A method and apparatus for quantitative assessment of flash flood disaster risk and loss considering cascading effects

By constructing a cascading risk amplification coefficient quantification model and a loss quantification assessment system, the problem of not considering cascading effects in traditional flash flood disaster risk assessment has been solved. This has enabled the accurate quantification of cascading effects and the scientific assessment of risk losses, identified key risk intervals, and provided a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation.

CN120833013BActive Publication Date: 2025-12-02JIANGXI ACAD OF WATER RESOURCES (JIANGXI PROVINCE DAM SAFETY MANAGEMENT CENT JIANGXI PROVINCE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT CENT)
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202511328351.X
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Patents(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2025-09-17
Publication Date
2025-12-02
Estimated Expiration
2045-09-17

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Traditional methods for assessing the risk of flash floods do not fully consider cascading effects, resulting in assessment results that fail to reflect the actual risk level of the disaster. They also lack quantitative models for cascading effects, making it difficult to translate the amplification effect of cascading risks into specific economic losses. Furthermore, they lack effective methods for identifying critical risk zones, leading to a lack of targeted disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.

Method used

A cascaded risk amplification coefficient quantification model and a loss quantification assessment system are constructed. By acquiring basic data of the study area, a hydrodynamic model is built, multiple scenario calculation conditions are set, the flood evolution process is simulated, the cascaded risk amplification coefficient is calculated, a risk amplification effect classification standard is established, key risk amplification intervals are identified, a loss quantification assessment model is constructed, and the risk loss assessment results are output.

Benefits of technology

It has achieved precise quantification of cascading effects and scientific assessment of risk losses, identified the core areas where cascading effects are most significant, provided scientific risk loss assessment results, and supported disaster prevention and mitigation decision-making.

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Abstract

This application discloses a method and apparatus for quantitatively assessing the risk and loss of flash flood disasters considering cascading effects, relating to the field of disaster prevention and mitigation technology. The method simulates flood evolution by constructing a hydrodynamic model that includes a baseline and multiple coupled operating conditions, outputs simulation results, and calculates risk indicators under each operating condition. It accurately quantifies the cascading risk amplification coefficient by comparing the indicator values ​​of the baseline and coupled operating conditions. Furthermore, it establishes a grading standard based on the cascading risk amplification coefficient and identifies key risk intervals. Finally, by embedding the amplification coefficient into the loss assessment model, it accurately calculates the loss in the key risk intervals, achieving precise quantification and scientific assessment of the entire process of cascading effects from physical mechanisms to economic losses.
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