Grain safety suggestion determination method and device and electronic equipment

Abstract

The invention provides a food safety suggestion determination method and device and electronic equipment, and relates to the technical field of international food price research, and the method comprises the steps: determining an international food price based on the import and export trade volume and the import and export trade number of a single crop; the import and export trade amount and the import and export trade number correspond to the same country Determining the time characteristic of the international grain price and the space characteristic of the international grain price; the time features are used for representing changes of international grain prices in different time periods, and the space features are used for representing the trend of market price unification; based on the international grain price and the national income of the target area, determining the international grain price tolerance corresponding to the target area; grain safety suggestions are determined based on the spatial features, the temporal features, and the international grain price tolerance. According to the method, the accurate food safety suggestion is comprehensively determined through the time characteristics, the space characteristics and the international food price tolerance of the international food safety.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of international food price research, and in particular to a method, device and electronic equipment for determining food security recommendations. Background Art

[0002] At present, in terms of food price analysis, international food prices cannot represent market food prices due to relatively simple research methods, single types of food crops, and inconsistent price selection sources. In terms of food security evaluation, the indicator system is inaccurate due to different standards adopted by different countries and the mutual influence between indicators in the construction of the food security evaluation system, making it impossible to give accurate food security recommendations based on international food prices and food security evaluations. Summary of the invention

[0003] The present invention provides a method, device and electronic device for determining food security recommendations, which are used to overcome the defects in the prior art that accurate food security recommendations cannot be given due to the single international food price and inaccurate food security evaluation, and realize the comprehensive determination of accurate food security recommendations based on the temporal characteristics, spatial characteristics and international food price tolerance of international food security.

[0004] The present invention provides a method for determining food safety recommendations, comprising: Determining international food prices based on the import and export trade value of a single crop and the import and export trade quantity of the single crop; the import and export trade value and the import and export trade quantity correspond to the same country; Determine the time characteristics of the international food price and the spatial characteristics of the international food price; the time characteristics are used to characterize the changes of the international food price in different time periods, and the spatial characteristics are used to characterize the trend of market price unification; Determining the international food price tolerance of the target area based on the international food price and the national income of the target area; Food security recommendations are determined based on the spatial characteristics, the temporal characteristics and the international food price affordability.

[0005] According to a method for determining food security recommendations provided by the present invention, the time characteristics include: trend characteristics, determining the trend characteristics of the international food prices, including: trend separation of the time series of the international food prices to obtain the trend components of the time series; based on the trend components, drawing a first trend change graph of the international food prices; based on at least two international food prices and the time points corresponding to the international food prices, fitting a second trend change graph of the international food prices; determining the degree of fit between the first trend change graph and the second trend change graph; based on the degree of fit, obtaining the trend characteristics.

[0006] According to a method for determining food security recommendations provided by the present invention, the spatial characteristics also include: periodic characteristics, determining the periodic characteristics of the international food prices, including: when the time series is a stationary time series, converting the time series from the time domain to the frequency domain to obtain the frequency corresponding to the international food price; based on the frequency and the time series, obtaining a fitting function of the time series; based on the coefficients in the fitting function of the time series, determining the density corresponding to the frequency; based on the frequency and the density corresponding to the frequency, drawing a periodogram of the time series; based on the frequency and the density corresponding to the frequency, classifying the periodogram based on the duration of each period in the periodogram to obtain the periodic characteristics.

[0007] According to a method for determining food security recommendations provided by the present invention, the spatial characteristics also include: volatility characteristics, determining the volatility characteristics of the international food prices, including: determining the fluctuation stage of the international food prices based on the fluctuation direction of the international food prices, the fluctuation duration of the international food prices and the fluctuation amplitude of the international food prices; the fluctuation stage includes an expansion stage and a contraction stage; determining the volatility characteristics based on the expansion stage, the contraction stage and the average fluctuation amplitude of different periods of the time series.

[0008] According to a method for determining food security recommendations provided by the present invention, determining the spatial characteristics of international food prices includes: determining the relative price between a first price of a single crop in a single country and a second price of the single crop in a benchmark country; determining the standard deviation corresponding to each of the relative prices; and determining the spatial characteristics of the international food prices based on a time series of the standard deviations.

[0009] According to a method for determining food security recommendations provided by the present invention, the international food price includes the international food price of a single crop, and the international food price is determined based on the import and export trade volume of the single crop and the import and export trade volume of the single crop, including: determining the first price based on the import and export trade volume of the single crop and the import and export trade volume of the single crop; determining the international food price of the single crop based on the first price and a first weight corresponding to the first price; the first weight is used to characterize the proportion of the trade volume of a single crop of a single country in the international food trade volume of a single crop.

[0010] According to a method for determining food security recommendations provided by the present invention, the international food price is a comprehensive international food price, and the comprehensive international food price is determined based on the import and export trade volume of multiple crops and the import and export trade volume of the multiple crops, including: determining the international food price of a single crop based on the import and export trade volume of the single crop and the import and export trade volume of the single crop; determining the comprehensive international food price based on the international food price of the single crop and a second weight corresponding to the international food price of the single crop, wherein the second weight is used to characterize the proportion of the trade volume of a single crop in the global international food trade volume.

[0011] According to a method for determining food security recommendations provided by the present invention, the food security recommendations are determined based on the spatial characteristics, the temporal characteristics and the international food price tolerance, including: determining the food security risk based on the international food price tolerance; determining the food security recommendations based on the spatial characteristics, the temporal characteristics and the food security risk.

[0012] The present invention also provides a food safety recommendation determination device, comprising the following modules: A first determination module is used to determine the international food price based on the import and export trade volume of a single crop and the import and export trade quantity of the single crop; the import and export trade volume and the import and export trade quantity correspond to the same country; The second determination module is used to determine the time characteristics of the international food price and the spatial characteristics of the international food price; the time characteristics are used to characterize the changes of the international food price in different time periods, and the spatial characteristics are used to characterize the trend of market price unification; A third determination module is used to determine the international food price tolerance of the target area based on the international food price and the national income of the target area; The fourth determination module is used to determine food security recommendations based on the spatial characteristics, the temporal characteristics and the international food price tolerance.

[0013] The present invention also provides an electronic device, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, the method for determining food security recommendations as described above is implemented.

[0014] The present invention also provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements any of the above-described methods for determining food security recommendations.

[0015] The present invention also provides a computer program product, comprising a computer program, wherein when the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for determining food security recommendations as described in any one of the above is implemented.

[0016] The method for determining food security recommendations provided by the present invention determines the international food price through the import and export trade volume and the import and export trade volume of a single crop in the same country; then, determines the time characteristics and spatial characteristics of the international food price; then, based on the international food price and the national income of the target area, determines the international food price tolerance corresponding to the target area; finally, determines the food security recommendations based on the spatial characteristics, time characteristics and the international food price tolerance. In this way, the international food price is determined according to the import and export trade volume and the import and export trade volume of the single crop of multiple countries, thereby improving the comprehensiveness and accuracy of the international food price; the time characteristics and spatial characteristics of the international food price are determined to ensure the feasibility and comprehensiveness of the international food price analysis; the international food price tolerance of each region is determined according to the international food price and the national income of each region, thereby improving the accuracy and independence of the international food price tolerance of each region, and evaluating the changes in the international food price tolerance of different regions in the past, so as to reflect the changes in the food security situation in different regions of the world; at the same time, the food security recommendations are comprehensively determined according to the spatial characteristics, time characteristics and the international food price tolerance, thereby increasing the diversity of reference bases, thereby improving the accuracy and feasibility of the food security recommendations for each region. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0017] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the present invention or the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0018] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the method for determining food safety recommendations provided by the present invention.

[0019] Figure 2It is a structural schematic diagram of the food safety recommendation determination device provided by the present invention.

[0020] Figure 3 It is a structural schematic diagram of the electronic device provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0021] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the technical solution of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0022] The following will first introduce two aspects: international food price analysis and food security assessment research.

[0023] 1. Analysis of international food prices In the prior art, historical analysis of international food prices is the starting point of international food price research. International food prices are generally prices in a specific time and region, so current research on international food prices mainly analyzes historical changes in international food prices from the two perspectives of time and space.

[0024] The analysis of the time-varying characteristics of international food prices is one of the core contents of the historical analysis of international food. At present, the research on the time-varying characteristics of international food prices mainly involves three aspects: first, the trend analysis of international food prices. Affected by the continuous improvement of food productivity, the actual price of international food may be in a downward trend in the long run; second, the analysis of the cyclical characteristics of international food prices. Since the 1970s, international food prices have been affected by various factors, with a total of five peaks and showing obvious cyclical fluctuations. The price fluctuation cycle of major food trade categories is about 6 years on average; third, the analysis of the volatility characteristics of international food prices, focusing on the time period, frequency, continuity and fluctuation range of the international food price cycle, and believing that with the process of world trade integration, the fluctuation range of international food prices is increasing, the cycle is shortening, and the instability is gradually increasing.

[0025] The spatial characteristics analysis of international grain prices mainly combines the spatial attributes of international grain prices to analyze the relationship between grain prices in different market regions and prices of different types of grain crops in the same region. At present, related research mainly uses the "law of one price" law of market analysis to conduct convergence tests and obtain some preliminary conclusions. By using correlation measurement and cointegration analysis to measure the convergence of prices of six primary products such as coffee, cotton, wheat, lead, copper, and tin in the world market from 1930 to 1998, it is believed that from the overall perspective, there is no consistent convergence in the world market, but there is a convergence trend in a local time period, which is in a state of fluctuating convergence. This shows that in a sense, global integration in the whole range has not really started; and from the perspective of local regions, affected by the economic integration of Europe, North America and other regions, the price differences of primary farmers' products such as grain are very small.

[0026] 2. Research on food security assessment As globalization continues to deepen, international food trade has gradually become an important means to achieve global food security. International food prices are the main factor affecting international food trade, and international food prices are increasingly linked to food security. Therefore, the evaluation of international food prices is essentially an evaluation of international food security.

[0027] Based on the above-mentioned connotation of food security, a large amount of food security assessment work has been carried out at home and abroad, represented by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Maplecroft Ventures and the United States Department of Agriculture.

[0028] The standard for the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) to evaluate food security is the proportion of malnourished people in the total population of each country or region. If the proportion of malnourished people in a country or region exceeds 15%, the food in that country or region is considered to be insecure. The World Food Security Risk Index for 2010 and 2011 published by Maplecroft Risk Company mainly considers the adequacy and stability of food supply, and selects 12 indicators as evaluation indicators, including: grain production, per capita GDP, risk of extreme weather, crop quality, infrastructure for food distribution, conflict, and government efficiency. The results are divided into five levels: safe, low risk, medium risk, high risk and extreme risk.

[0029] Domestic related research mainly focuses on building a food security evaluation system to evaluate the food security situation. At present, most scholars need to use the indicator evaluation method, but based on different understandings of food security, two different indicator systems have been constructed. One is a quantitative security evaluation system, which mainly evaluates food production capacity and acquisition capacity. The indicators used mainly include food output, food output volatility, food prices, food stocks, and food insufficiency population. The other is a quality safety evaluation system, which mainly evaluates the degree of food security in a country or region from the degree of nutrition realization. It is more from a micro scale, from the perspective of families and individuals. Compared with the simple quantitative food security evaluation, it is more detailed and humane, and the analysis is mainly based on indicators of dietary structure and food quality.

[0030] However, the relevant technologies in food price analysis and food security assessment have their own shortcomings and cannot fully meet the needs of relevant food security analysis, and need to be further deepened.

[0031] First, in terms of food price analysis, generally speaking, there have been certain achievements in the study of the law of international food price changes at home and abroad, but there are also shortcomings, mainly reflected in: the research method is relatively single, mainly based on statistical descriptive analysis; the research content is not in-depth and comprehensive enough, and the analysis angle is relatively narrow and not comprehensive enough, focusing on one or two angles of international food prices. Existing studies also have problems such as insufficient representativeness of food prices (the single type of food crops and the inconsistent source of price selection lead to weak conclusions) and small research scale (mainly regional and national scales), which cannot further measure the market international food prices based on international food prices. Secondly, in terms of food security evaluation, although the indicator system for food security evaluation is currently the most widely used food security evaluation method, and the evaluation results reflect the food security situation most comprehensively, this evaluation method also has shortcomings, mainly in the selection of indicators, because some indicators are difficult to compare between countries and regions due to different standards between countries (for example, different countries often use different malnutrition standards). In addition, in the constructed food security evaluation system, it is often difficult to ensure the independence of indicators (for example, food prices and food production affect each other, and it is difficult to distinguish the impact of the two), which will affect the results of food security evaluation to a certain extent. Therefore, inaccuracies in international food prices and food security assessments make food security recommendations single or inaccurate.

[0032] Based on the above problems, the present invention proposes a method for determining food security recommendations, which determines international food prices based on the import and export trade volume and import and export trade volume of single crops of multiple countries, thereby improving the comprehensiveness and accuracy of international food prices; determines the temporal and spatial characteristics of international food prices, thereby ensuring the feasibility and comprehensiveness of international food price analysis; determines the international food price tolerance of each region based on international food prices and the national income of each region, thereby improving the accuracy and independence of the international food price tolerance of each region, and evaluates the changes in the international food price tolerance of different regions in the past to reflect the changes in the food security situation in different regions of the world; and at the same time, comprehensively determines food security recommendations based on spatial characteristics, temporal characteristics and international food price tolerance, thereby increasing the diversity of reference bases and improving the accuracy and feasibility of food security recommendations for each region.

[0033] Combine the following Figure 1 The food security recommendation determination method of the present invention is described. The present invention is applicable to food security recommendations for a single crop and / or comprehensive food security recommendations for multiple crops. The executor of the method can be an electronic device or a food security recommendation determination method set in the electronic device. The food security recommendation determination device can be implemented by software, hardware, or a combination of both.

[0034] Figure 1 is a flow chart of the method for determining food safety recommendations provided by the present invention, such as Figure 1 As shown, the method includes the following: Step 101: Determine the international grain price based on the import and export trade volume of a single crop and the import and export trade quantity of the single crop.

[0035] The import and export trade amount and the import and export trade quantity correspond to the same country.

[0036] It should be noted that the international food price can be the international food price of a single crop and / or the comprehensive international food price, among which the international food price of a single crop can be the international food price of soybeans, the international food price of corn or the international food price of rice, etc., and the comprehensive international food price can be the comprehensive international food price of wheat, corn, rice and soybeans.

[0037] Here, the method for determining the international food price can be any appropriate method. For example, the international food price can be obtained based on the mapping relationship between the import and export trade volume and import and export trade quantity of a single crop and the international food price; or the international food price can be obtained by substituting the import and export trade volume and import and export trade quantity of a single crop into the calculation formula; or the international food price can be obtained by inputting the import and export trade volume and import and export trade quantity of a single crop into a neural network model.

[0038] Here, the relevant import and export data of FAO import and export trade database can be used as the data source. For example, wheat is counted according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) database project code 15; rice is counted according to the database project code 1946, including paddy, rice, polished / brown rice, and broken rice; corn is counted according to the database project code 56; soybeans are counted according to the FAO database project code 236.

[0039] Step 102: Determine the temporal characteristics of the international grain price and the spatial characteristics of the international grain price.

[0040] The time feature is used to characterize the changes in the international food prices in different time periods, and the space feature is used to characterize the trend of market price unification.

[0041] Here, the temporal feature may include one or more of a trend feature, a periodic feature, and a volatility feature. The spatial feature may include two scales, global and intercontinental.

[0042] Step 103: Based on the international food prices and the national income of the target area, determine the international food price tolerance of the target area.

[0043] It should be noted that the affordability of international food prices reflects the purchasing power of food at a specific regional food price. The affordability of international food prices has two characteristics: first, it has time and space characteristics. The affordability of international food prices refers to the affordability of food prices at a specific time point and in a specific region; second, it has good comparability. The calculation of the affordability of international food prices is based on the entire global trade environment. International food trade is all traded in US dollars, and the trade environment faced by different countries and regions is basically the same.

[0044] Here, the method for determining the international food price tolerance can be any appropriate method, for example, determining the international food price tolerance based on the mapping relationship between the international food price, the national income of the target area and the international food price tolerance, or substituting the international food price and the national income of the target area into the calculation formula to obtain the international food price tolerance.

[0045] Generally, the ability to bear international food prices is mainly related to three factors: national income, international food prices and food import trade volume. Among them, the higher the national income, the lower the international food price and the smaller the food import trade volume, the higher the regional ability to bear international food prices; conversely, the lower the national income, the higher the international food price and the larger the food import trade volume, the lower the regional ability to bear international food prices.

[0046] Exemplary, international food price affordability The calculation is as follows: (1) Among them, N represents the national income of the target region (US dollars), Q represents the amount of grain imported by the target region (tons), and P represents the international grain price (US dollars / ton). In formula (1), the logarithm is taken to eliminate heteroscedasticity and reduce the order of magnitude.

[0047] Step 104: Determine food security recommendations based on the spatial characteristics, the temporal characteristics and the international food price tolerance.

[0048] Here, the food security recommendation may be obtained based on a pre-set mapping relationship among spatial characteristics, temporal characteristics and international food price tolerance; or it may be obtained using a food security recommendation model, which is not limited in the present invention.

[0049] Here, food security suggestions include but are not limited to suggestions on increasing national income, lowering food prices, increasing food prices, and increasing food production.

[0050] In an embodiment of the present invention, international food prices are determined based on the import and export trade volume and import and export trade volume of single crops of multiple countries, thereby improving the comprehensiveness and accuracy of international food prices; the temporal and spatial characteristics of international food prices are determined to ensure the feasibility and comprehensiveness of international food price analysis; the international food price tolerance of each region is determined based on international food prices and the national income of each region, thereby improving the accuracy and independence of the international food price tolerance of each region, and evaluating the changes in the international food price tolerance of different regions in the past to reflect the changes in the food security situation in different regions of the world; at the same time, food security recommendations are comprehensively determined based on spatial characteristics, temporal characteristics and international food price tolerance, thereby increasing the diversity of reference bases and improving the accuracy and feasibility of food security recommendations for each region.

[0051] In an embodiment of the present invention, the time characteristics include: trend characteristics, and determining the trend characteristics of the international food prices includes: trend separation of the time series of the international food prices to obtain the trend components of the time series; drawing a first trend change graph of the international food prices based on the trend components; fitting a second trend change graph of the international food prices based on at least two international food prices and the time points corresponding to the international food prices; determining the degree of fit between the first trend change graph and the second trend change graph; and obtaining the trend characteristics based on the degree of fit.

[0052] In one embodiment, the EVIEWS 6.0 software can be used to apply the "Hodrick-Prescott Filter" command (parameter λ=100) to perform trend separation on the time series of international food prices. Here, the trend component can be a steadily changing trend component, and the trend component of the international food price is mainly used for trend analysis.

[0053] Exemplarily, a time series of a set of international food prices is plotted according to trend components to obtain a first trend change graph.

[0054] Here, at least two international food prices and the corresponding time points of the international food prices can be understood as a set of time series of international food prices. The time series are fitted to obtain a curve, which is the second trend change chart.

[0055] Here, the degree of fit is used to characterize the degree of fit between the first trend change graph and the second trend change graph. The higher the degree of fit, the higher the degree of fit, and the more obvious the trend characteristics; conversely, the lower the degree of fit, the less obvious the trend characteristics. Generally, the value of the degree of fit (R²) is above 0.95, indicating that the degree of fit of the trend line equation is relatively ideal and has obvious trend characteristics.

[0056] Here, the fitting method includes but is not limited to the least square method, EXCEL, etc.

[0057] In the embodiment of the present invention, the trend component of the time series is used to deeply and comprehensively understand the trend of international food prices, which is conducive to further determining food security recommendations.

[0058] In an embodiment of the present invention, the spatial characteristics also include: periodic characteristics, determining the periodic characteristics of the international food price, including: when the time series is a stationary time series, converting the time series from the time domain to the frequency domain to obtain the frequency corresponding to the international food price; based on the frequency and the time series, obtaining the fitting function of the time series; based on the coefficients in the fitting function of the time series, determining the density corresponding to the frequency; based on the frequency and the density corresponding to the frequency, drawing the periodogram of the time series; based on the frequency and the density corresponding to the frequency, classifying the periodogram based on the duration of each period in the periodogram to obtain the periodic characteristics.

[0059] Here, the time series is a time series containing periodic components.

[0060] Here, the stationarity test is the premise of spectral analysis. We can use the "Unit Root Test" command of the EVIEWS software to perform a unit root test (i.e., stationarity test) on the time series of international food prices and their annual change rate data to determine whether the time series is a stationary time series.

[0061] It should be noted that non-stationary time series may generate false information during the spectral analysis process. Therefore, if a non-stationary time series is detected, there is no need to perform spectral analysis on the time series to ensure the reliability of the periodicity analysis.

[0062] Here, Fourier transform can be used to convert the time domain into frequency to obtain different frequency components.

[0063] For example, the fitting function of the time series is shown in the following formula (2): (2) in, is the frequency, is the time sequence number, is the number of periodic components, i.e. the number of main periods (fundamental waves) and their harmonics, , is the coefficient to be determined, is the standard error.

[0064] Further, the least squares method is used to estimate the unknown coefficients , .

[0065] For example, the frequency When given, it can be regarded as a multiple linear regression model, with unknown coefficients , The least squares estimate of is as follows: / N (3) (4) in, Undetermined coefficients , Undetermined coefficients , N represents the number of observations.

[0066] Further, according to the unknown coefficient , Calculate the density.

[0067] Exemplarily, the calculation formula of spectral density is shown in the following formula (5): (5) in, Indicates frequency The density at .

[0068] Here, the characteristics of the cycle can include three categories: short cycle, medium cycle and long cycle. Generally, the duration of the short cycle is 2-4 years, the duration of the medium cycle is 5-9 years, and the duration of the long cycle is 10 years or more.

[0069] In an embodiment of the present invention, by using spectral analysis to analyze the periodic characteristics of international food prices, the duration of the cycle is obtained, and the time variation characteristics of national food prices are better understood, which is conducive to further determining food security recommendations.

[0070] In an embodiment of the present invention, the spatial characteristics also include: volatility characteristics, determining the volatility characteristics of the international food prices, including: determining the fluctuation stage of the international food prices based on the fluctuation direction of the international food prices, the fluctuation duration of the international food prices and the fluctuation amplitude of the international food prices; the fluctuation stage includes an expansion stage and a contraction stage; determining the volatility characteristics based on the expansion stage, the contraction stage and the average fluctuation amplitude of different periods of the time series.

[0071] Here, the fluctuation direction can be understood as the rise or fall of international food prices. If it rises, the fluctuation phase is the expansion phase, and if it falls, the fluctuation phase is the contraction phase.

[0072] Here, fluctuation duration refers to the duration of the rise or fall in international food prices.

[0073] Here, the fluctuation range refers to the value of the increase or decrease in international food prices.

[0074] It should be noted that the volatility characteristics include the structural and trend characteristics of fluctuations. The trend characteristics of fluctuations are analyzed based on the expansion and contraction stages, and the structural characteristics are analyzed based on the average fluctuation amplitudes of different periods.

[0075] For example, the analysis of volatility characteristics can use mathematical statistics to statistically analyze the cyclical components of international food prices from the perspectives of the structure and trend of volatility: (1) Statistically analyze the duration and amplitude of international food prices in different fluctuation directions for different crops, including the expansion phase (increase) and contraction phase (decrease) of price fluctuations, and compare and analyze their statistical characteristics. If the expansion phase is more than the contraction phase, it means that international food prices are in an expansion phase for a long time, and prices have a long-term upward trend. On the contrary, if the expansion phase is less than the contraction phase, international food prices are in a contraction phase for a long time, and prices have a long-term downward trend. (2) Combined with the division of the trend change phases of international food prices, statistically analyze the average fluctuation amplitudes of different cycles, and analyze their long-term changes based on the fluctuation amplitude. The larger the fluctuation amplitude, the more unstable the international food prices are.

[0076] In an embodiment of the present invention, by analyzing the volatility of international food prices, the contraction and expansion stages of international food prices are obtained, and the trend of international food prices rising or falling is further identified. The stability of international food prices is identified by the fluctuation range, which is conducive to further determining food security recommendations.

[0077] In an embodiment of the present invention, determining the spatial characteristics of international food prices includes: determining the relative price between a first price of a single crop in a single country and a second price of the single crop in a benchmark country; determining the standard deviation corresponding to each of the relative prices; and determining the spatial characteristics of the international food prices based on a time series of the standard deviation.

[0078] Here, the method for determining the relative price may be any appropriate method, for example, determining the relative price based on the mapping relationship among the first price, the second price and the relative price; for another example, substituting the first price and the second price into a calculation formula to obtain the relative price, etc.

[0079] Here, the benchmark country can be determined based on the country's absolute importance and role in world food trade, such as China, the United States, etc. Here, the crop price data of the United States over the years can be used as the benchmark for the relative prices of this study.

[0080] For example, the relative price Q ij,k,t Calculate as follows formula (6): (6) in, represents the international food price of crop k in country i in year t, represents the international food price of crop k in benchmark country j in year t.

[0081] Here, standard deviation is used to measure the difference between different regions for different crop types.

[0082] For example, the standard deviation D k,t The calculation formula is as follows: D k,t =Var ( Q ij,k,t ) (7) in, Var Represents standard deviation.

[0083] Here, spatial characteristics may include price difference conditions between markets and / or market integration trends.

[0084] Furthermore, after obtaining the standard deviation, the "Unit Root Test" command of the EVIEWS software is used to perform an Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test (ADF) test on the standard deviation time series and analyze the results. If the result of the ADF test of the price difference time series is a stationary time series (p value is less than 0.05), it means that the regional price difference is convergent and the market is stable, that is, the price difference between the markets continues to exist stably. If the price difference time series is a non-stationary series (p value is greater than 0.05), it means that the regional price difference is divergent; if the standard deviation of the price difference gradually increases over time (the regression coefficient is greater than zero), it means that the fluctuation range of regional prices is expanding and the trend of market integration has weakened; on the contrary, if the standard deviation of the price difference gradually decreases over time (the regression coefficient is less than zero), it means that the fluctuation range of regional prices is shrinking and the trend of market integration has strengthened.

[0085] In an embodiment of the present invention, on the basis of establishing relative prices, standard deviation is used as a standard for measuring price differences, the evolution of the spatial difference time series of international food prices of four major food crops and the intercontinental difference characteristics are analyzed, the market integration characteristics of food trade at the global scale and the intercontinental scale are summarized, the characteristics of food trade integration at this stage and their causes are identified and analyzed, and specific ways to achieve food trade integration are preliminarily explored.

[0086] For example, determining the temporal and spatial characteristics of international food prices is actually aimed at analyzing international food prices. Based on the statistics of the changes in international food prices over the past fifty years, the price analysis method is used, and the EVIEWS software is used to separate the data information of the international food prices of major crops. The spectral analysis method and mathematical statistics are combined to analyze the temporal change characteristics of the international major food prices, and to deeply and comprehensively analyze the trend, periodicity and volatility characteristics of the international major food prices. On this basis, the "law of one price" of price convergence test is applied. On the basis of establishing relative prices, the standard deviation is used as the standard for measuring price differences. By analyzing the evolution of the time series of spatial differences in the international food prices of four major food crops and the characteristics of intercontinental differences, the characteristics of international food trade integration are summarized.

[0087] In an embodiment of the present invention, the international food price includes the international food price of a single crop, and the determining of the international food price based on the import and export trade volume of the single crop and the import and export trade volume of the single crop includes: determining the first price based on the import and export trade volume of the single crop and the import and export trade volume of the single crop; determining the international food price of the single crop based on the first price and a first weight corresponding to the first price; the first weight is used to characterize the proportion of the trade volume of a single crop of a single country in the international food trade volume of single crops.

[0088] Here, the first price is the international grain price of a single crop in a single country. The method for determining the first price can be any appropriate method, for example, inputting the import and export trade volume and import and export trade quantity of a single crop into a neural network model to obtain the first price; for example, obtaining the first price based on the mapping relationship between the import and export trade volume, import and export trade quantity and the first price of a single crop; for example, substituting the first price into a calculation formula to obtain the first price, etc.

[0089] For example, the first price The calculation of is as follows formula (8): (8) in, , Respectively represent the import and export trade volume of grain of a single crop in a single country (in US dollars), , Respectively represent the grain import and export trade volume (in tons) of a single crop in a single country.

[0090] Here, the method for determining the international food price of a single crop can be any appropriate method, such as a neural network model, a mapping relationship, a calculation formula, etc.

[0091] For example, international food prices for individual crops The calculation of is as follows formula (9): (9) in, represents the international food price of a single crop in a single country (US$ / ton), It represents the first weight, i.e. the proportion of the trade volume of a single crop in a single country in the international food trade volume of a single crop (%), and n represents the number of countries.

[0092] In an embodiment of the present invention, the first price is effectively determined by the import and export trade amount of a single crop and the import and export trade quantity of a single crop, and the international grain price of a single crop is comprehensively determined based on the first price and the first weight. In this way, through the effective definition and calculation logic of international grain prices, the basic situation of the current international grain trade can be fully and accurately reflected, providing a high-quality data basis for subsequent price calculations.

[0093] In an embodiment of the present invention, the international food price is a comprehensive international food price, which is determined based on the import and export trade volume of multiple crops and the import and export trade volume of the multiple crops, including: determining the international food price of a single crop based on the import and export trade volume of the single crop and the import and export trade volume of the single crop; determining the comprehensive international food price based on the international food price of the single crop and a second weight corresponding to the international food price of the single crop, wherein the second weight is used to characterize the proportion of the trade volume of a single crop in the global international food trade volume.

[0094] Here, the international food price of a single crop can be determined by referring to the above formulas (8) and (9).

[0095] Here, the method for determining the comprehensive international food price can be any appropriate method, for example, the international food price of a single crop and the second weight are input into the neural network model to obtain the comprehensive international food price; for another example, the comprehensive international food price is obtained based on the mapping relationship between the international food price of a single crop, the second weight and the comprehensive international food price; for another example, the international food price of a single crop and the second weight are substituted into the calculation formula to obtain the comprehensive international food price, etc.

[0096] For example, the international food price index The calculation of is as follows formula (10): (10) in, Indicates the proportion of the trade volume of a single crop in the global international food trade volume (%), Represents the category of global international grain trade.

[0097] In the embodiment of the present invention, the international grain price of a single crop is effectively determined by the import and export trade amount of a single crop and the import and export trade quantity of a single crop, and the comprehensive international grain price is accurately determined based on the international grain price of a single crop and the corresponding second weight. In this way, through the effective definition and calculation logic of international grain prices, the basic situation of the current international grain trade can be fully and accurately reflected, providing a high-quality data basis for subsequent price calculations.

[0098] In the embodiment of the present invention, determining food security recommendations based on the spatial characteristics, the temporal characteristics, and the international food price tolerance includes: Determine the food security risk based on the tolerance of international food prices; The food security recommendation is determined based on the spatial characteristics, the temporal characteristics and the food security risks.

[0099] Here, food security risk can be obtained based on the pre-set mapping relationship between international food price tolerance and food security risk; it can also be obtained based on a food security risk model.

[0100] It should be noted that food security risks can be determined by the absolute value of international food price tolerance; it can also be determined by the trend of international food price tolerance; it can also be determined by the comparative value of international food price tolerance.

[0101] For example, a. Absolute value of international food price tolerance. The value of national food price tolerance directly reflects the overall tolerance of the corresponding region to international food prices. The higher the value, the higher the tolerance of the region to food price fluctuations, and the lower the risk of food security. On the contrary, the lower the tolerance of the region to food price fluctuations, the higher the risk of food security. b. Trend of international food price tolerance. The trend of international food price tolerance establishes the time change curve of international food price tolerance in each region. According to the positive and negative coefficients of the regression equation, the changing trend of international food price tolerance in the region can be judged and analyzed. If the regression coefficient is positive, it means that the food price tolerance of the region is gradually increasing, and the risk of food security is getting lower and lower; on the contrary, if the regression coefficient is negative, the food price tolerance of the region is gradually weakening, and the risk of food security is getting higher and higher. c. Comparative value of international food price tolerance. Take the "world international food price tolerance value" as the standard value, and compare the international food price tolerance values ​​of other continents with it. If the region's international food price tolerance value is higher than the "world international food price tolerance value", it means that the region's food price tolerance value is relatively strong, and the risk of food security is relatively low; conversely, if the region's international food price tolerance value is lower than the "world international food price tolerance value", it means that the region's food price tolerance value is relatively weak, and the risk of food security is relatively high.

[0102] In an embodiment of the present invention, an international food price tolerance model based on international food prices, national income and food trade is established to analyze the tolerance of the world and different regions to international food prices, evaluate the food security risks of the world as a whole and different regions, further understand the regional international food situation more deeply based on temporal characteristics, spatial characteristics and food security risks, improve the diversity of reference bases, and thus put forward accurate and efficient food security recommendations.

[0103] The following are application scenarios of the method for determining food safety recommendations provided by the present invention.

[0104] International food trade involves many types of food. The international food prices calculated based on different types of food vary greatly. In this application scenario, from the perspective of international food trade, based on a unified data source, we select the prices of four major international food trade types: wheat, corn, rice, and soybeans. The trade volume of these four food crops accounts for more than 90% of the world's total food trade.

[0105] Example 1 Calculate the corresponding single-crop international food prices for wheat, corn, rice and soybeans; determine the temporal characteristics of single-crop international food prices (trend analysis, cycle analysis, fluctuation analysis); determine the spatial characteristics of single-crop international prices (global scale analysis, intercontinental scale analysis); determine the single-crop food price tolerance of single-crop international prices based on international food prices and the national income of the target area; determine food security recommendations based on the temporal characteristics, spatial characteristics and single-crop food price tolerance.

[0106] Example 2 Calculate the comprehensive international food prices of wheat, corn, rice and soybeans; determine the temporal characteristics of the comprehensive international food prices (trend analysis, cycle analysis, fluctuation analysis); determine the spatial characteristics of the comprehensive international food prices (global scale analysis, intercontinental scale analysis); determine the comprehensive food price tolerance of the comprehensive international food prices based on the international food prices and the national income of the target area; determine food security recommendations based on the temporal characteristics, spatial characteristics and comprehensive food price tolerance.

[0107] In this application scenario, taking soybeans, corn, wheat and rice as examples, we understand the characteristics of international food prices from the perspective of food security, analyze the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of international food prices in the past, and establish a food price tolerance model to analyze and evaluate the food price tolerance status in different regions of the world, providing new perspectives and references for research related to food security.

[0108] Food security is a major issue facing mankind in the future. The present invention closely follows the trend of globalization and establishes international food prices based on world food trade. By analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of international food prices of four crops, namely corn, soybeans, rice and wheat, the evolution characteristics of food prices in different regions are analyzed. At the same time, a food price tolerance evaluation model is constructed to calculate the tolerance of international food prices in different regions, evaluate the food price risks in different regions, analyze the international food trade market from 1961 to 2009, conduct an in-depth analysis of relevant international food prices and international food security, and obtain the following conclusions: 1. Calculation and analysis of the time characteristics of international food prices The conclusions on the time characteristics of international grain prices mainly include three aspects: trend, cycle and volatility: (1) Trend characteristics: The commodity attributes of international food prices determine their long-term trend. Affected by the continuous improvement of world food productivity and the long-term depreciation trend of the US dollar, the trend is obvious and international food prices show an upward trend over time.

[0109] (2) Cyclical characteristics: Under the combined influence of different factors and different cycles, international food price fluctuations have shown multi-cyclical characteristics, with long cycles, medium cycles and short cycles coexisting. There are relatively obvious 16-year long cycles and 5-7-year medium cycles, while the short cycle more reflects the volatility characteristics of international food prices.

[0110] (3) Volatility characteristics: The duration of contraction and expansion of international food prices is basically the same, indicating that international food prices have not deviated from the basic market rules; at the same time, with the continuous strengthening of global integration and food financialization, the instability of international food prices has become increasingly stronger. The cyclical nature of international food prices has gradually manifested itself as short-term fluctuations, and the fluctuation range has also become larger and larger. 2. Calculation and analysis of spatial characteristics of international food prices (1) The continued existence of differences in international grain prices for the four grain crops indicates that the degree of international grain marketization is still relatively low and that there is a phenomenon of “anti-globalization” in global grain trade.

[0111] (2) The price difference between wheat and rice is smaller than that between soybeans and corn. The market competition between wheat and rice is more sufficient than that between soybeans and corn, which is more conducive to grain trade. This proves that the size of the price difference is closely related to the degree of market competition.

[0112] (3) The overall layout of the price differences in world grain trade is characterized by overall stability and local divergence, that is, the grain price differences in most regions are relatively stable, while there is still a trend of segmentation in some regional markets.

[0113] (4) International food prices have obvious regional characteristics and are related to the degree of regional integration. The degree of marketization of food trade in North America and Europe is significantly higher than that in other regions.

[0114] 3. Calculation and analysis of international food price affordability and food security (1) The improvement in the world’s overall income level and food production capacity has effectively increased the world’s overall tolerance for food prices.

[0115] (2) There is a large gap in the tolerance of food prices in different regions. Developed countries and regions such as North America, Europe and Oceania have a strong tolerance for international food prices, while regions such as Africa have a weaker tolerance for food prices. The risk of food security is relatively high. They need to develop their national economies and improve their food production capacity in order to improve their tolerance for food prices.

[0116] (3) Affected by globalization, the grain production structure is gradually strengthening. Grain exporting regions, relying on their dominant position in grain trade, are gradually increasing their influence on international grain trade and are more resilient to grain prices. Grain importing regions, however, are in a subordinate position in grain trade and are greatly affected by grain prices. They are less resilient to grain prices and face higher food security risks.

[0117] The food safety advice determining device provided by the present invention is described below. The food safety advice determining device described below and the food safety advice determining method described above can be referenced to each other.

[0118] Figure 2 is a schematic diagram of the structure of the food safety recommendation determination device provided by the present invention, such as Figure 2 As shown, the food safety recommendation determining device 200 includes: A first determination module 201 is used to determine the international grain price based on the import and export trade volume of a single crop and the import and export trade volume of the single crop; the import and export trade volume and the import and export trade volume correspond to the same country; The second determination module 202 is used to determine the time characteristics of the international food price and the spatial characteristics of the international food price; the time characteristics are used to characterize the changes of the international food price in different time periods, and the spatial characteristics are used to characterize the trend of market price unification; A third determination module 203 is used to determine the international food price tolerance of the target area based on the international food price and the national income of the target area; The fourth determination module 204 is used to determine food security recommendations based on the spatial characteristics, the temporal characteristics and the international food price tolerance.

[0119] In some embodiments, the time characteristics include: trend characteristics, and the second determination module 202 is also specifically used to: perform trend separation on the time series of the international food price to obtain the trend component of the time series; based on the trend component, draw a first trend change chart of the international food price; based on at least two international food prices and the time points corresponding to the international food prices, fit the second trend change chart of the international food price; determine the degree of fit between the first trend change chart and the second trend change chart; based on the degree of fit, obtain the trend characteristics.

[0120] In some embodiments, the time characteristics include: periodic characteristics, and the second determination module 202 is also specifically used to: when the time series is a stationary time series, convert the time series from the time domain to the frequency domain to obtain the frequency corresponding to the international food price; based on the frequency and the time series, obtain the fitting function of the time series; based on the coefficients in the fitting function of the time series, determine the density corresponding to the frequency; based on the frequency and the density corresponding to the frequency, draw the periodogram of the time series; based on the frequency and the density corresponding to the frequency, classify the periodogram based on the duration of each period in the periodogram to obtain the periodic characteristics.

[0121] In some embodiments, the time characteristics include: volatility characteristics, and the second determination module 202 is further specifically used to: determine the fluctuation stage of the international food price based on the fluctuation direction of the international food price, the fluctuation duration of the international food price and the fluctuation amplitude of the international food price; the fluctuation stage includes an expansion stage and a contraction stage; determine the volatility characteristics based on the expansion stage, the contraction stage and the average fluctuation amplitude of different periods of the time series.

[0122] In some embodiments, the second determination module 202 is further specifically used to: determine the relative price between the first price and the second price based on the first price of a single crop in a single country and the second price of the single crop in a benchmark country; determine the standard deviation corresponding to each of the relative prices; and determine the spatial characteristics of the international food prices based on the time series of the standard deviation.

[0123] In some embodiments, the international food price includes the international food price of a single crop, and the first determination module 201 is further specifically used to: determine the first price based on the import and export trade volume of the single crop and the import and export trade quantity of the single crop; determine the international food price of the single crop based on the first price and a first weight corresponding to the first price; the first weight is used to characterize the proportion of the trade volume of a single crop of a single country in the international food trade volume of a single crop.

[0124] In some embodiments, the international food price is a comprehensive international food price, and the first determination module 201 is further specifically used to: determine the international food price of a single crop based on the import and export trade volume of the single crop and the import and export trade volume of the single crop; determine the comprehensive international food price based on the international food price of the single crop and a second weight corresponding to the international food price of the single crop, wherein the second weight is used to characterize the proportion of the trade volume of a single crop in the global international food trade volume.

[0125] In some embodiments, the fourth determination module 204 is further specifically used to: determine the food security risk based on the international food price tolerance; and determine the food security recommendation based on the spatial characteristics, the temporal characteristics and the food security risk.

[0126] Figure 3 is a schematic diagram of the structure of the electronic device provided by the present invention, such as Figure 3 As shown, the electronic device may include: a processor 310, a communication interface 320, a memory 330 and a communication bus 340, wherein the processor 310, the communication interface 320 and the memory 330 communicate with each other through the communication bus 340. The processor 310 may call the logic instructions in the memory 330 to execute the method for determining food security recommendations, the method comprising: determining the international food price based on the import and export trade volume of a single crop and the import and export trade quantity of the single crop; the import and export trade volume and the import and export trade quantity correspond to the same country; determining the time characteristics of the international food price and the spatial characteristics of the international food price; the time characteristics are used to characterize the changes of the international food price in different time periods, and the spatial characteristics are used to characterize the trend of market price unification; determining the international food price tolerance corresponding to the target area based on the international food price and the national income of the target area; and determining food security recommendations based on the spatial characteristics, the time characteristics and the international food price tolerance.

[0127] In addition, the logic instructions in the above-mentioned memory 330 can be implemented in the form of a software functional unit and can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium when it is sold or used as an independent product. Based on such an understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art or the part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product, and the computer software product is stored in a storage medium, including a number of instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes: U disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), disk or optical disk, etc. Various media that can store program codes.

[0128] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a computer program product, which includes a computer program, and the computer program can be stored on a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the computer can execute the food security recommendation determination method provided by the above-mentioned methods, the method including: determining the international food price based on the import and export trade volume of a single crop and the import and export trade quantity of the single crop; the import and export trade volume and the import and export trade quantity correspond to the same country; determining the time characteristics of the international food price and the spatial characteristics of the international food price; the time characteristics are used to characterize the changes in the international food price in different time periods, and the spatial characteristics are used to characterize the trend of market price unification; based on the international food price and the national income of the target area, determining the international food price tolerance corresponding to the target area; determining food security recommendations based on the spatial characteristics, the time characteristics and the international food price tolerance.

[0129] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, is implemented to execute the food security recommendation determination method provided by the above-mentioned methods, the method comprising: determining the international food price based on the import and export trade volume of a single crop and the import and export trade quantity of the single crop; the import and export trade volume and the import and export trade quantity correspond to the same country; determining the time characteristics of the international food price and the spatial characteristics of the international food price; the time characteristics are used to characterize the changes in the international food price in different time periods, and the spatial characteristics are used to characterize the trend of market price unification; based on the international food price and the national income of the target area, determining the international food price tolerance corresponding to the target area; determining food security recommendations based on the spatial characteristics, the time characteristics and the international food price tolerance.

[0130] The device embodiments described above are merely illustrative, wherein the units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components displayed as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place, or they may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the scheme of this embodiment. Ordinary technicians in this field can understand and implement it without paying creative labor.

[0131] Through the description of the above implementation methods, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that each implementation method can be implemented by means of software plus a necessary general hardware platform, and of course, can also be implemented by hardware. Based on this understanding, the above technical solution is essentially or the part that contributes to the prior art can be embodied in the form of a software product, and the computer software product can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as ROM / RAM, a disk, an optical disk, etc., including a number of instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to execute the methods described in each embodiment or some parts of the embodiments.

[0132] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for determining food security recommendations, characterized in that: include: Determining international food prices based on the import and export trade value of a single crop and the import and export trade quantity of the single crop; the import and export trade value and the import and export trade quantity correspond to the same country; Determine the time characteristics of the international food price and the spatial characteristics of the international food price; the time characteristics are used to characterize the changes of the international food price in different time periods, and the spatial characteristics are used to characterize the trend of market price unification; Determining the international food price tolerance of the target area based on the international food price and the national income of the target area; Food security recommendations are determined based on the spatial characteristics, the temporal characteristics and the international food price affordability.

2. The method for determining food security recommendations according to claim 1, characterized in that: The time characteristics include: trend characteristics, and the trend characteristics of the international food prices are determined to include: Performing trend separation on the time series of the international food price to obtain the trend component of the time series; Based on the trend component, drawing a first trend change graph of the international food price; Fitting a second trend change graph of the international food price based on at least two international food prices and time points corresponding to the international food prices; Determining a degree of fit between the first trend change graph and the second trend change graph; Based on the degree of fit, the trend feature is obtained.

3. The method for determining food safety recommendations according to claim 2, characterized in that: The spatial characteristics also include: periodic characteristics, and the periodic characteristics of the international food prices are determined, including: In the case where the time series is a stationary time series, converting the time series from the time domain to the frequency domain to obtain the frequency corresponding to the international food price; Based on the frequency and the time series, obtaining a fitting function of the time series; Determining the density corresponding to the frequency based on the coefficients in the fitting function of the time series; Drawing a periodogram of the time series based on the frequencies and the densities corresponding to the frequencies; The periodogram is classified based on the duration of each period in the periodogram to obtain the periodic feature.

4. The method for determining food safety recommendations according to claim 3, characterized in that: The spatial characteristics also include: volatility characteristics, and the volatility characteristics of the international food prices are determined, including: Determining the fluctuation stage of the international food price based on the fluctuation direction of the international food price, the fluctuation duration of the international food price and the fluctuation amplitude of the international food price; the fluctuation stage includes an expansion stage and a contraction stage; The volatility characteristics are determined based on the expansion phase, the contraction phase and the average fluctuation amplitudes of different periods of the time series.

5. The method for determining food security recommendations according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that: The spatial characteristics of determining international food prices include: determining a relative price between a first price of a single crop in a single country and a second price of the single crop in a benchmark country; determining a standard deviation corresponding to each of the relative prices; Based on the time series of the standard deviation, the spatial characteristics of the international food price are determined.

6. The method for determining food safety recommendations according to claim 5, characterized in that: The international food prices include the international food prices of individual crops. The international food prices are determined based on the import and export trade volume of individual crops and the import and export trade volume of individual crops, including: Determining the first price based on the import and export trade volume of the single crop and the import and export trade quantity of the single crop; The international food price of the single crop is determined based on the first price and a first weight corresponding to the first price; the first weight is used to characterize the proportion of the trade volume of the single crop of a single country in the international food trade volume of the single crop.

7. The method for determining food safety recommendations according to claim 1, characterized in that: The international grain price is a comprehensive international grain price, which is determined based on the import and export trade volume of various crops and the import and export trade volume of the various crops, and includes: Determine the international food price of a single crop based on the import and export trade volume of the single crop and the import and export trade volume of the single crop; The comprehensive international grain price is determined based on the international grain price of the single crop and a second weight corresponding to the international grain price of the single crop, wherein the second weight is used to characterize the proportion of the trade volume of the single crop in the global international grain trade volume.

8. The method for determining food safety recommendations according to claim 1, characterized in that: The food security recommendations are determined based on the spatial characteristics, the temporal characteristics and the international food price tolerance, including: Determine the food security risk based on the tolerance of international food prices; The food security recommendations are determined based on the spatial characteristics, the temporal characteristics and the food security risks.

9. A food safety recommendation determination device, characterized in that: include: A first determination module is used to determine the international food price based on the import and export trade volume of a single crop and the import and export trade quantity of the single crop; the import and export trade volume and the import and export trade quantity correspond to the same country; The second determination module is used to determine the time characteristics of the international food price and the spatial characteristics of the international food price; the time characteristics are used to characterize the changes of the international food price in different time periods, and the spatial characteristics are used to characterize the trend of market price unification; A third determination module is used to determine the international food price tolerance of the target area based on the international food price and the national income of the target area; The fourth determination module is used to determine food security recommendations based on the spatial characteristics, the temporal characteristics and the international food price tolerance.

10. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein: When the processor executes the computer program, the food safety recommendation determination method according to any one of claims 1 to 8 is implemented.

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