Quantitative evaluation method and system for flight delay influence degree based on weather influence

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of civil aviation air traffic flow management, and discloses a flight delay influence degree quantitative evaluation method and system based on weather influence, and the method comprises the following steps: determining the recovery time and the shortest recovery time of airport arrival and departure flights in an airport in a weather influence process; determining a judgment standard of flight delay influence according to the shortest recovery time; and constructing a flight delay influence degree quantification model, and based on the judgment standard of the flight delay influence, using the flight delay influence degree quantification model to quantify the influence degree of the weather on the flight delay. According to the invention, a scientific traffic management decision basis is provided based on the influence of severe weather on flight flight, and an effective and timely traffic management regulation decision is made on the basis of weather forecast and live products. And the method has extremely important and profound strategic significance for reasonably utilizing airspace resources, relieving control pressure, reducing the operation cost of airline companies, improving the airport operation efficiency, ensuring the flight safety and effectively performing.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of civil aviation air traffic flow management, and in particular to a method and system for quantitatively evaluating the degree of impact of flight delays based on weather influences. Background Art

[0002] With the development of the civil aviation industry and the rapid increase in the number of flights, the contradiction between the existing support capabilities of the civil aviation air traffic control system and the growing demand for air traffic is increasing day by day. In order to balance the contradiction between support capabilities and support needs, that is, the contradiction between air traffic capacity and air traffic flow, the Civil Aviation Administration adopts the method of flow management, by adjusting the air traffic flow of some time periods in advance to make it lower than the air traffic capacity of that time period, so as to avoid the flow exceeding the capacity, which will lead to flight delays or even civil aviation safety incidents.

[0003] Among the many factors that affect air traffic capacity, meteorological factors have an increasingly greater impact on the decline in air traffic control support capabilities. It has gradually become an important link that cannot be ignored when making traffic management decisions. Foggy weather, low cloud weather, heavy precipitation weather, and thunderstorm weather will all cause a decrease in the dynamic capacity of airports and airspace. Taking the pre-tactical stage of traffic management as an example, how to scientifically predict the impact of future weather on airport flight delays, and then make timely advance adjustments to future air traffic flows, thereby reducing flight delays and improving flight regularity, is a common concern of the air traffic control industry today and an issue that needs to be solved urgently.

[0004] Since meteorology and traffic control belong to two different professions, the nature of the profession and the way of thinking of professionals are different. The barriers between professions make it difficult for traffic control and meteorology to be integrated in current traffic management work. This directly leads to the fact that in many cases, traffic observation decisions in the pre-tactical stage are subjective and made on a whim. The quality of traffic management decisions depends more on the subjective experience of decision makers and lacks certain scientificity and reliability. This is also a common problem in current traffic management work.

[0005] Currently, no effective solution has been proposed for the problems in the related technologies. Summary of the invention

[0006] In view of the problems in the related art, the present invention proposes a method and system for quantitatively evaluating the impact of flight delays based on weather influence, so as to overcome the above-mentioned technical problems existing in the existing related art.

[0007] The present invention solves this problem by establishing a scientific and standard model of the degree of weather impact on airport delays. This model unifies the judgment criteria for the degree of airport flight delays, helps traffic management decision-makers to scientifically evaluate how much impact weather will have on the normality of future airport flights, and provides scientific and reliable data information references for the flight schedule adjustment strategy in the next pre-tactical stage. It is of great significance to improve the quality of airport traffic decision-making. In addition, a standardized quantitative grading model for the degree of delay impact can help to measure the flight delays of various airports from the perspective of national traffic management, which is of great help in helping the overall decision-making of national traffic management. At the same time, this model helps the meteorological department to think about problems from the perspective of control user needs, helps the meteorological service department to understand the meteorological elements or thresholds that are important for traffic management decisions, and carries out forecast research and forecast product services in a more targeted manner.

[0008] To this end, the specific technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows: According to one aspect of the present invention, a method for quantitatively evaluating the impact of flight delays based on weather is provided, comprising the following steps: S1. Based on the real-time capacity and real-time traffic of the airport, determine the recovery time and the shortest recovery time of the airport's inbound and outbound flights during the weather impact, and determine the criteria for determining the impact of flight delays based on the shortest recovery time; S2. A quantitative model for the impact of flight delays is constructed based on the reverse analysis results of the shortest recovery time. Based on the criteria for determining the impact of flight delays, the quantitative model for the impact of flight delays is used to quantify the impact of weather on flight delays.

[0009] Furthermore, based on the real-time capacity and traffic of the airport, the recovery time of the airport's inbound and outbound flights during the weather impact is determined as follows: During the entire process of severe weather affecting the airport or airport terminal area, when the hourly dynamic traffic capacity of the airport or terminal area decreases due to the weather and begins to fall below the hourly scheduled number of flights at the airport, this time is determined as time t0; When the hourly dynamic traffic capacity of the airport or terminal area begins to rise and exceeds the hourly flight schedule of the airport, this moment is determined as moment t1; When the airport or terminal area has completely processed the flight plans and backlog flights originally belonging to this time in the flight plan, this time is determined as time t2; Calculate the time difference between time t2 and time t1, and use the time difference as the recovery time for inbound and outbound flights at the airport during weather impact.

[0010] Furthermore, based on the real-time capacity and traffic of the airport, the shortest recovery time for inbound and outbound flights during the weather impact is determined as follows: During the entire process of severe weather affecting the airport or airport terminal area, when the hourly dynamic traffic capacity of the airport or terminal area decreases due to the weather and begins to fall below the hourly scheduled number of flights at the airport, this time is determined as time t0; When the hourly dynamic traffic capacity of the airport or terminal area begins to rise and exceeds the hourly flight schedule of the airport, this moment is determined as moment t1; When the airport or terminal area continues to release and receive aircraft according to the upper limit of the dynamic capacity until the backlog of flights is completely processed, the time when the inbound and outbound flights are completely restored to normal at that moment is determined as t max time; Calculate t max The time difference between time t and time t1 is used as the shortest recovery time for inbound and outbound flights at the airport during the weather impact.

[0011] Furthermore, the criteria for determining the impact of flight delays include criteria for determining the impact of flight delays in a departure situation and criteria for determining the impact of flight delays in an arrival situation.

[0012] Furthermore, the criteria for determining the impact of flight delays in the departure situation include: When T≤1h, the impact of flight delay is divided into four levels of delay impact; When 1h<T≤2h, the impact of flight delay is divided into three levels of delay impact; When 2h<T≤4h, the flight delay impact is classified as Level 2 delay impact; When T>4h, the flight delay impact is classified as level 1 delay impact; Wherein, T represents the shortest flight recovery time, and h represents hours.

[0013] Furthermore, the criteria for determining the impact of flight delays in the case of arrival include: When T≤1h, and all incoming aircraft circling and waiting in the air can land within 1 hour, the impact of flight delay is divided into four levels of delay impact; When 1h<T≤2h, and all aircraft circling and waiting in the air can complete landing within 1 hour or some aircraft circling and waiting in the air cannot complete landing within 1 hour, the impact of flight delay is divided into three levels of delay impact; When 2h<T≤4h, and all the aircraft circling in the air can land within 1 hour, or there are two or more times when the aircraft circling in the air cannot land within 1 hour, the flight delay impact is classified as Level 2 delay impact; When T>4h, and all the aircraft circling and waiting in the air can complete the landing within 1 hour; or 2h<T≤4h, and there are aircraft circling and waiting in the air that cannot complete the landing within 1 hour, the flight delay impact is classified as level 1 delay impact; Wherein, T represents the shortest flight recovery time, and h represents hours.

[0014] Furthermore, the flight delay impact quantification model includes a flight delay impact quantification model for departure and a flight delay impact quantification model for arrival.

[0015] Furthermore, the expression of the quantitative model of the impact of flight delays in the departure case is:

[0016]

[0017] In the formula, represents the impact quantitative parameter, t1 represents the time when the complex weather affecting the flight ends, T represents the shortest flight recovery time, represents the saturation flight coefficient, It indicates the actual number of flights guaranteed to depart from the airport during the period from i to i+0.5h under the expected weather conditions. represents the number of flights scheduled to depart during the period from i to i+0.5h, t0 represents the time when the complex weather affecting the flight begins, Indicates the number of flights that need to be rescheduled. Indicates the flight time adjustment ratio.

[0018] Furthermore, the expression of the quantitative model of the impact of flight delays in the case of arrival is:

[0019]

[0020] In the formula, represents the impact quantitative parameter, t1 represents the time when the complex weather affecting the flight is expected to end, T represents the shortest flight recovery time, represents the saturation flight coefficient, It indicates the actual number of flights guaranteed to depart from the airport during the period from i to i+0.5h under the expected weather conditions. represents the number of flights scheduled to depart during the period from i to i+0.5h, t0 represents the time when the complex weather affecting the flight begins, represents the number of circling aircraft digested per hour, t represents any hour between t0 and t1, It indicates the number of planes circling and waiting in the air one hour before time t.

[0021] According to another aspect of the present invention, a flight delay impact degree quantitative assessment system based on weather influence is provided, the flight delay impact degree quantitative assessment system based on weather influence comprises a time concept determination module and a flight delay impact degree quantification module; The time concept determination module is used to determine the recovery time and the shortest recovery time of the airport's inbound and outbound flights during the weather impact based on the airport's real-time capacity and real-time traffic, and determine the criteria for determining the impact of flight delays based on the shortest recovery time; The flight delay impact quantification module is used to construct a flight delay impact quantification model based on the reverse analysis results of the shortest recovery time, and based on the flight delay impact judgment criteria, use the flight delay impact quantification model to quantify the impact of weather on flight delays.

[0022] The beneficial effects of the present invention are: 1) The present invention provides a scientific basis for traffic flow management decision-making based on the impact of severe weather on flight operations, and makes effective and timely traffic flow management and control decisions based on weather forecasts and real-time products. It has extremely important and far-reaching strategic significance for the rational use of airspace resources, relieving control pressure, reducing airline operating costs, improving airport operating efficiency, and ensuring flight safety and efficiency.

[0023] 2) The present invention, through the concept of recovery time, can achieve a scientific quantitative assessment of the extent of airport flight delays caused by future weather affecting the airport based on the airport forecast conclusions. A standardized and universal quantitative assessment model can provide a scientific basis for pre-tactical stage traffic management decisions and provide a theoretical research foundation for further scientific and reasonable flight schedule adjustments. At the same time, through the quantitative assessment of the impact of flight delays, it can provide meteorological service agencies with aviation meteorological services to clearly control the forecast thresholds and forecast nodes required by users, so as to carry out forecast work in a better and targeted manner, and to a certain extent solve the pain point of different frequencies between meteorological services and control needs.

[0024] 3) The present invention can not only quantitatively compare the impact of different bad weather, different impact time and different duration on airport flight delays based on the concept of recovery time, but also establish a standardized and universal airport flight delay impact quantitative evaluation model based on the concept of the shortest recovery time. Different flight delay impact indicators are set up according to the difference in the shortest recovery time, providing a reference for subsequent pre-tactical stage traffic management decisions. It is the basis for further scientific and reasonable flight schedule adjustments. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0025] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0026] Figure 1 is a flow chart of a method for quantitatively evaluating the degree of impact of flight delays based on weather influence according to an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 2 is a schematic diagram of weather impact capacity in a method for quantitatively assessing the degree of flight delay impact based on weather impact according to an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 3 It is a schematic diagram of recovery time in a method for quantitatively evaluating the degree of impact of flight delays based on weather influence according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0027] To further illustrate each embodiment, the present invention provides drawings, which are part of the disclosure of the present invention and are mainly used to illustrate the embodiments and can be used in conjunction with the relevant descriptions in the specification to explain the operating principles of the embodiments. With reference to these contents, ordinary technicians in the field should be able to understand other possible implementations and advantages of the present invention. The components in the figures are not drawn to scale, and similar component symbols are generally used to represent similar components.

[0028] According to an embodiment of the present invention, a method and system for quantitatively evaluating the degree of impact of flight delays based on weather influence are provided.

[0029] The present invention is further described with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. Figure 1-Figure 3 As shown, according to one embodiment of the present invention, a method for quantitatively evaluating the impact of flight delays based on weather influence is provided, comprising the following steps: S1. Based on the real-time capacity and real-time traffic of the airport, determine the recovery time and the shortest recovery time of the airport's inbound and outbound flights during the weather impact, and determine the criteria for determining the impact of flight delays based on the shortest recovery time; Bad weather will have an impact on the normality of the airport, but the size of the impact does not only depend on the intensity and duration of the bad weather, but more importantly, the flight flow during the time period when the bad weather occurs. Bad weather that occurs during a time period with few flights, no matter how bad it is, will have little impact on operations. Bad weather that occurs during a time period with very dense flights, even if the time is very short, will have a great impact on operations. In addition, from the perspective of the overall operation of the airport, considering the impact of bad weather on the overall normality of the airport throughout the day, in addition to the above two factors, it is also necessary to consider how long it will take to digest the delayed flights caused by bad weather. A long digestion time indicates a high degree of impact, and a short digestion time indicates a low degree of impact. The above simple analysis is the most basic and simple model architecture.

[0030] Based on the above ideas, it is proposed to construct the concepts of "recovery time" and "shortest recovery time" and unify the criteria for determining the impact of delays through "shortest recovery time". Figure 2 As shown in the figure, specifically, it involves the calculation and analysis between the real-time capacity of the airport and the real-time flow of the airport. When the airport is expected to be affected by bad weather, the airport capacity will decrease accordingly, that is, the airport arrival rate and the airport departure rate will decrease. When the expected flow of the airport in the corresponding time period is greater than the airport capacity, the excess flights will be delayed. As the airport flow continues to be greater than the airport capacity, the delayed flights will accumulate more and more. When at a certain moment, the bad weather turns better or the airport flow begins to be less than the airport capacity. The backlog of flights delayed in the previous period begins to be digested. The time when all the backlog flights are digested is the recovery time. When it is assumed that the capacity value is used as the flow value for the fastest flight digestion, the time when all the backlog flights are digested is the "shortest recovery time". Through the "shortest recovery time", the judgment criteria for the impact of delays can be unified, and the standardized judgment of the impact of airport delays can be achieved.

[0031] The quantitative standard of flight delay degree under the influence of bad weather is explored and established on an hourly time scale. First, the concept of recovery time is established (e.g. Figure 3 ), which aims to comprehensively analyze the impact of severe weather on airports and their terminal areas: 1) In the complete process of bad weather affecting the airport or airport terminal area, assume that from time t0, the airport or terminal area is affected by the weather, causing the hourly dynamic traffic capacity to decrease and begin to fall below the hourly flight plan of the airport. This will then lead to a certain amount of flight backlogs in the airport ground or air waiting area, affecting the regularity of flights.

[0032] 2) Starting from time t1, as the weather conditions gradually improve, the hourly dynamic traffic capacity of the airport or terminal area begins to rise and exceeds the hourly scheduled number of flights at the airport.

[0033] 3) Starting from t1, the airport or terminal area can not only digest the flight plan originally belonging to this time in the flight plan, but also start to divert the abnormal flights accumulated from t0 to t1. Until all the flights accumulated from t0 to t1 are processed, the time when the inbound and outbound flights are completely restored to normal is set as t2.

[0034] 4) Calculate the time difference between t2 and t1 and set it as △T. △T is the time it takes for the airport's inbound and outbound flights to resume normal operations during this complex weather event.

[0035] The recovery time ΔT reflects the impact of bad weather on inbound and outbound flights, and indirectly reflects the situation of inbound and outbound flights at the airport from the time the bad weather starts to affect the airport to the time the flights are fully restored. The longer the ΔT time is, the slower the time it takes for inbound and outbound flights at the airport to return to normal, which means that the impact of bad weather on the regularity of flights is more serious. Therefore, establishing the concept of recovery time is helpful to evaluate the impact of bad weather on the regularity of inbound and outbound flights at the airport, and to analyze its impact on flight delays.

[0036] Since the recovery time ΔT will also be affected by other non-objective factors such as flight schedules and flow control strategies. In order to be more objective about flight delays caused by bad weather, the concept of the shortest recovery time T is introduced in this embodiment: in the entire process of bad weather affecting the airport or airport terminal area, it is assumed that from time t0, the airport or terminal area is affected by the weather, resulting in a decrease in the hourly dynamic capacity and starting to be lower than the hourly flight schedule of the airport. This will then lead to a certain amount of flight backlogs in the airport ground or air waiting area, affecting the regularity of flights. Starting from time t1, as the weather gradually improves, the hourly dynamic capacity of the airport or terminal area begins to rise and exceeds the hourly flight schedule of the airport. Starting from time t1, the airport or terminal area continues to release and receive aircraft according to the upper limit of the dynamic capacity until all the backlogged flights from t0 to t1 are processed. Set the time when inbound and outbound flights are completely restored to normal at this time to be t max Calculate t max The time difference between t1 and t1 is set as T, which is the shortest recovery time for flights in and out of the airport during this complex weather condition.

[0037] By using the concept of shortest recovery time, we can more objectively evaluate the impact of severe weather on flight delays in and out of the airport according to relatively unified standards.

[0038] S2. A quantitative model for the impact of flight delays is constructed based on the reverse analysis results of the shortest recovery time. Based on the criteria for determining the impact of flight delays, the quantitative model for the impact of flight delays is used to quantify the impact of weather on flight delays.

[0039] Bad weather will cause flights to be unable to take off during the affected period, resulting in a large backlog. The backlogged flights need to be sorted in sequence in the subsequent time period after the bad weather ends, and the backlog of flights will be gradually digested. The shorter the time to digest the backlog of flights, the lower the impact of flight delays. The longer the time to digest the backlog of flights, the greater the impact of flight delays. Therefore, this paper studies the flight backlog delays at the airport when bad weather occurs, the flight arrival and departure demand and the saturation of runway capacity during the dissipation period, and uses the reverse analysis of the shortest recovery time to study the impact of bad weather flight adjustment strategies on operations, and establishes a quantitative model for the impact of departure flight delays.

[0040] The quantitative model of the impact of flight delays includes a quantitative model of the impact of flight delays in the departure case and a quantitative model of the impact of flight delays in the arrival case.

[0041] Specifically, the expression of the quantitative model of the impact of flight delays in the departure case is:

[0042]

[0043] in, It indicates the flights that were affected by weather conditions and could not depart normally during the period from t0 to t1. It indicates the number of flights that cannot depart due to weather conditions and need to be processed within T time. Indicates the number of flights that need to adjust flight schedules; In the formula, represents the impact quantitative parameter, t1 represents the time when the complex weather affecting the flight ends, T represents the shortest flight recovery time, represents the saturation flight coefficient, It indicates the actual number of flights guaranteed to depart from the airport during the period from i to i+0.5h under the expected weather conditions. represents the number of flights scheduled to depart during the period from i to i+0.5h, t0 represents the time when the complex weather affecting the flight begins, Indicates the number of flights that need to be rescheduled. Indicates the flight time adjustment ratio.

[0044] According to the "Overall Plan for Civil Aviation Operation Guarantee in the Thunderstorm Season of 2023" issued by the Civil Aviation Administration during the 2023 summer travel season, 1. Flights that are expected to be delayed for more than two hours must be adjusted as soon as possible through merging and adjusting time. 2. For flights that are expected to be delayed for more than four hours, airlines must make decisive decisions if other means are really not possible to alleviate the delay. 3. For flights with a final time adjustment of ≤30 minutes, normal flight statistics will be carried out based on the original planned time. Based on the degree of impact, the shortest recovery time is divided into four intervals: T≤1 hour, 1 hour <T≤2 hours, 2 hours <T≤4 hours, and 4 hours <T, which are divided into four different response levels.

[0045] Level 4 response: Ø1≥0, indicating that when T=1, all flights delayed due to weather reasons have been restored, so the actual shortest recovery time is less than 1 hour, indicating that flight delays caused by weather factors can theoretically be resolved within one hour after the weather recovers. Under this level of response mechanism, there is no need to make pre-tactical processing in advance, and you only need to pay attention to the changes in the actual weather.

[0046] Level 3 response: Ø1<0 U Ø2≥0, which means that when T=1, the flights that were delayed due to weather reasons have not been restored, but when T=2, all the flights that were delayed have been restored. Therefore, the actual shortest recovery time is between 1 hour and 2 hours, which means that the flight delays caused by weather factors can be absorbed in one to two hours after the weather recovers. Under this level of response mechanism, certain pre-tactical processing is required to ensure the punctuality of flights and reduce flight delays. It is recommended that under this response mechanism, The flight time adjustment ratio is set to 40% to 60%, and the number of flights adjusted is .

[0047] Second level response: Ø2<0 U Ø4≥0, which means that when T=2, the flights that were delayed due to weather reasons have not been restored, but when T=4, all the flights that were delayed have been restored. Therefore, the actual shortest restoration time is between 2 hours and 4 hours, which means that the flight delays caused by weather factors can be absorbed in two to four hours after the weather recovers. Under this level of response mechanism, in order to ensure the punctuality of flights and reduce flight delays, certain pre-tactical processing must be done. It is recommended that under this response mechanism, The flight time adjustment ratio is set to 100%, and the number of flight time adjustments is Level 1 response: Ø4<0, which means that when T=4, the backlog of flights caused by weather reasons has not been restored, which means that the flight delays caused by weather factors will theoretically take more than 4 hours to digest after the weather recovers. Under this level of response mechanism, in order to ensure the punctuality rate of flights and reduce flight delays, certain pre-tactical processing must be done. It is recommended to cancel some flights under this response mechanism, and at the same time, all the remaining delayed flights adopt the time adjustment strategy.

[0048] The idea of ​​establishing a quantitative model for incoming flights is basically the same as that for outgoing flights. The degree of delay impact is quantitatively evaluated by calculating the shortest recovery time. However, the difference between incoming flights and outgoing flights is that outgoing flights can wait on the ground when they are delayed due to bad weather. Although incoming flights can still use the shortest recovery time to theoretically evaluate the degree of delay, they have to consider the safety hazards caused by insufficient fuel when the aircraft is circling and waiting in the airspace. If the fuel is exhausted while circling in the air near the terminal area of ​​the landing airport, the nearest alternate airport must be selected for an alternate landing, or return. Therefore, in the delay impact model of incoming flights, we set a constraint time based on the amount of circling fuel that the aircraft generally carries, and set the waiting time in the air to not exceed one hour, otherwise it must be diverted or return.

[0049] The expression of the quantitative model of the impact of flight delays in the case of arrival is:

[0050]

[0051] in, It indicates the flights that were affected by weather conditions and could not depart normally during the period from t0 to t1. It means that flights that cannot depart due to weather conditions need to be fully digested within T time. Indicates the number of flights that need to adjust flight schedules; In the formula, represents the impact quantitative parameter, t1 represents the time when the complex weather affecting the flight is expected to end, T represents the shortest flight recovery time, represents the saturation flight coefficient, It indicates the actual number of flights guaranteed to depart from the airport during the period from i to i+0.5h under the expected weather conditions. represents the number of flights scheduled to depart during the period from i to i+0.5h, t0 represents the time when the complex weather affecting the flight begins, represents the number of circling aircraft digested per hour, t represents any hour between t0 and t1, It indicates the number of planes circling and waiting in the air one hour before time t.

[0052] Similar to the departure flight delay indicator, for the arrival flight, the shortest recovery time is divided into four intervals according to the impact degree: T≤1 hour, 1 hour<T≤2 hours, 2 hours<T≤4 hours, 4 hours<T, and a total of four response levels. On this basis, the parameters are established. , used to calculate whether a plane circling in the air can land within one hour. >0, it means that the aircraft is hovering in the air and cannot land within 1 hour. <0, indicating that all circling aircraft can land within 1 hour, and the corresponding levels are further divided according to the circling time.

[0053] Level 4 response: During the entire time period, When both are greater than 0, and , which means that when T=1, all flights that were delayed due to weather reasons have been restored, so the actual shortest recovery time is less than or equal to 1 hour, and there will be no aircraft hovering over the airport for more than an hour at this time, which means that flight delays caused by weather factors can theoretically be resolved within an hour after the weather recovers. Under this level of response mechanism, there is no need to make pre-tactical processing in advance, and you only need to pay attention to the changes in the actual weather.

[0054] Level 3 response: During the entire time period, When both are greater than 0, and . Or when a certain hour Less than 0. This means that when T=1, the flights that were delayed due to weather reasons have not been restored, but when T=2, all the flights that were delayed have been restored. Therefore, the actual shortest restoration time is between 1 and 2 hours, which means that the flight delays caused by weather factors can be resolved within two hours after the weather recovers. Or in this level of response mechanism, some pre-tactical processing is needed to ensure the punctuality of flights and reduce flight delays. It is recommended that in this response mechanism, The flight time adjustment ratio is set to 40% to 60%, and the number of flights adjusted is .

[0055] Secondary response: During the entire time period, When both are greater than 0, and U ; or when it occurs for two or more hours are all less than 0. This means that when T=2, the backlogged flights due to weather reasons have not been restored, but when T=4, all the backlogged flights have been restored. Therefore, the actual shortest recovery time is between 2 hours and 4 hours, which means that the flight delays caused by weather factors can theoretically be absorbed within four hours after the weather recovers. Or there are two times when inbound flights hover for more than one hour. Under this level of response mechanism, in order to ensure the punctuality of flights and reduce flight delays, certain pre-tactical processing must be done. It is recommended that under this response mechanism, The flight time adjustment ratio is set to 100%, and the number of flight time adjustments is Level 1 response: During the entire time period, When both are greater than 0, ; or when U , one hour Less than 0. This means that when T=4, the backlog of flights caused by weather reasons has not been restored, which means that after the weather is restored, the flight delay caused by weather factors will theoretically take more than four hours to digest the flight, or the digestion time is between two and four hours, but there is an hour or more in the middle, and there are inbound flights circling in the air for more than one hour. Under this level of response mechanism, in order to ensure the punctuality of flights and reduce flight delays, certain pre-tactical processing must be done. It is recommended that under this response mechanism, some flights be canceled, and at the same time, all the remaining delayed flights adopt a time adjustment strategy.

[0056] According to another embodiment of the present invention, a flight delay impact degree quantitative assessment system based on weather influence is provided, the flight delay impact degree quantitative assessment system based on weather influence comprises a time concept determination module and a flight delay impact degree quantification module; The time concept determination module is used to determine the recovery time and the shortest recovery time of the airport's inbound and outbound flights during the weather impact based on the airport's real-time capacity and real-time traffic, and determine the criteria for determining the impact of flight delays based on the shortest recovery time; The flight delay impact quantification module is used to construct a flight delay impact quantification model based on the reverse analysis results of the shortest recovery time, and based on the flight delay impact judgment criteria, use the flight delay impact quantification model to quantify the impact of weather on flight delays.

[0057] To sum up, with the help of the above-mentioned technical scheme of the present invention, the present invention provides a scientific basis for traffic management decision-making based on the impact of severe weather on flight operations, and makes effective and timely traffic management and control decisions based on weather forecasts and real-time products, which has extremely important and far-reaching strategic significance for the rational use of airspace resources, alleviating control pressure, reducing airline operating costs, improving airport operating efficiency, and ensuring flight safety and efficiency.

[0058] In addition, the present invention can realize the scientific quantitative evaluation of the degree of airport flight delays caused by future weather affecting the airport based on the airport forecast conclusions by proposing the concept of recovery time. A standardized and universal quantitative evaluation model can provide a scientific basis for pre-tactical stage traffic management decisions and provide a theoretical research foundation for further scientific and reasonable flight schedule adjustments. At the same time, through the quantitative evaluation research on the impact of flight delays, it can provide meteorological service agencies with aviation meteorological services to clearly control the forecast thresholds and forecast nodes required by users, so as to carry out forecast work in a better and targeted manner, and to a certain extent solve the pain point of different frequencies between meteorological services and control needs.

[0059] In addition, the present invention can not only quantitatively compare the impact of different bad weather, different impact time, and different duration on airport flight delays based on the concept of recovery time, by establishing the idealized concept of the shortest recovery time, but also establish a standardized and universal airport flight delay impact degree quantitative evaluation model based on the concept of the shortest recovery time, and set up different flight delay impact degree indicators through the difference in the shortest recovery time, providing a reference basis for subsequent pre-tactical stage traffic management decisions. It is the basis for further scientific and reasonable flight schedule adjustments.

[0060] In the present invention, the above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A quantitative assessment method for the impact of flight delays based on weather, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: S1. Based on the real-time capacity and real-time traffic of the airport, determine the recovery time and the shortest recovery time of the airport's inbound and outbound flights during the weather impact, and determine the criteria for determining the impact of flight delays based on the shortest recovery time; S2. A quantitative model for the impact of flight delays is constructed based on the reverse analysis results of the shortest recovery time. Based on the criteria for determining the impact of flight delays, the quantitative model for the impact of flight delays is used to quantify the impact of weather on flight delays.

2. The method for quantitatively evaluating the degree of flight delay impact based on weather influence according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Based on the airport's real-time capacity and real-time traffic, the recovery time of the airport's inbound and outbound flights during the weather impact is determined as follows: During the entire process of severe weather affecting the airport or airport terminal area, when the hourly dynamic traffic capacity of the airport or terminal area decreases due to the weather and begins to fall below the hourly scheduled number of flights at the airport, this time is determined as time t0; When the weather impact ends and the hourly dynamic traffic capacity of the airport or terminal area begins to rise and exceeds the hourly flight schedule of the airport, this moment is determined as moment t1; When the airport or terminal area has completely processed the flight plans and backlog flights originally belonging to this time in the flight plan, this time is determined as time t2; Calculate the time difference between time t2 and time t1, and use the time difference as the recovery time for inbound and outbound flights at the airport during weather impact.

3. The method for quantitatively evaluating the degree of flight delay impact based on weather influence according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Based on the airport's real-time capacity and real-time traffic, the shortest recovery time for inbound and outbound flights during weather impacts is determined as follows: During the entire process of severe weather affecting the airport or airport terminal area, when the hourly dynamic traffic capacity of the airport or terminal area decreases due to the weather and begins to fall below the hourly scheduled number of flights at the airport, this time is determined as time t0; When the hourly dynamic traffic capacity of the airport or terminal area begins to rise and exceeds the hourly flight schedule of the airport, this moment is determined as moment t1; When the airport or terminal area continues to release and receive aircraft according to the upper limit of the dynamic capacity until the backlog of flights is completely processed, the time when the inbound and outbound flights are completely restored to normal at that moment is determined as t max time; Calculate t max The time difference between time t and time t1 is used as the shortest recovery time for inbound and outbound flights at the airport during the weather impact.

4. The method for quantitatively evaluating the degree of impact of flight delays based on weather influence according to claim 1, characterized in that: The criteria for determining the impact of flight delays include criteria for determining the impact of flight delays in the case of departure and criteria for determining the impact of flight delays in the case of arrival.

5. The method for quantitatively evaluating the degree of impact of flight delays based on weather according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The criteria for determining the impact of flight delays in the above departure situations include: When T≤1h, the impact of flight delay is divided into four levels of delay impact; When 1h<T≤2h, the impact of flight delay is divided into three levels of delay impact; When 2h<T≤4h, the flight delay impact is classified as Level 2 delay impact; When T>4h, the flight delay impact is classified as level 1 delay impact; Wherein, T represents the shortest flight recovery time, and h represents hours.

6. The method for quantitatively evaluating the degree of flight delay impact based on weather influence according to claim 5 is characterized in that: The criteria for determining the impact of flight delays in the aforementioned inbound scenario include: When T≤1h, and all incoming aircraft circling and waiting in the air can land within 1 hour, the impact of flight delay is divided into four levels of delay impact; When 1h<T≤2h, and all aircraft circling and waiting in the air can complete landing within 1 hour or some aircraft circling and waiting in the air cannot complete landing within 1 hour, the impact of flight delay is divided into three levels of delay impact; When 2h<T≤4h, and all the aircraft circling in the air can land within 1 hour, or there are two or more times when the aircraft circling in the air cannot land within 1 hour, the flight delay impact is classified as Level 2 delay impact; When T>4h, and all the aircraft circling and waiting in the air can complete the landing within 1 hour; or 2h<T≤4h, and there are aircraft circling and waiting in the air that cannot complete the landing within 1 hour, the flight delay impact is classified as level 1 delay impact; Wherein, T represents the shortest flight recovery time, and h represents hours.

7. The method for quantitatively evaluating the degree of flight delay impact based on weather influence according to claim 1, characterized in that: The flight delay impact quantification model includes a flight delay impact quantification model for departure and a flight delay impact quantification model for arrival.

8. The method for quantitatively evaluating the degree of flight delay impact based on weather influence according to claim 7, characterized in that: The expression of the quantitative model of the impact of flight delays in the departure case is: In the formula, represents the impact quantitative parameter, t1 represents the time when the complex weather affecting the flight ends, T represents the shortest flight recovery time, represents the saturation flight coefficient, It indicates the actual number of flights guaranteed to depart from the airport during the period from i to i+0.5h under the expected weather conditions. represents the number of flights scheduled to depart during the period from i to i+0.5h, t0 represents the time when the complex weather affecting the flight begins, Indicates the number of flights that need to be rescheduled. Indicates the flight time adjustment ratio.

9. The method for quantitatively evaluating the degree of flight delay impact based on weather influence according to claim 7, characterized in that: The expression of the quantitative model of the impact of flight delays in the case of arrival is: In the formula, represents the impact quantitative parameter, t1 represents the time when the complex weather affecting the flight is expected to end, T represents the shortest flight recovery time, represents the saturation flight coefficient, It indicates the actual number of flights guaranteed to depart from the airport during the period from i to i+0.5h under the expected weather conditions. represents the number of flights scheduled to depart during the period from i to i+0.5h, t0 represents the time when the complex weather affecting the flight begins, represents the number of circling aircraft digested per hour, t represents any hour between t0 and t1, It indicates the number of planes circling and waiting in the air one hour before time t.

10. A quantitative assessment system for the impact of flight delays based on weather, used to implement the steps of the quantitative assessment method for the impact of flight delays based on weather as described in any one of claims 1 to 9, characterized in that: The flight delay impact degree quantitative assessment system based on weather influence includes a time concept determination module and a flight delay impact degree quantification module; The time concept determination module is used to determine the recovery time and the shortest recovery time of the airport's inbound and outbound flights during the weather impact based on the airport's real-time capacity and real-time traffic, and determine the criteria for determining the impact of flight delays based on the shortest recovery time; The flight delay impact quantification module is used to construct a flight delay impact quantification model based on the reverse analysis results of the shortest recovery time, and based on the flight delay impact judgment criteria, use the flight delay impact quantification model to quantify the impact of weather on flight delays.

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