Method and device for predicting number of infectious disease spreaders, electronic equipment and storage medium

By simulating the decline of immunity during the spread of infectious diseases using individual immune weakening functions, the problem of neglecting the dynamic changes of immunity in infectious disease models is solved, enabling accurate prediction of the number of people with infectious diseases and reliable guidance for vaccination strategies.

CN119400445BActive Publication Date: 2026-06-26SHENZHEN INST OF ADVANCED TECH
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Patents(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
SHENZHEN INST OF ADVANCED TECH
Filing Date
2024-10-14
Publication Date
2026-06-26

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing infectious disease transmission models, when simulating the immune phase and then re-entering a susceptible state, ignore the period during which an individual may retain immunity for a certain period of time. Furthermore, the decline of immunity is usually linear or exponential, which does not match the dynamic changes in the human body's actual immunity, resulting in a large error in predicting the number of people infected with infectious diseases.

Method used

The individual immune decay function simulates the decline of an individual's immunity over time after a second susceptible state. By combining the current number of susceptible individuals, the number of infected individuals, the number of immunized individuals, and related parameters, the herd immunity rate is calculated, and the number of future infectious diseases is predicted, taking into account the immunity maintenance period and the gradual decline process.

Benefits of technology

It more accurately simulates the dynamic changes in immunity during the spread of infectious diseases, providing more precise predictions of the number of infectious disease cases and guidance for vaccination strategies, while avoiding the assumption of a fixed decay rate in traditional models.

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Abstract

The application discloses an infectious disease transmission number prediction method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium, and relates to the technical field of public health. The infectious disease transmission number prediction method comprises the following steps: determining the current population immunity rate according to the number of newly added secondary susceptible persons in each day within a preset number of days in the past and a preset individual immunity decay function; determining the change amount corresponding to the current susceptible person number, the current infected person number and the current immune person number respectively according to the current susceptible person number, the current infected person number, the current immune person number, and the preset infection probability, the population contact rate, the infection duration, the secondary susceptible transfer duration and the population immunity rate, and combining the current susceptible person number, the current infected person number and the current immune person number to predict the future susceptible person number, the infected person number and the immune person number. The technical scheme can better reflect the change of individual immunity with time, and support more accurate immunity decay and infectious disease transmission simulation prediction.
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