Estimation system, estimation program and estimation method

Abstract

To provide a system for supporting marketing with consideration given to competing products.SOLUTION: An estimation system 0 for estimating a degree of variation in a product market share according to trends in a market in which a product group consisting of a plurality of products is sold, includes: an acquisition part of an estimation terminal device for acquiring sales data of the product group, including latest back product sales for every product; a setting part for setting a period of a market life cycle; a product sales calculation part for receiving input of a predicted growth rate of the latest market sales, and using a calculation formula according to periods of the life cycle to calculate an amount relating to future sales for every product based on the predicted growth rate of the market sales and the latest sales for every product; and a share value calculation part for calculating a latest share value representing the latest market share rate for every product based on the latest sales and the latest market sales, and calculating a future share value representing the future market share rate for every product based on the amount relating to the future sales and the future market sales calculated from the latest market sales and the predicted growth rate.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a trial calculation system, a trial calculation program, and a trial calculation method. [Background technology]

[0002] When there are competitors offering the same or similar products or services in the same market segment, companies cannot avoid competing with other companies to gain market share, grow sales, and acquire customers. Market competition with competitors is an important factor for companies, and strategic efforts are required to ensure competitive advantage. In recent years, the global economic downturn has progressed due to population decline and the COVID-19 pandemic, and the competitive environment has become more intense. Therefore, it is essential for companies to constantly understand the trends of competitors and respond quickly and appropriately to changes in the market in order to achieve sustainable growth. However, many companies do not take into account the existence of competitors when formulating marketing plans, and do not have the technology to do so. In view of this situation, a system for supporting the formulation of marketing plans is disclosed in, for example, Patent Document 1.

[0003] Patent Document 1 describes a method of ranking a certain product based on the market share and market growth rate of the company's product at a given ratio, and formulating an optimal sales plan for each rank. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] JP 2003-271803 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] However, the above technology had a problem in that it was not possible to perform analysis based on competitive advantage that takes into account the products of rival companies, which is important when formulating a marketing plan.

[0006] In view of the above-mentioned current situation, an object of the present invention is to provide a novel system that can support the creation of a marketing plan that also takes competing products into account. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, the present invention provides an estimation system that estimates the extent to which a market share of a product group consisting of a plurality of products will fluctuate in accordance with market trends in a market in which the product group is sold, the estimation system comprising an acquisition unit, a setting unit, and a product sales calculation unit, wherein the acquisition unit acquires sales data for the product group, including the latest product sales for each of the products, the setting unit sets the period of the market's life cycle, the product sales calculation unit accepts an input of a predicted growth rate of market sales, which is the total sales of the product group, and calculates an amount related to future product sales for each of the products based on the predicted growth rate of market sales and the latest product sales for each of the products using a calculation formula according to the period of the life cycle, and the share value calculation unit calculates a latest share value indicating the market share of the latest product for each product based on the latest product sales and the latest market sales, and calculates a future share value indicating the market share of the product for each product based on the amount related to the future product sales and the future market sales calculated from the latest market sales and the predicted growth rate. With this configuration, future sales of multiple products can be calculated according to the time of the market life cycle, making it possible to formulate a marketing plan that takes competing products into account.

[0008] In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the trial calculation system further includes a display processing unit, and the share value calculation unit calculates, for each of the products, a latest share value indicating a proportion of the product sales in the latest market sales based on the sales data, and The display processing unit receives the specification of a target product to be analyzed, and displays, for each target product, an indicator indicating whether the ratio between the latest share value of the target product and the latest share value of a product whose ranking of the latest share value is before or after the target product is equal to or greater than a predetermined value. By configuring in this way, it is possible to confirm the ratio of product market share values, and to easily understand which competing products one should compete against.

[0009] In a preferred form of the present invention, the estimation system further includes a market sales calculation unit, which calculates the latest market sales based on the sales data, and the share value calculation unit calculates, for each product, a latest share value indicating the proportion of the latest product sales in the latest market sales based on the sales data, and when the life cycle period is after the maturity period, the latest market sales, the latest product sales of the product, the latest product sales of products other than the product, and the product sales increase / decrease of products other than the product are used in calculating the product sales increase / decrease of a product. With this configuration, when the life cycle stage is at or after the maturity stage, the latest product sales and product sales increase / decrease amounts of competing products are used to calculate the product sales increase / decrease amount taking into account the influence of competing products.

[0010] In a preferred form of the present invention, the market sales calculation unit calculates an amount related to future market sales based on the latest market sales and a predicted growth rate of the market sales, and in calculating the amount related to the future product sales of a certain product, the product sales calculation unit uses the difference obtained by subtracting the future product sales of one or more other products that have a greater influence on increase or decrease in market sales depending on the period after the maturity period than the certain product from the amount related to the future market sales, and the ratio of the difference obtained by subtracting the latest product sales of the other products from the latest market sales to the latest product sales of the certain product. With this configuration, it is possible to calculate the monetary amount relating to future product sales, taking into account the degree of influence of increases or decreases on market sales of the product in the maturity stage and thereafter.

[0011] In a preferred form of the present invention, the market sales calculation unit calculates an amount related to future market sales based on the latest market sales and a predicted growth rate of the market sales, and when the life cycle stage is in the mature stage, the product sales calculation unit, in calculating the product sales increase / decrease amount of a certain product, uses a value obtained by subtracting from the market sales increase / decrease amount the cumulative value of the product sales increase / decrease amount from the product with the largest share value to the product ranked higher than the certain product in terms of the share value, and the proportion of the latest product sales of the certain product to the value obtained by subtracting from the latest market sales the cumulative value of the latest product sales from the product with the largest share value to the product ranked higher than the certain product in terms of the share value. With this configuration, when the product life cycle is at its mature stage, it is possible to calculate a more accurate increase or decrease in product sales.

[0012] In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the market sales calculation unit calculates an increase or decrease in market sales based on the latest market sales and a predicted growth rate of the market sales, and when the life cycle period is in a decline phase, the product sales calculation unit, in calculating the amount related to the future market sales of a certain product, uses a value obtained by subtracting from the amount related to future market sales the cumulative value of future market sales from the product with the smallest latest share value to the product ranked lower than the certain product for the latest share value, from the future market sales amount, and the proportion of the latest product sales of the certain product to the value obtained by subtracting from the latest market sales the cumulative value of the latest product sales from the product with the smallest latest share value to the product ranked lower than the certain product for the latest share value. With this configuration, when the product is in the decline stage of its life cycle, it is possible to calculate a more accurate increase or decrease in the amount of increase or decrease in product sales.

[0013] In a preferred form of the present invention, when the life cycle period is a growth period, the product sales calculation unit, in calculating the increase or decrease in product sales of a certain product, multiplies the latest product sales and the predicted growth rate of market sales to calculate the increase or decrease in product sales or the future product sales. With this configuration, even when the product is in a growth stage of its life cycle, it is possible to calculate a more accurate increase or decrease in product sales.

[0014] In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the setting section sets the life cycle period based on sales data acquired in the past and the acquired sales data. With this configuration, the life cycle period can be automatically set using past sales data and new sales data.

[0015] In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the estimation system further comprises a power calculation unit and a display processing unit, wherein the share value calculation unit calculates, for each product, an updated share value indicating the proportion of the product sales in the market sales based on the sales data, the power calculation unit calculates the power required for the product being analyzed to gain a competitive advantage over competing products based on the square of the share value, and the display processing unit displays side by side the power amounts of the product being analyzed and the competing product, as well as the ratio of the two power amounts. With this configuration, the strength of the product being analyzed and the product being compared can be displayed in a comparative manner.

[0016] In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the trial calculation system further comprises a market sales calculation unit, a comparison target identification unit, a demand scale calculation unit, a customer share value calculation unit, and a ranking unit, and the acquisition unit receives an input of the sales data for a product group consisting of a plurality of products, the sales data including sales for each customer and each product, the market sales calculation unit calculates the latest market sales based on the sales data, the share value calculation unit calculates the latest share value for each product, which indicates the proportion of the total product sales for all customers in the market sales, based on the sales data, the comparison target identification unit identifies a product from the product group whose latest share value is within a predetermined value of the latest share value of the product to be analyzed, and the demand scale calculation unit calculates the latest share value for each product based on the sales data. the latest share value of a customer with the largest share value is set as the demand scale of the customer, and the latest share values ​​from the customer with the largest latest share value to a target customer are accumulated in descending order to calculate the demand scale of the target customer, the intra-customer share value calculation unit calculates, for each customer, an intra-customer share value indicating a proportion of product sales of the specified product at the certain customer in the latest product sales of the product group at the certain customer, the ranking unit determines a rank of the demand scale for each customer by comparing it with a threshold value defined for each predetermined rank in the demand scale, and determines a rank of the intra-customer share value of the specified product for each customer according to a condition defined for each predetermined rank in the intra-customer share value.

[0017] With this configuration, products whose latest share value is equal to or less than a threshold based on the latest share value of the product being analyzed can be analyzed, and customers can be ranked in relation to the products, making it easy to determine which customers should be targeted for marketing.

[0018] In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the system further comprises a market sales calculation unit, a demand scale calculation unit, an intra-customer share value calculation unit, a ranking unit, a comparison target identification unit, an estimate target identification unit, and a display processing unit, wherein the acquisition unit receives an input of the sales data for a product group consisting of a plurality of products, the sales data including a customer and sales for each of the products, the market sales calculation unit calculates the latest market sales based on the sales data, the share value calculation unit calculates a latest share value for each of the products indicating a proportion of the total product sales for all customers in the market sales based on the sales data, the comparison target identification unit identifies, among the competing products, products whose latest share value is equal to or less than a threshold based on the latest share value of the product to be analyzed, the demand scale calculation unit sets the latest share value of the customer with the largest latest share value as the demand scale of the customer, and calculates the latest share value from the customer with the largest latest share value to the target customer. the intra-customer share value calculation unit calculates, for each customer, an intra-customer share value indicating the proportion of product sales of the identified product to the latest product sales of the product group for the customer; the ranking unit determines a rank of the demand size for each customer by comparing with a threshold value defined for each predetermined rank in the demand size, and determines a rank of the intra-customer share value of the identified product for each customer according to conditions defined for each predetermined rank in the intra-customer share value; the estimate target identification unit identifies the identified product as a trial calculation target product when there is a customer that belongs to a specific combination of combinations of the demand size and the intra-customer share value ranks; and the force capacity calculation unit calculates the force capacity of the product identified as the trial calculation target product among the competing products. With this configuration, products whose latest share value is equal to or less than a threshold based on the latest share value of the product being analyzed can be analyzed, and customers can be ranked with respect to the products. Depending on the rank, it is then easy to determine how much effort should be invested in marketing. Effect of the Invention

[0019] The present invention has an effect of providing a novel technique that can support the creation of a marketing plan that also takes competitors into consideration. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0020] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a market life cycle. [Diagram 2] FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Diagram 3] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 4] 1 is an example of a processing flowchart according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Diagram 5] 13 is an example of a display screen for calculating an increase or decrease in product sales according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 6] 1 is an example of a display screen for performing a matrix analysis according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 7] 13 is an example of a display screen for performing trial calculation of combat power according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 8] 1 is an example of a display screen for performing trial calculation of a structural share in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0021] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. Note that the embodiment described below is an example of the present invention, and the present invention is not limited to the following example, and various embodiments can be adopted.

[0022] For example, in this embodiment, the configuration, operation, etc. of the trial calculation system will be described, but methods, devices, computer programs, etc. with similar configurations can also achieve similar effects. The program may be stored in a recording medium. By using this recording medium, for example, the program can be installed in a computer, and a trial calculation system or trial calculation terminal device can be configured. Here, the recording medium storing the program may be a non-transitory recording medium such as a CD-ROM. In this embodiment,

[0023] The present invention relates to a system for estimating the extent to which a share value indicating the proportion of a product's sales to a certain customer in the total sales of the product group to the certain customer will fluctuate in response to market trends in a market where a product group consisting of multiple products is sold to multiple sales destinations (hereinafter referred to as customers). The product group in this invention is a collective term for multiple products offered by the company and its competitors that are included in the sales data for each product.

[0024] Furthermore, the present invention uses the company's own product as the analysis target (hereinafter referred to as the analysis target product AP) according to the estimated results of the fluctuation in market share value, and displays in a distinguishable manner which competing product should be the product to be competed against. Then, using the customer rank determined by the scale of the customer and the market share of the product within the customer, the analysis target product AP and the customers to which these products are sold are ranked for each product to be competed against, and it is possible to estimate how much marketing effort should be focused on which product according to the rank. Note that, in the following, the company's own product is described as the analysis target product AP, but a product specified by the user from among the products included in the sales data can also be the analysis target product AP.

[0025] Furthermore, the present invention can estimate the extent to which market share will change as a result of focusing marketing efforts.

[0026] In the present invention, the market trend is the life cycle of the market. FIG. 1 is a graph showing the time transition of market sales, which is the total sales of a product group for all customers, and a diagram showing an example of a life cycle period according to market sales. The life cycle periods include, for example, an introduction period, a growth period, a maturity period, a saturation period, and a decline period. In this embodiment, the period in which the current market sales exceed the previous market sales and the market sales growth rate from the previous time to the current time is larger than the market sales growth rate from the previous time to the previous time is defined as a growth period; the period in which the current market sales exceed the previous market sales but the market sales growth rate from the previous time to the current time is smaller than the market sales growth rate from the previous time to the previous time is defined as a maturity period; and the period in which the current market sales are lower than the previous market sales is defined as a decline period. The fluctuation of the share value in each period is estimated.

[0027] <1. System configuration> Fig. 2 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a system according to an embodiment. As shown in Fig. 1, the trial calculation system 0 includes a trial calculation terminal device 1. A general-purpose personal computer or the like can be used as the trial calculation terminal device 1. Furthermore, in this embodiment, the trial calculation system 0 includes a client computer having a trial calculation program installed as the trial calculation terminal device 1 (a so-called stand-alone type), but the client computer may be configured to be able to communicate with a server via wired or wireless communication, and some or all of the functional components (means) included in the trial calculation terminal device 1 may be included in the server (a so-called server-client type).

[0028] <1.1. Functional configuration> As shown in Fig. 2, the trial calculation terminal device 1 includes, as functional components, a share value prediction unit 110, a matrix analysis unit 120, a force amount trial calculation unit 130, a structure share trial calculation unit 140, a display processing unit 150, and a database 2. The share value prediction unit 110 includes an acquisition unit 101, a setting unit 102, a product sales calculation unit 103, a market sales calculation unit 104, a share value calculation unit 105, and a comparison target specification unit 106. The matrix analysis unit 120 includes a demand scale calculation unit 121, a customer share value calculation unit 122, and a ranking unit 123. The force amount trial calculation unit 130 includes a trial calculation target specification unit 131 and a force amount calculation unit 132. The structure share trial calculation unit 140 includes a rank rate calculation unit 141, a coverage rate calculation unit 142, and a structure share calculation unit 143. This is information processing performed by software (stored in a storage unit 12 described below) that is specifically realized by hardware (processing unit 11, etc.).

[0029] <1.2. Hardware configuration> 3 is a diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of the trial calculation terminal device 1 constituting the trial calculation system of this embodiment. The trial calculation terminal device 1 includes, as its hardware configuration, a processing unit 11, a storage unit 12, a communication unit 13, an input unit 14, and an output unit 15. The processing unit 11 includes one or more processors such as a CPU, and controls the overall operation and processing of the trial calculation terminal device 1 by executing the trial calculation program according to the present invention, the OS, and other applications. The storage unit 12 has a volatile memory such as a RAM capable of storing an instruction set, and a non-volatile storage medium such as an HDD or SSD capable of storing an OS, an estimation program, and the like. The communication unit 13 has a communication interface device for connecting to a network, and controls communication with the communication network NW to input and output information. The input unit 14 has an input device capable of input processing, such as a keyboard or a touch panel. The output unit 95 has a display device capable of display processing, such as a display.

[0030] <1.3. System Functional Configuration> Next, the processing contents of each unit in the above-mentioned functional configuration will be described in detail.

[0031] <1.3.1. Share value prediction unit 110> The following describes each component of the share value prediction unit 110 that calculates the future share value and the like for each product with respect to a product group included in the sales data.

[0032] <1.3.1.1. Acquisition part 101> The acquisition unit 101 accepts input of sales data including product sales for each product and stores it in the database 2. The acquisition unit 101 acquires sales data including the latest product sales for each product and customer for a product group consisting of multiple products (hereinafter referred to as latest sales data). Here, the latest product sales refers to a unit period and refers to product sales for the latest period, but may also refer to product sales for the entire sales period of the product.

[0033] Setting unit 102 The setting unit 102 sets the life cycle period of the market. In this embodiment, the setting unit 102 sets the life cycle period by accepting an input of the life cycle period from the user.

[0034] In a more preferred embodiment, the setting unit 102 sets the life cycle period based on the sales data acquired by the setting unit 102 before the latest sales data (hereinafter referred to as past sales data) and the latest sales data. Specifically, the setting unit 102 sets the life cycle period based on the growth rate of market sales based on the latest sales data from market sales based on past sales data. For example, in July 2023, the setting unit 102 sets the life cycle period using sales data for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022 as past sales data and the growth rate of market sales based on sales data for the first quarter of fiscal year 2023 as the latest sales data. In the following description, unless otherwise specified, the latest sales data is used as the sales data.

[0035] <1.3.1.3. Product sales calculation unit 103> The product sales calculation unit 103 calculates the amount related to future product sales. The product sales calculation unit 103 calculates the product sales increase / decrease amount indicating the amount of increase / decrease in future product sales as the amount related to future product sales. In this embodiment, the product sales calculation unit 103 accepts an input of a predicted growth rate indicating the amount of increase / decrease in the latest market sales after a predetermined period has elapsed (e.g., one year later). Then, the product sales calculation unit 103 uses a calculation formula according to the stage of the life cycle to calculate the product sales increase / decrease amount for each product based on the predicted growth rate of market sales and the latest product sales for each product. In addition, the product sales calculation unit 103 calculates the future product sales, for example, one year later, based on the product sales increase / decrease amount and the latest product sales as the amount related to future product sales.

[0036] <1.3.1.4. Market sales calculation unit 104> The market sales calculation unit 104 calculates the market sales. The market sales calculation unit 104 calculates the latest market sales based on the sales data. Furthermore, the market sales calculation unit 104 calculates the amount related to future market sales. The market sales calculation unit 104 calculates the market sales increase / decrease amount indicating the extent to which future market sales will increase / decrease as the amount related to future market sales. The market sales calculation unit 104 accepts an input of a predicted growth rate of market sales, and calculates the market sales increase / decrease amount based on the latest market sales and the predicted growth rate of market sales. Furthermore, the market sales calculation unit 104 calculates future (e.g., one year from now) market sales based on the latest market sales and the market sales increase / decrease amount as the amount related to future market sales.

[0037] <1.3.1.5. Share value calculation unit 105> The share value calculation unit 105 calculates the share value for each product. The share value calculation unit 105 calculates the latest share value (market share) indicating the ratio of the latest product sales to the latest market sales based on the sales data. The share value calculation unit 105 also calculates a future share value indicating the future market share of the product for each product based on the amount of future product sales and future market sales calculated from the total sales of the product group and the predicted growth rate.

[0038] <1.3.1.6. Comparison target identification unit 106> The comparison target identification unit 106 identifies a comparison target product CP to be compared with the analysis target product AP. The comparison target identification unit 106 identifies, from among the product group, a product whose latest share value based on the latest product sales is equal to or less than a threshold value based on the latest share value of the analysis target product AP as the comparison target product CP.

[0039] <1.3.2. Matrix analysis unit 120> The following describes each part of the matrix analysis unit 120 that ranks customers with respect to a specific product. Note that, although each part of the matrix analysis unit 120 in this embodiment uses the analysis target product AP and the comparison target product CP as the specific product, it may also accept the designation of any product and use the designated product. Also, the following describes the case where the specific product is the comparison target product CP.

[0040] <1.3.2.1.Demand scale calculation unit 121> The demand scale calculation unit 121 calculates the demand scale by accumulating the latest share values ​​for each customer in descending order based on the latest share value. The demand scale calculation unit 121 determines the latest share value of the customer with the largest latest share value as the demand scale of that customer, and calculates the demand scale of the target customer by accumulating the latest share values ​​from the customer with the largest latest share value to the target customer in descending order.

[0041] <1.3.2.2. Customer share value calculation unit 122> The intra-customer share calculation unit 122 calculates an intra-customer share indicating the extent to which the comparison target product CP has been popularized among a certain customer based on sales data. The intra-customer share calculation unit 122 calculates an intra-customer share for each customer, indicating the proportion of the product sales of the comparison target product CP in the latest product sales of a product group at the certain customer.

[0042] <1.3.2.3. Ranking section 123> The ranking unit 123 determines a rank of the demand scale for each customer based on the demand scale for each customer. The ranking unit 123 determines a rank of the demand scale for each customer by comparing the demand scale with a threshold value set for each predetermined rank in the demand scale.

[0043] The ranking unit 123 also determines the rank of the intra-customer share for the comparison product CP for each customer based on the intra-customer share value for each customer. The ranking unit 123 determines the rank of the intra-customer share for each customer based on whether the intra-customer share of the comparison product CP is the largest among the intra-customer shares of the product group for a certain customer.

[0044] <1.3.3. Military Strength Estimation Department 130> The following describes each part of the power estimation unit 130 that estimates the power of a specific product.

[0045] <1.3.3.1. Estimation Target Identification Section 131> The trial calculation target specifying unit 131 specifies a trial calculation target product SP for which a force amount is to be estimated. The trial calculation target specifying unit 131 specifies a product that is sold to a customer belonging to a specific rank among the product group as the trial calculation target product SP for force amount. Note that the trial calculation target specifying unit 131 in this embodiment specifies a product that is a competing product of the analysis target product AP and is sold to a customer belonging to a specific rank among the products specified as the comparison target product CP as the trial calculation target product, but it may also accept the designation of any product and set the specified product as the trial calculation target product SP.

[0046] <1.3.3.2. Combat Strength Calculation Unit 132> The force calculation unit 132 calculates the force amount indicating the ease of selling the product. The force amount calculation unit 132 calculates the force amounts of the analysis target product AP and the trial calculation target product SP based on the square of the latest share value.

[0047] <1.3.4. Structure Share Estimation Section 140> The following describes each part of the structure share estimation unit 140 that calculates the structure share for a specific product. Note that each part of the structure share estimation unit 140 in this embodiment uses the analysis target product AP as the specific product, but may accept the designation of any product and use the designated product.

[0048] Rank rate calculation unit 141 The rank rate calculation unit 141 calculates a rank rate indicating the ratio of the number of customers belonging to the second rank to the number of customers belonging to the first rank for customers ranked by the ranking unit 123 based on the sales data. The rank rate calculation unit 141 calculates the rank rate for the analysis target product AP using a combination of the rank of demand scale as the first rank and the ranks of demand scale and customer share as the second rank.

[0049] Furthermore, the rank rate calculation unit 141 receives an input of the number of customers belonging to the second rank from the user, and calculates the rank rate using the number of customers. In this embodiment, the rank rate calculation unit 141 receives an arbitrary input value from the user, assumes that the input value is the number of customers belonging to a pair of a demand size rank and a customer share rank, and calculates the rank rate by dividing the input value by the number of customers belonging to the demand size rank that constitutes the pair.

[0050] <1.3.4.2. Coverage ratio calculation unit 142> The coverage ratio calculation unit 142 calculates a coverage ratio indicating the proportion of the number of customers who sell the analysis target product AP to the total number of customers. In this embodiment, the coverage ratio calculation unit 142 calculates the coverage ratio by dividing the number of customers who sell the analysis target product AP at a predetermined value or more by the total number of customers. Here, in this embodiment, a customer who sells the analysis target product AP at a predetermined value or more is a customer whose intra-customer share of sales of the analysis target product AP is 5% or more. Note that it may also be a customer whose sales amount of the analysis target product AP is a predetermined amount or more.

[0051] <1.3.4.3. Structure share calculation unit 143> The structure share calculation unit 143 calculates a structure share indicating the extent to which the analysis target product AP occupies the market based on the rank rate and the coverage rate. In this embodiment, the structure share calculation unit 143 determines a variable indicating a weight so that the latest share value of the analysis target product AP is equal to the numerical value of the structure share expressed using the coverage rate, the rank rate calculated based on the sales data, and the variable indicating the weight, and calculates the structure share when the rank rate becomes the number specified by the user, using the determined variable, the coverage rate, and the rank rate calculated based on the input value input by the user.

[0052] Here, the structural share is calculated using the rank rate, which indicates the qualitative structure of the competitive situation with other companies' products among major customers, and the coverage rate, which indicates the quantitative structure of the designated product's degree of penetration in the market, and therefore can be recognized as an indicator with properties similar to the share in an actual market, making it possible to estimate the trend of the designated product's market share.

[0053] <1.3.5. Display Processing Unit 150> The display processing unit 150 performs display processing of various screens, which will be described later, and displays the display processing results to the user. Here, in this embodiment, the display processing refers to processing in which the display processing unit 150 executes processing to generate necessary information, and transmits the generated information to the output unit 15 of the trial calculation terminal device 1, so that the output unit 15 displays the generated information. Note that in the case where the trial calculation system is configured by a server and the trial calculation terminal device 1 (client), and the server is equipped with the display processing unit 150, the display processing unit 150 may execute processing to generate information necessary for display, and transmit the generated information to the trial calculation terminal device 1, so that the trial calculation terminal device 1 displays the generated information, or the display processing unit 150 may transmit a processing command to the trial calculation terminal device 1 to generate information necessary for display, so that the trial calculation terminal device 1 generates information necessary for display, and displays the generated information.

[0054] <2. Processing Flowchart> The estimation method of the present invention will be described below with reference to Figs. 4 to 7. Fig. 4 is a flow chart showing the process up to estimation of the structural share. In the following flow chart, the share value is the "latest share value" unless otherwise specified.

[0055] <2.1. Flow of share value prediction> First, in steps S1 to S5, the processes of each part of the share value prediction unit 110 are executed.

[0056] <2.1.1. Acquisition of sales data> First, in step S1 (hereinafter, "step SX" will be referred to as "SX"), the acquisition unit 101 acquires sales data including customer and product sales for each product group. Note that in this embodiment, the sales data is acquired by accepting an input of sales data from a user, but sales data stored in the database 2 or an external database may be acquired.

[0057] <2.1.2. Setting the life cycle period> Next, in S2, the setting unit 102 sets a life cycle stage. In this embodiment, the setting unit 102 sets the life cycle stage by receiving an input of the growth stage, maturity stage, or decline stage as the life cycle stage from the user.

[0058] <2.1.3. Estimation of market sales increase / decrease> Next, in S3, the market sales calculation unit 104 accepts an input of a predicted growth rate of market sales, and calculates the latest market sales based on the latest product sales included in the sales data acquired in S1. Then, the market sales calculation unit 104 calculates the market sales increase / decrease amount as an amount related to future market sales based on the predicted growth rate and the latest market sales. Note that a predicted growth rate corresponding to a life cycle period is set, and the market sales calculation unit 104 may calculate the market sales increase / decrease amount using the predicted growth rate based on the life cycle period set in S2. In this case, it is preferable to set the corresponding predicted growth rate based on the life cycle period using a machine learning model that estimates the predicted growth rate using the life cycle period and the predicted growth rate as learning data, or a statistical model. As the statistical model, for example, a TREND function, a GROWTH function, a FORECAST function, or the like is used.

[0059] In a more preferred embodiment, a product sales forecasting unit (not shown) calculates the sales growth rate of each product based on the latest sales data using a machine learning model or a statistical model that uses the sales data of each product as learning data to estimate the predicted growth rate of each product.

[0060] <2.1.4. Estimation of increase / decrease in product sales> Next, in S4, the product sales calculation unit 103 accepts input of a predicted growth rate of market sales and uses a calculation formula corresponding to the life cycle stage set in S2 to calculate the product sales increase / decrease amount as the amount related to future product sales based on at least the predicted growth rate and the latest product sales for each product included in the sales data acquired in S1.

[0061] <2.1.4.1. Increase or decrease in product sales during the growth phase> In this embodiment, the product sales calculation unit 103 calculates the product sales of a certain product P when the product life cycle is in the growth period. L Product sales increase / decrease PI L The following formula is used to calculate: Here, the subscript L indicates the rank when the latest share values ​​are sorted in descending order.

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[0062] <2.1.4.2. Increase or decrease in product sales after maturity> In addition, the product sales calculation unit 103 calculates the product sales of a certain product P when the product life cycle is in the mature stage or later. L In calculating the amount of future product sales of a product P, the difference obtained by subtracting the latest product sales of the other product from the latest market sales is L The ratio of the latest product sales to the latest product sales, and the increase or decrease in market sales depending on the period after the maturity period L The difference (difference) obtained by subtracting the amount of future product sales of one or more other products that are greater than the amount of future market sales is used. Here, the degree of influence on the increase or decrease in market sales is the degree of influence on the increase or decrease in market sales, and is based on the ranking of the latest product sales and market share value.

[0063] <2.1.4.2.1. Increase or decrease in product sales during the mature stage> Specifically, the product sales calculation unit 103 calculates the product sales of a certain product P when the product life cycle is in the mature stage. L The amount of future product sales is the product sales increase / decrease PI L The following formula is used to calculate: Here, symbol M indicates the number of products included in the sales data, and symbol i is counted in descending order of share value (rank of share value).

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[0064] <2.1.4.2.2. Increase or decrease in product sales during a decline> In addition, the product sales calculation unit 103 calculates the product sales of a certain product P when the product life cycle is in a decline period. L Product sales increase / decrease PI L The following formula is used to calculate

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[0065] In addition, the product sales calculation unit 103 uses the above formulas (2) and (3) when the number of products included in the sales data is three or more, but when the number of products is two, formulas without the square roots are used from formulas (2) and (3).

[0066] <2.1.5. Identification of the comparison product CP> Then, in S5, the comparison target identification unit 106 identifies the comparison target product CP based on the ratio between the share value of the analysis target product AP and the share value of a product whose share value ranking is in an earlier or later relationship with the analysis target product AP. In this embodiment, the comparison target identification unit 106 identifies a product as the comparison target product CP when the share value of the product whose share value ranking is in an earlier or later relationship with the analysis target product AP is equal to or less than a threshold value of √3 or 3 times the share value of the analysis target product AP. Here, the comparison target identification unit 106 uses a value of 3 times the share value of the analysis target product AP as the threshold value when the sales data contains two products, and uses a value of √3 times the share value of the analysis target product AP as the threshold value when the sales data contains three or more products.

[0067] 5 is a display example of a share value trial calculation result screen for calculating the amount of increase or decrease in product sales, which is displayed on the trial calculation terminal device 1. The share value trial calculation result screen includes a time input section LCI, a forecast growth rate input section MEGI, a current product sales display section CPED, a forecast product sales display section APED, an increase or decrease display section GED, and a range display section RD.

[0068] The time input unit LCI is configured to allow input of a life cycle time. When the setting unit 102 sets a life cycle time based on past sales data and the sales data input in S1, the set time is displayed. The predicted growth rate input unit MEGI is configured to allow input of a predicted growth rate of market sales. The current product sales display section CPED displays the product sales and share value for each product in the product group included in the sales data acquired in S1. The forecasted product sales display section APED displays, for each product, the future product sales calculated by adding up the increase or decrease in product sales and the latest product sales, and the future share value indicating the proportion of future product sales in future market sales (in the illustrated example, forecasted market sales). The increase / decrease display unit GED displays the increase / decrease in product sales calculated in S4, the ratio of future product sales to the latest product sales, and the difference between the share value and the future share value. In addition, products with a negative difference between their share value and future share value are displayed in a different manner from products with a positive difference. The range display unit RD is configured to be able to accept input of a product, and an indicator is displayed for each adjacent product indicating whether the ratio between the share value of the selected product and the share value of a product whose share value ranking is in a preceding or succeeding relationship with the selected product is equal to or greater than a predetermined value.

[0069] <2.2. Matrix analysis flow> Next, in S6 to S7, processing is performed by each part of the matrix analysis unit 120. Note that, although the ranking of the comparison target product CP will be explained below, the ranking of the analysis target product AP is also performed by the same processing.

[0070] <2.2.1. Ranking process> First, in S6, the rank of the demand scale and intra-customer share is determined for each customer. The demand scale calculation unit 121 uses the share value for each customer calculated based on the sales data acquired in S1 to calculate the demand scale of a certain customer, accumulating the share values ​​from the customer with the largest share value to the certain customer in descending order, thereby calculating the accumulated value as the demand scale of the certain customer. Note that the demand scale calculation unit 121 sets the share value as the demand scale for the customer with the largest share value. Furthermore, the intra-customer share value calculation unit 122 calculates the proportion of the product sales of the comparison product CP identified in S5 for a certain customer to the latest total product sales of the product group for the certain customer as the intra-customer share.

[0071] Then, the ranking unit 123 determines the rank of the demand scale for each customer by comparing the calculated demand scale with a threshold value defined for each predetermined rank of the demand scale. In this embodiment, the threshold value defined for each predetermined rank is that the demand scale for rank "A" is 80%, the demand scale for rank "B" is 95%, and the demand scale for rank C is 100%. The number of ranks and the threshold value can be set arbitrarily.

[0072] Furthermore, the ranking unit 123 determines the rank of the intra-customer share for the comparison product CP for each customer based on the intra-customer share value for each customer. When the intra-customer share of the comparison product CP is the largest among the intra-customer shares of the product group, the ranking unit 123 determines the rank of the intra-customer share based on whether or not the ratio of the intra-customer share of the comparison product CP to the second largest intra-customer share among the product group exceeds a predetermined value. In this case, the rank of the intra-customer share is specifically "a" if the ratio of the intra-customer share exceeds the predetermined value, and "b" if the ratio of the intra-customer share does not exceed the predetermined value. Here, the predetermined value in this embodiment is "3" if the number of products included in the sales data is two, and "√3" if the number of products included is three or more, but the predetermined value can be set arbitrarily.

[0073] Furthermore, when the customer share of the comparison product CP is not the largest among the customer shares of the product group in a certain customer, the ranking unit 123 determines the rank of the customer share based on whether the customer share of the comparison product CP exceeds a predetermined value. In this case, the rank of the customer share is specifically "c" when the customer share exceeds the predetermined value, and "d" when the customer share does not exceed the predetermined value. Here, the predetermined value in this embodiment is "5", but can be set arbitrarily.

[0074] <2.2.2. Display of rank table> Then, in S7, a rank table for customers selling the comparison product CP is displayed. Fig. 6 is an example of a display of a rank table for customers selling the comparison product CP, displayed on the trial calculation terminal device 1. In the illustrated example, a rank table for competing product 1 is displayed as the comparison product CP. Then, for each combination of demand scale and customer share rank, the number of customers belonging to that combination is displayed.

[0075] <2.3. Flow of Calculating Military Strength> Next, in S8 to S9, the various parts of the strength estimation unit 130 execute processing.

[0076] <2.3.1. Identification of the product SP to be estimated> First, in S8, the trial calculation target identification unit 131 identifies, from among the comparison target products CP identified in S5, products sold to customers belonging to a specific rank as the trial calculation target products SP. In this embodiment, the trial calculation target identification unit 131 identifies, as the trial calculation target products, products sold to customers belonging to the specific rank "Ab", but if there are no customers in "Ab", it may identify, as the trial calculation target products SP, products sold to customers belonging to "Ac", "Ad", etc.

[0077] <2.3.2. Estimation of military strength> Then, in S9, the combat power calculation unit 132 calculates the combat power of the trial calculation target product SP and the analysis target product AP identified in S8. In this embodiment, the combat power calculation unit 132 calculates the combat power of each of the analysis target product AP and the trial calculation target product SP by multiplying the square of the share value by the numerical value related to the competitive advantage. Specifically, the combat power calculation unit 132 calculates the combat power by setting the numerical value related to the competitive advantage of the trial calculation target product SP to "1" and setting the numerical value related to the competitive advantage of the analysis target product AP to the numerical value input by the user.

[0078] 7 is an example of a screen displayed on the trial calculation terminal device 1 for trial calculation of power. In the illustrated example, the latest share values ​​of the analysis target product AP and the trial calculation target product SP based on the sales data, numerical values ​​related to competitive advantage, and power are displayed on the same screen, and a configuration is made such that a numerical value related to the competitive advantage of the analysis target product AP can be input. In addition, the ratio of the power of the analysis target product AP and the trial calculation target product SP and an index showing whether the ratio of the power exceeds a predetermined threshold are displayed side by side. In this embodiment, the predetermined threshold is "√3" when the number of products included in the sales data is three or more, and "3" when the number of products is two.

[0079] In this embodiment, competitive advantage is determined by indicators such as product strength, the quality of the pharmaceutical company's sales representatives, brand power, amount of management resources, action plans, collaboration with pharmaceutical wholesaler sales representatives, and the trends of superiors, and is the numerical representation of these indicators. This allows you to estimate how much competitive advantage is needed to surpass your competitors in terms of combat power, and you can decide whether or not to invest in combat power depending on whether the required competitive advantage is realistic.

[0080] <2.4. Structure share calculation flow> Next, in S10 to S11, the processes of each part of the structure share estimation unit 140 are executed. In this embodiment, the structure share estimation unit 140 calculates the structure share of the analysis target product AP when the numerical value related to the competitive advantage of the analysis target product AP that makes the power amount ratio equal to or less than a predetermined threshold value is equal to or less than a preset numerical value.

[0081] <2.4.1. Determination of structural share weights> First, in S10, the rank rate calculation unit 141 calculates a rank rate indicating the ratio of the number of customers belonging to the second rank to the number of customers belonging to the first rank for the customers ranked in S6 for the analysis target product AP. In this embodiment, the rank rate calculation unit 141 specifically uses "A" as the first rank and "Aa" as the second rank. That is, the rank rate calculation unit 141 calculates the rank rate by dividing the number of customers belonging to "Aa" by the total number of customers belonging to "Aa", "Ab", "Ac", or "Ad" for the customers who sell the analysis target product AP.

[0082] Next, the coverage ratio calculation unit 142 calculates the coverage ratio by dividing the number of customers who sell the analysis target product AP at a predetermined value or more by the total number of customers included in the sales data. Then, the structure share calculation unit 143 determines the variables indicating the rank rate, the coverage ratio, and the weight so that the numerical value of the structure share expressed using the variables is equal to the share value of the analysis target product AP. Specifically, in this embodiment, the structure share calculation unit 143 determines the sum of the rank rate calculated based on the sales data and the variable indicating the weight, and the value obtained by subtracting the variable from 1 and multiplying the coverage ratio by 2 as the structure share for the analysis target product AP, and determines the variables so that the structure share and the share value of the analysis target product AP are equal.

[0083] <2.4.2. Estimation of structural share> In S11, the rank rate calculation unit 141 receives an input of the number of customers belonging to the second rank from the user, and calculates the rank rate using the number of customers. In this embodiment, the rank rate calculation unit 141 specifically calculates the rank rate by dividing the numerical value input by the user as the number of customers belonging to "Aa" as the second rank by the total number of customers belonging to "Aa", "Ab", "Ac", or "Ad" with respect to customers who sell the analysis target product AP.

[0084] Then, the structure share calculation unit 143 calculates the structure share when the rank rate becomes the number specified by the user, using the calculated rank rate, the variable determined in S10, and the coverage rate. In this embodiment, the structure share calculation unit 143 calculates the structure share when the rank rate becomes the number specified by the user by dividing the sum of a value obtained by multiplying the rank rate calculated based on a value input by the user and the determined variable, and a value obtained by subtracting the variable from 1 and multiplying the coverage rate by 2.

[0085] 8 is a display example of a screen for calculating the structural share, displayed on the trial calculation terminal device 1. In the illustrated example, the company's product (analysis target product AP) is specified as the target for trial calculation of the structural share, and the share value, rank rate (Aa rate in the illustrated example), coverage rate, and structural share are displayed for the analysis target product AP. Then, by accepting a numerical value input from the user in the rank rate input unit RIP, the rank rate is calculated by the rank rate calculation unit 141, assuming that the numerical value is the number of customers belonging to rank "Aa", and the rank rate is displayed. Furthermore, the structural share is calculated by the structural share calculation unit 143 based on the rank rate, and the structural share is displayed.

[0086] In this way, the current structure share is calculated based on sales data, and by making it possible to input the number of Aa rates, it is possible to estimate how the structure share will change in response to changes in the Aa rate.

[0087] By carrying out S1 to S11 above, it is possible to identify competing products that are not significantly different from the latest market share value and that can overtake the latest market share value based on current sales, and to simulate whether it is realistic to overtake the latest market share value by estimating the amount of force required. Furthermore, by comparing the estimated structural share value with the future market share value, it is possible to determine the amount of force required to increase the number of customers belonging to rank "Aa."

[0088] In this embodiment, the product sales calculation unit 103 calculates the product sales L The amount of future product sales is the product sales increase / decrease PIL Calculate future product sales FPE L In this case, the product sales calculation unit 103 uses formula (4) instead of formula (2) and formula (5) instead of formula (3). Here, FME indicates future market sales. In other words, the product sales calculation unit 103 uses future market sales FME instead of the market sales increase / decrease MI to calculate the product sales increase / decrease PI i Instead, future product sales FPE i Using the same calculation method as in Equation (2) and Equation (3), a certain product P L Future Product Sales FPE L Calculate.

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[0089] Although the present invention is a calculation system developed in consideration of the current state of the medical industry, it is also useful for formulating marketing plans in other industries. [Explanation of symbols]

[0090] 0: Estimation system 1: Estimation terminal device 2: Database 11: Processing section 12: Storage section 13: Communications Department 14: Input section 15: Output section NW: Communication network 110: Share value prediction unit 101: Acquisition Department 102: Setting section 103: Product Sales Calculation Department 104: Market Sales Calculation Department 105: Share value calculation unit 106: Comparison target identification section 120: Matrix Analysis Section 121:Demand scale calculation department 122: Customer share value calculation unit 123: Ranking Department 130: Military Strength Estimation Department 131: Estimation Target Specification Section 132: Force Calculation Department 140: Structure Share Calculation Department 141: Rank rate calculation section 142: Coverage calculation unit 143: Structure share calculation section 150: Display processing unit AP: Analyzed product CP: Comparison product SP: Product for which calculation is made

Claims

1. A calculation system for calculating the extent to which a market share of a product group consisting of a plurality of products will fluctuate in response to trends in the market, the system comprising: The trial calculation system includes an acquisition unit, a setting unit, a product sales calculation unit, and a share value calculation unit, The acquisition unit acquires sales data for the product group, the sales data including the latest product sales for each of the products; The setting unit sets a time period of a life cycle of the market, the product sales calculation unit receives an input of a predicted growth rate of the latest market sales, which is the total sales of the product group, and calculates an amount relating to future product sales for each of the products based on the predicted growth rate of market sales and the latest product sales for each of the products using a calculation formula corresponding to the stage of the life cycle; The share value calculation unit calculates a latest share value indicating the market share of the latest product for each product based on the latest product sales and the latest market sales, and calculates a future share value indicating the market share of the future product for each product based on the amount related to the future product sales and future market sales calculated from the latest market sales and the predicted growth rate.

2. The trial calculation system further includes a display processing unit, the share value calculation unit calculates, for each of the products, a latest share value indicating a ratio of the product sales to the latest market sales based on the sales data; 2. The estimation system according to claim 1, wherein the display processing unit receives a specification of a target product to be analyzed, and displays, for each target product, an indicator indicating whether a ratio between the latest share value of the target product and the latest share value of a product whose ranking of the latest share value is before or after the target product is equal to or greater than a predetermined value.

3. The trial calculation system further includes a market sales calculation unit, The market sales calculation unit calculates the latest market sales based on the sales data, the share value calculation unit calculates, for each of the products, a latest share value indicating a ratio of the latest product sales to the latest market sales based on the sales data; If the life cycle is at or after the maturity stage, 2. The estimation system of claim 1, wherein the calculation of the amount of future product sales of a certain product uses the latest market sales, the latest product sales of the certain product, the latest product sales of products other than the certain product, and the amount of future product sales of products other than the certain product.

4. The market sales calculation unit calculates an amount of money related to future market sales based on the latest market sales and a predicted growth rate of the market sales, The product sales calculation unit, in calculating the amount of the future product sales of a certain product, the difference obtained by subtracting from the amount of future market sales the future product sales of one or more other products that have a greater influence on market sales from the maturity stage onward than the certain product; and a ratio of the latest product sales of the one product to the latest market sales of the other product; The estimation system according to claim 3, wherein the estimation system uses the following formula:

5. The market sales calculation unit calculates a market sales increase / decrease amount based on the latest market sales and a predicted growth rate of the market sales, If the life cycle is at maturity, The product sales calculation unit, in calculating the amount of the future market sales of a certain product, a value obtained by subtracting a cumulative value of the amount of future market sales from the product having the largest latest share value to a product having a higher ranking in the latest share value than the certain product from the amount of future market sales; a ratio of the latest product sales of the certain product to a value obtained by subtracting a cumulative value of the latest product sales from the product having the largest latest share value to a product having a higher ranking in the latest share value than the certain product from the latest market sales; and The estimation system according to claim 4, wherein the estimation system uses the following formula:

6. The market sales calculation unit calculates a market sales increase / decrease amount based on the latest market sales and a predicted growth rate of the market sales, If the life cycle is in the decline stage, The product sales calculation unit, in calculating the amount of the future market sales of a certain product, a value obtained by subtracting a cumulative value of the amount of future market sales from the product with the smallest latest share value to a product with a ranking lower than the certain product in the latest share value from the amount of future market sales; a ratio of the latest product sales of the certain product to a value obtained by subtracting a cumulative value of the latest product sales from the product with the smallest latest share value to products with a lower ranking in the latest share value than the certain product from the latest market sales; and The estimation system according to claim 4, wherein the estimation system uses the following formula:

7. When the life cycle is in the growth phase, The product sales calculation unit, in calculating the increase or decrease in the product sales of a certain product, The estimation system according to claim 1 , wherein the latest product sales and the forecast growth rate of the market sales are multiplied to calculate the product sales increase / decrease amount or the future product sales.

8. The estimation system according to claim 1 , wherein the setting unit sets the life cycle period based on sales data acquired in the past and the acquired sales data.

9. The trial calculation system further comprises a combat power calculation unit and a display processing unit, the share value calculation unit calculates, for each of the products, a latest share value indicating a ratio of the product sales to the market sales based on the sales data; the combat power calculation unit calculates a combat power required for the product being analyzed to gain a competitive advantage over competing products based on the square of the share value; The trial calculation system according to claim 1 , wherein the display processing unit processes and displays the power amounts of the product to be analyzed and the competing product, and a ratio between the two power amounts, side by side.

10. The trial calculation system further includes a market sales calculation unit, a comparison target specification unit, a demand size calculation unit, a customer share value calculation unit, and a ranking unit. The acquisition unit receives an input of the sales data including a customer and sales for each product for a product group consisting of a plurality of products; The market sales calculation unit calculates the latest market sales based on the sales data, the share value calculation unit calculates, for each of the products, a latest share value indicating a proportion of the total product sales among all customers in the market sales based on the sales data; the comparison target identification unit identifies a product from the group of products whose latest share value is within a predetermined value of the latest share value of the product to be analyzed; the demand scale calculation unit determines the latest share value of the customer with the largest latest share value as the demand scale of the customer, and calculates the demand scale of the target customer by accumulating the latest share values ​​in descending order from the customer with the largest latest share value to the target customer; the customer share value calculation unit calculates, for each customer, a customer share value indicating a ratio of product sales of the identified product to the latest product sales of the product group for the certain customer; 2. The estimation system of claim 1, wherein the ranking unit determines a rank of the demand scale for each customer by comparing the demand scale with a threshold value defined for each predetermined rank, and determines a rank of the customer share value of the identified product for each customer based on conditions defined for each predetermined rank of the customer share value.

11. The trial calculation system further includes a market sales calculation unit, a demand scale calculation unit, a customer share value calculation unit, a ranking unit, a comparison target specification unit, a trial calculation target specification unit, and a display processing unit, The acquisition unit receives an input of the sales data including a customer and sales for each product for a product group consisting of a plurality of products; The market sales calculation unit calculates the latest market sales based on the sales data, the share value calculation unit calculates, for each of the products, a latest share value indicating a proportion of the total product sales among all customers in the market sales based on the sales data; the comparison target identification unit identifies, from among the competing products, a product whose latest share value is equal to or less than a threshold value based on the latest share value of the product to be analyzed; the demand scale calculation unit determines the latest share value of the customer with the largest latest share value as the demand scale of the customer, and calculates the demand scale of the target customer by accumulating the latest share values ​​in descending order from the customer with the largest latest share value to the target customer; the customer share value calculation unit calculates, for each customer, a customer share value indicating a ratio of product sales of the identified product to the latest product sales of the product group for the certain customer; the ranking unit determines a rank of the demand scale for each of the customers by comparing the demand scale with a threshold value defined for each predetermined rank, and determines a rank of the customer share value of the identified product for each of the customers according to conditions defined for each predetermined rank in the customer share value; the trial calculation target specification unit specifies the specified product as a trial calculation target product when there is a customer that belongs to a specific combination among combinations of the demand scale and the rank of the customer share value, The estimation system according to claim 9 , wherein the power calculation unit calculates the power of a product identified as the estimation target product among the competing products.

12. A calculation program for calculating the extent to which a market share of a product group consisting of a plurality of products will change in response to trends in the market, the program comprising: A computer is caused to function as an acquisition unit, a setting unit, a product sales calculation unit, and a share value calculation unit; The acquisition unit acquires sales data for the product group, the sales data including the latest product sales for each of the products; The setting unit sets a time period of a life cycle of the market, the product sales calculation unit receives an input of a predicted growth rate of the latest market sales, which is the total sales of the product group, and calculates an amount relating to future product sales for each of the products based on the predicted growth rate of market sales and the latest product sales for each of the products using a calculation formula corresponding to the stage of the life cycle; The share value calculation unit calculates a latest share value indicating the market share of the latest product for each product based on the latest product sales and the latest market sales, and calculates a future share value indicating the market share of the future product for each product based on the latest market sales and future market sales calculated from the latest market sales and the predicted growth rate, and the amount related to the future product sales.

13. A method for estimating the extent to which a market share of a product group consisting of a plurality of products will fluctuate in response to trends in the market, the method comprising the steps of: The computer obtaining sales data for the product family, the sales data including latest product sales for each of the products; timing the life cycle of said market; receiving an input of a forecast growth rate of the latest market sales, which is the total sales of the product group, and calculating an amount relating to future product sales for each of the products based on the forecast growth rate of the market sales and the latest product sales for each of the products using a calculation formula corresponding to the stage of the life cycle; calculating a latest share value indicating the market share of the latest product for each product based on the latest product sales and the latest market sales, and calculating a future share value indicating the market share of the future product for each product based on the latest market sales and future market sales calculated from the latest market sales and the predicted growth rate, and an amount related to the future product sales.

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