loss parameter 34 has not been received, the parameter change unit 26 ends the process.

[0063] (Step S38: Parameter Change Processing) The parameter change unit 26 changes the economic loss parameter 34 in accordance with the user's instructions. Then, the parameter change unit 26 returns the processing to step S32. Note that in steps S32 and S33, it is only necessary to perform the processing of converting the downtime period into costs.

[0064] ***Effects of Embodiment 2*** As described above, the update planning device 10 according to Embodiment 2 converts the downtime period for each update plan into a cost and presents the converted cost. This makes it possible to compare multiple update plans based on the cost alone, making the comparison easier. This makes it easier to select an update plan that suits your preferences from multiple update plans.

[0065] The update planning device 10 according to the second embodiment assigns a name to an update plan based on a naming rule. This allows the general characteristics of the update plan to be grasped from the name alone, making it easier to select a preferred update plan from among multiple update plans.

[0066] Embodiment 3. Embodiment 3 differs from Embodiments 1 and 2 in that a new update plan is presented when an unplanned part update is performed or when a planned part update is not performed. In Embodiment 3, this difference will be explained, and an explanation of the same points will be omitted. In Embodiment 3, a case where a function is added to Embodiment 1 will be explained. However, it is also possible to add a function to Embodiment 2.

[0067] ***Description of Configuration*** The configuration of the update planning device 10 according to the third embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 15. The update planning device 10 differs from the update planning device 10 shown in FIG. 1 in that it includes an unplanned detection unit 27 as a functional component. The function of the unplanned detection unit 27, like the other functional components, is realized by software or hardware. The update planning device 10 also differs from the update planning device 10 shown in FIG. 1 in that an update history 35 and an implementation plan 36 are stored in the storage 13. The update history 35 is historical information about updates of each component. The implementation plan 36 is the update plan that has been adopted.

[0068] ***Description of Operation*** The flow of processing by the update planning device 10 according to the third embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 16. (Step S41: Information Reading Process) The unplanned detection unit 27 reads the update history 35 and the implementation plan 36.

[0069] (Step S42: Unplanned Detection Processing) The unplanned detection unit 27 determines whether the part update history indicated by the update history 35 contains any point that is not in accordance with the plan indicated by the implementation plan 36. Specifically, the unplanned detection unit 27 determines whether an unplanned part update has been performed outside the plan indicated by the implementation plan 36, or whether an unplanned state has occurred in which a part update has not been performed according to the plan indicated by the implementation plan 36. An unplanned part update means that one of the multiple parts has been updated at a time that is not scheduled for update in the implementation plan 36. A part update that has not been performed according to plan means that one of the multiple parts has not been updated at a time that is scheduled for update in the update plan. If an unplanned state has occurred, the unplanned detection unit 27 proceeds to step S43, and causes the update plan to be recreated. On the other hand, if an unplanned state has not occurred, the unplanned detection unit 27 ends the processing.

[0070] (Step S43: Plan Creation Processing) The plan creation unit 21 creates multiple update plans, similar to step S11 in FIG. 2. However, the plan creation unit 21 creates multiple update plans taking into account the number of years that have passed since each part was updated. That is, in the first embodiment, multiple update plans were created under the assumption that all parts were new. However, in the third embodiment, each part may have been used for a certain period of time, and so multiple update plans are created taking this into account. Specifically, the plan creation unit 21 may determine the upper and lower usage limits for each part based on the time of the most recent update.

[0071] The processes in steps S44 and S45 are the same as those in steps S12 and S13 in FIG.

[0072] (Step S46: Presentation Processing) As in step S14 of Fig. 2, the presentation unit 24 presents each update plan created in step S41, and the cost and downtime of preventive maintenance and the cost and downtime of troubleshooting for each update plan. At this time, the presentation unit 24 may present the cost and downtime of preventive maintenance and the cost and downtime of troubleshooting in the case where the implementation plan 36 is implemented. Furthermore, the presentation unit 24 may present the cost and downtime of preventive maintenance and the cost and downtime of troubleshooting, and the difference between the cost and downtime of preventive maintenance and the cost and downtime of troubleshooting for each update plan created in step S41 and the case where the implementation plan 36 is implemented.

[0073] ***Effects of Embodiment 3*** As described above, the update planning device 10 according to Embodiment 3 presents a new update plan when an unplanned part update is implemented or when a planned part update is not implemented. This makes it possible to adopt an appropriate update plan that takes into account the occurrence of unplanned conditions. As a result, it becomes possible to reduce at least one of costs and downtime.

[0074] The effects of the third embodiment will be specifically described with reference to FIG. 17 . In FIG. 17 , similar to the example of FIG. 3 , the components constituting the equipment include a unit, a circuit board, and a plate. The unit has a lifespan of 10 years, the circuit board has a lifespan of 8 years, and the plate has a lifespan of 6 years. The unit is the parent component of the circuit board. Assume that a unit breaks down in the fourth year, resulting in an unplanned unit replacement. In this case, the implementation plan 36 schedules the unit replacement in the eighth year. However, since the unit was replaced in the fourth year, the unit replacement in the eighth year would be excessive. Therefore, the plan creation unit 21 creates a new replacement plan when the unit is replaced in the fourth year. For example, the plan creation unit 21 creates an replacement plan for the unit and the circuit board in the twelfth year, eight years after the unit replacement in the fourth year. This prevents excessive replacement and unnecessary preventive maintenance costs. Note that the new replacement plan also schedules the plate to be replaced in the sixth year, similar to the implementation plan 36. This is because the plate has already been replaced four years ago by the time the new replacement plan is created.

[0075] ***Other Configurations*** <Modification 4> As described in the second embodiment, the update planning device 10 includes the name assignment unit 25, and the name assignment unit 25 may assign a name to each newly created update plan. Then, the presentation unit 24 may present each named update plan together with the current plan. In this case, as shown in Fig. 18 , the presentation unit 24 may present, for each update plan, the cost of preventive maintenance and the cost of troubleshooting, and may also indicate a fluctuation range of the cost of troubleshooting.

[0076] <Variation 5> When the time for equipment renewal approaches, the plan creation unit 21 may create an renewal plan for continuing to use the equipment without renewal. As a result, the prevention calculation unit 22 and the failure calculation unit 23 calculate the costs and downtime for continuing to use the equipment without renewal. The presentation unit 24 then presents the calculated costs and downtime. At this time, the presentation unit 24 may also present the costs for renewing the equipment. This makes it possible to compare and consider the case where the equipment is renewed with the case where the equipment is not renewed. As described in the second embodiment, the prevention calculation unit 22 and the failure calculation unit 23 may convert the downtime into costs. This makes it possible to compare and consider the case where the equipment is renewed with the case where the equipment is not renewed from the perspective of costs.

[0077] The embodiments and modifications of the present disclosure have been described above. Some of these embodiments and modifications may be combined and implemented. Furthermore, one or more of them may be implemented partially. Note that the present disclosure is not limited to the above embodiments and modifications, and various modifications are possible as needed.

[0078] 10 Update planning device, 11 Processor, 12 Memory, 13 Storage, 14 Communication interface, 21 Plan creation unit, 22 Prevention calculation unit, 23 Failure calculation unit, 24 Presentation unit, 25 Naming unit, 26 Parameter change unit, 27 Unplanned detection unit, 31 Part life, 32 Part specifications, 33 Deterioration model, 34 Economic loss parameters, 35 Update history, 36 Implementation plan.

Claims

1. A renewal plan device comprising: a plan creation unit that creates a renewal plan indicating the renewal timing of each of a plurality of components constituting a facility for each combination of a plurality of upper limit ratios and a plurality of lower limit ratios, respectively, wherein each of the plurality of components is a target component, and the renewal timing of the target component is set in a period that is less than or equal to the upper limit of use obtained by multiplying the upper limit ratio in the target combination by the life of the target component and greater than or equal to the lower limit of use obtained by multiplying the lower limit ratio in the target combination by the life of the target component; and a presentation unit that presents the renewal plan created by the plan creation unit for each combination.

2. The renewal plan device according to claim 1, wherein among the plurality of components, at least some of the components have an inclusion relationship in which a parent component that is a certain component includes a child component that is another component, and when there is the inclusion relationship, the plan creation unit creates the renewal plan on the assumption that when the parent component is renewed, the child component is also renewed.

3. The renewal plan device according to claim 2, wherein the plan creation unit creates the renewal plan for the target combination by specifying a plan that satisfies the constraint conditions of: condition 1 that the number of renewals is 1 or more in all consecutive upper limit of use periods for each combination; condition 2 that the number of renewals is 1 or less in all consecutive lower limit of use periods; and condition 3 that when there is the inclusion relationship, when the parent component is renewed, the child component is also renewed.

4. The renewal plan device according to any one of claims 1 to 3, further comprising: a preventive calculation unit that calculates the cost and downtime related to preventive maintenance when the plurality of components are renewed according to the renewal plan for each renewal plan created by the plan creation unit; and a failure calculation unit that calculates the cost and downtime related to failure response when the plurality of components are renewed according to the renewal plan for each renewal plan, and the presentation unit presents, for each renewal plan, the cost and downtime due to preventive maintenance and the cost and downtime due to failure response.

5. The preventive calculation unit converts the stop period for the preventive maintenance into an amount for each of the update plans, the failure calculation unit converts the stop period for the failure response into an amount for each of the update plans, and the presentation unit presents, for each of the update plans, the amount obtained by converting the stop period for the preventive maintenance and the amount obtained by converting the stop period for the failure response. The update plan device according to claim 4.

6. The update plan device further includes a naming unit that assigns a name according to a combination of the total amount of the cost for the preventive maintenance and the amount obtained by converting the stop period and the total amount of the cost for the failure response and the amount obtained by converting the stop period for each of the update plans, and the presentation unit presents, for each of the update plans, the name assigned by the naming unit. The update plan device according to claim 5.

7. When any one of the plurality of components is updated at a timing not scheduled for update in the adopted update plan, and when any one of the plurality of components is not updated at a timing scheduled for update in the adopted update plan, the plan creation unit re-creates the update plan for each combination. The update plan device according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

8. A computer creates an update plan indicating the update timing of each of the plurality of components constituting the facility for each combination of a plurality of upper limits and a plurality of lower limits, and for each of the plurality of components as a target component, the computer creates an update plan in which the update timing of the target component is set during a period that is less than or equal to the upper limit of use obtained by multiplying the life of the target component by the upper limit ratio in the target combination and greater than or equal to the lower limit of use obtained by multiplying the life of the target component by the lower limit ratio in the target combination. A computer presents the update plan for each combination. An update plan method.

9. A planning program that causes a computer to function as an update planning device that performs a planning process for creating an update plan indicating the update timing of each of a plurality of components constituting a facility for each combination of a plurality of upper limit ratios and a plurality of lower limit ratios, wherein each of the plurality of components is a target component, and the update timing of the target component is set in a period that is less than or equal to the upper limit of utilization obtained by multiplying the life of the target component by the upper limit ratio in the target combination and greater than or equal to the lower limit of utilization obtained by multiplying the life of the target component by the lower limit ratio in the target combination; and a presenting process for presenting the update plan created by the planning process for each combination.

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