Prediction device, prediction system, prediction method, and program

Abstract

A prediction device (10) comprises an acquisition unit (110) and a prediction unit (130). The acquisition unit (110) acquires the transition of a prediction value of a first power supply amount. The first power supply amount is the amount of supplied power to a supply target from a power supply source including at least one piece of solar power generation equipment. When a prescribed condition is satisfied, the prediction unit (130) uses an image to correct or re-predict the transition of the prediction value of the first power supply amount. The image has been obtained by imaging the sky in the surroundings of the solar power generation equipment.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a prediction device, a prediction system, a prediction method, and a recording medium.

Background Art

[0002] Since the power generation amount of photovoltaic power generation equipment depends on the weather and the like, the development of power generation prediction technology has been carried out.

[0003] Patent Document 1 describes predicting fluctuations in the power generation amount of a photovoltaic power generation panel from an image of the sky taken by a camera. Further, it is described that when the predicted fluctuation is greater than or equal to a predetermined value, fluctuations in the power input to the power conversion unit are mitigated by discharging or charging in the power storage unit.

[0004] Patent Document 2 describes controlling the discharge of a battery facility so as not to exceed the connection capacity to a commercial power system using the result of predicting the power generation power of the power generation facility. Further, it is described that the solar radiation amount is predicted using an image directly representing the positional relationship between the position of the sun and the position of clouds in the entire sky.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0005]

Patent Document 1

Patent Document 2

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0006] <m In the technologies of Patent Documents 1 and 2 described above, it was necessary to always perform highly accurate power generation prediction for charge-discharge control. Therefore, the processing load for prediction was high.

[0007] One example of the object of the present invention is to provide a prediction device, prediction system, prediction method, and recording medium that have a low processing load for predicting the amount of electricity generated by solar power generation, in view of the above-mentioned problems. [Means for solving the problem]

[0008] According to one aspect of the present invention, A means for obtaining the trend of predicted values ​​of the first amount of electricity supplied to a target from a power supply source including at least one solar power generation facility, The system includes a prediction means that, when certain conditions are met, corrects or re-predicts the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply using an image obtained by photographing the sky surrounding the solar power generation facility. A prediction device is provided.

[0009] According to one aspect of the present invention, The above prediction device, The prediction device includes a means for taking photographs of the sky surrounding the solar power generation equipment when it is determined that the predetermined conditions are met. A prediction system is provided.

[0010] According to one aspect of the present invention, One or more computers Obtain the predicted trend of the amount of electricity supplied to the target recipient from a power source that includes at least one solar power generation facility. When predetermined conditions are met, the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply is corrected or re-predicted using an image obtained by photographing the sky surrounding the solar power generation facility. A prediction method is provided.

[0011] According to one aspect of the present invention, A recording medium for storing a program that causes a computer to execute a prediction method, The prediction method involves the computer, Obtain the predicted trend of the amount of electricity supplied to the target recipient from a power source that includes at least one solar power generation facility. When the predetermined conditions are satisfied, a prediction method for correcting or re-predicting the transition of the predicted value of the first power supply amount using an image obtained by photographing the space around the photovoltaic power generation facility A recording medium is provided.

Advantages of the Invention

[0012] According to one aspect of the present invention, a prediction device, a prediction system, a prediction method, and a recording medium with a low processing load for predicting the power generation amount by photovoltaic power generation can be obtained.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0013] [Figure 1] It is a diagram showing an outline of a prediction device according to an embodiment. [Figure 2] It is a diagram for explaining power supply to a supply target. [Figure 3] It is a block diagram illustrating the configuration of a prediction device according to an embodiment. [Figure 4] It is a diagram showing an example of a graph generated by an output unit. [Figure 5] It is a diagram showing an example of an image displayed by notification information of an output unit. [Figure 6] It is a diagram illustrating the configuration of a prediction system according to an embodiment. [Figure 7] It is a diagram illustrating a computer for realizing a prediction device. [Figure 8] It is a flowchart showing an outline of a prediction method executed by a prediction device according to an embodiment. [Figure 9] It is a flowchart illustrating the flow of a prediction method according to an embodiment.

Modes for Carrying Out the Invention

[0014] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In all the drawings, the same components are denoted by the same reference numerals, and the description will be omitted as appropriate.

[0015] (Embodiment) Figure 1 is a diagram showing an overview of a prediction device 10 according to an embodiment. The prediction device 10 comprises an acquisition unit 110 and a prediction unit 130. The acquisition unit 110 acquires the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount. The first power supply amount is the amount of power supplied to the target from a power supply source including at least one solar power generation facility. When predetermined conditions are met, the prediction unit 130 corrects or re-predicts the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount using an image. This image is an image obtained by photographing the sky around the solar power generation facility.

[0016] This prediction device 10 reduces processing load because it performs highly accurate predictions based on empty images only when necessary. A detailed example of the prediction device 10 is described below.

[0017] Figure 2 is a diagram illustrating the supply of electricity to the target recipient 50. In recent years, the use of renewable energy has been promoted. Examples of renewable energy include solar energy, wind energy, and geothermal energy. Among these, the installation of solar power generation facilities 52 to utilize solar energy is progressing. On the other hand, the amount of electricity supplied by solar power generation facilities 52 depends on weather conditions, etc. If the amount of electricity supplied by solar power generation facilities 52 alone is insufficient to meet the electricity demand of electricity users (for example, businesses that use electricity), they will receive the remaining electricity from the power company. However, if they receive more electricity than they have contracted with the power company, their electricity bill will increase. Therefore, in order to minimize the amount of electricity supplied by the power company, electricity users need to predict the amount of electricity supplied by solar power generation facilities 52 and balance supply and demand. Note that a power company is a business that performs at least one of the following: electricity supply (generation) and power transmission.

[0018] Furthermore, electricity users may have targets set for the amount of renewable energy they can use based on various policies and systems. These targets may be constant or may fluctuate over time. It is preferable for electricity users to use the supplied renewable energy-derived electricity as efficiently as possible. Therefore, it is preferable to predict the amount of electricity supplied from renewable energy sources, including solar power, and to match demand to that supply.

[0019] For these reasons, while it is necessary to predict the amount of electricity supplied by solar power generation facilities 52, highly accurate predictions are not always required. For example, it is important to make more accurate predictions in situations that require particular attention, such as when there is a large discrepancy between the predicted amount of electricity supplied and the actual amount supplied, or when the balance between electricity supply and electricity demand is likely to be disrupted. By doing so, necessary measures such as demand control can be implemented.

[0020] Electricity users may obtain renewable energy from their own power generation facilities, such as solar power generation facilities 52, or they may obtain it by purchasing it from others (for example, other businesses). Furthermore, their own power generation facilities may be located within or around the facilities of the supply target 50, or they may be located at a distance from the supply target 50. If the power generation facilities are within or around the facilities of the supply target 50, the power generation facilities can supply electricity directly to the supply target 50. If the power generation facilities are located at a distance from the supply target 50, electricity can be supplied from the power generation facilities to the supply target 50 via the grid power grid 60. The grid power grid 60 is, for example, a transmission and distribution network managed by a power company. The supply target 50 can also receive electricity from a power company via the grid power grid 60.

[0021] The recipient of the supply 50 is not particularly limited, but for example, it could be one or more facilities, one or more pieces of equipment, one or more buildings, one or more residences, one or more rooms, or one or more floors. The recipient of the supply 50 could also be, for example, a factory or production equipment. Power is supplied to the recipient of the supply 50 from the power supply source 54. Power is also supplied to the recipient of the supply 50 from sources other than the power supply source 54, such as power plants 62, via the power grid 60. Furthermore, if the amount of power supplied from the power supply source 54 exceeds the amount of power demanded by the recipient of the supply 50, power is also supplied from the power supply source 54 to the power grid 60. The power supply source 54 includes at least one solar power generation facility 52. ​​The power supply source 54 may include one or more power supply facilities other than the solar power generation facility 52. ​​Power supply facilities other than the solar power generation facility 52 may be renewable energy power generation facilities or other power generation facilities. The power supply source 54 may include power supply facilities related to so-called self-consignment or off-site PPAs (Power Purchase Agreements). The amount of power supplied by the power source 54 is called the first power supply amount. The first power supply amount may also represent the amount of power supplied from the power source 54 to the target 50. The target 50 and the power source 54 may also be connected to charging and discharging equipment such as storage batteries. In addition, the power source 54 may also supply power to other targets. In that case, for example, a percentage of the first power supply amount that can be used by the target 50 may be defined, and that percentage may be used to determine the predetermined conditions described later. Power supply from the power source 54 may be provided only to the target 50.

[0022] Figure 3 is a block diagram illustrating the configuration of the prediction device 10 according to this embodiment. In the example in Figure 3, the prediction device 10 further comprises a pre-prediction unit 120, an output unit 150, an actual value acquisition unit 160, a change information acquisition unit 170, an image acquisition unit 180, and a storage unit 140. The pre-prediction unit 120 generates the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount in advance and stores it in the storage unit 140. In the example in Figure 3, the storage unit 140 is provided in the prediction device 10, but the storage unit 140 may be provided outside the prediction device 10. Note that the prediction device 10 does not need to include at least one of the actual value acquisition unit 160 and the change information acquisition unit 170, depending on the content of the predetermined conditions to be determined.

[0023] The advance forecasting unit 120 predicts the first power supply amount for a predetermined period based on that time each day at a predetermined time, and generates a trend of the predicted value. For example, the advance forecasting unit 120 predicts the first power supply amount for the following day and the day after, and generates a trend of the predicted value.

[0024] The pre-prediction unit 120 includes, for example, a first trained model 122. The first trained model 122 is a machine learning trained model and outputs the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply when input data is input. The input data for the first trained model 122 includes, for example, at least one of weather forecast information, information about the environment surrounding the solar power generation facility 52, and information about the solar power generation facility 52. ​​The weather forecast information includes, for example, at least one of sunrise time, sunset time, temperature trend, solar radiation trend, and cloud cover trend. The weather forecast information includes at least information about the area where the solar power generation facility 52 is installed. The information about the environment of the solar power generation facility 52 is, for example, 3D data of surrounding objects (buildings, trees, etc.) of the solar power generation panels installed in the solar power generation facility 52. ​​The information about the solar power generation facility 52 includes, for example, at least one of the power generation efficiency of the solar power generation facility 52, the configuration of the solar power generation facility 52, the manufacturer and model number of the solar power generation panels installed in the solar power generation facility 52, and information indicating whether the solar power generation facility 52 is mobile or not. Information regarding the environment surrounding the solar power generation equipment 52, and information regarding the solar power generation equipment 52, are stored in the storage unit 140 in advance, and the pre-prediction unit 120 can read and use them. The pre-prediction unit 120 can also obtain weather forecast information from, for example, a weather information provider's server via a communication network. Note that the pre-prediction unit 120 does not include the first trained model 122, and may predict the first power supply amount using previously obtained statistics or rule-based determinations.

[0025] If the power supply source 54 includes multiple solar power generation facilities 52, the predicted value of the first power supply is calculated using the predicted power supply values ​​of each solar power generation facility 52. ​​Furthermore, if the power supply source 54 includes power supply facilities other than solar power generation facilities 52, the predicted value of the first power supply is calculated as the sum of the predicted power supply values ​​of each power supply facility. The predicted power supply values ​​of power supply facilities other than solar power generation facilities 52 can be calculated using existing methods as appropriate. Additionally, for power supply facilities using non-renewable energy sources, the predicted power supply values ​​may be predetermined values.

[0026] The acquisition unit 110 acquires the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply. Specifically, the acquisition unit 110 may acquire the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply from the current time to a predetermined time (for example, 12 hours later or 24 hours later), or it may acquire all available trends of the predicted value of the first power supply. In the example in Figure 3, the acquisition unit 110 can read and acquire the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply from the storage unit 140. Alternatively, the acquisition unit 110 may directly acquire the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply from the pre-prediction unit 120.

[0027] The advance forecasting unit 120 also forecasts the amount of electricity demand at the supply target 50 and generates a trend of the forecast value. At the timing of forecasting the first amount of electricity supply, the advance forecasting unit 120 can forecast the amount of electricity demand at the supply target 50 for the same period as the forecasting period for the first amount of electricity supply. The advance forecasting unit 120 stores the trend of the generated forecast value of electricity demand in the storage unit 140. The advance forecasting unit 120 further includes, for example, a second trained model 124. The second trained model 124 is a trained model obtained by machine learning and outputs a trend of the forecast value of electricity demand when input data is input. The input data for the second trained model 124 can include, for example, temperature trends, information indicating whether the day to be forecasted is a holiday or not, and information indicating the operating status of the supply target 50. Information indicating the operating status of the supply target 50 may include, for example, product production volume, the number of employees on duty, business hours, etc.

[0028] The acquisition unit 110 acquires the trend of predicted power demand values ​​for the supply target 50. Specifically, the acquisition unit 110 may acquire the trend of predicted first power demand values ​​from the current time to a predetermined time (for example, 12 hours or 24 hours later), or it may acquire all available trends of predicted power demand values. In the example in Figure 3, the acquisition unit 110 can read and acquire the trend of predicted power demand values ​​from the storage unit 140. Alternatively, the acquisition unit 110 may directly acquire the trend of predicted power demand values ​​from the pre-prediction unit 120.

[0029] Note that the prediction device 10 does not necessarily have to include a pre-prediction unit 120. In that case, the trends of the predicted values ​​for the first power supply and the predicted values ​​for the power demand may be generated by a device other than the prediction device 10. The trends of each generated predicted value are stored in a storage unit accessible from the acquisition unit 110, and the acquisition unit 110 can read and acquire these trends. Alternatively, the acquisition unit 110 may directly acquire these trends from the device that generated each predicted value. The device that generates the trends of the predicted values ​​for the first power supply and the device that generates the trends of the predicted values ​​for the power demand may be the same device or they may be separate devices.

[0030] Figure 4 shows an example of a graph generated by the output unit 150. Figure 5 shows an example of an image displayed by the notification information from the output unit 150. Figure 4 corresponds to an enlarged view of the graph displayed on the left side of Figure 5. The output unit 150 outputs at least one of notification information and control information based on the comparison result between the predicted value of the first power supply amount acquired by the acquisition unit 110 and the predicted value of the power demand amount at the supply target 50. The control information is information for controlling at least one of the power supply amount and power demand amount to the supply target 50. As described later, if the predicted value of the first power supply amount is corrected or re-predicted, the output unit 150 outputs at least one of notification information and control information based on the comparison result between the corrected or re-predicted predicted value of the first power supply amount and the predicted value of the power demand amount at the supply target 50.

[0031] The output unit 150 can generate notification information as shown in Figure 5 using the trends in the predicted values ​​of the first power supply and the predicted values ​​of the power demand acquired by the acquisition unit 110. The notification information is, for example, image data for displaying an image on a display. The notification information is not limited to the example in Figure 5; it may also be audio information or a signal for flashing a light-emitting device.

[0032] The graph in Figure 4 shows the trends in power supply and power consumption for the target supply 50. In this graph, "solar power generation" represents the first power supply amount. In the example in Figure 4, the power supply source 54 includes only one or more solar power generation facilities 52. "Maximum power" shows the trend in power available to the target supply 50, assuming that power is used up to the upper limit of the power available within the basic range of the contract with the power company. In other words, if the amount of power demand exceeds this line, additional charges will be incurred, and electricity will become expensive. The upper limit of power available within the basic range of the contract with the power company is a predetermined value. "Maximum power" can be obtained, for example, by adding the upper limit of power available within the basic range of the contract with the power company and the amount of power obtained from other suppliers, etc., to the first power supply amount. In addition, "renewable energy" shows the amount of power supplied to the target supply 50 from renewable energy sources. Power supplied from sources other than power supply source 54 may also include power derived from renewable energy. The sum of the amount of electricity supplied from such renewable energy sources and the amount of electricity supplied from the solar power generation facility 52 constitutes "renewable energy." If the first amount of electricity supplied includes electricity supplied from sources other than renewable energy, the amount of electricity supplied from renewable energy can be calculated by subtracting the amount supplied from sources other than renewable energy from the first amount of electricity supplied. Alternatively, the amount of electricity supplied from renewable energy can be calculated by adding the amount of electricity supplied from power generation facilities that generate electricity from renewable energy sources, such as the solar power generation facility 52, to the amount of electricity supplied to the target 50.

[0033] Furthermore, electricity supplied from sources other than the power supply source 54 may include not only electricity generated by power companies, but also electricity related to so-called self-transmission and off-site PPAs. As mentioned above, power supply facilities related to self-transmission and off-site PPAs may be included in the power supply source 54. In other words, if the target of supply 50 can receive power from multiple power supply facilities related to self-transmission and off-site PPAs, some of these multiple power supply facilities may be included in the power supply source 54, while the remaining portion may not be included in the power supply source 54.

[0034] "Power Consumption" indicates the amount of electricity demand in the 50 supply area. In Figure 4, the dashed line indicates the current time. For each line in the graph, the left side of the dashed line shows the actual value in the 50 supply area, and the right side shows the predicted value.

[0035] On the left side of Figure 5, in addition to the graph, the current electricity usage and the amount of electricity supplied from sources other than power source 54 ("purchased electricity") are displayed. On the right side of Figure 5, the difference between the renewable energy usage target and the amount of electricity demand is shown. This visualization allows users to understand the current situation and forecasts regarding the balance between electricity supply and demand.

[0036] Furthermore, on the right side of Figure 5, the period for which power saving is deemed necessary as a result of comparing the predicted value of the first power supply with the predicted value of the power demand is shown as "Power saving period". For example, the output unit 150 identifies the period for which power saving is necessary when the predicted value of the power demand exceeds the upper limit power mentioned above. In the graph on the left side of Figure 5, a star mark is placed at the position corresponding to that period. On the right side of Figure 5, suggestions for control measures to reduce power demand are presented. For example, measures such as reducing the amount of lighting in some areas, stopping the power supply for charging batteries for a predetermined period are suggested, lowering the set temperature of heating in some areas, and stopping the operation of some of the multiple pieces of equipment are suggested. The amount of power saved by these controls (setting changes) is also displayed. The user selects (clicks or touches) the "OK" button displayed on this screen as an approval operation. Then, control information is output from the output unit 150, and the control displayed on the screen is executed. If there is no period for which power saving is deemed necessary, the output unit 150 may output notification information such as "There are no balance issues." The output unit 150 may also automatically output control information without accepting an approval operation.

[0037] The control information is not particularly limited, but it could be information that controls at least one of the following: lighting, air conditioning, refrigeration equipment, freezing equipment, boilers, hot water supply equipment, sanitary facilities, compressors, wastewater treatment equipment, and water and sewage facilities. The control information could also be information that controls power receiving and transforming equipment, such as shutting off unnecessary transformers, or information that controls equipment for recovering and utilizing waste heat.

[0038] The output unit 150 can determine the content of the broadcast information and control information to be output based on the result of comparing the predicted value of the first power supply amount with the predicted value of the power demand amount. For example, the output unit 150 calculates the required reduction in power consumption by subtracting the predicted value of the power demand amount from the predicted value of the first power supply amount. Meanwhile, the storage unit 140 has reference information in which the reduction amount is associated with at least one of the broadcast information and control information. The storage unit 140 identifies at least one of the broadcast information and control information corresponding to the calculated reduction amount in the reference information as information to be output.

[0039] For example, at the time the acquisition unit 110 acquires the trends in the predicted values ​​of the first power supply and the predicted values ​​of the power demand, the output unit 150 uses the acquired trends in predicted values ​​to identify a period during which power saving is necessary and further identifies at least one of the notification information and control information to be output. Alternatively, the output unit 150 may identify a period during which power saving is necessary and identify at least one of the notification information and control information to be output at a predetermined cycle or timing. Furthermore, the output unit 150 may determine a period during which power saving is necessary at the time the trends in the predicted values ​​of the first power supply are corrected or re-predicted and identify at least one of the notification information and control information to be output. Once the output unit 150 has identified at least one of the notification information and control information to be output, it outputs the identified information.

[0040] <Specific conditions> In the prediction device 10 according to this embodiment, the prediction unit 130 corrects or re-predicts the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount using an image obtained by photographing the sky when predetermined conditions are met. That is, the prediction unit 130 corrects or re-predicts the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount triggered by the meeting of predetermined conditions. If the predetermined conditions are not met, the prediction unit 130 does not correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount. Therefore, the processing load is reduced compared to when prediction using images is performed continuously. Examples of predetermined conditions are described below. The predetermined conditions include a plurality of conditions, and for example, when at least one of these plurality of conditions is met, it is determined that the predetermined conditions have been met. For example, the prediction unit 130 corrects or re-predicts the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount using an image when at least one of the plurality of conditions described below is met. However, the predetermined conditions are not limited to the following examples and may be other conditions. The prediction unit 130 corrects or re-predicts the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount when the state changes from one in which at least the predetermined conditions are not met to one in which they are met. The prediction unit 130 may correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply only when the state changes from one where a predetermined condition is not met to one where it is met, or it may further correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply while the predetermined condition is met.

[0041] <<Conditions regarding predicted values>> The specified conditions may include conditions relating to the predicted value of the first power supply. For example, the specified conditions include at least one of conditions (1) and (2) described below.

[0042] Condition (1) is that the ratio of the predicted electricity demand at the supply target to the predicted value of the first electricity supply meets a predetermined first criterion. The prediction unit 130 uses the trend of the predicted value of the first electricity supply and the trend of the predicted electricity demand acquired by the acquisition unit 110 to calculate the value of "predicted electricity demand at the supply target / predicted value of the first electricity supply" at each time. The prediction unit 130 then identifies the timing when the calculated value exceeds a predetermined criterion value S1, that is, the time when the value changes from a value below the criterion value S1 to a value exceeding the criterion value S1. The criterion value S1 is, for example, 0.8 or more and 1.2 or less. Condition (1) is met at the identified time. At the identified time, the prediction unit 130 acquires an empty image and corrects or re-predicts the trend of the predicted value of the first electricity supply. A more accurate prediction of the first electricity supply can be obtained prior to the timing when it is necessary to reduce electricity demand. Consequently, appropriate measures can be taken.

[0043] Condition (2) is that the difference between the actual value and the predicted value of the first power supply amount satisfies a predetermined second criterion. The prediction unit 130 compares the predicted value of the first power supply amount for the current time, acquired by the acquisition unit 110, with the current actual value of the first power supply amount (actual value). The actual value acquisition unit 160 of the prediction device 10 can acquire the actual value of the first power supply amount from the power supply source 54 at a predetermined interval (for example, every minute). The comparison between the predicted value and the actual value of the first power supply amount is performed each time an actual value is obtained. The prediction unit 130 calculates the magnitude of the difference between the predicted value and the actual value of the first power supply amount. The prediction unit 130 determines whether the magnitude of the calculated difference is greater than or equal to a predetermined criterion value S2. If the magnitude of the calculated difference is greater than or equal to the predetermined criterion value S2, it is determined that condition (2) has been met. On the other hand, if the magnitude of the calculated difference is not greater than or equal to the predetermined criterion value S2, it is determined that condition (2) has not been met. When it is determined that condition (2) is met, the prediction unit 130 acquires an empty image and corrects or re-predicts the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply. By doing so, a more accurate predicted value of the first power supply can be obtained when the accuracy of the predicted value becomes insufficient.

[0044] In addition, the specified conditions may include, as a condition relating to the predicted value of the first power supply, the condition that the ratio of the predicted value of power demand in the supply target 50 to the predicted value of the upper limit power mentioned above meets the specified first criterion at the time.

[0045] <<Conditions related to the power grid>> The specified conditions may include conditions relating to at least one of the following: the supply of power from the grid 60 to the target 50, and the supply of power from the power source 54 to the grid 60. For example, the specified conditions include at least one of conditions (3) and (4).

[0046] Condition (3) is that information has been received indicating that the second power supply amount, which is the amount of electricity supplied from the grid 60 to the target 50, should be changed. Information indicating that the second power supply amount should be changed is transmitted, for example, by the power company and acquired by the change information acquisition unit 170 via the communication network. For example, when the amount of electricity demand in the grid 60 approaches or is expected to approach the supply limit, the power company transmits information requesting electricity users to reduce the amount of electricity supplied from the grid 60 to the target 50, i.e., information indicating that the second power supply amount should be changed. Information indicating that the second power supply amount should be changed is, for example, a so-called "reduced DR (Demand Response)". Upon receiving such information, it is necessary to reduce the amount of electricity demand at the target 50. Note that the second power supply amount can also mean the amount of electricity supplied from sources other than the power supply source 54, or it can mean the amount of electricity supplied from the power company's power generation facilities. When the change information acquisition unit 170 receives information indicating that the second power supply amount should be changed, the prediction unit 130 determines that condition (3) is met, acquires an empty image, and corrects or re-predicts the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount. By doing so, appropriate power saving can be carried out based on a more accurate predicted value of the first power supply amount.

[0047] Condition (4) is that information has been received indicating that the third power supply amount, which is the amount of power supplied from the power source 54 to the grid power 60, should be changed. Information indicating that the third power supply amount should be changed is transmitted, for example, by the power company and acquired by the change information acquisition unit 170 via the communication network. For example, if the amount of power supplied in the grid power 60 significantly exceeds the amount of demand, or is expected to significantly exceed the amount of demand, the power company sends information requesting power users to reduce the amount of power supplied from the power source 54 to the grid power 60, i.e., information indicating that the third power supply amount should be changed. Information indicating that the third power supply amount should be changed is, for example, a so-called "upward demand response." Upon receiving such information, it is necessary to increase the amount of power demand at the supply target 50. When the change information acquisition unit 170 receives information indicating that the third power supply amount should be changed, the prediction unit 130 determines that condition (4) has been met, acquires an empty image, and corrects or re-predicts the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount. By doing so, power usage can be appropriately adjusted based on a more accurate predicted value of the first power supply amount.

[0048] <<Conditions regarding renewable energy>> The specified conditions may include conditions relating to the supply of electricity from renewable energy sources to the target recipient 50. For example, the specified conditions include condition (5).

[0049] Condition (5) is that the difference between the amount of electricity supplied to the target supply 50 from renewable energy sources and the amount of electricity demanded by the target supply 50, or the cumulative value of this difference, satisfies the third criterion. Electricity users prefer that as much of their electricity consumption as possible come from renewable energy sources. The prediction unit 130 calculates the trend of the amount of electricity supplied to the target supply 50 that comes from renewable energy sources. The amount of electricity supplied from renewable energy sources is as explained in relation to Figure 4. It is preferable that the amount of electricity demanded by the target supply 50 aligns as closely as possible with this amount of electricity supplied from renewable energy sources. The amount of electricity supplied from renewable energy sources includes at least the amount of electricity supplied by the solar power generation equipment 52 of the power supply source 54. The amount of electricity supplied from renewable energy sources may further include the amount of electricity supplied from other renewable energy power generation equipment included in the power supply source 54. In addition, the amount of electricity supplied from renewable energy sources may further include the amount of renewable energy purchased from other businesses. Furthermore, the amount of electricity supplied from renewable energy sources may include electricity supplied from solar power generation facilities 52 located at a location separate from the supply target 50. The prediction unit 130 can acquire the trends of each of these electricity supply amounts, sum them up, and calculate the trend of electricity supplied from renewable energy sources to the supply target 50.

[0050] The prediction unit 130 calculates the magnitude of the difference between the calculated amount of electricity supplied by renewable energy and the amount of electricity demanded at the supply target 50 each time it acquires these actual values. The prediction unit 130 then determines whether the magnitude of the calculated difference is greater than or equal to a predetermined reference value S3. If the magnitude of the calculated difference is greater than or equal to the predetermined reference value S3, condition (5) is met. If the magnitude of the calculated difference is greater than or equal to the predetermined reference value S3, the prediction unit 130 acquires an empty image and corrects or re-predicts the trend of the predicted value of the first electricity supply. By doing so, the electricity usage can be appropriately adjusted based on a more accurate predicted value of the first electricity supply.

[0051] Alternatively, the prediction unit 130 calculates the difference between the amount of electricity supplied by renewable energy and the amount of electricity demanded by the supply target 50 by subtracting the other from the other. The prediction unit 130 then calculates the cumulative value of the difference for a predetermined period ending at the current time. It then determines whether the absolute value of the calculated cumulative value is equal to or greater than a predetermined reference value S4. If the absolute value of the calculated cumulative value is equal to or greater than the predetermined reference value S4, condition (5) is met. If the absolute value of the calculated cumulative value is equal to or greater than the predetermined reference value S4, the prediction unit 130 acquires an empty image and corrects or re-predicts the trend of the predicted value of the first electricity supply. By doing so, the electricity usage can be appropriately adjusted based on a more accurate predicted value of the first electricity supply.

[0052] <Prediction> Figure 6 is a diagram illustrating the configuration of the prediction system 30 according to this embodiment. The prediction system 30 comprises a prediction device 10 and a shooting unit 20 that photographs the sky around the solar power generation equipment 52. The shooting unit 20 is, for example, a camera. The shooting unit 20 may also be equipped with a fisheye lens. The shooting direction of the shooting unit 20 may also be variable. It is preferable that the shooting unit 20 is installed in the vicinity of the solar power generation equipment 52. For example, it is preferable that the distance between the shooting unit 20 and the solar power generation panels of the solar power generation equipment 52 is within 100m. The prediction device 10 is connected to the shooting unit 20 by wire or wireless. When the prediction device 10 determines that predetermined conditions are met, the shooting unit 20 photographs the sky around the solar power generation equipment 52. Specifically, when the prediction unit 130 determines that predetermined conditions are met, the image acquisition unit 180 outputs a control signal to the shooting unit 20 to photograph an image of the sky. When the shooting unit 20 receives the control signal from the image acquisition unit 180, it photographs an image of the sky around the solar power generation equipment 52 at that time. When the image capture unit 20 captures an image of the sky, the image acquisition unit 180 acquires that image from the image capture unit 20. The prediction unit 130 then uses the image acquired by the image acquisition unit 180 to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply.

[0053] The range of the image of the sky surrounding the solar power generation equipment 52 is not particularly limited, but for example, it is preferable that the image of the sky include the sky directly above the solar power generation equipment 52. It is also preferable that the image of the sky include the sky in the direction of the sun. Furthermore, if the orientation of the imaging unit 20 is variable, the image acquisition unit 180 may acquire wind information for the area where the solar power generation equipment 52 is located from a weather information provider's server or the like via a communication network, and control the orientation of the imaging unit 20 to capture an image of the sky in the windward direction as viewed from the solar power generation equipment 52.

[0054] The prediction unit 130 corrects or re-predicts the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount using an image of the sky surrounding the solar power generation facility 52. ​​The prediction unit 130 may also correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount using information on the date and time or the position of the sun. When using the date and time, the prediction unit 130 can determine the position (orientation) of the sun as seen from the solar power generation facility 52 using the date and time and known location information of the solar power generation facility 52. ​​The prediction unit 130 may also obtain information indicating the position of the sun from a weather information provider's server or the like via a communication network. The power generation efficiency of the solar power generation facility 52 may change depending on the direction of the sun, and the influence of buildings and other structures around the solar power generation facility 52 also changes, so using information on the date and time or the position of the sun can improve prediction accuracy.

[0055] The prediction unit 130 may further use wind information and temperature to modify or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply. Wind information includes, for example, information indicating the direction and strength of the wind. Wind information may be measured values ​​or predicted values. The movement of clouds that block sunlight differs depending on the direction and strength of the wind. Also, the power generation efficiency of the solar power generation equipment 52 changes depending on the temperature. Therefore, the prediction accuracy can be improved by using wind information and temperature.

[0056] Furthermore, if the sky image includes an image of the sky upwind from the solar power generation equipment 52, it is preferable for the prediction unit 130 to use the wind information to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply. This makes it possible to make predictions that take into account changes in cloud conditions due to wind.

[0057] The prediction unit 130 includes, for example, a third trained model 132. The third trained model 132 is a machine learning trained model and outputs the trend of predicted values ​​of the first power supply when input data is received. The prediction unit 130 replaces the trend of predicted values ​​of the first power supply for the corresponding period, acquired by the acquisition unit 110, with the trend of predicted values ​​of the first power supply output from the third trained model 132. The input data for the third trained model 132 includes at least an image obtained by photographing the sky around the solar power generation equipment 52. The input data for the third trained model 132 may further include at least one of the following: date and time, sun position information, wind information, and temperature. The input data for the third trained model 132 may further include at least a portion of the trend of predicted values ​​of the first power supply acquired by the acquisition unit 110, or it may not. The third trained model 132 outputs the trend of predicted values ​​of the first power supply within a predetermined period based on the current time. The starting point of a predetermined period could be, for example, the current time, or it could be time T from the current time. s It's okay to do it later. s For example, this is between 5 minutes and 45 minutes. The end of the specified period is, for example, time T from the current time. e Later. e For example, this period is between 30 minutes and 3 hours. In addition, the predetermined period may be any period during which it is determined that demand reduction is necessary, such as the period during which the difference between the amount of electricity supplied predicted by the first trained model and the amount of electricity demand predicted by the second trained model exceeds a threshold.

[0058] The output unit 150 uses the updated predicted value of the first power supply to generate and output at least one of the notification information and control information. Therefore, more appropriate notification and control can be performed regarding power usage.

[0059] The hardware configuration of the prediction device 10 is described below. Each functional component of the prediction device 10 may be implemented by hardware that realizes each functional component (e.g., hardwired electronic circuits), or by a combination of hardware and software (e.g., a combination of an electronic circuit and a program that controls it). The case in which each functional component of the prediction device 10 is implemented by a combination of hardware and software will be described further below.

[0060] Figure 7 illustrates a computer 1000 for implementing the prediction device 10. Computer 1000 is any computer. For example, computer 1000 may be an SoC (System on Chip), a Personal Computer (PC), a server machine, a tablet terminal, or a smartphone. Computer 1000 may be a dedicated computer designed to implement the prediction device 10, or it may be a general-purpose computer.

[0061] Computer 1000 includes a bus 1020, a processor 1040, memory 1060, a storage device 1080, an input / output interface 1100, and a network interface 1120. Bus 1020 is a data transmission path for the processor 1040, memory 1060, storage device 1080, input / output interface 1100, and network interface 1120 to send and receive data to and from each other. However, the method of connecting the processor 1040 and the other components is not limited to bus connection. The processor 1040 is a variety of processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit), GPU (Graphics Processing Unit), or FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array). Memory 1060 is a main memory device implemented using RAM (Random Access Memory), etc. Storage device 1080 is an auxiliary storage device implemented using a hard disk, SSD (Solid State Drive), memory card, or ROM (Read Only Memory), etc.

[0062] The input / output interface 1100 is an interface for connecting the computer 1000 with input / output devices. For example, input devices such as keyboards and output devices such as displays are connected to the input / output interface 1100.

[0063] The network interface 1120 is an interface for connecting the computer 1000 to a network. This network is, for example, a LAN (Local Area Network) or a WAN (Wide Area Network). The method by which the network interface 1120 connects to the network may be wireless or wired.

[0064] The storage device 1080 stores program modules that realize each functional component of the prediction device 10. The processor 1040 reads these program modules into the memory 1060 and executes them to realize the functions corresponding to each program module. Furthermore, if the storage unit 140 is provided inside the prediction device 10, for example, the storage unit 140 is realized using the storage device 1080.

[0065] Figure 8 is a flowchart illustrating the overview of the prediction method performed by the prediction device 10 according to this embodiment. In the prediction method according to this embodiment, one or more computers perform the acquisition step S10 and the prediction step S20. In the acquisition step S10, the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount is acquired. The first power supply amount is the amount of power supplied to the supply target 50 by a power supply source 54 that includes at least one solar power generation facility 52. ​​In the prediction step S20, when predetermined conditions are met, the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount is corrected or re-predicted. This correction or re-prediction is performed using an image obtained by photographing the sky around the solar power generation facility 52.

[0066] Figure 9 is a flowchart illustrating the flow of the prediction method according to this embodiment. When the prediction device 10 starts processing, the acquisition unit 110 acquires the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply and the trend of the predicted value of the power demand (S110). If the prediction device 10 includes a pre-prediction unit 120, in S110 the pre-prediction unit 120 generates the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply and the trend of the predicted value of the power demand, and the acquisition unit 110 acquires them.

[0067] Next, in S120, the prediction unit 130 obtains the latest actual values ​​of the first power supply and power demand. Then, in S130, the prediction unit 130 determines whether predetermined conditions are met. If the predetermined conditions are met (Yes in S130), the prediction unit 130 updates the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply (S140). Next, in S150, the output unit 150 identifies the information to be output and outputs it. If the predetermined conditions are not met (No in S130), S140 is not performed and S150 is performed. Following S150, it is determined whether the termination conditions are met (S160), and if the termination conditions are met (Yes in S160), the processing of the prediction device 10 is terminated. The termination conditions are met, for example, when an operation to terminate the processing of the prediction device 10 is performed on the prediction device 10.

[0068] If the termination condition is not met (No in S160), the acquisition unit 110 determines whether it is time to acquire the new predicted values ​​of the first power supply and the predicted values ​​of the power demand (S170). For example, when a predetermined time has elapsed since the acquisition unit 110 last acquired these values, or when a predetermined time has arrived, the acquisition unit 110 determines that it is time to acquire the new predicted values ​​of the first power supply and the predicted values ​​of the power demand. If the acquisition unit 110 determines that it is time to acquire the new predicted values ​​of the first power supply and the predicted values ​​of the power demand (Yes in S170), the process returns to S110. If the acquisition unit 110 does not determine that it is time to acquire the new predicted values ​​of the first power supply and the predicted values ​​of the power demand (No in S170), the process returns to S120.

[0069] As described above, according to this embodiment, when predetermined conditions are met, the prediction unit 130 uses an empty image to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply. Therefore, since highly accurate predictions based on empty images are performed only when necessary, the processing load can be reduced.

[0070] The embodiments of the present invention have been described above with reference to the drawings, but these are merely examples of the present invention, and various other configurations can also be adopted.

[0071] Furthermore, while the flowcharts used in the above description show multiple steps (processes) in sequence, the execution order of the steps performed in each embodiment is not limited to the order in which they are described. In each embodiment, the order of the illustrated steps can be changed to the extent that it does not impede the content. Also, the above embodiments can be combined to the extent that their contents do not conflict.

[0072] Some or all of the above embodiments may also be described as follows, but are not limited to the following: 1-1. An acquisition means for acquiring the trend of predicted values ​​of the first power supply amount to the target of supply from a power supply source including at least one solar power generation facility, The system includes a prediction means that, when certain conditions are met, corrects or re-predicts the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply using an image obtained by photographing the sky surrounding the solar power generation facility. Prediction device. 1-2. In the prediction device described in 1-1, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include at least one of conditions (1) and (2), Condition (1) is that the ratio of the predicted value of electricity demand in the supply target to the predicted value of the first electricity supply satisfies a predetermined first criterion. Condition (2) is that the difference between the actual value and the predicted value of the first power supply amount satisfies a predetermined second criterion. Prediction device. 1-3. In the prediction device described in 1-1 or 1-2, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include conditions relating to at least one of the following: the supply of power from the power grid to the target of supply, and the supply of power from the power source to the power grid. Prediction device. 1-4. In the prediction device described in 1-3, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include at least one of conditions (3) and (4), Condition (3) is that information has been received indicating that the second power supply amount, which is the amount of power supplied from the power grid to the target of supply, should be changed. Condition (4) is that information has been received indicating that the third power supply amount, which is the amount of power supplied from the power source to the power grid, should be changed. Prediction device. 1-5. In the prediction device described in any one of 1-1 to 1-4, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include conditions relating to the supply of electricity from renewable energy sources to the aforementioned target. Prediction device. 1-6. In the prediction device described in 1-5, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include condition (5), Condition (5) is that the difference between the amount of electricity supplied by renewable energy to the target of supply and the amount of electricity demanded by the target of supply, or the cumulative value of said difference, satisfies the third criterion. Prediction device. 1-7. In the prediction device described in any one of 1-1 to 1-6, The prediction means further uses information on the date and time or the position of the sun to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply. Prediction device. 1-8. In the prediction device described in any one of 1-1 to 1-7, The prediction means further uses wind information and temperature to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply. Prediction device. 1-9. In the prediction device described in any one of 1-1 to 1-8, The prediction means uses wind information to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount. The aforementioned image includes an image of the sky upwind from the solar power generation facility. Prediction device. 1-10. In the prediction device described in any one of 1-1 to 1-9, The system further includes output means that outputs at least one of notification information and control information based on the result of comparing the revised or re-predicted predicted value of the first power supply amount with the predicted value of the power demand amount at the supply target, The control information is information for controlling at least one of the amount of power supplied to the target and the amount of power demanded. Prediction device. 2-1. A prediction device described in any one of 1-1. to 1-10. The prediction device includes a means for taking photographs of the sky surrounding the solar power generation equipment when it is determined that the predetermined conditions are met. Prediction system.

[0073] 3-1. One or more computers, Obtain the predicted trend of the amount of electricity supplied to the target recipient from a power source that includes at least one solar power generation facility. When predetermined conditions are met, the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply is corrected or re-predicted using an image obtained by photographing the sky surrounding the solar power generation facility. Prediction method. 3-2. In the prediction method described in 3-1, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include at least one of conditions (1) and (2), Condition (1) is that the ratio of the predicted value of electricity demand in the supply target to the predicted value of the first electricity supply satisfies a predetermined first criterion. Condition (2) is that the difference between the actual value and the predicted value of the first power supply amount satisfies a predetermined second criterion. Prediction method. 3-3. In the prediction method described in 3-1 or 3-2, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include conditions relating to at least one of the following: the supply of power from the power grid to the target of supply, and the supply of power from the power source to the power grid. Prediction method. 3-4. In the prediction method described in 3-3, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include at least one of conditions (3) and (4), Condition (3) is that information has been received indicating that the second power supply amount, which is the amount of power supplied from the power grid to the target of supply, should be changed. Condition (4) is that information has been received indicating that the third power supply amount, which is the amount of power supplied from the power source to the power grid, should be changed. Prediction method. 3-5. In any of the prediction methods described in 3-1 to 3-4, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include conditions relating to the supply of electricity from renewable energy sources to the aforementioned target. Prediction method. 3-6. In the prediction method described in 3-5, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include condition (5), Condition (5) is that the difference between the amount of electricity supplied by renewable energy to the target of supply and the amount of electricity demanded by the target of supply, or the cumulative value of said difference, satisfies the third criterion. Prediction method. 3-7. In any of the prediction methods described in 3-1 to 3-6, The one or more computers further use information on the date and time or the position of the sun to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply. Prediction method. 3-8. In any of the prediction methods described in 3-1 to 3-7, The one or more computers further use wind information and temperature to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply. Prediction method. 3-9. In any of the prediction methods described in 3-1 to 3-8, The one or more computers use wind information to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount. The aforementioned image includes an image of the sky upwind from the solar power generation facility. Prediction method. 3-10. In any of the prediction methods described in 3-1 to 3-9, The one or more computers further output at least one of notification information and control information based on the comparison result between the corrected or re-predicted predicted value of the first power supply amount and the predicted value of the power demand amount at the supply target. The control information is information for controlling at least one of the amount of power supplied to the target and the amount of power demanded. Prediction method.

[0074] 4-1. A recording medium for storing a program that causes a computer to execute a prediction method, The prediction method involves the computer, Obtain the predicted trend of the amount of electricity supplied to the target recipient from a power source that includes at least one solar power generation facility. This is a prediction method that, when certain conditions are met, uses images obtained by photographing the sky surrounding the solar power generation facility to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply. Recording medium. 4-2. In the recording medium described in 4-1, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include at least one of conditions (1) and (2), Condition (1) is that the ratio of the predicted value of electricity demand in the supply target to the predicted value of the first electricity supply satisfies a predetermined first criterion. Condition (2) is that the difference between the actual value and the predicted value of the first power supply amount satisfies a predetermined second criterion. Recording medium. 4-3. In the recording medium described in 4-1. or 4-2., The aforementioned predetermined conditions include conditions relating to at least one of the following: the supply of power from the power grid to the target of supply, and the supply of power from the power source to the power grid. Recording medium. 4-4. In the recording medium described in 4-3, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include at least one of conditions (3) and (4), Condition (3) is that information has been received indicating that the second power supply amount, which is the amount of power supplied from the power grid to the target of supply, should be changed. Condition (4) is that information has been received indicating that the third power supply amount, which is the amount of power supplied from the power source to the power grid, should be changed. Recording medium. 4-5. In any one of the recording media described in 4-1 to 4-4, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include conditions relating to the supply of electricity from renewable energy sources to the aforementioned target. Recording medium. 4-6. In the recording medium described in 4-5, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include condition (5), Condition (5) is that the difference between the amount of electricity supplied by renewable energy to the target of supply and the amount of electricity demanded by the target of supply, or the cumulative value of said difference, satisfies the third criterion. Recording medium. 4-7. In any one of the recording media described in 4-1 to 4-6, In the prediction method described above, the computer further uses information on the date and time or the position of the sun to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply. Recording medium. 4-8. In any one of the recording media described in 4-1 to 4-7, In the prediction method described above, the computer further uses wind information and temperature to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply. Recording medium. 4-9. In any one of the recording media described in 4-1 to 4-8, In the above prediction method, the computer uses wind information to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount. The aforementioned image includes an image of the sky upwind from the solar power generation facility. Recording medium. 4-10. In any one of the recording media described in 4-1 to 4-9, In the prediction method described above, the computer further outputs at least one of notification information and control information based on the comparison result between the corrected or re-predicted predicted value of the first power supply amount and the predicted value of the power demand amount at the supply target. The control information is information for controlling at least one of the amount of power supplied to the target and the amount of power demanded. Recording medium.

[0075] 5-1. A program that causes a computer to execute a prediction method, The prediction method involves the computer, Obtain the predicted trend of the amount of electricity supplied to the target recipient from a power source that includes at least one solar power generation facility. This is a prediction method that, when certain conditions are met, uses images obtained by photographing the sky surrounding the solar power generation facility to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply. program. 5-2. In the program described in 5-1, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include at least one of conditions (1) and (2), Condition (1) is that the ratio of the predicted value of electricity demand in the supply target to the predicted value of the first electricity supply satisfies a predetermined first criterion. Condition (2) is that the difference between the actual value and the predicted value of the first power supply amount satisfies a predetermined second criterion. program. 5-3. In the program described in 5-1 or 5-2, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include conditions relating to at least one of the following: the supply of power from the power grid to the target of supply, and the supply of power from the power source to the power grid. program. In the program described in 5-4. 5-3., The aforementioned predetermined conditions include at least one of conditions (3) and (4), Condition (3) is that information has been received indicating that the second power supply amount, which is the amount of power supplied from the power grid to the target of supply, should be changed. Condition (4) is that information has been received indicating that the third power supply amount, which is the amount of power supplied from the power source to the power grid, should be changed. program. 5-5. In any of the programs described in 5-1 to 5-4, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include conditions relating to the supply of electricity from renewable energy sources to the aforementioned target. program. 5-6. In the program described in 5-5, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include condition (5), Condition (5) is that the difference between the amount of electricity supplied by renewable energy to the target of supply and the amount of electricity demanded by the target of supply, or the cumulative value of said difference, satisfies the third criterion. program. 5-7. In any of the programs described in 5-1 to 5-6, In the prediction method described above, the computer further uses information on the date and time or the position of the sun to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply. program. 5-8. In any of the programs described in 5-1 through 5-7, In the prediction method described above, the computer further uses wind information and temperature to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply. program. 5-9. In any of the programs described in 5-1 through 5-8, In the above prediction method, the computer uses wind information to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount. The aforementioned image includes an image of the sky upwind from the solar power generation facility. program. 5-10. In any of the programs described in 5-1 through 5-9, In the prediction method described above, the computer further outputs at least one of notification information and control information based on the comparison result between the corrected or re-predicted predicted value of the first power supply amount and the predicted value of the power demand amount at the supply target. The control information is information for controlling at least one of the amount of power supplied to the target and the amount of power demanded. program. [Explanation of Symbols]

[0076] 10 Prediction device 20 Photography Department 30 Prediction Systems 50 Target customers 52 Solar power generation equipment 54 Power supply source 60 grid power grid 62 Power Plants 110 Acquisition Department 120 Pre-prediction section 122 First pre-trained model 124 Second pre-trained model 130 Prediction Section 132 Third pre-trained model 140 Storage section 150 Output section 160 Actual Value Acquisition Unit 170 Change Information Acquisition Unit 180 Image acquisition unit 1000 calculator

Claims

1. A means for obtaining the trend of predicted values ​​of the first amount of electricity supplied to a target from a power supply source including at least one solar power generation facility, The system includes a prediction means that, when certain conditions are met, corrects or re-predicts the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply using an image obtained by photographing the sky surrounding the solar power generation facility, The predetermined conditions include at least one of the following: conditions relating to the predicted value of the first power supply, conditions relating to the power grid, and conditions relating to the supply of renewable energy to the target of the supply. Prediction device.

2. A means for obtaining the trend of predicted values ​​of the first amount of electricity supplied to a target from a power supply source including at least one solar power generation facility, When predetermined conditions are met, a prediction means for correcting or re-predicting the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount using an image obtained by photographing the sky surrounding the solar power generation equipment, The system includes output means that outputs at least one of notification information and control information based on the result of comparing the revised or re-predicted predicted value of the first power supply amount with the predicted value of the power demand amount at the supply target, The control information is information for controlling at least one of the amount of power supplied to the target and the amount of power demanded. The aforementioned predetermined conditions include at least one of the following: conditions relating to the predicted value of the first power supply, conditions relating to the power grid, and conditions relating to renewable energy. Prediction device.

3. In the prediction device according to claim 1, The system further includes output means that outputs at least one of notification information and control information based on the result of comparing the revised or re-predicted predicted value of the first power supply amount with the predicted value of the power demand amount at the supply target, The control information is information for controlling at least one of the amount of power supplied to the target and the amount of power demanded. Prediction device.

4. In the prediction device according to claim 1 or 3, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include conditions relating to the supply of electricity from renewable energy sources to the aforementioned target. Prediction device.

5. In the prediction device according to claim 4, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include condition (5), Condition (5) is that the difference between the amount of electricity supplied by renewable energy to the target of supply and the amount of electricity demanded by the target of supply, or the cumulative value of said difference, satisfies the third criterion. Prediction device.

6. In the prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 5, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include at least one of conditions (1) and (2), Condition (1) is that the ratio of the predicted value of electricity demand in the supply target to the predicted value of the first electricity supply satisfies a predetermined first criterion. Condition (2) is that the difference between the actual value and the predicted value of the first power supply amount satisfies a predetermined second criterion. Prediction device.

7. In the prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 6, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include conditions relating to at least one of the following: the supply of power from the power grid to the target of supply, and the supply of power from the power source to the power grid. Prediction device.

8. In the prediction device according to claim 7, The aforementioned predetermined conditions include at least one of conditions (3) and (4), Condition (3) is that information has been received indicating that the second power supply amount, which is the amount of power supplied from the power grid to the target of supply, should be changed. Condition (4) is that information has been received indicating that the third power supply amount, which is the amount of power supplied from the power source to the power grid, should be changed. Prediction device.

9. In the prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 8, The prediction means further uses information on the date and time or the position of the sun to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply. Prediction device.

10. In the prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 9, The prediction means further uses wind information and temperature to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply. Prediction device.

11. In the prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 10, The prediction means uses wind information to correct or re-predict the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply amount. The aforementioned image includes an image of the sky upwind from the solar power generation facility. Prediction device.

12. A prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 11, The prediction device includes a means for taking photographs of the sky surrounding the solar power generation equipment when it is determined that the predetermined conditions are met. Prediction system.

13. One or more computers Obtain the predicted trend of the first power supply amount to the target of a power supply source that includes at least one solar power generation facility. When the predetermined conditions are met, the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply is corrected or re-predicted using an image obtained by photographing the sky around the solar power generation facility. The predetermined conditions include at least one of the following: conditions relating to the predicted value of the first power supply, conditions relating to the power grid, and conditions relating to the supply of renewable energy to the target of the supply. Prediction method.

14. One or more computers Obtain the predicted trend of the first power supply amount to the target of a power supply source that includes at least one solar power generation facility. When the predetermined conditions are met, the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply is corrected or re-predicted using an image obtained by photographing the sky around the solar power generation facility. Based on the comparison result between the revised or re-predicted predicted value of the first power supply and the predicted value of the power demand in the supply target, at least one of the notification information and control information is output. The control information is information for controlling at least one of the amount of power supplied to the target and the amount of power demanded. The aforementioned predetermined conditions include at least one of the following: conditions relating to the predicted value of the first power supply, conditions relating to the power grid, and conditions relating to renewable energy. Prediction method.

15. A program that causes a computer to execute a prediction method, The prediction method involves the computer, Obtain the predicted trend of the first power supply amount to the target of a power supply source that includes at least one solar power generation facility. When the predetermined conditions are met, the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply is corrected or re-predicted using an image obtained by photographing the sky around the solar power generation facility. The predetermined conditions are a prediction method that includes at least one of the following: conditions relating to the predicted value of the first power supply, conditions relating to the power grid, and conditions relating to the supply of renewable energy to the target of supply. program.

16. A program that causes a computer to execute a prediction method, The prediction method involves the computer, Obtain the predicted trend of the first power supply amount to the target of a power supply source that includes at least one solar power generation facility. When the predetermined conditions are met, the trend of the predicted value of the first power supply is corrected or re-predicted using an image obtained by photographing the sky around the solar power generation facility. Based on the comparison result between the revised or re-predicted predicted value of the first power supply and the predicted value of the power demand in the supply target, at least one of the notification information and control information is output. The control information is information for controlling at least one of the amount of power supplied to the target and the amount of power demanded. The predetermined conditions are a prediction method that includes at least one of the following: conditions relating to the predicted value of the first power supply, conditions relating to the power grid, and conditions relating to renewable energy. program.

Images