Seasonal frozen region railway subgrade settlement prediction method based on improved echo state network
By improving the method for predicting railway subgrade settlement in seasonally frozen areas using echo state networks, an IESN model with a small-world network topology was constructed using a multi-sensor monitoring platform and feature reconstruction technology. Hyperparameters were optimized, which solved the complexity and uncertainty problems in predicting railway subgrade deformation in seasonally frozen areas and achieved high-precision settlement prediction.
Patent Information
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN Β· China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- LANZHOU JIAOTONG UNIV
- Filing Date
- 2026-05-25
- Publication Date
- 2026-07-14
AI Technical Summary
Predicting railway subgrade deformation in seasonally frozen areas faces challenges such as complex mechanisms, inconsistent data quality, insufficient model feature capture capabilities, and difficulties in hyperparameter optimization. Existing methods struggle to achieve high-precision, stable, and long-term predictions.
An improved echo state network (IESN) is adopted, which collects multi-source time-series data through a multi-sensor monitoring platform. It combines VMD and sample entropy to reconstruct features, builds a reserve pool of small-world network topology, introduces a configurable delay mechanism, and uses an improved Ivy algorithm (IIVYA) to optimize hyperparameters, thereby achieving efficient global optimization.
It improves data quality and physical interpretability, enhances the ability to capture complex time-series dynamics, achieves high-precision prediction of railway subgrade settlement, has strong engineering applicability, and its prediction accuracy and robustness are significantly better than traditional methods.
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