Power amount prediction device, power amount prediction method, program, and power amount prediction system

Abstract

This power amount prediction device comprises: a data acquisition unit that acquires train travel result data indicating the operation status of each train, substation operation result data indicating the operation status of each substation, and section definition data; a power amount data calculation unit that calculates power amount data including substation influence information, which is information that influences the operation status of the substations, on the basis of the train travel result data, the substation operation result data, and the section definition data; and a power amount prediction unit that calculates power amount prediction data including the prediction result of the future operation status of the substations on the basis of the power amount data.

Description

Electric energy prediction device, electric energy prediction method, program, and electric energy prediction system

[0001] The present disclosure relates to an electric energy prediction device, an electric energy prediction method, a program, and an electric energy prediction system.

[0002] In recent years, regenerative braking has been widely adopted in the railway industry to save energy. The regenerative power generated by regenerative braking is used to power other powered trains via the overhead contact lines. However, when there are no other powered trains nearby the train generating the regenerative power and the regenerative power cannot be fully used, the excess regenerative power is discarded as heat through an operation called regenerative throttling.

[0003] Therefore, efforts are being made to utilize substation facilities to make effective use of regenerative power that was previously discarded as surplus. For example, one method is to install a power storage device on the line, charge the regenerative power into this storage device, and use it when the train is powering or in an emergency. Another method is to install a power converter at a station, and use this power converter to convert the regenerative power generated on the line into electricity that can be used in the station building for lighting, air conditioning, etc.

[0004] As an example of a technology for effectively utilizing regenerative power using substation facilities, Patent Document 1 discloses a power supply system in which regenerative power generated within a railway line is charged into a power storage device, and this charged power is then used to charge electric vehicles at a charger located outside the line.

[0005] JP 2017-158356 A

[0006] To effectively utilize regenerative power using substation equipment, it is necessary to predict at least one of the amount of power the substation equipment will charge or regenerate and the amount of power it will discharge or supply, which indicates the future operating status of the substation equipment. The above-mentioned power supply system predicts the amount of power the substation equipment will charge in the future based on the amount of surplus regenerative power generated by trains traveling on the line that is not consumed by powered trains. Meanwhile, the control decision of the substation equipment to charge or regenerate, or discharge or power, is based on voltage. For example, when the substation equipment is a power storage device, the substation equipment performs charging control when the measured voltage is equal to or higher than the charging start voltage. As a result, the amount of surplus regenerative power and the amount of power the substation equipment will charge do not match, making it difficult to accurately predict the amount of power the substation equipment will charge.

[0007] The present disclosure has been made to solve the above-mentioned problems, and proposes an electric energy prediction device that predicts the future operating status of substation equipment with high accuracy.

[0008] The power energy prediction device according to the present disclosure includes a data acquisition unit that acquires train running performance data indicating the operating status of each train, substation equipment operation performance data indicating the operating status of each substation equipment, and section definition data, a power energy data calculation unit that calculates power energy data including substation equipment impact information, which is information that affects the operating status of the substation equipment, based on the train running performance data, the substation equipment operation performance data, and the section definition data, and a power energy prediction unit that calculates power energy prediction data including prediction results for the future operating status of the substation equipment, based on the power energy data.

[0009] The power amount prediction device according to the present disclosure has an effect of being able to predict the future operating status of substation equipment with high accuracy.

[0010] 1 is a diagram showing an example of a configuration of an electric energy prediction system according to a first embodiment. FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of train running record data according to the first embodiment. FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of substation equipment operation record data according to the first embodiment. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of a computer system according to the first embodiment. FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of a configuration of an electric energy prediction device according to the first embodiment. FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of an all-equipment common section definition included in the section definition data according to the first embodiment. FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of each equipment section definition included in the section definition data according to the first embodiment. FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of train electric energy data included in the electric energy data according to the first embodiment. FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of substation equipment electric energy data included in the electric energy data according to the first embodiment. FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of data obtained by dividing the train running record data based on the section definition data according to the first embodiment. FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of data obtained by dividing the substation equipment operation record data based on the section definition data according to the first embodiment. FIG. 12 is a diagram showing an example of electric energy prediction data according to the first embodiment. Fig. 10 is a diagram showing an example of interval definition creation data according to Embodiment 3. Fig. 11 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power amount prediction device according to Embodiment 3.

[0011] The following describes embodiments in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. Note that the embodiments described below are merely examples. The embodiments can be implemented in appropriate combination.

[0012] First Embodiment An energy prediction device 1 according to a first embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 1 to Fig. 11. Fig. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of an energy prediction system 100 according to the first embodiment. As shown in Fig. 1, the energy prediction system 100 includes an energy prediction device 1, a train 2, a substation facility 3, a data collection device 4, and external facilities 5. Details of the energy prediction device 1 will be described later with reference to Fig. 5.

[0013] The train 2 is composed of one or more vehicles. The number of trains 2 in the energy prediction system 100 may be one or more. The train 2 also includes a communication unit 21 that communicates with the communication unit 41 of the data collection device 4, and on-board equipment (not shown) that acquires the train running history data 13a. The communication unit 21 transmits the train running history data 13a acquired by the on-board equipment to the data collection device 4. Here, the train running history data 13a is data that indicates the status of the train 2.

[0014] The details of the train running performance data 13a will be described using FIG. 2 . FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of the train running performance data 13a. For example, as shown in FIG. 2 , the train running performance data 13a includes data related to the train set number, date, time, traveling direction, traveling position, outside temperature, wiper operation status, overhead line voltage, overhead line current, regenerative braking force command, and regenerative braking force performance. The train set number is an item for identifying the train 2. The traveling direction is an item for indicating whether the train 2 is traveling in the upbound or downbound direction. The wiper operation status is an item for identifying rainfall conditions, with "TRUE" indicating a state in which the wipers are operating and "FALSE" indicating a state in which the wipers are not operating. The overhead line current is a value of the overhead line current measured in the train 2. In FIG. 2 , a positive value is shown when the train 2 consumes power, and a negative value is shown when the train 2 generates regenerative power. The regenerative braking force command is a value of the braking force required to stop the train 2 using regenerative braking. The regenerative braking force record is a value of the braking force actually generated to stop the train 2 using regenerative braking. Note that the train running record data 13a shown in Fig. 2 is an example and is not limited to this. The train running record data 13a may include data on the occupancy rate of each train 2, for example.

[0015] One or more substations 3 are installed on the line, and each substation 3 charges or regenerates the regenerative power generated by each train 2 within the line, and discharges or supplies the power within or outside the line. Examples of substations 3 include, but are not limited to, a power converter, a power storage device, and a substation. Regarding the operation of the substation 3, for example, when the substation 3 is a power storage device, the substation 3 charges the regenerative power generated by each train 2 within the line and discharges the charged power within or outside the line. For example, when the substation 3 is a substation, the substation 3 regenerates the regenerative power generated by each train 2 within the line so as to return it to the grid, and supplies the power within or outside the line. In this way, the charging and discharging operations when the substation 3 is a power storage device correspond to the regenerative and supply operations when the substation 3 is a substation.

[0016] The substation equipment 3 includes a communication unit 31 that communicates with devices external to the substation equipment 3, and measuring equipment (not shown) that acquires substation equipment operation record data 13b. The communication unit 31 communicates with a communication unit 41 of the data collecting device 4 and with a communication unit 51 of the external equipment 5. The communication unit 31 transmits the substation equipment operation record data 13b acquired by the measuring equipment to the data collecting device 4. The communication unit 31 also receives control commands and the like from the communication unit 51 of the external equipment 5. If the external equipment 5 does not transmit control commands and the like to the substation equipment 3, the communication unit 31 does not need to communicate with the communication unit 51 of the external equipment 5. The substation equipment operation record data 13b is data that indicates the operating status of the substation equipment 3.

[0017] The details of the substation equipment operation record data 13b will be described using Figure 3. Figure 3 is a diagram showing an example of the substation equipment operation record data 13b. For example, as shown in Figure 3, the substation equipment operation record data 13b includes data related to a substation equipment code, date, time, voltage, current, and power. The substation equipment code is an item for identifying the substation equipment 3. The current and power are values ​​of current and power measured at the substation equipment 3, and in Figure 3, negative values ​​are shown when the substation equipment 3 charges or regenerates power, and positive values ​​are shown when the substation equipment 3 discharges or supplies power. Note that the substation equipment operation record data 13b shown in Figure 3 is an example and is not limited to this.

[0018] The data collection device 4 includes a communication unit 41 that communicates with devices external to the data collection device 4 and collects train running history data 13a and substation operation history data 13b. The communication unit 41 communicates with the communication unit 21 of each train 2, with the communication unit 31 of each substation 3, and with the communication unit 11 of the power energy prediction device 1 (described later). The communication unit 41 receives the train running history data 13a output from the communication unit 21 of each train 2 and outputs the train running history data 13a to the power energy prediction device 1 (described later). Similarly, the communication unit 41 receives the substation operation history data 13b output from the communication unit 31 of each substation 3 and outputs the substation operation history data 13b to the power energy prediction device 1 (described later). The communication unit 41 of the data collection device 4 and the communication unit 21 of the train 2 may be connected to each other via wireless communication so as to be able to communicate with each other. The communication unit 41 and the communication unit 31 may be connected to each other so as to be able to communicate with each other by wireless communication, or may be connected to each other so as to be able to communicate with each other via a network. The communication method of wireless communication and the network are not particularly limited.

[0019] The data collection device 4 acquires the train running history data 13a and the substation equipment operation history data 13b at an arbitrary acquisition period, thereby collecting the train running history data 13a and the substation equipment operation history data 13b. Here, the acquisition period can be set arbitrarily, for example, between several tens of milliseconds and one second. The data collection device 4 transmits the collected train running history data 13a and the substation equipment operation history data 13b to the power amount prediction device 1, which will be described later, at an arbitrary transmission period. Here, the transmission period can be set arbitrarily, for example, between several minutes and one hour.

[0020] The above-described methods for collecting the train running history data 13a and the substation equipment operation history data 13b are merely examples and are not intended to be limiting. For example, the train running history data 13a and the substation equipment operation history data 13b may be collected using a plurality of data collection devices 4. Specifically, a data collection device 4 for collecting the train running history data 13a and a data collection device 4 for collecting the substation equipment operation history data 13b may be provided separately.

[0021] The external facility 5 is a facility that uses the power amount prediction data 13e output from the power amount prediction device 1 described later. Examples of the external facility 5 include, but are not limited to, an EMS (Energy Management System) that manages the power of one or more station buildings, an EMS that targets multiple modes of transportation such as railroads and buses, a device that issues control commands to the substation 3, and a device that manages the operation of one or more trains 2. The external facility 5 may also transmit control commands and the like to the substation 3. The external facility 5 includes a communication unit 51 that communicates with devices outside the external facility 5. The communication unit 51 communicates with a communication unit 11 of the power amount prediction device 1 described later and with a communication unit 31 of the substation 3. The communication unit 51 receives the power amount prediction data 13e output from the communication unit 11 of the power amount prediction device 1 described later. The communication unit 51 outputs control commands and the like to the substation 3 based on the power amount prediction data 13e. In addition, when the external equipment 5 does not transmit a control command or the like to the substation equipment 3, the communication unit 51 does not need to communicate with the communication unit 31 of the substation equipment 3. The communication unit 51 and the communication unit 31 may be connected to each other so as to be able to communicate with each other via wireless communication, or may be connected to each other so as to be able to communicate with each other via a network. The communication method of wireless communication and the network are not particularly limited.

[0022] Each of the power amount prediction device 1, data collection device 4, and external equipment 5 shown in FIG. 1 may be realized as a function on the cloud, or may be a piece of hardware in the power amount prediction system.

[0023] Next, the power amount prediction device 1 will be described. The power amount prediction device 1 predicts the future operating status of each substation 3. Examples of data indicating the operating status of the substation 3 include a substation discharge supply power amount, which is the amount of power discharged or supplied by the substation 3, and a substation charge regeneration power amount, which is the amount of power charged or regenerated by the substation 3. The power amount prediction device 1 calculates power amount prediction data 13e as a prediction result of the future operating status of each substation 3.

[0024] Fig. 4 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of a computer system that realizes each of the power amount prediction devices 1 of this embodiment. In the power amount prediction device 1 of this embodiment, a computer program that describes the processing in each of the power amount prediction devices 1 is executed on the computer system, so that the computer system functions as the power amount prediction device 1. As shown in Fig. 4, this computer system includes a processor 101, a memory 102, a display 103, and an input interface (I / F) 104.

[0025] In FIG. 4 , the processor 101 is, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and executes a program describing the processing in the power amount prediction device 1. The memory 102 includes various storage media such as a RAM (Random Access Memory) and a ROM (Read Only Memory) and a storage device such as a hard disk, and stores the program to be executed by the processor 101, necessary data obtained during the processing, and the like. The memory 102 is also used as a temporary storage area for the program. The processor 101 and the memory 102 constitute, for example, a processing circuit. The processing circuit may be a single circuit or multiple circuits. The display 103 is, for example, an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) and displays various screens to a user of the computer system. The input interface 104 is, for example, composed of a keyboard, buttons, a mouse, and the like, and is used by a user of the computer system to input various information. The display 103 may be a touch panel integrated with the input interface 104. Fig. 4 is an example, and the configuration of the computer system that realizes each of the components of the power amount prediction device 1 is not limited to the example of Fig. 4.

[0026] Here, an example of the operation of the computer system until the program of this embodiment is ready to be executed will be described. In the computer system having the above configuration, for example, the program is installed into memory 102 from a CD-ROM or DVD-ROM inserted in a CD (Compact Disc)-ROM drive or DVD (Digital Versatile Disc)-ROM drive (not shown). Then, when the program is executed, the program read from memory 102 is stored in the main storage area of ​​memory 102. In this state, processor 101 executes the processes of each of the power amount prediction devices 1 of this embodiment in accordance with the program stored in memory 102.

[0027] In the above description, a program describing the processing in each of the power amount prediction devices 1 is provided using a CD-ROM or DVD-ROM as a recording medium, but this is not limiting. Depending on the configuration of the computer system, the capacity of the program to be provided, etc., it is also possible to use a program provided via a transmission medium such as the Internet via the communication unit 11.

[0028] 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of the power amount prediction device 1 according to embodiment 1. The power amount prediction device 1 includes a communication unit 11 that communicates with devices external to the power amount prediction device 1, a processing unit 12, and a storage unit 13.

[0029] The communication unit 11 communicates with the communication unit 41 of the data collection device 4 and with the communication unit 51 of the external facility 5. The communication unit 11 receives train running history data 13a and substation equipment operation history data 13b output from the communication unit 41 of the data collection device 4, and outputs the train running history data 13a and the substation equipment operation history data 13b to the processing unit 12. The communication unit 11 also outputs power amount prediction data 13e calculated by the processing unit 12 to the external facility 5. The communication unit 11 and the communication unit 41 may be connected to each other so as to be able to communicate with each other via wireless communication, or may be connected to each other so as to be able to communicate with each other via a network. The communication unit 11 and the communication unit 51 may be connected to each other so as to be able to communicate with each other via wireless communication, or may be connected to each other so as to be able to communicate with each other via a network. The communication method and network for wireless communication are not particularly limited. The processing unit 12 and the storage unit 13 will be described later.

[0030] The processing unit 12 includes a data acquisition unit 120 , a power amount data calculation unit 121 , and a power amount prediction unit 122 .

[0031] The data acquisition unit 120 includes a train running record data acquisition unit 12a, a substation equipment operation record data acquisition unit 12b, a section definition data acquisition unit 12c, and an energy prediction data acquisition unit 12e. The train running record data acquisition unit 12a outputs train running record data 13a acquired by the communication unit 11 from the data collection device 4 to the energy data calculation unit 121. The train running record data acquisition unit 12a may store the acquired train running record data 13a in the storage unit 13. The substation equipment operation record data acquisition unit 12b outputs substation equipment operation record data 13b acquired by the communication unit 11 from the data collection device 4 to the energy data calculation unit 121. The substation equipment operation record data acquisition unit 12b may store the acquired substation equipment operation record data 13b in the storage unit 13. The section definition data acquisition unit 12c acquires section definition data 13c from the storage unit 13 and outputs it to the energy data calculation unit 121. In addition, the train running history data acquisition unit 12a, the substation equipment operation history data acquisition unit 12b, and the section definition data acquisition unit 12c may be a communication device, an interface for a communication device, or the power amount prediction device 1 itself.

[0032] The section definition data 13c is data used by the electric energy data calculation unit 121, which will be described later, when calculating the electric energy data 13d. The section definition data 13c includes section definitions related to items included in at least one of the train running history data 13a and the substation equipment operation history data 13b that affect the operation status of the substation equipment 3. Examples of section definitions related to items included in at least one of the train running history data 13a and the substation equipment operation history data 13b that affect the operation status of the substation equipment 3 include the section definition related to the outside temperature included in the train running history data 13a shown in Fig. 2, the section definition related to the wiper operation state included in the train running history data 13a shown in Fig. 2, the section definition related to the traveling direction and running position included in the train running history data 13a shown in Fig. 2, the section definition related to the time included in the train running history data 13a shown in Fig. 2 and the substation equipment operation history data 13b shown in Fig. 3, the section definition related to the overhead line voltage included in the train running history data 13a shown in Fig. 2, and the section definition related to the voltage included in the substation equipment operation history data 13b shown in Fig. 3. The method of using the intervals determined by the interval definitions for each item included in the interval definition data 13c will be described later in connection with the power amount data calculation unit 121.

[0033] The section definition data 13c will be described in detail using Figures 6a and 6b. Figures 6a and 6b are diagrams showing an example of the section definition data 13c. For example, as shown in Figures 6a and 6b, the section definition data 13c is composed of an all-equipment common section definition and individual equipment section definitions. Here, the all-equipment common section definition is a section definition common to one or more substation equipment 3. Furthermore, each equipment section definition is a section definition for each substation equipment 3.

[0034] Using Figure 6a, we will explain the details of the all-equipment common section definition included in the section definition data 13c and the method for determining sections based on the section definition included in the all-equipment common section definition. Figure 6a is a diagram showing an example of the all-equipment common section definition. For example, as shown in Figure 6a, the all-equipment common section definition includes a section name, a reference value, a section width, and an individual value. A section is determined for the section name based on the values ​​of the reference value, the section width, and the individual value.

[0035] The section name shown in the first line of the section definition common to all equipment in Figure 6a is "Temperature", which indicates the temperature section definition. The temperature section is determined based on the temperature section definition. The temperature section is a section related to temperature, for example, a section for the outside air temperature included in the train running performance data 13a shown in Figure 2. Regarding the method of determining the temperature section based on the temperature section definition, for example, if the reference value included in the temperature section definition is T0 and the section width is Ts, then for the temperature T(t) at time t, the temperature section is expressed by the following equation (1).

[0036] (Equation 1) Formula (1)

[0037] Specifically, as shown in the first line of the definition of the common section for all equipment in Figure 6a, when the reference value is "0 (°C)" and the section width is "1 (°C)", the temperature section is expressed by the following equation (2) for the temperature T(t).

[0038] (Equation 2) Formula (2)

[0039] The section name shown in the second line of the all-equipment common section definition in Figure 6a is "Weather (Rain)", which indicates the weather (rain) section definition. Weather (rain) sections are determined based on the weather (rain) section definition. Weather (rain) sections are sections related to rainfall conditions, for example, sections related to the wiper operation status included in the train running performance data 13a shown in Figure 2. Here, the rainfall conditions indicate the proportion of time during which it rained out of the total train running time, expressed as a percentage. A method for calculating rainfall conditions will be described later. Regarding the method for determining weather (rain) sections based on the weather (rain) section definition, for example, if the reference value included in the weather (rain) section definition is W0, the section width is Ws, and the individual value is W1, and W1 = W0, then the weather (rain) section for the rainfall conditions W(t) at time t is expressed by the following equation (3):

[0040] (Equation 3) Formula (3)

[0041] Specifically, as shown in the second line of the definition of the common section for all equipment in Figure 6a, when the reference value is "0 (%)", the section width is "10 (%)", and the individual value is "0 (%)", the weather (rain) section is expressed by the following equation (4) for the rainfall situation W(t).

[0042] (Equation 4) Formula (4)

[0043] Note that the methods for determining the temperature intervals and weather (rain) intervals are not limited to these. For example, the type and position of the inequality signs do not have to be the same as those in equations (1) to (4). The temperature interval definition and weather (rain) interval definition may be included in each equipment interval definition, rather than in the interval definition common to all equipment.

[0044] 6b, details of each facility section definition included in the section definition data 13c and a method for determining a section based on the section definition included in each facility section definition will be described. Fig. 6b is a diagram showing an example of each facility section definition. For example, as shown in Fig. 6b, each facility section definition includes a substation equipment code, a location section definition including a direction, a location section reference value A, and a location section reference value B, a time section definition including a time width, a train voltage section definition including a train voltage section reference value A, a train voltage section reference value B, and a train voltage section width, and a substation equipment voltage section definition including a substation equipment voltage section reference value A, a substation equipment voltage section reference value B, and a substation equipment voltage section width.

[0045] The position section is determined based on the position section definition included in each facility section definition in Figure 6b. The position section is a section related to the traveling direction and position of the train 2, and is, for example, a section related to the traveling direction and running position included in the train running history data 13a shown in Figure 2. The direction included in the position section definition is expressed as either "upward," "downward," or "upward and downward." Regarding the method of determining the position section based on the position section definition, for example, if the direction included in the position section definition is L0, the position section reference value A is L1, and the position section reference value B is L2, then the position section is expressed by the following equation (5) for the train running position L(t) at time t.

[0046] (Equation 5) Formula (5)

[0047] Specifically, as shown in the row for the substation equipment code "S001" in each equipment section definition in Figure 6b, when the direction is "up / down", the location section reference value A is "2.0 (km)", and the location section reference value B is "4.0 (km)", the location section is expressed by the following equation (6) relative to the train running position L(t).

[0048] (Equation 6) Formula (6)

[0049] The direction, the location section reference value A, and the location section reference value B included in the location section definition may be set based on the installation location, performance, and control characteristics of the substation equipment 3, respectively.

[0050] The time intervals are determined based on the time interval definitions included in each facility section definition in Fig. 6b. The time intervals are intervals related to time, and are intervals corresponding to the times included in the train running history data 13a shown in Fig. 2 and the times included in the substation facility operation history data 13b shown in Fig. 3, for example. Regarding the method of determining the time intervals based on the time interval definitions, for example, if the time width included in the time interval definition is ts and "0:00:00" is t0 as the reference time, the time interval is expressed with respect to time t by the following equation (7):

[0051] (Equation 7) Formula (7)

[0052] Specifically, as shown in the row for the substation equipment code "S001" in each equipment section definition in Figure 6b, when the time width is "1:00:00", the time section is expressed by the following equation (8) for time t.

[0053] (Equation 8) Formula (8)

[0054] The time span may be set, for example, according to the granularity of the data of the operating status of the substation equipment 3 to be predicted. Note that the above-described method of determining the time span is an example and is not limited to this. Furthermore, when the time intervals set for each substation equipment 3 are all the same, the time interval definition may be included in the all-equipment common interval definition rather than in the individual equipment interval definition.

[0055] The train voltage section is determined based on the train voltage section definition included in each facility section definition in Figure 6b. The train voltage section is a section related to the overhead line voltage measured by train 2, for example, a section related to the overhead line voltage included in the train running history data 13a shown in Figure 2. Regarding the method of determining the train voltage section based on the train voltage section definition, for example, if the train voltage section reference value A included in the train voltage section definition is Vt1, the train voltage section reference value B is Vt2, the train voltage section width is Vts, and Vt2 > Vt1, and the train voltage section Vts is a value that can divide Vt2 - Vt1, the train voltage section is expressed by the following equation (9) for the overhead line voltage Vt(t):

[0056] (Equation 9) Formula (9)

[0057] Specifically, as shown in the row for the substation equipment code "S001" in each equipment section definition in Figure 6b, when the train voltage section reference value A is "1200 (V)", the train voltage section reference value B is "1600 (V)", and the train voltage section width is "50 (V)", the train voltage section is expressed by the following equation (10) for the overhead line voltage Vt(t).

[0058] (Number 10) Formula (10)

[0059] It is sufficient to define at least one of the train voltage section reference value A and the train voltage section reference value B. Specifically, as shown in the row for the substation equipment code "S005" in each equipment section definition in Fig. 6b, when the value of the train voltage section reference value A is not defined, the train voltage section reference value B is "1550 (V)", and the train voltage section width is "100 (V)", the train voltage section is expressed by the following equation (11) with respect to the overhead line voltage Vt(t).

[0060] (Equation 11) Formula (11)

[0061] The substation voltage section is determined based on the substation voltage section definition included in each facility section definition in Figure 6b. The substation voltage section is a section related to the voltage measured at the substation 3, for example, a section related to the voltage included in the substation operation performance data 13b shown in Figure 3. Regarding the method for determining the substation voltage section based on the substation voltage section definition, for example, the substation voltage section is determined in the same manner as the method for determining the train voltage section based on the train voltage section definition, based on the substation voltage section reference value A, the substation voltage section reference value B, and the substation voltage section width included in the substation voltage section definition. The train voltage section and the substation voltage section for the same substation code may be defined as the same section or may be different sections. When no substation voltage section is provided, it is sufficient to set a section wide enough to include all voltages that can be measured at the substation 3. For example, as shown in the row for the substation equipment code "S005" in each equipment section definition in Figure 6b, when the substation equipment voltage section reference value B is "0 (V)" and the substation equipment voltage section width is "2000 (V)", the substation equipment voltage section is expressed by the following equation (12) for the voltage Ve(t) measured at the substation equipment 3.

[0062] (Equation 12) Formula (12)

[0063] If the voltage measured at substation 3 is less than 2000 V, all data falls within the substation voltage range "0≦Ve(t)<2000", which has the same meaning as not setting a substation voltage range.

[0064] The train voltage section reference value A, the train voltage section reference value B, the substation voltage section reference value A, and the substation voltage section reference value B may be set based on the control characteristics of the substation 3. The train voltage section reference value A and the substation voltage section reference value A may be set, for example, based on the value of the discharge supply start voltage, which is the reference for the substation 3 to discharge or supply power. The train voltage section reference value B and the substation voltage section reference value B may be set, for example, based on the value of the charge / regeneration start voltage, which is the reference for the substation 3 to charge or regenerate power. Note that it is sufficient to set at least one of the train voltage section reference value A and the train voltage section reference value B for each substation 3, and it is sufficient to set at least one of the substation voltage section reference value A and the substation voltage section reference value B.

[0065] The method of determining the position interval, time interval, train voltage interval, and substation voltage interval is not limited to these. For example, the type and position of the inequality sign do not have to be the same as those in equations (5) to (12).

[0066] The section definition data 13c is not limited to these. For example, the section definition data 13c may include a section definition relating to the occupancy rate of each train 2.

[0067] The power amount data calculation unit 121 calculates power amount data 13d including substation equipment influence information, which is information that affects the operation status of the substation equipment 3, based on the train running history data 13a, the substation equipment operation history data 13b, and the section definition data 13c. Here, the substation equipment influence information includes, for example, time-related information including the date and time, location-related information including the running position of the train 2, the traveling direction of the train 2, and the installation location of the substation equipment 3, information about the surrounding environment including the temperature and weather, information about voltages measured at the train 2 and the substation equipment 3, and information about power including the power and power amount measured at the train 2 and the substation equipment 3. The power amount data 13d is data that is used by the power amount prediction unit 122, which will be described later, when calculating the power amount prediction data 13e.

[0068] The details of the power amount data 13d will be described using Figures 7a and 7b. Figures 7a and 7b are diagrams showing examples of the power amount data 13d. Specifically, Figure 7a is a diagram showing an example of train power amount data, and Figure 7b is a diagram showing an example of substation equipment power amount data. For example, as shown in Figures 7a and 7b, the power amount data 13d includes train power amount data and substation equipment power amount data. The power amount data calculation unit 121 calculates the train power amount data by dividing the train running history data 13a using sections for one or more items included in the train running history data 13a defined by the section definition data 13c, and calculating statistics such as integrated values ​​or average values ​​for each item from the divided train running history data 13a. As shown in Figure 7a, the train power amount data includes data related to a substation equipment code, direction, date, time section, temperature section, weather (rain) section, train voltage section, powering power amount, regenerative power amount, minimum regenerative power value, maximum regenerative power value, and regenerative power limiting amount. 7B, the power amount data includes data on the power substation code, the date, the time interval, the power substation voltage interval, the amount of power discharged from the power substation, and the amount of power regenerated from the power substation.

[0069] The power amount data calculation unit 121 divides the train running history data 13a and the substation equipment operation history data 13b based on the position section, time section, train voltage section, and substation equipment voltage section defined by the section definition data 13c, and calculates the power amount data 13d by linking data among the divided data that has matching information on date, position, time, and voltage to the temperature section and weather (rain) section defined by the section definition data 13c. Examples of the power amount data include the amount of power running energy, the amount of regenerative energy, the minimum value of regenerative energy, the maximum value of regenerative energy, and the amount of regenerative energy narrowed down, as shown in Figure 7a. The electric energy data calculation unit 121 divides the train running history data 13a and the substation equipment operation history data 13b using sections defined by the section definition data 13c, thereby extracting data that affect the operation status of the substation equipment 3 from the train running history data 13a and the substation equipment operation history data 13b, and can calculate electric energy data 13d in which the data that affect the operation status of the substation equipment 3 is organized by section and linked as substation equipment impact information. When the electric energy prediction unit 122, which will be described later, predicts the operation status of the substation equipment 3, the electric energy data 13d including the substation equipment impact information can be used to take the substation equipment impact information into consideration, which is expected to improve the prediction accuracy of the operation status of the substation equipment 3.

[0070] The position section defined by the section definition data 13c is a section related to the traveling direction and position of the train 2, and is used to calculate the train power energy data in the power energy data calculation unit 121. The train running history data 13a is data for the entire running section of the train 2, and therefore includes data on the train 2 running in the up direction, data on the train 2 running in the down direction, and data on the train 2 running outside the vicinity of the substation 3. Meanwhile, a situation in which the substation 3 is connected to only one of the up line or the down line, and a situation in which the substation 3 is connected to both the up line and the down line are assumed. Therefore, the influence of the train 2 on the operating status of the substation 3 may differ depending on whether the train 2 is running in the up line or the down line. Furthermore, when the substation 3 charges or regenerates, or discharges or supplies power, the range in which the substation 3 and the train 2 influence each other is limited. Therefore, by dividing the train running history data 13a based on the position sections included in the section definition data 13c, data on the running of the train 2 within a range where the substation 3 and the train 2 affect each other can be extracted from the train running history data 13a, and the power energy data 13d linked to the positional sections can be calculated. When predicting the future operating status of the substation 3, using the power energy data 13d linked to the positional sections enables predictions that take into account the running position of the train 2, the traveling direction of the train 2, and the installation position of the substation 3, and is expected to achieve more accurate predictions.

[0071] As a method of dividing the train running history data 13a based on the location section, for example, the train running history data 13a is divided based on the traveling direction and running position of the train running history data 13a in accordance with the location section "2.0≦L(t)≦4.0 (upbound / downbound)" determined by the location section definition shown in the row of the substation equipment code "S001" among the facility section definitions of the section definition data 13c in FIG. 6b, and the train running history data 13a is linked to the substation equipment code "S001" and the direction "upbound" or "downbound." Here, since the direction in the location section definition is "upbound / downbound," the train power energy data is divided into data for the "downbound" direction as shown in lines 1 to 4 of the train power energy data in FIG. 7a and data for the "upbound" direction as shown in lines 5 and 6 of the train power energy data in FIG. 7a. Note that the above-described method of dividing the train running history data 13a based on the location section is merely an example and is not limited to this.

[0072] The time intervals defined by the interval definition data 13c are intervals related to time, and are used to calculate the train power energy data and the substation power energy data in the power energy data calculation unit 121. Because the train 2 operates based on a predetermined timetable, the operation status of the train 2 is related to time. Because the operation status of the train 2 affects the operation status of the substation 3, it can be said that the operation status of the substation 3 is related to time. By dividing the train running history data 13a and the substation operation history data 13b based on the time intervals included in the interval definition data 13c, it is possible to calculate power energy data 13d linked to time-related intervals. When predicting the future operation status of the substation 3, using the power energy data 13d linked to time-related intervals makes it possible to make predictions that take time into consideration, and it is expected that more accurate predictions will be realized.

[0073] As a method of dividing the train running history data 13a and the substation equipment operation history data 13b based on the time interval, for example, the train running history data 13a and the substation equipment operation history data 13b corresponding to the substation equipment code "S001" are divided based on the time interval "0:00:00≦t<1:00:00, 1:00:00≦t<2:00:00, ..., 23:00:00≦t<24:00:00" determined by the time interval definition shown in the row of the substation equipment code "S001" among the respective equipment section definitions in the section definition data 13c of Figure 6b. 6b, the train running record data 13a and the substation equipment operation record data 13b corresponding to the substation equipment code "S005" are divided based on the time interval "0:00:00≦t<0:30:00, 0:30:00≦t<1:00:00, ..., 23:30:00≦t<24:00:00" determined by the time interval definition shown in the row of the substation equipment code "S005". Note that the above-mentioned method of dividing the train running record data 13a and the substation equipment operation record data 13b based on the time intervals is an example, and is not limited to this.

[0074] The train voltage section determined by the section definition data 13c is a section related to the overhead line voltage measured by the train 2, and is used to calculate the train energy data in the energy data calculation unit 121. Furthermore, the substation voltage section determined by the section definition data 13c is a section related to the voltage measured by the substation 3, and is used to calculate the substation energy data in the energy data calculation unit 121. The substation 3 is controlled based on voltage. For example, when the substation 3 is a power storage device, a discharge start voltage and a charge start voltage are set, and the power storage device discharges when the voltage is equal to or lower than the discharge start voltage, and charges when the voltage is equal to or higher than the charge start voltage. Therefore, it can be said that the overhead line voltage measured by the train 2 and the voltage measured by the substation 3 affect the operating status of the substation 3. By dividing the train running history data 13a and the substation operation history data 13b based on the train voltage section and the substation voltage section determined by the section definition data 13c, it is possible to calculate the energy data 13d associated with the voltage-related section. When predicting the future operating status of the substation equipment 3, by using the power consumption data 13d linked to the voltage section, it becomes possible to make predictions that take into account the control characteristics related to voltage, and it is expected that more accurate predictions will be achieved.

[0075] As a method of dividing the train running history data 13a based on the train voltage section, for example, if the train running history data 13a is divided based on the train voltage sections "..., 1150≦Vt(t)<1200, 1200≦Vt(t)<1250, 1250≦Vt(t)<1300, ..., 1600≦Vt(t)<1650, ..." determined by the train voltage section definition shown in the row of the substation equipment code "S001" among the various equipment section definitions in the section definition data 13c in Figure 6b, the train running history data 13a with the substation equipment code "S001", the direction "downbound", and the time section "10:00:00-11:00:00" will be further divided by the train voltage section and will be represented as shown in the first to fourth lines of the train power energy data in Figure 7a. The substation equipment operation record data 13b can be divided based on the substation equipment voltage section in the same manner as the train running record data 13a is divided based on the train voltage section.

[0076] Different sections may be set for the train voltage section and the substation voltage section. For example, when the train voltage section and the substation voltage section are different as shown in the row for the substation equipment code "S005" in each equipment section definition in the section definition data 13c in Figure 6b, the train running history data 13a is divided into the train power amount data shown in rows 9 and 10 of Figure 7a, and the substation equipment operation history data 13b is divided into the train power amount data shown in row 7 of Figure 7b. Note that the above-described method of dividing the train running history data 13a and the substation equipment operation history data 13b based on the train voltage section and the substation equipment voltage section included in each equipment section definition in the section definition data 13c is merely an example, and is not limited to this.

[0077] 8a and 8b are diagrams showing examples of data obtained by dividing the train running history data 13a shown in Fig. 2 and the substation equipment operation history data 13b shown in Fig. 3 using the position sections, time sections, train voltage sections, and substation equipment voltage sections defined by the section definition data 13c. In detail, Fig. 8a is a diagram showing an example of data obtained by dividing the train running history data 13a shown in Fig. 2 using the position sections, time sections, and train voltage sections defined by the section definition data 13c, and linking the corresponding position sections, time sections, and train voltage sections, and Fig. 8b is a diagram showing an example of data obtained by dividing the substation equipment operation history data 13b shown in Fig. 3 using the time sections and substation equipment voltage sections defined by the section definition data 13c, and linking the corresponding time sections and substation equipment voltage sections. The power consumption data calculation unit 121 calculates the power consumption data 13d by linking the data shown in Figures 8a and 8b, which has matching information on date, location, time, and voltage, to the temperature range and weather (rain) range defined by the range definition data 13c, and calculating statistics of the power-related data.

[0078] The temperature sections defined by the section definition data 13c are temperature-related sections and are used to calculate train power energy data in the power energy data calculation unit 121. Because changes in outside temperature affect the amount of power consumed by the train 2, changes in outside temperature can be said to affect the operating status of the substation 3. For example, when the outside temperature is high, the amount of power consumed by the train 2's interior air conditioning equipment increases, which can potentially reduce the amount of power charged or regenerated by the substation 3. By associating the temperature sections defined by the section definition data 13c with the train running history data 13a, it is possible to calculate power energy data 13d linked to the temperature-related sections. When predicting the future operating status of the substation 3, using the power energy data 13d linked to the temperature-related sections enables predictions that take into account the impact of temperature on the operating status of the substation 3, which is expected to result in more accurate predictions.

[0079] As a method of linking the temperature section to the train power amount data, for example, an average value of the outside air temperature for each train 2 in the target train running history data 13a is calculated, and the average value of the outside air temperature for the target train running history data 13a is calculated based on the average value of the outside air temperature for each train 2. Specifically, among the train running history data 13a divided based on the position section, time section, and train voltage section determined by the section definition data 13c shown in Fig. 8a, an average value of the outside air temperature is calculated for each train 2 with a different train formation number based on the data having the same train formation number, substation equipment code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section as shown in the first to third lines of Fig. 8a. As shown in lines 1 to 3 of Figure 8a, all of the outside temperature values ​​are "18.8," so the average outside temperature is calculated to be "18.8" for the data with train formation number "T0001," substation code "S001," direction "downbound," date "2023 / 04 / 01," time period "10:00:00-11:00:00," and train voltage period "1450-1500." The average outside temperature corresponding to the target data is calculated based on the average outside temperatures for each train 2, and the corresponding temperature period is linked. When the average outside temperature is calculated to be "18.8," "18-19" is linked as the corresponding temperature period. Note that the method of linking the outside temperature to train power consumption data is not limited to this. For example, the average outside temperature may be calculated directly from the target data without distinguishing the data by train formation number. Specifically, among the train running history data 13a divided based on the location section, time section, and train voltage section included in the section definition data 13c, data having the same substation code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section may be used to calculate the average outside air temperature, and the corresponding temperature section may be linked.Furthermore, among the train running history data 13a divided based on the location section, time section, and train voltage section included in the section definition data 13c, data having the same substation code, direction, date, and time section may be used to calculate the average outside air temperature, and the corresponding temperature section may be linked.

[0080] The weather (rain) section defined by the section definition data 13c is a section related to rainfall conditions and is used to calculate train power energy data in the power energy data calculation unit 121. Whether the weather is rainy or not may affect the operation status and power consumption of the train 2. For example, delays are more likely to occur in rainy weather than in sunny weather, and braking is more likely to occur slowly in rainy weather than in sunny weather due to slipperiness. Therefore, it can be said that rainfall conditions affect the operating status of the substation equipment 3. By correlating the weather (rain) section defined by the section definition data 13c with the train running history data 13a, it is possible to calculate power energy data 13d linked to sections related to rainfall conditions. When predicting the future operating status of the substation equipment 3, using the power energy data 13d linked to sections related to rainfall conditions enables predictions that take into account the impact of rainfall conditions on the operating status of the substation equipment 3, which is expected to result in more accurate predictions.

[0081] As a method for linking the weather (rain) section to the train power energy data, for example, the rainfall conditions for each train 2 in the target train running history data 13a are calculated, and the rainfall conditions for the target train running history data 13a are calculated based on the rainfall conditions for each train 2. Specifically, among the train running history data 13a divided based on the position section, time section, and train voltage section defined by the section definition data 13c shown in Fig. 8a, the proportion of data in which the wiper operation status is "TRUE" (operating state) included in the train running history data 13a is calculated as the rainfall condition for each train 2 with a different train running number based on the data having the same train formation number, substation code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section as shown in the first to third lines of Fig. 8a, and the average value of the rainfall conditions for each train 2 is calculated to link the corresponding weather (rain) section. Here, when the weather (rain) section is "0, 0 < W(t) ≦ 10, 10 < W(t) ≦ 20, ..., 90 < W(t) ≦ 100" and 40 of the 100 target data are "TRUE," the rainfall status is calculated as 40%, and the weather (rain) section "30-40" is linked. Note that the method of linking the rainfall status to the train power energy data based on the weather (rain) section is not limited to this. For example, the rainfall status may be calculated directly from the target data without distinguishing the data by the train set number. Specifically, the rainfall status may be calculated using data with the same substation code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section among the train running history data 13a divided based on the position section, time section, and train voltage section included in the section definition data 13c, and the corresponding weather (rain) section may be linked. For example, the rainfall conditions may be calculated using data with the same substation equipment code, direction, date, and time section from the train running performance data 13a divided based on the location section, time section, and train voltage section included in the section definition data 13c, and the corresponding weather (rain) section may be linked.

[0082] Note that the sections defined by the section definition data 13c linked to the power amount data 13d are not limited to these. For example, when the train running performance data 13a includes data on the occupancy rate of each train 2 and the section definition data 13c includes a section definition on the occupancy rate of each train 2, the sections related to the occupancy rate of each corresponding train 2 may be linked.

[0083] The power amount data calculation unit 121 calculates statistical quantities including integrated values ​​of power-related data for data that match the substation equipment code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section of the train running history data 13a divided based on the sections defined by the section definition data 13c, and calculates train power amount data. The power amount data calculation unit 121 also calculates statistical quantities of power for data that match the substation equipment code, date, time section, and substation equipment voltage section of the substation equipment operation history data 13b divided based on the sections defined by the section definition data 13c, and calculates substation equipment power amount data. The power amount data calculation unit 121 calculates minimum, maximum, variance, and other statistical quantities.

[0084] Among the train power energy data, statistical quantities of data related to power calculated by the power energy data calculation unit 121 include, but are not limited to, a power running energy amount, which is an integrated value of power running energy, a regenerative energy amount, which is an integrated value of regenerative energy, a regenerative energy minimum value, which is the minimum value of regenerative energy, a regenerative energy maximum value, which is the maximum value of regenerative energy, and a regenerative energy reduction amount, which is an integrated value of regenerative energy reduction.Other examples that may be calculated include an average value of regenerative energy and a variance of regenerative energy.

[0085] As a method for calculating the traction power amount, which is a statistical quantity of power-related data, for example, among the values ​​obtained by multiplying the overhead line voltage by the overhead line current included in the target train running history data 13a, positive values ​​are calculated as the traction power, and the calculated traction power amounts are calculated by adding up the calculated traction power amounts. Specifically, among the train running history data 13a divided based on the position section, time section, and train voltage section defined by the section definition data 13c shown in FIG. 8a, the traction power amount is calculated based on data having the same train formation number, substation code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section, as shown in the first to third rows of FIG. 8a. First, the traction power is calculated for each row of data. As shown in the first row of FIG. 8a, when the overhead line voltage is "1482" and the overhead line current is "15.7", the traction power is calculated as "23.3 (kW)" by multiplying the overhead line voltage by the overhead line current. Next, the traction power amounts are calculated by adding up the traction power amounts calculated for each row of data. By adding up the traction power calculated in the same manner for data with the same train formation number, substation code, direction, date, time interval, and train voltage interval as the first row of Figure 8a, the traction power amount is calculated for the data with train formation number "T0001", substation code "S001", direction "downbound", date "2023 / 04 / 01", time interval "10:00:00-11:00:00", and train voltage interval "1450-1500". Next, the power running energy for data with the same substation code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section but different train formation numbers is calculated by adding up the calculated power running energy for the data with the substation code "S001," the direction "outbound," the date "2023 / 04 / 01," the time section "10:00:00-11:00:00," and the train voltage section "1450-1500." Note that the method for calculating the power running energy is not limited to this. For example, the power running energy may be calculated directly from the target data without distinguishing the data by the train formation number. Specifically, the power running energy may be calculated using data with the same substation code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section among the train running history data 13a divided based on the position section, time section, and train voltage section included in the section definition data 13c.

[0086] As a method for calculating the amount of regenerative power, which is a statistical quantity of power-related data, for example, negative values ​​obtained by multiplying the overhead line voltage by the overhead line current included in the target train running history data 13a are calculated as regenerative power, and the calculated regenerative power is added together to calculate the amount of regenerative power. Specifically, the amount of regenerative power is calculated based on data having the same train formation number, substation code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section, as shown in lines 6 to 8 of FIG. 8a, among the train running history data 13a divided based on the location section, time section, and train voltage section defined by the section definition data 13c. First, the regenerative power is calculated for each row of data. As shown in line 6 of FIG. 8a, when the overhead line voltage is "1676" and the overhead line current is "-63.0," the regenerative power is calculated as "105.6 (kW)" by multiplying the overhead line voltage by the overhead line current. Next, the regenerative power calculated for each row of data is added together to calculate the amount of regenerative power. By adding up the regenerative power calculated in the same manner for data with the same train formation number, substation code, direction, date, time interval, and train voltage interval as those in the sixth row of Figure 8a, the amount of regenerative power is calculated for the data with train formation number "T0001", substation code "S001", direction "upbound", date "2023 / 04 / 01", time interval "15:00:00-15:30:00", and train voltage interval "1650-1750". Next, the regenerative energy amounts calculated for data with the same substation code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section but different train formation numbers are added together to calculate the regenerative energy amount for the data with the substation code "S001," the direction "outbound," the date "2023 / 04 / 01," the time section "15:00:00-15:30:00," and the train voltage section "1650-1750." Note that the method for calculating the regenerative energy amount is not limited to this. For example, the regenerative energy amount may be calculated directly from the target data without distinguishing the data by the train formation number. Specifically, the regenerative energy amount may be calculated using data with the same substation code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section among the train running history data 13a divided based on the position section, time section, and train voltage section included in the section definition data 13c.

[0087] As a method for calculating the minimum and maximum regenerative power values, which are statistical quantities of power-related data, for example, the regenerative power is calculated by multiplying the overhead line voltage and overhead line current contained in the target train running history data 13a, and the smallest regenerative power value is calculated as the minimum regenerative power value, and the largest regenerative power value is calculated as the maximum regenerative power value. Specifically, the minimum and maximum regenerative power values ​​are calculated based on data having the same train formation number, substation code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section, as shown in lines 6 to 8 of Figure 8a, from the train running history data 13a divided based on the position section, time section, and train voltage section defined by the section definition data 13c. First, the regenerative power is calculated for each row of data. As shown in the sixth row of Figure 8a, when the overhead line voltage is "1676" and the overhead line current is "-63.0", the regenerative power is calculated as "105.6 (kW)" by multiplying the overhead line voltage by the overhead line current. Next, the regenerative power values ​​calculated for the data in each row are compared to calculate the minimum and maximum regenerative power values. For data with the same train formation number, substation code, direction, date, time interval, and train voltage interval as the sixth row of Figure 8a, the smallest regenerative power value among the calculated regenerative powers is set as the minimum regenerative power value, and the largest regenerative power value is set as the maximum regenerative power value, thereby calculating the minimum regenerative power value and the maximum regenerative power value for the data with train formation number "T0001", substation code "S001", direction "Up", date "2023 / 04 / 01", time interval "15:00:00-15:30:00", and train voltage interval "1650-1750". Next, for data in which the substation code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section are the same but the train formation numbers are different, the smallest regenerative power value is set as the minimum regenerative power value and the largest regenerative power value is set as the maximum regenerative power value, thereby calculating the minimum and maximum regenerative power values ​​for the data with substation code "S001," direction "downbound," date "2023 / 04 / 01," time section "15:00:00-15:30:00," and train voltage section "1650-1750." Note that the method for calculating the minimum and maximum regenerative power values ​​is not limited to these.For example, the minimum and maximum regenerative power values ​​may be calculated directly from the target data without distinguishing the data by the train formation number. Specifically, the minimum and maximum regenerative power values ​​may be calculated using data of the train running performance data 13a that has been divided based on the position section, time section, and train voltage section included in the section definition data 13c, and that has the same substation code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section.

[0088] As a method for calculating the regenerative power reduction amount, which is a statistical quantity of power-related data, for example, the negative value of the overhead line voltage multiplied by the overhead line current included in the target train running history data 13a is calculated as the regenerative power, the regenerative power reduction amount is calculated based on the regenerative power, the regenerative braking force command, and the regenerative braking force actual result, and the calculated regenerative power reduction amount is calculated by adding up the regenerative power reduction amount. Here, a method for calculating the regenerative power reduction amount based on the regenerative power, the regenerative braking force command, and the regenerative braking force actual result will be described. If the regenerative power is Pr and the regenerative power reduction amount is Pl, the ideal regenerative power Pi is calculated according to the following equation (13).

[0089] (Equation 13) Formula (13)

[0090] Furthermore, when the regenerative braking force command is Fc and the actual regenerative braking force is Fa, the ideal regenerative power Pi is calculated according to the following equation (14).

[0091] (Equation 14) Formula (14)

[0092] Since the ideal regenerative power is calculated according to equations (13) and (14), the regenerative throttle power P1 is calculated according to the following equation (15).

[0093] (Number 15) Formula (15)

[0094] Specifically, the method for calculating the regenerative power reduction amount is as follows: The train running history data 13a is divided based on the location section, time section, and train voltage section defined by the section definition data 13c shown in FIG. 8a. The regenerative power reduction amount is calculated based on data with the same train formation number, substation code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section, as shown in lines 6 to 8 of FIG. 8a. First, the regenerative power reduction amount is calculated for each row of data. As shown in line 6 of FIG. 8a, when the overhead line voltage is "1676" and the overhead line current is "-63.0," the regenerative power is calculated as "105.6 (kW)" by multiplying the overhead line voltage by the overhead line current. As shown in line 6 of FIG. 8a, the regenerative braking force command is "6000," the actual regenerative braking force is "5800," and the regenerative power is calculated as "105.6." Therefore, according to equation (15), the regenerative power reduction amount is calculated as "3.6 (kW)." Next, the regenerative throttled power amount is calculated by adding up the regenerative throttled power calculated for each row of data. By adding up the regenerative throttled power calculated in the same manner for the data with the same train set number, substation code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section as the sixth row of Figure 8a, the regenerative throttled power amount is calculated for the data with train set number "T0001," substation code "S001," direction "upbound," date "2023 / 04 / 01," time section "15:00:00-15:30:00," and train voltage section "1650-1750." Next, by adding up the regeneratively limited power amounts calculated for data with the same substation code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section but different train formation numbers, the regeneratively limited power amount for data with substation code "S001," direction "downbound," date "2023 / 04 / 01," time section "15:00:00-15:30:00," and train voltage section "1650-1750" is calculated. Note that the method for calculating the regeneratively limited power amount is not limited to these. For example, the regeneratively limited power amount may be calculated directly from the target data without distinguishing the data by train formation number.Specifically, the regenerative narrowing power amount may be calculated using data from the train running performance data 13a divided based on the location section, time section, and train voltage section included in the section definition data 13c, which has the same substation equipment code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section.

[0095] Among the substation equipment power amount data, the statistical quantities of the data related to power calculated by the power amount data calculation unit 121 include, for example, the substation equipment discharge supply power amount, which is the integrated value of the power discharged or supplied by the substation equipment 3, and the substation equipment charge regeneration power amount, which is the integrated value of the power charged or regenerated by the substation equipment 3. Note that the calculated statistical quantities are not limited to these.

[0096] As a method for calculating the amount of substation equipment discharge supply power, which is a statistical quantity of data related to power in the substation equipment power amount data, for example, positive values ​​of power included in the target substation equipment operation history data 13b are calculated as substation equipment discharge supply power, which is the power discharged or supplied, and the calculated substation equipment discharge supply power is added up to calculate the amount of substation equipment discharge supply power. Specifically, among the substation equipment operation history data 13b divided based on the time intervals and substation equipment voltage intervals defined by the interval definition data 13c shown in FIG. 8b, the amount of substation equipment discharge supply power is calculated based on data with the same substation equipment code, date, time interval, and substation equipment voltage interval, as shown in lines 3 to 5 of FIG. 8b. First, the substation equipment discharge supply power is calculated for each row of data. As shown in line 3 of FIG. 8b, when the power is "38," the substation equipment discharge supply power is calculated as "38 (kW)." Next, the amount of substation equipment discharge supply power calculated for each row of data is calculated by adding up the substation equipment discharge supply power calculated for each row of data. For data with the same substation equipment code, date, time interval, and substation equipment voltage interval as those in the third row of Figure 8b, the substation equipment discharge supply power calculated in the same manner is added together to calculate the substation equipment discharge supply power amount for the data with the substation equipment code "S001", date "2023 / 04 / 01", time interval "10:00:00-11:00:00", and train voltage interval "1150-1200". Note that the method for calculating the substation equipment discharge supply power amount is not limited to these.

[0097] As a method for calculating the amount of charging and regenerative power at a substation, which is a statistical quantity of data related to power consumption at the substation, for example, negative values ​​of the power contained in the target substation operation history data 13b are calculated as the charging and regenerative power at the substation, which is the power that has been charged or regenerated, and the calculated charging and regenerative power at the substation is calculated by adding up the calculated charging and regenerative power. Specifically, among the substation operation history data 13b divided based on the time intervals and substation voltage intervals defined by the interval definition data 13c shown in FIG. 8b, the amount of charging and regenerative power at the substation is calculated based on data with the same substation code, date, time interval, and substation voltage interval, as shown in lines 6, 7, 9, and 10 of FIG. 8b. First, the charging and regenerative power at the substation is calculated for each row of data. As shown in line 6 of FIG. 8b, when the power is "-200," the charging and regenerative power at the substation is calculated as "200 (kW)." Next, the amount of charging and regenerative power at the substation is calculated by adding up the calculated amounts of charging and regenerative power for each row of data. For data with the same substation code, date, time section, and substation voltage section as those in the sixth row of FIG. 8b, the amount of charging and regenerative power at the substation is calculated for the data with the substation code "S001," the date "2023 / 04 / 01," the time section "15:00:00-16:00:00," and the train voltage section "1600-1650." Note that the method for calculating the amount of charging and regenerative power at the substation is not limited to these.

[0098] The power amount prediction unit 122 calculates power amount prediction data 13e including at least a prediction result of the future operation status of each substation equipment 3 based on the power amount data 13d, and stores the calculated power amount prediction data 13e in the storage unit 13. Examples of data indicating the operation status of the substation equipment 3 include a substation equipment charging / regenerating power amount, which is the amount of power charged or regenerated by the substation equipment 3, and a substation equipment discharging / supplying power amount, which is the amount of power discharged or supplied by the substation equipment 3. The power amount prediction unit 122 predicts at least one of the substation equipment charging / regenerating power amount and the substation equipment discharging / supplying power amount as data indicating the future operation status of the substation equipment 3. For example, if the substation equipment 3 is a power storage device that charges and discharges power, the power amount prediction unit 122 predicts the substation equipment charging / regenerating power amount and the substation equipment discharging / supplying power amount as the future operation status of the substation equipment 3. Furthermore, for example, if the substation 3 is a power converter that regenerates power, the amount of charging and regenerating power at the substation is predicted as the future operating status of the substation 3. Furthermore, for example, if the substation 3 is a substation that supplies and regenerates power, the amount of charging and regenerating power at the substation and the amount of discharging and supplying power at the substation are predicted as the future operating status of the substation 3. When the power amount prediction unit 122 predicts only one of the amount of charging and regenerating power or the amount of discharging and supplying power at the substation as the future operating status of the substation 3, the value of the operating status of the substation 3 that was not predicted is set to "0" in calculating the power amount prediction data 13e.

[0099] The details of the power amount prediction data 13e will be described using Fig. 9. Fig. 9 is a diagram showing an example of the power amount prediction data 13e. For example, as shown in Fig. 9, the power amount prediction data 13e includes data related to a substation equipment code, a date, a time interval, the amount of power discharged and supplied by the substation equipment, and the amount of power regenerated and charged by the substation equipment. Note that the power amount prediction data 13e shown in Fig. 9 is an example and is not limited to these.

[0100] When the power amount prediction unit 122 calculates the power amount prediction data 13e, the power amount data 13d calculated up to the time when the prediction starts can be used. For example, the prediction start time is 10:00:00 on April 2, 2023, and the items to be predicted are the amount of charging and regenerating power at the substation and the amount of discharging and supplying power at the substation for the time period "11:00:00-12:00:00" on the same day. In this case, the power amount data up to the time period "9:00:00-10:00:00" on April 2, 2023 can be used.

[0101] Various existing prediction techniques are used as a method for calculating the power amount prediction data 13e based on the power amount data 13d. For example, the method for calculating the power amount prediction data 13e involves extracting past power amount data 13d that includes the same temperature and weather (rain) intervals as those included in the power amount data 13d for the time interval immediately before the target prediction time, comparing statistics calculated from the extracted power amount data 13d with actual results for that day, calculating correction coefficients or the like that represent the differences, and calculating the power amount prediction data 13e based on the past power amount data 13d for the target prediction time and the calculated correction coefficients or the like.

[0102] 7a and 7b, the prediction start time is set to 10:00:00 on April 2, 2023, and power energy prediction data 13e for the substation 3 with the substation code "S001" for the date "2023 / 04 / 02" and the time interval "11:00:00-12:00:00" is calculated. The time interval immediately before the prediction target time is "9:00:00-10:00:00." As shown in the seventh and eighth lines of the train power energy data in FIG. 7a, when the substation code is "S001," the direction is "outbound," the date is "2023 / 04 / 02," and the time interval is "9:00:00-10:00:00," the weather (rain) interval is "10-20" and the temperature interval is "22-23." Therefore, from the power amount data 13d, the power amount data 13d having the substation code "S001", the direction "outbound", the time interval "9:00:00-10:00:00", the weather (rain) interval "10-20", and the temperature interval "22-23" is extracted. As a method of extraction, for example, train power amount data having the substation code "S001", the direction "outbound", the time interval "9:00:00-10:00:00", the weather (rain) interval "10-20", and the temperature interval "22-23" is extracted, and then substation power amount data having the same substation code, date, and time interval as the extracted train power amount data is extracted. Also, as shown in FIG. 6b, the direction of the location interval definition of the substation code "S001" is "inbound / outbound". Therefore, the power amount data 13d when the direction is "upbound" is extracted in the same manner as when the direction is "downbound."

[0103] Note that, instead of extracting only the power energy data 13d for the same temperature interval and weather (rain) interval, a certain tolerance for error may be set. For example, when the temperature interval included in the power energy data 13d for the time interval immediately preceding the target prediction time is "22-23," the power energy data 13d for the temperature interval corresponding to any one of "21-22, 22-23, 23-24" may be extracted.

[0104] The average values ​​of the power running energy, regenerative energy, minimum regenerative energy, maximum regenerative energy, regenerative energy reduction amount, substation discharge supply energy, and substation charging regenerative energy of the extracted energy amount data 13d are calculated for each direction and train voltage section, or for each substation voltage section. The calculated average values ​​of the power running energy, regenerative energy, minimum regenerative energy, maximum regenerative energy, regenerative energy reduction amount, substation discharge supply energy, and substation charging regenerative energy for each voltage section are compared with the actual results for that day, and a correction coefficient is calculated. Here, the actual results for the day are the power running energy, regenerative energy, minimum regenerative power, maximum regenerative power, regenerative narrowing energy, substation discharge supply energy, and substation charging regenerative energy for each train voltage section and each substation voltage section, out of the energy amount data 13d for which the substation code is "S001", the direction is "upbound" or "downbound", the date is "2023 / 04 / 02", and the time section is "9:00:00-10:00:00".

[0105] As a method for calculating the correction coefficient, for example, a correction coefficient for the amount of electric power discharged and supplied by the substation 3 is calculated based on the electric power data 13d extracted from the electric power data 13d in which the train voltage section and the substation voltage section are equal to or lower than the discharge supply start voltage, which is the reference voltage value at which the substation 3 discharges or supplies electric power. Also, for example, a correction coefficient for the amount of electric power regenerated and charged by the substation 3 is calculated based on the electric power data 13d extracted from the electric power data 13d in which the train voltage section and the substation voltage section are equal to or higher than the charge / regeneration start voltage, which is the reference voltage value at which the substation 3 charges or regenerates electric power.

[0106] Next, from the power amount data 13d, the power amount data 13d having the substation equipment code "S001", the time period "11:00:00-12:00:00", the weather (rain) period "10-20", and the temperature period "22-23" is extracted, and the average values ​​of the power running power amount, regenerative power amount, minimum regenerative power value, maximum regenerative power value, regenerative narrowing power amount, substation equipment discharge supply power amount, and substation equipment charge regenerative power amount of the extracted power amount data 13d are calculated for each direction and train voltage period, or for each substation equipment voltage period. Based on the calculated average values ​​for each direction and train voltage section or each substation voltage section of the power running power amount, regenerative power amount, minimum regenerative power amount, maximum regenerative power amount, regenerative throttled power amount, substation discharge supply power amount, and substation charge regenerative power amount for each direction and train voltage section, and the calculated correction coefficient, the substation discharge supply power amount and substation charge regenerative power amount for each substation voltage section of substation 3 are predicted for the time section "11:00:00-12:00:00" on date "2023 / 04 / 02" for substation code "S001". The substation discharge supply power amount and substation charge regenerative power amount calculated for each substation voltage section are respectively added up to calculate the substation discharge supply power amount and substation charge regenerative power amount in the power amount prediction data 13e.

[0107] The method of calculating the power amount prediction data 13e based on the power amount data 13d is not limited to these. For example, the power amount prediction data 13e may be calculated using a model created by machine learning using one or more items included in the power amount data 13d as feature quantities, or the power amount prediction data 13e may be calculated using a prediction technique based on artificial intelligence such as deep learning.

[0108] The power amount prediction data acquisition unit 12e acquires the power amount prediction data 13e from the storage unit 13 and outputs it to the communication unit 11. The power amount prediction data acquisition unit 12e may be a communication device, an interface of a communication device, or the power amount prediction device 1 itself.

[0109] The storage unit 13 stores section definition data 13c, power amount data 13d, and power amount prediction data 13e. When the train running record data acquisition unit 12a stores the train running record data 13a in the storage unit 13, the storage unit 13 stores the train running record data 13a. When the substation equipment operation record data acquisition unit 12b stores the substation equipment operation record data 13b in the storage unit 13, the storage unit 13 stores the substation equipment operation record data 13b.

[0110] Next, details of the processing performed by the processing unit 12 of the power amount prediction device 1 according to embodiment 1 will be described with reference to Fig. 10 and Fig. 11. Fig. 10 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power amount prediction device 1 according to embodiment 1. Fig. 11 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power amount data calculation unit 121 included in the power amount prediction device 1 according to embodiment 1.

[0111] In step S01, the train running record data acquisition unit 12a of the data acquisition unit 120 acquires the train running record data 13a from the communication unit 11. In step S02, the substation equipment operation record data acquisition unit 12b of the data acquisition unit 120 acquires the substation equipment operation record data 13b from the communication unit 11. In step S03, the section definition data acquisition unit 12c of the data acquisition unit 120 acquires the section definition data 13c from the storage unit 13. Note that the order of steps S01, S02, and S03 is not limited to the order shown in FIG. 10 and may be in any order. Furthermore, steps S01, S02, and S03 may be performed in parallel.

[0112] In step S04, the power amount data calculation unit 121 calculates the power amount data 13d based on the train running record data 13a, the substation equipment operation record data 13b, and the section definition data 13c.

[0113] FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing an example of a detailed procedure for the calculation of the power amount data 13d by the power amount data calculation unit 121 in step S04 shown in FIG.

[0114] In step S101, the electric energy data calculation unit 121 divides the train running history data 13a based on the position section determined by the position section definition included in the section definition data 13c and the running direction and running position included in the train running history data 13a. At this time, the substation equipment code and the direction of travel of the position section corresponding to the running direction and running position included in the train running history data 13a are linked to the divided train running history data 13a.

[0115] In step S102, the power amount data calculation unit 121 divides the train running history data 13a and the substation equipment operation history data 13b based on the time intervals determined by the time interval definitions included in the section definition data 13c. Here, the power amount data calculation unit 121 further divides the train running history data 13a divided in step S101 based on the time intervals and the times included in the train running history data 13a, and links the time intervals corresponding to the times included in the train running history data 13a. In addition, the power amount data calculation unit 121 further divides the substation equipment operation history data 13b divided in step S101 based on the time intervals and the times included in the substation equipment operation history data 13b, and links the time intervals corresponding to the times included in the substation equipment operation history data 13b.

[0116] In step S103, the power amount data calculation unit 121 divides the train running history data 13a and the substation equipment operation history data 13b based on the train voltage section and the substation equipment voltage section defined by the train voltage section definition and the substation equipment voltage section definition included in the section definition data 13c. Here, the power amount data calculation unit 121 further divides the train running history data 13a divided in step S102 based on the train voltage section and the overhead line voltage included in the train running history data 13a, and links the train voltage section corresponding to the overhead line voltage included in the train running history data 13a. In addition, the power amount data calculation unit 121 further divides the substation equipment operation history data 13b divided in step S102 based on the substation equipment voltage section and the voltage included in the substation equipment operation history data 13b, and links the substation equipment voltage section corresponding to the voltage included in the substation equipment operation history data 13b. The method of dividing the train running history data 13a and the substation operation history data 13b based on the train voltage section and the substation voltage section determined by the section definition data 13c is not limited to this.

[0117] The order of steps S101, S102, and S103 is not limited to the order shown in FIG. 11, and may be any order.

[0118] The train running record data 13a divided in steps S101 to S103 is shown in Fig. 8a. The substation equipment operation record data 13b divided in steps S101 to S103 is shown in Fig. 8b.

[0119] Next, in steps S201 to S207, the electric energy data calculation unit 121 calculates statistics for each item included in the electric energy data 13d based on the train running history data 13a divided in steps S101 to S103 and the substation equipment operation history data 13b divided in steps S101 to S103. The electric energy data calculation unit 121 performs the following processing in steps S201 to S207 on each piece of data among the train running history data 13a divided in steps S101 to S103, for which the substation equipment code, direction, date, time section, and train voltage section all match, as shown in the first to third lines of Fig. 8a, for example. In addition, the following processing of steps S201 to S207 is performed on each piece of data among the substation equipment operation performance data 13b divided in steps S101 to S103, for which the substation equipment code, date, time interval, and substation equipment voltage interval all match, as shown in lines 3 to 5 of Figure 8b, for example.

[0120] In step S201, the average value of the outside air temperature included in the target train running history data 13a is calculated, and the temperature section including the calculated average value is linked among the temperature sections defined by the section definition data 13c. As a method for calculating the average value of the outside air temperature based on the target train running history data 13a, for example, the average value of the outside air temperature for each piece of data with different train formation numbers for the target train running history data 13a is calculated, and then the average value of the outside air temperature for the target train running history data 13a is calculated based on the average value of the outside air temperature for each piece of data with different train formation numbers. Note that the method for calculating the average value of the outside air temperature based on the target train running history data 13a is not limited to these. For example, the average value of the outside air temperature may be calculated directly from the target train running history data 13a without distinguishing between data with different train formation numbers.

[0121] In step S202, the rainfall conditions are calculated based on the wiper operation status included in the target train running history data 13a, and a weather (rain) section including the calculated rainfall conditions is linked to the weather (rain) section defined by the section definition data 13c. A method for calculating the rainfall conditions based on the wiper operation status, for example, is to calculate the percentage of "TRUE" data among all data for the target wiper operation status. Specifically, when 40 out of 100 target data are "TRUE," the rainfall conditions are set to 40%. Note that the method for calculating the rainfall conditions based on the wiper operation status is not limited to this. A method for calculating the rainfall conditions based on the target train running history data 13a is to calculate the rainfall conditions for each piece of data with different train set numbers for the target train running history data 13a, and then calculate the rainfall conditions corresponding to the target train running history data 13a based on the rainfall conditions for each piece of data with different train set numbers. Note that the method for calculating the rainfall conditions based on the target train running history data 13a is not limited to this. For example, the rainfall conditions may be calculated directly from the target train running performance data 13a without distinguishing between data with different train formation numbers.

[0122] In step S203, a statistical quantity related to regenerative power is calculated based on the overhead line voltage and overhead line current included in the target train running actual data 13a. Examples of the statistical quantity related to regenerative power include a regenerative power amount, which is an integrated value of regenerative power, a regenerative power minimum value, which is the minimum value of regenerative power, and a regenerative power maximum value, which is the maximum value of regenerative power. Note that the statistical quantity related to regenerative power is not limited to these. As a method for calculating the statistical quantity related to regenerative power based on the target train running actual data 13a, for example, the statistical quantity related to regenerative power for each piece of data with different train formation numbers for the target train running actual data 13a is calculated, and then the statistical quantity related to regenerative power corresponding to the target train running actual data 13a is calculated based on the statistical quantity related to regenerative power for each piece of data with different train formation numbers. Note that the method for calculating the statistical quantity related to regenerative power based on the target train running actual data 13a is not limited to these. For example, the statistical quantity related to regenerative power may be calculated directly from the target train running actual data 13a without distinguishing between data with different train formation numbers.

[0123] In step S204, a statistical quantity related to regenerative throttle power is calculated based on the overhead line voltage, overhead line current, regenerative brake force command, and regenerative brake force actual result included in the target train running actual data 13a. As the statistical quantity related to regenerative throttle power, for example, a regenerative throttle power amount, which is an integrated value of the regenerative throttle power, is calculated. Note that the statistical quantity related to regenerative throttle power is not limited to this. As a method for calculating the statistical quantity related to regenerative throttle power based on the target train running actual data 13a, for example, the statistical quantity related to regenerative throttle power for each piece of data with different train formation numbers for the target train running actual data 13a is calculated, and then the statistical quantity related to regenerative throttle power corresponding to the target train running actual data 13a is calculated based on the statistical quantity related to regenerative throttle power for each piece of data with different train formation numbers. Note that the method for calculating the statistical quantity related to regenerative throttle power based on the target train running actual data 13a is not limited to this. For example, the statistical quantity related to regenerative throttle power may be calculated directly from the target train running actual data 13a without distinguishing between data with different train formation numbers.

[0124] In step S205, a statistical quantity related to traction power is calculated based on the overhead line voltage and overhead line current included in the target train running actual data 13a. As the statistical quantity related to traction power, for example, a traction power amount, which is an integrated value of the traction power, is calculated. Note that the statistical quantity related to traction power is not limited to this. As a method for calculating the statistical quantity related to traction power based on the target train running actual data 13a, the statistical quantity related to traction power is calculated for each piece of data with different train formation numbers for the target train running actual data 13a, and then the statistical quantity related to traction power corresponding to the target train running actual data 13a is calculated based on the statistical quantity related to traction power for each piece of data with different train formation numbers. Note that the method for calculating the statistical quantity related to traction power based on the target train running actual data 13a is not limited to this. For example, the statistical quantity related to traction power may be calculated directly from the target train running actual data 13a without distinguishing between data with different train formation numbers.

[0125] In step S206, statistics related to the substation charging and regenerative power are calculated based on the voltage and current or power included in the target substation equipment operation record data 13b. Here, if only statistics related to the substation equipment discharge supply power are calculated out of statistics related to the substation equipment charging and regenerative power and statistics related to the substation equipment discharge supply power, the statistics related to the substation equipment charging and regenerative power do not need to be calculated. If statistics related to the substation equipment charging and regenerative power are not calculated, the value of the statistics may be set to "0". As statistics related to the substation equipment charging and regenerative power, for example, the amount of substation charging and regenerative power is calculated. The amount of substation charging and regenerative power is the integrated value of the power charged or regenerated by the substation equipment 3. Note that the statistics related to the substation equipment charging and regenerative power are not limited to these.

[0126] In step S207, statistics related to the substation equipment discharge supply power are calculated based on the voltage and current or power included in the target substation equipment operation performance data 13b. Here, if only statistics related to the substation equipment charge regenerative power are calculated out of statistics related to the substation equipment charge regenerative power and statistics related to the substation equipment discharge supply power, the statistics related to the substation equipment discharge supply power do not need to be calculated. If statistics related to the substation equipment discharge supply power are not calculated, the value of the statistics may be set to "0". As statistics related to the substation equipment discharge supply power, for example, the amount of substation equipment discharge supply power is calculated. The amount of substation equipment discharge supply power is the integrated value of the power discharged or supplied by the substation equipment 3. Note that the statistics related to the substation equipment discharge supply power are not limited to these.

[0127] The order of steps S201 to S207 is not limited to the order shown in Fig. 11. Steps S201 to S207 may be performed in parallel.

[0128] Returning to the description of Fig. 10, in step S05, the power amount prediction unit 122 calculates power amount prediction data 13e based on the power amount data 13d. As a method for calculating the power amount prediction data 13e based on the power amount data 13d, various existing prediction techniques are used.

[0129] As described above, the power energy data calculation unit 121 of the power energy prediction device 1 according to the first embodiment divides the train running record data 13a and the substation operation record data 13b based on the section definition data 13c and calculates statistics to calculate power energy data 13d including substation influence information. The power energy prediction unit 122 of the power energy prediction device 1 then calculates power energy prediction data 13e including the future operation status of the substation equipment 3 based on the power energy data 13d. This configuration makes it possible to predict the future operation status of the substation equipment 3, taking into account the installation location, performance, and control characteristics of each substation equipment 3. This results in an effect of improving the accuracy of prediction of the future operation status of the substation equipment 3.

[0130] Furthermore, in the first embodiment, the power amount prediction device 1 calculates the power amount prediction data 13e based on the calculated power amount data 13d. With this configuration, it is possible to predict the future operating status of the substation equipment 3 without performing complex simulations such as simulations for calculating the future train operation status and the associated feeding voltage and current, thereby achieving the effect of reducing calculation costs.

[0131] Second Embodiment An energy prediction device 1a according to a second embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 12 to Fig. 14. In the second embodiment, the same components as those in the first embodiment are denoted by the same reference numerals, and the description will mainly focus on the configuration that differs from the first embodiment.

[0132] 12 is a diagram showing a configuration example of an electric energy prediction device 1a according to embodiment 2. In embodiment 2, the data acquisition unit 120 of the processing unit 12 of the electric energy prediction device 1a includes a timetable data acquisition unit 12f, the processing unit 12 of the electric energy prediction device 1a includes a train operation prediction unit 123, and the storage unit 13 of the electric energy prediction device 1a stores train running record data 13a and timetable data 13f.

[0133] The train schedule data acquisition unit 12f of the data acquisition unit 120 acquires train schedule data 13f from the storage unit 13 and outputs it to the train operation prediction unit 123. The train running performance data acquisition unit 12a of the data acquisition unit 120 stores the train running performance data 13a acquired by the communication unit 11 from the data collection device 4 in the storage unit 13. The train running performance data acquisition unit 12a acquires the train running performance data 13a from the storage unit 13 and outputs it to the power amount data calculation unit 121 and the train operation prediction unit 123. The train schedule data acquisition unit 12f and the train running performance data acquisition unit 12a may be communication devices, may be interfaces for communication devices, or may be the power amount prediction device 1a itself.

[0134] The train operation prediction unit 123 calculates operation prediction data 13g indicating the predicted results of the operation status of the train 2 in the future based on the timetable data 13f and the train running performance data 13a, and stores the calculated operation prediction data 13g in the storage unit 13. The data indicating the operation status of the train 2 includes, for example, the delay time of the train 2 or the occupancy rate of each train 2. Various existing prediction technologies are used as a method for predicting the operation status of the train 2 in the future.

[0135] The operation prediction data 13g will be described in detail using FIG. 13. FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of the operation prediction data 13g. For example, as shown in FIG. 13, the operation prediction data 13g includes data related to a substation code, a direction, a date, a time section, and an average delay time. Specifically, the data shown in the first row of the operation prediction data 13g in FIG. 13 predicts the delay time for a train 2 traveling within a location section where the substation code is "S001" and the direction is "downbound" on the date "2023 / 04 / 01" and the time section "10:00:00-11:00:00" based on the train running performance data 13a and the timetable data 13f, and indicates the result of calculating the average of the predicted delay times as an average delay time of "20 (minutes)." Note that the operation prediction data 13g is not limited to these.

[0136] The power amount prediction unit 122 calculates power amount prediction data 13e based on the operation prediction data 13g and the power amount data 13d. The power amount prediction unit 122 predicts the future operation status of the substation equipment 3 based on, for example, the power amount data 13d, corrects the prediction result of the operation status of the substation equipment 3 using the operation prediction data 13g, and calculates the power amount prediction data 13e.

[0137] The power amount prediction unit 122 corrects the predicted results of the operational status of the substation 3 by, for example, comparing the power amount data 13d having the same substation code, direction, and time interval as the prediction target with the power amount data 13d having the same substation code, direction, and time interval as the prediction target and having a similar average delay time in the operation prediction data 13g to calculate a correction coefficient or the like, thereby correcting the predicted results of the operational status of the substation 3. Specifically, the prediction target is assumed to be a substation code "S001," a direction "outbound," a date "2023 / 04 / 01," and a time interval "10:00:00-11:00:00," and the predicted results of the operational status of the substation 3 calculated from the power amount data 13d for this prediction target are corrected. As shown in the first row of the operation prediction data 13g in FIG. 13, it can be seen that the average delay time of the prediction target is predicted to be "20 (minutes)." Therefore, among the past operation prediction data 13g, the date of data for which the substation code is "S001", the direction is "outbound", the time section is "10:00:00-11:00:00", and the average delay time is between "15 minutes" and "25 minutes" is identified. The power amount data 13d for which the substation code is "S001", the direction is "outbound", the time section is "10:00:00-11:00:00", and the date is the same as the identified date is extracted. The power statistics calculated from the extracted power amount data 13d are compared with the power statistics calculated from the power amount data 13d for which the substation code is "S001", the direction is "outbound", and the time section is "10:00:00-11:00:00", and a correction coefficient and the like are calculated. The prediction result of the operating status of the substation equipment 3 is corrected based on the calculated correction coefficient. Note that the method for correcting the predicted result of the operation status of the substation equipment 3 is not limited to these. For example, the predicted result of the operation status of the substation equipment 3 may be corrected based on a correction coefficient corresponding to a delay time calculated in advance and the operation prediction data 13g for the prediction day. In addition, for example, the predicted result of the operation status of the substation equipment 3 may be corrected using a model created by machine learning, or the predicted result of the operation status of the substation equipment 3 may be corrected using a prediction technology based on artificial intelligence such as deep learning.

[0138] The method of calculating the power amount prediction data 13e based on the operation prediction data 13g and the power amount data 13d is not limited to these.

[0139] The train operation prediction unit 123 may be realized as one function in the power amount prediction device 1a, or may be a device provided outside the power amount prediction device 1a.

[0140] Next, details of the processing performed by the processing unit 12 of the power amount prediction device 1a according to the second embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 14. Fig. 14 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power amount prediction device 1a according to the second embodiment. The operation in Fig. 14 is the same as the operation in Fig. 10 except that step S11 is added before step S01 and step S12 is added between step S04 and step S05, and therefore steps S11 and S12 will be mainly described below.

[0141] In step S11, the timetable data acquisition unit 12f of the data acquisition unit 120 acquires timetable data 13f from the storage unit 13. In step S01, the train running history data acquisition unit 12a acquires train running history data 13a from the storage unit 13. Note that the order of steps S11, S01, S02, and S03 is not limited to the order shown in Fig. 14, and may be in any order. Also, steps S11, S01, S02, and S03 may be performed in parallel.

[0142] In step S12, the train operation prediction unit 123 calculates operation prediction data 13g, which is a prediction result of the operation status of the train 2 in the future, based on the timetable data 13f and the train running performance data 13a.

[0143] In step S05, the power amount prediction unit 122 calculates power amount prediction data 13e including the future operating status of the substation equipment 3 based on the operation prediction data 13g and the power amount data 13d.

[0144] The order of steps S04 and S12 is not limited to the order shown in Fig. 14. Steps S04 and S12 may be performed in parallel.

[0145] As described above, the energy prediction device 1a according to the second embodiment calculates operation prediction data 13g, which is a prediction result of the future operation status of the train 2, based on the timetable data 13f and the train running record data 13a. Then, the energy prediction device 1a calculates energy prediction data 13e, which includes the future operation status of the substation equipment 3, based on the energy data 13d and the operation prediction data 13g. With this configuration, when the train operation status is different from normal, it is possible to predict the future operation status of the substation equipment 3 in consideration of the future operation status of the train 2. As a result, even when the train operation status is different from normal, it is possible to improve the prediction accuracy of the future operation status of the substation equipment 3.

[0146] Third Embodiment An electric energy prediction device 1b according to a third embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 15 to Fig. 17. In the third embodiment, the same components as those in the first or second embodiment are denoted by the same reference numerals, and the configuration different from the first or second embodiment will be mainly described.

[0147] 15 is a diagram showing a configuration example of an energy prediction device 1b according to embodiment 3. In embodiment 3, the data acquisition unit 120 of the processing unit 12 of the energy prediction device 1b includes a section definition creation data acquisition unit 12h, the processing unit 12 of the energy prediction device 1b includes a section definition data creation unit 124, and the storage unit 13 of the energy prediction device 1b stores section definition creation data 13h.

[0148] The section definition creation data acquisition unit 12h of the data acquisition unit 120 acquires section definition creation data 13h from the storage unit 13. The section definition creation data acquisition unit 12h may be a communication device, an interface for a communication device, or the power amount prediction device 1b itself. The section definition creation data 13h is data including information regarding the installation location, performance, and control characteristics of each substation 3. Examples of information regarding the installation location, performance, and control characteristics of the substation 3 include the range of influence of the substation 3 and the reference voltage value for controlling the substation 3. FIG. 16 is a diagram illustrating an example of the section definition creation data 13h. For example, as shown in FIG. 16, the section definition creation data 13h includes data regarding the substation code, installation location, start point of the influence range, end point of the influence range, discharge supply start voltage, and charge regeneration start voltage. Note that the section definition creation data 13h is not limited to these.

[0149] The section definition data creation unit 124 creates section definition data 13c based on the section definition creation data 13h. The section definition data creation unit 124 determines the position section reference value A and the position section reference value B included in the position section definition of the section definition data 13c, for example, based on the influence range start point and the influence range end point included in the section definition creation data 13h. Specifically, as shown in the row for the substation equipment code "S001" in FIG. 16, the influence range start point included in the section definition creation data 13h is "2.0 (km)" and the influence range end point is "4.0 (km)." Based on this, the section definition data creation unit 124 may determine the position section reference value A and the position section reference value B included in the position section definition of the section definition data 13c to be "2.0 (km)" and "4.0 (km)," respectively, as shown in the row for the substation equipment code "S001" in FIG. 6b. In addition, the train voltage section reference value A and the train voltage section reference value B included in the train voltage section definition of the section definition data 13c, and the substation equipment voltage section reference value A and the substation equipment voltage section reference value B included in the substation equipment voltage section definition, may be determined based on the discharge supply start voltage and the charge regeneration start voltage included in the section definition creation data 13h.

[0150] Control of the substation 3 may change control characteristics such as the discharge supply start voltage or the charge regeneration start voltage. Such changes in the control characteristics of the substation 3 may affect the amount of power supplied and discharged by the substation 3 and the amount of power regenerated and charged. To accommodate such changes in the control characteristics of the substation 3, the section definition data creation unit 124 may regenerate the section definition data 13c in response to changes in the control characteristics of the substation 3 due to, for example, control of the substation 3. For example, as shown in the section definition creation data 13h in FIG. 16 , if the charge regeneration start voltage for the substation equipment code "S001" was "1600 (V)" but was changed to "1620 (V)" at a certain time, the section definition data 13c may be regenerated at the timing when the charge regeneration start voltage was changed. Note that the timing for regenerating the section definition data 13c is not limited to these examples.

[0151] Next, details of the processing performed by the processing unit 12 of the power amount prediction device 1b according to the third embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 17. Fig. 17 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power amount prediction device 1b according to the third embodiment. The operation shown in Fig. 17 is the same as the operation shown in Fig. 14 except that steps S21 and S22 are added between steps S02 and S03, and therefore steps S21 and S22 will be mainly described below.

[0152] In step S21, the section definition creation data acquisition unit 12h of the data acquisition unit 120 acquires the section definition creation data 13h from the storage unit 13.

[0153] In step S22, the section definition data creating unit 124 creates the section definition data 13c based on the section definition creating data 13h.

[0154] The order of the series of operations of steps S11, S01, S02, and S21, S22, and S03 is not limited to the order shown in Fig. 17. The series of operations of steps S11, S01, S02, and S21, S22, and S03 may be performed in parallel.

[0155] As described above, the power amount prediction device 1b according to the third embodiment creates the section definition data 13c based on the section definition creation data 13h. Furthermore, if the control characteristics of the substation 3 are variable, the section definition data 13c can be re-created based on the section definition creation data 13h that reflects changes in the control characteristics in accordance with changes in the control characteristics of the substation 3. This configuration makes it possible to predict the future operating status of the substation 3, taking into account the installation location, performance, and control characteristics of each substation 3. As a result, even if the installation location, performance, and control characteristics of the substation 3 to be predicted change, the prediction accuracy of the future operating status of the substation 3 can be improved.

[0156] 1, 1a, 1b Electric energy prediction device, 2 Train, 3 Substation equipment, 4 Data collection device, 5 External equipment, 11, 21, 31, 41, 51 Communication unit, 12 Processing unit, 12a Train running record data acquisition unit, 12b Substation equipment operation record data acquisition unit, 12c Section definition data acquisition unit, 12e Electric energy prediction data acquisition unit, 12f Timetable data acquisition unit, 12h Section definition creation data acquisition unit, 13 Storage unit, 13a Train running record data, 13b Substation equipment operation record data, 13c Section definition data, 13d Electric energy data, 13e Electric energy prediction data, 13f Timetable data, 13g Operation prediction data, 13h Section definition creation data, 101 Processor, 102 Memory, 103 Display, 104 Input interface, 121 Electric energy data calculation unit, 122 Electric energy prediction unit, 123 Train operation prediction unit, 124 Section definition data creation unit

Claims

1. An energy prediction device comprising: a data acquisition unit that acquires train running record data indicating the operating status of each train, substation equipment operation record data indicating the operating status of each substation equipment, and section definition data; an energy data calculation unit that calculates energy data including substation equipment influence information, which is information that affects the operating status of the substation equipment, based on the train running record data, the substation equipment operation record data, and the section definition data; and an energy prediction unit that calculates energy prediction data including prediction results of the future operating status of the substation equipment, based on the energy data.

2. The power amount prediction device according to claim 1, wherein the section definition data includes a section definition that defines a section relating to an item that affects the operating status of the substation equipment, among items included in at least one of the train running history data and the substation equipment operation history data.

3. The power amount prediction device according to claim 2, wherein the section definition data includes an all-equipment common section definition that is set in common to all of the substation equipment, and an equipment section definition that is set for each of the substation equipment.

4. The power amount prediction device according to claim 2 or claim 3, wherein the section definition data includes a time section definition that defines a time section, which is a section related to time, a position section definition that defines a position section, which is a section related to the direction of travel and running position of the train, a train voltage section definition that defines a train voltage section, which is a section related to the overhead line voltage measured by the train, and a substation voltage section definition that defines a substation voltage section, which is a section related to the voltage measured by the substation.

5. The power amount prediction device according to claim 1, wherein the substation facility impact information includes information relating to time, information relating to location, information relating to voltage, and information relating to power.

6. The energy prediction device according to claim 1, wherein the energy prediction unit calculates a correction coefficient that represents the difference between the energy data for the day being predicted and the energy data for the day before the day being predicted, and calculates the energy prediction data by correcting the energy data for the day before the day being predicted using the correction coefficient.

7. The energy prediction device of claim 1, further comprising a train operation prediction unit that calculates operation prediction data including prediction results of the train's future operation status, wherein the data acquisition unit acquires timetable data indicating the train's timetable, and the energy prediction unit calculates the energy prediction data based on the operation prediction data and the energy data.

8. The power amount prediction device according to claim 1 or claim 7, further comprising a section definition data creation unit that creates the section definition data based on section definition creation data including information on the installation location, performance, and control characteristics of the substation equipment, and the data acquisition unit acquires the section definition creation data.

9. A method for predicting electric energy comprising the steps of: acquiring train running record data indicating the operating status of each train, substation equipment operation record data indicating the operating status of each substation equipment, and section definition data; calculating electric energy data including substation equipment impact information, which is information that affects the operating status of the substation equipment, based on the train running record data, the substation equipment operation record data, and the section definition data; and calculating electric energy forecast data including predicted results of the operating status of the substation equipment in the future, based on the electric energy data.

10. A program that causes a computer system to execute the following steps: acquiring train running history data indicating the operating status of each train, substation equipment operation history data indicating the operating status of each substation equipment, and section definition data; calculating power consumption data including substation equipment impact information, which is information that affects the operating status of the substation equipment, based on the train running history data, the substation equipment operation history data, and the section definition data; and calculating power consumption forecast data including predicted results of the future operating status of the substation equipment, based on the power consumption data.

11. An energy prediction system comprising: the energy prediction device according to claim 1; a data collection device that manages the train running performance data and the substation equipment operation performance data; and external equipment that uses the energy prediction data.

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