Method for assessing the effectiveness of the management of fishing activities in marine protected areas

Abstract

The application discloses a kind of for evaluating the method of the effectiveness of the management of marine protected area to fishing activities, based on the fishing intensity of each small fishing area obtained by dividing small fishing area;Adjacent matrix of small fishing area is constructed, and the spatial dependence and heterogeneity in fishing intensity data are identified;Based on the probability distribution of fishing intensity data, the likelihood function of Bayesian method under model parameters is constructed, and further modeling is carried out in spatio-temporal model and hierarchical model respectively;Using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, input fishing intensity time series and small fishing area adjacent matrix complete the construction of Bayesian management effectiveness spatio-temporal hierarchical model;Based on the posterior distribution mean of Bayesian management effectiveness spatio-temporal hierarchical model, combined with the willingness of fisherman fishing, the effectiveness of the management of fishing activities is evaluated.The method realizes high-precision analysis on the spatio-temporal dynamic characteristics of fishing activities, overcomes the defects that traditional static model cannot capture spatio-temporal dynamic characteristics and random effect, and significantly improves the spatio-temporal resolution of evaluation.

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