A power load forecasting and demand response method and system

Abstract

This invention proposes a power load forecasting and demand response method and system. It employs a dynamic forecasting mechanism to predict power load data for the next time period. This power load data includes power load forecast data for a target subgrid area where the probability of a peak-valley switching event or a power anomaly event occurring in the next time period is greater than a preset probability threshold. The method also acquires demand response strategy configuration data for controllable electrical equipment configured with demand response strategies within the target subgrid area. Based on the demand response strategy configuration data, the method adjusts the power consumption mode of the controllable electrical equipment to ensure that the power parameters of the target subgrid area are within a safe range in the next time period. This improves the universality of demand response on the power consumption side, effectively enhances the grid's flexible load dispatching capability, suppresses the impact of sudden load changes, balances power demand during peak and valley periods, and significantly improves the power supply quality and economy of the grid.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of power grid management technology, and in particular to a method and system for power load forecasting and demand response. Background Technology

[0002] The safety, stability, and reliability of power systems are crucial indicators for grid management. However, influenced by peak-valley electricity demand fluctuations, sudden abnormal events such as equipment or line failures, or large-scale grid connection or disconnection of high-power equipment, the power grid's supply frequency and voltage may experience unexpected fluctuations, threatening the safety, stability, and reliability of the power system. Traditional control strategies rely on proactive responses on the power supply side to suppress power fluctuations. However, for significant changes in electrical equipment or the occurrence of abnormal events, adjustments to supply-side control strategies alone are clearly insufficient, leading to unavoidable and frequent impacts on the power supply side from grid frequency and voltage fluctuations. To address this issue, demand response on the power supply side has been proposed to assist grid management. Ideally, demand response on the power supply side can effectively improve the grid's flexible load dispatching capability, suppress the impact of sudden load changes, balance electricity demand during peak and valley periods, and significantly improve the power supply quality and economy of the grid. However, due to differences in electricity demand among different electrical devices, and the difficulty in determining the timing of specific equipment usage for different user groups or even individual users, the power supply frequency and voltage of these devices remain uncertain. Therefore, traditional demand response on the electricity side requires sacrificing the user experience and even affecting the user's normal work and life. It does not have the reasonable premise for large-scale promotion and implementation, and can only be used on a small scale in specific scenarios, with little impact on the overall power grid regulation. Summary of the Invention

[0003] Based on the above-mentioned problems, this invention proposes a power load forecasting and demand response method and system, which can improve the universality of demand response on the electricity demand side, effectively improve the flexible load dispatching capability of the power grid, suppress the impact of sudden load changes, balance electricity demand during peak and valley periods, and significantly improve the power supply quality and economy of the power grid.

[0004] In view of this, a first aspect of the present invention provides a method for electricity load forecasting and demand response, comprising:

[0005] Configure subnet nodes for dividing subnet regions, wherein the subnet nodes are branch nodes that divide one or more power grid branches in the power grid into subnet regions;

[0006] The power load data for the next time period is predicted using a dynamic prediction mechanism. The power load data includes the predicted power load data for the target subgrid area where the probability of a peak-valley switching event or a power anomaly event occurring in the next time period is greater than a preset probability threshold.

[0007] Obtain the demand response policy configuration data of controllable electrical equipment with demand response policies configured in the target subnet area;

[0008] The power consumption mode of the controllable electrical equipment is adjusted according to the demand response strategy configuration data so that the power parameters of the target subnet area are within a safe range in the next time period.

[0009] Furthermore, the specific steps for configuring subnet nodes used to divide subnet regions include:

[0010] Record the electricity consumption data of each power grid branch over a period of time;

[0011] The electricity consumption data is analyzed to extract the electricity consumption characteristics of each power grid branch, wherein the electricity consumption characteristics are the electricity consumption change characteristics of the power grid branch within the statistical period;

[0012] Connecting power grid branches with one or more identical or similar power consumption characteristics to the same subgrid node will merge them into a single subgrid area.

[0013] Furthermore, the specific steps for predicting the power load data for the next time period using a dynamic forecasting mechanism include:

[0014] Obtain historical electricity consumption data for each subnet area;

[0015] Based on the historical electricity consumption data, the probability of peak-valley switching events or power anomaly events occurring in each sub-network area within a statistical period is statistically calculated.

[0016] The subnet areas where the probability of a peak-valley switching event or a power anomaly event occurring in the next time period is greater than a preset probability threshold are identified as target subnet areas;

[0017] The power load of the target subnet area is predicted in the next stage to generate the power load data.

[0018] Furthermore, before the step of obtaining the demand response policy configuration data of controllable electrical equipment configured with demand response policies in the target subnet area, the method further includes:

[0019] Receive demand response policy configuration data reported by the power-consuming equipment in the target subnet area. The demand response policy configuration data includes configuration data for configuring the power-consuming equipment as an active response device or a passive response device. When the power-consuming equipment is configured as an active response device, the demand response policy configuration data also includes a response parameter range, which includes a range of delayed power consumption parameters or power consumption parameters.

[0020] The positive response device is configured as a first controllable electrical device, and the negative response device is configured as a second controllable electrical device.

[0021] Furthermore, the step of adjusting the power consumption mode of the controllable electrical equipment according to the demand response strategy configuration data specifically includes:

[0022] Load the demand response strategy configuration data for each first controllable electrical device;

[0023] Determine whether the demand response strategy configuration data of the first controllable electrical equipment includes a range of delayed power consumption parameters;

[0024] When the demand response strategy configuration data of the first controllable electrical equipment includes a range of delayed power consumption parameters, it is determined whether the first controllable electrical equipment meets the condition of delaying power consumption to the nearest off-peak period in the target sub-region based on the range of delayed power consumption parameters.

[0025] When the first controllable electrical device meets the condition of delaying its power consumption to the nearest off-peak period in the target sub-region, a delayed power consumption instruction is sent to the first controllable electrical device to delay its power consumption time to the off-peak period in the target sub-region, so as to suppress the fluctuation of power parameters in the sub-network area in the next time period caused by peak-valley switching events or power anomalies.

[0026] Furthermore, the step of adjusting the power consumption mode of the controllable electrical equipment according to the demand response strategy configuration data specifically includes:

[0027] Load the demand response strategy configuration data for each first controllable electrical device;

[0028] Determine whether the demand response strategy configuration data of the first controllable electrical equipment includes a power consumption parameter range;

[0029] When the demand response strategy configuration data of the first controllable electrical device includes a range of power consumption parameters, a power consumption adjustment command is sent to the first controllable electrical device to suppress power parameter fluctuations in the subnet area caused by peak-valley switching events or power anomalies in the next time period.

[0030] Furthermore, the power consumption parameter range includes a power consumption adjustment range and a duration range, and the step of sending a power consumption adjustment command to the first controllable electrical device includes:

[0031] Configure the target power consumption and duration of the first controllable electrical equipment based on the power consumption adjustment range and duration range;

[0032] Send a power adjustment command containing the target power consumption and the duration to the first controllable electrical device, so that the first controllable electrical device operates at the target power consumption during the time period corresponding to the duration.

[0033] Furthermore, before sending a delayed power consumption instruction to the first controllable electrical device to postpone the power consumption time of the first controllable electrical device to the off-peak period of the target sub-region, or before sending a power consumption adjustment instruction to the first controllable electrical device, the method further includes:

[0034] The first controllable electrical device is marked as waiting for a response;

[0035] Monitor the real-time power load data of the target subnet area;

[0036] Based on the real-time power load data of the target subnet area, determine whether to execute the step of sending a delayed power consumption instruction to the first controllable electrical device to delay the power consumption time of the first controllable electrical device to the off-peak period of the target subnet area, or to send a power consumption adjustment instruction to the first controllable electrical device.

[0037] After sending a delayed power consumption instruction to the first controllable electrical device to delay the power consumption time of the first controllable electrical device to the off-peak period of the target sub-region, or after sending a power consumption adjustment instruction to the first controllable electrical device, the method further includes marking the first controllable electrical device as a response state.

[0038] Furthermore, after configuring the negative response device as a second controllable electrical device, the method further includes:

[0039] Mark the second controllable electrical device as a request response status;

[0040] Receive response information from the second controllable electrical device;

[0041] When the response information of the second controllable electrical device is a response information, the second controllable electrical device is marked as waiting for a response.

[0042] A second aspect of the present invention provides an electricity load forecasting and demand response system, comprising a control layer, a monitoring layer, and a demand response layer. The demand response layer consists of controllable electrical devices connected to the power grid and configured with demand response strategy data. The monitoring layer includes power monitoring devices installed at various power grid branch nodes. The control layer includes a server communicatively connected to the controllable electrical devices and the power monitoring devices. The power monitoring devices monitor the electricity consumption data of each power grid branch and report it to the server. The server is configured to implement the electricity load forecasting and demand response method according to any one of the first aspects of the present invention based on the demand response strategy data and the electricity consumption data.

[0043] This invention proposes a power load forecasting and demand response method and system. It employs a dynamic forecasting mechanism to predict power load data for the next time period. This power load data includes power load forecast data for a target subgrid area where the probability of a peak-valley switching event or a power anomaly event occurring in the next time period is greater than a preset probability threshold. The method also acquires demand response strategy configuration data for controllable electrical equipment configured with demand response strategies within the target subgrid area. Based on the demand response strategy configuration data, the method adjusts the power consumption mode of the controllable electrical equipment to ensure that the power parameters of the target subgrid area are within a safe range in the next time period. This improves the universality of demand response on the power consumption side, effectively enhances the grid's flexible load dispatching capability, suppresses the impact of sudden load changes, balances power demand during peak and valley periods, and significantly improves the power supply quality and economy of the grid. Attached Figure Description

[0044] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of a power load forecasting and demand response method provided in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0045] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of an electricity load forecasting and demand response system provided in one embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0046] To better understand the above-mentioned objectives, features, and advantages of the present invention, the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. It should be noted that, unless otherwise specified, the embodiments and features described in these embodiments can be combined with each other.

[0047] Many specific details are set forth in the following description in order to provide a full understanding of the invention. However, the invention may also be practiced in other ways different from those described herein, and therefore the scope of protection of the invention is not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed below.

[0048] In the description of this invention, the term "multiple" refers to two or more. Unless otherwise explicitly defined, the terms "upper," "lower," etc., indicate the orientation or positional relationship based on the orientation or positional relationship shown in the accompanying drawings, and are only for the convenience of describing the invention and simplifying the description, and do not indicate or imply that the device or element referred to must have a specific orientation, or be constructed and operated in a specific orientation, and therefore should not be construed as a limitation of the invention. The terms "connect," "install," "fix," etc., should be interpreted broadly. For example, "connect" can be a fixed connection, a detachable connection, or an integral connection; it can be a direct connection or an indirect connection through an intermediate medium. Those skilled in the art can understand the specific meaning of the above terms in this invention according to the specific circumstances. Furthermore, the terms "first," "second," etc., are used for descriptive purposes only and should not be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly specifying the number of indicated technical features. Thus, a feature defined with "first," "second," etc., may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of that feature. In the description of this invention, unless otherwise stated, "multiple" means two or more.

[0049] In the description of this specification, the terms "one embodiment," "some implementations," "specific embodiment," etc., refer to a specific feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with that embodiment or example, which is included in at least one embodiment or example of the present invention. In this specification, the illustrative expressions of the above terms do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the specific features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in one or more embodiments or examples.

[0050] The following description, with reference to the accompanying drawings, illustrates a power load forecasting and demand response method and system according to some embodiments of the present invention.

[0051] like Figure 1 As shown, the first aspect of the present invention proposes a power load forecasting and demand response method, comprising:

[0052] Configure subnet nodes for dividing subnet regions, wherein the subnet nodes are branch nodes that divide one or more power grid branches in the power grid into subnet regions;

[0053] The power load data for the next time period is predicted using a dynamic prediction mechanism. The power load data includes the predicted power load data for the target subgrid area where the probability of a peak-valley switching event or a power anomaly event occurring in the next time period is greater than a preset probability threshold.

[0054] Obtain the demand response policy configuration data of controllable electrical equipment with demand response policies configured in the target subnet area;

[0055] The power consumption mode of the controllable electrical equipment is adjusted according to the demand response strategy configuration data so that the power parameters of the target subnet area are within a safe range in the next time period.

[0056] Specifically, in a power grid, a single power grid branch is divided into multiple power grid branches based on branch nodes. These branch nodes are typically devices used for power distribution, branch control, or voltage transformation, such as distribution boxes, circuit breakers, and substations. Each power grid branch is connected to one or more electrical devices. The subgrid area is a power consumption area composed of one or more power grid branches, and the electrical devices connected to each power grid branch are the basic units constituting the subgrid area.

[0057] In the step of predicting the power load data for the next time period using a dynamic prediction mechanism, the power load of the subgrid area can be predicted using specific prediction algorithms or artificial intelligence prediction models trained using machine learning. For example, traditional regression analysis algorithms, Bayesian algorithms, or moving average algorithms can be used to predict the power load, or artificial intelligence models such as random forest models, support vector machine models, and long short-term memory models can be trained to predict the power load. In specific implementation, the choice can be made based on the accuracy of different prediction methods, and this invention does not limit this selection.

[0058] Furthermore, before the step of using a dynamic prediction mechanism to predict the power load data for the next time period, the method also includes configuring the time period division cycle. Specifically, a time period division cycle can be configured as half an hour, one hour, or other time lengths. For example, using the hour as the dividing point, each day's 24 hours can be divided into 24 time periods, so that within one of these time period intervals, the power load for the next time period of each subnet area can be predicted. In the technical solution of this invention, unless otherwise specified, the current time period refers to the time period in which the execution of this step falls, and the next time period refers to the next time period adjacent to the current time period that is later than the current time period.

[0059] The peak-valley switching event refers to the event where a subgrid area switches from peak electricity consumption to off-peak electricity consumption, or vice versa. It should be understood that the timing of peak and off-peak periods often differs between different subgrid areas due to variations in electricity consumption characteristics (e.g., industrial, commercial, or residential), electrical equipment, and user electricity consumption habits. The peak-valley switching event is determined based on the actual electricity consumption data of a subgrid area, rather than on changes in artificially defined peak and off-peak periods. More specifically, the periods of high electricity consumption within a subgrid area's daily electricity consumption data are defined as peak periods, and the periods of low electricity consumption are defined as off-peak periods. Historical electricity consumption data of the subgrid area is used to statistically analyze its peak and off-peak electricity consumption values, thereby calculating a peak-valley boundary value. The event where the electricity consumption change of the subgrid area within a certain period exceeds this peak-valley boundary value is defined as the peak-valley switching event.

[0060] The power anomaly event refers to an abnormal event such as voltage fluctuation caused by the start / stop of high-power electrical equipment, equipment failure, line failure or other reasons in a subnet area. The power anomaly event includes events such as a significant increase or decrease in power consumption.

[0061] In some embodiments of the present invention, the probability of a peak-valley switching event or a power anomaly event occurring in a subgrid area within a time period is a statistical probability obtained by statistically analyzing the electricity consumption data for the corresponding time period in the historical electricity consumption data of the subgrid area.

[0062] The controllable electrical equipment refers to equipment that communicates with a server and can adjust its power consumption mode according to the server's control commands when needed. This adjustment includes adjusting the equipment's power consumption time and power consumption. The demand response strategy is a user-configured mode adjustment strategy configured by the user or equipment manufacturer on the electrical equipment, responding to the server's control commands. The purpose of configuring the demand response strategy is to prevent server control commands from affecting the normal functioning of the electrical equipment and the user experience, thereby improving the versatility of demand-responsive electrical equipment.

[0063] The power parameters include, but are not limited to, power supply voltage and frequency at each level of the power grid. The safe range is a pre-configured standard range for each power parameter. That is, by adjusting the power consumption mode of controllable electrical equipment in the target subgrid area, the fluctuation of power parameters in the subgrid area is suppressed, so that they always fluctuate within the preset standard range to ensure power supply safety.

[0064] Furthermore, the specific steps for configuring subnet nodes used to divide subnet regions include:

[0065] Record the electricity consumption data of each power grid branch over a period of time;

[0066] The electricity consumption data is analyzed to extract the electricity consumption characteristics of each power grid branch, wherein the electricity consumption characteristics are the electricity consumption change characteristics of the power grid branch within the statistical period;

[0067] Connecting power grid branches with one or more identical or similar power consumption characteristics to the same subgrid node will merge them into a single subgrid area.

[0068] The statistical period is a time period that reflects the periodic changes in electricity consumption, and it can be configured to a duration of one day, one week, etc. The electricity consumption characteristics include, but are not limited to, the peak electricity consumption, total electricity consumption, and peak period duration of the power grid branch.

[0069] Preferably, the statistical period is configured to be one day.

[0070] Preferably, the electricity consumption characteristics consist of peak electricity consumption time range and off-peak electricity consumption time range. The similarity of the electricity consumption characteristics of the two power grid branches means that the overlap of the peak electricity consumption time range and the overlap of the off-peak electricity consumption time range of the two electricity branches are both greater than a preset threshold.

[0071] Furthermore, in the step of merging power grid branches with one or more identical or similar power consumption characteristics connected to the same subgrid node into a subgrid area, each branch node is traversed sequentially from the end branch node upwards to merge power grid branches that are geographically adjacent and have identical or similar power consumption characteristics into a largest subgrid area. The end branch node is the last branch node, that is, the power grid branch connected to its rear end does not branch into more power grid branches.

[0072] Furthermore, the specific steps for predicting the power load data for the next time period using a dynamic forecasting mechanism include:

[0073] Obtain historical electricity consumption data for each subnet area;

[0074] Based on the historical electricity consumption data, the probability of peak-valley switching events or power anomaly events occurring in each sub-network area within a statistical period is statistically calculated.

[0075] The subnet areas where the probability of a peak-valley switching event or a power anomaly event occurring in the next time period is greater than a preset probability threshold are identified as target subnet areas;

[0076] The power load of the target subnet area is predicted in the next stage to generate the power load data.

[0077] In the technical solution of the above implementation, the dynamic prediction mechanism specifically involves dynamically identifying the probability of peak-valley switching events or power anomalies occurring in each subnet area in the next time period. This allows for the identification of target subnet areas where the probability of such events exceeds a preset probability threshold. The power load of these target subnet areas is then predicted using a specific prediction algorithm or an artificial intelligence prediction model trained through machine learning. For a large portion of electrical equipment, especially residential equipment, the off-peak electricity consumption period often spans a long, continuous period within a statistical cycle. Therefore, predicting the power load of all subnet areas for the next time period in every time period would waste significant computational resources. The dynamic prediction mechanism effectively reduces this unnecessary consumption of computational resources.

[0078] Furthermore, before the step of obtaining the demand response policy configuration data of controllable electrical equipment configured with demand response policies in the target subnet area, the method further includes:

[0079] Receive demand response policy configuration data reported by the power-consuming equipment in the target subnet area. The demand response policy configuration data includes configuration data for configuring the power-consuming equipment as an active response device or a passive response device. When the power-consuming equipment is configured as an active response device, the demand response policy configuration data also includes a response parameter range, which includes a range of delayed power consumption parameters or power consumption parameters.

[0080] The positive response device is configured as a first controllable electrical device, and the negative response device is configured as a second controllable electrical device.

[0081] The demand response strategy configuration data is stored on the power-consuming equipment and is either user-defined or configured by the manufacturer by default when the power-consuming equipment leaves the factory. It is used to respond to control requests from the server to adjust the power consumption mode.

[0082] In the step of receiving demand response policy configuration data reported by electrical devices in the target subnet area, the electrical device may proactively report the demand response policy configuration data to the server when it first establishes a communication connection with the server, or when the demand response policy on the electrical device changes. Alternatively, after each determination of the target subnet area, the server may send a demand response policy configuration data retrieval request to the electrical device to obtain the latest demand response policy configuration data for each controllable electrical device in the target subnet area.

[0083] In the above-described embodiment, the first controllable electrical device is an active response device, meaning it actively responds to control commands sent by the server to adjust its power consumption mode. In practical applications, devices whose power consumption time or power consumption can be adjusted within a certain range without significantly negatively impacting the user experience are typically configured as active response devices. The second controllable electrical device is a passive response device, meaning it only responds to control commands sent by the server to adjust its power consumption mode when the user provides feedback.

[0084] Furthermore, the step of adjusting the power consumption mode of the controllable electrical equipment according to the demand response strategy configuration data specifically includes:

[0085] Load the demand response strategy configuration data for each first controllable electrical device;

[0086] Determine whether the demand response strategy configuration data of the first controllable electrical equipment includes a range of delayed power consumption parameters;

[0087] When the demand response strategy configuration data of the first controllable electrical equipment includes a range of delayed power consumption parameters, it is determined whether the first controllable electrical equipment meets the condition of delaying power consumption to the nearest off-peak period in the target sub-region based on the range of delayed power consumption parameters.

[0088] When the first controllable electrical device meets the condition of delaying its power consumption to the nearest off-peak period in the target sub-region, a delayed power consumption instruction is sent to the first controllable electrical device to delay its power consumption time to the off-peak period in the target sub-region, so as to suppress the fluctuation of power parameters in the sub-network area in the next time period caused by peak-valley switching events or power anomalies.

[0089] Traditional delayed electricity usage typically involves users determining the peak and off-peak time ranges based on their electricity consumption experience or announcements from power companies, thus manually setting their own delayed electricity usage periods. This method relies on the user's active intervention. In the technical solution of the above-described embodiment of the present invention, the server identifies peak electricity consumption periods based on actual electricity usage, thereby adjusting the electricity usage time of controllable electrical devices configured with delayed electricity usage parameter ranges in the demand response strategy configuration data. For example, if a user charges a new energy vehicle during off-peak hours, they can configure the delayed electricity usage parameters based on the duration of their temporary vehicle absence, allowing the server to delay the charging time of the new energy vehicle from peak to off-peak periods.

[0090] It should be understood that the acceptable duration of delayed power consumption often varies depending on the type of equipment or the power consumption habits or needs of different users. The above implementation limits the server's adjustment of delayed power consumption for the first controllable power device by configuring a range of delayed power consumption parameters in the demand response strategy configuration data of the first controllable power device, thereby avoiding impacting the normal power consumption needs of the first controllable power device.

[0091] Furthermore, the step of adjusting the power consumption mode of the controllable electrical equipment according to the demand response strategy configuration data specifically includes:

[0092] Load the demand response strategy configuration data for each first controllable electrical device;

[0093] Determine whether the demand response strategy configuration data of the first controllable electrical equipment includes a power consumption parameter range;

[0094] When the demand response strategy configuration data of the first controllable electrical device includes a range of power consumption parameters, a power consumption adjustment command is sent to the first controllable electrical device to suppress power parameter fluctuations in the subnet area caused by peak-valley switching events or power anomalies in the next time period.

[0095] Except for some special or old electrical equipment, most electrical equipment can now have their power consumption adjusted by reducing voltage or frequency. For example, a voltage regulator can be used to reduce the brightness of a light bulb, or a frequency converter can be used to adjust the motor frequency of an air conditioner compressor. As long as the adjustment is made within the set standard range, the adjustment process is safe and will not affect the lifespan or performance of the electrical equipment.

[0096] Users or manufacturers can configure the power consumption parameter range to a small, acceptable adjustable range, so that when the server adjusts the power consumption of the first controllable electrical device, it does not affect the normal use of the first controllable electrical device. With a small power adjustment range, it can even achieve adjustment that is imperceptible to the user. When there are a sufficient number of controllable electrical devices in a subnet area, even if the power adjustment range of each first controllable electrical device is small, the cumulative adjustment of these first controllable electrical devices during peak electricity consumption periods can significantly reduce the electricity load of the subnet area. For example, if a user normally sets the air conditioner's cooling temperature to 20 degrees Celsius, during peak electricity consumption periods, if the server requests to adjust it to 21 degrees Celsius or 22 degrees Celsius, the user will not experience noticeable discomfort or strong discomfort in the short term.

[0097] Furthermore, the power consumption parameter range includes a power consumption adjustment range and a duration range, and the step of sending a power consumption adjustment command to the first controllable electrical device includes:

[0098] Configure the target power consumption and duration of the first controllable electrical equipment based on the power consumption adjustment range and duration range;

[0099] Send a power adjustment command containing the target power consumption and the duration to the first controllable electrical device, so that the first controllable electrical device operates at the target power consumption during the time period corresponding to the duration.

[0100] In the above-described embodiment, after receiving a power adjustment command that includes the target power consumption and the duration, the first controllable electrical device operates at the target power consumption and continues for the duration.

[0101] Furthermore, after the duration is reached, the first controllable electrical device resumes its original power consumption operation.

[0102] Furthermore, before sending a delayed power consumption instruction to the first controllable electrical device to postpone the power consumption time of the first controllable electrical device to the off-peak period of the target sub-region, or before sending a power consumption adjustment instruction to the first controllable electrical device, the method further includes:

[0103] The first controllable electrical device is marked as waiting for a response;

[0104] Monitor the real-time power load data of the target subnet area;

[0105] Based on the real-time power load data of the target subnet area, determine whether to execute the step of sending a delayed power consumption instruction to the first controllable electrical device to delay the power consumption time of the first controllable electrical device to the off-peak period of the target subnet area, or to send a power consumption adjustment instruction to the first controllable electrical device.

[0106] After sending a delayed power consumption instruction to the first controllable electrical device to delay the power consumption time of the first controllable electrical device to the off-peak period of the target sub-region, or after sending a power consumption adjustment instruction to the first controllable electrical device, the method further includes marking the first controllable electrical device as a response state.

[0107] In some embodiments of the present invention, the first controllable electrical device is provided with a status indicator device, such as a status indicator light, to indicate the status information of the first controllable electrical device being in a waiting response state and a response state.

[0108] In the waiting response state, the first controllable electrical device has not yet received the delayed power consumption instruction or the power consumption adjustment instruction. In this state, the user can determine whether to stop the response based on actual usage needs.

[0109] Furthermore, the first controllable electrical device is also equipped with a response control button, which is used to configure the first controllable electrical device as an uncontrollable electrical device when the first controllable electrical device is in a waiting response state and receives a stop response command triggered by the user using the response control button, and to report the information of configuring the first controllable electrical device as an uncontrollable electrical device to the server.

[0110] In the response state, the first controllable electrical device has received the delayed power consumption command or the power consumption adjustment command, but has not yet completed the power consumption behavior corresponding to the delayed power consumption command or the power consumption adjustment command. For example, the power consumption adjustment command includes a duration, and after receiving the power consumption adjustment command, the first controllable electrical device adjusts its power consumption accordingly. Within the duration, the first controllable electrical device is in the response state.

[0111] Furthermore, after configuring the negative response device as a second controllable electrical device, the method further includes:

[0112] Mark the second controllable electrical device as a request response status;

[0113] Receive response information from the second controllable electrical device;

[0114] When the response information of the second controllable electrical device is a response information, the second controllable electrical device is marked as waiting for a response.

[0115] In some embodiments of the present invention, the second controllable electrical device is provided with a status indicator device, such as a status indicator light, to indicate the status information of the second controllable electrical device being in a request-response state, a waiting-for-response state, or a response state.

[0116] Furthermore, the second controllable electrical device is also equipped with a response control button. In the request-response state, the indicator light of the second controllable electrical device flashes continuously to remind the user to use the response control button to operate, in order to respond to or cancel the power control request from the server, and send a response message to the server indicating whether the power control request is being responded to or canceled.

[0117] Furthermore, after marking the second controllable electrical device as awaiting a response, the method further includes:

[0118] Configure the default delay power consumption parameter range and default power consumption parameter range for the second controllable electrical device;

[0119] Monitor the real-time power load data of the target subnet area;

[0120] Based on the real-time power load data of the target subnet area, determine whether to execute the step of sending a delayed power consumption instruction to the second controllable electrical device to delay the power consumption time of the second controllable electrical device to the off-peak period of the target subnet area, or to send a power consumption adjustment instruction to the second controllable electrical device;

[0121] After sending a delayed power consumption instruction to the second controllable electrical device to delay the power consumption time of the second controllable electrical device to the off-peak period of the target sub-region, or after sending a power consumption adjustment instruction to the second controllable electrical device, the method further includes marking the second controllable electrical device as a response state.

[0122] Furthermore, after the step of receiving the response information from the second controllable electrical device, the method further includes:

[0123] When the response information of the second controllable electrical device is a cancellation response, the second controllable electrical device is configured as an uncontrollable electrical device.

[0124] like Figure 2 As shown, a second aspect of the present invention proposes an electricity load forecasting and demand response system, comprising a control layer, a monitoring layer, and a demand response layer. The demand response layer consists of controllable electrical devices connected to the power grid and configured with demand response strategy data. The monitoring layer includes power monitoring devices installed in various power grid branch nodes. The control layer includes a server communicatively connected to the controllable electrical devices and the power monitoring devices. The power monitoring devices are used to monitor the electricity consumption data of each power grid branch and report it to the server. The server is configured to implement the electricity load forecasting and demand response method according to any one of the first aspects of the present invention based on the demand response strategy data and the electricity consumption data.

[0125] It should be noted that, in this document, relational terms such as "first" and "second" are used merely to distinguish one entity or operation from another, and do not necessarily require or imply any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Furthermore, the terms "comprising," "including," or any other variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements includes not only those elements but also other elements not expressly listed, or elements inherent to such a process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising one..." does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in the process, method, article, or apparatus that includes said element.

[0126] As described above, these embodiments of the present invention do not exhaustively cover all details, nor do they limit the invention to the specific embodiments described. Clearly, many modifications and variations can be made based on the above description. This specification selects and specifically describes these embodiments to better explain the principles and practical applications of the invention, thereby enabling those skilled in the art to effectively utilize the invention and its modifications. The invention is limited only by the claims and their full scope and equivalents.

Claims

1. A method for electricity load forecasting and demand response, characterized in that, include: Configure subnet nodes for dividing subnet regions, wherein the subnet nodes are branch nodes that divide one or more power grid branches in the power grid into subnet regions; The power load data for the next time period is predicted using a dynamic prediction mechanism. The power load data includes the predicted power load data for the target subgrid area where the probability of a peak-valley switching event or a power anomaly event occurring in the next time period is greater than a preset probability threshold. Obtain the demand response policy configuration data of controllable electrical equipment with demand response policies configured in the target subnet area; The power consumption mode of the controllable electrical equipment is adjusted according to the demand response strategy configuration data so that the power parameters of the target subnet area are within a safe range in the next time period. Before the step of obtaining the demand response policy configuration data of controllable electrical equipment configured with demand response policies in the target subnet area, the method further includes: Receive demand response policy configuration data reported by the power-consuming equipment in the target subnet area. The demand response policy configuration data includes configuration data for configuring the power-consuming equipment as an active response device or a passive response device. When the power-consuming equipment is configured as an active response device, the demand response policy configuration data also includes a response parameter range, which includes a range of delayed power consumption parameters or power consumption parameters. The positive response device is configured as a first controllable electrical device, and the negative response device is configured as a second controllable electrical device; The steps for adjusting the power consumption mode of the controllable electrical equipment according to the demand response strategy configuration data specifically include: Load the demand response strategy configuration data for each first controllable electrical device; Determine whether the demand response strategy configuration data of the first controllable electrical equipment includes a range of delayed power consumption parameters; When the demand response strategy configuration data of the first controllable electrical device includes a range of delayed power consumption parameters, it is determined whether the first controllable electrical device meets the condition of delaying power consumption to the nearest off-peak period in the target subnet area based on the range of delayed power consumption parameters. When the first controllable electrical device meets the condition of delaying its power consumption to the nearest off-peak period in the target subgrid area, a delayed power consumption instruction is sent to the first controllable electrical device to delay its power consumption time to the off-peak period in the target subgrid area, so as to suppress the fluctuation of power parameters in the subgrid area in the next time period caused by peak-valley switching events or power anomalies.

2. The power load forecasting and demand response method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The specific steps for configuring subnet nodes used to divide subnet regions include: Record the electricity consumption data of each power grid branch over a period of time; The electricity consumption data is analyzed to extract the electricity consumption characteristics of each power grid branch, wherein the electricity consumption characteristics are the electricity consumption change characteristics of the power grid branch within the statistical period; Connecting power grid branches with one or more identical or similar power consumption characteristics to the same subgrid node will merge them into a single subgrid area.

3. The power load forecasting and demand response method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The specific steps for predicting power load data for the next time period using a dynamic forecasting mechanism include: Obtain historical electricity consumption data for each subnet area; Based on the historical electricity consumption data, the probability of peak-valley switching events or power anomaly events occurring in each sub-network area within a statistical period is statistically calculated. The subnet areas where the probability of a peak-valley switching event or a power anomaly event occurring in the next time period is greater than a preset probability threshold are identified as target subnet areas; The power load of the target subnet area is predicted in the next stage to generate the power load data.

4. The power load forecasting and demand response method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The steps for adjusting the power consumption mode of the controllable electrical equipment according to the demand response strategy configuration data specifically include: Load the demand response strategy configuration data for each first controllable electrical device; Determine whether the demand response strategy configuration data of the first controllable electrical equipment includes a power consumption parameter range; When the demand response strategy configuration data of the first controllable electrical device includes a range of power consumption parameters, a power consumption adjustment command is sent to the first controllable electrical device to suppress power parameter fluctuations in the subnet area caused by peak-valley switching events or power anomalies in the next time period.

5. The power load forecasting and demand response method according to claim 4, characterized in that, The power consumption parameter range includes a power consumption adjustment range and a duration range. The step of sending a power consumption adjustment command to the first controllable electrical device includes: Configure the target power consumption and duration of the first controllable electrical equipment based on the power consumption adjustment range and duration range; Send a power adjustment command containing the target power consumption and the duration to the first controllable electrical device, so that the first controllable electrical device operates at the target power consumption during the time period corresponding to the duration.

6. The power load forecasting and demand response method according to any one of claims 4-5, characterized in that, Before sending a delayed power consumption instruction to the first controllable electrical device to delay the power consumption time of the first controllable electrical device to the off-peak period of the target subgrid area, or before sending a power consumption adjustment instruction to the first controllable electrical device, the method further includes: The first controllable electrical device is marked as waiting for a response; Monitor the real-time power load data of the target subnet area; Based on the real-time power load data of the target subnet area, determine whether to execute the step of sending a delayed power consumption instruction to the first controllable electrical device to delay the power consumption time of the first controllable electrical device to the off-peak period of the target subnet area, or to send a power consumption adjustment instruction to the first controllable electrical device. After sending a delayed power consumption instruction to the first controllable electrical device to delay the power consumption time of the first controllable electrical device to the off-peak period of the target subgrid area, or after sending a power consumption adjustment instruction to the first controllable electrical device, the method further includes marking the first controllable electrical device as a response state.

7. The power load forecasting and demand response method according to claim 1, characterized in that, After configuring the passive response device as a second controllable electrical device, the method further includes: Mark the second controllable electrical device as a request response status; Receive response information from the second controllable electrical device; When the response information of the second controllable electrical device is a response information, the second controllable electrical device is marked as waiting for a response.

8. A power load forecasting and demand response system, characterized in that, The system comprises a control layer, a monitoring layer, and a demand response layer. The demand response layer consists of controllable electrical devices connected to the power grid and configured with demand response strategy data. The monitoring layer includes power monitoring devices installed at various power grid branch nodes. The control layer includes a server communicatively connected to the controllable electrical devices and the power monitoring devices. The power monitoring devices monitor the power consumption data of each power grid branch and report it to the server. The server is configured to implement the power load forecasting and demand response method as described in any one of claims 1-7 based on the demand response strategy data and the power consumption data.

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