Power generation estimation device

Abstract

To provide a generated amount of power estimation device with which it is possible to determine an estimation formula to estimate the generated amount of power that is generated by a solar panel in a prescribed district.SOLUTION: The generated amount of power estimation device is provided with: an input unit 110 to which information about an estimation formula building district that includes an installation range in which a photovoltaic power generation unit is installed is input; an extraction unit 120 that extracts a first explanatory variable relating to an effective space that contributes to photovoltaic power generation, a second explanatory variable relating to a site area in the installation range, and a third explanatory variable relating to the height in the installation range, on the basis of the district information; and an estimation formula creation unit 130 that determines an estimation formula to calculate the estimate value of the generated amount of power that is generated by the photovoltaic power generation unit in the estimation formula building district, which is a polynomial including the first, second and third explanatory variables, the estimation formula creation unit 130 acquiring the generated amount of power that is generated by the photovoltaic power generation unit in the estimation formula building district, and determining an estimation formula on the basis of the degree of fitness of the acquired generated amount of power to the estimation formula.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an electric power generation amount estimation device. [Background technology]

[0002] In recent years, studies have been underway to install solar panels that convert sunlight into electricity on structures such as houses and buildings. If it is possible to estimate in advance how much solar radiation will be received at the location where the solar panels will be installed, it will be possible to predict the amount of power generated by the installed solar panels and their cost-effectiveness. For this reason, a technique for calculating the amount of solar radiation for a given structure has been proposed (see, for example, Patent Document 1). [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2015-094596 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] The technology described in Patent Document 1 mentioned above can calculate the amount of solar radiation for a specified structure, but there is a problem in that it requires a huge amount of calculation to derive the total power generation, which is the power generated by all solar panels in a specified area.

[0005] The present invention has been made to solve the above-mentioned problems, and aims to provide a power generation estimation device that can derive an estimation formula for estimating the amount of power generated by solar panels in a specified area. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following means. The power generation amount estimation device of the present invention includes an input unit to which information specifying a selected estimation equation development area, which is an area including an installation range in which a photovoltaic power generation unit for estimating a power generation amount is installed, is input; an extraction unit that extracts, based on map information and area information including information on the position and shape of the installation range, a plurality of first explanatory variables related to an available space contributing to photovoltaic power generation in the installation range in the estimation equation development area, a plurality of second explanatory variables related to a site area in the installation range, and a plurality of third explanatory variables related to a height in the installation range; and an extraction unit that extracts at least one first explanatory variable having a first coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the first explanatory variable and the first explanatory variable. the estimation formula is a polynomial including a first estimation term of the second explanatory variable and at least one second estimation term having a second coefficient which is a weighting coefficient for the second explanatory variable, and at least one third estimation term having the third explanatory variable and a third coefficient which is a weighting coefficient for the third explanatory variable, and the estimation formula creation unit is characterized by having an estimation formula creation unit that obtains an estimation formula for calculating an estimate of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit in the estimation formula creation area, the estimation formula creation unit obtaining the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit in the estimation formula creation area, and obtaining the estimation formula based on the degree of conformity between the obtained amount of power generation and the estimation formula.

[0007] The power generation estimation device of the present invention can obtain an estimation formula for estimating the amount of power, the estimation formula including a plurality of first explanatory variables related to the effective space for photovoltaic power generation, a plurality of second explanatory variables related to the site area, and a plurality of third explanatory variables related to the height. The difference between the estimated value of the power generation amount calculated by the estimation formula and the power generation amount calculated using the technology described in Patent Document 1 or the like falls within a predetermined range. Therefore, by using the estimation formula, the power generation amount can be estimated with high accuracy like the technology described in Patent Document 1 or the like, without requiring extensive calculations like the technology described in Patent Document 1 or the like.

[0008] In the above invention, the estimation formula creation unit preferably includes: a construction unit that constructs a provisional estimation formula that calculates an estimate of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit in the estimation formula construction area, the provisional estimation formula being a polynomial including at least one first provisional estimation term having the first explanatory variable and a first coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the first explanatory variable, at least one second provisional estimation term having the second explanatory variable and a second coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the second explanatory variable, and at least one third provisional estimation term having the third explanatory variable and a third coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the third explanatory variable; and a calculation unit that selects at least the first explanatory variable, the second explanatory variable, and the third explanatory variable such that a difference between the acquired amount of power generation and a calculated value of the amount of power generation calculated by the provisional estimation formula falls within a predetermined range, and obtains the first coefficient, the second coefficient, and the third coefficient to obtain the estimation formula.

[0009] In this way, the first explanatory variable, the second explanatory variable, and the third explanatory variable are selected from the provisional estimation formula, and the first coefficient, the second coefficient, and the third coefficient are calculated. An estimation formula is calculated from the provisional estimation formula using the selected explanatory variables and the calculated coefficients.

[0010] In the above invention, the estimation formula creation unit includes a first construction unit that constructs a first provisional estimation formula, which is an estimation formula for calculating an estimate of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit in the estimation formula construction region, and is a polynomial including at least one first provisional estimation term having the first explanatory variable and a first coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the first explanatory variable, at least one second provisional estimation term having the second explanatory variable and a second coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the second explanatory variable, and at least one third provisional estimation term having the third explanatory variable and a third coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the third explanatory variable; and a first construction unit that constructs a first provisional estimation formula, which is an estimation formula for calculating an estimate of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit in the estimation formula construction region, a second construction unit that constructs a second provisional estimation formula that is a polynomial including a first term having the first explanatory variable and a first coefficient that is a weighting coefficient of the first explanatory variable selected by the first calculation unit, a second term having the second explanatory variable and a second coefficient that is a weighting coefficient of the second explanatory variable, and a third term having the third explanatory variable and a third coefficient that is a weighting coefficient of the third explanatory variable; and a second calculation unit that obtains an estimation formula by determining the first coefficient, the second coefficient, and the third coefficient such that the difference between the acquired amount of power generation and the calculated value of the amount of power generation calculated by the second provisional estimation formula falls within a predetermined range.

[0011] In this way, the first explanatory variable, the second explanatory variable, and the third explanatory variable are selected using the first provisional estimation formula. The first coefficient, the second coefficient, and the third coefficient are calculated using the second provisional estimation formula constructed using the selected explanatory variables. An estimated formula is calculated from the second provisional estimation formula using the calculated coefficients.

[0012] In the above invention, it is preferable that a selection unit is further provided for selecting the estimation equation construction region, and information specifying the estimation equation construction region selected by the selection unit is input to the input unit.

[0013] In this way, by further providing a selection section for selecting the estimation formula construction region and inputting information identifying the selected estimation formula construction region into the input section, it becomes possible to automate the selection of the estimation formula construction region and make it possible to enhance the process.

[0014] In the inventions relating to the first and second aspects, it is preferable that an extension unit is further provided which obtains a regional power generation estimation formula based on a plurality of estimation formulas obtained based on a plurality of different estimation formula construction regions, and which calculates an estimated value of the power generation in a region including the plurality of different estimation formula construction regions.

[0015] By providing an extension section in this way, it is possible to obtain a regional power generation amount estimation formula for calculating an estimated value of the power generation amount in a region including a plurality of different estimation formula development regions. [Effects of the Invention]

[0016] The power generation amount estimation device of the present invention has the effect of being able to obtain an estimation formula for estimating the amount of power generated by solar panels in a specified area. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0017] [Figure 1] 1 is a block diagram illustrating the configuration of a power generation amount estimation device according to a first embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 2] FIG. 1 is a conceptual diagram illustrating the relationship between areas, estimation equation construction regions, regions, and areas. [Figure 3] 2 is a flowchart illustrating a calculation process for determining an estimation formula in the power generation amount estimation device of FIG. 1. [Figure 4] 2 is a diagram showing the results of estimation of each coefficient by a calculation unit in the power generation amount estimation device of FIG. 1. FIG. [Figure 5] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the relationship between the calculated value and the estimated value of the amount of power generation. [Figure 6] 2 is a diagram showing the estimation results of each coefficient by an extension unit in the power generation amount estimation device of FIG. 1. FIG. [Figure 7]FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the relationship between the calculated value and the estimated value of the amount of power generation. [Figure 8] FIG. 5 is a block diagram illustrating the configuration of a power generation amount estimation device according to a second embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 9] 9 is a flowchart illustrating a calculation process for obtaining an estimation formula in the power generation amount estimation device of FIG. 8. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0018] [First embodiment] A power generation amount estimation device 100 according to a first embodiment of the present invention will be described below with reference to Fig. 1 to Fig. 7. As shown in Fig. 1, the power generation amount estimation device 100 of this embodiment is a device that determines an estimation formula for estimating the amount of power generated by a solar power generation unit such as a solar panel that converts sunlight into electricity, and is a device that determines an estimation formula for estimating the amount of power generation based on at least the installation range in which the solar power generation unit is installed.

[0019] A solar panel may be a module, which is a unit having multiple cells that convert sunlight into electricity, a string, which is a unit having multiple modules, or an array, which is a unit having multiple strings.

[0020] In this embodiment, an example will be described in which the installation range is the building surface. The building surface includes the wall surface, which is the side surface of the building. The building top surface may also include surfaces other than the top surface, which is the top edge surface of the building.

[0021] The installation range may include the above-mentioned building surface, or may include areas other than the building surface. For example, the installation range may include farmland, riverbeds, sidewalks, road surfaces, gardens, and other surfaces on which the solar power generation unit can be installed.

[0022] In this embodiment, the power generation amount estimation device 100 is an information processing device such as a personal computer or server having a CPU (Central Processing Unit), ROM, RAM, input / output interface, etc., for explanation.

[0023] The power generation amount estimation device 100 is also communicably connected to a LiDAR database 170, a basic map information database 180, and a weather database 190 via a known wired or wireless information communication network.

[0024] The LiDAR database 170 is a database that stores aerial LiDAR data. The aerial LiDAR data is topographical data measured using an aircraft, specifically, LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), which uses laser light for measurements. Note that, although this embodiment will be described as an example in which aerial LiDAR data is acquired, topographical data measured using a technology other than LiDAR may also be used.

[0025] The base map information database 180 is a database that stores base map information. The base map information includes electronic maps that include location information of buildings and the like, such as boundaries of public facilities and surveying reference points. In this embodiment, an example will be described in which base map information provided by the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, is used. Note that the base map information may also include information such as building heights and building attributes.

[0026] The weather database 190 is a database that stores meteorological information used to estimate the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit. The stored meteorological information includes cloud cover information from the past five years. In this embodiment, an example will be described in which meteorological information provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency is used.

[0027] The program stored in the storage device such as the ROM described above causes the CPU, ROM, RAM, and input / output interface to cooperate and function as an input unit 110, an extraction unit 120, an estimation formula creation unit 130, an estimation unit 140, a selection unit 150, and an expansion unit 160, as shown in FIG. 1.

[0028] The input unit 110 is an interface into which information specifying the estimation equation construction area A2 selected by the selection unit 150 is input. The estimation equation construction area A2 is an area that includes an installation range in which a solar power generation unit that estimates the amount of power generation is installed.

[0029] The extraction unit 120 is a processing unit that extracts a plurality of first explanatory variables, a plurality of second explanatory variables, and a plurality of third explanatory variables based on regional information of the selected estimation equation construction region A2. The regional information is information that includes map information and information on the position and shape of the installation range. The map information is information acquired from the base map information database 180. The information on the position and shape of the installation range is information acquired from the LiDAR database 170.

[0030] The first explanatory variable is a variable related to the effective space contributing to solar power generation within the installation range in the estimation equation construction area A2. bld , S area , R road , and ,R os Contains N bld is the building density (buildings / km 2 ) and S area is the total site area (m 2 ) and R road is the road rate (%), and R os is the non-target space (%).

[0031] The second explanatory variable is a variable related to the building site area within the installation range. bld , σ bld , and CV s Contains: S bld is the average site area (m 2 ) and σ bld is the standard deviation of the site area (m 2 ) and CV s is the coefficient of variation in the site area.

[0032] The third explanatory variable is a variable related to the height of the building in the installation area. bld , σ h , and CVh Contains. bld is the average building height (m), and σ h is the standard deviation of building height (m) in terms of the vertical extent of buildings, and CV h is the coefficient of variation of building height.

[0033] The estimation formula creation unit 130 is a processing unit that obtains an estimation formula for calculating an estimate of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit in the estimation formula creation area A2. The estimation formula creation unit 130 includes a creation unit 131 and a calculation unit 132.

[0034] The estimation formula is a polynomial including at least one first estimation term, at least one second estimation term, and at least one third estimation term. The first estimation term is a term having a first explanatory variable and a first coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the first explanatory variable. The second estimation term is a term having a second explanatory variable and a second coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the second explanatory variable. The third estimation term is a term having a third explanatory variable and a third coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the third explanatory variable.

[0035] The construction unit 131 is a processing unit that constructs a provisional estimation formula, which is a polynomial that calculates an estimate of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation unit in the estimation formula construction region A2, and is used when determining the estimation formula.

[0036] The tentative estimation formula is a polynomial including at least one first tentative estimation term, at least one second tentative estimation term, and at least one third tentative estimation term. The first tentative estimation term is a term having a first explanatory variable and a first coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the first explanatory variable. The second tentative estimation term is a term having a second explanatory variable and a second coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the second explanatory variable. The third tentative estimation term is a term having a third explanatory variable and a third coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the third explanatory variable.

[0037] The calculation unit 132 is a processing unit that performs calculations to determine an estimation equation based on the provisional estimation equation. In the processing in the calculation unit 132, an estimated value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit is acquired from the estimation unit 140. The details of the calculation processing will be described later.

[0038] In the calculation process by the calculation unit 132 to determine the estimation formula, the estimated value acquired from the estimation unit 140 may be used, or the measured value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit may be used.

[0039] The estimation unit 140 is a processing unit that calculates an estimated value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit, which is used to calculate the estimation formula. The calculation process performed by the estimation unit 140 to calculate the estimated amount of power generation can be performed using known calculations. In this embodiment, the description will be given by taking an example in which the estimation unit 140 is provided in the power generation amount estimation device 100, but the estimation unit 140 may also be provided in an information processing terminal such as another personal computer connected to the power generation amount estimation device 100 so that information can be communicated therewith.

[0040] The selection unit 150 is used to select the estimation equation construction region A2. Information identifying the estimation equation construction region A2 is output from the selection unit 150 to the input unit 110. The estimation equation construction region A2 is selected using an input device such as a keyboard or mouse provided in the power generation amount estimation device 100. The selection unit 150 may be provided in the power generation amount estimation device 100, or may be provided in an information processing terminal such as another personal computer connected to the power generation amount estimation device 100 so as to be able to communicate information.

[0041] The expansion unit 160 is a processing unit that performs calculations to obtain a regional power generation amount estimation formula. The regional power generation amount estimation formula is a formula for the region A4 that includes a plurality of different estimation formula construction regions A2, and is a formula for calculating an estimated value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation units included in the region A4.

[0042] Next, we will explain the calculation process for determining the estimation formula in the power generation amount estimation device 100 configured as described above. First, we will explain the area A1, estimation formula construction region A2, region A3, and region A4, which are units of area used when determining the estimation formula, with reference to Figure 2.

[0043] The area A1 is a unit of area for which an estimation equation is constructed. It is a specific unit of area that has been cut out. In this embodiment, the area A1 is an area unit having an area of ​​1 km x 1 km.

[0044] The area A1 may have the above-mentioned size of 1 km x 1 km, or may be larger or smaller than 1 km x 1 km. It may also have a square shape such as 1 km x 1 km, or may have some other shape.

[0045] The estimation formula construction region A2 is a region that includes at least one area A1 and is the target for constructing an estimation formula. In this embodiment, one estimation formula construction region A2 includes a collection of three areas A1. This will be described as an example in which one collection includes six areas A1.

[0046] The number of areas A1 included in the estimation formula construction region A2 may be the above-mentioned 18, or it may be more or less than 18. Furthermore, the areas A1 included in the estimation formula construction region A2 may or may not form an aggregate.

[0047] The estimation formula construction area A2 is also a rough classification of townscapes and lifestyles. In this embodiment, the estimation formula construction area A2 is described as being classified into urban areas, waterfront areas, residential areas, etc.

[0048] Examples of urban areas include Otemachi, Kasumigaseki, and Toranomon. Examples of waterfront areas include Odaiba, the International Exhibition Center, and Toyosu. Examples of residential areas include Kita Ward, Adachi Ward, Katsushika Ward, and Chofu. Note that there are no particular limitations on the size or shape of the estimation formula construction area A2.

[0049] Region A3 is a general grouping of economic zones, living zones, etc. that includes at least one estimation equation development region A2. In this embodiment, the region A3 is described as Hokkaido, Tohoku, Kanto (Tokyo), Chubu, Kinki, Chugoku / Shikoku, Kyushu, etc.

[0050] Area A4 defines a wider range than area A3 and is a set of defined areas A3. If there are multiple areas A3, it includes all of the areas A3. An example of area A4 is Japan.

[0051] The process for determining area A1, estimation equation construction region A2, region A3, and region A4 can be any known process, and the content of the process is not limited. For example, the process for determining area A1, estimation equation construction region A2, region A3, and region A4 may be performed individually, or the process for determining area A1, estimation equation construction region A2, region A3, and region A4 may be performed according to predetermined rules.

[0052] The process of determining area A1, estimated equation construction region A2, region A3, and region A4 may be performed separately from the calculation process of determining the estimated equation. In this case, information on the determined area A1, estimated equation construction region A2, region A3, and region A4 is stored, and the stored information on area A1, estimated equation construction region A2, region A3, and region A4 is used when performing the calculation process of determining the estimated equation.

[0053] Furthermore, when performing the calculation process to obtain the estimated formula, the process to define the area A1, the estimated formula construction region A2, the region A3, and the region A4 may be performed simultaneously. For example, the process to define the area A1, the estimated formula construction region A2, the region A3, and the region A4 may be performed first, followed by the calculation process to obtain the estimated formula.

[0054] Next, the calculation process for obtaining the estimation formula will be described with reference to FIG. First, the selection unit 150 performs a process of selecting an estimated equation construction region A2 (S11). Information identifying the selected estimated equation construction region A2 is output from the selection unit 150 to the input unit 110. The information identifying the estimated equation construction region A2 is output from the input unit 110 to the extraction unit 120.

[0055] When the estimation equation construction region A2 is selected, the extraction unit 120 performs a process of extracting explanatory variables (S12). The extracted explanatory variables include the first explanatory variable N bld , S area , R road , and ,R os , the second explanatory variable S bld , σ bld , and CV s , and the third explanatory variable, h bld , σ h , and CV h Includes:

[0056] The explanatory variables are extracted from the basic map information database 180 and the LiDAR database 170 based on information that identifies the estimation equation construction region A2. In other words, explanatory variables related to multiple areas A1 included in the selected estimation equation construction region A2 are extracted.

[0057] When the explanatory variables are extracted, the construction unit 131 of the estimation equation creation unit 130 performs a process of constructing a provisional estimation equation (S13). Specifically, the construction unit 131 performs a process of constructing a provisional estimation equation shown in the following equation (1).

[0058]

number

[0059] C in formula (1) area is the amount of electricity generated per day (kWh / area). a0 is the regularization term. a1N bld , a2S area , a3R road , and a4R osis the first estimated term, and a1, a2, a3, and a4 are the first coefficients. bld , a6σ bld , and a7CV s is the first estimated term, and a5, a6, and a7 are the second coefficients. bld , a9σ h , and a 10 CV h is the third estimated term, and a8, a9, and a 10 is the third coefficient.

[0060] Meanwhile, the estimation unit 140 performs a process to obtain an estimated value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit (S14). The estimated value is the amount of power estimated to be generated by the solar power generation unit included in the estimation formula construction area A2. The estimation unit 140 performs a process to obtain the estimated value using meteorological information acquired from the weather database 190.

[0061] After the provisional estimation formula is constructed in the process of S13 and the estimated value is obtained in the process of S14, the calculation unit 132 of the estimation formula creation unit 130 performs calculation processing to obtain the estimation formula (S15). Specifically, using the obtained estimated value of the power generation amount and the constructed provisional estimation formula, explanatory variables to be included in the provisional estimation formula are selected and coefficients are estimated, and processing to obtain the estimation formula is performed.

[0062] In this embodiment, the calculation unit 132 performs processing to obtain an estimated equation by Lasso regression. The calculation of the estimated equation is performed using AICc. AICc is the corrected Akaike information criterion.

[0063] An example will be described in which estimated values ​​for January and July in Chofu, Katsushika Ward, Otemachi, Kasumigaseki, Odaiba, and the International Exhibition Center are used in selecting explanatory variables in the calculation unit 132. Chofu and Katsushika Ward are classified as residential areas, Otemachi and Kasumigaseki are classified as urban centers, and Odaiba and the International Exhibition Center are classified as waterfront areas.

[0064] An example will be described in which the following explanatory variables are selected by the calculation unit 132: os) and the average land area (S bld ) and the standard deviation of building height (σ h ) and seasonal fixed effects (M i ) and an example where are selected will be described.

[0065] Non-target space rate (R os ) is an explanatory variable for the effective space for power generation in the solar power generation section, and is the ratio of the area that does not contribute to power generation to the target area. bld ) is an explanatory variable for the horizontal spread of buildings and is the average of the site area. The standard deviation of building heights (σ h ) is an explanatory variable for the vertical spread of buildings. i ) is an explanatory variable for seasonal variations, where i represents the month, such as January or July.

[0066] The estimation formula based on the explanatory variables selected by the calculation unit 132 is shown below.

number

[0067] The calculation unit 132 performs a calculation to estimate the value of each coefficient in the above-mentioned formula (2). In the estimation of the value of each coefficient in the calculation unit 132, an example will be described in which estimated values ​​for January, July, and October in Chofu, Katsushika Ward, Otemachi, Kasumigaseki, Odaiba, and the International Exhibition Center are used.

[0068] The estimation results of each coefficient by the calculation unit 132 are as shown in Fig. 4. Regarding the above-mentioned formula (2), the relationship between the calculated value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit using the estimated values ​​of each coefficient shown in Fig. 4 and the estimated value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit obtained by the estimation unit 140 is shown in Fig. 5.

[0069] In Figure 5, the lightly hatched plots represent the amount of power generated in residential areas (Chofu and Katsushika Ward). The heavily hatched plots represent the amount of power generated in the city center (Otemachi and Kasumigaseki). The solid plots represent the amount of power generated in the waterfront area (Odaiba and the International Exhibition Center). Furthermore, the circular plots represent the amount of power generated in January. The triangular plots represent the amount of power generated in July. The square plots represent the amount of power generated in October.

[0070] The RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) between the calculated value of the power generation amount using the above-mentioned formula (2) shown in FIG. 5 and the estimated value obtained by the estimation unit 140 is 0.096. 2 (coefficient of determination) is 0.99.

[0071] When the calculation unit 132 obtains the estimation formula (formula (2)), the expansion unit 160 performs a calculation to obtain a regional power generation estimation formula, which is an estimation formula for the region A4 (S16). The expansion unit 160 obtains an estimation formula for the region A3, and performs a calculation to obtain a regional power generation estimation formula for the region A4 based on the obtained estimation formula for the region A3. In addition, the expansion unit 160 uses an estimated value different from the estimated value used when obtaining formula (2).

[0072] In this embodiment, an example will be described in which the expansion unit 160 obtains an estimation formula for Tokyo, which is an area A3, using estimated values ​​for Adachi Ward and Toranomon in January and July, and an estimated value for Toyosu in July. Adachi Ward is classified as a residential area, Toranomon is classified as a city center, and Toyosu is classified as a waterfront area. Area A3 may be a larger or smaller area than Tokyo. The expansion unit 160 may further obtain an estimation formula for area A3 outside Tokyo.

[0073] The expansion unit 160 performs a calculation to obtain an estimation formula for Tokyo, which is area A3, by re-estimating the values ​​of each coefficient in equation (2). The estimation results of each coefficient by the expansion unit 160 are as shown in Figure 6. Furthermore, for equation (2) above, Figure 7 shows the relationship between the calculated value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit using the estimated values ​​of each coefficient shown in Figure 6 and the estimated value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit obtained by the estimation unit 140.

[0074] In Figure 7, the dots in the open squares indicate the amount of power generated in residential areas (Adachi Ward). The crosses in the open squares indicate the amount of power generated in the city center (Toranomon). The open squares indicate the amount of power generated in the waterfront area (Toyosu).

[0075] The RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) between the calculated value of the power generation amount using the above-mentioned formula (2) shown in FIG. 7 and the estimated value obtained by the estimation unit 140 is 0.12. 2 (coefficient of determination) is 0.98.

[0076] Furthermore, the expansion unit 160 performs a calculation process to obtain a regional power generation estimation formula for Japan, which is the region A4, using estimated values ​​different from the estimated values ​​used to obtain the estimation formula for Tokyo, which is the region A3, in the same way as when obtaining the estimation formula for Tokyo, which is the region A3. Note that the region A4 may be an area smaller than Japan, such as the Kanto region, or may be an area larger than Japan, such as East Asia.

[0077] When the regional power generation estimation formula is obtained by the extension unit 160, the calculation process for obtaining the estimation formula is completed by the power generation estimation device 100. As described above, the process may be completed up to the process of obtaining the regional power generation estimation formula by the extension unit 160, or the calculation process may be completed up to the process of obtaining the estimation formula by the calculation unit 132.

[0078] The power generation amount estimation device 100 configured as described above can obtain an estimation equation (Equation (2)) for estimating the amount of power, which includes a plurality of first explanatory variables related to the effective space for photovoltaic power generation, a plurality of second explanatory variables related to the site area, and a plurality of third explanatory variables related to the height. The difference between the estimated value of the power generation amount calculated by the estimation equation and the power generation amount calculated using the technology described in Patent Document 1 or the like falls within a predetermined range. Therefore, by using the estimation equation (Equation (2)), the power generation amount can be estimated with high accuracy like the technology described in Patent Document 1 or the like, without requiring extensive calculations like the technology described in Patent Document 1 or the like.

[0079] By providing the estimation formula creation unit 130 with a construction unit 131 and a calculation unit 132, the first explanatory variable, the second explanatory variable, and the third explanatory variable are selected from the provisional estimation formula (formula (1)), and the first coefficient, the second coefficient, and the third coefficient are calculated. The selected explanatory variables and the calculated coefficients are used to calculate the estimation formula (formula (2)) from the provisional estimation formula (formula (1)).

[0080] By further providing a selection unit 150 for selecting the estimated formula construction region A2 and inputting information identifying the selected estimated formula construction region A2 into the input unit 110, it becomes possible to automate the selection of the estimated formula construction region A2, thereby making it possible to enhance the process.

[0081] By further providing the extension section 160, it is possible to obtain a regional power generation amount estimation formula for calculating an estimated value of the power generation amount in a region including a plurality of different estimation formula construction regions A2.

[0082] Second Embodiment Next, a power generation amount estimation device 200 according to a second embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to Figures 8 and 9. The basic configuration of the power generation amount estimation device 200 of this embodiment is similar to that of the first embodiment, but differs from the first embodiment in the processing in the estimation equation creation unit 230. In this embodiment, the processing in the estimation equation creation unit 230 will be described using Figures 8 and 9, and other descriptions will be omitted.

[0083] The power generation amount estimation device 200 includes an input unit 110, an extraction unit 120, an estimation equation creation unit 230, a selection unit 150, and an expansion unit 160. The estimation equation creation unit 230 includes a first construction unit 231, a first calculation unit 232, a second construction unit 233, and a second calculation unit 234.

[0084] The first construction unit 231 is a processing unit that constructs a first provisional estimation formula, which is a polynomial that calculates an estimate of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation unit in the estimation formula construction region A2, and is used when determining the estimation formula.

[0085] The first provisional estimation formula is a polynomial including at least one first provisional estimation term, at least one second provisional estimation term, and at least one third provisional estimation term. The first provisional estimation term is a term having a first explanatory variable and a first coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the first explanatory variable. The second provisional estimation term is a term having a second explanatory variable and a second coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the second explanatory variable. The third provisional estimation term is a term having a third explanatory variable and a third coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the third explanatory variable.

[0086] The first calculation unit 232 is a processing unit that performs calculations to select at least the first explanatory variable, the second explanatory variable, and the third explanatory variable in the first provisional estimation formula. In the processing in the first calculation unit 232, an estimated value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit is obtained from the estimation unit 140. The details of the calculation processing will be described later.

[0087] In the calculation process in the first calculation unit 232, the estimated value acquired from the estimation unit 140 may be used, or the measured value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit may be used.

[0088] The second construction unit 233 is a processing unit that constructs a second provisional estimation formula based on the selection result of the first calculation unit 232. The second provisional estimation formula is a polynomial that includes a first term having a first explanatory variable selected by the first calculation unit 232, a second term having a second explanatory variable, and a third term having a third explanatory variable.

[0089] The first term has a first explanatory variable and a first coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the first explanatory variable. The second term has a second explanatory variable and a second coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the second explanatory variable. The third term has a third explanatory variable and a third coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the third explanatory variable.

[0090] The second calculation unit 234 is a processing unit that performs calculation processing to obtain an estimation formula by calculating the first coefficient, the second coefficient, and the third coefficient in the second provisional estimation formula. In the processing in the second calculation unit 234, an estimate of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit is acquired from the estimation unit 140. The details of the calculation processing will be described later.

[0091] In the calculation process in the second calculation unit 234, the estimated value acquired from the estimation unit 140 may be used, or the measured value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit may be used.

[0092] Next, the calculation process for obtaining the estimated formula will be described with reference to Fig. 9. Note that the same calculation processes as those for obtaining the estimated formula in the first embodiment will be denoted by the same reference numerals and will not be described again.

[0093] First, the selection unit 150 selects the estimated equation construction region A2 (S11). Once the estimated equation construction region A2 is selected, the extraction unit 120 performs a process of extracting explanatory variables (S12).

[0094] When the explanatory variables are extracted, the first construction unit 231 of the estimation equation creation unit 230 performs a process of constructing a first provisional estimation equation (S113). Specifically, the first construction unit 231 performs a process of constructing a provisional estimation equation shown in the following equation (3).

[0095]

number

[0096] C in Equation (3) area is the amount of electricity generated per day (kWh / area). a0 is the regularization term. a1N bld, a2S area , a3R road , and a4R os is the first estimated term, and a1, a2, a3, and a4 are the first coefficients. bld , a6σ bld , and a7CV s is the first estimated term, and a5, a6, and a7 are the second coefficients. bld , a9σ h , and a 10 CV h is the third estimated term, and a8, a9, and a 10 is the third coefficient.

[0097] After the first provisional estimation formula (formula (3)) is constructed in the process of S113 and the estimated value is obtained in the process of S14, the first calculation unit 232 of the estimation formula creation unit 230 performs a calculation process to select at least a first explanatory variable, a second explanatory variable, and a third explanatory variable in the first provisional estimation formula (formula (3)) (S114). Specifically, at least the first explanatory variable, the second explanatory variable, and the third explanatory variable are selected based on the degree of conformance between the first provisional estimation formula (formula (3)) and the acquired power generation amount.

[0098] In selecting explanatory variables in the first calculation unit 232, an example will be described in which estimated values ​​for January and July in Chofu, Katsushika Ward, Otemachi, Kasumigaseki, Odaiba, and the International Exhibition Center are used, as in the first embodiment.

[0099] In this embodiment, an example will be described in which the following explanatory variables are selected by the first calculation unit 232: os ) and the average land area (S bld ) and the standard deviation of building height (σ h ) and seasonal fixed effects (M i ) and an example where are selected will be described.

[0100] When the first calculation unit 232 selects the next explanatory variable, the second construction unit 233 of the estimation equation creation unit 230 performs a process of constructing a second provisional estimation equation (S115) based on the selection result of the first calculation unit 232. Specifically, the second construction unit 233 performs a process of constructing a provisional estimation equation shown in the following equation (4).

[0101]

number

[0102] When the second construction unit 233 constructs the second provisional estimation formula (formula (4)), the second calculation unit 234 performs calculation processing to obtain the first coefficient, the second coefficient, and the third coefficient in the second provisional estimation formula (formula (4)) to obtain the estimation formula (S116).

[0103] In the estimation of the values ​​of each coefficient in the second calculation unit 234, an example will be described in which estimated values ​​for January, July, and October in Chofu, Katsushika Ward, Otemachi, Kasumigaseki, Odaiba, and the International Exhibition Center are used.

[0104] The second calculation unit 234 performs calculation processing to find the first coefficient, the second coefficient, and the third coefficient such that the difference between the estimated value of the power generation amount obtained in the processing of S14 and the calculated value of the power generation amount calculated using the second provisional estimation formula falls within a predetermined range.

[0105] Once the estimation formula is determined by the second calculation unit 234, the extension unit 160 performs calculation to determine the regional power generation amount estimation formula (S16). Once the regional power generation amount estimation formula is determined by the extension unit 160, the calculation process to determine the estimation formula by the power generation amount estimation device 100 is completed.

[0106] According to the power generation amount estimation device 200 configured as described above, the first explanatory variable, the second explanatory variable, and the third explanatory variable are selected using the first provisional estimation formula (formula (3)). The first coefficient, the second coefficient, and the third coefficient are calculated using the second provisional estimation formula (formula (4)) constructed using the selected explanatory variables. The calculated coefficients are used to calculate an estimation formula from the second provisional estimation formula (formula (4)). [Explanation of symbols]

[0107] REFERENCE SIGNS LIST 100, 200... power generation amount estimation device, 110... input unit, 120... extraction unit, 130, 230... estimation formula creation unit, 131... construction unit, 132... calculation unit, 150... selection unit, 160... expansion unit, 231... first construction unit, 232... first calculation unit, 233... second construction unit, 234... second calculation unit

Claims

1. an input unit into which information specifying a selected estimation formula development region is input, the region including an installation range in which a photovoltaic power generation unit that estimates the amount of power generation is installed; an extraction unit that extracts, based on map information and regional information including information on the position and shape of the installation range, a plurality of first explanatory variables related to an effective space contributing to photovoltaic power generation in the installation range in the estimation equation development region, a plurality of second explanatory variables related to a site area in the installation range, and a plurality of third explanatory variables related to a height in the installation range; an estimation formula creation unit that determines an estimation formula for calculating an estimated value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit in the estimation formula development region, the estimation formula being a polynomial including at least one first estimation term having the first explanatory variable and a first coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the first explanatory variable, at least one second estimation term having the second explanatory variable and a second coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the second explanatory variable, and at least one third estimation term having the third explanatory variable and a third coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the third explanatory variable, the estimation formula creation unit determining the estimation formula based on a degree of conformance between the estimation formula and the acquired amount of power generation; The power generation amount estimation device is provided with:

2. The estimation formula creation unit includes: a construction unit that constructs a provisional estimation formula that calculates an estimate of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation unit in the estimation formula construction region, the provisional estimation formula being a polynomial including at least one first provisional estimation term having the first explanatory variable and a first coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the first explanatory variable, at least one second provisional estimation term having the second explanatory variable and a second coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the second explanatory variable, and at least one third provisional estimation term having the third explanatory variable and a third coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the third explanatory variable; a calculation unit that selects at least the first explanatory variable, the second explanatory variable, and the third explanatory variable such that a difference between the acquired power generation amount and a calculated value of the power generation amount calculated by the provisional estimation equation falls within a predetermined range, and calculates the first coefficient, the second coefficient, and the third coefficient to calculate the estimation equation; 2. The power generation amount estimation device according to claim 1, further comprising:

3. The estimation formula creation unit includes: a first construction unit that constructs a first provisional estimation formula that is an estimation formula for calculating an estimate of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation unit in the estimation formula construction region, the first provisional estimation formula being a polynomial including at least one first provisional estimation term having the first explanatory variable and a first coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the first explanatory variable, at least one second provisional estimation term having the second explanatory variable and a second coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the second explanatory variable, and at least one third provisional estimation term having the third explanatory variable and a third coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the third explanatory variable; and a first calculation unit that selects at least the first explanatory variable, the second explanatory variable, and the third explanatory variable based on a degree of conformance between the first provisional estimation formula and the acquired power generation amount; a second construction unit that constructs a second provisional estimation equation that is a polynomial including: a first term having the first explanatory variable selected by the first calculation unit and a first coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the first explanatory variable; a second term having the second explanatory variable and a second coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the second explanatory variable; and a third term having the third explanatory variable and a third coefficient that is a weighting coefficient for the third explanatory variable; a second calculation unit that calculates the first coefficient, the second coefficient, and the third coefficient so that a difference between the acquired power generation amount and a calculated value of the power generation amount calculated by the second provisional estimation equation falls within a predetermined range, and calculates an estimation equation; 2. The power generation amount estimation device according to claim 1, further comprising:

4. a selection unit for selecting the estimation formula construction region is further provided; 4. The power generation amount estimation device according to claim 1, wherein information specifying the estimation equation development region selected by the selection unit is input to the input unit.

5. The power generation estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 4, further comprising an extension unit for determining a regional power generation estimation formula for calculating an estimated value of the power generation in a region including the plurality of different construction areas based on a plurality of the estimation formulas determined based on a plurality of different estimation formula construction areas.

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