Method and system for evaluating off-site economic loss after nuclear accident

Abstract

The invention provides an off-site economic loss evaluation method and system after a nuclear accident. The evaluation method comprises the following steps: S1, performing economic loss evaluation on protective measures adopted in an early stage after the nuclear accident; s2, performing economic loss evaluation on the protective measures adopted in the middle stage after the nuclear accident; s3, performing economic loss evaluation on the protective measures adopted in the long-term stage after the nuclear accident; and S4, estimating economic loss caused by the nuclear accident. According to the method, economic quantitative closed-loop of post-accident complete-cycle protection measures is realized for the first time, and scientific basis is provided for nuclear accident emergency resource allocation through triple innovation of dynamic grid management, a multi-condition decision tree and an asset depreciation algorithm. Fine grid management is adopted, grids are divided with the nuclear power plant as the center, and protection measures of different areas are managed in a fine mode. Parameters such as the number of people, the area ratio of the farmland to the non-farmland, the land value and the like are considered in each grid, and the pertinence and the accuracy of evaluation are enhanced.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the field of nuclear accident evaluation, in particular to a method and system for evaluating off-site economic loss after a nuclear accident. BACKGROUND

[0002] In the field of nuclear safety, three-level probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) has been recognized as a core means to assess the consequences of nuclear accidents. Current three-level PSA research focuses mainly on public exposure dose and health effects, such as quantitatively characterizing the dose size and its spatial distribution after the release of radioactive substances by means of complex models and massive data, and then calculating the occurrence probability of health effects such as acute radiation sickness and long-term cancer, so as to quantify the risk to public health brought by nuclear accidents.

[0003] However, the research of three-level PSA in the aspect of social and economic impact is still weak. Once a nuclear accident occurs, its economic impact is often rapid and far-reaching: large-scale evacuation and relocation immediately start. The per capita evacuation and relocation costs generated thereby, such as personnel transportation, temporary accommodation site construction and maintenance, etc., all need to be quantified. In addition, the per capita residential, commercial and public area value in the contaminated area will suffer varying degrees of depreciation, and decontamination costs and land value losses cannot be ignored.

[0004] Therefore, it is imminent to conduct in-depth research on social and economic impact. In the planning and design stage of nuclear power plants, if the economic consequences of potential accidents can be taken into account, the site selection decision of the nuclear power plant can be optimized. For example, try to avoid densely populated and highly concentrated economic activity areas, or reserve sufficient economic buffer space in planning, and make more reasonable emergency plan budget accordingly.

[0005] In the daily operation stage of nuclear power plants, the research results can be used to evaluate the potential economic risks that different operation strategies may bring, and then guide the operation party to make a better choice between risk and benefit. Once an accident occurs, the pre-completed research on social and economic impact will provide scientific and comprehensive basis for emergency decision-making. When determining the evacuation range, not only the health risk, but also the economic cost caused by the evacuation action itself and the interruption of regional activities can be comprehensively weighed, so as to realize the precise allocation of emergency resources and minimize the negative impact of the accident on the social economy.

[0006] Therefore, the present application inventors designed a method and system for evaluating off-site economic loss after a nuclear accident in order to overcome the above technical problems. SUMMARY

[0007] The technical problem to be solved by the present application is to overcome the defect that the three-level probabilistic safety analysis in the aspect of social and economic impact is still weak in the prior art, and to provide a method and system for evaluating off-site economic loss after a nuclear accident.

[0008] The present application solves the above technical problems by the following technical solutions:

[0009] A method for evaluating economic loss after a nuclear accident, characterized in that the method comprises the following steps:

[0010] S1, evaluating economic loss of protection measures taken in an early stage after the nuclear accident;

[0011] S2, evaluating economic loss of protection measures taken in a middle stage after the nuclear accident;

[0012] S3, evaluating economic loss of protection measures taken in a long-term stage after the nuclear accident;

[0013] S4, estimating economic loss caused by the nuclear accident.

[0014] According to an embodiment of the present application, the step S1 comprises:

[0015] S 11 dividing a region around a nuclear power plant into a plurality of fan-shaped grids with the nuclear power plant as the center, defining population number on each grid according to population distribution around the nuclear power plant, and defining protection measures (including evacuation, sheltering and resettlement) so that each grid corresponds to one protection measure;

[0016] S 12 evaluating economic loss of the protection measure corresponding to each grid in the step S 11 by using formula 1 to obtain economic loss of each grid;

[0017] Formula 1:

[0018] wherein CE k,j represents economic cost of taking protection measure j on grid k; P k represents population number of grid k; D j represents duration of taking measure j; and I j represents cost of measure j per person per day;

[0019] S 13 adding up economic loss of each grid calculated in the step S 12 to obtain economic loss in the early stage.

[0020] According to an embodiment of the present application, the step S 11The method comprises the following steps: (1) drawing concentric circles with the nuclear power plant as the center and with 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 and 80 km as the radii, and dividing the 360 degrees into 16 azimuth sectors by using the 22.5-degree sector angle.

[0021] According to one embodiment of the present application, the step S2 comprises:

[0022] S 21 , dividing the area around the nuclear power plant into a plurality of sector grids with the nuclear power plant as the center; and defining the population number on each grid according to the population distribution around the nuclear power plant;

[0023] S 22 , respectively using formula 2 and formula 3 to calculate the ground irradiation and resuspension inhalation irradiation dose in each grid;

[0024] Formula 2:

[0025] Formula 3:

[0026] wherein DG represents the ground irradiation dose; GC i represents the ground concentration of nuclide i; DFG i represents the ground irradiation dose rate conversion factor of nuclide i; SFG represents the ground irradiation protection factor; t1 and t2 represent the start and end times of irradiation; represents the decay constant of nuclide i; Gw(t) represents the wind erosion function; DR represents the resuspension inhalation irradiation dose; BR represents the breathing rate; DFR i represents the resuspension inhalation irradiation dose conversion factor of nuclide i; SFR represents the inhalation protection factor; Rw(t) represents the resuspension wind erosion function;

[0027] S 23 , judging whether the sum of the ground irradiation dose and the resuspension inhalation irradiation dose exceeds the acceptable limit value; if yes, taking resettlement protection measures for all the people in the grid, and using formula 4 to evaluate the corresponding economic loss;

[0028] Formula 4:

[0029] wherein CM k is the economic cost of the grid k caused by taking resettlement protection measures; P k is the population number of the grid k; D is the duration of resettlement; I is the cost of resettlement;

[0030] S 24 , adding up the economic losses of each grid calculated in the step S 23 to obtain the economic loss in the medium-term stage.

[0031] According to one embodiment of the present application, the step S 21 comprises: drawing concentric circles with the nuclear power plant position as the center and radii of 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 km, respectively, and dividing 360° into 16 azimuth sectors in combination with 22.5° of the equal division central angle.

[0032] According to one embodiment of the present application, the step S3 comprises:

[0033] S 31 , dividing the surrounding area into a fan-shaped grid with the nuclear power plant position as the center, defining the population number on each grid, the area proportion of farmland and non-farmland, the farmland value, and the non-farmland value;

[0034] S 32 , determining the protective measures taken on each grid;

[0035] S 33 , calculating the economic loss corresponding to each protective measure in the long-term stage;

[0036] S 34 , judging the economy of the protective measures on the grid;

[0037] S 35 , adding the economic loss of each grid calculated in the step S 34 to obtain the economic loss in the long-term stage.

[0038] According to one embodiment of the present application, the step S 32 comprises:

[0039] S 321 , judging whether the habitability is met without taking any measures; if yes, no measures need to be taken; if no, entering the step S 322 ;

[0040] S 322 , calculating the ground exposure dose DG1 and the resuspension inhalation exposure dose DR1 under the decontamination means, and judging whether the sum of DG1 and DR1 is less than the acceptable limit value DTH; if yes, determining to take the decontamination measures; if no, entering the step S 232 ;

[0041] S 323 , calculating the ground exposure dose DG2 and the resuspension inhalation exposure dose DR2 after taking the decontamination and then the sealing measures on the farmland, and judging whether the sum of DG2 and DR2 is less than the acceptable limit value DTH; if yes, determining to take the decontamination and then the sealing measures; if no, entering the step S 324 ;

[0042] S 324 , increase the confinement time until the sum of DG2 and DR2 is less than the acceptable limit DTH, determine the confinement time; if the non-agricultural land cannot meet the habitability after decontamination and confinement for 30 years, give up the land.

[0043] According to an embodiment of the present application, the step S 32 For agricultural land, in addition to meeting the habitability of personnel, it is also necessary to ensure that the radionuclide concentration of the ground surface is less than the specified threshold value, which specifically includes:

[0044] S 321’ , using formula 5 to calculate the sum RS of the ratio of the radionuclide concentration in the grid at the initial time to the threshold concentration; determining whether RS is greater than 1; if yes, entering step S 322’ ; if no, meeting the concentration requirement, no need to stop production of agricultural land;

[0045] Formula 5: ;

[0046] Wherein, RS represents the sum of the ratio of the radionuclide concentration to the threshold concentration after the agricultural land stops production for YRS years; GC i represents the ground activity concentration of radionuclide i; is the decay constant of radionuclide i; GCMAX i represents the ground activity concentration limit of radionuclide i;

[0047] S 322’ , limiting agricultural production, assuming the stop production time YRS to be 1 year first, substituting into formula 5 to calculate RS; then determining whether RS is greater than 1; if yes, entering step S 323’ ; if no, entering step S 324’ ;

[0048] S 323’ , increasing the stop production time by 1 year, substituting into formula 5 to calculate RS, and continuing to determine whether RS is greater than 1; if yes, entering step S 325’ ; if no, entering step S 324’ ;

[0049] S 324’ , meeting the concentration requirement, determining the stop production time of the agricultural land;

[0050] S 325’ , continue to increase the stop production time until RS is not greater than 1; if the stop production time is 8 years, and RS is still greater than 1, then directly give up the agricultural land.

[0051] According to an embodiment of the present application, the step S 33 For non-agricultural land, the economic loss corresponding to each protection measure in the long-term stage includes:

[0052] When the protective measure is decontamination and post-decontamination quarantine, the economic loss is calculated using Formula 6.

[0053] Formula 6:

[0054] When the protective measure is abandonment of non-agricultural land, the economic loss is calculated using Formula 7.

[0055] Formula 7:

[0056] Where CLNF represents the total cost of the protective measures for non-agricultural land on the grid; CDNF represents the per capita decontamination cost; CRNF represents the per capita cost of evacuating personnel during decontamination or quarantine; CCNF represents the per capita cost of depreciation, loss, and depreciation caused by long-term non-use of goods during decontamination or quarantine; P represents the population on the grid; CLCNF represents the cost of abandoning non-agricultural land; and VALWNF represents the value of non-agricultural property in the region.

[0057] According to one embodiment of the present application, the step S 33 calculates the economic loss corresponding to each protective measure in the long-term phase for agricultural land, including:

[0058] When the protective measure is decontamination and post-decontamination quarantine, the economic loss is calculated using Formula 8.

[0059] Formula 8:

[0060] Where CLF represents the total cost of the protective measures for agricultural land on the grid; CDF represents the area average decontamination cost; CCF represents the cost of depreciation, loss, and depreciation caused by long-term non-use of goods during decontamination or quarantine; FPF represents the cost of crops that need to be discarded during agricultural land quarantine; and AF represents the area of agricultural land on the grid.

[0061] When the protective measure is abandonment of agricultural land, the economic loss is the value of the agricultural land itself, CLCF.

[0062] According to one embodiment of the present application, the step S 34 includes:

[0063] S 341 , the cost of abandoning non-agricultural land CLCNF and the cost of abandoning agricultural land CLCF calculated in the step S 33 ; for non-agricultural land, it is determined whether CLNF is greater than CLCNF; if so, the non-agricultural land is abandoned, and the final cost is CLCNF; if not, the final cost is CLNF.

[0064] S​​​342 For farmland, it is judged whether CLF is greater than CLCF; if yes, the farmland is abandoned, and the final cost is CLCF; if no, the final cost is CLF;

[0065] S 343 The total cost on the grid is MIN (CLNF, CLCNF) + MIN (CLF, CLCF).

[0066] The application further provides a nuclear accident post-out-of-field economic loss evaluation system, characterized in that the nuclear accident post-out-of-field economic loss evaluation system adopts the nuclear accident post-out-of-field economic loss evaluation method as described above.

[0067] A nuclear accident early stage evaluation model is configured to evaluate the economic loss of the protection measures taken in the early stage of the nuclear accident.

[0068] A nuclear accident middle stage evaluation model is configured to evaluate the economic loss of the protection measures taken in the middle stage of the nuclear accident.

[0069] A nuclear accident long stage evaluation model is configured to evaluate the economic loss of the protection measures taken in the long stage of the nuclear accident.

[0070] The application further provides an electronic device, characterized in that the electronic device comprises a processor and a memory, the memory stores programs or instructions executable on the processor, and the programs or instructions are executed by the processor to realize the nuclear accident post-out-of-field economic loss evaluation method as described above.

[0071] The application further provides a readable storage medium, characterized in that the readable storage medium stores programs or instructions, and the programs or instructions are executed by a processor to realize the nuclear accident post-out-of-field economic loss evaluation method as described above.

[0072] The application has the following positive progress effects:

[0073] The nuclear accident post-out-of-field economic loss evaluation method and system realize the economic quantification closed loop of the protection measures in the whole cycle after the accident for the first time, and provide a scientific basis for the nuclear accident emergency resource allocation through the triple innovation of dynamic grid management, multi-condition decision tree and asset depreciation algorithm.

[0074] The nuclear accident post-out-of-field economic loss evaluation method and system have the following advantages:

[0075] I. The protection measures and corresponding economic costs in each time stage after the accident are considered, and the farmland and non-farmland are distinguished, so that the protection measures are considered comprehensively.

[0076] Secondly, the model and system have strong universality and scalability, and the basic parameters can be flexibly adjusted and optimized according to actual regional conditions.

[0077] Thirdly, fine grid management: the grid is divided based on nuclear power plants, and the protection measures of different regions are managed finely. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0078] The above and other features, properties and advantages of the present application will become more apparent by referring to the following description in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, in which like reference numerals refer to like features throughout the drawings, and in which:

[0079] Fig. 1 It is a schematic diagram of economic loss after a nuclear accident in the method for evaluating economic loss outside the scene after a nuclear accident.

[0080] Fig. 2 It is a schematic diagram for judging the protection measures of non-agricultural land in the method for evaluating economic loss outside the scene after a nuclear accident.

[0081] Fig. 3 It is a schematic diagram for judging the production suspension measures of farmland in the method for evaluating economic loss outside the scene after a nuclear accident. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0082] In order to make the above-mentioned purposes, features and advantages of the present application more obvious and easy to understand, the specific embodiments of the present application will be described in detail below in combination with the drawings.

[0083] The embodiments of the present application will now be described in detail with reference to the drawings. The preferred embodiments of the present application will now be described in detail with reference to the drawings. Examples are shown in the drawings. In any possible case, the same reference signs will be used to represent the same or similar parts in all the drawings.

[0084] In addition, although the terms used in the present application are selected from well-known and commonly used terms, some terms mentioned in the specification of the present application can be selected by the applicant according to his or her judgment, and the detailed meanings thereof are described in the relevant part of the description herein.

[0085] In addition, the present application is required to be understood not only by the actual terms used, but also by the meanings implied by each term.

[0086] As Figs. 1 to 3As shown, the present application discloses a method for evaluating economic loss outside the nuclear accident site, which is used for evaluating the economic loss of the protection measures taken in the early stage (usually within one week after the accident), the medium stage (one month or more after the early stage) and the long-term stage (several years or more after the medium stage) after the accident.

[0087] The method for evaluating economic loss outside the nuclear accident site comprises the following steps:

[0088] Step S1, evaluating the economic loss of the protection measures taken in the early stage after the accident.

[0089] In the early stage, the protection measures that can be taken according to the actual situation of the people in different positions are evacuation, sheltering and resettlement.

[0090] Preferably, the step S1 comprises:

[0091] Step S 11 , dividing the area around the nuclear power plant into a plurality of fan-shaped grids with the position of the nuclear power plant as the center. Defining the number of people on each grid according to the population distribution around the nuclear power plant, and defining the protection measures (including evacuation, sheltering and resettlement) so that each grid corresponds to one protection measure.

[0092] For example, concentric circles with radii of 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 and 80 km are drawn with the position of the nuclear power plant as the center, and 360° is divided into 16 azimuth sectors with an equal division central angle of 22.5°.

[0093] Step S 12 , evaluating the economic loss of the protection measure corresponding to each grid in the step S 11 by using formula 1 to obtain the economic loss of each grid.

[0094] Formula 1: ;

[0095] Wherein, CE k,j j represents the economic cost (yuan) of taking protection measure j on grid k; P k k represents the number of people (person) on grid k; D j j represents the duration (day) of taking measure j; I j j represents the cost (yuan / day-person) that each person needs to spend per day for measure j, which includes temporary accommodation, catering, transportation, income loss, etc.

[0096] Step S 13 , adding the economic loss of each grid calculated in the step S 12 to obtain the economic loss in the early stage.

[0097] Step S2, economic loss assessment of the protection measures taken in the medium-term stage after the nuclear accident.

[0098] The personnel in the medium-term stage accident area are mainly exposed to the ground exposure and resuspension inhalation exposure. If the sum of the two exposure doses is greater than the acceptable value, the personnel need to be resettled for protection.

[0099] Preferably, the step S2 comprises:

[0100] Step S 21 , dividing the area around the nuclear power plant into multiple fan grids with the nuclear power plant location as the center, and defining the population number on each grid according to the population distribution around the nuclear power plant.

[0101] For example, concentric circles with radii of 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, and 80 km are drawn with the nuclear power plant location as the center, and 360° is divided into 16 azimuth sectors with a 22.5° sector angle.

[0102] Step S 22 , respectively using formula 2 and formula 3 to calculate the ground exposure and resuspension inhalation exposure doses in each grid.

[0103] Formula 2:

[0104] Formula 3:

[0105] wherein DG represents the ground exposure dose (Sv); GC i represents the ground concentration of nuclide i (Bq / m 2 ); DFG i represents the ground exposure dose rate conversion factor of nuclide i (Sv-m 2 / Bq-s); SFG represents the ground exposure protection factor; t1 and t2 represent the start and end times of exposure (s); represents the decay constant of nuclide i (s -1 ); Gw(t) represents the wind erosion function; DR represents the resuspension inhalation exposure dose (Sv); BR represents the breathing rate (m 3 / s); DFR i represents the resuspension inhalation exposure dose conversion factor of nuclide i (Sv / Bq); SFR represents the inhalation protection factor; Rw(t) represents the resuspension wind erosion function (m -1 ).

[0106] Further, Gw(t) in the above formula 2 is calculated by the following formula:

[0107] ;

[0108] wherein WC1 and WC2 are wind erosion coefficients, and is the wind erosion half-life (s -1 ).

[0109] Rw(t) in the above formula 3 is calculated by the following formula:

[0110] ;

[0111] wherein RC m is the wind erosion coefficient, is the wind erosion half-life (s -1 ).

[0112] Step S 23 , determining whether the sum of the ground exposure dose and the resuspension inhalation exposure dose exceeds the acceptable limit value; if yes, taking resettlement protection measures for all the people in the grid, and evaluating the corresponding economic loss by using formula 4.

[0113] Formula 4: ;

[0114] wherein CM k is the economic cost (yuan) of taking resettlement protection measures in the grid k; P k is the population number (person) in the grid k; D is the duration of resettlement (day); I is the cost of resettlement (yuan / day-person), which includes temporary accommodation, catering, transportation, income loss, etc.

[0115] Step S 24 , adding the economic loss of each grid calculated in step S 23 to obtain the economic loss in the medium-term stage.

[0116] Step S3, evaluating the economic loss of the protection measures taken in the long-term stage after the nuclear accident.

[0117] The land in each grid in the long-term stage can be divided into non-agricultural land part and agricultural land part, and different protection measures will be taken to reduce the radiation damage to humans. The protection measures that can be taken for non-agricultural land are decontamination, post-decontamination quarantine, and abandonment of land, and the protection measures that can be taken for agricultural land are decontamination, post-decontamination quarantine, discarding crops, and abandonment of land.

[0118] Preferably, the step S3 comprises:

[0119] Step S 31 , dividing the surrounding area into a fan-shaped grid with the nuclear power plant location as the center, and defining the population number, the area proportion of agricultural land and non-agricultural land, the value of agricultural land, and the value of non-agricultural land in each grid.

[0120] For example, concentric circles are drawn with the nuclear power plant location as the center and radii of 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, and 80 km, respectively, and 22.5° of the central angle is divided into 16 azimuth sectors.

[0121] Step S 32 , determine the protective measures taken on each grid.

[0122] I. Non-agricultural land

[0123] For non-agricultural land, the habitability principle needs to be met, i.e., the sum of the ground exposure dose DG (calculated by formula 2 above) and the resuspended inhalation exposure dose DR (calculated by formula 3 above) received by personnel is less than the acceptable limit DTH. If the habitability is not met, protective measures (such as Fig. 2 indicated) need to be taken.

[0124] The protective measures taken in step S 32 for non-agricultural land or agricultural land include:

[0125] Step S 321 , determine whether the habitability is met without taking any measures; if yes, no measures need to be taken; if no, go to step S 322 .

[0126] Step S 322 , calculate the ground exposure dose DG1 and the resuspended inhalation exposure dose DR1 after taking decontamination measures, and determine whether the sum of DG1 and DR1 is less than the acceptable limit DTH; if yes, determine that decontamination measures are taken; if no, go to step S 232 .

[0127] Step S 323 , calculate the ground exposure dose DG2 and the resuspended inhalation exposure dose DR2 after taking decontamination and then sealing measures for agricultural land, and determine whether the sum of DG2 and DR2 is less than the acceptable limit DTH; if yes, determine that decontamination and then sealing measures are taken; if no, go to step S 324 .

[0128] Step S 324 , increase the sealing time until the sum of DG2 and DR2 is less than the acceptable limit DTH, and determine the sealing time; if the non-agricultural land cannot meet the habitability even after decontamination and then sealing for 30 years, give up the land.

[0129] In other words, if habitability is still not met after decontamination, the ground radiation dose (DG2) and resuspension inhalation radiation dose (DR2) after implementing decontamination followed by enclosure measures on farmland are calculated, with the enclosure period starting from one year. If the sum of DG2 and DR2 is still greater than DTH after one year, the enclosure period is increased until it decreases to less than DTH (the upper limit for enclosure is 30 years), thus determining the enclosure period. If habitability is met after decontamination and enclosure (enclosure period less than or equal to 30 years), it is determined that decontamination and enclosure measures are implemented.

[0130] II. Farmland

[0131] For farmland, the first requirement is that it meets the criteria for habitation. The criteria for judgment and the measures that can be taken are the same as those for non-farmland, and will not be elaborated further.

[0132] like Fig. 3 As shown, if farmland is habitable, it is also necessary to ensure that the concentration of nuclides on the surface is less than the prescribed threshold; otherwise, the farmland must be shut down (closed off).

[0133] Preferably, step S 32 For farmland, in addition to meeting the requirements for habitability, it is also necessary to ensure that the concentration of nuclides on the surface is below a prescribed threshold, which specifically includes:

[0134] Step S 321’ 1. Calculate the sum of the ratios of each nuclide concentration to the threshold concentration within the grid at the initial time (YRS=0) using Formula 5; determine if RS is greater than 1; if so, proceed to step S. 322’ If not, then the concentration requirement is met, and there is no need to shut down farmland.

[0135] Formula 5: ;

[0136] Where RS represents the sum of the ratios of the concentrations of each nuclide to the threshold concentrations after YRS of farmland cessation of production; GC i The surface activity concentration of nuclide i (Bq / m³) 2 ); The decay constant of nuclide i (yr) -1 ); GCMAX i The surface activity concentration limit (Bq / m³) for nuclide i 2 ).

[0137] Step S 322’ To restrict agricultural production, the shutdown period YRS is initially assumed to be 1 year, and RS is calculated using formula 5. Then, it is determined whether RS ​​is greater than 1; if so, proceed to step S. 323’ If not, proceed to step S. 324’ .

[0138] Step S323’ , increase the shutdown time by 1 year, calculate RS by substituting into formula 5, continue to determine whether RS is greater than 1; if yes, go to step S 325’ ; if no, go to step S 324’ .

[0139] Step S 324’ , meet the concentration requirement, determine the time of stopping production of farmland.

[0140] Step S 325’ , continue to increase the shutdown time until RS is not greater than 1; if the shutdown time is 8 years and RS is still greater than 1, directly give up the farmland.

[0141] If the farmland is determined to take the sealing measure (the sealing time is less than or equal to 30 years) to meet the habitability, and is also determined to need sealing to meet the concentration limit value requirement of the nuclide, the time is YRS (less than or equal to 8) years, then the sealing time is the maximum value of the two times.

[0142] Step S 33 , calculate the economic loss corresponding to each protection measure in the long-term stage.

[0143] I. Non-farmland

[0144] The protection measures that can be taken for non-farmland are: decontamination, sealing after decontamination, and giving up non-farmland.

[0145] Preferably, the calculation of the economic loss corresponding to each protection measure in the long-term stage for non-farmland in step S 33 includes:

[0146] When the protection measure is decontamination or sealing after decontamination, the economic loss is calculated by formula 6.

[0147] Formula 6: ;

[0148] When the protection measure is giving up non-farmland, the cost generated is the sum of personnel evacuation cost and the value of non-farmland itself, and the economic loss is calculated by formula 7.

[0149] Formula 7: ;

[0150] Wherein, CLNF represents the total cost (yuan) incurred by non-agricultural land protection measures on the grid; CDNF represents the per capita decontamination cost (yuan / person); CRNF represents the per capita cost of evacuation during decontamination or lockdown (yuan / person); CCNF represents the per capita cost (yuan / person) of compensation for depreciation, loss, and depreciation caused by long-term non-use of goods during decontamination or lockdown; P represents the population on the grid (persons); CLCNF represents the cost of abandoning non-agricultural land (yuan); and VALWNF is the value of non-agricultural property in the area (yuan / person). CCNF in the above formula can be obtained by subtracting the per capita property value at the time of restoration of habitability from the per capita value of non-agricultural land property at the time of the accident. The latter can be divided into the value of the land itself and the value of the improved property (such as commercial areas, school districts, residential areas, etc.), calculated using the following formula:

[0151]

[0152] Among them, CCNF is the per capita cost (yuan / person) caused by the depreciation, loss, and depreciation of items due to long-term non-use during the decontamination or closure period; VALWNF is the value of the property at the time of the accident (yuan / person); VALWPINF is the value of the improved property when habitability is restored (yuan / person); and VALWPLNF is the value of the land itself when habitability is restored (yuan / person).

[0153] The calculation of VALWPINF takes into account depreciation losses and investment return losses. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0154]

[0155] The calculation of VALWPLNF takes into account the loss of investment return, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0156]

[0157] Wherein, VALWNF represents the value of non-agricultural property in the region (yuan / person), FIMNF represents the proportion of improved property value, and RDPNF represents the depreciation rate (s). -1 ), TH represents the time of residency for non-agricultural property to return to normalcy (s), and RIRNF represents the inflation-adjusted rate of return on investment (s). -1 ).

[0158] After rearranging the above calculation formula, we can obtain:

[0159]

[0160] II. Farmland

[0161] To ensure that people can work normally on farmland, the land needs to be guaranteed habitability, just like non-farmland.

[0162] Preferably, the step S 33 The economic loss of each protection measure in the long-term stage is calculated for farmland, including:

[0163] When the protection measure is decontamination and decontamination followed by quarantine, the economic loss is calculated using formula 8.

[0164] Formula 8: ;

[0165] Wherein, CLF represents the total cost of farmland protection measures on the grid (yuan); CDF is the area average decontamination cost (yuan / square meter), CCF is the cost of depreciation, loss and depreciation caused by long-term non-use of goods during decontamination or quarantine (yuan / square meter), FPF is the cost of crops that need to be discarded during farmland quarantine (yuan / square meter), and AF is the area of farmland on the grid (square meter).

[0166] The calculation method of CCF in the above formula 8 is consistent with CCNF, and the calculation formula is:

[0167]

[0168] Wherein, VALWF is the value of farmland property in the region (yuan / square meter); FIMF is the proportion of improved property value; RDPF is the depreciation rate (s -1 ); TF is the maximum value of the time required for farmland to return to habitable and the time of production stoppage (s); and RIRF is the inflation-adjusted investment return rate (s -1 ).

[0169] When the protection measure is to abandon farmland, the economic loss is the value of the farmland itself CLCF.

[0170] Step S 34 , determine the economy of the protection measures on the grid.

[0171] Preferably, the step S 34 includes:

[0172] Step S 341 , according to the abandoned non-farmland cost CLCNF and the abandoned farmland cost CLCF calculated in the step S 33 ; for non-farmland, determine whether CLNF is greater than CLCNF; if so, it is considered that it is not cost-effective to take the protection measures, then the non-farmland is abandoned, and the final cost is CLCNF; if not, the final cost is CLNF.

[0173] Step S 342For farmland, it is judged whether CLF is greater than CLCF; if yes, it is considered that taking protective measures is not cost-effective, the farmland is abandoned, and the final cost is CLCF; if no, the final cost is CLF.

[0174] Step S 343 The total cost on the grid is MIN (CLNF, CLCNF) + MIN (CLF, CLCF).

[0175] Step S 35 The step S 34 The economic loss of each grid calculated is added to obtain the economic loss in the long-term stage.

[0176] Step S4, estimate the economic loss caused by the nuclear accident.

[0177] The application also provides a post-nuclear accident off-site economic loss evaluation system, which adopts the post-nuclear accident off-site economic loss evaluation method as described above; the post-nuclear accident off-site economic loss evaluation system comprises:

[0178] The nuclear accident early stage evaluation model is used to evaluate the economic loss of the protective measures taken in the early stage of the nuclear accident. The nuclear accident middle stage evaluation model is used to evaluate the economic loss of the protective measures taken in the middle stage of the nuclear accident. The nuclear accident long-term stage evaluation model is used to evaluate the economic loss of the protective measures taken in the long-term stage of the nuclear accident.

[0179] The application also provides an electronic device comprising a processor and a memory, wherein the memory stores programs or instructions executable on the processor, and the programs or instructions are executed by the processor to realize the post-nuclear accident off-site economic loss evaluation method as described above.

[0180] The application also provides a readable storage medium, wherein the readable storage medium stores programs or instructions, and the programs or instructions are executed by a processor to realize the post-nuclear accident off-site economic loss evaluation method as described above.

[0181] According to the above description, the post-nuclear accident off-site economic loss evaluation method has the following characteristics:

[0182] I. A phased dynamic evaluation system: special evaluation models are designed for different stages of the early, middle and long-term stages after the accident.

[0183] II. Fine management technology using grid: the surrounding area is dynamically divided into grids with the nuclear power plant as the center, and key parameters such as population, land type and dose data are independently calculated for each grid to accurately locate the affected area.

[0184] III. Economic cost calculation model: A detailed economic cost calculation model of protective measures is established, covering key cost items: decontamination cost, evacuation cost, depreciation cost due to long-term non-use of goods, loss, depreciation cost, land and property value loss, crop disposal cost, etc.

[0185] IV. Economic optimization mechanism of protective measures: The appropriate protective measures are selected by comprehensively considering the dose and economic cost, and the more economical measures are selected to avoid resource waste caused by excessive protection.

[0186] The above disclosure of the application is only as an example and does not constitute a limitation on the application. Although it is not explicitly stated here, those skilled in the art can make various modifications, improvements and corrections to the application. Such modifications, improvements and corrections are suggested in the application, so such modifications, improvements and corrections still belong to the spirit and scope of the exemplary embodiments of the application.

[0187] At the same time, specific words are used in the application to describe the embodiments of the application. As "one embodiment", "an embodiment", and / or "some embodiments" means a certain feature, structure or characteristic related to at least one embodiment of the application. Therefore, it should be emphasized and noted that the "an embodiment" or "one embodiment" or "an alternative embodiment" mentioned in different places in the specification does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment. In addition, some features, structures or characteristics in one or more embodiments of the application can be properly combined.

[0188] Some aspects of the application can be completely executed by hardware, completely executed by software (including firmware, resident software, microcode, etc.), or executed by a combination of hardware and software. The above hardware or software can be referred to as "data block", "module", "engine", "unit", "component" or "system". The processor can be one or more application specific integrated circuits (ASIC), digital signal processors (DSP), digital signal processing devices (DAPD), programmable logic devices (PLD), field programmable gate arrays (FPGA), processors, controllers, microcontrollers, microprocessors or combinations thereof. In addition, aspects of the application can be computer products located in one or more computer readable media, including computer readable program code. For example, the computer readable medium can include, but is not limited to, magnetic storage devices (such as hard disks, floppy disks, magnetic tapes…), optical discs (such as compact discs CD, digital versatile discs DVD…), smart cards and flash memory devices (such as cards, sticks, key drives…).

[0189] A computer-readable medium may contain a propagated data signal containing computer program code, for example, on baseband or as part of a carrier wave. This propagated signal may take various forms, including electromagnetic, optical, and so on, or suitable combinations thereof. A computer-readable medium can be any computer-readable medium other than a computer-readable storage medium, which can be connected to an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device to enable communication, propagation, or transmission of a program for use. The program code located on the computer-readable medium can be propagated through any suitable medium, including radio, cable, fiber optic cable, radio frequency signals, or similar media, or any combination of the above media.

[0190] Similarly, it should be noted that, in order to simplify the description of the present application and thus aid in the understanding of one or more embodiments of the invention, the foregoing description of the embodiments of the present application sometimes combines multiple features into one embodiment, drawing, or description thereof. However, this disclosure method does not imply that the subject matter of the present application requires more features than those mentioned in the claims. In fact, the number of features in an embodiment is less than all the features of a single embodiment disclosed above. Some embodiments use numbers describing the quantity of components and attributes. It should be understood that such numbers used in the description of embodiments are modified in some examples with the modifiers "approximately," "approximately," or "generally." Unless otherwise stated, "approximately," "approximately," or "generally" indicates that the number is allowed to vary by ±20%. Accordingly, in some embodiments, the numerical parameters used in the specification and claims are approximate values, which may be changed depending on the characteristics required by the individual embodiment. In some embodiments, the numerical parameters should take into account the specified significant digits and adopt a general method of digit reservation. Although the numerical ranges and parameters used to confirm their breadth of scope in some embodiments of the present application are approximate values, in specific embodiments, such values ​​are set as precisely as feasible.

[0191] While specific embodiments of the present invention have been described above, those skilled in the art should understand that these are merely illustrative examples, and the scope of protection of the present invention is defined by the appended claims. Those skilled in the art can make various changes or modifications to these embodiments without departing from the principles and essence of the present invention, but all such changes and modifications fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating economic loss outside a nuclear accident site, characterized by, The method comprises the following steps: S1, evaluating economic loss of the protection measures taken in the early stage after the nuclear accident; S2, evaluating economic loss of the protection measures taken in the middle stage after the nuclear accident; S3, evaluating economic loss of the protection measures taken in the long-term stage after the nuclear accident; S4, estimating economic loss caused by the nuclear accident.

2. The method for evaluating economic loss after a nuclear accident according to claim 1, characterized by, The step S1 comprises: S 11 , dividing the area around the nuclear power plant into a plurality of fan-shaped grids with the nuclear power plant as the center; defining the number of people in each grid according to the population distribution around the nuclear power plant, and defining the protective measures so that each grid corresponds to one protective measure; S 12 , the economic loss of each grid is obtained by using formula 1 to evaluate the economic loss of the protection measures corresponding to each grid in the step S 11 . Formula 1: where CE k,j represents the economic cost of taking protective measure j on grid k; P k represents the population of grid k; D j represents the duration of taking measure j; I j represents the cost per person per day of measure j; S 13 , the step S 12 The economic loss of each grid calculated is added to obtain the economic loss in the early stage.

3. The method for evaluating economic loss after a nuclear accident according to claim 2, characterized by, The step S 11 Comprise: with nuclear power plant location as the center, respectively with 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80km as the radius to draw concentric circles, combine 22.5 ° of the equal division circle center angle and divide 360 ° into 16 azimuth sectors.

4. The method for evaluating economic loss after a nuclear accident according to claim 1, wherein The step S2 comprises: S 21 , dividing the area around the nuclear power plant into a plurality of fan-shaped grids with the nuclear power plant as the center; defining the population on each grid according to the population distribution around the nuclear power plant; S 22 The ground surface exposure dose and the resuspended inhalation exposure dose in each grid are calculated by Equations 2 and 3, respectively. Equation 2: Equation 3: where DG represents the ground surface exposure dose; GC i represents the ground surface concentration of nuclide i; DFG i represents the ground surface exposure dose rate conversion factor for nuclide i; SFG represents the ground surface exposure protection factor; ti and t2 represent the times at which exposure begins and ends; represents the decay constant for nuclide i; Gw(t) represents the wind erosion function; DR represents the resuspended inhalation exposure dose; BR represents the breathing rate; DFR i represents the resuspended inhalation exposure dose conversion factor for nuclide i; SFR represents the inhalation protection factor; Rw(t) represents the resuspended wind erosion function; S 23 , whether the sum of the ground exposure dose and the resuspended inhalation exposure dose exceeds an acceptable limit; if so, taking resettlement protection measures for all people in the grid, and evaluating the corresponding economic loss using Equation 4; Equation 4: where CM k is the economic cost of taking resettlement protection measures on grid k; P k is the population of grid k; D is the duration of resettlement; I is the cost of resettlement; S 24 , the step S 23 The economic losses of each grid calculated are added to obtain the economic loss in the medium-term stage.

5. The method for evaluating economic loss after a nuclear accident according to claim 4, characterized in that, The step S 21 Comprise: with nuclear power plant location as the center, respectively with 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80km as the radius to draw concentric circles, combine 22.5 ° of the equal division circle center angle and divide 360 ° into 16 azimuth sectors.

6. The method for evaluating post-nuclear accident off-site economic loss according to claim 1, wherein The step S3 comprises: S 31 , the population number, the area proportion of farmland and non-farmland, the farmland value, and the non-farmland value of each grid are defined. S 32 , determining protective measures taken on each grid; S 33 , calculate the economic loss corresponding to each protective measure in the long-term phase; S 34 , judge the economy of the protective measures on the grid; S 35 The step S 34 The economic losses of each grid calculated are added to obtain the long-term stage economic loss.

7. The method for evaluating economic loss after a nuclear accident according to claim 6, characterized by, The step S 32 The protective measures taken for non-agricultural land or agricultural land include: S 321 , determine whether habitability is satisfied without taking any measures; if yes, no measures need to be taken; if no, go to step S 322 ; S 322 , the ground exposure dose DG1 and the resuspended inhalation exposure dose DR1 are calculated, and it is determined whether the sum of DG1 and DR1 is less than the acceptable limit DTH; if so, it is determined that decontamination measures are taken; if not, step S 232 is entered. S 323 , calculate the ground exposure dose DG2 and the resuspended inhalation exposure dose DR2 after the decontamination and then the prohibition measures are taken on the farmland, determine whether the sum of DG2 and DR2 is less than the acceptable limit DTH; if yes, determine that the decontamination and then the prohibition measures are taken; if no, go to step S 324 ; S 324 , increase the confinement time until the sum of DG2 and DR2 is less than the acceptable limit DTH, determine the confinement time; if the non-agricultural land cannot meet the habitability after decontamination and 30 years of confinement, give up the land.

8. The method for evaluating economic loss after a nuclear accident according to claim 6, wherein The step S 32 For farmland, in addition to meeting the habitability of personnel, it is also necessary to ensure that the radionuclide concentration of the surface is less than the specified threshold, which specifically includes: S 321’ , the sum RS of the ratio of the concentration of each nuclide in the grid to the threshold concentration at the initial time is calculated by using formula 5; it is judged whether RS is greater than 1; if yes, step S 322’ is entered; if no, the concentration requirement is met, and the farmland does not need to be stopped for production; Equation 5: ; wherein RS represents the sum of the ratios of the concentrations of each nuclide to the threshold concentration after YRS years of non-use of the farmland; GC i represents the surface activity concentration of nuclide i; is the decay constant of nuclide i; GCMAX i represents the surface activity concentration limit value of nuclide i; S 322’ , limit the farmland production, stop production time YRS first assumed to be 1 year, into the formula 5 to calculate RS; again to determine whether RS is greater than 1; if yes, go to step S 323’ ; if not, go to step S 324’ ; S 323’ , increase the shutdown time by 1 year, calculate RS by substituting into formula 5, continue to judge whether RS is greater than 1; if yes, go to step S 325’ ; if no, go to step S 324’ ; S 324’ , meet the concentration requirements, determine the time of farmland land production stop; S 325’ , continue to increase the time of non-production until RS is not greater than 1; if the time of non-production is 8 years or more and RS is still greater than 1, then the farmland is abandoned.

9. The method for evaluating economic loss after a nuclear accident according to claim 6, wherein The step S 33 In the non-agricultural land, the economic loss corresponding to each protection measure in the long-term stage is calculated. When the protection measure is decontamination and decontamination after sealing, the economic loss is calculated by formula 6; Equation 6: ; When the protection measure is abandonment of non-agricultural land, the economic loss is calculated by formula 7; Equation 7: ; Wherein, CLNF represents the total cost of the protection measures for non-agricultural land on the grid; CDNF represents the per capita decontamination cost; CRNF represents the per capita cost of evacuating personnel during decontamination or sealing; CCNF represents the per capita cost of depreciation, loss, and depreciation caused by long-term non-use of goods during decontamination or sealing; P represents the population on the grid; CLCNF represents the cost of abandoning non-agricultural land; VALWNF is the value of non-agricultural property in the region.

10. The method for evaluating post-nuclear accident off-site economic loss according to claim 6, wherein The step S 33 In the case of farmland, the economic loss corresponding to each protective measure in the long-term stage is calculated, including: When the protection measure is decontamination and decontamination after sealing, the economic loss is calculated by formula 8; Equation 8: ; Wherein, CLF represents the total cost of the protection measures for agricultural land on the grid; CDF is the area average decontamination cost, CCF is the per capita cost of depreciation, loss, and depreciation caused by long-term non-use of goods during decontamination or sealing, FPF is the cost of crops that need to be discarded during agricultural sealing, and AF is the area of agricultural land on the grid; When the protection measure is abandonment of agricultural land, the economic loss is the value of the agricultural land itself CLCF.

11. The method for evaluating economic loss after a nuclear accident according to claim 6, wherein The step S 34 comprises: S 341 , the cost of abandoning non-agricultural land CLCNF and the cost of abandoning agricultural land CLCF calculated in the step S 33 ; for non-agricultural land, it is judged whether CLNF is greater than CLCNF; if yes, the non-agricultural land is abandoned, and the final cost is CLCNF; if no, the final cost is CLNF. S 342 For farmland, determine whether CLF is greater than CLCF; if yes, abandon the farmland, and the final cost is CLCF; if no, the final cost is CLF. S 343 The total cost on the grid is MIN (CLNF, CLCNF) + MIN (CLF, CLCF).

12. A system for evaluating off-site economic loss after a nuclear accident, characterized by, The system for evaluating economic loss outside the scene after a nuclear accident adopts the method for evaluating economic loss outside the scene after a nuclear accident according to any one of claims 1-11. The system for evaluating economic loss outside the scene after a nuclear accident comprises: An early stage evaluation model for a nuclear accident, configured to evaluate economic loss of the protection measures taken in the early stage after the nuclear accident; A middle stage evaluation model for a nuclear accident, configured to evaluate economic loss of the protection measures taken in the middle stage after the nuclear accident; A long-term stage evaluation model for a nuclear accident, configured to evaluate economic loss of the protection measures taken in the long-term stage after the nuclear accident.

13. An electronic device, comprising: The electronic device comprises a processor and a memory, wherein the memory stores programs or instructions that can be run on the processor, and the programs or instructions are executed by the processor to realize the method for evaluating economic loss outside the scene after a nuclear accident according to any one of claims 1-11.

14. A readable storage medium, characterized by, The readable storage medium stores programs or instructions, and the programs or instructions are executed by the processor to realize the method for evaluating economic loss outside the scene after a nuclear accident according to any one of claims 1-11.

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