Method and program for determining countermeasures

Abstract

To enable the prioritization of each change when making multiple changes as a countermeasure against a specific risk. [Solution] When the information processing device 101 makes multiple changes to the supply chain network as a countermeasure against a specific risk among multiple risks, it identifies a first effect and a second effect for each of the multiple changes. The first effect is the effect on the specific risk itself that is obtained when each change is made. The second effect is the effect common to the specific risk among multiple risks and other risks different from that specific risk that are obtained when each change is made. Based on the identified first and second effects for each change, the information processing device 101 calculates the priority of each change among the multiple changes.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a countermeasure decision-making method and a countermeasure decision-making program.

Background Art

[0002] Conventionally, there are cases where it is desired to construct a supply chain capable of coping with assumed risks. For example, even when natural disasters such as floods and earthquakes or geopolitical risks occur, the current supply chain may be changed, such as newly constructing a logistics base or expanding the scale of an existing base, so that the flow of goods is not interrupted.

[0003] As a prior art, for example, a plurality of patterns of action rule information are generated by associating a first company constituting a supply chain with an action logic according to the state of a second company constituting the supply chain of the first company. In each of the plurality of patterns of action rule information, an important performance evaluation index for the entire supply chain is calculated, and based on the important performance evaluation index, the action rule information to be applied to the supply chain is selected.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0004]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0005] However, in the prior art, as a countermeasure against an assumed risk, when multiple changes are required to change the current supply chain, there is a problem that it is difficult to determine the priority of each change.

[0006] In one aspect, an object of the present invention is to enable determination of the priority of each change when making a plurality of changes as a countermeasure against a specific risk. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] In one embodiment, a method for determining countermeasures is provided in which, when making multiple changes to a supply chain network as a countermeasure against a specific risk among multiple risks, a first effect on the specific risk itself and a second effect common to the specific risk and other risks different from the specific risk among the multiple risks are identified for each of the multiple changes, and the priority of each of the multiple changes is calculated based on the identified first and second effects for each of the multiple changes. [Effects of the Invention]

[0008] According to one aspect of the present invention, when making multiple changes as countermeasures against a specific risk, it becomes possible to determine the priority of each change. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0009] [Figure 1] Figure 1 is an explanatory diagram showing one embodiment of the method for determining countermeasures according to the embodiment. [Figure 2] Figure 2 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the system configuration of the information processing system 200. [Figure 3] Figure 3 is a block diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of the countermeasure decision device 201. [Figure 4] Figure 4 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a specific example of a supply chain network. [Figure 5] Figure 5 is a block diagram showing an example of the functional configuration of the countermeasure decision device 201. [Figure 6] Figure 6 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an additional candidate site. [Figure 7] Figure 7 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of calculating the effects by risk level. [Figure 8] Figure 8 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of how to calculate the commonality effect. [Figure 9]FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a supply chain network capable of coping with assumed risks. [Figure 10] FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram showing a first calculation example of priorities. [Figure 11] FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram showing a second calculation example of priorities. [Figure 12] FIG. 12 is a flowchart showing an example of a preprocessing procedure of the countermeasure decision device 201. [Figure 13] FIG. 13 is an explanatory diagram showing a specific example of risk-specific effect information. [Figure 14] FIG. 14 is a flowchart (Part 1) showing an example of a countermeasure decision processing procedure of the countermeasure decision device 201. [Figure 15] FIG. 15 is a flowchart (Part 2) showing an example of a countermeasure decision processing procedure of the countermeasure decision device 201. [Figure 16] FIG. 16 is an explanatory diagram showing a specific example of an output result.

BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION

[0010] Hereinafter, embodiments of a countermeasure decision method and a countermeasure decision program according to the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.

[0011] (Embodiment) FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an embodiment of a countermeasure decision method according to the embodiment. In FIG. 1, an information processing apparatus 101 is a computer that calculates the priority of each of a plurality of changes when making a plurality of changes to a supply chain network as a countermeasure against a specific risk among a plurality of risks.

[0012] Here, the supply chain is a supply network representing a series of flows (procurement, manufacturing, distribution, sales, etc.) until a product or a product reaches a consumer. The supply chain network is information representing the network configuration of the supply chain. The supply chain network includes, for example, a plurality of bases included in the supply chain and a distribution route connecting the bases.

[0013] A base is, for example, a place for procuring, manufacturing, delivering, selling goods or products. A delivery route is a route (logistics route) for delivering goods, products, parts, etc. A plurality of risks are a plurality of risks that may occur and are preset. A specific risk is a risk to be addressed and can be arbitrarily selected. Risks include, for example, natural disasters such as floods and earthquakes and geopolitical risks.

[0014] Here, in order to construct a supply chain capable of coping with assumed risks, the supply chain network may be changed. Changes to the supply chain network include addition of bases or delivery routes (for example, new construction of a base), enhancement of functions of bases or delivery routes (for example, enhancement of accommodation capacity or delivery capacity), etc.

[0015] Also, in order to cope with assumed risks, it is conceivable to use existing technologies such as mathematical optimization to show the final completed form of the supply chain (the changed supply chain network). At this time, multiple changes may be required for the current supply chain network.

[0016] In this case, in order to be able to cope with assumed risks, ultimately all of the multiple changes need to be implemented, but in reality, due to constraints such as budget, time, and human resources, it is often impossible to tackle them all at once. For example, the supply chain manager will judge the priority of each of the multiple changes and tackle them in order from the highest priority.

[0017] However, with conventional technologies, it is difficult to determine the priority order for making multiple changes to the current supply chain network as countermeasures against anticipated risks. For example, it is desirable to ensure that the efforts (changes) made up to that point are not wasted even if the anticipated risks ultimately do not materialize. However, conventional technologies cannot consider the priority of each change in such a way as to prevent the efforts made up to that point from being wasted.

[0018] Therefore, in this embodiment, when making multiple changes to the supply chain network as a countermeasure against a specific risk, a method for determining the priority of each change is described, which involves calculating the priority of each change by considering not only the specific risk but also the effects on other risks.

[0019] Here, we will explain an example of processing performed by the information processing device 101.

[0020] (1) When the information processing device 101 makes multiple changes to the supply chain network as a countermeasure against a specific risk among multiple risks, it identifies a first effect and a second effect for each of the multiple changes. Here, the first effect is the effect on the specific risk itself that is obtained when each change is made.

[0021] Furthermore, the second effect is the effect common to a specific risk among several risks, as well as to other risks different from that specific risk, resulting from each change. The first and second effects can be represented, for example, by a value indicating the degree of their effect (effect size).

[0022] The first effect is identified, for example, based on a value indicating the level of effectiveness for each evaluation indicator expected when each change is made as a countermeasure against a specific risk. Evaluation indicators are metrics used to quantitatively evaluate the effect on each risk and can be set arbitrarily. Examples of evaluation indicators that can be set include inventory reduction, degree of delivery time reduction, and CO2 emission reduction rate.

[0023] The second effect is identified, for example, based on information indicating the effectiveness of each change (measure against a specific risk) for each of multiple risks. For instance, a change that is effective not only against a specific risk but also against various other risks can be said to have a high degree of commonality with other risks, and therefore the second effect will be high.

[0024] In the example in Figure 1, the current supply chain network is designated as "Supply Chain Network SC1," a specific risk is designated as "Risk X," and the scenario assumes that changes 1, 2, and 3 are made to Supply Chain Network SC1 as countermeasures against Risk X. Supply Chain Network SC2 represents the modified supply chain network capable of addressing Risk X.

[0025] In this case, the information processing device 101 identifies a first effect and a second effect for each of the changes 1 to 3. Here, let's assume that for change 1, the first effect (a) and the second effect (b) have been identified. Let's also assume that for change 2, the first effect (c) and the second effect (d) have been identified. Let's also assume that for change 3, the first effect (e) and the second effect (f) have been identified.

[0026] (2) For each change, the information processing device 101 calculates the priority of each change among multiple changes based on the identified first effect and second effect. The priority of each change indicates the degree to which each change should be given priority among multiple changes. For example, a higher priority value indicates a higher degree of priority.

[0027] Specifically, for example, the information processing device 101 may calculate the priority of each change by adding the first effect and the second effect for each change. Alternatively, the information processing device 101 may calculate the priority of each change by taking the average of the first effect and the second effect for each change. In this case, the information processing device 101 may weight the first effect (or the second effect) using a predetermined weighting coefficient.

[0028] As will be explained in more detail later, the priority of each change may be calculated by further considering factors such as the "importance of specific risks."

[0029] In the example in Figure 1, we assume that priority p1 is calculated for change 1 based on the first effect (a) and the second effect (b). We also assume that priority p2 is calculated for change 2 based on the first effect (c) and the second effect (d). Furthermore, we assume that priority p3 is calculated for change 3 based on the first effect (e) and the second effect (f). Priorities p1 to p3 are assumed to be p2 being the highest priority and p1 being the lowest priority (p2 > p3 > p1).

[0030] Thus, according to the information processing device 101, when making multiple changes to the supply chain network as a countermeasure against a specific risk, it is possible to calculate the priority of each change by considering not only the specific risk but also the effects on other risks. This makes it possible for the information processing device 101 to determine what priority each change should be made in.

[0031] In the example shown in Figure 1, the information processing device 101 can calculate the priorities p1 to p3 for each of the changes 1 to 3 when implementing changes 1 to 3 in the supply chain network SC1 as a countermeasure against risk X, taking into account not only the effect on risk X but also on other risks. For example, a user can determine the order in which each of the changes 1 to 3 should be implemented by referring to the priorities p1 to p3.

[0032] Here, among priorities p1 to p3, priority p2 has the highest priority and priority p1 has the lowest (p2>p3>p1). Therefore, the user can determine that change 2 has the highest priority, change 3 has the second highest priority, and change 1 has the lowest priority. Furthermore, by implementing changes 1 to 3 in order of highest priority, changes that are effective against other risks are implemented preferentially, so even if the anticipated risk X ultimately does not occur, the efforts made up to that point (e.g., change 2) can be made to be as minimally wasted as possible.

[0033] (Example of system configuration for information processing system 200) Next, we will describe an example of the system configuration of the information processing system 200, which includes the information processing device 101 shown in Figure 1. Here, we will explain using the case where the information processing device 101 shown in Figure 1 is applied to the countermeasure decision device 201 within the information processing system 200 as an example.

[0034] Figure 2 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the system configuration of the information processing system 200. In Figure 2, the information processing system 200 includes a countermeasure decision device 201 and a client device 202. In the information processing system 200, the countermeasure decision device 201 and the client device 202 are connected via a wired or wireless network 210. The network 210 is, for example, the Internet, a LAN (Local Area Network), or a WAN (Wide Area Network).

[0035] Here, the countermeasure decision device 201 is a computer that supports the construction of a supply chain capable of responding to anticipated risks. The countermeasure decision device 201 is, for example, a server.

[0036] Client device 202 is a computer used by a user of the information processing system 200. The user is, for example, a supply chain manager (owner). Client device 202 can be, for example, a PC (Personal Computer), a tablet PC, etc.

[0037] In the following explanation, the supply chain under management may be referred to as "Supply Chain SC." Furthermore, the supply chain network representing the network configuration of the Supply Chain SC may be referred to as "Supply Chain Network SC#" (where # is a natural number greater than or equal to 1).

[0038] In this example, the countermeasure decision device 201 and the client device 202 are provided as separate components, but this is not the only option. For example, the countermeasure decision device 201 may be implemented by the client device 202. Furthermore, the information processing system 200 may include multiple client devices 202.

[0039] (Example hardware configuration of the countermeasure decision device 201) Next, we will describe an example of the hardware configuration of the countermeasure decision device 201.

[0040] Figure 3 is a block diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of the countermeasure decision device 201. In Figure 3, the countermeasure decision device 201 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 301, memory 302, disk drive 303, disk 304, communication interface 305, portable recording medium interface 306, and portable recording medium 307. Each component is connected by a bus 300.

[0041] Here, the CPU 301 is responsible for the overall control of the countermeasure decision device 201. The CPU 301 may have multiple cores. The memory 302 includes, for example, ROM (Read Only Memory) and RAM (Random Access Memory). The program stored in the memory 302 is loaded into the CPU 301, causing the CPU 301 to execute the coded process.

[0042] The disk drive 303 controls the reading and writing of data to the disk 304 according to the control of the CPU 301. The disk 304 stores the data written under the control of the disk drive 303. The disk 304 is, for example, a magnetic disk, an optical disk, etc.

[0043] The communication interface 305 is connected to the network 210 via a communication line, and through the network 210, it is connected to an external computer (for example, the client device 202 shown in Figure 2). The communication interface 305 manages the interface between the network 210 and the inside of the device, and controls the input and output of data from the external computer. The communication interface 305 is, for example, a modem or a LAN adapter.

[0044] The portable recording medium interface 306 controls the reading and writing of data to the portable recording medium 307 according to the control of the CPU 301. The portable recording medium 307 stores the data written under the control of the portable recording medium interface 306. The portable recording medium 307 is, for example, a CD (Compact Disc)-ROM, a DVD (Digital Versatile Disk), or a USB (Universal Serial Bus) memory.

[0045] Furthermore, the countermeasure decision device 201 may have, in addition to the components described above, an input device, a display, etc. Also, the countermeasure decision device 201 does not have to have, for example, the portable recording medium I / F 306 and the portable recording medium 307 among the components described above. The client device 202 shown in Figure 2 can also be realized with the same hardware configuration as the countermeasure decision device 201. However, the client device 202 may have, in addition to the components described above, an input device, a display, etc.

[0046] (Specific example of a supply chain network SC#) Next, we will explain a specific example of a supply chain network (SC#).

[0047] Figure 4 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a specific example of a supply chain network. In Figure 4, supply chain network SC1 represents the current supply chain network of supply chain SC. Supply chain network SC1 includes locations 1 to 15.

[0048] Locations 1-15 are places where, for example, goods and products are procured, manufactured, distributed, and sold. In Figure 4, the circles indicate locations. Here, only locations 1-15 included in the supply chain SC are illustrated, and other components such as distribution routes connecting the locations are omitted.

[0049] (Example of functional configuration of the countermeasure decision device 201) Next, we will describe an example of the functional configuration of the countermeasure decision device 201.

[0050] Figure 5 is a block diagram showing an example of the functional configuration of the countermeasure decision device 201. In Figure 5, the countermeasure decision device 201 includes an acquisition unit 501, a reception unit 502, a first calculation unit 503, a specification unit 504, a second calculation unit 505, and an output unit 506. The acquisition unit 501 to the output unit 506 function as the control unit 500, and specifically, this function is realized by having the CPU 301 execute a program stored in a storage device such as the memory 302, disk 304, or portable recording medium 307 shown in Figure 3, or by using the communication I / F 305. The processing results of each functional unit are stored in a storage device such as the memory 302 or disk 304.

[0051] The acquisition unit 501 acquires the current supply chain network SC# for the supply chain SC. The current supply chain network SC# is information that represents the current network configuration of the supply chain SC.

[0052] Specifically, for example, the acquisition unit 501 may acquire the current supply chain network SC1 (see Figure 4) by receiving data from the client device 202 shown in Figure 2. Alternatively, the acquisition unit 501 may acquire the current supply chain network SC1 through user input using an input device (not shown) of its own device.

[0053] The acquisition unit 501 acquires multiple selectable risks as anticipated risks. Here, anticipated risks are risks that may affect the supply chain SC, such as natural disasters like floods and earthquakes, and geopolitical risks like terrorism and political instability.

[0054] Specifically, for example, the acquisition unit 501 may acquire a list of risks by receiving it from the client device 202. The list of risks is information that identifies multiple risks that can be selected as anticipated risks. Alternatively, the acquisition unit 501 may acquire a list of risks through user input using an input device (not shown).

[0055] In the following explanation, the multiple selectable risks are denoted as "Risks R1 to Rm" (where m is a natural number greater than or equal to 2), and any of the risks R1 to Rm may be denoted as "Risk Ri" (i=1, 2, ..., m).

[0056] The reception unit 502 accepts the selection of a specific risk. Here, a specific risk is a anticipated risk, for example, a risk related to the supply chain SC that the user plans to implement countermeasures for in the future. The selection of a specific risk is performed, for example, by outputting risks R1 to Rm as selectable options and accepting the selection of any risk Ri from the output risks R1 to Rm.

[0057] Specifically, for example, the reception unit 502 may output to the client device 202 a list of selectable risks R1 to Rm from the risk list. In this case, the reception unit 502 may accept the selection of a specific risk by receiving it from the client device 202. Alternatively, the reception unit 502 may display the selectable risks R1 to Rm from the risk list on a display (not shown). In this case, the reception unit 502 may accept the selection of a specific risk by user input using an input device (not shown).

[0058] In the following explanation, a specific risk selected from risks R1 to Rm may be referred to as "Assumed Risk Ri" (i = 1, 2, ..., m).

[0059] The first calculation unit 503 calculates a supply chain network capable of handling the selected assumed risk Ri for the supply chain SC, based on the acquired current supply chain network SC#. Here, a supply chain network capable of handling the assumed risk Ri represents a network configuration that can minimize damage in the supply chain by ensuring that the flow of goods is not interrupted even if the assumed risk Ri occurs.

[0060] Specifically, for example, the first calculation unit 503 may use existing technologies such as mathematical optimization techniques to calculate a supply chain network that can handle the assumed risk Ri. In this case, the first calculation unit 503 may pre-set constraints such as the number, location, and function of new locations (candidate locations) that can be added to the supply chain SC.

[0061] Any existing technology may be used to calculate a supply chain network that can correspond to the assumed risk Ri. Furthermore, the first calculation unit 503 may acquire a supply chain network that can correspond to the assumed risk Ri calculated by an external computer. Also, a supply chain network that can correspond to each risk Ri may be calculated in advance, for example, prior to the selection of the assumed risk Ri.

[0062] The identification unit 504 identifies changes to the current supply chain network SC# as countermeasures against the assumed risk Ri. Specifically, for example, the identification unit 504 extracts the changes to the current supply chain network SC# from a supply chain network that can address the calculated assumed risk Ri.

[0063] The changes refer to the parts of the current supply chain network SC# that are modified as countermeasures against the assumed risk Ri. Changes to the supply chain network SC# include adding locations or delivery routes, or enhancing the functionality of locations or delivery routes. Note that the changes made to the current supply chain network SC# as countermeasures against each risk Ri may be identified in advance, for example, prior to the selection of the assumed risk Ri.

[0064] The following explanation uses the example of "adding a new location" to the supply chain network SC# as an example of "changing" the supply chain network SC#.

[0065] More specifically, for example, the identification unit 504 may extract newly added locations as changes based on the results of comparing a supply chain network capable of handling the assumed risk Ri with the current supply chain network SC1 (see Figure 4). The identification unit 504 then identifies the changes to the extracted changes as changes to be made to the current supply chain network SC#.

[0066] Examples of changes to the current supply chain network SC# will be discussed later using Figure 9.

[0067] Furthermore, when multiple changes are made to the current supply chain network SC# as countermeasures against the assumed risk Ri, the specific unit 504 identifies the risk-specific effects and commonalities effects for each of the multiple changes. Here, the risk-specific effects are the effects on the assumed risk Ri itself that are obtained when each change is made. The "first effect" explained in Figure 1 corresponds to the risk-specific effects. The risk-specific effects may be expressed, for example, by cost-effectiveness.

[0068] Furthermore, the commonality effect is the effect that occurs when each change is made, which is common to the assumed risk Ri and other risks. Other risks are one or more risks from risks R1 to Rm that are different from the assumed risk Ri. The "second effect" explained in Figure 1 corresponds to the commonality effect. The commonality effect may also be expressed, for example, by cost-effectiveness.

[0069] In the following explanation, the multiple changes made to the current supply chain network SC# as countermeasures against the assumed risk Ri will be referred to as "Changes C1 to Cn" (where n is a natural number greater than or equal to 2), and any change among Changes C1 to Cn may be referred to as "Change Ck" (k=1, 2, ..., n).

[0070] Specifically, for example, the specific unit 504 may identify the risk-specific effects for each change Ck based on a value indicating the expected effectiveness of each evaluation indicator when each change Ck is implemented as a countermeasure against the assumed risk Ri. The evaluation indicators are indicators for quantitatively evaluating the effect on each risk Ri and can be set arbitrarily. Examples of evaluation indicators include inventory turnover rate, raw material waste rate, CO2 reduction rate, and customer satisfaction.

[0071] The values ​​indicating the expected effectiveness of each evaluation indicator when each change Ck is implemented as a countermeasure against the assumed risk Ri may, for example, be calculated as intermediate data when calculating a supply chain network capable of handling the assumed risk Ri. Alternatively, the values ​​indicating the effectiveness of each evaluation indicator may be obtained through user input using an input device (not shown).

[0072] More specifically, for example, the specific unit 504 may calculate a statistical value indicating the expected effectiveness of each evaluation indicator when each change Ck is made as a countermeasure against the assumed risk Ri, and identify the calculated statistical value as the risk-specific effect. The statistical value may be, for example, the mean, minimum, maximum, median, or mode of the value indicating the effectiveness of each evaluation indicator.

[0073] Furthermore, examples of the specific risk-specific effects (first effect) of each change Ck with respect to the assumed risk Ri will be described later using Figure 7.

[0074] Furthermore, the identification unit 504 may identify commonality effects for each change Ck based on information indicating whether or not each change Ck is effective against each risk Ri from R1 to Rm. Here, the effectiveness of changing a change Ck against risk Ri may be identified, for example, by whether or not the supply chain network capable of addressing risk Ri includes the change location corresponding to the change Ck (for example, a location added by the change Ck).

[0075] A supply chain network capable of addressing risk Ri is calculated, for example, by the first calculation unit 503. For example, the identification unit 504 may determine that the supply chain network capable of addressing risk Ri is effective against risk Ri if it includes locations added by change Ck. On the other hand, the identification unit 504 may determine that the supply chain network capable of addressing risk Ri is not effective against risk Ri if it does not include locations added by change Ck.

[0076] Furthermore, the effectiveness of the modification Ck against risk Ri may be determined based on a value indicating the expected effectiveness of each evaluation indicator when the modification Ck is implemented as a countermeasure against risk Ri. For example, the identification unit 504 may determine that the effectiveness against risk Ri is "present" if the statistical value indicating the expected effectiveness of each evaluation indicator when the modification Ck is implemented as a countermeasure against risk Ri is greater than or equal to a threshold. On the other hand, the identification unit 504 may determine that the effectiveness against risk Ri is "absent" if the statistical value is less than the threshold. The threshold can be set arbitrarily.

[0077] Specifically, for example, the specific unit 504 may identify the number of risks Ri among risks R1 to Rm for which the modification Ck would be effective, as a commonality effect for the modification Ck. For example, the more risks Ri for which the modification Ck would be effective, the more effective the modification Ck is for various risks, and therefore the higher the commonality effect of the modification Ck.

[0078] Furthermore, examples of identifying the commonalities effect (second effect) of each change Ck with respect to the assumed risk Ri will be discussed later using Figure 8.

[0079] Furthermore, the acquisition unit 501 may acquire the importance of the assumed risk Ri. Here, the importance of the assumed risk Ri is an indicator representing the magnitude of the impact of the assumed risk Ri on the supply chain SC. The importance of the assumed risk Ri may be determined, for example, according to the probability of the assumed risk Ri occurring.

[0080] Furthermore, the importance of a hypothetical risk Ri may be determined according to the magnitude of the business impact if the hypothetical risk Ri is not addressed when it occurs. The importance of a hypothetical risk Ri may be determined according to the ease of implementing countermeasures against the hypothetical risk Ri. The importance of a hypothetical risk Ri may be determined according to the visibility of the effects of addressing the hypothetical risk Ri.

[0081] Specifically, for example, the acquisition unit 501 may acquire the importance of the assumed risk Ri by receiving it from the client device 202. Further, the acquisition unit 501 may acquire the importance of the assumed risk Ri by the user's operation input using an input device (not shown).

[0082] The second calculation unit 505 calculates the priority of each change Ck in the changes C1 to Cn based on the risk-specific effect and the commonality effect that have been identified. The priority of each change Ck indicates the degree of priority given to each change Ck among the changes C1 to Cn to be taken as countermeasures against the assumed risk Ri.

[0083] Specifically, for example, the second calculation unit 505 may calculate the priority of each change Ck by adding the risk-specific effect and the commonality effect for each change Ck. Further, the second calculation unit 505 may calculate the priority of each change Ck by obtaining the average of the risk-specific effect and the commonality effect for each change Ck.

[0084] Further, the second calculation unit 505 may calculate the priority of each change Ck based on the identified risk-specific effect and commonality effect, and the acquired importance of the assumed risk Ri for each change Ck in the changes C1 to Cn. Specifically, for example, the second calculation unit 505 may calculate the priority of each change Ck using the following formula (1). However, α indicates the importance of the assumed risk Ri.

[0085] Priority of change Ck = α × Risk-specific effect + Commonality effect ···(¹)

[0086] Thereby, the second calculation unit 505 can weight the risk-specific effect according to the importance of the assumed risk Ri and obtain the priority of each change Ck.

[0087] Further, the second calculation unit 505 may calculate the priority of each change Ck using the following formula (2). However, p indicates the importance of the assumed risk Ri. p is a value of "0 < p ≤ 1", and is represented by, for example, the expected occurrence probability of the assumed risk Ri.

[0088] Priority of change Ck = p × risk-specific effect + (1-p) × commonality effect ... (2)

[0089] As a result, the second calculation unit 505 can determine the priority of each change Ck by weighting the risk-specific effects and commonalities effects according to the importance of the assumed risk Ri.

[0090] Furthermore, examples of calculating the priority of each change Ck for the assumed risk Ri will be described later using Figures 10 and 11.

[0091] The output unit 506 outputs the priority of each calculated change Ck. Specifically, for example, the output unit 506 may output the priority of each change Ck in association with the assumed risk Ri. In this case, the output unit 506 may also output information that allows for the identification of each change Ck (e.g., the location of the change) in relation to the current supply chain network SC#.

[0092] The output format of the output unit 506 may include, for example, storage in a storage device such as memory 302 or disk 304, transmission to another computer (e.g., client device 202) via communication I / F 305, display on a display (not shown), or printing to a printer (not shown).

[0093] Furthermore, the second calculation unit 505 may determine the priority of each change Ck based on the priority of each change Ck that it has calculated. Specifically, for example, the second calculation unit 505 may assign a higher priority to each change Ck in order of decreasing priority.

[0094] Furthermore, assume that the estimated costs and durations for each change Ck are known. In this case, the second calculation unit 505 may determine the priority of each change Ck based on the calculated priority of each change Ck and the estimated costs and durations for each change Ck. For example, if there are two or more changes with the same or similar priority, the second calculation unit 505 may assign a higher priority to the change Ck with the shorter estimated cost and duration among the two or more changes. In this case, the output unit 506 may output the determined priority of each change Ck.

[0095] Furthermore, the functional units (acquisition units 501 to output units 506) of the countermeasure decision device 201 may be implemented by multiple computers within the information processing system 200 (for example, the countermeasure decision device 201 and client devices 202). In this case, communication between functional units of different computers is performed, for example, by sending and receiving data between functional units via the network 210.

[0096] (Potential additional locations) Next, we will explain potential additional locations, using the current supply chain network SC1 shown in Figure 4 as an example.

[0097] Figure 6 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a potential additional site. In Figure 6, sites A to F are sites that can be added to the current supply chain network SC1 through modification (potential additional sites). Depending on the assumed risk Ri, it is assumed that at least one of sites A to F will be added to the current supply chain network SC1.

[0098] (Pre-processing) Next, the pre-processing of the countermeasure decision device 201 will be described. Pre-processing is a process performed in advance of selecting the assumed risk Ri for the supply chain SC. In pre-processing, for example, risk-specific effect information and common effect information are created.

[0099] In the pre-processing, for example, for each risk Ri from risks R1 to Rm, the risk-specific effect (the effect on each risk Ri itself) is calculated if each change is made to the current supply chain network SC1, by adding one of the locations A to F as a countermeasure against each risk Ri.

[0100] Here, using risk R1 (for example, an earthquake) as an example, we will explain how to calculate the risk-specific effects obtained when each change is made to the current supply chain network SC1, by adding one of the locations A to F as a countermeasure against risk R1.

[0101] Figure 7 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of calculating the effects by risk. In Figure 7, the risk-specific effect information 700 represents the expected effect amount for each evaluation indicator (e.g., indicators 1, 2, 3) when each change is made to the current supply chain network SC1, adding one of the locations A to F as a countermeasure against risk R1. The effect amount is a value that indicates the degree of the effect, with a larger value indicating a higher effect.

[0102] For example, the expected effect size of indicator 1 when adding site A is "5". Similarly, the expected effect size of indicator 2 when adding site B is "3". Note that the effect sizes for each evaluation indicator may be those calculated as intermediate data when calculating a supply chain network capable of handling risk R1 using existing technologies such as mathematical optimization techniques.

[0103] The specific unit 504, for example, refers to the risk-specific effect information 700 and calculates the average effect amount for each evaluation indicator expected when adding any of the bases A to F, and uses the calculated average as the risk-specific effect (corresponding to "effect" in Figure 7).

[0104] Taking the change to add site A as an example, the specific unit 504 calculates the risk-specific effect "5" obtained when the change to add site A is made as a countermeasure against risk R1 by calculating the average effect size for each evaluation indicator in the column for site A.

[0105] Furthermore, taking the change of adding base B as an example, the specific unit 504 calculates the risk-specific effect "4" obtained when the change of adding base B is made as a countermeasure against risk R1 by calculating the average effect amount for each evaluation indicator in the column for base B.

[0106] This allows the countermeasure decision device 201 to pre-calculate the risk-specific effects obtained when adding one of the locations A to F to the current supply chain network SC1 for each risk Ri from R1 to Rm.

[0107] Furthermore, the pre-processing includes calculating the commonality effect (the effect common to risk Ri and other risks) obtained when, for example, one of the changes made to the current supply chain network SC1 by adding any of locations A through F.

[0108] Figure 8 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of calculating commonality effects. In Figure 8, the commonality effect information 800 indicates whether or not each risk Ri of risks R1 to Rm is effective when each change is made to add one of the locations A to F to the current supply chain network SC1.

[0109] In Figure 8, "○" indicates that the measure is effective against risk Ri. Conversely, "-" indicates that the measure is not effective against risk Ri. Here, "○" is set to indicate effectiveness when the supply chain network capable of addressing risk Ri includes the locations added by the change. On the other hand, "-" is set to indicate effectiveness when the supply chain network capable of addressing risk Ri does not include the locations added by the change.

[0110] However, the effectiveness of each risk Ri may be determined, for example, based on the effects of the risk-specific effect information 700 shown in Figure 7. Specifically, for example, the identification unit 504 may determine that there is effectiveness against a certain risk Ri if the risk-specific effect obtained when adding site A as a countermeasure against that risk Ri is above a threshold.

[0111] For example, for each change to add one of locations A to F to the current supply chain network SC1, the specific unit 504 refers to the commonality effect information 800 and calculates the commonality effect obtained when each change is made.

[0112] Taking the change to add base A as an example, the specific unit 504 may calculate the commonality effect "0" obtained when the change to add base A is made by, for example, counting the number of "○" in the column for base A. Similarly, taking the change to add base B as an example, the specific unit 504 may calculate the commonality effect "2" obtained when the change to add base B is made by, for example, counting the number of "○" in the column for base B.

[0113] Furthermore, the specific unit 504 may calculate the commonality effect based on effects such as the risk-specific effect information 700 shown in Figure 7. Specifically, for example, the specific unit 504 may calculate the commonality effect as the average value of the risk-specific effects for each risk Ri obtained when a change is made to add site A.

[0114] This allows the countermeasure decision device 201 to pre-calculate the commonality effect obtained when each change is made to the current supply chain network SC1 by adding any of locations A to F.

[0115] (Example of calculating the priority of each change check) Next, we will explain an example of calculating the priority of each change Ck when making changes C1 to Cn to the current supply chain network SC1 (see Figure 4, for example) as a countermeasure against the assumed risk Ri.

[0116] First, using Figure 9, we will explain a supply chain network capable of handling the assumed risk Ri. Here, the assumed risk Ri will be referred to as "risk R1". Risk R1 is, for example, an earthquake.

[0117] Figure 9 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of a supply chain network capable of addressing anticipated risks. In Figure 9, supply chain network SC2 is a supply chain network capable of addressing anticipated risk R1. Supply chain network SC2 corresponds to the modified supply chain network that would result from implementing measures to address anticipated risk R1 in the current supply chain network SC1.

[0118] In supply chain network SC2, locations A, C, and E are added to the current supply chain network SC1. Therefore, as countermeasures against the anticipated risk R1, the following modifications are identified: modification C1, which adds location A; modification C2, which adds location C; and modification C3, which adds location E.

[0119] The following describes an example of calculating the priority of each change Ck when implementing changes C1 to C3 in the current supply chain network SC1 as a countermeasure against the assumed risk R1. First, we will explain using the above formula (1) as an example of calculating the priority of each change Ck.

[0120] Figure 10 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the first priority calculation. In Figure 10, the specific unit 504 identifies the risk-specific effect (first effect) and the commonality effect (second effect) for each of the changes C1 to C3 when making changes C1 to C3 to the current supply chain network SC1 as a countermeasure against the assumed risk R1.

[0121] Here, we assume that, based on the risk-specific effect information 700 corresponding to the assumed risk R1 shown in Figure 7, a risk-specific effect of "5" for change C1 (addition of base A) is identified, a risk-specific effect of "3" for change C2 (addition of base C) is identified, and a risk-specific effect of "1" for change C3 (addition of base E) is identified.

[0122] Furthermore, from the commonality effect information 800 shown in Figure 8, a commonality effect of "0" was identified for change C1 (addition of base A), a commonality effect of "2" was identified for change C2 (addition of base C), and a commonality effect of "4" was identified for change C3 (addition of base E).

[0123] The second calculation unit 505 uses formula (1) above to calculate the priority of each change Ck based on the risk-specific effect and commonality effect of each change Ck and the importance α of the assumed risk R1. The priority table 1000 shows the priority of each change Ck, which changes according to the importance α. The priority of A corresponds to the priority of change C1 (addition of site A). The priority of C corresponds to the priority of change C2 (addition of site C). The priority of E corresponds to the priority of change C3 (addition of site E).

[0124] For example, if the importance α is "0.6", the priority of change C1 (addition of base A) calculated using the above formula (1) is "3". Also, if the importance α is "1.5", the priority of change C1 (addition of base A) calculated using the above formula (1) is "7.5". A higher priority value indicates a higher priority.

[0125] For example, if the importance α is "0.6", the priority of change C3 (addition of base E) calculated using the above formula (1) is "4.6". Also, if the importance α is "1.5", the priority of change C3 (addition of base E) calculated using the above formula (1) is "5.5".

[0126] According to Priority Table 1000, when the importance α of the assumed risk R1 is low (0.6 ≤ α ≤ 0.9), the priority of transformation C3 (addition of site E), which has a high commonality effect, is relatively high. For example, when the importance α is "α = 0.6", the prioritization in descending order of priority would be "1st: Change C3 (addition of site E), 2nd: Change C2 (addition of site C), 3rd: Transformation C1 (addition of site A)".

[0127] Furthermore, when the importance α of the assumed risk R1 is high (1.1 ≤ α ≤ 1.5), the priority of transformation C1 (addition of base A), which has a high risk-specific effect, becomes relatively higher. For example, when the importance α is "α = 1.5", the priority order from highest to lowest would be "1st: Transformation C1 (addition of base A), 2nd: Change C2 (addition of base C), 3rd: Change C3 (addition of base E)".

[0128] Next, we will explain using the above formula (2) as an example to calculate the priority of each change Ck.

[0129] Figure 11 is an explanatory diagram showing a second example of priority calculation. In Figure 11, as in Figure 10, when making changes C1 to C3 to the current supply chain network SC1 as countermeasures against the assumed risk R1, the risk-specific effect (first effect) and the commonality effect (second effect) are identified for each change C1 to C3.

[0130] The second calculation unit 505 uses formula (2) above to calculate the priority of each change Ck based on the risk-specific effect and commonality effect of each change Ck and the importance p of the assumed risk R1. The importance p is expressed by the probability of occurrence of the assumed risk R1. The priority table 1100 shows the priority of each change Ck, which changes according to the importance p. The priority of A corresponds to the priority of change C1 (addition of site A). The priority of C corresponds to the priority of change C2 (addition of site C). The priority of E corresponds to the priority of change C3 (addition of site E).

[0131] For example, if the importance p is "0.1", the priority of change C1 (addition of base A) calculated using the above formula (2) is "0.5". Also, if the importance p is "1.0", the priority of change C1 (addition of base A) calculated using the above formula (2) is "5".

[0132] For example, if the importance p is "0.1", the priority of change C3 (addition of base E) calculated using the above formula (2) is "4.6". Also, if the importance p is "1.0", the priority of change C3 (addition of base E) calculated using the above formula (2) is "1".

[0133] According to Priority Table 1100, when the importance p (expected probability of occurrence) of the assumed risk R1 is low (0.1 ≤ p ≤ 0.4), the priority of transformation C3 (addition of base E), which has a high commonality effect, is relatively high. For example, when the importance p is "p = 0.1", the prioritization order from highest to lowest priority is "1st: Change C3 (addition of base E), 2nd: Change C2 (addition of base C), 3rd: Transformation C1 (addition of base A)".

[0134] Furthermore, when the importance p (expected probability of occurrence) of the assumed risk R1 is high (0.7 ≤ p ≤ 1.0), the priority of transformation C1 (addition of base A), which has a high risk-specific effect, becomes relatively higher. For example, when the importance p is "p = 1.0", the priority order from highest to lowest would be "1st: Transformation C1 (addition of base A), 2nd: Change C2 (addition of base C), 3rd: Change C3 (addition of base E)".

[0135] (If the assumed risks include two or more risks) The above explanation used the example of selecting one risk from risks R1 to Rm as the assumed risk, but it is not limited to this. The assumed risk may include two or more risks selected from risks R1 to Rm.

[0136] For example, suppose a user is trying to implement countermeasures for a supply chain (SC) because risks R1 and R3 may occur simultaneously or in a chain reaction. In this case, risks R1 and R3 are selected from risks R1 to Rm as the assumed risks.

[0137] The first calculation unit 503 calculates a supply chain network capable of handling assumed risks, including two or more selected risks, based on the current supply chain network SC# for the supply chain SC. For example, suppose the assumed risks include "risks R1 and R3". In this case, the first calculation unit 503 calculates a supply chain network capable of handling both risks R1 and R3, for example, using existing technologies such as mathematical optimization techniques.

[0138] Furthermore, the specific unit 504 identifies changes to the current supply chain network SC# as countermeasures for assumed risks that include two or more risks. Specifically, for example, the specific unit 504 identifies changes to the current supply chain network SC# by extracting the parts of the current supply chain network SC# that can be changed from a supply chain network that can address the calculated assumed risks.

[0139] Furthermore, if the specific unit 504 makes changes C1 to Cn to the current supply chain network SC# as a countermeasure against assumed risks that include two or more risks, it may identify risk-specific effects and commonalities effects for each change Ck, for each risk Ri included in the assumed risks.

[0140] For example, suppose the assumed risks include "risks R1 and R3". In this case, the identification unit 504 identifies the risk-specific effect and common effect of risk R1 for each change Ck. The identification unit 504 also identifies the risk-specific effect and common effect of risk R3 for each change Ck.

[0141] Furthermore, the second calculation unit 505 may calculate the priority of each change Ck in changes C1 to Cn based on the risk-specific effect and commonality effect identified for each risk Ri included in the assumed risk for each change Ck. Specifically, for example, the second calculation unit 505 may calculate the priority of each change Ck by multiplying the risk-specific effect and commonality effect identified for each risk Ri included in the assumed risk for each change Ck.

[0142] For example, assume that the assumed risks include "risks R1, R3". In this case, the second calculation unit 505 may calculate the priority of each change Ck by integrating the risk-specific effects and the commonality effects identified for each of the risks R1, R3 for each change Ck. Also, the second calculation unit 505 may calculate the priority of each change Ck by obtaining the average of the value obtained by adding the risk-specific effect and the commonality effect of risk R1 and the value obtained by adding the risk-specific effect and the commonality effect of risk R3 for each change Ck.

[0143] Also, the acquisition unit 501 may acquire the importance of each risk Ri included in the assumed risk. Then, the second calculation unit 505 may calculate the priority of each change Ck based on the risk-specific effects and the commonality effects identified for each risk Ri included in the assumed risk and the importance of each risk Ri included in the acquired assumed risk.

[0144] Specifically, for example, the second calculation unit 505 may calculate the priority of each change Ck using the following formula (3). However, pi represents the importance of the risk Ri included in the assumed risk. pi is a value of "0 < pi ≤ 1". E1(i) represents the effect (first effect) on the risk Ri itself included in the assumed risk obtained when the change Ck is made. E2(i) is the effect common to the risk Ri included in the assumed risk and other risks obtained when the change Ck is made. Σ represents the sum for the risks Ri included in the assumed risk.

[0145] Priority of change Ck = Σ(pi × E1(i)) + Σ(E2(i)) ···(3)

[0146] For example, assume that the assumed risks include "risks R1, R3". In this case, using the above formula (3), the priority of change Ck is "Priority of change Ck = {(p1 × E1(1)) + (p3 × E1(3))} + {E2(1) + E2(3)}".

[0147] Further, the acquisition unit 501 may acquire the importance of each risk Ri among the risks R1 to Rm. Then, the second calculation unit 505 may calculate the priority of each change Ck based on the risk-specific effect and the common effect identified for each risk Ri included in the assumed risk, and the importance of each risk Ri of the acquired risks R1 to Rm.

[0148] Specifically, for example, the second calculation unit 505 may calculate the priority of each change Ck using the following formula (4). However, pi represents the importance of the risk Ri included in the assumed risk. pi is a value of "0 < pi ≤ 1". E1(i) represents the effect (the first effect) on the risk Ri itself included in the assumed risk obtained when the change Ck is made. qj represents the importance of another risk Rj other than the assumed risk. qj is a value of "0 < qj ≤ 1". E1(j) represents the effect on another risk Rj obtained when the change Ck is made. The Σ in the first term represents the sum for the risks Ri included in the assumed risk. The Σ in the second term represents the sum for the other risks Rj. The first term can be said to be the part representing the effect on the assumed risk itself. The second term can be said to be the part representing the effect common to other risks other than the assumed risk.

[0149] Priority of change Ck = Σ(pi × E1(i)) + Σ(qj × E1(j)) ···(4)

[0150] For example, if the risks R1 to Rm are "risks R1 to R4" and the assumed risks include "risks R1, R3", then using the above formula (4), the priority of the change Ck is "Priority of change Ck = {(p1 × E1(1)) + (p3 × E1(3))} + {q2 × E1(2) + q4 × E1(4)}".

[0151] The importance of Risk Ri included in the assumed risks may be expressed, for example, by the proportion of stakeholders affected by Risk Ri among all stakeholders in the supply chain SC. Alternatively, the importance of Risk Ri selected by the user may be set to "0.5," and the importance of risks not selected by the user may be set to "0.5 / (m-1)," where m is the total number of selectable risks.

[0152] Alternatively, the importance of the assumed risk selected by the user may be defined as "a × (predicted probability of risk Ri occurring)," and the importance of the risks not selected by the user may be defined as "b × (predicted probability of other risks occurring)." However, "a > b."

[0153] Alternatively, the importance of the risk Ri selected by the user may be defined as "a × (percentage of time spent considering risk Ri)," and the importance of other risks not selected by the user may be defined as "b × (percentage of time spent considering other risks)." However, "a > b." The percentage of time spent considering risk Ri can be expressed, for example, as the ratio of the time spent displaying the risk Ri screen to the total time from launching to closing the application used to set the importance. The percentage of time spent considering other risks can be expressed, for example, as the ratio of the time spent displaying the screens for other risks to the total time from launching to closing the application used to set the importance.

[0154] (Various processing procedures of the countermeasure determination device 201) Next, we will explain the various processing procedures of the countermeasure decision device 201. First, we will explain the pre-processing procedure of the countermeasure decision device 201 using Figure 12. Pre-processing of the countermeasure decision device 201 is performed, for example, during initial setup. Pre-processing of the countermeasure decision device 201 is also performed when the current supply chain network is changed or when the selectable risks are changed.

[0155] Figure 12 is a flowchart showing an example of the pre-processing procedure of the countermeasure decision device 201. In the flowchart of Figure 12, first, the countermeasure decision device 201 obtains the current supply chain network SC# for the supply chain SC (step S1201). Next, the countermeasure decision device 201 obtains all risks that can be selected as anticipated risks (step S1202).

[0156] Hereafter, all acquired risks will be denoted as "Risks R1~Rm".

[0157] The countermeasure decision device 201 sets the "i" in risk Ri to "i=1" (step S1203) and calculates a supply chain network that can address risk Ri for the supply chain SC based on the acquired current supply chain network SC# (step S1204).

[0158] The supply chain networks that can handle the calculated risk Ri are registered, for example, in a supply chain network database (not shown).

[0159] Next, the countermeasure decision device 201 identifies changes to the current supply chain network SC# as countermeasures against the calculated risk Ri, based on the supply chain network that can handle the risk Ri (step S1205).

[0160] The countermeasure decision device 201 then identifies the expected effect size for each evaluation indicator when each identified change is made as a countermeasure against risk Ri (step S1206). The identified effect sizes for each evaluation indicator are stored in risk-specific effect information, for example, as shown in Figure 13.

[0161] Next, the countermeasure decision device 201 increments the "i" in the risk Ri (step S1207) and determines whether or not "i = m" has been achieved (step S1208). If "i ≠ m" (step S1208: No), the countermeasure decision device 201 returns to step S1204.

[0162] On the other hand, if "i=m" (step S1208: Yes), the countermeasure decision device 201 terminates the series of processes according to this flowchart.

[0163] This allows the countermeasure decision device 201 to identify in advance the changes to the current supply chain network SC# as countermeasures against each anticipated risk Ri. Furthermore, for each change, the countermeasure decision device 201 can identify the expected effect amount for each evaluation indicator when each change is made as a countermeasure against risk Ri.

[0164] Figure 13 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a specific example of risk-specific effect information. In Figure 13, the risk-specific effect information 1300 represents the expected effect amount for each evaluation indicator when each change is made as a countermeasure against each risk Ri in the current supply chain network SC#. The risk-specific effect information 1300 is a more concrete representation of the information content compared to the risk-specific effect information 700 shown in Figure 7.

[0165] Here, changes to the current supply chain network SC# are shown, for example, "addition of functions to base A in Kansai," "construction of a new base B in Chubu," and "expansion of functions to base C in Kyushu." In addition, KPIs (Key Performance Indicators) such as inventory turnover rate, raw material waste rate, CO2 reduction rate, and customer satisfaction are shown as evaluation indicators.

[0166] For example, Risk-Specific Effect Information 1300 shows the expected inventory turnover rate of "1", raw material waste rate of "0.8", CO2 reduction rate of "0.9", and customer satisfaction rate of "0.9" if the change "addition of functions to base A in Kansai" is implemented as a countermeasure against the risk "earthquake in Kanto".

[0167] Furthermore, the risk-specific effect information 1300 shows the expected inventory turnover rate of "1", raw material waste rate of "0.9", CO2 reduction rate of "0.8", and customer satisfaction of "0.7" if the change "construction of a new base B in the Chubu region" is implemented as a countermeasure against the risk "flooding in the Kansai region".

[0168] Next, the procedure for determining countermeasures in the countermeasure determination device 201 will be explained using Figures 14 and 15.

[0169] Figures 14 and 15 are flowcharts illustrating an example of the countermeasure decision processing procedure of the countermeasure decision device 201. In the flowchart of Figure 14, first, the countermeasure decision device 201 outputs selectable risks R1 to Rm (step S1401). Then, the countermeasure decision device 201 determines whether or not the assumed risk Ri has been selected from among the risks R1 to Rm (step S1402).

[0170] Here, the countermeasure decision device 201 waits for the assumed risk Ri to be selected (step S1402: No). Then, if the assumed risk Ri is selected (step S1402: Yes), the countermeasure decision device 201 refers to a supply chain network DB (not shown) to obtain a supply chain network that can correspond to the selected assumed risk Ri (step S1403).

[0171] Next, the countermeasure decision device 201 identifies changes to the current supply chain network SC# as countermeasures against the assumed risk Ri, based on the acquired supply chain network that can handle the assumed risk Ri (step S1404). Then, the countermeasure decision device 201 determines whether the number n of identified changes is greater than 1 (step S1405).

[0172] Here, if the number of identified changes n is 1 or less (step S1405: No), the countermeasure decision device 201 outputs information that allows for the identification of the identified changes in association with the assumed risk Ri (step S1406), and terminates the series of processes according to this flowchart. The information that allows for the identification of changes indicates, for example, the location and content of the changes corresponding to the change in the current supply chain network SC#.

[0173] On the other hand, if the number of identified changes is greater than 1 (step S1405: Yes), the countermeasure decision device 201 identifies the importance of the selected assumed risk Ri (step S1407). Then, the countermeasure decision device 201 designates the identified changes as "changes C1 to Cn" and sets the "k" in change Ck to "k=1" (step S1408), and proceeds to step S1501 shown in Figure 15.

[0174] In the flowchart of Figure 15, first, the countermeasure decision device 201 refers to the risk-specific effect information (for example, risk-specific effect information 1300) and obtains the expected effect amount for each evaluation indicator when change Ck is made as a countermeasure to the assumed risk Ri (step S1501).

[0175] Then, the countermeasure decision device 201 calculates the risk-specific effect of the change Ck on the assumed risk Ri itself based on the effect size of each acquired evaluation indicator (step S1502). For example, in the risk-specific effect information 1300 shown in Figure 13, the risk-specific effect of the change "addition of functions at base A in Kansai" on the assumed risk "earthquake in Kanto" itself can be represented by the average value of the values ​​within the dotted line frame 1301.

[0176] Next, the countermeasure decision device 201 calculates the commonality effect of the changes Ck that are common to the assumed risk Ri and other risks (step S1503). Specifically, for example, the countermeasure decision device 201 can calculate the commonality effect of the changes Ck by referring to the commonality effect information 800 shown in Figure 8 and counting the number of "○" marks for the changes Ck.

[0177] Then, the countermeasure decision device 201 calculates the priority of the change Ck based on the calculated risk-specific effect of the change Ck, the calculated commonality effect of the change Ck, and the importance of the identified assumed risk Ri (step S1504). Next, the countermeasure decision device 201 increments the "k" of the change Ck (step S1505).

[0178] Then, the countermeasure decision device 201 determines whether the "k" in the change Ck has become "k=n" (step S1506). If "k≠n" (step S1506: No), the countermeasure decision device 201 returns to step S1501.

[0179] On the other hand, if the "k" in the change Ck becomes "k=n" (step S1506: Yes), the countermeasure determination device 201 determines the priority of each change Ck based on the calculated priority of each change Ck (step S1507).

[0180] The countermeasure decision device 201 then outputs the priority of each determined change Ck, along with identifiable information, in association with the assumed risk Ri (step S1508), thus ending the series of processes according to this flowchart. A specific example of the output results will be described later using Figure 16.

[0181] This allows the countermeasure decision device 201 to determine the order in which each change Ck should be implemented when making changes C1 to Cn to the current supply chain network SC# as a countermeasure against the assumed risk Ri.

[0182] Figure 16 is an explanatory diagram showing a specific example of the output results. In Figure 16, output result 1600 includes the current supply chain network SC1 and the supply chain network SC2 that can cope with the assumed risk R1 (earthquake). According to output result 1600, the user can understand that changes C1 to C3 need to be made to the current supply chain network SC1 as a countermeasure against the assumed risk R1 (earthquake).

[0183] Furthermore, users can understand the priority of each change C1 to C3. For example, a user can understand that, as a countermeasure against the assumed risk R1 (earthquake), it is preferable to first implement change C3 (adding base E), then change C2 (adding base C), and finally change C1 (adding base A).

[0184] As explained above, according to the countermeasure decision device 201 of the embodiment, when making changes C1 to Cn to the supply chain network SC# as a countermeasure against the assumed risk Ri among the risks R1 to Rm, it is possible to identify the risk-specific effect and commonality effect obtained when each change Ck of changes C1 to Cn is made. The risk-specific effect is the effect on the assumed risk Ri itself (first effect) obtained when each change Ck is made. The commonality effect is the effect common to the assumed risk Ri and other risks among the risks R1 to Rm (second effect) obtained when each change Ck is made. Then, according to the countermeasure decision device 201, the priority of each change Ck in changes C1 to Cn can be calculated based on the identified risk-specific effect and commonality effect for each change Ck.

[0185] As a result, the countermeasure decision device 201 can calculate the priority of each change Ck when making changes C1 to Cn to the current supply chain network SC# as a countermeasure against the assumed risk Ri, taking into account not only the assumed risk Ri but also the effects on other risks, and can determine in what order each change Ck should be implemented.

[0186] Furthermore, the countermeasure decision device 201 can obtain the importance of the assumed risk Ri, and for each change Ck, it can calculate the priority of each change Ck based on the identified risk-specific effects, commonalities effects, and the obtained importance of the assumed risk Ri. The importance of the assumed risk Ri is determined, for example, according to the probability of the assumed risk Ri occurring. Alternatively, the importance of the assumed risk Ri may be determined according to the magnitude of the business impact if the assumed risk Ri is not addressed when it occurs. Alternatively, the importance of the assumed risk Ri may be determined according to the ease of implementing countermeasures against the assumed risk Ri. Alternatively, the importance of the assumed risk Ri may be determined according to the visibility of the effects of addressing the assumed risk Ri.

[0187] This allows the countermeasure decision device 201 to calculate the priority of each change Ck, taking into account the degree to which the assumed risk Ri should be addressed. For example, when the expected probability of the assumed risk Ri occurring is high, or when the business impact of not addressing the assumed risk Ri is large, the countermeasure decision device 201 can calculate the priority of each change Ck such that the higher the risk-specific effect, the higher the priority. Furthermore, when it is difficult to implement countermeasures against the assumed risk Ri, or when the effects of addressing the assumed risk Ri are unclear, the countermeasure decision device 201 can calculate the priority of each change Ck such that the higher the commonality effect, the higher the priority.

[0188] Furthermore, according to the countermeasure decision device 201, for each change Ck, the risk-specific effect can be identified based on a value indicating the level of effectiveness for each evaluation indicator expected when each change Ck is implemented as a countermeasure against the assumed risk Ri. Examples of evaluation indicators include inventory turnover rate, raw material waste rate, CO2 reduction rate, and customer satisfaction.

[0189] As a result, the countermeasure decision device 201 can use various indicators such as inventory turnover rate and CO2 reduction rate to evaluate the effects of each change Ck as a countermeasure against the assumed risk Ri, and accurately identify the risk-specific effects of each change Ck.

[0190] Furthermore, according to the countermeasure decision device 201, commonality effects can be identified for each change Ck based on information indicating whether or not each change Ck is effective against each risk Ri from R1 to Rm.

[0191] This allows the countermeasure decision device 201 to accurately identify the commonalities effect of each change Ck by considering whether or not each change Ck is effective against each risk Ri.

[0192] Furthermore, according to the countermeasure decision device 201, it is possible to identify the cost-benefit ratio for the assumed risk Ri itself obtained when each change Ck is made, as a risk-specific effect. In addition, according to the countermeasure decision device 201, it is possible to identify the cost-benefit ratio common to the assumed risk Ri and other risks among risks R1 to Rm, as a commonality effect.

[0193] This allows the countermeasure decision device 201 to calculate the priority of each change Ck, taking into account the magnitude of the results obtained for the expenses incurred.

[0194] Furthermore, according to the countermeasure decision device 201, when the assumed risk includes two or more risks, and changes C1 to Cn are made to the supply chain network SC# as a countermeasure against the assumed risk, for each change Ck of changes C1 to Cn, the risk-specific effect (first effect) on the risk Ri itself obtained when each change Ck is made can be identified for each risk Ri included in the assumed risk, and the commonality effect (second effect) that is common to risk Ri among risks R1 to Rm and other risks. Then, according to the countermeasure decision device 201, the priority of each change Ck in changes C1 to Cn can be calculated based on the risk-specific effect and commonality effect identified for each risk Ri included in the assumed risk for each change Ck.

[0195] This allows the countermeasure decision device 201 to calculate the priority of each change Ck, taking into account cases where multiple risks occur simultaneously or in a chain reaction.

[0196] Furthermore, the countermeasure decision device 201 can output the priority of each calculated change Ck in correspondence with the assumed risk Ri.

[0197] This allows the countermeasure decision device 201 to present information that enables it to determine the priority order in which each change Ck should be implemented.

[0198] Based on these considerations, the countermeasure decision device 201 allows for the creation of change plans that consider the effects on the entire supply chain, ensuring that even if the anticipated risks do not ultimately occur, the efforts (changes) made up to that point are not wasted. For example, even if a user is unable to implement multiple required changes at once due to constraints such as budget, time, and human resources, they can prioritize implementing changes that will not be wasted on the entire supply chain.

[0199] The countermeasure determination method described in this embodiment can be implemented by executing a pre-prepared program on a computer such as a personal computer or workstation. This countermeasure determination program is recorded on a computer-readable recording medium such as a hard disk, flexible disk, CD-ROM, DVD, or USB memory, and is executed when read from the recording medium by a computer. This countermeasure determination program may also be distributed via a network such as the Internet.

[0200] Furthermore, the information processing device 101 (countermeasure decision device 201) described in this embodiment can also be realized using application-specific ICs such as standard cells and structured ASICs (Application Specific Integrated Circuits), or PLDs (Programmable Logic Devices) such as FPGAs.

[0201] With regard to the embodiments described above, the following additional information is disclosed.

[0202] (Note 1) When making multiple changes to the supply chain network as a countermeasure against a specific risk among several risks, For each of the aforementioned multiple changes, identify the first effect on the specific risk itself and the second effect common to the specific risk and other risks different from the aforementioned specific risk, which are obtained when the change is made. For each of the aforementioned changes, the priority of each of the aforementioned changes is calculated based on the identified first effect and second effect. A method for determining countermeasures, characterized in that the processing is performed by a computer.

[0203] (Note 2) The computer performs a process to obtain the importance of the specific risk mentioned above. The calculation process described above is: Based on the identified first and second effects and the acquired importance, the priority of each change is calculated. The method for determining countermeasures as described in Appendix 1, characterized by the features described herein.

[0204] (Note 3) The process for identifying the first effect is: The method for determining countermeasures according to Appendix 1 or 2, characterized in that, for each of the aforementioned changes, the first effect is identified based on a value indicating the level of effectiveness for each evaluation indicator expected when each of the aforementioned changes is made as a countermeasure against the specific risk.

[0205] (Note 4) The process for identifying the second effect is as follows: A method for determining countermeasures according to any one of the appendices 1 to 3, characterized in that, for each of the aforementioned changes, the second effect is identified based on information indicating whether or not the change is effective against each of the aforementioned multiple risks.

[0206] (Note 5) When the aforementioned specific risk includes two or more risks, and when making multiple changes to the supply chain network as a countermeasure against the aforementioned specific risk, For each of the aforementioned multiple changes, for each of the two or more risks, identify the first effect on the respective risk itself obtained by making the change, and the second effect common to each of the aforementioned risks and other risks different from the respective risks among the multiple risks. For each of the aforementioned changes, the priority of each of the aforementioned changes is calculated based on the first and second effects identified for each of the aforementioned risks. A method for determining countermeasures according to any one of the appendices 1 to 4, characterized in that the processing is performed by the computer.

[0207] (Note 6) The method for determining countermeasures according to Note 2, characterized in that the importance of the particular risk is determined according to the probability of the particular risk occurring.

[0208] (Note 7) The method for determining countermeasures according to Note 2, characterized in that the importance of the particular risk is determined according to the magnitude of the business impact if the particular risk is not addressed when the particular risk occurs.

[0209] (Note 8) The first effect described above is expressed by the cost-benefit ratio to the specific risk itself obtained when each of the above changes is made. The second effect described above is represented by the cost-benefit ratio common to the specific risks and other risks obtained when each of the above changes is made. A method for determining countermeasures as described in any one of the appendices 1 to 7, characterized by the above.

[0210] (Note 9) Output the priority of each of the above changes calculated in association with the above-mentioned specific risks. A method for determining countermeasures according to any one of the appendices 1 to 8, characterized in that the processing is performed by the computer.

[0211] (Note 10) When making multiple changes to the supply chain network as a countermeasure against a specific risk among several risks, For each of the aforementioned multiple changes, identify the first effect on the specific risk itself and the second effect common to the specific risk and other risks different from the aforementioned specific risk, which are obtained when the change is made. For each of the aforementioned changes, the priority of each of the aforementioned changes is calculated based on the identified first effect and second effect. A program for determining countermeasures, characterized by having a computer perform the processing. [Explanation of Symbols]

[0212] 101 Information Processing Device 200 Information Processing Systems 201 Countermeasure Decision Device 202 Client Devices 210 Network 300 bus 301 CPU 302 memory 303 Disk Drive 304 disks 305 Communication I / F 306 Portable recording medium interface 307 Portable recording media 500 Control Unit 501 Acquisition Department 502 Reception Department 503 First calculation unit 504 Specific part 505 Second calculation unit 506 Output section 700,1300 Risk-based effectiveness information 800 Commonality Effect Information 1000,1100 priority table 1600 Output Result Change C1~Cn,Ck p1~p3 priority R1~Rm,Ri Risk Ri (Assumed Risk)

Claims

1. In order to address a specific risk among several risks, when making several changes to the supply chain network, For each of the aforementioned multiple changes, identify the first effect on the specific risk itself and the second effect common to the specific risk and other risks different from the aforementioned specific risk, which are obtained when the change is made. For each of the aforementioned changes, the priority of each of the aforementioned changes is calculated based on the identified first effect and second effect. A method for determining countermeasures, characterized in that the processing is performed by a computer.

2. The computer performs a process to obtain the importance of the aforementioned specific risk. The calculation process described above is: Based on the identified first effect and second effect and the acquired importance, the priority of each change is calculated. The method for determining countermeasures according to feature 1.

3. The process for identifying the first effect is: The method for determining countermeasures according to claim 1, characterized in that, for each of the aforementioned changes, the first effect is identified based on a value indicating the level of effectiveness for each evaluation indicator expected when each of the aforementioned changes is made as a countermeasure against the specific risk.

4. The process for identifying the second effect described above is: The method for determining countermeasures according to claim 1, characterized in that, for each of the aforementioned changes, the second effect is identified based on information indicating whether or not the change is effective against each of the multiple risks if the change is made.

5. When the aforementioned specific risk includes two or more risks, and when making multiple changes to the supply chain network as a countermeasure against the aforementioned specific risk, For each of the aforementioned multiple changes, for each of the two or more risks, identify the first effect on the respective risk itself obtained when the change is made, and the second effect common to each of the aforementioned risks and other risks different from the respective risks among the multiple risks. For each of the aforementioned changes, the priority of each of the aforementioned changes is calculated based on the first and second effects identified for each of the aforementioned risks. The method for determining countermeasures according to claim 1, characterized in that the processing is performed by the computer.

6. The method for determining countermeasures according to claim 2, characterized in that the importance of the particular risk is determined according to the probability of the particular risk occurring.

7. Output the priority of each of the aforementioned changes, calculated in association with the aforementioned specific risks. The method for determining countermeasures according to any one of claims 1 to 6, characterized in that the processing is performed by the computer.

8. In order to address a specific risk among several risks, when making several changes to the supply chain network, For each of the aforementioned multiple changes, identify the first effect on the specific risk itself and the second effect common to the specific risk and other risks different from the aforementioned specific risk, which are obtained when the change is made. For each of the aforementioned changes, the priority of each of the aforementioned changes is calculated based on the identified first effect and second effect. A program for determining countermeasures, characterized by having a computer perform the processing.

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