Recovery amount prediction system and recovery amount prediction method

Abstract

To provide a recovery amount prediction system that predicts the amount of components to be recovered.SOLUTION: A recovery amount prediction system includes a plurality of image forming apparatuses 100 each including a unit that is periodically replaced and a server 302, which are communicably connected with each other. The image forming apparatuses 100 each transmit a remaining usable period of the unit to the server 902. The server 902 calculates predicted recovery dates for the respective units in the plurality of image forming apparatuses 100 based on the remaining usable periods acquired from the image forming apparatuses 100, and predicts the amount of units to be recovered in a predetermined period based on the predicted recovery dates of the respective units in the image forming apparatuses 100.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a recycling technique for parts that constitute electrical products. [Background technology]

[0002] When electrical appliances such as electronic devices and home appliances reach the end of their life after being used in the market, they are collected, disassembled, separated into materials such as resin and iron, and crushed, melted, and recycled. In this way, efforts are being made to effectively utilize resources and reduce the environmental burden. As a further effort against environmental issues, there is a demand to reduce the environmental burden more than by recycling by reusing the electrical appliances themselves and the parts that make up the electrical appliances. Patent Document 1 discloses a system that distinguishes between reusable parts and parts that need to be replaced when collecting electrical appliances in order to reuse as many parts as possible. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 10-216689 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] The number of reusable parts cannot be determined until the parts are actually removed from the collected electrical appliances. This makes it difficult to predict the amount of reusable parts that will be returned to the remanufacturing plant in the future. This makes it difficult to plan the manufacture of new parts for parts with long delivery numbers, making it difficult to plan the production of the entire electrical appliance. As a result, there is a possibility of overproduction of parts or the suspension of production of electrical appliances due to a shortage of parts.

[0005] Carbon dioxide, which has a negative impact on the environment, is emitted in large quantities during the production of parts throughout the life cycle of an electrical appliance. Therefore, overproduction of parts has a negative impact on the environment. Overproduction of parts also leads to delays in the recovery of funds spent on manufacturing parts, causing a deterioration in cash flow. Conversely, a shortage of parts could result in the production of electrical appliances coming to a halt, leading to lost sales opportunities.

[0006] In view of the above-mentioned problems, a main object of the present invention is to provide a collection amount prediction system for predicting the amount of collected parts. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] The collection amount prediction system of the present invention is characterized in that a plurality of electrical appliances, each including a unit that is replaced periodically, are communicatively connected to a collection amount prediction device, the electrical appliances transmit the remaining usable period of the unit to the collection amount prediction device, the collection amount prediction device calculates a predicted collection date for each unit of the plurality of electrical appliances based on the remaining usable period obtained from each of the plurality of electrical appliances, and predicts the collection amount of the units to be collected at a specified time based on the predicted collection date for the unit of each of the plurality of electrical appliances. Effect of the Invention

[0008] According to the present invention, it is possible to predict the amount of reusable parts that will be collected. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0009] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is an overall configuration diagram of an image forming apparatus. [Diagram 2] FIG. [Diagram 3] FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram of a circulation regeneration system. [Figure 4] 6 is a diagram illustrating the transition of the remaining amount of toner and the number of days of use. [Diagram 5] 11 is a flowchart showing a process for predicting a collection amount. [Figure 6]11 is a flowchart showing a process for presenting a predicted value of a collection amount. [Figure 7] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating the configuration of a photosensitive drum unit. [Figure 8] FIG. [Figure 9] FIG. 13 is an illustrative diagram showing the transition of the remaining film thickness and the number of days of use. [Figure 10] FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram of a circulation regeneration system. [Figure 11] 11 is a flowchart showing a process for predicting a collection amount. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0010] An embodiment of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. In this embodiment, an image forming apparatus such as a printer, copier, or multifunction device will be described as an example of an electrical product. The image forming apparatus includes consumables that are removable and periodically replaced. These consumables are collected as reusable parts. In this embodiment, a circulation structure for the production and collection of electrical products (image forming apparatuses) including consumables (reusable parts), a method for predicting the amount of collection, and feedback of the prediction result to a production plan will be described.

[0011] 1 is a diagram showing the overall configuration of an image forming apparatus. The image forming apparatus 100 forms an image on a recording material 10 according to image information acquired from an image reading device connected to the main body or a host device such as a personal computer connected to the main body so as to be communicable therewith. The image forming apparatus 100 forms a full-color image in four colors, for example, yellow (Y), magenta (M), cyan (C), and black (K), by an electrophotographic method. The recording material 10 is a recording sheet, a plastic sheet, cloth, or the like.

[0012] The image forming apparatus 100 is of a tandem type and includes a plurality of image forming units each forming an image of a different color. In this embodiment, in order to form a full-color image of four colors, the image forming apparatus 100 includes four image forming units, namely, first, second, third, and fourth image forming units PY, PM, PC, and PK. The image forming apparatus 100 includes a transfer unit 5 having an intermediate transfer belt 51 which is an intermediate transfer body in the form of an endless belt. The intermediate transfer belt 51 rotates in the direction of the arrow in the figure and passes through the first to fourth image forming units PY, PM, PC, and PK. During that time, the images formed in the first to fourth image forming units PY, PM, PC, and PK are transferred to the intermediate transfer belt 51 in a superimposed manner. The images of each color transferred to the intermediate transfer belt 51 are transferred to a recording material 10. The image forming apparatus 100 includes a fixing device 6 which fixes the image to the recording material 10. The recording material 10 on which the image is fixed by the fixing device 6 is discharged to the outside of the image forming apparatus 100.

[0013] The configurations of the first to fourth image forming units PY, PM, PC, and PK are substantially the same except for the different developing colors. Hereinafter, unless a distinction is required, the suffixes Y, M, C, and K indicating that the elements belong to the first to fourth image forming units PY to PK will be omitted, and the image forming unit will be collectively referred to as image forming unit P.

[0014] The image forming unit P has a photosensitive drum 1 as an image carrier which is a drum-shaped photosensitive body. Along the outer periphery of the photosensitive drum 1, a charging roller 2 which is a charger, an exposure unit 3 including a laser exposure optical system, a developing unit 4, a primary transfer unit 52, and a drum cleaner 7 are arranged. A toner bottle 8 is provided corresponding to the developing unit 4. The primary transfer unit 52 is arranged so as to sandwich the photosensitive drum 1 and an intermediate transfer belt 51 therebetween.

[0015] The intermediate transfer belt 51 is wound around a plurality of rollers. A secondary transfer member 53 is provided at a position opposite one of the rollers around which the intermediate transfer belt 51 is wound, with the intermediate transfer belt 51 sandwiched therebetween.

[0016] During image formation, the surface of the rotating photosensitive drum 1 is uniformly charged by the charging roller 2. The charged surface of the photosensitive drum 1 is scanned and exposed by the exposure device 3 in accordance with image information, forming an electrostatic latent image. The electrostatic latent image formed on the photosensitive drum 1 is visualized as a toner image by the developing device 4 using toner as a developer. When the toner contained in the developing device 4 decreases due to the development process, toner is replenished from the toner bottle 8.

[0017] The toner image formed on the photosensitive drum 1 is transferred onto the intermediate transfer belt 51 at a primary transfer nip where the intermediate transfer belt 51 and the photosensitive drum 1 come into contact with each other by the action of a primary transfer bias voltage applied to a primary transfer section 52. When a four-color full-color image is formed, the toner images are transferred from each photosensitive drum 1 onto the intermediate transfer belt 51 in order starting from the image forming section PY. A multiple toner image in which the four color toner images are superimposed is formed on the intermediate transfer belt 51. The intermediate transfer belt 51 conveys the toner image it carries to a secondary transfer member 53 by rotating.

[0018] The recording material 10 is stored in a paper feed cassette 9. The recording material 10 is transported from the paper feed cassette 9 to a secondary transfer nip portion where the intermediate transfer belt 51 and secondary transfer member 53 come into contact with each other by a pickup roller, a transport roller, a registration roller, etc. At this time, the recording material 10 and the toner image on the intermediate transfer belt 51 are synchronized, and the transport timing of the recording material 10 is adjusted so that the toner image is transferred to a predetermined location on the recording material 10. The multiple toner image on the intermediate transfer belt 51 is transferred onto the recording material 10 at the secondary transfer nip portion by the action of a secondary transfer bias voltage applied to the secondary transfer member 53.

[0019] The recording material 10 onto which the toner image has been transferred is transported to the fixing device 6. The toner image transferred onto the recording material 10 is melted and mixed by being heated and pressurized by the fixing device 6, and is fixed onto the recording material 10. The recording material 10 onto which the image has been fixed is discharged outside the machine.

[0020] Any toner or other deposits remaining on the photosensitive drum 1 after the primary transfer process are collected by a drum cleaner 7. This allows the photosensitive drum 1 to be prepared for the next image forming process. Any toner or other deposits remaining on the intermediate transfer belt 51 after the secondary transfer process are removed by an intermediate transfer body cleaner 54 provided upstream of the image forming unit PY in the rotation direction of the intermediate transfer belt 51.

[0021] The image forming apparatus 100 of this embodiment is also capable of forming a monochrome or multi-color image using image forming units for a predetermined monochrome color, such as a black monochrome image, or for some of four colors.

[0022] (Recycling of consumables) The image forming apparatus 100 is equipped with units that perform various internal functions. These units are detachable from the main body of the image forming apparatus 100, have a shorter life span than the main body of the image forming apparatus 100, and are consumables that are assumed to be replaced periodically. For example, the toner bottle 8 and the photosensitive drum unit that holds the photosensitive drum 1 in the image forming apparatus 100 are detachably mounted on the image forming apparatus 100. The toner bottle 8 and the photosensitive drum unit are examples of consumables that are replaced periodically.

[0023] The remaining life of a consumable is calculated inside image forming apparatus 100. When a consumable reaches the end of its life, image forming apparatus 100 outputs a message via a user interface to prompt the user to replace the consumable. In response to this message, the user or a service technician removes the consumable from image forming apparatus 100 and replaces it with a new consumable. The removed consumable is collected by the service technician and is finally transported to a recycle factory as a reusable part to be regenerated (circulatory regeneration).

[0024] (When the consumable is toner bottle 8) The following describes circulatory regeneration when the consumable is a toner bottle 8. FIG. 2 is an external view of the toner bottle. The toner bottle 8 has a storage section 81 (also called a "container body") formed in a hollow cylindrical shape and equipped with a space for storing toner therein. A flange section 82 (also called a "non-rotating section") is provided on one end side of the longitudinal direction (the toner transport direction) of the storage section 81. A bottle memory 83 that stores various information related to the toner bottle 8 is provided on an end of the flange section 82. A gear section 84 that receives a driving force from a gear (not shown) provided in the main body of the image forming apparatus 100 is provided between the storage section 81 and the flange section 82.

[0025] When toner is supplied to the developing device 4, the toner bottle 8 rotates by the driving force received by the gear portion 84. The toner bottle 8 rotates to discharge the toner contained in the container portion 81. The discharged toner is supplied to the corresponding developing device 4 through a predetermined path.

[0026] 3 is an explanatory diagram of a circulatory recycling system that includes the production, collection, and recycling of consumables (toner bottles 8). Solid lines indicate the flow of the toner bottles 8 themselves, and dotted lines indicate the flow of information. The toner bottles 8 move in the following order: manufacturing and recycling factory 901, delivery base 903, installation site of image forming device 100, primary collection base 904, and secondary collection base 905. A collection amount prediction system is made up of multiple image forming devices 100 and server 902.

[0027] The manufacturing and recycling factory 901 manufactures new toner bottles 8 and recycles (reuses) collected used toner bottles 8. As shown in FIG. 2, a toner bottle 8 is composed of multiple parts. In the manufacturing and recycling factory 901, the multiple parts are assembled, developer (toner) is filled, and the completed toner bottles 8 are boxed. When manufacturing a new toner bottle 8, the multiple parts that make up the toner bottle 8 are assembled one by one, and toner is filled inside the storage section 81. When recycling a toner bottle 8, a used toner bottle 8 is reused as is, toner is filled inside the storage section 81, and the bottle memory 83 is rewritten. The number of times each part used in the toner bottle 8 can be reused, i.e., the remaining number of times it can be recycled, is written in the bottle memory 83. The details of the remaining number of times it can be recycled will be described later.

[0028] Toner bottles 8 manufactured in manufacturing and recycling factory 901 are shipped as products to distribution base 903 and temporarily stored at distribution base 903. Toner bottles 8 stored at distribution base 903 are delivered to the installation locations of image forming devices 100 in response to a toner bottle delivery request signal from image forming devices 100 installed in various locations or a request from a user.

[0029] Each image forming apparatus 100 is communicatively connected to a delivery base 903 and a server 902 via a network. Each image forming apparatus 100 calculates the remaining usable period of the toner bottle 8, i.e., the remaining number of days, based on operation information of the toner bottle 8, such as the frequency of use, stored internally. For example, each image forming apparatus 100 calculates the remaining usable period (remaining number of days) by subtracting the period of use based on the operation information from the usable period until a new toner bottle 8 is empty. When the calculated remaining number of days falls below a predetermined threshold, each image forming apparatus 100 transmits a consumable delivery request signal to the delivery base 903 via the network.

[0030] Each image forming apparatus 100 reads the remaining number of times that the toner bottle 8 can be played back, which is written in the bottle memory 83 of the toner bottle 8. Each image forming apparatus 100 transmits information linking the read remaining number of times that the toner bottle 8 can be played back with the remaining number of days and information on the installation location of the image forming apparatus 100 to the server 902 via the network at least once a day.

[0031] By writing the remaining number of times that can be played in the bottle memory 83 in this way, information required for predicting the amount of consumables to be collected (remaining number of times that can be played, remaining number of days, installation location information) is transmitted from a single transmission source (image forming device) to the server 902. Therefore, the server 902 does not need to link various pieces of information, and can easily process the information.

[0032] When an image is formed on the recording material 10 and all the toner in the toner bottle 8 is consumed, the empty toner bottle 8 is removed from the image forming apparatus 100 by the user, and a new toner bottle 8 is installed. The removed used toner bottle 8 is collected in a collection box installed at the user's premises. The used toner bottle 8 collected in the collection box is collected by a serviceman who visits the user's premises to perform maintenance on the image forming apparatus 100, and is transported to the primary collection base 904 as a used item.

[0033] The primary collection site 904 collects used consumables (toner bottles 8) from each image forming apparatus 100 installed within an area covering the installation locations of a plurality of image forming apparatuses 100. The primary collection site 904 temporarily stores the collected used toner bottles 8. When a predetermined amount of the stored used toner bottles 8 has accumulated, or at a predetermined timing such as a predetermined day of the week or date, the used toner bottles 8 are transported from the primary collection site 904 to the secondary collection site 905.

[0034] At the secondary collection site 905, the collected used toner bottles 8 are sorted to determine whether they are reusable. The reusable used toner bottles 8 are transported to the manufacturing and recycling factory 901. The determination as to whether they are reusable is made using the remaining number of times that they can be recycled that is written in the bottle memory 83 of the toner bottle 8. If the remaining number of times that they can be recycled is 1 or more, they are determined to be reusable. Note that, in addition to the remaining number of times that they can be recycled, the determination as to whether they can be reused may also be made using, for example, the results of visually checking whether the toner bottle 8 is damaged. If the toner bottle 8 is not damaged, it is determined that it is reusable, and if it is damaged, it is determined that it is not reusable.

[0035] Toner bottles 8 that are determined to be reusable are disassembled and cleaned to remove any remaining toner inside the container 81, then reassembled and transported to the manufacturing and recycling factory 901 as reusable parts. Toner bottles 8 that are determined to be non-reusable are disassembled and cleaned, then separated into the same resin materials. They are then crushed and re-pelletized, and the non-reusable toner bottles 8 are recycled as raw materials for resin parts.

[0036] Reusable toner bottles 8 transported from the secondary collection base 905 to the manufacturing and recycling factory 901 are refilled with toner at the manufacturing and recycling factory 901, and a new remaining number of times that they can be recycled is written to the bottle memory 83. The remaining number of times that is written is a value obtained by subtracting one from the previous remaining number of times that they can be recycled. The toner bottles 8 thus recycled are shipped to the delivery base 903, and thereafter are recycled in the same cycle until they can no longer be reused.

[0037] The server 902 predicts the date on which each toner bottle 8 will arrive at the manufacturing and recycling factory 901 as a reusable part, based on the remaining number of times that the toner bottles can be recycled, the remaining number of days, and installation location information acquired from the image forming apparatus 100. The server 902 is also a collection amount prediction device that predicts the number (collection amount) of toner bottles 8 that will be transported to the manufacturing and recycling factory 901 as reusable parts.

[0038] To operate as a collection amount prediction device, the server 902 includes an acquisition unit 9021 for acquiring information from each image forming apparatus 100, and a prediction unit 9022 for predicting the number of reusable parts (collection amount). The acquisition unit 9021 and the prediction unit 9022 may be realized by a CPU (Central Processing Unit) executing a predetermined control program, or may be realized by hardware. The server 902 may be installed in the manufacturing and recycling factory 901, or may be installed elsewhere.

[0039] The remaining number of possible playback times, the method of predicting the remaining number of days, and the installation location information will be described in detail below.

[0040] Remaining play count The toner bottle 8 receives a driving force for rotation from the image forming apparatus 100 via the gear portion 84, and rotates by this driving force to discharge the toner contained in the container portion 81. The number of rotations required to discharge all of the toner filled inside the container portion 81, i.e., the discharge rotation number, is a predetermined value according to the mechanism of the toner bottle 8. The remaining number of times that can be recycled that is given to a new toner bottle 8 when it is manufactured is determined by the limit number of rotations and the discharge rotation number that are preset when the toner bottle 8 is designed. The limit number of rotations is the number of rotations until the toner bottle 8 becomes unreusable. Specifically, the remaining number of times that can be recycled is expressed by the following formula. Note that values ​​after the decimal point are rounded down. (Remaining playable times) = (Limited number of rotations / Number of rotations discharged) - 1

[0041] As described above, when a used and collected toner bottle 8 is refilled with toner and recycled, the remaining number of times that can be recycled is decremented by one and written to the bottle memory 83. By writing the remaining number of times that can be recycled, it becomes possible to select toner bottles 8 that have been repeatedly recycled and are no longer reusable. The prediction unit 9022 can more accurately predict the amount of reusable toner bottles to be collected by excluding the remaining number of days for toner bottles that are not reused from the prediction of the collection amount.

[0042] - Remaining days forecast Fig. 4 is an example diagram showing the transition of the remaining amount of toner inside the storage unit 81 of the toner bottle 8 and the number of days of use. The horizontal axis shows the number of days (number of days of use) that have passed since the start date of use of the toner bottle 8, and the vertical axis shows the remaining amount of toner inside the storage unit 81 of the toner bottle 8. The graph in Fig. 4 shows the transition (change) of the remaining amount of toner on a daily basis by subtracting the amount of toner used per day from the initial amount of toner (day 0). Fig. 4 shows an example of predicting the day when the toner will run out from the toner bottle 8 (i.e., the day when the remaining amount of toner will be 0) a predetermined period of time has passed since the start of use of the toner bottle 8 (here, 70 days have passed).

[0043] Specifically, the image forming apparatus 100 predicts the day when the toner will run out from the toner bottle 8 based on the remaining toner amount 70 days after the start of use, the average toner usage amount in the past one day, and the variation in the usage amount. The remaining toner amount 70 days after the start of use, the average toner usage amount in the past one day, and the variation in the usage amount become the operation information of the toner bottle 8. In this embodiment, the prediction results obtained are that the toner in the toner bottle 8 will run out in 48 days (118 days from the start of use) at the shortest, 105 days (175 days from the start of use) at the longest, and 77 days (147 days from the start of use) at the median. That is, the number of days (remaining days) until the toner in the toner bottle 8 runs out is predicted to be 48 days at the shortest, 105 days at the longest, and 77 days at the median.

[0044] In this way, when multiple predicted values ​​are obtained as the prediction result of the remaining days of the toner bottle 8, any one of them may be adopted as the predicted value of the remaining days. In addition, the remaining days used for predicting the collection amount may be a value different from the remaining days that is the criterion for outputting the delivery request signal for the toner bottle 8 described above.

[0045] At the beginning of use of the image forming apparatus 100, the accuracy of estimating the average toner usage per day may be low. For this reason, in this embodiment, the timing for starting to predict the remaining days of the toner bottle 8 is preset to the timing when 70 days have passed since the start date of use of the image forming apparatus 100. The timing for starting to predict the remaining days can be set to a predetermined timing. Furthermore, the prediction of the remaining days may be performed periodically (e.g., every second) or irregularly (e.g., every time an image is formed or every time an image of one page is formed). In this way, by repeating the prediction of the remaining days, it becomes possible to predict the remaining days more accurately for a user whose usage of the image forming apparatus 100 changes from day to day, based on the characteristics of the usage.

[0046] Location information The installation location information transmitted from image forming apparatus 100 to server 902 is used to calculate the number of days until used and collected toner bottles 8 are transported to manufacturing and recycling factory 901. Specifically, server 902 calculates the number of days based on the distance from the installation location of image forming apparatus 100 indicated by the installation location information to manufacturing and recycling factory 901 via primary collection site 904 and secondary collection site 905. Alternatively, server 902 may calculate the number of days based on past performance.

[0047] -Recovery volume forecast and production planning The prediction unit 9022 predicts the amount of used toner bottles 8 to be collected based on the remaining number of times that can be recycled, the remaining number of days, and the installation location information. In addition, based on the predicted amount of collection, a production plan for the entire product, including new products and recycled products, is made.

[0048] FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing the process of predicting the collected amount. The server 902 acquires information including the remaining number of times that can be recycled, the remaining number of days, and installation location information from the image forming apparatus 100 through the acquisition unit 9021 (S101). The server 902 determines whether the remaining number of times that can be recycled is 1 or more through the prediction unit 9022 (S102). If the remaining number of times that can be recycled is less than 1 (S102: N), the prediction unit 9022 excludes the toner bottle 8 from the prediction target (S105). If the remaining number of times that can be recycled is 1 or more (S102: Y), the prediction unit 9022 calculates the transportation number from the installation location information of the toner bottle 8 (S103). The prediction unit 9022 calculates the predicted collection date by adding the calculated transportation number to the remaining number of days of the toner bottle 8 (S104).

[0049] The server 902 can calculate the predicted collection time of the toner bottles 8 and the predicted collection amount at a specified time by using the prediction unit 9022 to calculate the predicted collection date for all toner bottles 8 for which information is sent from the image forming apparatus 100. The predicted collection amount varies depending on whether the shortest, median, or longest remaining number of days is used. The predicted collection amount may be a value calculated using any of the remaining numbers of days, or a value calculated from these may be multiplied by a specified coefficient. The predicted collection amount is constantly updated using information acquired from the image forming apparatus 100.

[0050] A method for formulating a production plan based on a predicted value of the collection amount will be described. The production amount of toner bottles is determined in advance based on the consumption trend in the market and the transition in the number of installed image forming apparatuses 100. The production amount of toner bottles is also determined for each month. As an example, a case where 30,000 toner bottles are produced in February will be described.

[0051] If recycling, which reuses used products, is not performed, the production volume of toner bottles 8 and the number of parts required for toner bottles 8 are the same. For example, if the production volume is 30,000 bottles, the number of parts ordered will also be 30,000. However, it generally takes time from ordering to delivery of parts. In order to meet production in February, each part is ordered, for example, 30 days in advance, taking into account the lead time from ordering to delivery.

[0052] Normally, by placing an order 30 days in advance, the parts necessary for production in February are secured, and there is no surplus or shortage of parts. However, when recycling toner bottles 8, reusable toner bottles 8 are returned from the market during the 30 days between ordering and delivery. For example, if 10,000 reusable toner bottles 8 are returned during the 30 days between ordering and delivery, there will be 20,000 new toner bottles 8, and 20,000 new parts will be required.

[0053] The production volume of new toner bottles 8 required changes depending on the number of toner bottles 8 recycled in this way. Accordingly, the number of parts required for new products also changes. Therefore, unless the order amount of each part is changed according to the amount of collected toner bottles 8, there is a risk of excess inventory or parts shortages.

[0054] Carbon dioxide, which has a negative impact on the environment, is emitted in large quantities during the production of parts, even during the entire life cycle of a product. Therefore, overproduction of parts has a negative impact on the environment. In addition, it is possible that cash flow will worsen due to delays in recovering the funds spent on parts manufacturing. On the other hand, if there is a shortage of parts, production will come to a halt, resulting in lost sales opportunities.

[0055] For this reason, it is important for the part purchaser to know the number of toner bottles 8 that are scheduled to be collected for recycling. Fig. 6 is a flowchart showing a process for presenting a predicted value of the collection amount.

[0056] The server 902 acquires the lead time from ordering the parts to delivery from the part orderer (S201). The orderer, for example, connects a terminal device provided in the manufacturing and recycling factory 901 to the server 902 and inputs the lead time from the terminal device to transmit the lead time information to the server 902. The server 902 counts the quantity of reusable toner bottles 8 returned to the manufacturing and recycling factory 901 from the time the lead time is acquired to the part delivery date by the prediction unit 9022 (S202). The server 902 calculates and outputs a predicted value of the collected amount of reusable toner bottles 8 returned to the manufacturing and recycling factory 901 from the counted quantity by the prediction unit 9022 (S203). The predicted value is output by, for example, displaying it on the display of the terminal device into which the orderer input the lead time.

[0057] For example, if the planned production quantity for next month is 30,000 bottles and the lead time for parts is 30 days, the prediction unit 9022 outputs a predicted number (20,000 bottles in this case) of reusable toner bottles 8 to be returned to the manufacturing and recycling factory 901 within 30 days from the present time. The purchaser will order 10,000 parts, calculated by subtracting the predicted number from the planned production quantity, as new parts. This makes it possible to prevent excess or shortage of parts. As a result, a production plan can be made for the entire product, including recycled and new parts, without any excess or shortage of parts.

[0058] (If the consumable is the photosensitive drum unit) A case where the photosensitive drum unit is circulated and regenerated will be described below. Fig. 7 is a configuration diagram of the photosensitive drum unit. Fig. 8 is a cross-sectional view of the photosensitive drum unit.

[0059] The photosensitive drum unit 11 includes a photosensitive frame 111 that rotatably supports the photosensitive drum 1. The photosensitive drum 1 rotates about a drum axis by a driving force transmitted through a photosensitive coupling 112 provided at one end. A drum memory 116 is provided on an end surface of the photosensitive drum unit 11.

[0060] A charging roller 2 that charges the surface of the photosensitive drum 1 to a uniform potential is disposed within the photosensitive drum unit 11. A cleaning roller 113 for cleaning the charging roller 2 is provided at a position separate from the position where the photosensitive drum 1 contacts the charging roller 2. The drum cleaner 7 has a cleaning blade 114 that scrapes off toner remaining on the surface of the photosensitive drum 1 without being transferred to the intermediate transfer belt 51, and a recovery conveying screw 115 that conveys the scraped off residual toner to the outside of the photosensitive drum unit 11.

[0061] In the photosensitive drum unit 11, the number of times that the cleaning blade 114 can be reused is smaller than the other parts. The reason for this will be explained.

[0062] A non-conductive thin film is formed on the surface of the photosensitive drum 1. The thin film on the surface of the photosensitive drum 1 is gradually worn away by friction with the cleaning blade 114 that scrapes off the residual toner. When the thickness of the thin film falls below a certain value, problems occur in image formation. Therefore, the remaining thickness of the film is converted into the life of the photosensitive drum unit 11. The number of remaining days is calculated from the remaining thickness of the film and the daily decrease in film thickness.

[0063] FIG. 9 is an illustrative diagram showing the transition of the remaining thickness of the thin film on the surface of the photosensitive drum 1 and the number of days of use. The horizontal axis shows the number of days (number of days of use) that have passed since the start of use of the photosensitive drum 1, and the vertical axis shows the remaining thickness of the film on the surface of the photosensitive drum. The graph in FIG. 9 shows the transition (change) of the daily film thickness by subtracting the amount of reduction in the thin film per day from the initial film thickness (day 0). FIG. 9 shows an example of predicting the day when the film thickness will be below a certain value (below 20 μm) 80 days after the start of use of the photosensitive drum 1.

[0064] Specifically, the image forming apparatus 100 predicts the day on which the film thickness will be equal to or less than a certain value (20 [μm] or less) based on the film thickness of the thin film of the photosensitive drum 1 80 days after the start of use of the photosensitive drum 1 and the variation in the average daily reduction amount in the past. In this embodiment, the prediction results show that the film thickness will be equal to or less than a certain value in 80 days (160 days from the start of use) at the shortest, 140 days (220 days from the start of use) at the longest, and 110 days (190 days from the start of use) at the median. That is, the number of days (remaining days) until the film thickness of the thin film of the photosensitive drum 1 will be equal to or less than a certain value is predicted to be 80 days at the shortest, 140 days at the longest, and 110 days at the median.

[0065] The amount of film thickness reduction is mainly determined by the rotation time of the photosensitive drum 1. Since the photosensitive drum 1 rotates during image formation, the rotation time of the photosensitive drum 1 can be converted into the number of images printed. The number of printed sheets is counted based on one A4 sheet of paper. When an image is printed on an A3 sheet of paper, it is counted as two sheets printed. In other words, the amount of film thickness reduction can be converted into the number of printed sheets. The image forming apparatus 100 transmits the calculated remaining number of days to the server 902.

[0066] When the cleaning blade 114 rubs against the surface of the photosensitive drum 1, the cleaning blade 114 also wears down slightly. When the cleaning blade 114 wears down, its ability to scrape off the remaining toner on the surface of the photosensitive drum 1 decreases. As a result, the remaining toner cannot be scraped off eventually, causing image defects.

[0067] For this reason, the life of the cleaning blade 114 is longer than that of the photosensitive drum 1, but shorter than that of other parts such as the photosensitive drum frame 111 (these other parts will be referred to as "general parts" hereinafter). Since the life information of the cleaning blade 114 can be converted into the number of printed sheets like the photosensitive drum 1, it is stored in the drum memory 116 as the remaining number of printable sheets. The remaining number of printable sheets is calculated from the limit number of printable sheets preset when the cleaning blade 114 was designed and the accumulated number of printable sheets, which is the number of sheets actually printed. The limit number of printable sheets is the number of printable sheets until the ability of the cleaning blade 114 to scrape off the remaining toner is reduced to such an extent that image defects occur. Specifically, the remaining number of printable sheets is calculated by the following formula. (Remaining printable number of sheets) = (Limited number of printed sheets) - (Total number of printed sheets)

[0068] The remaining number of times that a general part can be recycled, which is given when a new part is manufactured, is determined by the limit number of prints of the general part, which is preset when the photosensitive drum unit 11 is designed, and the number of prints (number of sheets of film thickness consumed) until the film thickness of the thin film of the photosensitive drum 1 is consumed. The limit number of prints of a general part is the number of prints until the operation of the general part affects the function of the photosensitive drum unit 11. Specifically, the remaining number of times that a general part can be recycled is expressed by the following formula. (Remaining number of times that can be recycled) = (Limited number of prints for general parts / Number of sheets that have been used) - 1

[0069] The above-mentioned lifespan information is given to the cleaning blade 114 and the general parts individually. Each lifespan information is written in the drum memory 116 when the photosensitive drum unit 11 is manufactured in the manufacturing and remanufacturing factory 901.

[0070] As a result, during repeated cyclical regeneration, recycled products are produced in three ways: by replacing only the photosensitive drum 1, by replacing the photosensitive drum 1 and the cleaning blade 114, and by replacing general parts.

[0071] Furthermore, when only the cleaning blade 114 is reused, only the cleaning blade 114 is sent from the secondary collection site 905 to the manufacturing and recycling factory 901. In this case, the cleaning blade 114 is separated from the drum memory 116 that stores the remaining number of printable sheets. As a result, the remaining number of printable sheets of the cleaning blade 114 cannot be determined as it is, and the remaining number of printable sheets to be newly written to the drum memory 116 when the cleaning blade 114 is recycled by the manufacturing and recycling factory 901 becomes unknown.

[0072] To avoid this, individual identification information is engraved on the cleaning blade 114. The individual identification information of the cleaning blade 114 is recorded in the drum memory 116. The image forming apparatus 100 reads the remaining printable number of the cleaning blade 114 from the drum memory 116, and updates the remaining printable number according to the number of printed sheets each time printing is performed. The image forming apparatus 100 links the remaining printable number to the individual identification information of the cleaning blade 114 and transmits it to the server 902.

[0073] Which parts of the photosensitive drum unit 11 are judged to be reusable parts is determined based on life information written in the drum memory 116 of the photosensitive drum unit 11 collected at the secondary collection site 905. The life information is the remaining number of printable sheets of the cleaning blade 114, the remaining number of times that general parts can be recycled, and the number of sheets of film thickness consumed. The remaining number of printable sheets and the number of sheets of film thickness consumed are compared, and the reusable parts are judged based on the comparison result and the remaining number of times that general parts can be recycled.

[0074] If the remaining number of printable sheets is greater than the number of sheets that have been used up, and the remaining number of times that the general parts can be recycled is 1 or more, only the photosensitive drum 1 is replaced. In this case, only the photosensitive drum 1 is removed from the photosensitive drum unit 11 at the secondary collection site 905 and processed as a non-recyclable product. The cleaning blade 114 and other general parts are sent to the manufacturing and recycling factory 901 as reusable parts.

[0075] At the manufacturing and recycling factory 901, the remaining number of times that the general parts can be recycled is read from the drum memory 116 of the delivered photosensitive drum unit 11. After that, a new photosensitive drum 1 is attached to the photosensitive drum unit 11 and the photosensitive drum unit 11 is recycled, and the new remaining number of times that the general parts can be recycled is written to the drum memory 116. The remaining number of times that the general parts can be recycled that is written is a value obtained by subtracting one from the remaining number of times that the general parts can be recycled that was read when the general parts arrived at the manufacturing and recycling factory 901. Also, the remaining number of pages that can be printed on the photosensitive drum 1 is the limit number of pages that can be printed.

[0076] If the remaining number of printable sheets is less than the number of sheets that have been used up, and the remaining number of times that the general parts can be recycled is 1 or more, the photosensitive drum 1 and the cleaning blade 114 are replaced. In this case, the photosensitive drum 1 and the cleaning blade 114 are removed from the photosensitive drum unit 11 at the secondary collection site 905, and are processed as non-recyclable items. The other general parts are sent to the manufacturing and recycling factory 901 as reusable parts.

[0077] At the manufacturing and recycling factory 901, the remaining number of times that general parts can be recycled is read from the drum memory 116 of the delivered photosensitive drum unit 11. After that, the photosensitive drum unit 11 is recycled by attaching a new photosensitive drum 1 and cleaning blade 114, and new life information is written to the drum memory 116. The remaining number of pages that can be printed of the cleaning blade 114 that is written at this time is the limit number of pages that can be printed. The remaining number of pages that can be printed of the photosensitive drum 1 is the limit number of pages that can be printed. The remaining number of pages that can be recycled of general parts is a value obtained by subtracting one from the remaining number of pages that was read when the general parts arrived at the manufacturing and recycling factory 901. In addition, individual identification information of the newly attached cleaning blade 114 is written to the drum memory 116.

[0078] When the remaining number of printable sheets is greater than the number of sheets that have been used up, and the remaining number of times that the general parts can be recycled is 0, the parts other than the cleaning blade 114 are replaced. In this case, only the cleaning blade 114 is removed from the photosensitive drum unit 11 at the secondary collection site 905, and is sent to the manufacturing and recycling factory 901 as a reusable part. The other parts are treated as non-recyclable items.

[0079] The manufacturing and recycling factory 901 reads the individual information engraved on the delivered cleaning blade 114. The manufacturing and recycling factory 901 obtains the remaining printable number corresponding to the read individual identification information from the remaining printable number of the cleaning blade 114 transmitted from the image forming apparatus 100 to the server 902. When the photosensitive drum unit 11 is remanufactured by assembling a new photosensitive drum 1 and general parts, new life information and the individual identification information of the assembled cleaning blade 114 are written in the drum memory 116. The remaining printable number of the cleaning blade 114 written at that time is the remaining printable number corresponding to the individual identification information of the cleaning blade 114 obtained from the server 902. Furthermore, the remaining remanufacturable number of times of the general parts is the remaining remanufacturable number when it is new. The remaining printable number of the photosensitive drum 1 is the limit printable number.

[0080] FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram of a series of circulatory regeneration systems for the production, collection, and regeneration of consumables (photosensitive drum units 11) as described above. Solid lines indicate the flow of the photosensitive drum units 11 themselves, and dotted lines indicate the flow of information. The photosensitive drum units 11 move in the following order: manufacturing and regeneration factory 901, delivery base 903, installation location of the image forming device 100, primary collection base 904, and secondary collection base 905. The photosensitive drum units 11 are circulated and regenerated as described above. A collection amount prediction system is configured by multiple image forming devices 100 and a server 902. The server 902 includes an acquisition unit 9021 and a prediction unit 9022.

[0081] FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing a process for predicting the amount of toner collected by the cleaning blade 114. The process is similar to that shown in FIG. The server 902 acquires information including the remaining number of possible plays, the remaining number of days, and installation location information from the image forming apparatus 100 (S301). The server 902 compares the remaining number of printable sheets of the cleaning blade 114 with the number of sheets of film thickness consumed (S302). If the comparison result shows that the remaining number of printable sheets is smaller than the number of sheets of film thickness consumed (S302: N), the server 902 excludes the cleaning blade 114 from the prediction target (S305). If the comparison result shows that the remaining number of printable sheets is larger than the number of sheets of film thickness consumed (S302: Y), the server 902 calculates the transportation number from the installation location information of the cleaning blade 114 (S303). The server 902 calculates the predicted collection date by adding the calculated transportation number to the number of days remaining for the cleaning blade 114 (S304).

[0082] The server 902 can calculate the predicted collection time and collection amount of the cleaning blades 114 by calculating the predicted collection date for all cleaning blades 114 for which life information is sent from the image forming apparatus 100. The predicted collection amount varies depending on whether the shortest, median, or longest remaining number of days is used. The predicted collection amount may be a value calculated using any of the remaining numbers of days, or a value calculated from these numbers multiplied by a predetermined coefficient. The predicted collection amount is constantly updated based on information acquired from the image forming apparatus 100. The predicted collection amount is presented by the same process as in FIG. 6. Based on such collection amount, a production plan for the photosensitive drum unit 11 is made, as in the case of the toner bottles 8.

[0083] As described above, the above method makes it possible to predict the collection time and collection amount of the cleaning blade 114 and general parts. This makes it possible to prevent excess inventory or shortage of parts. Therefore, it is possible to make a production plan for the entire product, including recycled parts and new parts, without excess or shortage of parts.

Claims

1. A collection amount prediction system communicably connected to a plurality of image forming apparatuses including replaceable units, an acquisition means for acquiring the number of days remaining until the date when the unit is expected to be replaced; and a prediction unit for predicting the amount of the units to be collected at a predetermined time based on the number of remaining days acquired from each of the plurality of image forming devices. Recovery volume prediction system.

2. The prediction means calculates a predicted collection date for each unit of the plurality of image forming devices based on the remaining number of days obtained from each of the plurality of image forming devices, and predicts the collection amount of the unit to be collected at the specified time based on the predicted collection date for the unit of the plurality of image forming devices. The recovery amount prediction system according to claim 1.

3. The unit is provided with a memory for storing the number of times the unit can be reused; The acquisition means further acquires the number of times the device can be reused stored in the memory, the prediction means excludes the remaining number of days of a unit whose number of times of reusability is less than 1 from the calculation of the predicted recovery date. The recovery amount prediction system according to claim 1.

4. the unit includes a plurality of reusable parts; the acquiring unit acquires the remaining days of each of the plurality of parts from each of the plurality of image forming devices, the prediction means compares the remaining days of each part and calculates the predicted collection date of each unit of the plurality of image forming apparatuses based on the remaining days of the part with the largest remaining days. The recovery amount prediction system according to claim 1.

5. the image forming apparatus calculates the remaining number of days based on operation information of the unit, The recovery amount prediction system according to claim 1.

6. the image forming apparatus calculates the remaining number of days by subtracting a period of use based on the operation information from a period of use of the unit. The recovery amount prediction system according to claim 5.

7. The acquiring means acquires the remaining number of days when a predetermined period of time has elapsed since the start of use of the unit. The recovery amount prediction system according to claim 1.

8. An acquisition step of acquiring the number of days remaining until the date when a unit constituting an image forming apparatus is predicted to be replaced from a plurality of image forming apparatuses; a prediction step of predicting the amount of the units to be collected at a predetermined time based on the number of remaining days acquired from each of the plurality of image forming devices, Recovery volume prediction method.

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