Project cost risk monitoring system and method

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of risk monitoring, and discloses a project cost risk monitoring system and method, and the system comprises an information insufficiency judgment unit, an information delay judgment unit, and an information false judgment unit. The information insufficiency judgment unit is used for judging whether the cost data is missing or not according to the fluctuation of the material price and the deviation of the construction progress; the information delay judgment unit is used for estimating the reported delay time according to the sudden severe weather and the material shortage degree; and the information false judgment unit generates a three-dimensional engineering earthwork building material model according to the surveying and mapping of the unmanned aerial vehicle, and judges whether information false exists or not by comparing the report quantity of the construction side. Through the information insufficiency judgment unit, the information delay judgment unit and the information false judgment unit, the system can comprehensively cover three core risks of cost data missing, report delay and information false, and the limitation of single dependence on manual auditing or single data source in the traditional technology is solved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of risk monitoring, and particularly to a project cost risk monitoring system and method. Background Art

[0002] Project cost risks include: independent risks, internal risks, external risks, and information risks. Independent risks occur because cost consulting enterprises lack independence in essence, the scope of project implementation is restricted, and funds cannot be guaranteed, resulting in the absence of engineering consulting services and forming cost consulting risks. Internal risks are the inherent risks of consulting services increased due to insufficient execution of the internal control system. External risks come from changes in the client or stakeholders related to interests, causing external risks.

[0003] Information risk refers to insufficient, delayed, or false information collection, or decision-making errors caused by problems in consulting technology, thus affecting the interests of the consulting object. Among them, insufficient information collection includes the lack of recording or missing data in key links (such as design changes, material price fluctuations, construction progress deviations), and relying only on a single channel (such as the report of the construction party) without multi-party verification (supervision, suppliers, third-party testing).

[0004] The existing patent discloses a project cost risk monitoring method and a project cost management platform (CN119151288A). In the technology disclosed in this patent, by constructing key task chains (such as the first and second key task chains), directly associating contract terms with construction progress, dynamic review and early warning of contract performance are realized. However, it lacks solutions to problems such as the absence, delay, and falsity of cost data (such as material price fluctuations, construction progress deviations). Summary of the Invention

[0005] The main technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a project cost risk monitoring system and method, which solves the problems in the above background art.

[0006] To solve the above technical problem, according to one aspect of the present invention, more specifically, a project cost risk monitoring system includes an insufficient information judgment unit, an information delay judgment unit, and an information falsity judgment unit; The insufficient information judgment unit judges whether cost data is missing according to the fluctuation of material prices and the deviation of construction progress; The information delay judgment unit estimates the delay time of the report according to sudden bad weather and the degree of material shortage; The information falsity judgment unit generates a three-dimensional model of engineering earthwork building materials by using unmanned aerial vehicle surveying and mapping, and judges whether there is false information by comparing the quantity reported by the construction party.

[0007] Further, the insufficient information judgment unit and the information delay judgment unit are both provided with an information collection module, an information processing module, and an early warning discrimination module; The information collection module is used to collect real-time data of material prices, construction progress information, sudden bad weather information, and the degree of material shortage; The information processing module is used to parameterize the real-time changes in material prices and the deviation of the construction progress, as well as parameterize the sudden bad weather and the degree of material shortage; The early warning discrimination module judges whether the cost data is missing according to the real-time deviation of the material price and the construction progress deviation, and estimates the postponement time of the report according to the severity of the weather and the degree of material shortage.

[0008] Further, the insufficient information judgment unit calculates the conditional coefficient for the missing cost data, as follows: ; In the formula, represents the conditional coefficient for the missing cost data, represents the cost deviation of engineering materials, represents the price difference rate between the budget price and the actual purchase price, represents the cumulative deviation days of the construction progress.

[0009] Further, when , it indicates that there are obvious missing data in the key links of the project cost; when , it indicates that there are no obvious missing data in the key links of the project cost.

[0010] Further, the information delay judgment unit estimates the postponement of the reporting time, as follows: ; In the formula, represents the estimated postponement days of the reporting time, represents the number of days affected by the weather, represents the efficiency coefficient, represents the difference between the actual arrival time of the material and the original plan, represents the number of construction days that the current inventory can support, represents the critical path coefficient.

[0011] Further, the information false judgment unit specifically includes a drone deployment module, a drone data collection module, and a three-dimensional modeling module; The drone deployment module is used to plan the flight altitude, heading overlap rate, and side overlap rate of the drone; The drone data collection module is used to collect the height of each sampling point of building materials and earthwork, as well as the floor area of the earthwork; The three-dimensional modeling module is used to generate a mathematical model of building materials and earthwork based on the UAV surveying and mapping data, and then calculate the volume of the building materials and earthwork.

[0012] Furthermore, the three-dimensional modeling module divides according to the floor area of the building materials and earthwork into equal rectangular grids, and calculates the volume of the building materials and earthwork based on the average height of each rectangular grid. There is: ; In the formula, represents the calculated volume of the building materials and earthwork, represents the th rectangular grid area. represents the th average height of the rectangular grid.

[0013] A method for monitoring project cost risks includes the following steps: S1. The information insufficiency judgment unit monitors and judges in real time whether the cost data is missing; S2. The information delay judgment unit estimates the delay time of the reported data, and then judges whether the actual delayed reported time exceeds 10% of the estimated reported time; S3. Generate a building materials and earthwork model through UAV surveying and mapping, and compare whether the quantity reported by the construction party exceeds 5%; S4. If there is a lack of cost data, the reported time exceeds 10% of the estimated reported time, or the building materials and earthwork exceed 5% of the reported quantity during the factory cost process, a third-party audit procedure will be initiated.

[0014] For a project cost risk monitoring system and method provided by the present invention, compared with the prior art, the effects obtained by this method are: 1. Through the information insufficiency judgment unit, information delay judgment unit and information false judgment unit of the present invention, the system can comprehensively cover the three core risks of missing cost data, delayed reporting and false information, and solves the limitations of traditional technologies that rely solely on manual review or single data sources.

[0015] 2. By introducing the conditional coefficient g in the mathematical model to quantify the risk of missing data, and combining multi-parameter dynamic analysis such as cost deviation, price difference rate and construction progress deviation, the present invention significantly improves the accuracy and objectivity of judgment, and avoids the errors of traditional subjective experience judgment.

[0016] 3. Through the information delay judgment unit, the present invention scientifically estimates the reported delay time by formula D considering factors such as weather impact, material shortage and critical path coefficient, provides a quantitative basis for project management, and is superior to traditional methods that rely on empirical estimation.

[0017] 4. By using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveying and mapping and 3D modeling technologies, the present invention can quickly generate earthwork and building material models and compare them with the reported data, greatly improving the efficiency and accuracy of false information identification. When the deviation exceeds 5%, an audit is triggered, which is difficult to achieve with the same efficiency and accuracy by traditional manual measurement methods.

[0018] 5. The present invention provides a large number of mathematical models and empirical data to support decision-making, enhancing the scientific nature and traceability of risk monitoring and making up for the lack of quantitative basis in traditional technologies. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0019] Figure 1 is a flowchart of the present invention; Figure 2 is a mathematical model diagram of the proportion G of missing information and the cost deviation a in the present invention; Figure 3 is a mathematical model diagram of the proportion G of missing information and the deviation days t in the present invention; Figure 4 is a mathematical model diagram of the proportion G of missing information and the price difference rate m in the present invention; Figure 5 is a mathematical model diagram of the proportion G of missing information and the price difference rate m and the deviation days t in the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0020] To make the technical solution of the present invention clearer, the following further describes the present invention in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0021] As Figure 1 shown, a method for monitoring project cost risks includes the following steps: Step 1: The information insufficiency judgment unit monitors and judges in real time whether the cost data is missing.

[0022] Step 2: The information delay judgment unit estimates the postponed time of the report and then judges whether the actual postponed report time exceeds 10% of the estimated report time.

[0023] Step 3: Generate a building material and earthwork model through UAV surveying and mapping, and compare whether the quantity reported by the construction party exceeds 5%.

[0024] Step 4: If there is missing cost data, the reported time exceeds 10% of the estimated report time, or the building material and earthwork exceed 5% of the reported quantity during the factory cost process, a third-party audit process will be initiated.

[0025] Embodiment 1 As Figure 1As shown, according to an aspect of the present invention, a project cost risk monitoring system is provided, including an information insufficiency judgment unit, an information delay judgment unit, and an information falsity judgment unit. The information insufficiency judgment unit judges whether the cost data is missing according to the fluctuation of material prices and the deviation of the construction progress; the information delay judgment unit estimates the delay time of the report according to the sudden bad weather and the degree of material shortage; the information falsity judgment unit generates a three-dimensional engineering earthwork and building material model through UAV mapping, and judges whether there is false information by comparing the quantity reported by the construction party. Through the information insufficiency judgment unit, the information delay judgment unit and the information falsity judgment unit, the system can comprehensively cover the three core risks of missing cost data, delayed reporting and false information, and solves the limitations of single reliance on manual review or single data source in traditional technologies.

[0026] Embodiment 2 As Figure 1 shown, the information insufficiency judgment unit and the information delay judgment unit are jointly provided with an information collection module, an information processing module and a warning discrimination module; the information collection module is used to collect real-time data of material prices and construction progress information, as well as sudden bad weather information and the degree of material shortage; the information processing module is used to parameterize the real-time change of the collected material price and the deviation of the construction progress, and parameterize the sudden bad weather and the degree of material shortage; the warning discrimination module judges whether the cost data is missing according to the real-time deviation of the material price and the deviation of the construction progress, and estimates the delay time of the report according to the severity of the weather and the degree of material shortage. The information delay judgment unit estimates the delay of the reporting time as follows: ; In the formula, represents the estimated delay days of the reporting time, represents the number of days affected by the weather, represents the efficiency coefficient, represents the difference between the actual arrival time of the material and the original plan, represents the number of construction days that the current inventory can support, represents the critical path coefficient.

[0027] Among them, the information delay judgment unit collects future or past weather. The weather with a temperature exceeding 30°C is high-temperature weather, and the number of days with a future temperature exceeding 30°C is 12 days. Then the number of days affected by the weather (days), and the efficiency coefficient of high-temperature weather is taken as (the efficiency coefficient of light rain weather = 0.5, the efficiency coefficient of heavy rain weather = 0.9, the efficiency coefficient of sand and dust weather = 0.3, the efficiency coefficient of high-temperature weather = 0.7).

[0028] And, the difference between the actual arrival time of the steel bar material and the original plan is taken as (days), the number of construction days that the current inventory of steel materials can support is (days), the critical path coefficient is (if it affects the critical path process, the coefficient = 1; if it affects the non-critical path, the coefficient = 0), then there is: ; It can be known from the above calculation that the estimated delay days of the reporting time are days.

[0029] Embodiment 3 As Figures 1-5 shown, the information insufficiency judgment unit calculates the condition coefficient of the missing cost data, and there is: ; In the formula, represents the condition coefficient of the missing cost data, represents the cost deviation of the engineering materials, represents the price difference rate between the budget price and the actual purchase price, represents the cumulative deviation days of the construction progress.

[0030] Among them, for any calculation of the condition coefficient of the missing cost data. The cost deviation of the engineering materials is (cost deviation = (actual purchase price - average price in the past 10 days of purchase) / average price in the past 10 days of purchase).

[0031] The price difference rate between the budget price and the actual purchase price is (price difference rate = (actual price - budget price) / budget price). The cumulative deviation days of the construction progress are (days). Then there is: ; It can be known from the above calculation that the condition coefficient of the missing cost data this time is , then it indicates that there are obvious missing data in the key links of the project cost. And there is: Table 1 Parameter and Cost Information Status of Some Embodiments

[0032] It can be known from the data in Table 1 above that when the sample data tends to infinity, there will be a boundary for dividing whether there is obvious missing data in the key links by the condition coefficient g. That is, when , it indicates that there are obvious missing data in the key links of the project cost; when , it indicates that there is no obvious missing data in the key links of the project cost. When , it is impossible to clearly judge whether there is information missing, and at this time, a cost engineer is needed for auxiliary judgment.

[0033] In this embodiment, regarding the derivation and principle of the formula for calculating the condition coefficient g of the missing cost data, there is: Among them, The conditional coefficient indicating the absence of cost data. Therefore, the proportion G of the missing information on project cost that can be determined by manual sampling audit is used as the standard for modeling to judge the conditional coefficient of missing cost data. Thus, we have: 1). Take a large number of samples of the proportion G of the missing information on project cost and the cost deviation a, and establish Mathematical Model 1 (this mathematical model is as Figure 2 shown). From this Mathematical Model 1, the following formula can be constructed: Formula 1; 2). Take a large number of samples of the proportion G of the missing information on project cost and the deviation days t, and establish Mathematical Model 2 (this mathematical model is as Figure 3 shown). From this Mathematical Model 2, the following formula can be constructed: Formula 2; 3). Take a large number of samples of the proportion G of the missing information on project cost and the price difference rate m, and establish Mathematical Model 3 (this mathematical model is as Figure 4 shown). From this Mathematical Model 3, the following formula can be constructed: Formula 3; 4). After controlling any one variable, establish Mathematical Model 4 between the proportion G of the missing information on project cost and the other two variables.

[0034] For example, control the cost deviation a, and construct a mathematical model between the proportion G of the missing information on project cost and the price difference rate m and the deviation days t (as Figure 5 shown), then: the proportion G of the missing information on project cost = Formula 2 × Formula 3; 5). Then, from the above derivation, it can be known that the conditional coefficient g of missing cost data is: .

[0035] Embodiment 4 As Figure 1 shown, the false information judgment unit specifically includes a drone deployment module, a drone data collection module, and a 3D modeling module. The drone deployment module is used to plan the flight altitude, heading overlap rate, and side overlap rate of the drone. The drone data collection module is used to collect the height of each sampling point of building materials and earthwork and the occupied area of the earthwork. The 3D modeling module is used to generate a mathematical model of building materials and earthwork based on the drone survey data, and then calculate the volume of building materials and earthwork.

[0036] The 3D modeling module divides the occupied area of building materials and earthwork into equal rectangular grids, and based on the average height of each rectangular grid, calculates the volume of building materials and earthwork, and we have: ; where represents the calculated volume of building materials and earthwork, represents the The area of a rectangular grid. Indicates the average height of the

[0037] The above-described embodiments merely represent several implementation manners of the present invention. The description is relatively specific and detailed, but it should not be construed as a limitation on the scope of the patent for the present invention. It should be noted that for those of ordinary skill in the art, without departing from the concept of the present invention, several modifications and improvements can still be made, and these all belong to the protection scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the patent for the present invention shall be subject to the appended claims.

Claims

1. A project cost risk monitoring system, characterized in that, It includes an insufficient information judgment unit, an information delay judgment unit, and an information falsity judgment unit; The insufficient information judgment unit judges whether the cost data is missing according to the fluctuation of material prices and the deviation of construction progress; The information delay judgment unit estimates the delay time of the report according to sudden bad weather and the degree of material shortage; The information falsity judgment unit generates a three-dimensional engineering earthwork building material model through UAV mapping, and judges whether there is false information by comparing the quantity reported by the construction party.

2. The project cost risk monitoring system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The insufficient information judgment unit and the information delay judgment unit are jointly provided with an information collection module, an information processing module, and a warning discrimination module; The information collection module is used to collect real-time data of material prices and construction progress information, as well as sudden bad weather information and the degree of material shortage; The information processing module is used to parameterize the real-time change of material prices and the deviation of construction progress, and to parameterize sudden bad weather and the degree of material shortage; The warning discrimination module judges whether the cost data is missing according to the real-time deviation of material prices and the deviation of construction progress, and estimates the delay time of the report according to the degree of bad weather and the degree of material shortage.

3. The project cost risk monitoring system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The information insufficiency judgment unit calculates the conditional coefficient for the lack of cost data, as follows: ; where represents the conditional coefficient for the lack of cost data, represents the cost deviation of engineering materials, represents the price difference rate between the budget price and the actual purchase price, represents the cumulative deviation days of the construction progress.

4. The project cost risk monitoring system according to claim 3, wherein: When it indicates that there are obvious missing data in the key links of project cost; when it indicates that there are no obvious missing data in the key links of project cost.

5. The project cost risk monitoring system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The information delay judgment unit makes a postponed estimation of the reporting time, as follows: ; where represents the estimated postponed days of the reporting time, represents the days affected by the weather, represents the efficiency coefficient, represents the difference between the actual arrival time of the material and the original plan, represents the number of construction days that the current inventory can support, represents the critical path coefficient.

6. The project cost risk monitoring system according to claim 1, wherein: The information falsity judgment unit specifically includes a UAV deployment module, a UAV data collection module, and a three-dimensional modeling module; The UAV deployment module is used to plan the flight altitude, heading overlap rate, and side overlap rate of the UAV; The UAV data collection module is used to collect the height of each sampling point of the building materials earthwork and the floor area of the earthwork; The three-dimensional modeling module is used to generate a mathematical model of the building materials earthwork according to the UAV mapping data, and then calculate the volume of the building materials earthwork.

7. The project cost risk monitoring system according to claim 6, wherein: The three-dimensional modeling module divides according to the floor area of the building materials soil into equal rectangular grids, and calculates the volume of the building materials soil based on the average height of each rectangular grid. There is: ; In the formula, represents the calculated volume of the building materials soil, represents the th area of the rectangular grid, represents the average height of the th rectangular grid.

8. A method for monitoring project cost risks, characterized in that, Applied to the project cost risk monitoring system described in any one of claims 1-7, the project cost risk monitoring method includes the following steps: S1. The insufficient information judgment unit monitors and judges in real time whether the cost data is missing; S2. The information delay judgment unit estimates the delay time of the report, and then judges whether the actual delayed reporting time exceeds 10% of the estimated reporting time; S3. Generate a building materials earthwork model through UAV mapping, and compare whether the quantity reported by the construction party exceeds 5%; S4. If there is a lack of cost data, the reporting time exceeds 10% of the estimated reporting time, or the building materials earthwork exceeds 5% of the reported quantity during the factory cost calculation process, a third-party audit procedure will be initiated.

Images