Parameter sensitivity analysis method, device and equipment and readable storage medium

Abstract

The invention discloses a parameter sensitivity analysis method, device and equipment and a readable storage medium, and belongs to the field of oil and gas exploitation, and the method comprises the steps: selecting the value range of geological parameters according to the types of the geological parameters; the geological parameters comprise a plurality of parameters; carrying out normalization processing on the geological parameters in the value range; carrying out normalization processing on the oil and gas yield corresponding to the geological parameters in the value range; fitting the normalized geological parameters and the corresponding normalized oil and gas yields to obtain a fitting model of the geological parameters and the oil and gas yields; performing first-order differential processing on the fitting model; according to the fitting model after the first-order differential processing, obtaining a sensitivity factor of the geological parameter; and determining the sensitivity of the geological parameters to the oil and gas productivity according to the size of the sensitivity factor. According to the method, the sensitivity of the geological parameters related to the oil and gas productivity and the main control geological parameters in the oil and gas reservoirs of various types can be rapidly and accurately determined.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the field of oil and gas production, and in particular to a parameter sensitivity analysis method, device, equipment and computer-readable storage medium. Background Art

[0002] Sensitivity analysis is an uncertainty analysis method commonly used in engineering, finance and business management decision-making. Its purpose is to determine the impact of changes in one or more factors on a certain indicator and to find out the sensitive factors that affect the indicator so as to take relevant measures to achieve a certain gain effect.

[0003] At present, the main methods for evaluating the sensitivity of geological parameters related to oil and gas production capacity include single factor sensitivity analysis, multi-factor sensitivity variance analysis, and multi-factor sensitivity orthogonal experimental analysis. Single factor sensitivity analysis is an analysis method that assumes that other geological parameters affecting oil and gas production capacity remain unchanged and only examines the impact of changes in a single geological parameter on oil and gas production capacity. This method cannot calculate the parameter sensitivity when multiple geological parameters change simultaneously. Multi-factor sensitivity variance analysis determines the sensitivity by the proportion of the variance caused by each geological parameter to the total variance. Since this method requires a large amount of experimental data or samples, it is not suitable for sensitivity analysis of geological parameters related to oil and gas production capacity. Multi-factor sensitivity orthogonal experimental analysis is a mathematical and statistical method that analyzes the sensitivity of multiple factors through an "orthogonal table". This method has strict requirements on the selection of the value of each parameter and has great limitations in the sensitivity analysis of geological parameters related to oil and gas production capacity. Therefore, it is necessary to provide a parameter sensitivity analysis method to solve the problem that the sensitivity of geological parameters related to oil and gas production capacity is difficult to quickly and comprehensively evaluate. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of this application is to provide a parameter sensitivity analysis method, device, equipment and computer-readable storage medium, so as to realize rapid and relatively accurate comprehensive analysis of the sensitivity of oil and gas production capacity geological parameters.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, the present application provides a parameter sensitivity analysis method, including:

[0006] According to the type of geological parameter, a value range of the geological parameter is selected; the geological parameter includes multiple parameters;

[0007] Normalizing the geological parameters within the value range;

[0008] Normalizing the oil and gas production corresponding to the geological parameters within the value range;

[0009] Fitting the normalized geological parameters and the corresponding normalized oil and gas production to obtain a fitting model of the geological parameters and the oil and gas production;

[0010] Performing first-order differential processing on the fitting model;

[0011] Obtaining the sensitivity factor of the geological parameter according to the fitting model after first-order differential processing;

[0012] The sensitivity of the geological parameter to the oil and gas production capacity is determined according to the size of the sensitivity factor.

[0013] Optionally, fitting the normalized geological parameters and the corresponding normalized oil and gas production to obtain a fitting model of the geological parameters and the oil and gas production includes:

[0014] Based on the Logistic model, the normalized geological parameters and the corresponding normalized oil and gas production are fitted to obtain a fitting model of the geological parameters and the oil and gas production.

[0015] Optionally, the normalizing the oil and gas production corresponding to the geological parameter within the value range includes:

[0016] The oil and gas production corresponding to the geological parameters within the value range is normalized; the oil and gas production is obtained through numerical simulation of the reservoir.

[0017] Optionally, after obtaining the sensitivity factor of the geological parameter according to the fitting model after the first-order differential processing, the method further includes:

[0018] The contribution of the geological parameters to the oil and gas production capacity is determined according to the proportion of the sensitivity factors.

[0019] Optionally, obtaining the sensitivity factor of the geological parameter according to the fitting model after first-order differential processing includes:

[0020] Taking multiple points between 0 and 1 according to the principle of arithmetic progression for the normalized geological parameters, inputting them into the fitting model after first-order differential processing, and obtaining the oil and gas production corresponding to each point;

[0021] Taking an absolute value of said oil and gas production;

[0022] The oil and gas production after taking the absolute value is averaged to obtain the sensitivity factor of the geological parameter.

[0023] To achieve the above objectives, the present application also provides a parameter sensitivity analysis device, comprising:

[0024] A parameter value module selects a value range of the geological parameter according to the type of the geological parameter; the geological parameter includes multiple parameters;

[0025] A first normalization processing module, used for normalizing the geological parameters within the value range;

[0026] A second normalization processing module, used for normalizing the oil and gas production corresponding to the geological parameter within the value range;

[0027] Establishing a fitting model module for fitting the normalized geological parameters and the corresponding normalized oil and gas production to obtain a fitting model of the geological parameters and the oil and gas production;

[0028] A first-order differential processing module, used for performing first-order differential processing on the fitting model;

[0029] A sensitivity factor determination module is used to obtain the sensitivity factor of the geological parameter according to the fitting model after first-order differential processing;

[0030] The sensitivity determination module is used to determine the sensitivity of the geological parameter to the oil and gas production capacity according to the size of the sensitivity factor.

[0031] Optionally, the module for establishing a fitting model is specifically used to fit the normalized geological parameters and the corresponding normalized oil and gas production based on a Logistic model to obtain a fitting model of the geological parameters and the oil and gas production.

[0032] Optionally, the second normalization processing module is specifically used to normalize the oil and gas production corresponding to the geological parameters within the value range; the oil and gas production is obtained through numerical simulation of the reservoir.

[0033] To achieve the above purpose, the present application also provides a parameter sensitivity analysis device, including:

[0034] Memory for storing computer programs;

[0035] A processor is used to implement the steps of the parameter sensitivity analysis method as described above when executing the computer program.

[0036] To achieve the above objectives, the present application also provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the parameter sensitivity analysis method as described above are implemented.

[0037] The present application provides a parameter sensitivity analysis method, comprising: selecting a value range of the geological parameter according to the type of the geological parameter; the geological parameter includes multiple parameters; normalizing the geological parameters within the value range; normalizing the oil and gas production corresponding to the geological parameters within the value range; fitting the normalized geological parameters and the corresponding normalized oil and gas production to obtain a fitting model of the geological parameters and the oil and gas production; performing first-order differential processing on the fitting model; obtaining a sensitivity factor of the geological parameter according to the fitting model after the first-order differential processing; and determining the sensitivity of the geological parameter to the oil and gas production capacity according to the size of the sensitivity factor.

[0038] Obviously, compared with the single factor sensitivity analysis method, multi-factor sensitivity variance analysis method and multi-factor sensitivity orthogonal experimental analysis method in the prior art, the present application can calculate the parameter sensitivity when multiple geological parameters change simultaneously; it does not need to provide a large amount of experimental data or samples; there is no requirement for the selection of the value of each parameter, and it can quickly and relatively accurately determine the sensitivity of each oil and gas production capacity-related geological parameter and the main controlling geological parameter in each type of oil and gas reservoir, and has high application value in oil and gas reservoir evaluation, new well layout and well orientation selection, and oil and gas well production capacity prediction. The present application also provides a parameter sensitivity analysis device, equipment and computer-readable storage medium, which have the above-mentioned beneficial effects. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0039] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only embodiments of the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on the provided drawings without paying any creative work.

[0040] Figure 1 A flow chart of a parameter sensitivity analysis method provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0041] Figure 2 A flow chart of a parameter sensitivity analysis method provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0042] Figure 3a ) is a normalized fitting result diagram of matrix permeability and yield provided in the embodiment of the present application;

[0043] Figure 3b ) is a normalized fitting result diagram of permeability variation coefficient and production provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0044] Figure 3c ) is a normalized fitting result diagram of crack length and production provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0045] Figure 3d ) is a normalized fitting result diagram of crack width and production provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0046] Figure 3e ) is a normalized fitting result diagram of formation water salinity and production provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0047] Figure 3f ) is a normalized fitting result diagram of crude oil viscosity and output provided in the embodiment of the present application;

[0048] Figure 4 A graph of the normalized Logistic first-order differential function of geological parameters provided in the embodiment of the present application;

[0049] Figure 5 The contribution of geological parameter sensitivity provided in the embodiments of the present application;

[0050] Figure 6 A structural block diagram of a parameter sensitivity analysis device provided in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0051] In order to make the purpose, technical scheme and advantages of the embodiments of the present application clearer, the technical scheme in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present application, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0052] Oil and natural gas resources are important strategic materials for ensuring national energy security and have an irreplaceable role. In recent years, the external dependence of oil has greatly affected my country's energy security, so the increase in domestic oil and gas reserves and production has risen to a national strategic level. In particular, my country's unconventional oil and gas resources, such as tight oil and gas, shale oil and gas, are generally characterized by wide distribution and large reserves. They have become the key areas for future oil and gas exploration breakthroughs and increased reserves and production. In recent years, my country has made many breakthroughs in unconventional oil and gas exploration and development, and has preliminarily confirmed the feasibility and huge potential of large-scale development of unconventional oil and gas. However, due to the constraints of geological knowledge and engineering technology, as well as the lack of on-site production data, the current understanding of the influence of geological parameters such as matrix, fractures, and fluids on oil and gas production capacity is still unclear, which greatly restricts the accurate evaluation of oil and gas reservoirs, the scientific design of new wells, and the accurate prediction of oil and gas well production capacity. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the sensitivity of geological parameters to oil and gas production capacity and clarify the main controlling geological parameters that affect oil and gas production capacity.

[0053] In the actual oil and gas production process, there are many factors that affect oil and gas production capacity. Among them, geological parameters such as reservoir porosity, permeability, oil saturation, formation pressure, reservoir heterogeneity, etc. have a particularly significant impact on oil and gas production capacity. Therefore, analyzing the sensitivity of geological parameters related to oil and gas production capacity and exploring the main controlling geological parameters of oil and gas production capacity are of great significance for subsequent oil and gas reservoir evaluation, new well layout and well orientation selection, and oil and gas well production capacity prediction.

[0054] Oil and gas related geological parameters mainly include three categories: rock matrix parameters, reservoir fluid parameters and fracture parameters. Each category includes several specific parameters, such as porosity and permeability in matrix parameters, fluid density and fluid viscosity in fluid parameters, fracture length, fracture width, fracture height, fracture density, etc. Therefore, oil and gas geological parameters generally have the characteristics of multiple parameters, inconsistent dimensions, inconsistent value ranges, and mutual interference between parameters, which makes the rapid comprehensive evaluation of the sensitivity of production capacity geological parameters more complex.

[0055] At present, the main methods for evaluating the sensitivity of geological parameters related to oil and gas production capacity include single-factor sensitivity analysis, multi-factor sensitivity variance analysis and multi-factor sensitivity orthogonal experimental analysis.

[0056] The single factor sensitivity analysis method is an analysis method that only examines the impact of changes in a single geological parameter on oil and gas production capacity, assuming that other geological parameters that affect oil and gas production capacity remain unchanged. The analysis method is similar to the partial differential of multivariate functions in mathematics, that is, when calculating the impact of changes in a certain parameter on production capacity, it is assumed that other geological parameters do not change. This method has the advantages of accuracy and speed in evaluating the sensitivity of a single production capacity-related geological parameter, but it cannot calculate the parameter sensitivity when multiple geological parameters change simultaneously.

[0057] Multi-factor sensitivity variance analysis is a commonly used sensitivity analysis method. This method decomposes the total variance of oil and gas production capacity into the variance caused by each geological parameter and the variance caused by the coupling between geological parameters, and the sensitivity is determined by the proportion of the variance caused by each geological parameter to the total variance. Since this method is a statistical calculation method, in order to improve the accuracy of sensitivity analysis, a large amount of experimental data or samples is required, and the amount of calculation is large, so it is not suitable for sensitivity analysis of geological parameters related to oil and gas production capacity.

[0058] The orthogonal experimental analysis method of multi-factor sensitivity is a mathematical and statistical method that analyzes the sensitivity of multiple factors through an "orthogonal table". This method can more comprehensively reflect the impact of various factors or parameters on oil and gas production capacity, while reducing a certain amount of workload. However, this method has strict requirements for the selection of values ​​for each parameter, otherwise it will greatly affect the accuracy of the analysis. In the process of oil and gas geological parameter sensitivity analysis, many values ​​are actually obtained on-site, and the values ​​cannot be artificially changed or intervened. Therefore, this method has great limitations in the sensitivity analysis of geological parameters related to oil and gas production capacity. Therefore, this application provides a parameter sensitivity analysis method to achieve a fast and relatively accurate comprehensive analysis of the sensitivity of geological parameters of oil and gas production capacity.

[0059] Please refer to Figure 1 , Figure 1 A flow chart of a parameter sensitivity analysis method provided in an embodiment of the present application, the method may include:

[0060] S101: Selecting a value range of the geological parameter according to the type of the geological parameter; the geological parameter includes multiple parameters.

[0061] It should be noted that geological parameters are divided into three categories: matrix parameters, fracture parameters and fluid parameters. Due to the different types of geological parameters, the corresponding value ranges are different. Therefore, it is necessary to select values ​​according to the reasonable range of the selected geological parameters.

[0062] This embodiment does not limit the specific types of matrix parameters, for example, it may include matrix porosity, matrix permeability, matrix heterogeneity or matrix wettability. It should be noted that the geological parameter corresponding to matrix heterogeneity is the permeability variation coefficient. This embodiment does not limit the specific types of fracture parameters, for example, it may include fracture length, fracture width, fracture height, fracture inclination or fracture density. It should be noted that fracture density is defined as the number of fractures contained in a unit volume of the formation, and the unit is fracture / m 3 The present embodiment does not limit the specific type of fluid parameters, which may include, for example, fluid saturation, fluid viscosity, fluid density, or formation water salinity, etc. The present embodiment does not limit the specific type of fluid, which may be, for example, oil, gas, or water.

[0063] S102: normalizing the geological parameters within the value range.

[0064] It should be noted that since the value ranges and dimensions of the various geological parameters are inconsistent, each parameter is normalized within the value range. The processing formula is as follows:

[0065]

[0066] Where V represents the value of geological parameters, Vmin Represents the minimum value of the geological parameter, V max Represents the maximum value of the geological parameter, V 归一 Represents the normalized value of geological parameters.

[0067] S103: Normalizing the oil and gas production corresponding to the geological parameters within the value range.

[0068] It should be noted that all oil and gas production corresponding to different geological parameters are uniformly normalized, and the processing formula and method are the same as step 2, where V represents all oil and gas production values, V min Represents the minimum value of all oil and gas production values, V max Represents the maximum value of all oil and gas production values, V 归一 Represents the normalized value of oil and gas production. This embodiment does not limit the specific source of oil and gas production corresponding to different geological parameters. For example, oil and gas production can be actual oil well production data, or oil and gas production can be obtained through reservoir numerical simulation. It should be noted that the unit of crude oil production is tons, and the unit of natural gas production is cubic meters. Natural gas needs to be equivalently converted to crude oil production during calculation, and the conversion factor is 1000 cubic meters / ton.

[0069] S104: Fitting the normalized geological parameters and the corresponding normalized oil and gas production to obtain a fitting model of the geological parameters and the oil and gas production.

[0070] This embodiment does not limit the specific method of fitting the normalized geological parameters and the corresponding normalized oil and gas production. The corresponding fitting method can be determined according to the selected fitting model. For example, the normalized geological parameters and the corresponding normalized oil and gas production can be fitted based on the Logistic model to obtain a fitting model of geological parameters and oil and gas production.

[0071] It should be noted that the formula of the Logistic model is as follows:

[0072]

[0073] Among them, x represents the normalized geological parameter value, y represents the normalized oil and gas production, and A1, A2, x0, and p are all fitting parameters.

[0074] Perform first-order differential processing on the formula, and the formula after processing is as follows:

[0075]

[0076] Among them, x represents the normalized value of the geological parameter, y′ represents the sensitivity factor of the geological parameter, and A1, A2, x0, and p are all fitting parameters.

[0077] S105: Perform first-order differential processing on the fitting model.

[0078] S106: Obtain the sensitivity factor of the geological parameter according to the fitting model after the first-order differential processing.

[0079] This embodiment does not limit the specific method of obtaining the sensitivity factor of the geological parameter, and the specific method can be determined according to actual needs. For example, the normalized geological parameter can be taken as multiple points between 0 and 1 according to the principle of arithmetic progression, and the fitting model after first-order differential processing can be input to obtain the oil and gas production corresponding to each point; the absolute value of the oil and gas production is taken; the average of the oil and gas production after taking the absolute value is taken to obtain the sensitivity factor of the geological parameter.

[0080] S107: Determine the sensitivity of geological parameters to oil and gas production capacity based on the size of the sensitivity factor.

[0081] Furthermore, this embodiment can determine the contribution of geological parameters to oil and gas production capacity according to the proportion of sensitivity factors.

[0082] Furthermore, this embodiment can determine the sensitivity or contribution of the three major parameters to oil and gas production capacity by taking the average values ​​of the geological parameter sensitivity factors of the matrix parameters, fracture parameters and fluid parameters respectively, according to the size or proportion of the average values.

[0083] Based on the above embodiments, compared with the single-factor sensitivity analysis method, the multi-factor sensitivity variance analysis method and the multi-factor sensitivity orthogonal experimental analysis method in the prior art, the present application can calculate the parameter sensitivity when multiple geological parameters change simultaneously; there is no need to provide a large amount of experimental data or samples; there is no requirement for the numerical selection of each parameter, and the sensitivity and main controlling geological parameters of each oil and gas production capacity-related geological parameter in each type of oil and gas reservoir can be determined quickly and relatively accurately, and it has high application value in oil and gas reservoir evaluation, selection of new well layout and oil and gas well production capacity prediction, etc.

[0084] The following is a specific example to illustrate the above parameter sensitivity analysis process. Please refer to Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 and Figure 5 , Figure 2 FIG. 3 is a flow chart of a parameter sensitivity analysis method provided in an embodiment of the present application; FIG. 4 is a graph of normalized fitting results of geological parameters and production provided in an embodiment of the present application; Figure 4 A graph of the normalized Logistic first-order differential function of geological parameters provided in the embodiment of the present application; Figure 5The sensitivity contribution of geological parameters provided in the embodiment of the present application is that the oil and gas reservoir type selected in this embodiment is a shale oil reservoir, and the development method is a single well pressure followed by well blocking, and then pressure controlled production. The wellhead pressure is controlled to 25MPa-15MPa-5MPa, and the production time at each pressure is 365 days. The specific process is as follows:

[0085] 1. Select geological parameters, where matrix parameters include matrix permeability and permeability variation coefficient, fracture parameters include fracture length and fracture width, and fluid parameters include formation water salinity and crude oil viscosity. The value ranges of each parameter are shown in Table 1.

[0086] Table 1 Geological parameters and value ranges

[0087]

[0088] 2. Since the value ranges and dimensions of the geological parameters are inconsistent, each parameter is normalized within the value range. The processing formula is as follows:

[0089]

[0090] Where V represents the value of geological parameters, V min Represents the minimum value of the geological parameter, V max Represents the maximum value of the geological parameter, V 归一 Represents the normalized value of geological parameters. The normalized values ​​of various geological parameters are shown in Table 2.

[0091] Table 2 Normalized values ​​of geological parameters

[0092] Geological parameter name True value Normalized value Matrix permeability 0.01 / 0.1 / 0.5 / 1.0 / 10.0 0 / 0.009 / 0.049 / 0.099 / 1 Permeability coefficient of variation 0 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 0 / 0.25 / 0.50 / 0.75 / 1 Crack length 150 / 200 / 250 / 300 / 350 0 / 0.25 / 0.50 / 0.75 / 1 Crack width 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 0 / 0.2 / 0.4 / 0.6 / 0.8 / 1 Formation water mineralization <![CDATA[3×10 4 / 5×10 4 / 10×10 4 / 15×10 4 / 20×10 4 ]]> 0 / 0.118 / 0.412 / 0.706 / 1 Crude oil viscosity 2 / 5 / 10 / 20 / 30 / 50 0 / 0.063 / 0.167 / 0.375 / 0.583 / 1

[0093] 3. A single-stage matrix-fracture geological model of horizontal wells in shale reservoirs was established on the open source reservoir numerical simulator MATLAB Reservoir Simulation Toolbox (MRST). Through reservoir numerical simulation technology, the corresponding oil and gas production data under different geological parameters were explored respectively, and all oil and gas production were uniformly normalized. The processing formula and method were the same as those in the second step, where V represents all oil and gas production values, V min Represents the minimum value of all oil and gas production values, V max Represents the maximum value of all oil and gas production values, V 归一 It represents the normalized value of oil and gas production. For oil and gas production and normalized value, see Table 3.

[0094] Table 3. Normalized values ​​of geological parameters corresponding to oil and gas production

[0095]

[0096] 4. Fit the normalized geological parameters and corresponding oil and gas production in Table 2 and Table 3. The fitting model uses the Logistic model, and the formula is as follows:

[0097]

[0098] Among them, x represents the normalized geological parameter value, y represents the normalized oil and gas production, and A1, A2, x0, and p are all fitting parameters. The fitting results are shown in Figure 3, where a) represents the normalized fitting result diagram of matrix permeability and production; b) represents the normalized fitting result diagram of permeability variation coefficient and production; c) represents the normalized fitting result diagram of fracture length and production; d) represents the normalized fitting result diagram of fracture width and production; e) represents the normalized fitting result diagram of formation water salinity and production; f) represents the normalized fitting result diagram of crude oil viscosity and production.

[0099] Specifically, the matrix permeability fitting formula is:

[0100]

[0101] The fitting formula of permeability variation coefficient is:

[0102]

[0103] The fitting formula of crack length is:

[0104]

[0105] The fitting formula of crack width is:

[0106]

[0107] The fitting formula of formation water mineralization is:

[0108]

[0109] The crude oil viscosity fitting formula is:

[0110]

[0111] 5. Substitute A1, A2, x0, and p obtained in the fourth step into the model formula, and then perform first-order differential processing on the formula. The processed formula is as follows:

[0112]

[0113] Among them, x represents the normalized value of the geological parameter, y′ represents the sensitivity factor of the geological parameter, and A1, A2, x0, and p are all fitting parameters.

[0114] Specifically, the first-order differential formula of matrix permeability is:

[0115]

[0116] The first-order differential formula of the permeability variation coefficient is:

[0117]

[0118] The first-order differential formula of crack length is:

[0119]

[0120] The first-order differential formula of crack width is:

[0121]

[0122] The first-order differential formula of formation water mineralization is:

[0123]

[0124] The first-order differential formula of crude oil viscosity is:

[0125]

[0126] 6. Take 51 points between 0 and 1 for each normalized geological parameter in increments of 0.02, and substitute them into the first-order differential formula obtained in the fifth step to obtain the corresponding y′, as follows: Figure 4 As shown. The horizontal axis represents the normalized geological parameter variables, the left vertical axis represents the normalized production sensitivity factors corresponding to the matrix permeability, permeability variation coefficient, fracture length and fracture width, and the right vertical axis represents the normalized production sensitivity factors corresponding to the formation water salinity and crude oil viscosity.

[0127] Then, the absolute values ​​of all y′ values ​​are taken, and then the average of the y′ after taking the absolute values ​​is taken to obtain the sensitivity factors of different geological parameters, see Table 4.

[0128] Table 4 Sensitivity factor values ​​for different geological parameters

[0129]

[0130]

[0131] 7. Sort the sensitivity factors of different geological parameters obtained in step 6 to determine the sensitivity or contribution of different geological parameters to oil and gas production capacity. According to the data in Table 4, the sensitivity of geological parameters is ranked from large to small as crude oil viscosity, formation water salinity, fracture length, permeability variation coefficient, matrix permeability, and fracture width. After further normalizing the sensitivity of each geological parameter, the sensitivity contribution of each parameter can be obtained as follows: Figure 5 As shown in the figure. It can be seen from the figure that crude oil viscosity has the greatest impact on oil and gas production, with a sensitivity contribution of nearly 60%, while fracture width has the least impact on displacement production, with a sensitivity contribution of only 0.54%. By classifying different geological parameters and further averaging them, the overall geological parameter sensitivity is ranked from high to low as fluid parameters, fracture parameters, and matrix parameters, among which fluid parameters contribute 84.84% to oil and gas production, fracture parameters contribute 11.29%, and matrix parameters contribute 3.87%.

[0132] A parameter sensitivity analysis device, equipment and computer-readable storage medium provided in an embodiment of the present application are introduced below. The parameter sensitivity analysis device, equipment and computer-readable storage medium described below can be referenced to each other with the parameter sensitivity analysis method described above.

[0133] Please refer to Figure 6 , Figure 6 A structural block diagram of a parameter sensitivity analysis device provided in an embodiment of the present application, the device may include:

[0134] The parameter value module 100 selects the value range of the geological parameter according to the type of the geological parameter; the geological parameter includes multiple parameters;

[0135] A first normalization processing module 200 is used to perform normalization processing on geological parameters within a value range;

[0136] The second normalization processing module 300 is used to perform normalization processing on the oil and gas production corresponding to the geological parameters within the value range;

[0137] Establishing a fitting model module 400 for fitting the normalized geological parameters and the corresponding normalized oil and gas production to obtain a fitting model of the geological parameters and the oil and gas production;

[0138] A first-order differential processing module 500 is used to perform first-order differential processing on the fitting model;

[0139] The sensitivity factor determination module 600 is used to obtain the sensitivity factor of the geological parameter according to the fitting model after the first-order differential processing;

[0140] The sensitivity determination module 700 is used to determine the sensitivity of the geological parameters to the oil and gas production capacity according to the size of the sensitivity factor.

[0141] Based on the above embodiments, compared with the single-factor sensitivity analysis method, the multi-factor sensitivity variance analysis method and the multi-factor sensitivity orthogonal experimental analysis method in the prior art, the present application can calculate the parameter sensitivity when multiple geological parameters change simultaneously; there is no need to provide a large amount of experimental data or samples; there is no requirement for the numerical selection of each parameter, and the sensitivity and main controlling geological parameters of each oil and gas production capacity-related geological parameter in each type of oil and gas reservoir can be determined quickly and relatively accurately, and it has high application value in oil and gas reservoir evaluation, selection of new well layout and oil and gas well production capacity prediction, etc.

[0142] Based on the above embodiment, a fitting model module 400 is established, which is specifically used to fit the normalized geological parameters and the corresponding normalized oil and gas production based on the Logistic model to obtain a fitting model of the geological parameters and the oil and gas production.

[0143] Based on the above embodiments, the second normalization processing module 300 is specifically used to perform normalization processing on the oil and gas production corresponding to the geological parameters within the value range; the oil and gas production is obtained through numerical simulation of the oil reservoir.

[0144] Based on the above embodiments, the parameter sensitivity analysis device further includes:

[0145] The contribution determination module 800 is used to determine the contribution of geological parameters to oil and gas production capacity according to the proportion of sensitivity factors.

[0146] Based on the above embodiments, the sensitivity factor determination module 600 includes:

[0147] The data acquisition unit is used to take multiple points between 0 and 1 according to the principle of arithmetic progression for the normalized geological parameters, input them into the fitting model after first-order differential processing, and obtain the oil and gas production corresponding to each point;

[0148] A first data processing unit is used to obtain an absolute value of oil and gas production;

[0149] The second data processing unit is used to average the oil and gas production after taking the absolute value to obtain the sensitivity factor of the geological parameter.

[0150] Based on the above embodiments, the present application also provides a parameter sensitivity analysis device, including: a memory and a processor, wherein the memory is used to store a computer program; the processor is used to implement the steps of the parameter sensitivity analysis method described in the above embodiments when executing the computer program. Of course, the parameter sensitivity analysis device may also include various necessary network interfaces, power supplies, and other components.

[0151] The present application also provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the parameter sensitivity analysis method described in the above embodiments are implemented. The storage medium may include: a USB flash drive, a mobile hard disk, a read-only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a magnetic disk or an optical disk, and other media that can store program codes.

[0152] Specific examples are used herein to illustrate the principles and implementation methods of the present application, and the embodiments are in a progressive relationship. Each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments, and the same or similar parts between the embodiments can be referred to each other. For the devices disclosed in the embodiments, please refer to the corresponding method section description. The description of the above embodiments is only used to help understand the method of the present application and its core idea. For ordinary technicians in the technical field, without departing from the principles of the present application, several improvements and modifications can be made to the present application, and these improvements and modifications also fall within the scope of protection of the claims of the present application.

[0153] It should also be noted that, in this specification, relational terms such as first and second, etc. are only used to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Moreover, the terms "comprise", "include" or any other variants thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that the process, method, article or equipment including a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also includes other elements not explicitly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, article or equipment. In the absence of further restrictions, the elements defined by the sentence "comprise a ..." do not exclude the presence of other identical elements in the process, method, article or equipment including the elements.

Claims

1. A parameter sensitivity analysis method, characterized in that: include: According to the type of geological parameter, a value range of the geological parameter is selected; the geological parameter includes multiple parameters; Normalizing the geological parameters within the value range; Normalizing the oil and gas production corresponding to the geological parameters within the value range; Fitting the normalized geological parameters and the corresponding normalized oil and gas production to obtain a fitting model of the geological parameters and the oil and gas production; Performing first-order differential processing on the fitting model; Obtaining the sensitivity factor of the geological parameter according to the fitting model after first-order differential processing; The sensitivity of the geological parameter to the oil and gas production capacity is determined according to the size of the sensitivity factor.

2. The parameter sensitivity analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of fitting the normalized geological parameters and the corresponding normalized oil and gas production to obtain a fitting model of the geological parameters and the oil and gas production includes: Based on the Logistic model, the normalized geological parameters and the corresponding normalized oil and gas production are fitted to obtain a fitting model of the geological parameters and the oil and gas production.

3. The parameter sensitivity analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The normalizing of the oil and gas production corresponding to the geological parameter within the value range includes: The oil and gas production corresponding to the geological parameters within the value range is normalized; the oil and gas production is obtained through numerical simulation of the reservoir.

4. The parameter sensitivity analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that: After obtaining the sensitivity factor of the geological parameter according to the fitting model after the first-order differential processing, the method further includes: The contribution of the geological parameters to the oil and gas production capacity is determined according to the proportion of the sensitivity factors.

5. The parameter sensitivity analysis method according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that: The sensitivity factor of the geological parameter is obtained according to the fitting model after the first-order differential processing, including: Taking multiple points between 0 and 1 according to the principle of arithmetic progression for the normalized geological parameters, inputting them into the fitting model after first-order differential processing, and obtaining the oil and gas production corresponding to each point; Taking an absolute value of said oil and gas production; The oil and gas production after taking the absolute value is averaged to obtain the sensitivity factor of the geological parameter.

6. A parameter sensitivity analysis device, characterized in that: include: A parameter value module selects a value range of the geological parameter according to the type of the geological parameter; the geological parameter includes multiple parameters; A first normalization processing module, used for normalizing the geological parameters within the value range; A second normalization processing module, used for normalizing the oil and gas production corresponding to the geological parameter within the value range; Establishing a fitting model module for fitting the normalized geological parameters and the corresponding normalized oil and gas production to obtain a fitting model of the geological parameters and the oil and gas production; A first-order differential processing module, used for performing first-order differential processing on the fitting model; A sensitivity factor determination module is used to obtain the sensitivity factor of the geological parameter according to the fitting model after first-order differential processing; The sensitivity determination module is used to determine the sensitivity of the geological parameter to the oil and gas production capacity according to the size of the sensitivity factor.

7. The parameter sensitivity analysis device according to claim 6, characterized in that: The module for establishing a fitting model is specifically used to fit the normalized geological parameters and the corresponding normalized oil and gas production based on a Logistic model to obtain a fitting model of the geological parameters and the oil and gas production.

8. The parameter sensitivity analysis device according to claim 6, characterized in that: The second normalization processing module is specifically used to perform normalization processing on the oil and gas production corresponding to the geological parameters within the value range; the oil and gas production is obtained through numerical simulation of the oil reservoir.

9. A parameter sensitivity analysis device, characterized in that: include: Memory for storing computer programs; A processor, configured to implement the steps of the parameter sensitivity analysis method according to any one of claims 1 to 5 when executing the computer program.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the parameter sensitivity analysis method according to any one of claims 1 to 5 are implemented.

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