A method for optimizing configuration of carbon neutral energy system considering climate change

Abstract

The application discloses a kind of optimization configuration methods of carbon neutralization energy system considering climate change, first obtain the weather data of initial year to target year and cold, heat and electric load demand, considering the influence of climate change on energy system load and considering the efficiency change of electric energy generation unit, thermal power generation, photovoltaic, solar collector, wind power generation, electric refrigerator and absorption refrigerator under climate change, finally a kind of carbon neutralization energy system considering climate change is presented.The application can realize the "carbon neutralization" goal of energy system, can evaluate the cost required to improve for an energy system to complete carbon neutralization under climate change, the application finds: in order to complete the carbon neutralization goal before 2060, carbon neutralization energy system needs to improve 2% cost, carbon neutralization every 10 years realizes, system needs to improve 1% operating cost more, but at the same time, 9.1% carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of energy utilization, and specifically relates to an optimal configuration method for a carbon-neutral energy system that takes into account climate change. Background Technology

[0002] Since energy supply is the primary source of carbon dioxide production, developing a carbon-peaking energy system and a carbon-neutral energy system is crucial for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Integrated energy systems (IES) can provide reliable and cost-effective energy services to customers with minimal environmental impact; therefore, improving IES to obtain a carbon-neutral energy system (CNES) is feasible.

[0003] Energy system operation is a long-term process, influenced not only by operating methods and carbon policies but also by the environment. The environment affects the demand-side load and supply-side equipment output of the energy system. Studying the impact of climate change on the energy system is crucial for a more objective analysis and optimization of its performance under dual-carbon policies. On the demand side, under the RCP4.5 climate prediction model, with global warming, building cooling loads will increase while heating loads will decrease. On the supply side, when the temperature drops by 10°C, the efficiency of thermal power generation decreases by approximately 0.18%, and when the humidity increases from 35% to 75%, the efficiency decreases by approximately 0.86%. When the ambient temperature drops by 10°C, the efficiency of gas turbines increases by approximately 1%. With constant radiation, photovoltaic power generation efficiency is directly proportional to ambient temperature. The results above all indicate that both the supply and demand sides of the energy system will change under climate change. However, current research is not clear enough on whether the impact of demand-side changes on the energy system is positive or negative, and the research is not comprehensive enough on whether the impact of supply-side efficiency changes on the energy system is beneficial or detrimental. If the impact of these factors on the energy system is not considered, the performance of the energy system under the dual-carbon policy will also be affected. Summary of the Invention

[0004] To address the above problems, this invention discloses an optimized configuration method for a carbon-neutral energy system that takes into account climate change. This method considers the impact of climate change on the energy system load and takes into account the efficiency changes of power generation units, thermal power generation, photovoltaic, solar collectors, wind power generation, electric chillers, and absorption chillers under climate change. Finally, it proposes a carbon-neutral energy system that takes into account climate change.

[0005] This invention proposes an optimal configuration method for a carbon-neutral energy system that takes into account climate change, and the specific design scheme is as follows:

[0006] Step 1: Obtain weather data from the initial year to the target year, and then use Trnsys simulation software to obtain the cooling, heating and electrical load requirements of the simulated building from the initial year to the target year.

[0007] Meteonorm software was used to obtain weather data from the initial year to the target year, and the data was saved in TM2 output format. This software can be used to obtain the weather conditions of a city for each hour of the year, including parameters that reflect the weather conditions such as temperature, radiation intensity, wind speed, and humidity.

[0008] The office building was simulated using Trnsys simulation software. By setting building parameters such as heating, cooling, ventilation, materials, and comfort, the model of the office building was generated. Then, TM2 format weather data obtained from Meteonorm was used as input for the office building to simulate the building's cooling and heating load requirements for each hour of each year.

[0009] Step 2: The efficiency changes of power generation units, thermal power generation, photovoltaic, solar collectors, wind power generation, electric chillers and absorption chillers under climate change are derived.

[0010] Carbon-neutral energy systems can be divided into supply-side and demand-side based on energy supply and demand. The supply-side mainly consists of energy supply devices, conversion devices, and thermal storage devices. Energy supply devices primarily include photovoltaic (PV), solar thermal collectors (ST), wind turbines (WT), power generation units (PGU), auxiliary boilers (AB), and the power grid. Conversion devices mainly include heat recovery devices, electric chillers (EC), absorption chillers (AC), and heat exchangers (HE). Thermal storage devices primarily consist of thermal storage tanks (TST). The demand-side mainly comprises the building's cooling, heating, and electrical loads.

[0011] When the climate changes, environmental changes will affect both the supply and demand sides of the carbon neutral energy system. Changes in temperature, humidity, radiation and wind speed caused by climate change will affect the efficiency of supply-side equipment. In this invention, the equipment considered to be affected by climate change includes: thermal power generation, EC, AC, PGU, WT, PV and ST, while the impact of climate change on the demand side is mainly the change in cooling and heating loads.

[0012] To study the changes in supply-side equipment efficiency when the climate changes, it is necessary to obtain mathematical models relating various devices to climate-related parameters. The relationship between the efficiency of key devices in a carbon-neutral energy system and climate is expressed as follows:

[0013] (1)PGU

[0014] In IES, PGU converts chemical energy into electrical and thermal energy. According to the literature, the power generation efficiency η of PGU is... e,pgu It can be calculated as follows:

[0015]

[0016] In the formula: E pgu For the final output electrical energy of the PGU, F pgu Energy is input to the PGU, E pgu and F pgu They can be calculated separately as follows:

[0017]

[0018] In the formula: W t and W c These represent the turbine power and the compressor power of the adiabatic compressor, respectively, in m. a Cp is the average air mass flow rate. a For the specific heat capacity of dry air, T c,out and T t,in These represent the compression chamber outlet temperature and the turbine inlet temperature, respectively. t W c and T c,out It can be calculated as follows:

[0019]

[0020]

[0021]

[0022] Where: m f γ represents the mass flow rate of fuel gas. a and γ g The specific heat ratios of air and natural gas are respectively (C). p / C v ), r c η represents the compression ratio. c η t T represents the isentropic efficiency of the compressor and the isentropic efficiency of the turbine, respectively. a Indicates ambient temperature.

[0023] (2) PV and ST

[0024] η power generation per unit area for PV and ST pv and η st Primarily influenced by temperature and radiation intensity, it can be represented as follows:

[0025]

[0026] In the formula: I represents solar radiation intensity, γ pv and β pv These represent solar radiation intensity and temperature coefficient, respectively, η ref At reference temperature T ref The efficiency of T. pv For the temperature of the photovoltaic cell, T radio T is the ratio of the average temperature of ST to the difference between the ambient air temperature and solar radiation. pv and T radio They can be calculated separately as follows:

[0027]

[0028] In the formula: T pv,noct The nominal operating temperature (NOCT) of a photovoltaic cell is represented by T. st,out and T st,in These represent the external and internal operating temperatures of ST, respectively.

[0029] (3) Thermal power generation

[0030] Studies have shown that the efficiency of thermal power generation is related to temperature, humidity, and wind speed. Therefore, the relationship between the environment and the power generation efficiency of the power grid can be expressed as follows:

[0031] η gird =f gird (T a ,RH,v a )

[0032] Among them, RH and v a Let η represent relative humidity and wind speed, respectively. Weather data is used as input to a two-layer neural network. gird As the output of the neural network, η can be obtained by training the neural network model with data. gird With T a ,RH and v a The black box model.

[0033] To evaluate the effectiveness of neural network models, root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and R-squared value (R²) are introduced. 2 As an evaluation index, its calculation can be expressed as follows:

[0034]

[0035] In the formula: m is the number of samples, y (i) and Let these represent the actual value and the predicted value of the i-th sample, respectively. This represents the average value of the sample.

[0036] (4) WT, EC and AC

[0037] To determine the impact of WT, EC, and AC on the environment, these three devices were modeled using TRNSYS simulation software. The relationship between WT, EC, and AC output and the environment can be expressed as follows:

[0038]

[0039] In the formula: r wt COP represents the ratio of WT's output power to its theoretical maximum possible output power. ec and COP ac These represent the coefficients of performance for EC and AC, respectively.

[0040] Step 3: Propose a mathematical model for a carbon-neutral energy system.

[0041] Since each enterprise has a certain carbon allowance when implementing carbon policies, carbon neutrality aims to offset the carbon dioxide emissions (CDE) after deducting the carbon allowance. To achieve relative "zero emissions," carbon neutral energy systems (CNES) introduce carbon capture systems (CCS). CNES responds to carbon allowances and carbon emissions through carbon capture devices. CNES also retains the cross-year carbon coupling of peak carbon energy systems. Because the carbon reduction task of CNES is greater than that of peak carbon energy systems, CNES can be considered a further improvement of peak carbon energy systems. In year Y, the carbon capture amount of CCS... The following can be calculated:

[0042]

[0043] In the formula: Indicates the Yth goal Assuming carbon neutrality is achieved by year Y, what is the CO2 emission of CNES in year Y? This represents the CNES carbon allowance for year Y. The calculation is as follows:

[0044]

[0045] In the formula: and λ represents the carbon allowance for electricity purchased from the grid and the carbon allowance for gas-fired appliances, respectively, in year Y. quota,e and λ quota,g These represent the carbon quota coefficients for the power grid and gas-fired equipment, respectively. and Let Q represent the electrical energy purchased by the grid, the fuel energy consumed by the PGU, and the fuel energy consumed by AB in year Y, respectively. Meanwhile, the heat required for CCS operation is Q. ccs The following can be calculated:

[0046] Q ccs =CO 2,ccs ×λ ccs

[0047] In the formula: λ ccs This represents the heat loss coefficient per unit of carbon capture. To satisfy Q... ccs AB is used to supplement the difference in heat.

[0048] Step 4: Input the results of Step 1 and Step 2 into the carbon neutral energy system of Step 3, and use the honey badger algorithm to optimize the configuration of the carbon neutral energy system.

[0049] Using the load and weather data obtained in step 1 as input data for CNES, and changing the CNES equipment efficiency to the efficiency obtained in step 2, this paper aims to study the economics of the energy system under dual carbon targets. Therefore, the objective function of this paper is the total operating costs (TOC), which can be expressed as follows:

[0050]

[0051] In the formula: Y final Y and Y0 represent the last year and the first year of the considered years, respectively. Considering current internationally unified carbon policies, in this invention, Y... final Y0 equals 2060 and 2020, ΔY is 10 years. Let Y = Y0 + ΔY*i, and ATC be the total annual cost (ATC) in year (Y0 + ΔY*i). Y The following can be calculated:

[0052]

[0053] In the formula: and This represents the grid purchase cost, natural gas cost, equipment investment cost, maintenance cost, and carbon processing cost in year Y. The carbon cost includes carbon processing costs (primarily carbon capture). During operation, CNES must also meet electrical balance, thermal balance, and equipment output constraints. At each moment, the CNES electrical and thermal balance satisfy the following equations:

[0054] E wt +E pv +E grid +E pgu =E ec +E ex +E

[0055] Q st +Q r +Q b +Q s,out =Q ac,in +Q he,in +Q s,in +Q ex

[0056] In the formula: E ex E represents wasted electrical energy and electricity demand. wt E pv E grid E pgu E ec These represent the power outputs of wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation, grid-purchased electricity, power generation unit, and electric chiller, respectively. Q ac,in and Q he,in Q represents the energy entering AC and HE. st Q r Q b Q s,out Q s,in and Q ex These represent the heat generated by the solar collector, the heat recovered by the heat recovery device, the heat supplemented by the boiler, the heat released by the heat storage tank, the heat absorbed by the heat storage tank, and the wasted heat, respectively. Simultaneously, the equipment must also meet certain constraints during operation, which can be represented as follows:

[0057] P eq,low ≤P eq ≤N eq

[0058] In the formula: P eq and P eq,low N represents the operating power and lower limit operating power of the device eq. eqThe rated power of the equipment is represented by eq, which includes equipment on both the supply and demand sides of the carbon-neutral energy system. In addition, the CNES model has some model assumptions as follows: (1) It does not consider the carbon dioxide generated during the production and transportation of equipment. (2) Considering the power requirements of the grid for the carbon peaking energy system and the need for better power allocation, excess power can only be stored or wasted by energy storage equipment. (3) Considering the characteristics of the configuration, it is assumed that only the electric cooling ratio can be changed each year, and the other configurations cannot be changed.

[0059] The present invention, by adopting the above technical solution, achieves the following beneficial effects:

[0060] (1) This invention can achieve the goal of "carbon neutrality" in energy systems and can assess the increased costs required for an energy system to achieve carbon neutrality under climate change.

[0061] (2) The present invention finds that in order to achieve the current carbon neutrality target before 2060, the carbon neutrality energy system needs to increase its cost by 2%. For every 10 years that carbon neutrality is achieved ahead of schedule, the system will increase its operating cost by 1%, but at the same time it will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 9.1%. Attached Figure Description

[0062] Figure 1 This is a diagram illustrating the energy flow principle of a carbon-neutral energy system.

[0063] Figure 2 This is a diagram illustrating the impact of climate change on carbon-neutral energy systems.

[0064] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of a two-layer neural network;

[0065] Figure 4 This is a diagram illustrating the operating principle of a carbon-neutral energy system.

[0066] Figure 5 This is a load forecast map for 2020-2060 from an embodiment of the present invention;

[0067] Figure 6 This refers to the efficiency or unit output performance of each device in the energy system in this embodiment of the invention;

[0068] Figure 7 This is an embodiment of the invention illustrating the impact of climate warming on integrated energy systems;

[0069] Figure 8 This is a comparison chart of annual performance without considering climate change and with considering climate change in the embodiments of the present invention;

[0070] Figure 9 This refers to the annual performance of carbon neutrality in the embodiments of this invention;

[0071] Figure 10This represents the overall performance of the carbon-neutral energy system, the carbon-peaking energy system, and the traditional integrated energy system in the embodiments of this invention. Detailed Implementation

[0072] Meteonorm software was used to obtain weather data from 2020 to 2060, which was saved in TM2 output format. This software can obtain the weather conditions of a city for 8760 hours in a year, including parameters that reflect weather conditions such as temperature, radiation intensity, wind speed, and humidity.

[0073] The office building was simulated using Trnsys simulation software. By setting building parameters such as heating, cooling, ventilation, materials, and comfort, the model of the office building was generated. Then, TM2 format weather data obtained from Meteonorm was used as input for the office building to simulate the building's annual cooling and heating load requirements for 8760 hours.

[0074] The operating principle of carbon neutral energy systems is as follows: Figure 1 As shown, energy can be divided into supply and demand sides according to supply and demand. The supply side mainly consists of energy supply devices, conversion devices, and thermal storage devices. Energy supply devices mainly include photovoltaic (PV), solar thermal collectors (ST), wind turbines (WT), power generation units (PGU), auxiliary boilers (AB), and the power grid. Conversion devices mainly include heat recovery devices, electric chillers (EC), absorption chillers (AC), and heat exchangers (HE). Thermal storage devices mainly consist of thermal storage tanks (TST). The demand side mainly consists of the building's cooling, heating, and electrical loads.

[0075] When the climate changes, environmental changes will impact both the supply and demand sides of carbon-neutral energy systems, specifically as follows: Figure 2 As shown, changes in temperature, humidity, radiation, and wind speed caused by climate change can affect the efficiency of supply-side equipment. In this invention, the equipment considered to be affected by climate change includes: thermal power generation, EC, AC, PGU, WT, PV, and ST. The impact of climate change on the demand side is mainly the change in cooling and heating loads.

[0076] In order to study the changes in supply-side equipment efficiency when the climate changes, it is necessary to obtain the mathematical model relationship between each piece of equipment and climate-related parameters. The relationship between the efficiency of the main equipment of IES and the climate is expressed as follows: (1) PGU

[0077] In carbon-neutral energy systems, PGUs convert chemical energy into electrical and thermal energy. The power generation efficiency η of a PGU is... e,pgu It can be calculated as follows:

[0078]

[0079] In the formula: E pgu For the final output electrical energy of the PGU, F pgu Energy is input to the PGU, E pgu and F pgu They can be calculated separately as follows:

[0080]

[0081] In the formula: W t and W c These represent the turbine power and the compressor power of the adiabatic compressor, respectively, in m. a Cp is the average air mass flow rate. a For the specific heat capacity of dry air, T c,out and T t,in These represent the compression chamber outlet temperature and the turbine inlet temperature, respectively. t W c and T c,out It can be calculated as follows:

[0082]

[0083]

[0084]

[0085] Where: m f γ represents the mass flow rate of fuel gas. a and γ g The specific heat ratios of air and natural gas are respectively (C). p / C v ), r c η represents the compression ratio. c η t T represents the isentropic efficiency of the compressor and the isentropic efficiency of the turbine, respectively. a Indicates ambient temperature.

[0086] (2) PV and ST

[0087] η power generation per unit area for PV and ST pvand η st Primarily influenced by temperature and radiation intensity, it can be represented as follows:

[0088]

[0089] In the formula: I represents solar radiation intensity, γ pv and β pv These represent solar radiation intensity and temperature coefficient, respectively, η ref At reference temperature T ref The efficiency of T. pv For the temperature of the photovoltaic cell, T radio T is the ratio of the average temperature of ST to the difference between the ambient air temperature and solar radiation. pv and T radio They can be calculated separately as follows:

[0090]

[0091] In the formula: T pv,noct The nominal operating temperature (NOCT) of a photovoltaic cell is represented by T. st,out and T st,in These represent the external and internal operating temperatures of ST, respectively.

[0092] (3) Thermal power generation

[0093] Studies have shown that the efficiency of thermal power generation is related to temperature, humidity, and wind speed. Therefore, the relationship between the environment and the power generation efficiency of the power grid can be expressed as follows:

[0094] η gird =f gird (T a ,RH,v a )

[0095] Among them, RH and v a These represent relative humidity and wind speed, respectively, as follows: Figure 3 As shown, the results data from the literature are used as the input data for a two-layer neural network, η gird As the output of the neural network, η can be obtained by training the neural network model with data. gird With T a ,RH and v a The black box model.

[0096] To evaluate the effectiveness of neural network models, root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and R-squared value (R²) are introduced. 2 As an evaluation index, its calculation can be expressed as follows:

[0097]

[0098] In the formula: m is the number of samples, y (i) and Let these represent the actual value and the predicted value of the i-th sample, respectively. This represents the average value of the sample.

[0099] (4) WT, EC and AC

[0100] To determine the impact of WT, EC, and AC on the environment, these three devices were modeled using TRNSYS simulation software. The relationship between WT, EC, and AC output and the environment can be expressed as follows:

[0101]

[0102] In the formula: r wt COP represents the ratio of WT's output power to its theoretical maximum possible output power. ec and COP ac These represent the coefficients of performance for EC and AC, respectively.

[0103] Since each company has a certain carbon allowance when implementing carbon policies, carbon neutrality aims to offset the carbon dioxide emissions (CDE) after deducting the carbon allowance. To achieve relative "zero emissions," carbon neutral energy systems (CNES) introduce carbon capture systems (CCS), the specific principles of which are as follows: Figure 4 As shown. CNES responds to carbon capture devices through coupling with carbon quotas and carbon emissions. CNES also retains the interannual carbon coupling of the carbon peaking energy system. Because CNES's carbon reduction task is greater than that of the carbon peaking energy system, CNES can be considered a further improvement of the carbon peaking energy system. In year Y, the carbon capture amount of CCS... The following can be calculated:

[0104]

[0105] In the formula: Indicates the Yth goal Assuming carbon neutrality is achieved by year Y, what is the CO2 emission of CNES in year Y? This represents the CNES carbon allowance for year Y. The calculation is as follows:

[0106]

[0107] In the formula: and λ represents the carbon allowance for electricity purchased from the grid and the carbon allowance for gas-fired appliances, respectively, in year Y. quota,e and λ quota,g These represent the carbon quota coefficients for the power grid and gas-fired equipment, respectively. and Let Q represent the electrical energy purchased by the grid, the fuel energy consumed by the PGU, and the fuel energy consumed by AB in year Y, respectively. Meanwhile, the heat required for CCS operation is Q. ccs The following can be calculated:

[0108] Q ccs =CO 2,ccs ×λ ccs

[0109] In the formula: λ ccs This represents the heat loss coefficient per unit of carbon capture. To satisfy Q... ccs AB is used to supplement the difference in heat.

[0110] Using the load and weather data obtained in step 1 as input data for CNES, and changing the CNES equipment efficiency to the efficiency obtained in step 2, this paper aims to study the economics of the energy system under dual carbon targets. Therefore, the objective function of this paper is the total operating costs (TOC), which can be expressed as follows:

[0111]

[0112] In the formula: Y final Y and Y0 represent the last year and the first year of the considered years, respectively. Considering the current internationally unified carbon policy, in this paper, Y... final Y0 equals 2060 and 2020, ΔY is 10 years. The table shows the total annual cost (ATC) in year (Y0 + ΔY*i). Let Y = Y0 + ΔY*i, and ATC... Y The following can be calculated:

[0113]

[0114] In the formula: and This represents the grid purchase cost, natural gas cost, equipment investment cost, maintenance cost, and carbon processing cost in year Y. The carbon cost includes carbon processing costs (primarily carbon capture). During operation, CNES must also meet electrical balance, thermal balance, and equipment output constraints. At each moment, the CNES electrical and thermal balance satisfy the following equations:

[0115] E wt +E pv +Egrid +E pgu =E ec +E ex +E

[0116] Q st +Q r +Q b +Q s,out =Q ac,in +Q he,in +Q s,in +Q ex

[0117] In the formula: E ex E represents wasted electrical energy and electricity demand. wt E pv E grid E pgu E ec These represent the power outputs of wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation, grid-purchased electricity, power generation unit, and electric chiller, respectively. Q ac,in and Q he,in Q represents the energy entering AC and HE. st Q r Q b Q s,out Q s,in and Q ex These represent the heat generated by the solar collector, the heat recovered by the heat recovery device, the heat supplemented by the boiler, the heat released by the heat storage tank, the heat absorbed by the heat storage tank, and the wasted heat, respectively. Simultaneously, the equipment must also meet certain constraints during operation, which can be represented as follows:

[0118] P eq,low ≤P eq ≤N eq

[0119] In the formula: P eq and P eq,low N represents the operating power and lower limit operating power of the device eq. eq This indicates the rated power of the device (eq), where eq includes... Figure 1 The equipment.

[0120] In addition, the IES model has some model assumptions as follows: (1) It does not consider the carbon dioxide generated during the production and transportation of equipment. (2) Considering the power requirements of the grid for the carbon peaking energy system and the need for better power distribution, excess power can only be stored or wasted by energy storage devices. (3) Considering the characteristics of the configuration, it is assumed that only the electric cooling ratio can be changed each year, and the other configurations cannot be changed.

[0121] The variables and ranges for optimized configuration are shown in Table 1, and the system parameters are shown in Table 2.

[0122] Table 1

[0123]

[0124] Table 2

[0125]

[0126] Results Explanation:

[0127] To illustrate the impact of climate on IES and the carbon reduction performance of carbon-neutral energy systems, the following case studies are provided:

[0128] Case 1-1: IES for climate prediction based on RCP4.5;

[0129] Case 1-2: IES for climate prediction based on RCP8.5;

[0130] Cases 1-3: SP for climate prediction based on RCP4.5;

[0131] Cases 1-4: SP for climate prediction based on RCP8.5;

[0132] Case2-i: Carbon peaking energy system based on RCP4.5 climate prediction, with a completion year of (2020+10*i), where Case2-1 indicates carbon peaking before 2030.

[0133] Case 3-i: CNES based on RCP4.5 for climate prediction, completed in the year (2020+10*i). Case 3-1 indicates carbon neutrality will be completed before 2030, and Case 3-4 indicates carbon neutrality will be completed before 2060.

[0134] Secondly, the optimized configuration results obtained using the honey badger algorithm are shown in Table 3. Case 3-1 has the highest TOC, while Case 1-2 has the highest CO2 emissions. Since Case 1-4 and Case 1-3 are SP systems, no configuration is required; only their operating costs and CDE need to be calculated. The TOC and CO2 of Case 1-3 are 3.182 × 10⁻⁶. 6 $ and 1.777×10 6 kg, the TOC and CO2 of Cases 1-4 are 3.211 × 10 kg, respectively. 6 $ and 1.798×10 6 kg.

[0135] Table 3 Results of Optimized Configuration

[0136]

[0137] Climate change will have a certain impact on the system's configuration and operation. Observing the solution results in Table 1 reveals the following:

[0138] For IES, the higher the degree of global warming (RCP8.5 vs. RCP4.5), the larger the capacity of TST (Total Heat Storage) will be to reduce heat waste, and the proportion of ST will be increased while the proportion of PV (Polygenous Power Storage) will be decreased. In the same year, the X value of RCP4.5 will be higher. c Both are better than the X of RCP8.5 c Larger, and during the period from 2020 to 2060, X c The cost of IES has been increasing year by year. However, due to the lack of energy storage equipment, the off-peak timing of WT and electricity load demand means that configuring WT cannot reduce the operating cost of IES. Therefore, IES has not been configured with WT.

[0139] The impact of climate change on building energy storage systems (IES) is mainly reflected in changes in demand-side loads and on supply-side efficiency. With climate change, the main impact on IES is reflected in changes in building cooling and heating loads. Based on the Trnsys simulation model mentioned above, the monthly cooling and heating loads from 2020 to 2060 are as follows: Figure 5 As shown. Observation Figure 5 It can be observed that when climate prediction models are all based on RCP4.5 or RCP8.5, with global warming, the cooling demand of buildings gradually increases while the heating demand gradually decreases. However, when the year remains constant, comparing RCP4.5 under government intervention and RCP8.5 without government intervention reveals that the cooling demand under RCP4.5 is less than that under RCP8.5, while the heating demand under RCP4.5 is greater than that under RCP8.5. From 2020 to 2060, under the RCP4.5 projection, the cooling load increases by 6.869% per decade, while the heating demand decreases by 3.399% per decade. Under the RCP8.5 projection, the cooling load increases by 10.263% per decade, while the heating demand decreases by 4.602% per decade.

[0140] The impact of climate change on the supply side is reflected in changes in the output of various equipment. Based on the mathematical model in Part II, the efficiency (or unit output) of each piece of equipment on the supply side from 2020 to 2060 can be calculated as follows: Figure 6 As shown, where Figure 6 (a) represents the annual average power generation efficiency of PGU and the power grid, respectively. Figure 6 (b) indicates the unit output or power factor of PV, ST, and WT. Figure 6 (c) represents the COP of EC and AC, from Figure 6It can be observed that with global warming, firstly, the power generation efficiency of both the PGU (Power Generation Unit) and the power grid decreases year by year, by approximately 0.042% and 0.0513% respectively every 10 years. Secondly, the unit output of PV (Power Generation Unit) and ST (Power Grid) increases year by year, by approximately 0.24908 W / m² respectively every 10 years. 2 and 1.01098W / m 2 Because the average annual wind speed has not changed significantly despite climate change, the power coefficient of the European Wheatstone (WT) shows a fluctuating upward trend due to the combined effects of wind speed and temperature. From 2020 to 2060, the WT power coefficient increases from 0.1569 to 0.1576. Finally, the COP of both the European Central Bank (EC) and the European Central Bank (AC) gradually decreases with global warming. ac and COP ec They decreased by approximately 0.00136 and 0.00722 every 10 years, respectively.

[0141] The above discussion reveals that, on the demand side of IES, global warming leads to a decrease in overall IES heat demand and an increase in cooling load; on the supply side, global warming reduces the operating efficiency of thermal power generation, PGU, AC, and EC, while increasing the unit capacity of PV and ST. Under the dual influence of these demand and supply sides, the IES's ATC and annual CDE will also change. After optimization, the IES's CDE and annual operating cost (ATC) for 2020-2060 are obtained as follows: Figure 7 (a) and Figure 7 As shown in (b). Analysis Figure 7It can be observed that with global warming, both CO2 emissions and ATC increase year by year in both the IES and SP systems. The average ATC growth rates for Cases 1-1 to 1-4 are 1.18%, 1.54%, 0.82%, and 1.14%, respectively, while the average CO2 emission growth rates are 0.92%, 1.22%, 0.60%, and 1.10%, respectively. Comparing Cases 1-1 and 1-3, and Cases 1-2 and 1-4, it can be found that under the same climate prediction model, the CDE and ATC of the IES system are lower than those of the SP system. The IES system can achieve low carbon emissions while reducing ATC, and the average growth rates of both ATC and CO2 emissions in the IES system are greater than those in the SP system. Comparing Case 1-1 and Case 1-2, and Case 1-3 and Case 1-4, reveals that under the same system model, RCP8.5, without considering government climate intervention, has a greater negative impact on the IES and SP systems due to the greater degree of global warming. Both CO2 and ATC increase, and the average growth rates of ATC and CDE in RCP8.5 are greater than those in RCP4.5. In conclusion, global warming increases both ATC and CO2 emissions in the IES and SP systems, with the increase in RCP8.5 being greater than that in RCP4.5.

[0142] To analyze whether the rise in ATC and CO2 was due to supply-side or demand-side factors, a controlled variable method was used to compare TOC and CDE in Case 1-1 (considering changes in both supply and demand), Case 1-5 (considering only supply-side changes), Case 1-6 (considering only demand-side changes), and Case 1-7 (not considering changes in either supply or demand). Case 1-5 was based on RCP4.5, yielding comparative results. Figure 8As shown in the figure, TOCIR and CDEIR represent the increases in TOC and CDE for Cases 1-7, respectively. The TOC and CDE for Cases 1-7 are $2,911,600 and 11,523,000 kg, respectively. Except for Cases 1-6, both TOC and CDE increased in Cases 1-1 and 1-5, which considered supply-side changes. However, both TOC and CDE decreased in Cases 1-6, which only considered demand-side changes and not supply-side changes. Comparing the increase rates of Cases 1-1 and 1-5, it can be seen that the growth rate of Case 1-5, which did not consider demand-side changes, was greater than that of Case 1-1, which did consider demand-side changes. In conclusion, with global warming, the increase in cooling load and the decrease in heating load on the demand side will cause the TOC and CDE of IES to decrease, while changes in equipment efficiency on the supply side will cause TOC and CDE to increase. The reason for this phenomenon may be that the increased cooling load due to global warming is less than the increased heating load (because according to the law of conservation of energy, global warming increases the radiant energy provided by the sun to the entire IES), the total energy required by the IES decreases, and since the COP of the EC is greater than 1, for every 1 kW increase in cooling demand, the electrical energy required by the IES is less than 1 kW.

[0143] To demonstrate the performance of CNES, Case 1-1 (without considering carbon policy) and Cases 3-1 to 3-4 of CNES were compared, and the comparison results are as follows: Figure 9 As shown, from Figure 9 (a) It can be observed that carbon neutrality led to varying degrees of improvement in the system's ATC. Cases with earlier carbon neutrality target years also saw a sudden increase in ATC in earlier years, and the ATC of all CNES cases was greater than that of Case 1-1. From Figure 9 (b) It can be observed that under CNES, each case achieved the corresponding carbon neutralization target and reduced the CDE of Case 3-1 to Case 3-4.

[0144] To demonstrate the differences between CNES and traditional IES and CPES (Cycle Peak Energy Systems), Case 1-1 is compared with {Case 2-1~Case 2-3} and {Case 3-1~Case 3-4}, analyzing their Total Cost Savings Rate (TOCSR) and Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Rate (CDESR). TOCSR and CDESR represent the total cost savings rate and carbon dioxide emission reduction rate, respectively. The comparison results are as follows. Figure 10As shown, TOCSR and CDESR refer to the savings rates for Case 1-1. Comparing Case 1-1, Case 2-1, and Case 3-1, it can be found that the TOC of the carbon peaking energy system and CNES is 1.97% and 5.02% higher than that of Case 1-1, respectively, but the CDE is reduced by 1.59% and 46.23%. Comparing Case 2-1 and Case 3-1, it can be found that when the achievement timeframe is the same (both before 2030), CNES increases TOC more than the carbon peaking energy system. The TOC of Case 2-1 is 3.05% lower than that of Case 3-1, but the CDE of Case 3-1 is 44.64% lower than that of Case 2-1. Comparing the three Case 2 cases, it can be found that for every 10 years the carbon peaking achievement timeframe is advanced, TOC increases by an average of 0.93%, and CDE decreases by an average of 0.24%. Comparing the four Case 3 examples reveals that for every 10 years the carbon neutrality target is achieved earlier (earliest before 2030, latest before 2060), the total carbon emissions (TOC) increase by approximately 1%, while the carbon emission reduction (CDE) decreases by an average of 9.1%. Observing Case 2-1 and Case 3-4 shows that to achieve China's current dual-carbon targets, the carbon peaking energy system and CNES require an increase in TOC of 1.97% (for carbon peaking before 2030) and 2% (for carbon neutrality before 2060), respectively.

[0145] The above specific implementation examples are only for the purpose of helping those skilled in the art to understand the present invention. However, the present invention is not limited to the situations in the examples. For those skilled in the art, as long as the various changes are within the spirit and scope of the present invention as defined and determined by the appended claims, these changes are obvious. All inventions utilizing the concept of the present invention are protected.

Claims

1. An optimal allocation method for a carbon-neutral energy system considering climate change, comprising the following steps: Step 1: Obtain weather data from the initial year to the target year, and then use Trnsys simulation software to obtain the cooling, heating and electrical load requirements of the simulated building from the initial year to the target year. Step 2: The efficiency changes of power generation units, thermal power generation, photovoltaic, solar collectors, wind power generation, electric chillers and absorption chillers under climate change are derived. Step 3: Propose a mathematical model for a Carbon Neutral Energy System (CNES). CNES incorporates a Carbon Capture System (CCS). CNES responds to carbon capture devices through coupling with carbon allowances and carbon emissions. Simultaneously, CNES retains the interannual carbon coupling of peak carbon energy systems. In the CNES mathematical model, carbon neutrality is achieved by deducting carbon allowances from carbon emissions. In year Y, the carbon capture amount by the CCS is... The calculation is as follows: ， In the formula: Indicates the first Assuming carbon neutrality is achieved by year Y, what is the CO2 emission of CNES in year Y? Indicates the first Annual CNES carbon allowance The calculation is as follows: ， In the formula: and These represent the carbon allowance for electricity purchased from the grid and the carbon allowance for gas-fired equipment, respectively, in year Y. and These represent the carbon quota coefficients for the power grid and gas-fired equipment, respectively. , and These represent the electrical energy purchased by the grid in year Y, the fuel energy consumed by the power generation unit PGU, and the fuel energy consumed by the auxiliary boiler AB, respectively; and the heat required for CCS operation. The calculation is as follows: ， In the formula: This represents the heat loss coefficient per unit of carbon capture, in order to satisfy... The difference in heat is supplemented using AB. Step 4: Input the results of Step 1 and Step 2 into the carbon neutral energy system of Step 3, and use the honey badger algorithm to optimize the configuration of the carbon neutral energy system.

2. The method for optimizing the allocation of a carbon-neutral energy system considering climate change according to claim 1, characterized in that, The specific steps of step 1 are as follows: Meteonorm software was used to obtain weather data from the initial year to the target year, and the data was saved in TM2 output format. The software was used to obtain parameters reflecting the weather conditions of a city for each hour of the year, including temperature, radiation intensity, wind speed, and humidity. The office building was simulated using Trnsys simulation software. By setting building parameters such as heating, cooling, ventilation, materials, and comfort, the model of the office building was generated. Then, TM2 format weather data obtained from Meteonorm was used as input for the office building to simulate the building's cooling and heating load requirements for each hour of each year.

3. The method for optimizing the allocation of a carbon-neutral energy system considering climate change according to claim 1, characterized in that, The specific steps of step 2 are as follows: Carbon-neutral energy systems are divided into supply side and demand side according to energy supply and demand. The supply side includes energy supply devices, conversion devices, and thermal storage devices. Energy supply devices include photovoltaic (PV), solar collectors (ST), wind power generation (WT), power generation units (PGU), auxiliary boilers (AB), and the power grid. Conversion devices include heat recovery devices, electric chillers (EC), absorption chillers (AC), and heat exchangers (HE). Thermal storage devices are thermal storage tanks (TST). The demand side consists of the building's cooling, heating, and electrical loads. Changes in temperature, humidity, radiation, and wind speed caused by climate change will affect the efficiency of supply-side equipment in carbon-neutral energy systems. Equipment affected by climate change includes: thermal power generation, EC, AC, PGU, WT, PV, and ST. On the demand side, climate change will affect the cooling and heating loads. By establishing mathematical models of the relationships between various devices and climate-related parameters, the changes in supply-side device efficiency during climate change can be obtained. The relationship between the efficiency of key devices in a carbon-neutral energy system and climate is expressed as follows: (1) PGU, PGU converts chemical energy into electrical and thermal energy; PGU's power generation efficiency... The calculation is as follows: ， In the formula: The final output electrical energy of the PGU, Input energy into the PGU. and They can be calculated separately as follows: ， In the formula: and These represent the turbine power and the compressor power of the adiabatic compressor, respectively. The average air mass flow rate, The specific heat capacity of dry air. and These represent the compression chamber outlet temperature and the turbine inlet temperature, respectively. , and The calculation formula is as follows: ， ， ， In the formula: Indicates the mass flow rate of fuel gas. and The specific heat ratios of air and natural gas are respectively (C). p / C v ), Indicates the compression ratio. , These represent the isentropic efficiency of the compressor and the isentropic efficiency of the turbine, respectively. Indicates ambient temperature; (2) PV and ST, Power generation per unit area of ​​PV and ST and It is affected by temperature and radiation intensity, and can be expressed by the following formula: ， In the formula: Indicates the intensity of solar radiation. and These are solar radiation intensity and temperature coefficient, respectively. At reference temperature The efficiency of the lower; For the temperature of photovoltaic cells, This is the ratio of the average temperature of ST to the difference between the ambient air temperature and solar radiation. and The calculation formula is as follows: ， In the formula: This indicates the nominal operating temperature (NOCT) of the photovoltaic cell. and These represent the external and internal operating temperatures of ST, respectively. (3) Thermal power generation, The efficiency of thermal power generation is related to temperature, humidity, and wind speed; therefore, the relationship between the environment and the power generation efficiency of the power grid is expressed as follows: ， in, and Relative humidity and wind speed are represented respectively. Weather data is used as input data for a two-layer neural network. As the output of the neural network, the neural network model is trained using data, thereby obtaining... and and The black box model; To evaluate the effectiveness of the neural network model, the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and R-squared value (Rsquared) are introduced. 2 As an evaluation indicator, its calculation formula is as follows: ， In the formula: m is the number of samples, and Let these represent the actual value and the predicted value of the i-th sample, respectively. Represents the average value of the sample; (4) WT, EC, and AC To determine the impact of WT, EC, and AC on the environment, these three devices were modeled using TRNSYS simulation software. The relationships between WT, EC, and AC outputs and the environment are shown below: ， In the formula: This represents the ratio of WT's output power to its theoretical maximum possible output power. and These represent the coefficients of performance for EC and AC, respectively.

4. The method for optimizing the allocation of a carbon-neutral energy system considering climate change according to claim 3, characterized in that, The specific steps of step 4 are as follows: The load data and weather data obtained in step 1 are used as input data for CNES, and the equipment efficiency of CNES is changed to the efficiency obtained in step 2. The objective function of CNES is the total operating cost (TOC), which is expressed as follows: ， In the formula: and These represent the last year and the first year of the years under consideration, respectively. For 10 years, Indicates the ( ) Let Y = The total annual cost ATC at mid-year. , The calculation formula is as follows: ， In the formula: , , , and This represents the grid purchase cost, natural gas cost, equipment investment cost, maintenance cost, and carbon treatment cost in year Y, where carbon cost includes carbon treatment cost.

5. The method for optimizing the allocation of a carbon-neutral energy system considering climate change according to claim 4, characterized in that, The CNES system also needs to satisfy electrical and thermal balance during operation. At each moment, the electrical and thermal balance of the CNES system satisfies the following equations: ， ， In the formula: and This indicates a waste of electrical energy and a shortage of electricity. , , , , These represent the power outputs of wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation, grid-purchased electricity, power generation unit, and electric chiller, respectively. and This represents the energy entering AC and HE. , , , , and These respectively represent the heat generated by the solar collector, the heat recovered by the heat recovery device, the heat supplemented by the boiler, the heat released by the heat storage tank, the heat absorbed by the heat storage tank, and the heat wasted.

6. The method for optimizing the allocation of a carbon-neutral energy system considering climate change according to claim 4, characterized in that, The CNES system equipment needs to meet equipment output constraints during operation, which are expressed as follows: ， In the formula: and The operating power and lower limit operating power of the equipment are eq. The rated power of the device eq is indicated, which includes the devices on both the supply and demand sides of the CNES.

7. The method for optimizing the allocation of a carbon-neutral energy system considering climate change according to claim 4, characterized in that, The CNES digital model is set under the following conditions: (1) Carbon dioxide generated during equipment production and transportation is not considered; (2) Considering the power requirements of the grid for the carbon peak energy system and the fact that excess power can only be stored or wasted by energy storage devices in order to better allocate power; (3) Considering the characteristics of the configuration, it is assumed that only the electric cooling ratio can be changed each year, and the other configurations cannot be changed.

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