Electric power supply and demand influence factor analysis method based on interpretation structure modeling

Abstract

The invention discloses a power supply and demand influence factor analysis method based on interpretation structure modeling, and relates to the technical field of influence factor analysis, and the method comprises the following steps: collecting and sorting elements influencing a power supply and demand system to form an element set, and building a power supply and demand knowledge model based on the element set; according to the power supply and demand knowledge model, judging the relationship between every two elements in the element set, and constructing an adjacent matrix; according to the adjacent matrix, obtaining a reachable matrix based on a Boolean algebraic operation rule; performing hierarchical division by using a standard hierarchical division method, improving the reachable matrix, and establishing a hierarchical model on the basis of the improved reachable matrix; a structure of the hierarchical hierarchy model is represented based on the hierarchy graph and a directed connection graph is drawn. According to the method, the relationship among various factors influencing power supply and demand is deeply analyzed through an interpretation structure modeling method, and the structure hierarchical relationship of the power supply and demand influencing factors can be clarified, so that beneficial guidance is provided for analysis and prediction of power supply and demand.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power supply and demand analysis, and more specifically, to a method for analyzing power supply and demand influencing factors based on explanatory structural modeling. Background Art

[0002] With the rapid development of the economy and society and the continuous expansion of the power system, the factors affecting the balance of power supply and demand are becoming more complex and diverse. At present, the focus of research is mainly on the improvement and innovation of forecasting methods, and there is relatively little research on the deep-seated reasons behind the changes in power demand. However, a comprehensive and correct analysis of the various factors affecting power supply and demand is the prerequisite for accurate quantitative forecasting of power supply and demand. In order to more accurately analyze the changing trends of power supply and demand and identify the relationships between various factors, the explanatory structural modeling method has gradually become an effective analysis tool. By constructing the hierarchical relationship between factors, the explanatory structural modeling method can effectively reveal the hierarchical structure of each factor in the impact of supply and demand, and provide a theoretical basis for power demand forecasting and supply and demand early warning. The explanatory structural modeling method can help decision makers clarify the mechanism of deep, middle and surface factors through the establishment of adjacency matrix and reachability matrix. For example, how deep factors such as economic policy adjustments and energy price fluctuations affect power supply and demand through changes in residential power consumption patterns or industrial power consumption structures. Such a method can improve the predictability of supply and demand relationships, help further optimize the resource allocation and operation strategy of the power system, and ensure the safety and economic operation of the power grid.

[0003] The above disclosed technical solutions have at least the following technical problems: At present, the research on factors affecting the balance of power supply and demand focuses on the improvement and innovation of prediction methods, while the research on the deep-seated reasons behind the changes in power demand is relatively small. In this regard, the relevant research is lacking and has not been able to dig deep enough into the deep-seated reasons affecting the changes in power supply and demand, which is not conducive to more accurately grasping the overall situation of power supply and demand. In view of the above problems, the present invention proposes a solution. Summary of the invention

[0004] In order to overcome the above-mentioned defects of the prior art, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for analyzing factors affecting power supply and demand based on explanatory structural modeling. By establishing a model of factors affecting power supply and demand, the structural hierarchical relationship of factors affecting power supply and demand is explored to solve the problems raised in the above-mentioned background technology.

[0005] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: A method for analyzing factors affecting power supply and demand based on explanatory structural modeling includes the following steps: collecting and organizing factors affecting the power supply and demand system to form a factor set, and establishing a power supply and demand knowledge model based on the factor set; judging whether there is a binary relationship between every two factors in the factor set according to the power supply and demand knowledge model, and constructing an adjacency matrix; calculating a reachable matrix based on the constructed adjacency matrix based on Boolean algebra operation rules; performing hierarchical division using a standard hierarchical division method, improving the reachable matrix, and establishing a recursive hierarchical model based on the improved reachable matrix; representing the structure of the recursive hierarchical model based on a hierarchical structure diagram and drawing a directed connection diagram.

[0006] In a preferred embodiment, the collection and organization of factors affecting the power supply and demand system constitutes an element set, and a power supply and demand knowledge model is established based on the element set, specifically: collecting various components related to the power supply and demand system, and classifying and organizing each component into an element set; judging the binary relationship between the elements of the power supply and demand system, and systematically integrating the mutual influence relationship between the factors; summarizing the mutual influence relationship table of the factors affecting power supply and demand through the binary relationship between the elements of the power supply and demand system; and constructing the power supply and demand knowledge model based on the mutual influence relationship table of the factors affecting power supply and demand.

[0007] In a preferred embodiment, the binary relationship between the elements of the power supply and demand system is determined by systematically integrating the mutual influence relationship between the various factors, specifically: each element in the system element set is associated with other (n-1) elements to determine whether there is a direct binary relationship between the elements.

[0008] In a preferred embodiment, the constructed adjacency matrix is ​​used to calculate a reachable matrix based on the Boolean algebra operation rules, specifically: according to the Boolean algebra operation rules, the adjacency matrix is ​​added to the unit matrix, and the added matrix is ​​multiplied by itself. When the result of the self-multiplication no longer changes, the reachable matrix is ​​obtained.

[0009] In a preferred embodiment, the hierarchical partitioning method is used to perform hierarchical partitioning, the reachable matrix is ​​improved, and a hierarchical model is established based on the improved reachable matrix. Specifically, the hierarchical partitioning method is used to perform hierarchical partitioning to obtain the reachable sets of all elements. and antecedent set ; According to the reachable set and the predecessor set, we can get Collection, if If the elements of the set are the same as those of the reachable set, the elements in the reachable set are taken as the highest level of all elements, and the elements that meet the conditions are placed at the same level; the highest level in the recursive hierarchical model is excluded from the reachable matrix, and the highest level of the remaining elements is calculated in the same way to obtain different recursive hierarchical levels and different levels of each element in the system; according to the level of each element, the first-level elements are placed at the bottom and the second-level elements are placed on the first-level elements, until all the elements are placed at the corresponding levels to obtain an improved reachable matrix; based on the improved reachable matrix, a recursive hierarchical model is established.

[0010] In a preferred embodiment, the structure of the recursive hierarchical model is represented based on the hierarchical diagram and a directed connection diagram is drawn, specifically: S51 performs hierarchical division of the hierarchical diagram according to the recursive hierarchical model; S52 finds the node pairs corresponding to the "1" elements in the two-level relationship block matrix according to the improved reachable matrix, and draws directed arcs between the node pairs from the lower level to the upper level to represent the reachable relationship; S53 For directed arcs across levels, determine whether the directed arcs can be deduced based on the transfer of existing directed arcs. If so, they do not need to be drawn. If not, draw a directed connection diagram according to step S52.

[0011] Technical effects and advantages of the power supply and demand influencing factors analysis method based on explanatory structural modeling of the present invention: 1. The present invention deeply analyzes various factors affecting the supply and demand of electricity, uses knowledge models and structural models to analyze the relationship between various factors, establishes a model of factors affecting the supply and demand of electricity, and explores the structural hierarchical relationship of factors affecting the supply and demand of electricity; uses a modeling method to obtain a structured model with clear levels and context, divides the various levels of reasons affecting the changes in the supply and demand of electricity, and provides useful guidance for early warning and analysis of the supply and demand of electricity.

[0012] 2. The present invention transforms the knowledge model into a structural model, which transforms the uncertain relationship of knowledge in power supply and demand analysis (mainly manifested as randomness and fuzziness) into an intuitive relationship diagram with a good structure. The hierarchical structure diagram of the power supply and demand influencing factor model can be used to analyze the factors affecting the changes in power supply and demand from a qualitative perspective, providing a good foundation for the subsequent accurate quantitative prediction of power supply and demand. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0013] Figure 1 It is a structural schematic diagram of a method for analyzing factors affecting power supply and demand based on explanatory structural modeling of the present invention.

[0014] Figure 2 It is the knowledge model of the factors affecting power supply and demand of the present invention.

[0015] Figure 3 It is a hierarchical structure diagram of the power supply and demand influencing factor model of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0016] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0017] Embodiment 1, Figure 1 The present invention provides a method for analyzing factors affecting power supply and demand based on explanatory structural modeling, comprising the following steps: Collect and organize the elements that affect the power supply and demand system to form an element set, and establish a power supply and demand knowledge model based on the element set; According to the established power supply and demand knowledge model, determine whether there is a binary relationship between every two elements in the element set and construct an adjacency matrix; According to the constructed adjacency matrix, the reachable matrix is ​​calculated based on Boolean algebra operation rules; The standard hierarchical partitioning method is used to perform hierarchical partitioning, the reachability matrix is ​​improved, and a hierarchical model is established based on the improved reachability matrix. Based on the hierarchical diagram, the structure of the hierarchical model is represented and the directed connection diagram is drawn.

[0018] S1, collect and organize the elements that affect the power supply and demand system to form an element set, and establish a power supply and demand knowledge model based on the element set; The collection and organization of factors affecting the power supply and demand system constitutes a factor set, and a power supply and demand knowledge model is established based on the factor set, specifically: Collect various components related to the power supply and demand system, and classify and organize the components into component sets; Determine the binary relationship between the elements of the power supply and demand system, and systematically integrate the mutual influence between the factors; Through the binary relationship between the elements of the power supply and demand system, summarize the mutual influence relationship table of the factors affecting power supply and demand; The power supply and demand knowledge model is constructed based on the mutual influence relationship table of factors affecting power supply and demand.

[0019] The binary relationship between the elements of the power supply and demand system is judged, and the mutual influence relationship between the factors is systematically integrated, specifically: Associate each element in the system element set with the other (n-1) elements to determine whether there is a direct binary relationship between the elements.

[0020] The direct binary relationship can be expressed as:

[0021] in, is an element in the adjacency matrix A, express and There is a direct relationship, express and There is no direct relationship.

[0022] The system element set S consists of a set of n elements, denoted as:

[0023] in, and They represent the i-th and j-th elements in the system respectively, and n is the number of elements.

[0024] The change of power supply and demand is not limited to the influence of internal factors of the power system, but is actually affected by many factors such as the social and economic environment, natural environment, regulatory environment, technological progress, population growth, etc. Studying the change of power supply and demand is a complex system engineering problem. The knowledge model of the power supply and demand influencing factors of the present invention mainly considers the following factors (factors can be added or deleted according to changes), as shown in Table 1: Table of power supply and demand influencing factors: Table 1

[0025] By integrating the natural, social and technological factors that affect power supply and demand, the relationship between the various influencing factors is qualitatively analyzed, providing a basis for multi-level in-depth analysis of the factors affecting power supply and demand. The knowledge model of the factors affecting power supply and demand is as follows: Figure 2 As shown; Through the obtained binary relationship between system elements, the mutual influence relationship table of the factors affecting power supply and demand is summarized as shown in Table 2; Table 2

[0026] S2, based on the power supply and demand knowledge model, determines whether there is a binary relationship between every two elements in the element set and constructs an adjacency matrix; According to the given set of elements, an adjacency matrix is ​​established to represent the relationship between each influencing element.

[0027] The adjacency matrix is ​​specifically:

[0028] The rows represent the influencing factors, the columns represent the affected factors, 1 indicates that there is a direct impact between two factors, and 0 indicates that there is no direct impact.

[0029] S3, according to the constructed adjacency matrix, the reachable matrix is ​​calculated based on the Boolean algebra operation rules; The reachability matrix is ​​used to represent the relationships that can be reached through direct or indirect paths. It is an n-order square matrix that describes the degree to which nodes in a directed graph can be reached after a certain length of path. Its elements are 0 or 1, indicating whether there is a path between vertices. If there is a path from vertex i to vertex j, the corresponding element in the matrix is ​​1; otherwise, it is 0.

[0030] The reachable matrix is ​​calculated based on the constructed adjacency matrix and Boolean algebraic operation rules, which is specifically: According to the Boolean algebra operation rules, the adjacency matrix is ​​added to the unit matrix, and the added matrix is ​​multiplied by itself. When the result of the self-multiplication no longer changes, the reachable matrix is ​​obtained.

[0031]

[0032]

[0033] Among them, A is the adjacency matrix, I is the identity matrix, M is the reachability matrix, and m is the number of times it is multiplied by itself.

[0034] The reachable matrix is ​​specifically:

[0035] If there is a direct influence relationship between two elements, it is marked as 1. If it can be reached indirectly through other elements, it is also marked as 1, otherwise it is marked as 0.

[0036] S4, using the standard hierarchical partitioning method to perform hierarchical partitioning, improving the reachability matrix, and establishing a hierarchical model based on the improved reachability matrix; The method of using the standard hierarchical division method to perform hierarchical division, improve the reachability matrix, and establish a hierarchical model based on the improved reachability matrix, specifically: According to the standard hierarchical division method, the reachable set of all elements is obtained by hierarchical division. and antecedent set ; According to the reachable set and the predecessor set, we can get Collection, if If the elements of the set and the reachable set are the same, the elements in the reachable set are taken as the highest level among all elements, and the elements that meet the conditions are placed at the same level; The highest level in the hierarchical model is excluded from the reachable matrix, and the highest level of the remaining elements is obtained in the same way, so as to obtain different hierarchical levels and different levels of each element in the system; According to the level of each element, the first-level element is placed at the bottom, and the second-level element is placed on the first-level element, until all the elements are placed at the corresponding level, and the improved reachable matrix is ​​obtained; Based on the improved reachability matrix, a recursive hierarchical model is established.

[0037] In this embodiment, the reachable set and the precedent set are specifically: : The set of all elements that can be reached from is called the reachable set.

[0038] : The set of all possible elements is called the predecessor set.

[0039] The improved reachable matrix is ​​specifically:

[0040] The recursive hierarchical model is specifically:

[0041] Where r represents the number of levels in the hierarchical model.

[0042] S5, based on the hierarchical graph, represents the structure of the hierarchical model and draws a directed connection graph.

[0043] The hierarchical structure diagram of the power supply and demand influencing factor model of the elements considered in the present invention is as follows Figure 3 As shown; The structure of the hierarchical model is represented based on the hierarchical structure diagram and a directed connection diagram is drawn, specifically: S51 divides the hierarchical structure diagram into hierarchical levels according to the hierarchical model; S52 finds the node pairs corresponding to the "1" elements in the two-level relationship block matrix according to the improved reachability matrix, and draws directed arcs between the node pairs from the lower level to the upper level to represent the reachability relationship; S53 determines, for directed arcs across levels, whether the directed arcs can be derived based on the transfer of existing directed arcs. If so, it is not necessary to draw them. If not, a directed connection graph is drawn according to step S52.

[0044] The above formulas are all dimensionless and numerical calculations. The formula is a formula for the most recent real situation obtained by collecting a large amount of data and performing software simulation. The preset parameters in the formula are set by technicians in this field according to actual conditions.

[0045] The above embodiments may be implemented in whole or in part by software, hardware, firmware or any other combination. When implemented by software, the above embodiments may be implemented in whole or in part in the form of a computer program product.

[0046] Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the modules and algorithm steps of each example described in conjunction with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented in electronic hardware, or a combination of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether these functions are performed in hardware or software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Professional and technical personnel can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered to be beyond the scope of this application.

[0047] In addition, each functional module in each embodiment of the present application may be integrated into one processing module, or each module may exist physically separately, or two or more modules may be integrated into one module.

[0048] The above is only a specific implementation of the present application, but the protection scope of the present application is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art who is familiar with the present technical field can easily think of changes or substitutions within the technical scope disclosed in the present application, which should be included in the protection scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application should be based on the protection scope of the claims.

[0049] Finally: The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing factors affecting power supply and demand based on explanatory structural modeling, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Collect and organize the elements that affect the power supply and demand system to form an element set, and establish a power supply and demand knowledge model based on the element set; According to the knowledge model of power supply and demand, it is determined whether there is a binary relationship between every two elements in the element set, and an adjacency matrix is ​​constructed; According to the constructed adjacency matrix, the reachable matrix is ​​calculated based on Boolean algebra operation rules; The standard hierarchical partitioning method is used to perform hierarchical partitioning, the reachability matrix is ​​improved, and a hierarchical model is established based on the improved reachability matrix. Based on the hierarchical diagram, the structure of the hierarchical model is represented and the directed connection diagram is drawn.

2. The method for analyzing factors affecting power supply and demand based on explanatory structural modeling according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The collection and organization of factors affecting the power supply and demand system constitutes a factor set, and a power supply and demand knowledge model is established based on the factor set, specifically: Collect various components related to the power supply and demand system, and classify and organize the components into component sets; Determine the binary relationship between the elements of the power supply and demand system, and systematically integrate the mutual influence between the factors; Through the binary relationship between the elements of the power supply and demand system, summarize the mutual influence relationship table of the factors affecting power supply and demand; The power supply and demand knowledge model is constructed based on the mutual influence relationship table of factors affecting power supply and demand.

3. The method for analyzing factors affecting power supply and demand based on explanatory structural modeling according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The binary relationship between the elements of the power supply and demand system is judged, and the mutual influence relationship between the factors is systematically integrated, specifically: Associate each element in the system element set with the other n-1 elements to determine whether there is a direct binary relationship between the elements.

4. The method for analyzing factors affecting power supply and demand based on explanatory structural modeling according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The reachable matrix is ​​calculated based on the constructed adjacency matrix and Boolean algebraic operation rules, which is specifically: According to the Boolean algebra operation rules, the adjacency matrix is ​​added to the unit matrix, and the added matrix is ​​multiplied by itself. When the result of the self-multiplication no longer changes, the reachable matrix is ​​obtained.

5. The method for analyzing factors affecting power supply and demand based on explanatory structural modeling according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The method of using the standard hierarchical division method to perform hierarchical division, improve the reachability matrix, and establish a hierarchical model based on the improved reachability matrix, specifically: According to the standard hierarchical division method, the reachable set of all elements is obtained by hierarchical division. and antecedent set ; According to the reachable set and the predecessor set, we can get Collection, if If the elements of the set and the reachable set are the same, the elements in the reachable set are taken as the highest level among all elements, and the elements that meet the conditions are placed at the same level; The highest level in the hierarchical model is excluded from the reachable matrix, and the highest level of the remaining elements is obtained in the same way, so as to obtain different hierarchical levels and different levels of each element in the system; According to the level of each element, the first-level element is placed at the bottom, and the second-level element is placed on the first-level element, until all the elements are placed at the corresponding level, and the improved reachable matrix is ​​obtained; Based on the improved reachability matrix, a recursive hierarchical model is established.

6. The method for analyzing factors affecting power supply and demand based on explanatory structural modeling according to claim 5 is characterized in that: The structure of the hierarchical model is represented based on the hierarchical structure diagram and a directed connection diagram is drawn, specifically: S51 divides the hierarchical structure diagram into hierarchical levels according to the hierarchical model; S52 finds the node pairs corresponding to the "1" elements in the two-level relationship block matrix according to the improved reachable matrix, and draws directed arcs between the node pairs from the lower level to the upper level to represent the reachable relationship; S53 determines, for directed arcs across levels, whether the directed arcs can be derived based on the transfer of existing directed arcs. If so, it is not necessary to draw them. If not, a directed connection graph is drawn according to step S52.

7. The method for analyzing factors affecting power supply and demand based on explanatory structural modeling according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The direct binary relationship can be expressed as: in, is an element in the adjacency matrix A, express and There is a direct relationship, express and There is no direct relationship.

8. The method for analyzing factors affecting power supply and demand based on explanatory structural modeling according to claim 7 is characterized in that: The adjacency matrix is ​​specifically: Among them, n is the number of factors, rows represent the factors that exert influence, columns represent the affected factors, 1 indicates that there is a direct influence between two factors, and 0 indicates that there is no direct influence.

9. The method for analyzing factors affecting power supply and demand based on explanatory structural modeling according to claim 8, characterized in that: The reachable matrix is ​​specifically: Among them, A is the adjacency matrix, I is the identity matrix, M is the reachability matrix, m is the number of times it is multiplied by itself, and if there is a direct influence relationship between two elements, it is marked as 1. If it can be reached indirectly through other elements, it is also marked as 1, otherwise it is marked as 0.

10. The method for analyzing factors affecting power supply and demand based on explanatory structural modeling according to claim 9, characterized in that: The recursive hierarchical model is specifically: Where r represents the number of levels in the hierarchical model.

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