A resident life electricity consumption prediction method and device

By constructing a dynamic model of population, economy, and electricity consumption system, the problem of the inability to reflect the impact of population structure changes in existing technologies has been solved, and the accuracy and stability of medium- and long-term electricity consumption forecasts have been achieved. This model is applicable to residential electricity consumption forecasts in different regions.

CN122311543APending Publication Date: 2026-06-30SHAANXI UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202610415678.9
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2026-03-31
Publication Date
2026-06-30

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing electricity consumption forecasting methods are unable to reflect the long-term impact of population structure changes on electricity consumption behavior, resulting in insufficient accuracy in medium- and long-term forecasts.

Method used

A dynamic model of population, economy, and electricity consumption system is constructed. By coupling the population structure subsystem, socio-economic subsystem, and residential electronic system, a closed-loop feedback system is established to reflect the dynamic evolution of electricity demand under multi-factor coupling conditions.

Benefits of technology

It improves the accuracy and stability of medium- and long-term residential electricity consumption forecasts, and can systematically predict the impact of population structure evolution on electricity demand, providing a reliable basis for power grid planning and energy policy decisions.

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Abstract

This invention belongs to the field of power system analysis and load forecasting technology, and discloses a method and device for forecasting residential electricity consumption. The method couples the population structure subsystem, socio-economic subsystem, and residential electricity consumption system to construct a closed-loop feedback system, forming a system dynamics model. Based on the current initial value of per capita electricity consumption and the calculated rate of change of per capita electricity consumption, the predicted per capita electricity consumption is calculated. This invention can effectively reflect the dynamic evolution of electricity demand under multi-factor coupling conditions, and can provide intuitive and reliable decision-making basis for power grid planning, power load management, and energy policy formulation. It is applicable to medium- and long-term forecasting scenarios of residential electricity consumption at different regional scales.
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Citation Information

Patent Citations

  • Resident living electricity consumption prediction method

    CN113139672A