Electric power planning risk assessment index system construction method and system

Abstract

The invention provides an electric power planning risk assessment index system construction method and system. The method comprises the steps of constructing a first-level index of electric power planning risk assessment based on an electric power safety supply demand five-level theory; constructing a second-level index of power planning risk assessment according to the first-level index; and obtaining a third-level index of power planning risk assessment through the second-level index, and integrating the first-level index, the second-level index and the third-level index as a final power planning risk assessment index system. The invention provides a more comprehensive risk assessment index system, more multivariate uncertainty factors are taken as risk assessment objects, an analytic hierarchy process thought is established, and the assessment index system is screened in a qualitative and quantitative combination mode, so that the problem of few calculable indexes of current risk assessment can be solved, and the risk assessment accuracy is improved. Therefore, the pre-warning effect of various risk indexes is further exerted, and the power planning scheme is promoted to be more adaptive.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power risk assessment, and in particular to a method and system for constructing a power planning risk assessment indicator system. Background Art

[0002] Faced with various uncertainties in future power supply, medium- and long-term power planning cannot be predicted one by one and in advance. It is urgent to establish and improve the power supply risk assessment indicator system to deal with frequent uncertain events and make advance plans to enhance supply guarantee response. For example, the United States, the European Union and other places have formed a regular monitoring system for power supply risks. In 2019, the European Union passed the "Electricity Sector Risk Prevention Regulation", which clarified the main scenarios of power crises, including extreme weather, malicious attacks, major equipment failures, technical problems, fuel shortages and human problems; the North American Electric Reliability Corporation released the annual "Reliability Risk Level Report", which prospected the specific risk points and impact ranges of categories such as grid transformation, extreme events, network security and critical infrastructure relevance. At present, the relevant research on power planning risk assessment at home and abroad mainly focuses on new energy power forecasting and load forecasting. It is mainly committed to solving the uncertainty impact of new energy and load volatility on the power system, considering the relationship between extreme weather and power system reliability, and also deriving the consideration of power generation fuel price risks. However, it has not formed a risk identification method and assessment indicator system covering conventional power sources, new energy and its external influencing factors, and with multi-dimensional risk transmission characteristics. This issue needs further study.

[0003] As the proportion of new energy access increases, the uncertainty problem becomes more serious. Currently, there are few studies on the quantification of power planning risk indicators, and there are problems such as low calculation efficiency and few computable indicators. There is also no research on the construction of a power supply and demand risk assessment indicator system that adapts to high uncertainty, and it is impossible to accurately and comprehensively assess the supply and demand risks of the power system. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and system for constructing a power planning risk assessment index system, aiming to solve the above-mentioned problems in the prior art.

[0005] An embodiment of the present invention provides a method for constructing a power planning risk assessment index system, comprising:

[0006] Construct the first-level index of power planning risk assessment based on the five-level theory of power security supply demand;

[0007] Constructing secondary indicators for power planning risk assessment based on the primary indicators; and

[0008] The third-level indicators of power planning risk assessment are obtained through the second-level indicators, and the first-level indicators, second-level indicators and third-level indicators are integrated as the final power planning risk assessment indicator system.

[0009] An embodiment of the present invention provides a system for constructing a power planning risk assessment indicator system, including:

[0010] The primary indicator module is used to construct the primary indicators for power planning risk assessment based on the five-level theory of power security supply demand;

[0011] A secondary indicator module, used to construct secondary indicators for power planning risk assessment based on the primary indicators; and

[0012] The third-level indicator module is used to obtain the third-level indicators of power planning risk assessment through the second-level indicators, and integrate the first-level indicators, second-level indicators and third-level indicators as the final power planning risk assessment indicator system.

[0013] An embodiment of the present invention also provides an electronic device, comprising: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the computer program, when executed by the processor, implements the steps of the above-mentioned method for constructing a power planning risk assessment indicator system.

[0014] An embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a program for implementing information transmission is stored, and when the program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method for constructing the above-mentioned power planning risk assessment indicator system are implemented.

[0015] The use of the embodiments of the present invention can include the following beneficial effects: the embodiments of the present invention use more diverse uncertainty factors as risk assessment objects, thereby proposing a more comprehensive risk assessment indicator system, establishing a hierarchical analysis approach, and using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to screen the assessment indicator system, which can solve the problem of the current lack of calculable indicators for risk assessment. The power planning risk assessment indicator system proposed based on the embodiments of the present invention can further play the role of advance warning of various risk indicators, and promote the power planning scheme to be more adaptable. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0016] In order to more clearly illustrate one or more embodiments of this specification or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments recorded in this specification. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative labor.

[0017] Figure 1It is a flow chart of a method for constructing a power planning risk assessment indicator system according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0018] Figure 2 is a schematic diagram of a power planning risk assessment indicator system according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0019] Figure 3 It is a schematic diagram of a system for constructing a risk assessment index system for electric power planning according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0020] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the technical solutions in one or more embodiments of this specification, the following will be combined with the drawings in one or more embodiments of this specification to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in one or more embodiments of this specification. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of this specification, not all of the embodiments. Based on one or more embodiments of this specification, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work should fall within the scope of protection of this document.

[0021] Method Embodiment

[0022] According to an embodiment of the present invention, a method for constructing a power planning risk assessment indicator system is provided. Figure 1 is a flow chart of a method for constructing a power planning risk assessment indicator system according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 1 As shown, the method for constructing a power planning risk assessment indicator system according to an embodiment of the present invention specifically includes:

[0023] Step S101, constructing a first-level indicator for power planning risk assessment based on the five-level theory of power security supply requirements;

[0024] The five-level theory of demand includes supply availability, supply stability, supply abundance, supply economy and supply autonomy;

[0025] The first-level indicators include construction risk, meteorological risk, adequacy risk, economic risk and flexibility risk;

[0026] Step S102, constructing secondary indicators for power planning risk assessment based on the primary indicators;

[0027] The secondary indicators include lagging coal-fired power construction, lagging pumped storage construction, insufficient profitability of conventional power companies, insufficient profitability of new energy companies, drought risks, extreme high temperature risks, flood risks, cold wave risks, probability of balance gap under meteorological power, insufficient effective capacity, insufficient local supporting power supply, insufficient power diversification, power generation fuel supply risk, extreme scenario response risk, insufficient prevention and control emergency investment, low electricity cost tolerance, insufficient flexibility resources, new energy consumption risk and insufficient peak load capacity;

[0028] Step S103, obtaining the third-level indicators of power planning risk assessment through the second-level indicators, and integrating the first-level indicators, the second-level indicators and the third-level indicators as the final power planning risk assessment indicator system, specifically including:

[0029] A quantitative assessment is conducted on each of the secondary indicators, and the resulting measured indicators are used as tertiary indicators for power planning risk assessment.

[0030] The following is a specific example of the method for constructing a power planning risk assessment index system according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 2 As shown, the above technical solution of the embodiment of the present invention is described in detail.

[0031] The embodiments of the present invention focus on solving the following technical problems:

[0032] (1) The risk assessment objects are more diverse, not only limited to the uncertainty of renewable energy power generation, but also include conventional power sources, primary energy systems, economic and social impacts, etc., which can adapt to the current trend of increasing uncertainty factors;

[0033] (2) The risk assessment indicator system is more comprehensive, establishes a hierarchical analysis approach, and uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to screen the assessment indicator system, which can solve the problem of the current lack of calculable indicators for risk assessment.

[0034] The embodiment of the present invention mainly includes constructing a three-layer indicator system for planning risk assessment, which is specifically implemented as follows:

[0035] 1. Construct the first-level indicator system

[0036] Starting from the five-level theory of demand for safe electricity supply, including supply availability, supply stability, supply sufficiency, supply economy and supply autonomy, a five-category first-level indicator system is constructed with five progressive dimensions, including: construction risk, meteorological risk, sufficiency risk, economy risk and flexibility risk.

[0037] 2. Construct the second-tier indicator system

[0038] (1) Construction risks: Construction risks mainly assess the uncertainty risks of various power source construction. At present, thermal power companies are not very enthusiastic about power source construction, and the construction progress is slow, which may lead to the risk that the planned power sources cannot be put into production on schedule. The main indicators include: delayed coal power construction, delayed pumped storage construction, insufficient profitability of conventional power source companies, and insufficient profitability of new energy companies.

[0039] (2) Meteorological risks: Meteorological risks mainly assess the uncertainty risks that meteorology may bring to the power system's source, grid and load, and are the biggest uncertainty factor affecting the imbalance between power supply and demand. The main indicators include: drought risks, extreme high temperature risks, flood risks, cold wave risks, and probability risks of balance gaps under meteorological power.

[0040] (3) Adequacy risk: Adequacy risk mainly evaluates the adequacy of the planned installed capacity of the power system to cope with load fluctuations and fluctuations of various uncertain factors, reflecting the resilience of the system itself. The main indicators include: insufficient effective capacity, insufficient local supporting power supply, insufficient power diversification, power generation fuel supply risk, extreme scenario response risk, and insufficient emergency prevention and control investment.

[0041] (4) Economic risk: Economic risk mainly assesses whether there is a risk that the power system cost is too high and exceeds the user's tolerance, reflecting the economic security requirement that the power supply must be within a certain economic tolerance range. The main indicators include: low electricity cost tolerance.

[0042] (5) Flexibility risk: Flexibility risk mainly evaluates the flexible adjustment capability of the power system, reflecting the flexibility requirements of the power system in actively adapting to the large-scale access of new energy. The main indicators include: insufficient flexibility resources, new energy consumption risk, insufficient peak load capacity, etc.

[0043] 3. Construct the third-tier indicator system

[0044] The third-level indicator system is a further refinement of the second-level indicator system, forming specific measurement indicators that can be quantified and evaluated.

[0045] (1) Delay in coal-fired power construction: This is represented by the proportion of coal-fired power plants that have not been put into operation on schedule, that is, the ratio of coal-fired power installed capacity that is expected to be put into operation according to the schedule to the planned installed capacity of coal-fired power.

[0046] (2) Pumped storage construction delay: This is represented by the proportion of pumped storage capacity that has not been put into operation on schedule, that is, the ratio of the pumped storage capacity that is expected to be put into operation according to the schedule to the planned installed capacity of pumped storage.

[0047] (3) Insufficient profitability of conventional power companies: This is measured by two indicators: the loss-making rate of thermal power companies and the impact of long-term economic trends on coal-fired power investment. The loss-making rate of thermal power companies is represented by the percentage of loss-making thermal power companies, and the impact of long-term economic trends on coal-fired power investment is represented by qualitative value evaluation.

[0048] (4) Insufficient profitability of new energy enterprises: This is measured by two indicators: the loss-making proportion of new energy enterprises and the impact of long-term economic trends on new energy investment. The loss-making proportion of new energy enterprises is represented by the proportion of loss-making new energy enterprises, and the impact of long-term economic trends on new energy investment is represented by qualitative value evaluation.

[0049] (5) Drought risks: The impact of drought risks on the power system is mainly reflected in the decline of hydropower output. Therefore, drought risks are measured by the structural characteristics of the power system that are susceptible to drought risks, and are represented by the proportion of hydropower installed capacity, that is, the ratio of hydropower installed capacity to total installed capacity.

[0050] (6) Extreme high temperature risks: The impact of extreme high temperature risks on the power system is mainly reflected in the increase in cooling load. Therefore, extreme high temperature risks are measured by the structural characteristics of the power system that are easily affected by them, and are characterized by the cooling load ratio, that is, the ratio of the cooling load to the maximum load.

[0051] (7) Flood risks: The impact of flood risks on the power system is mainly reflected in the reduction of output due to insufficient hydropower reservoir capacity caused by flood discharge pressure. Therefore, flood risks are measured by the structural characteristics of the power system that are susceptible to flood risks, and are represented by the proportion of hydropower installed capacity, that is, the ratio of hydropower installed capacity to total installed capacity.

[0052] (8) Cold wave risks: The impact of cold wave risks on the power system is mainly reflected in the increase in heating load. Therefore, the cold wave risks are measured by the structural characteristics of the power system that are easily affected by them, and are characterized by the proportion of heating load, that is, the ratio of heating load to maximum load.

[0053] (9) Balance gap probability risk under meteorological power: The balance gap probability risk under meteorological power is characterized by the balance gap probability and balance gap mean under meteorological power simulation.

[0054] (10) Insufficient effective capacity: The ratio of the effective installed capacity of the power system to the maximum load.

[0055] (11) Insufficient local supporting power supply: It is represented by the ratio of self-use controllable installed capacity to maximum load, that is, the ratio of the total installed capacity of supporting power sources such as thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power to the total installed capacity.

[0056] (12) Insufficient power source diversification: This is represented by the sum of the squares of the installed capacity of different types of power sources.

[0057] (13) Power generation fuel supply risk: It is measured by two indicators: the local coal supply-demand ratio and the number of days of power plant coal inventory. The local coal supply-demand ratio is the ratio of local coal production to coal consumption.

[0058] (14) Risk response in extreme scenarios: The risk is measured using two indicators: the mean probability of load loss and the mean load loss shortfall under different extreme scenarios. Extreme scenarios include extreme weather, local wars, international sanctions, etc.

[0059] (15) Insufficient investment in emergency response to prevention and control: This is represented by a qualitative assessment value of the degree of investment in emergency response to prevention and control.

[0060] (16) Low electricity cost tolerance: This is represented by the ratio of the cost per kilowatt-hour of electricity to the GDP per kilowatt-hour of electricity during the planning period.

[0061] (17) Insufficient flexibility resources: This is represented by the ratio of the flexibility resource regulation capacity to the installed capacity of renewable energy, that is, the ratio of the sum of the installed capacity of flexible power sources and demand response capacity to the installed capacity of renewable energy.

[0062] (18) Risk of new energy consumption: represented by the utilization rate of new energy.

[0063] (19) Insufficient peak-shaving capacity: The insufficient peak-shaving capacity probability and insufficient peak-shaving capacity shortfall calculated by power system production simulation software are used to represent the insufficient peak-shaving capacity.

[0064] System Example

[0065] According to an embodiment of the present invention, a system for constructing a power planning risk assessment indicator system is provided. Figure 3 Schematic diagram of a power planning risk assessment indicator system construction system according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 3 As shown, the power planning risk assessment indicator system construction system according to an embodiment of the present invention specifically includes:

[0066] The primary indicator module 30 is used to construct the primary indicator of power planning risk assessment based on the five-level theory of power security supply demand;

[0067] The five-level theory of demand includes supply availability, supply stability, supply abundance, supply economy and supply autonomy;

[0068] The first-level indicators include construction risk, meteorological risk, adequacy risk, economic risk and flexibility risk;

[0069] A secondary indicator module 32, used to construct secondary indicators for power planning risk assessment based on the primary indicators;

[0070] The secondary indicators include lagging coal-fired power construction, lagging pumped storage construction, insufficient profitability of conventional power companies, insufficient profitability of new energy companies, drought risks, extreme high temperature risks, flood risks, cold wave risks, probability of balance gap under meteorological power, insufficient effective capacity, insufficient local supporting power supply, insufficient power diversification, power generation fuel supply risk, extreme scenario response risk, insufficient prevention and control emergency investment, low electricity cost tolerance, insufficient flexibility resources, new energy consumption risk and insufficient peak load capacity;

[0071] The third-level indicator module 34 is used to obtain the third-level indicator of power planning risk assessment through the second-level indicator, and integrate the first-level indicator, the second-level indicator and the third-level indicator as the final power planning risk assessment indicator system, which is specifically used for:

[0072] A quantitative assessment is conducted on each of the secondary indicators, and the resulting measured indicators are used as tertiary indicators for power planning risk assessment.

[0073] The embodiment of the present invention is a system embodiment corresponding to the above-mentioned method embodiment. The specific operations of each module can be understood by referring to the description of the method embodiment, which will not be repeated here.

[0074] In summary, the embodiment of the present invention proposes a method for constructing a risk assessment index system for power planning, which breaks through the drawbacks of traditional power planning that assesses risks through relatively single indicators such as the gap between supply and demand, expands the dimension of risk assessment, and constructs five types of power safety evaluation dimensions, such as construction, meteorology, adequacy, economy, and flexibility, according to the progressive level of power safety. It can fully reflect the cross-system uncertainty risks faced by current power safety; it proposes three layers of detailed risk assessment indicators, which can be evaluated by quantitative-based and qualitative-assisted assessment methods, and can solve the current shortcomings of the lack of calculable indicators for various risk assessments and the difficulty of implementation. Based on the power planning risk assessment index system proposed in the embodiment of the present invention, the advance warning role of various risk indicators can be further exerted to promote the adaptability of power planning schemes.

[0075] Device Example 1

[0076] An embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, comprising: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the computer program implements the steps described in the method embodiment when executed by the processor.

[0077] Device Example 2

[0078] An embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a program for implementing information transmission is stored. When the program is executed by a processor, the steps described in the method embodiment are implemented.

[0079] The computer-readable storage medium in this embodiment includes, but is not limited to, ROM, RAM, magnetic disk or optical disk, etc.

[0080] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or replace some or all of the technical features therein with equivalents. However, these modifications or replacements do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for constructing a risk assessment index system for power planning, characterized in that include: Construct the first-level indicators of power planning risk assessment based on the five-level theory of power security supply demand; Constructing secondary indicators for power planning risk assessment based on the primary indicators; as well as The third-level indicators of power planning risk assessment are obtained through the second-level indicators, and the first-level indicators, second-level indicators and third-level indicators are integrated as the final power planning risk assessment indicator system.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The five-level theory of demand includes supply availability, supply stability, supply abundance, supply economy and supply autonomy; The first-level indicators include construction risks, meteorological risks, adequacy risks, economic risks and flexibility risks.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The secondary indicators include the lagging construction of coal-fired power plants, the lagging construction of pumped storage facilities, the insufficient profitability of conventional power supply companies, the insufficient profitability of new energy companies, drought risks, extreme high temperature risks, flood risks, cold wave risks, the probability of a balance gap under meteorological power, insufficient effective capacity, insufficient local supporting power sources, insufficient power diversification, power generation fuel supply risks, extreme scenario response risks, insufficient investment in prevention and control emergencies, low tolerance for electricity costs, insufficient flexibility resources, new energy consumption risks, and insufficient peak-shaving capacity.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The third-level indicators of power planning risk assessment obtained through the second-level indicators include: A quantitative assessment is conducted on each of the secondary indicators, and the resulting measured indicators are used as tertiary indicators for power planning risk assessment.

5. A system for constructing a risk assessment index system for power planning, characterized in that include: The primary indicator module is used to construct the primary indicators for power planning risk assessment based on the five-level theory of power security supply demand; A secondary indicator module, used to construct secondary indicators for power planning risk assessment based on the primary indicators; as well as The third-level indicator module is used to obtain the third-level indicators of power planning risk assessment through the second-level indicators, and integrate the first-level indicators, second-level indicators and third-level indicators as the final power planning risk assessment indicator system.

6. The system according to claim 5, characterized in that The five-level theory of demand includes supply availability, supply stability, supply abundance, supply economy and supply autonomy; The first-level indicators include construction risks, meteorological risks, adequacy risks, economic risks and flexibility risks.

7. The system according to claim 5, characterized in that The secondary indicators include the lagging construction of coal-fired power plants, the lagging construction of pumped storage facilities, the insufficient profitability of conventional power supply companies, the insufficient profitability of new energy companies, drought risks, extreme high temperature risks, flood risks, cold wave risks, the probability of a balance gap under meteorological power, insufficient effective capacity, insufficient local supporting power sources, insufficient power diversification, power generation fuel supply risks, extreme scenario response risks, insufficient investment in prevention and control emergencies, low tolerance for electricity costs, insufficient flexibility resources, new energy consumption risks, and insufficient peak-shaving capacity.

8. The system according to claim 7, characterized in that The three-level indicator module is specifically used for: A quantitative assessment is conducted on each of the secondary indicators, and the resulting measured indicators are used as tertiary indicators for power planning risk assessment.

9. An electronic device, characterized in that: include: A memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the computer program is executed by the processor, the steps of the method for constructing a power planning risk assessment indicator system as described in any one of claims 1 to 4 are implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores an implementation program for information transmission, and when the program is executed by the processor, the steps of the method for constructing a power planning risk assessment indicator system as described in any one of claims 1 to 4 are implemented.

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