Weather factors

Abstract

A system and method for determining an expected voyage cost is provided. The system and method utilize a plurality of voyage simulations to determine cost information for each simulation. The voyage simulation utilizes a digital twin model of the vessel, an expected course of the vessel, and weather data associated with each course. The results of the simulation are used to generate a statistical probability of expected costs for the voyage, facilitating more accurate prediction of costs that can be used to assess voyage feasibility and profit.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates generally to transportation. More particularly, the present invention relates to shipping optimization. Background Art

[0002] Shipping costs are variable, and weather can have a significant adverse impact on shipping profit margins. When transporting a given freight by sea - on average - two-thirds of the voyage cost is attributable to fuel consumption. This makes accurate fuel consumption forecasts very valuable, especially for traders who must price cargo weeks before it is shipped. Therefore, it would be beneficial to have a system and method for forecasting fuel consumption.

[0003] Voyage profit is determined by subtracting voyage costs from voyage revenue. In general, voyage costs are determined by fuel consumption, fuel prices, fuel emission prices, voyage duration, vessel charter rates, and port charges, most of which are highly variable. Voyage revenue, on the other hand, is determined by cargo weight multiplied by freight rates, which are often known values ​​or may be negotiated values. Therefore, it would be beneficial to have a system and method for determining reliable expected voyage costs so that reliable expected profits can be determined (or negotiated) for a variety of potential freight rates, thereby helping traders obtain better profits and / or helping traders avoid unprofitable transactions.

[0004] Fuel consumption and voyage duration prediction is a complex task and many factors must be considered, such as certain factors sometimes referred to as sea margin or weather margin (referred to herein as "weather factors").

[0005] Weather factors refer to the increase in fuel consumption and duration of a voyage due to bad weather en route compared to a voyage conducted in non-bad weather conditions. Since there are many factors associated with weather, it is unwise to rely solely on experience and "gut feeling" before embarking on a voyage. Therefore, it would be advantageous to have a system and method for accurately determining the expected weather factors for a voyage.

[0006] There are several existing solutions for determining weather factors, but each solution has its limitations and drawbacks. For example, some existing solutions utilize fixed weather factors, some of which take into account seasonal variations. Unfortunately, determining weather factors by selecting from predetermined fixed weather factor values ​​provides limited accuracy and is susceptible to human bias. Therefore, it would be beneficial to have a system and method for determining weather factors with a high level of accuracy. Furthermore, it would be beneficial to have a system and method that eliminates or otherwise limits the effects of human bias when determining weather factors.

[0007] Other existing solutions utilize historical shipping data or statistical post-processing. Unfortunately, such approaches often lack statistical significance due to the small overall size of data points. There are too few historical routes with the same type of vessel, similar speed, and similar departure destination. There are even fewer relevant historical routes, considering that the time of year can be a major factor for determining accurate statistical forecasts. In other words, when limited historical and / or statistical information is used to determine weather factors, the reliability of expected future weather factors is limited. Therefore, it would be beneficial to have a system and method for determining reliable weather factors.

[0008] Other existing solutions utilize one-off case studies. Unfortunately, such studies are time consuming. Furthermore, such studies are often only for one vessel (class) and / or a specific route. Any changes require a completely new, time consuming case study. Therefore, it would be beneficial to have a system and method for quickly determining weather factors. It would be even more beneficial to quickly determine various weather factors based on their influencing factors (hereinafter referred to as "influencing factors"), thereby increasing the applicability of the information. Summary of the invention

[0009] The present invention includes a system and method for obtaining an accurate forecast of fuel consumption for a long voyage, thereby helping traders to price the cargo weeks before it is shipped. In some embodiments, the system uses various information to determine the expected fuel consumption, such as vessel characteristics, cargo weight, expected departure date, expected weather, expected route, expected speed, expected voyage duration, etc.

[0010] The present invention also includes a system and method for determining reliable expected voyage costs, thereby helping traders achieve better profits and / or helping traders avoid unprofitable transactions.

[0011] Additionally, the present invention includes a system and method for accurately determining expected weather factors.

[0012] Furthermore, the present invention determines the exact weather factors.

[0013] Furthermore, the present invention eliminates or otherwise limits the effects of human bias in determining weather factors.

[0014] Furthermore, the present invention determines reliable weather factors.

[0015] Furthermore, the present invention quickly determines various weather factors based on various influencing factors.

[0016] In some embodiments, the present invention utilizes a simulation model during the simulation step. In some such embodiments, the simulation model is a high-fidelity digital twin model of the ship, thereby taking into account the specific characteristics of the ship. In some embodiments, the simulation step utilizes a route algorithm, such as a search algorithm. In some embodiments, the algorithm utilizes weather data (weather optimized routes) and optimizes routes such as overall shortest time, minimum fuel consumption, and minimum total cost. In some embodiments, the simulation model is used to determine the impact of external influences (such as bad weather or ocean currents) on the ship during the simulation, which will affect the overall performance of the ship, such as through speed loss, increased fuel consumption, and increased emissions. In some embodiments, the present invention facilitates the development of one or more expected routes and / or identifies one or more restricted routes and / or areas.

[0017] In some embodiments, the present invention utilizes historical information, such as historical weather / climate information. In some embodiments, the present invention utilizes current information, such as weather observation data. In some embodiments, the present invention utilizes forecast information, such as weather forecast information. In some embodiments, the present invention utilizes various information, such as historical, current and / or forecast information.

[0018] According to a first aspect, a system for determining an expected cost for an expected voyage for a vessel is provided. The system comprises a voyage simulator for running a plurality of voyage simulations, each voyage simulation utilizing voyage information, vessel information, and weather information to determine cost information. Preferably, the voyage simulator utilizes a digital twin of the vessel, at least some of the vessel information being used to define the digital twin.

[0019] Preferably, the voyage information includes at least one of: a departure location; a departure date and time; an intended route; a commanded or intended speed of travel; a destination location; and a required or expected arrival date and time.

[0020] Preferably, the cost information comprises at least one of: fuel consumption; emissions; and trip duration.

[0021] Preferably, the weather information is associated with a geographical area including the intended route and the first alternative route.

[0022] Preferably, the plurality of voyage simulations include a first voyage simulation and a second voyage simulation, wherein the first voyage simulation utilizes voyage information associated with the intended route, and wherein the second voyage simulation utilizes voyage information associated with the first alternative route. More preferably, the plurality of voyage simulations include a first voyage simulation and a second voyage simulation, wherein the first voyage simulation utilizes weather information associated with a first time period, wherein the second voyage simulation utilizes weather information associated with a second time period, and wherein the first time period and the second time period are separated in time from each other by at least one year. More preferably, the first voyage simulation utilizes voyage information associated with the intended route, and wherein the second voyage simulation utilizes voyage information associated with the first alternative route.

[0023] Preferably, the system further comprises a probability module configured to determine a first statistical probability of an expected cost for the voyage based on cost information from each of the plurality of voyage simulations. More preferably, the first statistical probability of the expected cost is associated with the first expected cost, and wherein the probability module is further configured to determine a second statistical probability of the expected cost associated with the second expected cost.

[0024] According to a second aspect, a method for determining an expected cost for an expected voyage for a vessel, the method comprising: running a plurality of voyage simulations, wherein each voyage simulation utilizes: vessel information; voyage information; and weather information; and determining cost information for each voyage simulation. Preferably, the voyage simulator utilizes a digital twin of the vessel, at least some of the vessel information being used to define the digital twin.

[0025] Preferably, the voyage information includes at least one of: a departure location; a departure date and time; an intended route; a commanded or intended speed of travel; a destination location; and a required or expected arrival date and time.

[0026] Preferably, the cost information comprises at least one of: fuel consumption; emissions; and trip duration.

[0027] Preferably, the weather information is associated with a geographical area including the intended route and the first alternative route.

[0028] Preferably, the plurality of voyage simulations include a first voyage simulation and a second voyage simulation, wherein the first voyage simulation utilizes voyage information associated with the intended route, and wherein the second voyage simulation utilizes voyage information associated with the first alternative route. More preferably, the plurality of voyage simulations include a first voyage simulation and a second voyage simulation, wherein the first voyage simulation utilizes weather information associated with a first time period, wherein the second voyage simulation utilizes weather information associated with a second time period, and wherein the first time period and the second time period are temporally separated from each other by at least one year.

[0029] Preferably, the first flight simulation utilizes flight information associated with the intended route and wherein the second flight simulation utilizes flight information associated with the first alternative route.

[0030] Preferably, the method further comprises determining a first statistical probability for an expected cost for the voyage based on cost information from each of the plurality of voyage simulations.

[0031] Preferably, the method further comprises determining a second statistical probability of the expected cost, the first statistical probability and the second statistical probability of the expected cost being associated with the respective first and second expected costs. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0032] Embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which:

[0033] Figure 1 is a graph showing variable cost distribution associated with voyage weather conditions according to an exemplary embodiment.

[0034] Figure 2 is a diagram depicting a process overview and voyage simulation according to an exemplary embodiment.

[0035] Figure 3 is a visual representation of three digital twins associated with the present invention, each digital twin being associated with a different time period.

[0036] Figure 4A yes Figure 3 Visual representation of the three digital twins, each shown in their relative position towards the start of the voyage.

[0037] Figure 4B yes Figure 3 Visual representation of the three digital twins, each shown in their relative position towards mid-voyage.

[0038] Figure 4C yes Figure 3 Visual representation of the three digital twins, each shown in relative position towards the end of the voyage. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0039] As required, detailed embodiments of the present invention are disclosed herein; however, it should be understood that the disclosed embodiments are merely examples of the principles of the present invention, which can be embodied in various forms. Therefore, the specific structural details and functional details disclosed herein should not be interpreted as limiting, but should only serve as the basis for the claims and as a representative basis for teaching those skilled in the art to adopt the present invention in various ways in almost any appropriate detailed structure.

[0040] The present invention includes a dynamic weather factor system and method. In some embodiments, the system utilizes a two-stage weather factor determination process. In some embodiments, the first stage of the process is a simulation stage. In some embodiments, the second stage of the process is a dynamic statistical output stage. In some embodiments, the two-stage weather factor determination system and method utilize multiple inputs, such as data fragments, to initiate the first stage or the second stage, or both.

[0041] In some embodiments, the input includes one or more of the voyage and / or ship details. In some embodiments, general voyage details include one or more of the following: departure and destination locations (and / or coordinates), command and / or expected speed of the voyage, departure date and time, etc. In some embodiments, the ship details (or details) include one or more of the following: (specific and / or approximate) size of the ship, the safety margin of the ship (e.g., clearance under the keel or UKC), the draft of the ship, the depth of the ship, etc. In some embodiments, the ship details also include one or more details related to the type of ship and cargo, such as cargo type, cargo capacity, etc. In some embodiments, the input also includes one or more costs, such as fuel costs, personnel costs, maintenance costs, etc. In some embodiments, the input also includes one or more details of a ship model, such as a digital model, which includes one or more characteristics representing a ship carrying out a voyage. In some embodiments, the input includes one or more restrictions. In some embodiments, the restrictions are restricted areas, such as areas restricted by environmental regulations, areas restricted by laws and regulations, etc. In some embodiments, the system complies with and / or provides indications of various restrictions and considerations, such as traffic separation schemes, default port approaches, dangerous goods type restrictions, vessel size restrictions, vertical clearance restrictions at bridges, maximum draft restrictions, depth restrictions, vessel gross tonnage restrictions, vessel class restrictions, shortcut areas based on departure or destination ports, seasonal whale sanctuaries with speed restrictions, peak restrictions away from northern or southern hemisphere ice areas, pirate avoidance zones, user-specific avoidance zones, etc. In some embodiments, one or more details of the route are included in the input. In some embodiments, the details of the route include one or more fixed points or waypoints, which are recommended and / or required points that the route ideally or must pass through during the voyage.

[0042] In some embodiments, a high-fidelity digital twin of the vessel is included. The digital twin includes specific characteristics of its real-world counterpart. The digital twin may include, for example, a data-driven model of the vessel's dimensions, performance characteristics, maintenance requirements, and physical components and characteristics of the vessel. In some embodiments, the input includes historical weather data. In some embodiments, the historical weather data includes data relevant to the assessment of the voyage, such as historical wind conditions, ocean conditions, precipitation, temperature, and other weather conditions. In some embodiments, the historical weather data is based on historical weather conditions for a predetermined time range, such as the previous 20 years.

[0043] In some embodiments, the first stage of the system and method includes simulation. In some embodiments, the simulation is a voyage simulation. In some embodiments, the voyage simulation utilizes one or more inputs (such as digital twins) and historical weather data. In some embodiments, the simulation is performed by a computer system that can be programmed to simulate the voyage. In some embodiments, the computer system is programmed to simulate the voyage by running one or more programs and / or modules. In some embodiments, the computer system is programmed to simulate the voyage by running multiple individual simulations, each simulation based on a different set of historical weather conditions. In some embodiments, the computer system is programmed to simulate the progress of the ship along the route by considering inputs and historical weather conditions. In some embodiments, the computer system is programmed to simulate the progress of the ship along the route by considering inputs and historical weather conditions and by predicting future weather conditions. In some embodiments, the computer system is programmed to simulate the progress of the ship along the route by considering inputs and historical weather conditions and by predicting future weather conditions and by predicting the performance of the ship relative to future weather conditions. In some embodiments, the computer system is programmed to simulate the progress of the vessel along the route by taking into account inputs and historical weather conditions and by making predictions of future weather conditions and by making predictions of the performance of the vessel relative to the future weather conditions and by making predictions of the cost of the vessel relative to the future weather conditions.

[0044] In some embodiments, during the first stage, the computer system is programmed to determine the progress of the vessel based at least in part (but in some embodiments entirely) on a set of predetermined rules or data points. In some embodiments, the predetermined rules include one or more non-dynamic aspects of the voyage, inputs, and / or weather data. For example, if the vessel is scheduled to arrive at a port at a certain time, the computer system will simulate the progress of the vessel to that point in time, and if the vessel is scheduled to leave the port at a certain time, the computer system will simulate the progress of the vessel from that point in time. By way of further example, if the vessel is scheduled to dock at a certain location, the computer system will simulate the progress of the vessel to that point, and if the vessel is scheduled to dock at a certain location for a period of time, the computer system will simulate the progress of the vessel to that point and will simulate the progress of the vessel during the docking, and if the vessel is scheduled to dock at a certain location for a period of time and then scheduled to leave at a certain time, the computer system will simulate the progress of the vessel to that point, will simulate the progress of the vessel during the docking, and will simulate the progress of the vessel from that point.

[0045] In some embodiments, the computer simulates multiple simulated voyages in parallel. In some embodiments, one or more algorithms are utilized when performing one or more simulations. In some embodiments, the various simulations utilize the same input parameters, while in some embodiments, each simulation utilizes input parameters with variances, while in some embodiments, some input parameters are similar between simulations, while one or more other input parameters are different between simulations. In some embodiments, historical weather data is an input parameter, and in some embodiments, the input parameter is similar between simulations, while in some embodiments, the input parameter is different between simulations. In some embodiments, historical weather data is segmented by time (such as by minutes, hours, days, months, years, etc.), and in some embodiments, various simulations utilize different time periods of historical weather data as at least one input for each of the various simulations.

[0046] In some embodiments, the second phase of the system and method includes one or more dynamic statistical outputs. In some embodiments, the dynamic statistical output is a statistical probability. In some embodiments, the statistical probability is the result of one or more outputs of a large number of simulations performed in the first phase of the system and method. In some embodiments, the statistical probability and / or output indicate the possibility of occurrence of one or more parameters (in some embodiments, based on one or more simulations). In some embodiments, these parameters include but are not limited to fuel consumption, emissions and range duration.

[0047] In some embodiments, the probability of occurrence of a parameter is expressed as a percentage, or the number of occurrences out of the total number of simulations performed. In some embodiments, the statistical probability is expressed as a distribution. In some embodiments, the distribution is a normal distribution. In some embodiments, the distribution is expressed as a curve. In some embodiments, the distribution is a histogram. In some embodiments, the statistical probability is expressed as a percentile.

[0048] In some embodiments, the dynamic statistical output also includes one or more details of the simulation. In some embodiments, the dynamic statistical output also includes one or more details of the voyage simulated in the first phase. In some embodiments, the dynamic statistical output also includes one or more details of the weather conditions utilized in the various simulations. In some embodiments, the dynamic statistical output also includes one or more details of the performance of the ship in the various simulations. In some embodiments, the dynamic statistical output also includes one or more details of the cost of the ship in the various simulations.

[0049] In some embodiments, the dynamic statistical output also includes one or more suggestions, such as a suggested route or route correction. In some embodiments, the suggestions are based on statistical probabilities and / or details of the simulation. In some embodiments, the suggestions are based on statistical probabilities and / or details of the simulation and are generated by a computer system. In some embodiments, the suggestions are based on statistical probabilities and / or details of the simulation and are generated by a computer system that is programmed to generate suggestions, such as by one or more algorithms. In some embodiments, the suggestions are based on statistical probabilities and / or details of the simulation and are generated by a computer system that is programmed to generate suggestions by utilizing one or more programs and / or modules. In some embodiments, the suggestions are based on statistical probabilities and / or details of the simulation and are generated by a computer system that is programmed to generate suggestions by utilizing one or more programs and / or modules and by utilizing one or more algorithms.

[0050] In some embodiments, the system and method also includes utilizing the disclosed first and second stages to further implement a third stage. In some embodiments, the third stage includes combining one or more outputs of the second stage with one or more forecast weather data. In some embodiments, the combination is implemented on a computing system having one or more algorithms. In some embodiments, the result of the combination is one or more outputs that provide an estimated or precise arrival time of one or more en route vessels. In some embodiments, the present invention includes a system for determining an expected cost for an expected voyage for a vessel, such as a shipping vessel, etc. In some such embodiments, the system and method includes or utilizes a voyage simulator to run multiple voyage simulations. Reference Figure 3 and Figure 4A-4CIn some embodiments, some of the multiple voyage simulations follow the same or similar routes using weather information from corresponding time periods, thereby facilitating determining cost information for each time period, such as voyage duration, fuel consumption, and emissions. In other embodiments, some of the multiple voyage simulations follow different routes using weather information from the same or similar time periods. In still other embodiments, some of the multiple voyage simulations follow different routes using weather information from corresponding time periods.

[0051] The foregoing and other purposes are intended to illustrate the present invention, but not in a limiting sense. After studying the following specification and the accompanying drawings that form a part thereof, many possible embodiments of the present invention can be realized and will become apparent. The various features and sub-combinations of the present invention can be adopted without reference to other features and sub-combinations. Other objects and advantages of the present invention will become apparent from the following description in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, in which embodiments of the present invention and various features thereof are described by way of illustration and example.

Claims

1. A system for determining an expected cost for an expected voyage for a vessel, the system comprising a voyage simulator for running a plurality of voyage simulations, each voyage simulation utilizing voyage information, vessel information, and weather information to determine cost information.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein the voyage simulator utilizes a digital twin of the vessel, at least some of the vessel information being utilized to define the digital twin.

3. A system according to any one of the preceding claims, wherein the voyage information comprises at least one of the following: Departure point; Departure date and time; Intended route; the commanded or expected speed of travel; Destination location; and Requested or desired date and time of arrival.

4. The system according to any one of the preceding claims, wherein the cost information comprises at least one of the following: Fuel consumption; Emissions; and Duration of the voyage.

5. A system according to any one of the preceding claims, wherein the weather information is associated with a geographical area including the intended route and a first alternative route.

6. The system of any one of the preceding claims, wherein the plurality of voyage simulations comprises a first voyage simulation and a second voyage simulation, wherein the first voyage simulation utilizes voyage information associated with the intended route, and wherein the second voyage simulation utilizes voyage information associated with the first alternative route.

7. The system of claim 5, wherein the plurality of voyage simulations include a first voyage simulation and a second voyage simulation, wherein the first voyage simulation utilizes weather information associated with a first time period, wherein the second voyage simulation utilizes weather information associated with a second time period, and wherein the first time period and the second time period are separated in time from each other by at least one year. 8 . The system of claim 7 , wherein the first flight simulation utilizes flight information associated with the intended route, and wherein the second flight simulation utilizes flight information associated with the first alternative route.

9. The system of any preceding claim, further comprising a probability module configured to determine a first statistical probability of an expected cost for the voyage based on cost information from each of the plurality of voyage simulations.

10. The system of claim 9, wherein the first statistical probability of the expected cost is associated with the first expected cost, and wherein the probability module is further configured to determine a second statistical probability of the expected cost associated with a second expected cost.

11. A method for determining an expected cost for an expected voyage for a vessel, the method comprising: Run multiple voyage simulations, where each voyage simulation utilizes: Vessel information; Voyage information; as well as Weather information; as well as Cost information is determined for each voyage simulation.

12. The method of claim 11, wherein the voyage simulator utilizes a digital twin of the vessel, at least some of the vessel information being utilized to define the digital twin.

13. The method according to any one of claims 11-12, wherein the voyage information comprises at least one of the following: Departure point; Departure date and time; Intended route; the commanded or expected speed of travel; Destination location; and Requested or desired date and time of arrival.

14. The method according to any one of claims 11 to 13, wherein the cost information comprises at least one of the following: Fuel consumption; Emissions; and Duration of the voyage.

15. The method of any one of claims 11-14, wherein the weather information is associated with a geographic area including the intended route and a first alternative route.

16. The method of any one of claims 11-15, wherein the plurality of flight simulations comprises a first flight simulation and a second flight simulation, wherein the first flight simulation utilizes flight information associated with the intended route, and wherein the second flight simulation utilizes flight information associated with the first alternative route.

17. The method of claim 15, wherein the plurality of voyage simulations include a first voyage simulation and a second voyage simulation, wherein the first voyage simulation utilizes weather information associated with a first time period, wherein the second voyage simulation utilizes weather information associated with a second time period, and wherein the first time period and the second time period are separated in time from each other by at least one year.

18. The method of claim 17, wherein the first flight simulation utilizes flight information associated with the intended route, and wherein the second flight simulation utilizes flight information associated with the first alternative route.

19. The method of any one of claims 11-18, further comprising determining a first statistical probability of an expected cost for the voyage based on cost information from each of the plurality of voyage simulations.

20. The method of claim 19, further comprising determining a second statistical probability of an expected cost, the first and second statistical probabilities of an expected cost being associated with respective first and second expected costs.

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