Green certificate and carbon market mechanism collaboration method based on system dynamics modeling

Abstract

The invention discloses a green certificate and carbon market mechanism cooperation method based on system dynamics modeling. The method comprises the following steps: constructing a green certificate price change model by using a green certificate predicted sales volume, a green certificate predicted purchase volume and renewable energy power generation; taking the renewable energy power generation amount in the green evidence price change model as a dependent variable, and constructing an electric power price change model by using the electric power demand and the thermal power generation amount; and constructing a carbon quota price change model by taking the thermal power generation amount in the power price change model as a dependent variable and utilizing the carbon quota predicted sales amount and the carbon quota predicted purchase amount. After the method is implemented, the coupling causal feedback relation of the three markets on the microscopic level can be systematically analyzed, and a green evidence, electricity price and carbon quota price change model is constructed. Through a price forming mechanism, investment decisions of market participants and a strategy of offsetting carbon emission by green electricity and green certificates, cooperation of a green certificate market, an electricity market and a carbon market is realized, and a coupling effect of carbon emission transaction and green certificates under green certificate new politics is discussed so as to promote transformation of an energy system and realization of a carbon emission reduction target.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of carbon emission technology, and in particular to a green certificate and carbon market mechanism coordination method based on system dynamics modeling. Background Art

[0002] In order to accelerate the low-carbon transformation of the energy industry, the scope of issuance of green certificates will be expanded to cover all renewable energy electricity and confirmed as the only certificate, marking a new stage in China's green certificate system.

[0003] In terms of market operation, they are relatively independent, lack effective connection and coordination, and have not yet formed a joint force on the road to dual carbon. It is particularly important to study the interaction between these markets and their policy coherence. Existing research mainly focuses on single markets such as electricity, green certificates and carbon emission trading, and lacks in-depth discussion on the coupling mechanism of multiple markets. In addition, there is a lack of discussion on key issues such as changes in the green certificate market mechanism, the impact of carbon market expansion, and the connection mechanism between green certificates and carbon markets. Summary of the invention

[0004] In response to the above problems, a method for coordinating green certificate and carbon market mechanisms based on system dynamics modeling is proposed. By systematically analyzing the mutually coupled causal feedback relationship of the three markets at the micro level, a green certificate, electricity price change model and a carbon quota price change model are constructed. Then, the price formation mechanism and investment decision-making are used to achieve mutual coordination among the three markets, and the coupling effect of carbon emission trading and tradable green certificates under the new green certificate policy is explored to achieve the goal of energy system transformation and carbon emission reduction.

[0005] A collaborative approach to green certificates and carbon market mechanisms based on system dynamics modeling, including:

[0006] Step 100: construct a green certificate price change model using the estimated green certificate sales volume, the estimated green certificate purchase volume, and the renewable energy power generation;

[0007] Step 200: Taking the renewable energy power generation in the green certificate price change model as the dependent variable and using the power demand and thermal power generation to construct a power price change model;

[0008] Step 300: Taking the thermal power generation in the electricity price change model as the dependent variable and using the expected carbon quota sales volume and the expected carbon quota purchase volume to construct a carbon quota price change model;

[0009] Step 400: By constructing a price change model for green certificates, electricity, and carbon quotas and utilizing a price formation mechanism, the mutual coordination among the electricity market, green certificate market, and carbon market can be achieved.

[0010] In conjunction with the green certificate and carbon market mechanism coordination method based on system dynamics modeling described in the present invention, in a first possible implementation, step 100 includes:

[0011] Step 110, using the green certificate price change model to calculate the green certificate price change, and using the green certificate price change and the green certificate initial price to calculate the green certificate price cumulative change;

[0012] Step 120, calculating the real-time price of the green certificate using the cumulative change in the green certificate price, the upper limit of the green certificate price, and the lower limit of the green certificate price;

[0013] Step 130, using the renewable energy power consumption responsibility parameter and the green electricity green certificate trading volume to calculate the number of green certificates required to meet the consumption responsibility weight;

[0014] Step 140: Calculate the number of green certificates owned by the buyer using the green certificate transaction volume, the number of green certificates required for the liability weight, and the number of green certificates expired by the buyer.

[0015] In combination with the first possible implementation manner of the present invention, in a second possible implementation manner, step 100 further includes:

[0016] Step 150: Calculate the expected purchase quantity of green certificates using the quantity of green certificates required for the responsibility weight, the quantity of green certificates owned by the buyer, and the rate of change of green certificate prices;

[0017] Step 160: Calculate the number of green certificates owned by the seller based on the number of green certificates initially held by the seller, the number of green certificates separated from electricity, the trading volume of green certificates, and the number of green certificates expired by the seller;

[0018] Step 170: Calculate the expected sales volume of green certificates using the real-time price of green certificates, the initial price of green certificates and the number of green certificates owned by the seller.

[0019] In combination with the second possible implementation manner of the present invention, in a third possible implementation manner, step 100 further includes:

[0020] Step 180, using the estimated purchase volume of green certificates and the estimated sales volume of green certificates to calculate the excess demand for green certificates;

[0021] Step 190: Construct a green certificate price change model using the excess demand for green certificates and the excess demand threshold for green certificates.

[0022] In combination with the green certificate and carbon market mechanism coordination method based on system dynamics modeling described in the present invention, in a fourth possible implementation, step 200 includes:

[0023] Step 210: Calculate the power price change using the power price change model and calculate the real-time power price using the power price change and the benchmark on-grid power price;

[0024] Step 220: Calculate the real-time power demand using the power demand, the real-time power price, and the benchmark on-grid power price.

[0025] In combination with the fourth possible implementation manner of the present invention, in a fifth possible implementation manner, step 200 further includes:

[0026] Step 230, calculating the newly added installed capacity of renewable energy using the cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy and the renewable energy induced investment coefficient;

[0027] Step 240: Calculate the cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy using the newly added installed capacity of renewable energy, the initial installed capacity of renewable energy, and the dismantled installed capacity of renewable energy.

[0028] In combination with the fifth possible implementation manner of the present invention, in a sixth possible implementation manner, step 200 further includes:

[0029] Step 250, calculating the renewable energy power generation using the monthly average utilization hours of the renewable energy and the cumulative installed capacity of the renewable energy;

[0030] Step 260, calculating the thermal power generation using the average monthly utilization hours of thermal power generation and the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power generation;

[0031] Step 270, calculating the total power supply using renewable energy power generation and thermal power generation;

[0032] Step 280: construct an electricity price change model using the total electricity supply, the real-time electricity demand and the electricity price adjustment time.

[0033] In combination with the green certificate and carbon market mechanism coordination method based on system dynamics modeling described in the present invention, in a seventh possible implementation, step 300 includes:

[0034] Step 310: Calculate the carbon quota price change using the carbon quota price change model;

[0035] Step 320: Calculate the carbon quota price using the carbon quota price change and the carbon quota base price.

[0036] In combination with the seventh possible implementation manner of the present invention, in an eighth possible implementation manner, step 300 further includes:

[0037] Step 330: Calculate the carbon quota demand using the thermal power generation, the carbon emissions per unit of thermal power generation, and the carbon emissions of other high-emission industries under the expansion of the carbon market;

[0038] Step 340: Calculate the buyer's carbon quota based on the buyer's initial carbon quota holdings, carbon quota trading volume, and carbon quota demand;

[0039] Step 350: Calculate the expected purchase amount of carbon quotas using the carbon quota demand, the carbon quotas owned by the buyer, the carbon quota benchmark price, and the carbon quota price.

[0040] In combination with the eighth possible implementation manner of the present invention, in a ninth possible implementation manner, step 300 further includes:

[0041] Step 360: Calculate the carbon quota owned by the seller using the seller's initial carbon quota, the allocated carbon quota, and the carbon quota trading volume;

[0042] Step 370: Calculate the expected sales volume of carbon quotas using the seller's initial carbon quota holdings, the carbon quota benchmark price, and the carbon quota price;

[0043] Step 380: Calculate excess demand for carbon quotas using the estimated sales volume of carbon quotas and the estimated purchase volume of carbon quotas;

[0044] Step 390: Construct a carbon quota price change model using excess carbon quota demand and a specified threshold.

[0045] The green certificate and carbon market mechanism coordination method based on system dynamics modeling described in the present invention is implemented. By systematically analyzing the mutually coupled causal feedback relationship of the three markets at the micro level, a green certificate, electricity price change model and a carbon quota price change model are constructed. Then, the price formation mechanism is used to achieve mutual coordination among the three markets, and the coupling effect of carbon emission trading and tradable green certificates under the new green certificate policy is explored to achieve the goal of energy system transformation and carbon emission reduction. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0046] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work.

[0047] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of the cause-effect loop of the green certificate market in the present invention;

[0048] Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of the causal loop of the power market in the present invention;

[0049] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the carbon market causal loop in the present invention;

[0050] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the causal loop of the green certificate market, electricity market, and carbon market in the present invention;

[0051] Figure 5It is a first flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention;

[0052] Figure 6 It is a second flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention;

[0053] Figure 7 It is a third flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention;

[0054] Figure 8 It is a fourth flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention;

[0055] Fig. 9 It is a fifth flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention;

[0056] Fig.10 It is a sixth flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention;

[0057] Fig.11 The seventh flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention;

[0058] Fig.12 The eighth flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention;

[0059] Fig.13 The ninth flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention;

[0060] Fig.14 This is the tenth flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0061] The following will be combined with the accompanying drawings in the invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present invention, other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are all within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0062] Unless otherwise defined, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as those commonly understood by those skilled in the art of the present invention. The terms used herein in the specification of the present invention are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit the present invention. The term "and / or" used herein includes any and all combinations of one or more related listed items.

[0063] It should be noted that when an element is referred to as being "fixed to" or "disposed on" another element, it can be directly on the other element or indirectly on the other element. When an element is referred to as being "connected to" another element, it can be directly connected to the other element or indirectly connected to the other element.

[0064] It should be understood that the orientation or position relationship indicated by terms such as "length", "width", "up", "down", "front", "back", "left", "right", "vertical", "horizontal", "top", "bottom", "inside" and "outside" are based on the orientation or position relationship shown in the drawings, and are only for the convenience of describing the present application and simplifying the description, and do not indicate or imply that the device or element referred to must have a specific orientation, be constructed and operated in a specific orientation, and therefore should not be understood as a limitation on the present application.

[0065] In addition, the terms "first" and "second" are used for descriptive purposes only and should not be understood as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly indicating the number of the indicated technical features. Thus, a feature defined as "first" or "second" may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of the features. In the description of this application, the meaning of "plurality" is two or more, unless otherwise clearly and specifically defined.

[0066] The green certificate market, carbon emission trading market and electricity market have played a synergistic role in promoting the transformation of energy structure and the development of low-carbon technology. However, these markets are still relatively independent in operation, lack effective connection and coordination with each other, and fail to form a joint force in the process of achieving the "dual carbon" goals. Therefore, it is crucial to study the interaction between these markets and their policy coherence. At the same time, there is a lack of in-depth discussion on the multi-market coupling mechanism, especially on key issues such as changes in the green certificate market mechanism, expansion of the carbon market, and the connection mechanism between the green certificate and the carbon market. There are still significant research gaps.

[0067] To address the above issues, a collaborative approach for green certificates and carbon market mechanisms based on system dynamics modeling is proposed.

[0068] like Figure 5 , Figure 5The first flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention; a green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling, comprising:

[0069] Step 100: Use the estimated sales volume of green certificates, the estimated purchase volume of green certificates and the amount of electricity generated by renewable energy to build a green certificate price change model. By building a green certificate price change model, an electricity price change model and a carbon quota price change model, these models are used to analyze and grasp the microscopic causal relationship of the three markets, and then use the causal relationship to make the three markets work together to achieve the purpose of carbon emission targets.

[0070] like Figure 1 , Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of the causal loop of the green certificate market in the present invention. When renewable energy power generation companies increase their power generation, the regulatory authorities will issue more green certificates to them. As sellers of green certificates, these companies are expected to sell more green certificates to demand parties such as electricity users, thereby increasing the expected sales volume. Since the expected purchase volume of green certificates is relatively stable, excess demand will decrease accordingly. Excess demand indicates a change in the supply and demand relationship. A reduction in excess demand means that the shortage of green certificates has been alleviated, resulting in a drop in the price of green certificates. A drop in prices will compress the profit margins of renewable energy power generation companies, suppress their enthusiasm for investing in renewable energy installations, and ultimately lead to a reduction in power generation, forming a balance in the feedback loop.

[0071] In another feedback loop, when renewable energy power generators increase their power generation, they will receive more green certificates. Power users hold more green certificates through green certificate transactions, which leads to a decrease in the demand for green certificates in the next period, that is, the expected purchase volume will decrease, resulting in a decrease in excess demand, a decrease in green certificate prices, and market participants reducing investment in new energy installations, which ultimately leads to a decrease in renewable energy power generation and a local equilibrium.

[0072] Preferably, if Figure 6 , Figure 6 The second flow diagram of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention; step 100 includes: step 110, using the green certificate price change model to calculate the green certificate price change, and using the green certificate price change and the green certificate initial price to calculate the green certificate price cumulative change, such as formula (1) and formula (2):

[0073]

[0074] P′ TGC =P TGC,0 +∫ΔP TGC ·dt (2)

[0075] Among them, P TGC,0 is the initial price of the green certificate, PTGC Green is the price when it is confirmed. P TGC and Respectively represent the upper and lower limits of the green certificate price, ΔP TGC is the green certificate price change model, which is used to calculate the green certificate price change, P′ TGC is the cumulative change in green certificate price, ε is the green certificate demand threshold, TGC excess The excess demand for green certificates.

[0076] Step 120, calculate the real-time price of the green certificate using the cumulative change in the green certificate price, the upper limit of the green certificate price, and the lower limit of the green certificate price.

[0077]

[0078] Step 130: Calculate the number of green certificates required to meet the consumption responsibility weight using the renewable energy power consumption responsibility parameter and the green electricity green certificate trading volume, as shown in equations (4) and (5).

[0079] TGC RPS =max(0,Q resp -RE trading ) (4),

[0080] Q resp =D ele ×prop RPS (5)

[0081] Among them, TGC RPS Refers to the number of green certificates required to meet the responsibility weight of renewable energy power consumption, Q resp The parameter of the renewable energy power consumption responsibility undertaken by the power user, prop RPS is the proportion of electricity consumed from renewable energy.

[0082] Step 140: Calculate the number of green certificates owned by the buyer using the green certificate transaction volume, the number of green certificates required for the liability weight, and the number of green certificates expired by the buyer, as shown in formula (6).

[0083]

[0084] Among them, TGC buyers The number of green certificates owned by the buyer, TGC buyers,0 The number of green certificates initially held by the buyer, TGC trading is the green certificate trading volume, The number of green certificates that have expired for the buyer.

[0085] Preferably, if Figure 7 , Figure 7The third flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention; step 100 also includes: step 150, using the number of green certificates required for the responsibility weight, the number of green certificates owned by the buyer and the rate of change of the green certificate price to calculate the expected purchase quantity of green certificates, such as formula (7).

[0086]

[0087] Among them, TGC purchase The estimated purchase volume of green certificates.

[0088] Step 160: Calculate the number of green certificates owned by the seller based on the number of green certificates initially held by the seller, the number of green certificates separated from electricity, the trading volume of green certificates, and the number of green certificates expired by the seller, as shown in formula (8).

[0089]

[0090] Among them, TGC sellers The number of green certificates owned by the seller, TGC unbundled To prove the number of green certificates for electricity separation, TGC trading is the green certificate trading volume, The number of green certificates that have expired for the seller.

[0091] Step 170: Calculate the expected sales volume of green certificates using the current price of green certificates, the initial price of green certificates and the number of green certificates owned by the seller, as shown in formula (9).

[0092] TGC sales =TGC sellers ×P TGC / P TGC,0 (9)

[0093] Among them, TGC sales Estimated sales volume of green certificates.

[0094] Preferably, if Figure 8 , Figure 8 The fourth process diagram of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism coordination method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention; step 100 also includes: step 180, using the expected purchase volume of green certificates and the expected sales volume of green certificates to calculate the excess demand for green certificates, such as formula (10); step 190, using the excess demand for green certificates and the excess demand threshold for green certificates to construct a green certificate price change model, such as formula (1).

[0095]

[0096] Step 200: Use the renewable energy power generation in the green certificate price change model as the dependent variable and use the power demand and thermal power generation to build a power price change model.

[0097] like Figure 2 , Figure 2 The causal loop diagram of the power market in the present invention is composed of three main feedback loops. One of the feedback loops reflects the relationship between power market prices and supply and demand. When power supply increases and demand is relatively stable, power prices will fall. This price drop in turn stimulates an increase in power market demand, and the increase in demand will, to a certain extent, drive up power prices and achieve local equilibrium.

[0098] The other two feedback loops represent renewable energy generation and thermal power generation. In these two feedback loops, the increase in electricity prices will enable the two power generation companies to obtain higher profits, prompting them to increase investment in installed capacity and increase power generation. The increase in power generation leads to an increase in power market supply, a decrease in electricity prices, and a local equilibrium.

[0099] In this embodiment, renewable energy power generation includes renewable energy within the scope of green certificate issuance (referred to as covered) and renewable energy outside the scope of green certificate issuance (referred to as uncovered).

[0100] Preferably, if Fig. 9 , Fig. 9 The fifth flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism coordination method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention; step 200 includes: step 210, using the electricity price change model to calculate the electricity price change and using the electricity price change and the benchmark on-grid electricity price to calculate the real-time electricity price, such as equations (11) and (12).

[0101]

[0102] P ele =P ele,0 +∫ΔP ele ·dt (12),

[0103] Among them, S ele is the total power supply, D e ' le is the real-time power demand, P ele is the real-time electricity price, P ele,0 is the benchmark on-grid electricity price, ΔP ele is the electricity price change model, and β is the adjustment time of the electricity price.

[0104] Step 220: Calculate the real-time power demand using the power demand, the real-time power price, and the benchmark on-grid power price, as shown in equation (13).

[0105]

[0106] Among them, e dis the demand elasticity parameter of electricity price.

[0107] Preferably, if Fig.10 , Fig.10 This is a sixth flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention; step 200 also includes: step 230, using the cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy and the renewable energy induced investment coefficient to calculate the new installed capacity of renewable energy, such as formula (14).

[0108]

[0109] in, represents the newly installed capacity of renewable energy of the i-th category, i=1 represents renewable energy covered by the green certificate issuance scope, i=2 represents renewable energy not covered by the green certificate issuance scope, represents the cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy, is the coefficient of natural induced investment in renewable energy, is the renewable energy induced investment coefficient, Construction time for renewable energy installations.

[0110] Step 240: Calculate the cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy using the newly added installed capacity of renewable energy, the initial installed capacity of renewable energy and the dismantled installed capacity of renewable energy, as shown in formula (15).

[0111]

[0112] in, is the cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy, represents the initial installed capacity of renewable energy, Add new installed capacity for renewable energy.

[0113] Preferably, if Fig.11 , Fig.11 This is the seventh flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism coordination method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention; step 200 also includes: step 250, using the average monthly utilization hours of renewable energy and the cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy to calculate the renewable energy power generation as shown in formula (16).

[0114]

[0115] Among them, h R,i represents the average monthly utilization hours of renewable energy, Q R,i The amount of electricity generated by renewable energy.

[0116] Step 260: Calculate the thermal power generation using the average monthly utilization hours of thermal power generation and the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power generation, as shown in formula (17).

[0117]

[0118] Among them, Q T is the thermal power generation, It is the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power generation.

[0119] Step 270: Calculate the total power supply using renewable energy power generation and thermal power generation, as shown in equation (18).

[0120] S ele =Q R,i +Q T (18)

[0121] Step 280: construct an electricity price change model using the total electricity supply, the real-time electricity demand and the electricity price adjustment time, such as equation (11).

[0122] Step 300: Taking the thermal power generation in the electricity price change model as the dependent variable and using the expected carbon quota sales volume and the expected carbon quota purchase volume to construct a carbon quota price change model.

[0123] like Figure 3 , Figure 3 It is a schematic diagram of the causal loop of the carbon market in the present invention; while participating in electricity market transactions, thermal power plants will also buy and sell carbon quotas in the carbon market. The causal loop diagram of the carbon market contains two main feedback loops. In the first feedback loop, when the power generation of thermal power plants increases, the demand for carbon quotas increases accordingly. At this time, thermal power plants holding carbon quotas need additional carbon quotas for annual clearance to cope with the increase in power generation. Therefore, the number of remaining carbon quotas held by the manufacturers decreases, resulting in a decrease in the expected sales volume of carbon quotas in the market, which in turn triggers an increase in excess demand, and carbon quotas are in short supply, pushing up carbon prices. The rise in carbon prices increases the carbon emission costs of thermal power plants, thereby compressing their profit margins. In this case, market participants may reduce their investment in thermal power generation, resulting in a decrease in thermal power generation, and ultimately achieving a local equilibrium in the market.

[0124] In the second feedback loop, when thermal power plants increase their power generation, the demand for carbon quotas also increases. As the number of carbon quotas held by plants decreases, they need to purchase more quotas from the carbon market to meet the needs of annual clearance. This leads to an increase in the expected purchase of carbon quotas, which in turn exacerbates excess demand in the market. The impact mechanism of this feedback loop is similar to the first feedback loop: the increase in excess demand pushes up carbon prices, further increasing the carbon emission costs of thermal power plants and reducing their profits. In this case, market participants will reduce investment in thermal power generation, resulting in a decrease in thermal power generation, and eventually returning the system to a steady state.

[0125] Preferably, if Fig.12 , Fig.12 This is the eighth flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism coordination method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention; step 300 includes: step 310, using the carbon quota price change model to calculate the carbon quota price change, such as formula (19).

[0126]

[0127] Among them, ΔP CET It is the carbon quota price change model, which is used to calculate the carbon quota price change, CET excess is the excess demand for carbon quota, and η is the excess demand threshold for carbon quota.

[0128] Step 320: Calculate the carbon quota price using the carbon quota price change and the carbon quota base price, as shown in formula (20).

[0129] P CET =P CET,0 +∫ΔP CET ·dt (20)

[0130] Among them, P CET,0 is the initial price of carbon quota, ΔP CET Indicates the change in carbon quota price, P CET Indicates the real-time price of carbon quota.

[0131] Preferably, if Fig.13 , Fig.13 This is the ninth flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism coordination method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention; step 300 also includes: step 330, using thermal power generation, carbon emissions per unit of thermal power generation, and carbon emissions from other high-emission industries under carbon market expansion to calculate the carbon quota demand, such as formula (21).

[0132] CET required =ξ×Q T +λ×[EF×(AD ele -AD TGC )+CF×AD prod ] (twenty one)

[0133] CET required represents the carbon quota demand required by the power industry and other high-emission industries in the carbon market, ξ is the carbon emissions generated by unit thermal power generation, Q T is the amount of thermal power generation. EF is the national average emission factor for thermal power generation, AD ele and AD TGC are the outsourced electricity and green electricity and green certificate trading volumes of other industries, AD PRODis its primary energy consumption, and CF is the carbon emission factor.

[0134] Step 340: Calculate the buyer's carbon quotas based on the buyer's initial carbon quota holdings, carbon quota trading volume, and carbon quota demand, as shown in formula (22).

[0135] CET buyers =CET buyers,0 +∫(CET trading -CET required )·dt (22),

[0136] Among them, CET buyers The number of carbon quotas owned by the buyer, CET trading is the carbon quota trading volume, CET buyers,0 The initial carbon quota holdings of the buyer.

[0137] Step 350: Calculate the expected purchase amount of carbon quotas using the carbon quota demand, the carbon quotas owned by the buyer, the carbon quota benchmark price, and the carbon quota price, as shown in formula (23).

[0138]

[0139] Among them, CET purchase Estimated purchase volume for carbon allowances.

[0140] Preferably, if Fig.14 , Fig.14 The tenth flow chart of the green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling in the present invention. Step 300 also includes: Step 360, using the seller's initial carbon quota, the allocated carbon quota, and the carbon quota trading volume to calculate the seller's carbon quota, such as formula (24).

[0141] CET sellers =CET sellers,0 +∫(CET issued -CET trading )·dt (24),

[0142] Among them, CET sellers,0 In order to utilize the seller's initial carbon quota, CET issued To allocate the carbon quota obtained, CET sellers The carbon quota owned by the seller.

[0143] Step 370: Calculate the expected sales volume of carbon quotas using the seller's initial carbon quota holdings, the carbon quota benchmark price, and the carbon quota price, as shown in formula (25).

[0144] CET sales =CET sellers ×PCET / P CET,0 (25),

[0145] Among them, CET sales Estimated sales volume for carbon allowances.

[0146] Step 380: Calculate the excess demand for carbon quotas using the estimated sales volume of carbon quotas and the estimated purchase volume of carbon quotas, as shown in formula (26).

[0147]

[0148] Among them, CET excess The excess demand for carbon quotas.

[0149] Step 390: Use the excess demand for carbon quotas and the specified threshold to construct a carbon quota price change model, such as equation (19).

[0150] Step 400: By constructing a price change model for green certificates, electricity, and carbon quotas, and utilizing price formation mechanisms and investment decisions, the mutual coordination of the electricity market, green certificate market, and carbon market can be achieved. Figure 4 , Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the causal loop of the green certificate market, electricity market, and carbon market in the present invention. Renewable energy power generation companies and thermal power generation companies participate in the green certificate market and carbon market respectively. These markets have common participants, and the electricity market plays a bridging role. Changes in the price of green certificates will affect the profits of renewable energy power generation companies, thereby affecting their investment decisions, and then changing their installed capacity and power generation, and ultimately affecting electricity prices. Changes in electricity prices will in turn affect the investment decisions and power generation behavior of thermal power companies, ultimately leading to changes in the supply and demand of carbon quotas, affecting carbon prices. Conversely, changes in carbon prices will affect the investment decisions of thermal power companies, which in turn will affect electricity prices. In summary, the green certificate market establishes a connection with the carbon market through the electricity market, affecting the carbon market.

[0151] Implementing the green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling of the present invention,

[0152] By systematically analyzing the mutually coupled causal feedback relationship at the micro level of the three markets, constructing green certificate, electricity price change model and carbon quota price change model, and then using price formation mechanism and investment decision-making to achieve mutual coordination among the three markets, the coupling effect of carbon emission trading and tradable green certificates under the new green certificate policy is explored to achieve the goal of energy system transformation and carbon emission reduction.

[0153] The above are only preferred embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for synergizing green certificates and carbon market mechanisms based on system dynamics modeling, characterized by including: Step 100: construct a green certificate price change model using the estimated green certificate sales volume, the estimated green certificate purchase volume, and the renewable energy power generation; Step 200: Taking the renewable energy power generation in the green certificate price change model as the dependent variable and using the power demand and thermal power generation to construct a power price change model; Step 300: Taking the thermal power generation in the electricity price change model as the dependent variable and using the expected carbon quota sales volume and the expected carbon quota purchase volume to construct a carbon quota price change model; Step 400: The green certificate price change model, the electricity price change model, and the carbon quota price change model are used to realize the coordination among the electricity market, the green certificate market, and the carbon market, so as to achieve the goals of energy system transformation and carbon emission reduction.

2. The green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The step 100 comprises: Step 110, using the green certificate price change model to calculate the green certificate price change, and using the green certificate price change and the green certificate initial price to calculate the green certificate price cumulative change; Step 120, calculating the real-time price of the green certificate using the cumulative change in the green certificate price, the upper limit of the green certificate price, and the lower limit of the green certificate price; Step 130, using the renewable energy power consumption responsibility parameter and the green electricity green certificate trading volume to calculate the number of green certificates required to meet the consumption responsibility weight; Step 140: Calculate the number of green certificates owned by the buyer using the green certificate transaction volume, the number of green certificates required for the liability weight, and the number of green certificates expired by the buyer.

3. The green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The step 100 further includes: Step 150: Calculate the expected purchase quantity of green certificates using the quantity of green certificates required for the responsibility weight, the quantity of green certificates owned by the buyer, and the rate of change of green certificate prices; Step 160: Calculate the number of green certificates owned by the seller based on the number of green certificates initially held by the seller, the number of green certificates separated from electricity, the trading volume of green certificates, and the number of green certificates expired by the seller; Step 170: Calculate the expected sales volume of green certificates using the real-time price of green certificates, the initial price of green certificates and the number of green certificates owned by the seller.

4. The green certificate and carbon market mechanism synergy method based on system dynamics modeling according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The step 100 further includes: Step 180, using the estimated purchase volume of green certificates and the estimated sales volume of green certificates to calculate the excess demand for green certificates; Step 190: Construct a green certificate price change model using the excess demand for green certificates and the excess demand threshold for green certificates.

5. The method for coordinating green certificates and carbon market mechanisms based on system dynamics modeling according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The step 200 includes: Step 210: Calculate the power price change using the power price change model and calculate the real-time power price using the power price change and the benchmark on-grid power price; Step 220: Calculate the real-time power demand using the power demand, the real-time power price, and the benchmark on-grid power price.

6. The method for coordinating green certificates and carbon market mechanisms based on system dynamics modeling according to claim 5 is characterized in that: The step 200 further includes: Step 230, calculating the newly added installed capacity of renewable energy using the cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy and the renewable energy induced investment coefficient; Step 240: Calculate the cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy using the newly added installed capacity of renewable energy, the initial installed capacity of renewable energy, and the dismantled installed capacity of renewable energy.

7. The method for coordinating green certificates and carbon market mechanisms based on system dynamics modeling according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The step 200 further includes: Step 250, calculating the renewable energy power generation using the monthly average utilization hours of the renewable energy and the cumulative installed capacity of the renewable energy; Step 260, calculating the thermal power generation using the average monthly utilization hours of thermal power generation and the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power generation; Step 270, calculating the total power supply using renewable energy power generation and thermal power generation; Step 280: construct an electricity price change model using the total electricity supply, the real-time electricity demand and the electricity price adjustment time.

8. The method for coordinating green certificates and carbon market mechanisms based on system dynamics modeling according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The step 300 includes: Step 310: Calculate the carbon quota price change using the carbon quota price change model; Step 320: Calculate the carbon quota price using the carbon quota price change and the carbon quota base price.

9. The green certificate and carbon market mechanism coordination method based on system dynamics modeling according to claim 8 is characterized in that: The step 300 further includes: Step 330: Calculate the carbon quota demand using the thermal power generation, the carbon emissions per unit of thermal power generation, and the carbon emissions of other high-emission industries under the expansion of the carbon market; Step 340: Calculate the buyer's carbon quota based on the buyer's initial carbon quota holdings, carbon quota trading volume, and carbon quota demand; Step 350: Calculate the expected purchase amount of carbon quotas using the carbon quota demand, the carbon quotas owned by the buyer, the carbon quota benchmark price, and the carbon quota price.

10. The method for coordinating green certificates and carbon market mechanisms based on system dynamics modeling according to claim 9 is characterized in that: The step 300 further includes: Step 360: Calculate the carbon quota owned by the seller using the seller's initial carbon quota, the allocated carbon quota, and the carbon quota trading volume; Step 370: Calculate the expected sales volume of carbon quotas using the seller's initial carbon quota holdings, the carbon quota benchmark price, and the carbon quota price; Step 380: Calculate excess demand for carbon quotas using the estimated sales volume of carbon quotas and the estimated purchase volume of carbon quotas; Step 390: Construct a carbon quota price change model using excess carbon quota demand and a specified threshold.

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