Ice flood warning method based on coupling ice jam thermodynamics and ice-water dynamics

Abstract

The present invention discloses an ice flood warning method that couples ice jam thermodynamics and ice water dynamics, including the following steps: S1, obtaining river channel topography and river channel environmental parameters; S2, making a simulated river channel model and a comparative river channel model; and configuring an environmental parameter simulation system; S3, adjusting each river channel environmental parameter by gradients one by one through the environmental parameter simulation system, recording ice flood results and statistically analyzing the influence of changes in each river channel environmental parameter on ice flood; S4, obtaining real river channel environmental parameters through a meteorological forecast system and a detector in the river channel, and warning ice flood according to the statistical results of step S3. The present invention fully couples ice jam thermodynamics and ice water dynamics factors, can quickly grasp the influence of changes in river channel environmental parameters on ice flood, and then combines the meteorological forecast system and the detector to warn ice flood in real time, thereby improving the efficiency and accuracy of ice flood warning.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the field of water conservancy and environmental science, and relates to an ice flood early warning method coupling ice jam thermodynamics and ice-water dynamics. Background Art

[0002] Realizing short- and medium-term early warning of ice flood disasters is of great significance for ice disaster prevention and reduction in high-latitude cold regions. Ice flood early warning involves many complex factors such as thermodynamics, ice-water dynamics and river terrain conditions. Existing ice flood early warning methods are mostly focused on the physical mechanism based on the causes of ice disasters. By establishing a long-sequence ice flood data database, early warning is carried out using temperature trend analysis, ice geoelectric testing, ice blocking index and ice risk comprehensive index, etc., but lacks simulation of digital scenes and quantitative evaluation of early warning thresholds. Summary of the invention

[0003] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide an ice flood warning method that couples ice jam thermodynamics and ice-water dynamics, fully couples ice jam thermodynamics and ice-water dynamics factors, can quickly grasp the influence of changes in river environmental parameters on ice floods, and then combine with meteorological forecasting systems and detectors to warn of ice floods in real time, thereby improving the efficiency and accuracy of ice flood warnings.

[0004] In order to achieve the above object, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is: an ice flood early warning method coupling ice jam thermodynamics and ice water dynamics, comprising the following steps:

[0005] S1. Obtain river topography and river environment parameters;

[0006] S2. Make a river channel model, which includes a simulated river channel model and a comparative river channel model; and configure an environmental parameter simulation system for the simulated river channel model and the comparative river channel model;

[0007] S3. Conduct comparative tests by simulating river channel models and comparing river channel models, and adjust each river channel environmental parameter by gradient through the environmental parameter simulation system, record ice flood results, and calculate the influence of changes in each river channel environmental parameter on ice flood, and integrate the influence rules;

[0008] S4. Acquire real river environment parameters through the meteorological forecast system and detectors in the river, and issue early warning for ice flood according to the influence law of step S3.

[0009] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, in step S1, a river terrain acquisition device is used to acquire the river terrain. The river terrain acquisition device includes an automatic cruiser floating on the water surface of the river. The automatic cruiser includes a cylindrical float and a heading controller arranged on the float. The part below the water surface of the automatic cruiser is provided with an underwater terrain acquisition mechanism, and the part above the water surface of the automatic cruiser is provided with an above-water terrain acquisition mechanism. The automatic cruiser is also provided with a GPS. The river environmental parameters are acquired through a historical database, and the upper and lower limits of each river environmental parameter are statistically calculated through the historical data of the river environmental parameters. The river environmental parameters include river soil, air temperature, wind speed, water temperature, flow rate, water level and sand content.

[0010] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, the heading controller includes a rear driver arranged at the rear end of the floating body, a left driver arranged at the left side of the floating body, and a right driver arranged at the right side of the floating body, and the left driver and the right driver are both located in front of the midpoint of the floating body. The heading controller can control the automatic cruiser to travel along the river channel, and in this process, the numerical value of the river channel terrain is obtained through the underwater terrain acquisition mechanism and the water terrain acquisition mechanism.

[0011] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, the underwater terrain acquisition mechanism adopts an ultrasonic ranging system, and the above-water terrain acquisition mechanism adopts a laser measurement system.

[0012] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, step S2 specifically includes:

[0013] S2-1. Produce a river channel inner cavity model through 3D printing according to the river channel topographic parameters;

[0014] S2-2, crush the riverbed soil and spread it flat in a bottom box to make a sand tray, and set an oscillator and a weighing device at the bottom of the bottom box;

[0015] S2-3, start the oscillator, press the river channel inner cavity model downward and gradually submerge it into the sand tray, remove the river channel soil squeezed out by the river channel inner cavity model, inject water into the sand tray until the sand tray is saturated, let it stand and dry to shape, then take out the river channel inner cavity model, and the river channel model can be formed on the upper surface of the sand tray;

[0016] S2-4, planting typical plants in the river model;

[0017] S2-5. Snap a top box sealed with the bottom box onto the bottom box, the bottom box and the top box form an experimental box, the bottom box is provided with a circulating water system, a water temperature regulator, a water temperature measuring device, a sand content meter and a flow rate detector, the flow rate detector and the sand content meter are arranged in the river model, the top box is provided with an airflow velocity control system, an airflow temperature control system, an anemometer and a thermometer, the environmental parameter simulation system includes the circulating water system, the water temperature regulator, the airflow velocity control system and the airflow temperature control system.

[0018] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, the simulated river model is produced by reducing the river channel topography parameters in the same proportion, and the comparative river model is produced by reducing the river channel topography parameters based on the river channel topography parameters and adjusting the curvature and narrowing degree of the curve in a positive or negative direction and then reducing the same proportion.

[0019] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, the bottom box and the top box are both made of transparent materials.

[0020] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, the circulating water system includes a regulating and storing water tank arranged outside the experimental box and a water pump arranged inside the regulating and storing water tank. The water pump transports water to the upstream of the river channel model in the experimental box through a water supply pipe, and the downstream of the river channel model in the experimental box transports water back to the storing water tank through a return water pipe.

[0021] The integration method of the influence of the change of each river environment parameter on the ice flood in step S3 can be expressed by formula (1) as follows:

[0022] L=a(t)+b(v)+c(T)+d(V)+e(h)+f(S) (1)

[0023] Wherein: L is the ice flood risk value, t is the air temperature, v is the wind speed, T is the water temperature, V is the water velocity, h is the water level, S is the sediment content, a, b, c, d, e, f respectively represent the functions of the influence of t, v, T, V, h and S on the ice flood risk value, and the method for determining a, b, c, d, e, f is to adjust a certain river environmental parameter one by one and observe the risk situation of ice flood in the river model, and record and count the corresponding influence rules.

[0024] The beneficial effect of adopting the above technical solution is that the present invention fully couples the factors of ice jam thermodynamics and ice-water dynamics, can quickly grasp the influence of changes in river environmental parameters on ice floods, and then combine the meteorological forecast system and detector to issue real-time ice flood warnings, thereby improving the efficiency and accuracy of ice flood warnings and solving the high risk and high cost problems of manual on-site monitoring. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0025] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0026] Figure 1 It is a work flow chart of the present invention.

[0027] Figure 2 It is a cross-sectional view of the river channel model of the present invention.

[0028] Figure 3 It is a top view of the automatic cruise device of the present invention.

[0029] In the figure: 1, bottom box 2, sand table 3, river channel inner cavity model 4, oscillator 5, weighing machine 6, top box 7, water temperature regulator 8, water temperature measuring device 9, air flow velocity control system 10, air flow temperature control system 11, anemometer 12, thermometer 13, regulating reservoir 14, water pump 15, water supply pipe 16, return pipe 17, automatic cruise control 18, rear drive 19, left drive 20, right drive. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0030] See attached Figure 1-3 , a specific embodiment of the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0031] S1. Obtain river topography and river environment parameters; river topography refers to the contour of the inner surface of the river;

[0032] See separately Figure 3 In step S1, a river terrain acquisition device is used to acquire the river terrain. The river terrain acquisition device includes an automatic cruiser 17 floating on the water surface of the river. The automatic cruiser 17 includes a cylindrical float and a heading controller arranged on the float. The part below the water surface of the automatic cruiser 17 is provided with an underwater terrain acquisition mechanism, and the part above the water surface of the automatic cruiser 17 is provided with an above-water terrain acquisition mechanism. The automatic cruiser is also provided with a GPS; the river environment parameters are acquired through a historical database, and the upper and lower limits of each river environment parameter are counted through the historical data of the river environment parameters. The river environment parameters include river soil, air temperature, wind speed, water temperature, flow rate, water level and sand content.

[0033] The heading controller includes a rear driver 18 disposed at the rear end of the floating body, a left driver 19 disposed on the left side of the floating body, and a right driver 20 disposed on the right side of the floating body, and the left driver 19 and the right driver 20 are both located in front of the midpoint of the floating body. The heading controller can control the automatic cruiser 17 to swim along the river channel, and in this process, the numerical value of the river channel terrain is obtained through the underwater terrain acquisition mechanism and the water terrain acquisition mechanism.

[0034] The underwater terrain acquisition mechanism adopts an ultrasonic ranging system, and the above-water terrain acquisition mechanism adopts a laser measurement system.

[0035] S2. Make a river channel model, which includes a simulated river channel model and a comparative river channel model; and configure an environmental parameter simulation system for the simulated river channel model and the comparative river channel model;

[0036] Specifically, step S2 includes:

[0037] S2-1, producing a river channel inner cavity model 3 by 3D printing according to the river channel topographic parameters;

[0038] S2-2, crushing the river soil and spreading it in a bottom box 1 to form a sand table 2, and setting an oscillator 4 and a weighing device 5 at the bottom of the bottom box 1;

[0039] S2-3, start the oscillator 4, press the river channel inner cavity model 3 downward and gradually submerge it into the sand table 2, remove the river channel soil squeezed out by the river channel inner cavity model 3, inject water into the sand table 2 until the sand table 2 is saturated, let it stand and dry to shape, then take out the river channel inner cavity model 3, and the river channel model can be formed on the upper surface of the sand table 2;

[0040] S2-4. Plant typical plants in the river model; typical plants are the common plant types in the river.

[0041] S2-5, buckle the top box 6 sealed with the bottom box 1 on the bottom box 1, the bottom box 1 and the top box 6 form an experimental box, the bottom box 1 is equipped with a circulating water system, a water temperature regulator 7, a water temperature measuring device 8, a sand content measuring instrument and a flow rate measuring instrument, the flow rate measuring device and the sand content measuring instrument are arranged in the river model, the top box 6 is equipped with an airflow velocity control system 9, an airflow temperature control system 10, an anemometer 11 and a thermometer 12, and the environmental parameter simulation system includes the circulating water system, the water temperature regulator 7, the airflow velocity control system 9, and the airflow temperature control system 10;

[0042] The simulated river channel model is produced by reducing the river channel topographic parameters in the same proportion, and the comparative river channel model is produced by reducing the river channel topographic parameters based on the river channel topographic parameters and adjusting the curvature and the degree of narrowing of the bend in a positive or negative direction and then reducing the same proportion.

[0043] The bottom box 1 and the top box 6 are both made of transparent materials.

[0044] The circulating water system includes a regulating water storage tank 13 arranged outside the experimental box and a water pump 14 arranged inside the regulating water storage tank 13. The water pump 14 transports water to the upstream of the river model in the experimental box through a water supply pipe 15, and transports water back to the water storage tank 13 from the downstream of the river model in the experimental box through a return water pipe 16.

[0045] S3. Conduct comparative tests by simulating river channel models and comparing river channel models, and adjust each river channel environmental parameter by gradient through the environmental parameter simulation system, record ice flood results, and calculate the influence of changes in each river channel environmental parameter on ice flood, and integrate the influence rules;

[0046] The integration method of the influence of the change of each river environment parameter on the ice flood in step S3 can be expressed by formula (1) as follows:

[0047] L=a(t)+b(v)+c(T)+d(V)+e(h)+f(S) (1)

[0048] Wherein: L is the ice flood risk value, t is the air temperature, v is the wind speed, T is the water temperature, V is the water velocity, h is the water level, S is the sediment content, a, b, c, d, e, f respectively represent the functions of the influence of t, v, T, V, h and S on the ice flood risk value, and the method for determining a, b, c, d, e, f is to adjust a certain river environmental parameter by gradient one by one and observe the risk situation of ice flood in the river model, and record and count the function characteristics corresponding to the influence law.

[0049] S4. Acquire real river environment parameters through the meteorological forecast system and detectors in the river, and issue early warning for ice flood according to the influence law of step S3.

[0050] The above description is only proposed as an implementable technical solution of the present invention, and is not intended to be a single limitation on the technical solution itself.

Claims

1. An ice flood early warning method that couples ice jam thermodynamics and ice-water dynamics, characterized by: The following steps are involved: S1. Obtaining river terrain and river environmental parameters: A river terrain acquisition device is used to acquire the river terrain. The river terrain acquisition device includes an automatic cruiser floating on the surface of the river. The automatic cruiser includes a cylindrical float and a heading controller arranged on the float. The part below the water surface of the automatic cruiser is provided with an underwater terrain acquisition mechanism, and the part above the water surface of the automatic cruiser is provided with an overwater terrain acquisition mechanism. The automatic cruiser is also provided with a GPS. The river environmental parameters are obtained through a historical database. The upper and lower limits of each river environmental parameter are calculated through the historical data of the river environmental parameters. The river environmental parameters include river soil, air temperature, wind speed, water temperature, flow rate, water level and sand content. S2. Making a river channel model, which includes a simulated river channel model and a comparative river channel model; and configuring an environmental parameter simulation system for the simulated river channel model and the comparative river channel model; the simulated river channel model is made by reducing the river channel topographic parameters in the same proportion, and the comparative river channel model is made by reducing the river channel topographic parameters in the same proportion after positive or negative adjustment of the curvature and the narrowing degree of the bend; Step S2 specifically includes: S2-1. Produce a river channel inner cavity model through 3D printing according to the river channel topographic parameters; S2-2, crush the riverbed soil and spread it flat in a bottom box to make a sand tray, and set an oscillator and a weighing device at the bottom of the bottom box; S2-3, start the oscillator, press the river channel inner cavity model downward and gradually submerge it into the sand tray, remove the river channel soil squeezed out by the river channel inner cavity model, inject water into the sand tray until the sand tray is saturated, let it stand and dry to shape, then take out the river channel inner cavity model, and the river channel model can be formed on the upper surface of the sand tray; S2-4, planting typical plants in the river model; S2-5. A top box sealed with the bottom box is buckled on the bottom box. The bottom box and the top box form an experimental box. The bottom box is equipped with a circulating water system, a water temperature regulator, a water temperature measuring device, a sand content measuring instrument and a flow rate measuring instrument. The flow rate measuring instrument and the sand content measuring instrument are arranged in the river model. An airflow velocity control system, an airflow temperature control system, an anemometer and a temperature meter are arranged on the top box. The environmental parameter simulation system includes the circulating water system, the water temperature regulator, the airflow velocity control system and the airflow temperature control system. S3. Comparative tests are conducted by simulating river channel models and comparing river channel models, and the environmental parameters of each river channel are adjusted one by one by gradient through the environmental parameter simulation system. The ice flood results are recorded and the influence of the change of each river channel environmental parameter on the ice flood is counted, and the influence rules are integrated. The integration method can be expressed by formula (1) as follows: L=a(t)+b(v)+c(T)+d(V)+e(h)+f(S) (1) Where: L is the ice flood risk value, t is the air temperature, v is the wind speed, T is the water temperature, V is the water velocity, h is the water level, S is the sediment content, a, b, c, d, e, f respectively represent the functions of the influence of t, v, T, V, h and S on the ice flood risk value, and the method of determining a, b, c, d, e, f is to adjust a certain river environment parameter one by one and observe the risk of ice flood in the river model, and record and count the corresponding influence rules; S4. Acquire real river environment parameters through the meteorological forecast system and detectors in the river, and issue early warning for ice flood according to the influence law of step S3.

2. The ice flood early warning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The heading controller comprises a rear driver arranged at the rear end of the floating body, a left driver arranged at the left side of the floating body and a right driver arranged at the right side of the floating body, and both the left driver and the right driver are located in front of the midpoint of the floating body.

3. The ice flood early warning method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The underwater terrain acquisition mechanism adopts an ultrasonic ranging system, and the above-water terrain acquisition mechanism adopts a laser measurement system.

4. The ice flood early warning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The bottom box and the top box are both made of transparent materials.

5. The ice flood early warning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The circulating water system includes a regulating water storage tank arranged outside the experimental box and a water pump arranged inside the regulating water storage tank. The water pump transports water to the upstream of the river channel model in the experimental box through a water supply pipe, and transports water back to the water storage tank at the downstream of the river channel model in the experimental box through a return water pipe.

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