Method for predicting deformation and damage risk of water pumping and draining holes in high-position separation waterlogging ground of coal mine

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting the deformation and damage risk of pumping and draining holes in a coal mine high-position separation layer ponding ground, and belongs to the technical field of mine water disaster prevention and control. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, carrying out geological risk evaluation, and on the basis of coal seam thickness, burial depth, distance from a hole bottom to a top plate and lithologic parameters, evaluating static geological dangerousness and generating a partition map by calculating a lithologic difference index and a comprehensive index; then mining risk evaluation is carried out, water level, micro-seismic and mine pressure data in the mining process are obtained in real time, the water level daily drop rate, the micro-seismic daily risk index and the mine pressure daily abnormal index are calculated, the mining disturbance risk is dynamically evaluated, and a mining risk partition map is generated. And finally, superposing the geology and mining risk partition maps to form a comprehensive partition map of the deformation and damage risk of the pumping and drainage hole. According to the method, quantitative, dynamic and spatialized prediction of the deformation risk of the pumping and drainage hole is achieved, the drilling structure design and construction time sequence optimization can be effectively guided, and the safety and stability of a pumping and drainage project are improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of mine water hazard prevention and mine pressure control technology, and in particular to a method for predicting the risk of deformation and damage of surface drainage holes for high-level delamination water accumulation in coal mines. Background Technology

[0002] like Figures 1-4 As shown, after water accumulation and delamination occur in existing mines, the underlying aquitard breaks. At this point, the overlying strata, the water-prone delamination, and the underlying aquitard together constitute a "water-prone delamination zone," triggering delamination water inrush. Unlike the "delamination zone" in traditional models, the "water-prone delamination zone" no longer emphasizes the absolute spatial relationship between the disaster-causing delamination and the water-conducting fracture zone. Instead, it determines the key strata triggering delamination water inrush from the perspective of the spatiotemporal evolution of fractures in the overlying rock structure caused by mining, and analyzes the evolution mechanism of delamination water inrush. Currently, the main method for controlling high-level delamination water accumulation in coal mine roofs is surface drilling and drainage. By draining the high-level delamination and aquifer, the rate of water filling in the delamination space can be effectively slowed down, and the water pressure in the aquifer can be reduced, thereby inhibiting the formation of large-scale delamination water accumulation to a certain extent.

[0003] However, in practical applications, drainage holes at the working face are significantly affected by mining disturbances, often resulting in problems such as casing misalignment, hole diameter reduction, and drill pipe breakage, leading to unstable drainage efficiency. The root cause lies in the lack of quantitative evaluation of the degree of overburden disturbance in existing methods, and the failure to optimize construction timing in conjunction with mining dynamics. This often results in boreholes being vulnerable to damage during periods of severe overburden deformation. Therefore, a method is needed that comprehensively considers geological conditions and mining disturbance factors to predict the risk of deformation and damage to drainage holes, quantitatively reveal the intensity and stabilization time of formation disturbances, thereby guiding borehole structure design and construction sequence optimization, and improving drainage efficiency and stability. Summary of the Invention

[0004] To address the aforementioned technical shortcomings, the purpose of this invention is to provide an elongated self-locking seismic and deformation-resistant friction pendulum bearing, which is used to quantify the degree of ground disturbance and stabilization time, guide the structural design and construction sequence optimization of drainage holes, and avoid problems such as easy deformation and damage of drainage holes.

[0005] To solve the above-mentioned technical problems, the present invention adopts the following technical solution: This invention provides a method for predicting the deformation and damage risk of surface drainage holes for high-level delamination water accumulation in coal mines, comprising the following steps: S1: Geological risk assessment, specifically: S11: Obtain the engineering geological parameters of the overlying rock of the target working face. The engineering geological parameters of the overlying rock include at least the coal seam thickness, coal seam burial depth, distance from the top of the coal seam to the bottom of the drainage hole, and the physical and mechanical parameters of each rock layer. S12: Based on the physical and mechanical parameters of each rock stratum, the lithology difference index between adjacent rock strata penetrated by the drainage hole is calculated, and the disturbance influence level of each rock stratum section on the drainage hole is divided according to the lithology difference index; based on the proportion of each disturbance influence level in the drainage hole and its preset weight, the lithology difference comprehensive index of the drainage hole is calculated; S13: Combined with the preset geological index weight coefficient, the geological hazard score of the target working face drainage hole is calculated, and the working face geological hazard zoning map is drawn based on the geological hazard score; S2: Mining risk assessment, specifically: S21: Obtain the dynamic monitoring data in the mining process of the target working face, the dynamic monitoring data at least including water level monitoring data, microseismic monitoring data and support resistance monitoring data; S22: Calculate the water level daily decline rate index based on the water level monitoring data, calculate the microseismic daily risk index based on the microseismic monitoring data, and calculate the mine pressure daily abnormal index based on the support resistance monitoring data; S23: Based on the numerical size of the water level daily decline rate index, the microseismic daily risk index and the mine pressure daily abnormal index and its preset threshold, the instantaneous risk level of each mining index is determined; based on the instantaneous risk level of each mining index, the working face mining hazard zoning map is drawn; S3: Comprehensive risk zoning: superimpose the working face geological hazard zoning map and the working face mining hazard zoning map to generate the working face drainage hole deformation and damage risk comprehensive zoning map, and realize the spatial classification management of risk level.

[0006] Preferably, in step S12, the calculation formula of lithology difference index W is: ; Wherein, is the elastic modulus (GPa) of the adjacent upper and lower rock strata; is the tensile strength (MPa) of the adjacent upper and lower rock strata.

[0007] The calculation formula of rock stratum tensile strength is: ; Wherein, is the elastic modulus of rock stratum i, GPa; is the thickness of the first i rock stratum, m; is the specific gravity of the first i rock stratum, KN / m 3 ; i=1, 2, 3…n; is the internal friction angle, °; C is the cohesion of rock stratum, MPa.

[0008] Preferably, in step S12, the disturbance influence level is divided according to the lithology difference index, specifically: If W ≤ 0.3, it is determined to be a low disturbance effect; If 0.3 < W ≤ 0.6, it is judged as a moderate disturbance effect; If W > 0.6, it is determined to be a strong disturbance.

[0009] Preferably, in step S12, a weighted summation method is used to calculate the comprehensive index CI of lithological differences in extraction holes by combining the proportion and weight of each level: in, For the number of low disturbance segments, For the number of disturbance segments, The number of strong disturbance segments is assigned a weight, while low disturbance segments are assigned a weight. =1, assigning weights to moderate perturbations. =2, strong perturbation assigns weight =4.

[0010] Preferably, in step S13, the formula for calculating the geological hazard score is: ; in, , , , , where M is the weighting coefficient of geological indicators, H is the coal seam thickness, D is the distance from the top of the coal seam to the bottom of the borehole, and CI is the comprehensive index of lithological differences.

[0011] Preferably, in step S22, the formula for calculating the daily microseismic risk index I is: ; in, , These are weighting coefficients, determined based on actual engineering conditions, and are typically... , ; , These are the total energy on day i and the maximum daily total energy during the working face mining period, respectively. , These represent the total number of times on day i and the maximum daily total number of times during the mining period at the working face, respectively.

[0012] Preferably, in step S22, the formula for calculating the daily anomaly index Z of mine pressure is: ; in, For the first Heavenly The resistance of the support; For the first Average resistance of each support during mining; For the first The maximum resistance of each support during mining.

[0013] Preferably, in step S23, determining the instantaneous risk level of each mining indicator specifically includes: A threshold is set for the daily rate of water level decline index V. When V ≤ -0.3, it is considered high risk; when -0.3 < V ≤ -0.1, it is considered medium risk; and when V > -0.1, it is considered low risk. A threshold is set for the microseismic daily risk index I. When I > 0.3, it is considered high risk; when 0.1 < I ≤ 0.3, it is considered medium risk; and when I ≤ 0.1, it is considered low risk. A threshold is set for the daily abnormal index Z of the mine pressure. When Z > 0.3, it is considered high risk; when 0 < Z ≤ 0.3, it is considered medium risk; and when Z ≤ 0, it is considered low risk.

[0014] Preferably, in step S23, drawing the working face mining hazard zoning map specifically involves: The instantaneous risk level of each mining indicator is quantified into a risk value, and the summation is used to obtain the comprehensive mining risk value. Based on the magnitude of the comprehensive mining risk value, the working face is divided into four mining risk level zones: safe, relatively safe, relatively dangerous, and dangerous, and a zoning map is generated.

[0015] Beneficial Effects: This technical solution aims to address the technical challenge of low drainage efficiency and poor stability in the treatment of high-level overburden water accumulation in coal mines, where surface drainage holes are prone to casing breakage and deformation due to mining disturbances. Existing methods lack quantitative evaluation of the degree of overburden disturbance and fail to optimize drilling and maintenance timing based on mining dynamics. Specifically, this solution offers the following advantages: 1. It has achieved quantitative risk prediction by constructing a comprehensive lithological difference index and dynamic mining indicators, thus overcoming the limitations of traditional experience-based judgment. 2. A comprehensive evaluation model coupling geological static conditions and mining dynamic disturbances was established, which can identify the stage of severe overburden deformation and guide construction to avoid the period of high disturbance. 3. A spatialized risk zoning map has been created, supporting differentiated structural design and operation and maintenance sequence optimization for extraction and drainage holes; 4. It improves the reliability of drainage projects and the effectiveness of water hazard prevention, and has the advantages of strong applicability and can be promoted to coal mines with different geological conditions. Attached Figure Description

[0016] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0017] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of high-level delamination water accumulation in existing coal mines in the background art of this invention; Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of an existing ground extraction hole structure in the background art of this invention; Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the existing extraction borehole layout in the background art of this invention; Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the planar arrangement of existing extraction holes in the background art of this invention; Figure 5 This is a geological hazard zoning result diagram of the working face provided in an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 6 This is a risk zoning result diagram of the mining indicators provided in an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0018] The technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0019] This embodiment provides a method for predicting the deformation and damage risk of surface drainage holes for high-level delamination and water accumulation in coal mines, specifically including the following steps: S1: Collect geological condition indicators of the working face, calculate the geological indicator values, establish a hierarchical structure model for geological evaluation of the working face based on the weighting coefficients of the geological indicator values ​​of the drainage holes, and calculate the geological risk score for deformation and damage of the drainage holes.

[0020] After clarifying the geological conditions of the working face, the geological risks of deformation and damage at the location of the drainage holes in the working face before mining are assessed by a hierarchical analysis method, laying the foundation for subsequent mining impact analysis, thereby realizing the transformation from "passive response" to "proactive prevention".

[0021] S11: The engineering geological conditions of the overlying rock of the working face include the coal seam thickness, coal seam burial depth, distance from the top of the coal seam to the bottom of the borehole, and lithological physical and mechanical parameters.

[0022] S12: Shear stress concentration occurs at the hard-soft rock interface, making casing breakage prone to occur. The influence of interlayer slippage on the deformation and failure of the drainage hole is clarified based on the lithological difference index of the drainage hole. The formula for calculating the lithological difference index of the drainage hole near the working face is as follows: ; in, It is the elastic modulus (GPa) of the adjacent upper and lower rock strata. It is the tensile strength (MPa) of the adjacent upper and lower rock strata.

[0023] Furthermore, the formula for calculating the tensile strength of rock strata is: ; in, Let i be the elastic modulus of the rock stratum, in GPa; For the first i Thickness of the rock layer, in meters; For the first i Unit weight of rock strata, kN / m 3 i = 1, 2, 3…n; θ is the internal friction angle, °; C is the cohesion of the rock strata, MPa.

[0024] Furthermore, based on the calculated lithological difference index W, the degree of impact of deformation and damage on the drainage holes is classified: If the lithological difference index W≤0.3, it is judged as low disturbance influence. At this time, the lithological difference is small, the risk of deformation and damage of the extraction hole is low, and the casing is basically stable. If 0.3 < W ≤ 0.6, it is judged as a moderate disturbance. At this time, there is a significant difference in lithology, and there is a certain risk of deformation and damage to the drainage hole. If the lithological difference index W > 0.6, it is determined to be a strong disturbance, in which case the lithological difference is large and the risk of deformation and failure is high.

[0025] Furthermore, the proportion of each level within the extraction hole was statistically analyzed. Considering that strong disturbances contribute more to the overall disturbance risk of the extraction hole, low disturbances were assigned a weight of 1, medium disturbances were assigned a weight of 2, and strong disturbances were assigned a weight of 4.

[0026] Furthermore, using a weighted summation method, the comprehensive index (CI) of lithological differences in drainage holes is calculated by combining the proportion and weight of each level: in, For the number of low disturbance segments, For the number of disturbance segments, The number of strong disturbance segments is assigned a weight, while low disturbance segments are assigned a weight. =1, assigning weights to moderate perturbations. =2, strong perturbation assigns weight =4.

[0027] Furthermore, based on the calculated comprehensive index (CI) of lithological differences in the drainage holes, the comprehensive impact of deformation and failure of the drainage holes is classified: If the comprehensive index of lithological differences in the extraction hole is less than or equal to 1.5, it is judged as low comprehensive disturbance, with small overall lithological differences and mainly low disturbance section. If 1.5 < CI ≤ 2.5, it is judged as a medium-sized comprehensive disturbance, in which case there is a certain proportion of medium-sized disturbance segments or a small number of strong disturbance segments. If the comprehensive index of lithological differences in the extraction borehole (CI) is greater than 2.5, it is judged as a high comprehensive disturbance. At this time, the proportion of medium and strong disturbance sections is high, the lithological differences are significant, and the risk of deformation and failure is high.

[0028] S13: Receive the weighting coefficient settings for each indicator value, and establish a hierarchical structure model for geological evaluation of the working face based on the values ​​in S11; the method includes: Construct a hierarchical model based on three levels: the objective layer, the criterion layer, and the solution layer. Construct the judgment matrix: The weighted eigenvector is obtained by multiplying the elements of each row of the judgment matrix using the square root method and taking the fourth root, and then normalizing the result. ; Calculate the largest eigenvalue of the judgment matrix : in, To determine the product of the matrix and the weight vector, This is a normalized weight vector; To verify whether the values ​​of each parameter in the judgment matrix are reasonable, a consistency check needs to be performed on the judgment matrix. The check formula is as follows: in, To calculate the consistency index, For consistency ratio, Average random consistency index The order of the matrix is ​​4, which is taken as 4 in this case. A value of 0.1 indicates that the consistency of the judgment matrix is ​​good.

[0029] S14: The thicker the coal seam, the larger the goaf space formed after mining, the wider the overlying strata fracture range, and the more intensified the surface subsidence, leading to a significant increase in the shear stress of the strata around the drainage holes. The shallower the coal seam, the faster the strata disturbance is transmitted to the surface, and the drainage holes are more susceptible to tensile-shear combined damage. The smaller the distance between the end point of the drainage hole and the roof of the coal seam, the more significantly the direct shearing effect of the rock strata fracture and displacement is enhanced, increasing the risk of deformation and failure of the drainage hole. The geological index values ​​are weighted to calculate the geological hazard of the working face as follows: ; in, , , , For geological indicators, weighting coefficients For coal seam thickness, For coal seam burial depth, This is the distance from the top of the coal seam to the bottom of the borehole. This is the lithological difference index.

[0030] S15: Import the geological hazard assessment indicators of the working face from the AHP model into ArcGIS software. Using ArcGIS, the indicators are weighted and aggregated into a single quantitative geological hazard assessment index, i.e., the geological hazard index. Based on this index, a geological hazard zoning map of the drainage boreholes at the working face is drawn, as shown below. Figure 5 As shown.

[0031] The smaller the geological hazard index, the stronger the geological hazard. Based on the size of the geological hazard index, the geological risk zone of the working face is divided into four categories: safe, relatively safe, relatively dangerous, and dangerous. The zoning thresholds are set at equal intervals of 0.1, 0, and -0.1, respectively.

[0032] Furthermore, step S2 includes: S21: Obtain the water level elevation, total daily energy of microseismic events, total daily number of microseismic events, and support resistance during the mining process at the working face.

[0033] S22: Calculate the daily water level decline rate index based on water level monitoring data, calculate the daily microseismic risk index based on microseismic monitoring data, and calculate the daily mine pressure anomaly index based on support resistance monitoring data; S221: Calculate the daily rate of water level decline during mining operations based on the water level elevation of long observation holes during the mining process. Where n is the number of water level observation wells, Let the water level of the j-th observation well be on day i+1. Let be the water level of the j-th observation well on day i.

[0034] Furthermore, based on the working face advance distance and the daily water level drop rate, and through statistical characteristic analysis of the daily water level drop rate, combined with outlier judgment criteria, the following threshold divisions and partitions can be performed: If V ≤ -0.3, the water level drops extremely quickly, far exceeding normal fluctuations, indicating high risk; if -0.3 < V ≤ -0.1, the water level drops relatively quickly, exceeding the normal fluctuation range, indicating medium risk; if V ≥ -0.1, the water level drops slowly or rises, remaining within a controllable fluctuation range, indicating low risk.

[0035] S222: Based on the total daily energy and total daily frequency of microseismic events at the working face, calculate the daily microseismic risk index during mining operations: ; in, , These are weighting coefficients, determined based on actual engineering conditions, and are typically... , ; , These are the total energy on day i and the maximum daily total energy during the working face mining period, respectively. , These represent the total number of times on day i and the maximum daily total number of times during the mining period at the working face, respectively.

[0036] Furthermore, based on the working face advance distance and the daily microseismic risk index, and through statistical characteristic analysis of the daily microseismic risk index combined with outlier judgment criteria, the following threshold divisions and zones can be established: If I > 0.3, the overburden movement is strong and the microseismic activity is significantly enhanced, which is high risk; if 0.1 < I ≤ 0.3, the microseismic activity is within the normal fluctuation range, which is medium risk; if I ≤ 0.1, the microseismic activity is weak, which is low risk.

[0037] S223: Calculate the daily anomaly index of mine pressure during mining based on the resistance of each support: ; in, For the first Heavenly The resistance of the support; For the first Average resistance of each support during mining; For the first The maximum resistance of each support during mining.

[0038] Furthermore, based on the working face advance distance and the daily anomaly index of mine pressure, and through statistical characteristic analysis of the daily anomaly index of mine pressure, combined with the outlier judgment criteria, the following threshold divisions and zones can be made: If Z≤0, the overall support resistance is lower than the average level during its own mining period, corresponding to low risk; if 0<Z≤0.3, there is some abnormality in the mine pressure but the degree is moderate, corresponding to medium risk; if Z>0.3, the degree of abnormality in the mine pressure is relatively high, corresponding to high risk.

[0039] S23: Based on the threshold division and zoning of mining-related index values, risk quantification is performed. The standard is no data = 0, low risk = 1, medium risk = 2, high risk = 3. The sum of the risk levels of the comprehensive mining-related indexes is used to divide the geological risk zoning of the working face into four categories: safe, relatively safe, relatively dangerous, and dangerous, according to the mining-related hazard quantification results. The zoning thresholds use an equal-interval method, with values ​​of 2, 4, and 6 respectively. A mining-related hazard zoning map of the drainage holes in the working face is drawn, as shown below. Figure 6 As shown Obviously, those skilled in the art can make various modifications and variations to this invention without departing from its spirit and scope. Therefore, if these modifications and variations fall within the scope of the claims of this invention and their equivalents, this invention also intends to include these modifications and variations.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the deformation and failure risk of surface drainage holes for high-level delamination water accumulation in coal mines, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: S1: Geological risk assessment, specifically: S11: Obtain the overburden engineering geological parameters of the target working face, including coal seam thickness, coal seam burial depth, distance from the top of the coal seam to the bottom of the drainage hole, and physical and mechanical parameters of each rock layer. S12: Based on the physical and mechanical parameters of each rock layer, calculate the lithological difference index between adjacent rock layers through which the drainage hole passes, and classify the disturbance impact level of each rock layer segment on the drainage hole according to the lithological difference index; based on the proportion of each disturbance impact level in the drainage hole and its preset weight, calculate the comprehensive lithological difference index of the drainage hole. S13: Combine the preset geological index weighting coefficients to calculate the geological hazard score of the drainage hole in the target working face, and draw a geological hazard zoning map of the working face based on the geological hazard score. S2: Risk assessment of mining activities, specifically: S21: Obtain dynamic monitoring data during the mining process of the target working face, wherein the dynamic monitoring data includes at least water level monitoring data, microseismic monitoring data and support resistance monitoring data; S22: Calculate the daily water level decline rate index based on water level monitoring data, calculate the daily microseismic risk index based on microseismic monitoring data, and calculate the daily mine pressure anomaly index based on support resistance monitoring data; S23: Based on the values ​​of the daily water level drop rate index, the daily microseismic risk index, and the daily mine pressure anomaly index, and their preset thresholds, determine the instantaneous risk level of each mining activity index; based on the instantaneous risk level of each mining activity index, draw a mining activity hazard zoning map of the working face. S3: Comprehensive Risk Zoning: The geological hazard zoning map of the working face is overlaid with the mining hazard zoning map of the working face to generate a comprehensive zoning map of the deformation and damage risk of the drainage holes of the working face, so as to realize the spatial hierarchical management of risk levels.

2. The method for predicting the deformation and failure risk of surface drainage holes for high-level delamination water accumulation in coal mines according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S12, the formula for calculating the lithological difference index W is: ； in, It is the elastic modulus (GPa) of the adjacent upper and lower rock strata. It is the tensile strength (MPa) of the adjacent upper and lower rock strata. The formula for calculating the tensile strength of rock strata is: ； in, Let i be the elastic modulus of the rock stratum, in GPa; For the first i Thickness of the rock layer, in meters; For the first i Unit weight of rock strata, kN / m 3 i = 1, 2, 3…n; θ is the internal friction angle, °; C is the cohesion of the rock strata, MPa.

3. The method for predicting the deformation and failure risk of surface drainage holes for high-level delamination water accumulation in coal mines according to claim 2, characterized in that, In step S12, the disturbance impact level is classified according to the lithological difference index as follows: If W ≤ 0.3, it is determined to be a low disturbance effect; If 0.3 < W ≤ 0.6, it is judged as a moderate disturbance effect; If W > 0.6, it is determined to be a strong disturbance.

4. The method for predicting the deformation and failure risk of surface drainage holes for high-level delamination water accumulation in coal mines according to claim 3, characterized in that, In step S12, a weighted summation method is used to calculate the comprehensive index CI of lithological differences in drainage holes by combining the proportion and weight of each level: in, For the number of low disturbance segments, For the number of disturbance segments, The number of strong disturbance segments is assigned a weight, while the number of low disturbance segments is assigned a weight. =1, assigning weights to moderate perturbations. =2, strong perturbation assigns weight =4.

5. The method for predicting the deformation and failure risk of surface drainage holes for high-level delamination water accumulation in coal mines according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S13, the formula for calculating the geological hazard score is as follows: ； in, , , , , where M is the weighting coefficient of geological indicators, H is the coal seam thickness, D is the distance from the top of the coal seam to the bottom of the borehole, and CI is the comprehensive index of lithological differences.

6. The method for predicting the deformation and failure risk of surface drainage holes for high-level delamination water accumulation in coal mines according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S22, the formula for calculating the daily microseismic risk index I is as follows: ； in, , These are weighting coefficients, determined based on actual engineering conditions, and are typically... , ; , These are the total energy on day i and the maximum daily total energy during the working face mining period, respectively. , These represent the total number of times on day i and the maximum daily total number of times during the mining period at the working face, respectively.

7. The method for predicting the deformation and failure risk of surface drainage holes for high-level delamination water accumulation in coal mines according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S22, the formula for calculating the daily anomaly index Z of mine pressure is: ； in, For the first Heavenly The resistance of the support; For the first Average resistance of each support during mining; For the first The maximum resistance of each support during mining.

8. The method for predicting the deformation and failure risk of surface drainage holes for high-level delamination water accumulation in coal mines according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S23, determining the instantaneous risk level of each mining indicator specifically includes: A threshold is set for the daily rate of water level decline index V. When V ≤ -0.3, it is considered high risk; when -0.3 < V ≤ -0.1, it is considered medium risk; and when V > -0.1, it is considered low risk. A threshold is set for the microseismic daily risk index I. When I > 0.3, it is considered high risk; when 0.1 < I ≤ 0.3, it is considered medium risk; and when I ≤ 0.1, it is considered low risk. A threshold is set for the daily abnormal index Z of the mine pressure. When Z > 0.3, it is considered high risk; when 0 < Z ≤ 0.3, it is considered medium risk; and when Z ≤ 0, it is considered low risk.

9. The method for predicting the deformation and failure risk of surface drainage holes for high-level delamination water accumulation in coal mines according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S23, drawing the working face mining hazard zoning map specifically involves: The instantaneous risk level of each mining indicator is quantified into a risk value, and the summation is used to obtain the comprehensive mining risk value. Based on the magnitude of the comprehensive mining risk value, the working face is divided into four mining risk level zones: safe, relatively safe, relatively dangerous, and dangerous, and a zoning map is generated.

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