A method and system for constructing an investment risk assessment index system

Abstract

This invention discloses a method and system for constructing an investment risk assessment index system. The method includes obtaining basic data for constructing the target index system through relevant literature retrieval in a literature database; identifying investment risk factors by using a risk factor identification model to perform routine project risk factor identification on the basic data; mining risk factors for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects based on preset criteria and marine characteristic data; and determining investment risk assessment indicators based on the investment risk factors and the offshore photovoltaic power generation project risk factors. This invention can consider the characteristics of photovoltaic power generation projects and the features of the marine environment, and construct a scientific, systematic, applicable, and comprehensive investment risk assessment index system for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects according to principles.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of indicator system construction technology, and in particular to a method and system for constructing an investment risk assessment indicator system. Background Technology

[0002] A review of the current state of photovoltaic (PV) power generation and an analysis of the demand and characteristics of offshore PV power generation in coastal areas are fundamental to constructing an investment risk assessment index system for offshore PV power generation projects. Constructing an investment risk assessment index system that aligns with the specific characteristics of offshore PV power generation projects, taking into account both the project's features and the environmental characteristics of coastal areas, is a crucial prerequisite for effective investment risk assessment.

[0003] Solar energy, generated by solar radiation, is the source of light and heat on Earth. It is abundant, requires no transportation, and has low environmental pollution. Humans have a long history of utilizing solar energy, such as using mirrors to focus sunlight for starting fires or using solar energy to make salt and dry fish. In modern society, the use of solar energy has become increasingly widespread, taking the forms of solar thermal utilization, solar photovoltaic utilization, and solar photochemical utilization. Among these, solar photovoltaic utilization, commonly known as solar photovoltaic power generation, refers to a method of power generation that uses the photovoltaic effect of photovoltaic semiconductor materials to convert solar energy into direct current electricity. In recent years, with countries around the world actively promoting the application of renewable energy, the photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly, with the amount of photovoltaic power generated connected to the grid increasing at a rate of 60% annually. The main forms of solar photovoltaic power generation include ground-mounted centralized photovoltaic power generation, rooftop distributed photovoltaic power generation, river and canal distributed photovoltaic power generation, and floating photovoltaic power generation.

[0004] Offshore photovoltaic (PV) power generation developed earlier overseas, and there are already many successful cases. The UK was one of the first countries to explore floating offshore PV technology. As early as 2005, UK designer Philpoli proposed the idea of ​​installing solar photovoltaic panels at sea, designing a mesh of solar panels floating on the sea surface using a floating device. These panels could be interconnected to form a large-scale PV power generation system. In 2007, the US company SPG built a 400kW floating solar PV pilot project in California. After four years of refinement, the company launched a commercial offshore floating solar PV array in 2011, installed in the nearshore waters of Sonoma County. The system is connected to the power grid via cables laid on the seabed. This project has an installed capacity of 12.5MW and was completed and put into operation in 2016. India's National Hydroelectric Power plans to build the world's largest offshore floating PV power plant in southern Kerala, India, and the Kolkata offshore floating solar PV power generation project, used as a pilot project, was announced as completed in January 2016. Japan, a country with scarce land resources, faces immense pressure to maintain its energy supply, prompting it to focus on developing new forms of power generation. After several years of development, Japan has become the country with the most practical applications of offshore floating photovoltaic (PV) power plants in the world. Projects ranging from 1MW to 70MW have been officially connected to the grid in Kagoshima, Saitama, Hyogo, and Osaka prefectures. The Netherlands is also actively exploring offshore PV power generation. In early 2018, its central energy department officially announced the construction of a floating PV power plant at a near-shore seaweed farm in the North Sea. Once completed, this project will be able to meet the daily electricity needs of 5,000 Dutch households. From international developments, it can be seen that the development model of offshore PV power plants in various countries generally follows a pattern of enterprise leadership, government support, and technological support. The scale of power plants is trending towards larger sizes, and the level of commercialization is gradually increasing. Under the global trend of building an energy internet, offshore PV power generation projects will have excellent investment prospects.

[0005] Compared to the countries mentioned above, such as the United States, Japan, and India, which have already seen their offshore photovoltaic (PV) power plants operational, my country has paid less attention to offshore PV power generation. Currently, floating PV power plants are mainly built on lakes and rivers. In recent years, various forms of floating PV power plants have emerged in Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces. Typical projects already connected to the grid include the 49MW Shuguang Huitai fishery-solar complementary PV power generation project in Hekou District, Dongying, Shandong; the 100MW fishery-solar complementary PV power generation project in Dajiangdong Industrial Cluster Area, Hangzhou, Zhejiang; the 30MW fishery-solar complementary PV power generation projects in Ganduo, Gaoyou, Jiangsu and the 108MW fishery-solar complementary PV power generation projects in Liubao, Baoying, Jiangsu; the 108MW fishery-solar complementary PV power generation project in Yanyangtian Town, Liubao Town, Baoying, Jiangsu; and the 100MW fishery-solar complementary PV power generation project in Feidong, Hefei, Anhui. Projects under construction or planned include the 300MW floating PV power generation project in Tongwei, Zibo, Shandong and the 1GW floating PV power generation project in Jining, Shandong. However, despite its late start, offshore PV power generation projects are gradually gaining popularity in the energy sector and becoming a choice for Chinese investors. For example, the first phase of the 30MW Zhuyu offshore photovoltaic power generation project in Zhangpu, Fujian, which began construction in October 2016, was completed and put into operation in July 2017, officially achieving grid connection and power generation. Another example is the 99MW fishery-solar complementary offshore photovoltaic power generation project in Shepantu, Zhejiang, which officially went into operation in June 2017, with an estimated annual power generation of approximately 100 million kilowatt-hours, saving 30,000 tons of standard coal annually and reducing carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions by approximately 80,000 tons, demonstrating significant environmental protection benefits. It can be seen that my country's offshore photovoltaic power generation industry is still in its initial development stage and is some distance from large-scale development. However, with industrial development, technological progress, and the energy demands driven by socio-economic growth, as well as my country's medium- and long-term strategic plan to increase the proportion of new energy sources to 50%, large-scale development of offshore photovoltaic power generation in my country's coastal areas will become an inevitable trend in my country's energy sector.

[0006] Therefore, a precise indicator system construction method is needed for risk assessment. Summary of the Invention

[0007] The present invention aims to at least partially solve one of the technical problems in the related art.

[0008] To this end, this invention proposes a method for constructing an investment risk assessment index system. A reasonable index system helps investors understand the sources of risk in investment projects and provides a basis for measurement in subsequent investment risk assessment and analysis, thereby enabling the development of targeted investment risk control strategies and achieving the goal of effectively carrying out investment risk control activities.

[0009] Another objective of this invention is to propose a system for constructing an investment risk assessment index system.

[0010] To achieve the above objectives, this invention proposes a method for constructing an investment risk assessment index system, comprising:

[0011] The basic data for constructing the target indicator system was obtained by searching relevant literature in the literature database.

[0012] Investment risk factors are obtained by using a risk factor identification model to identify routine project risk factors from the aforementioned basic data.

[0013] Risk factors for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects are mined based on preset criteria and marine characteristic data.

[0014] Investment risk assessment indicators are determined based on the aforementioned investment risk factors and the aforementioned risk factors of offshore photovoltaic power generation projects.

[0015] The investment risk assessment index system construction method of this invention also has the following basic features:

[0016] In one embodiment of the present invention, the basic data for constructing the target indicator system is obtained by searching relevant literature in a literature database, including:

[0017] Relevant literature was searched using CNKI and Elsevier databases, covering investment risk research, photovoltaic power generation research, and marine environmental research, in order to obtain the search data;

[0018] The retrieved data will be used as the basis for constructing the target indicator system.

[0019] In one embodiment of the present invention, the investment risk factors include: economic risk, technological risk, environmental risk, and market risk.

[0020] In one embodiment of the present invention, risk factors for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects are mined based on preset criteria and marine feature data, including:

[0021] Obtain language information from personnel engaged in photovoltaic power generation and offshore wind power, and analyze the language information to determine the risk factors of the initial photovoltaic power generation project;

[0022] By conducting case studies and data analysis, risk factors for intermediate photovoltaic power generation projects can be extracted based on the analysis results.

[0023] By integrating the risk factors of the initial photovoltaic power generation project and the risk factors of the intermediate photovoltaic power generation project, the determined risk factors for the offshore photovoltaic power generation project are obtained.

[0024] In one embodiment of the present invention, the economic risks include initial investment risk, operation and maintenance cost risk, debt repayment ability risk, and profitability risk.

[0025] In one embodiment of the present invention, the technical risks include equipment selection risks, grid connection technology risks, photovoltaic array design risks, floating support design risks, and site selection risks.

[0026] In one embodiment of the present invention, the environmental risks include policy support risks, solar energy resource risks, marine environmental risks, and ecological damage risks.

[0027] In one embodiment of the present invention, the market risk includes electricity demand risk, market competition risk, and grid access risk.

[0028] In one embodiment of the present invention, after determining the investment risk assessment indicators based on the investment risk factors and the risk factors of the offshore photovoltaic power generation project, the method further includes:

[0029] Based on the data from the second round of expert opinion surveys, the investment risk assessment indicators were modified by adding and deleting items, resulting in the modified indicators.

[0030] The modified indicators are divided into hierarchical categories to obtain the final investment risk assessment indicator system for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects.

[0031] To achieve the above objectives, this invention proposes a system for constructing an investment risk assessment index system, comprising:

[0032] The literature retrieval module is used to retrieve relevant literature from the literature database to obtain the basic data for constructing the target indicator system.

[0033] The routine risk identification module is used to identify investment risk factors by using a risk factor identification model to perform routine project risk factor identification on the basic data.

[0034] The photovoltaic risk identification module is used to mine risk factors for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects based on preset criteria and marine characteristic data.

[0035] The investment risk indicator construction module is used to determine investment risk assessment indicators based on the investment risk factors and the risk factors of the offshore photovoltaic power generation project.

[0036] This invention presents a method and system for constructing an investment risk assessment index system. It analyzes the current status of offshore photovoltaic (PV) power generation both domestically and internationally, identifies factors affecting the investment returns of offshore PV power generation projects in my country, and then constructs an investment risk assessment index system for offshore PV power generation projects. Analysis of the current development status of offshore PV power generation reveals that policy, technology, market, and environmental factors significantly influence project investment returns.

[0037] Additional aspects and advantages of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention. Attached Figure Description

[0038] The above and / or additional aspects and advantages of the present invention will become apparent and readily understood from the following description of the embodiments taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, wherein:

[0039] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of a method for constructing an investment risk assessment index system according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0040] Figure 2 This is a logic diagram for constructing an investment risk assessment indicator system according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0041] Figure 3 This is a diagram illustrating the investment risk assessment index system for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0042] Figure 4 This is a system structure diagram for constructing an investment risk assessment index system according to an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0043] It should be noted that, unless otherwise specified, the embodiments and features described in the present invention can be combined with each other. The present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0044] To enable those skilled in the art to better understand the present invention, the technical solutions of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings of the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0045] The following describes, with reference to the accompanying drawings, a method and system for constructing an investment risk assessment index system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0046] The method for constructing the investment risk assessment index system in this invention embodiment is as follows: Figure 1 As shown, it includes:

[0047] S1, obtain the basic data for constructing the target indicator system by searching relevant literature in the literature database;

[0048] S2, using a risk factor identification model to identify investment risk factors from the basic data through routine project risk factor identification;

[0049] S3, risk factors for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects are mined based on preset criteria and marine feature data;

[0050] S4. Determine investment risk assessment indicators based on the investment risk factors and the risk factors of the offshore photovoltaic power generation project.

[0051] It is understandable that establishing a risk assessment indicator system is fundamental when conducting investment risk assessments for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects, and the quality of the selected indicators is crucial to the assessment results. Furthermore, different target projects have different focuses in their investment risk assessments; therefore, the constructed indicator system should not be a simple accumulation of indicators, but rather one that is organically related. This invention considers the characteristics of photovoltaic power generation projects and the features of the marine environment, and constructs a scientific, systematic, applicable, and comprehensive investment risk assessment indicator system for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects based on the following principles.

[0052] (1) Scientific Feasibility Principle. When constructing an indicator system, scientific rationality must be fully considered. Scientific and reasonable methods should be used to select investment risk assessment indicators, ensuring that the meaning of the indicators is scientifically clear. At the same time, the construction of the indicator system also needs to fully consider the possibility of obtaining quantitative data for the indicators. The meaning and evaluation criteria of the indicators can be determined through existing literature, and data for each indicator can be obtained using relevant statistical data. If obtaining data for a certain indicator is too difficult and costly in practice, then the operability of that indicator is questionable. Therefore, the selection of indicators must respect objective reality and ensure scientific feasibility.

[0053] (2) The principle of systematic comprehensiveness. Investment decisions for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects are complex issues involving numerous factors such as policy, technology, environment, and market. Therefore, when constructing a risk assessment indicator system, it is necessary to start from the overall picture, use a systematic perspective to grasp the overall situation, and comprehensively and objectively reflect the risk factors of investment decisions for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects. In addition, when constructing an investment risk assessment indicator system, it is necessary to consider the characteristics and requirements of different stages of offshore photovoltaic power generation projects, forming a risk assessment that covers the entire life cycle of the project. Comprehensiveness does not mean that the more indicators the better or that they are simply piled up, but rather that a hierarchical and coordinated investment risk assessment indicator system is constructed while ensuring that the indicators do not overlap.

[0054] (3) Principle of Specific Applicability. An indicator system is an objective description of the essence and constituent elements of the evaluation object. Its service target is a specific evaluation activity under specific conditions. Only a targeted indicator system can be applicable to a specific evaluation object. Therefore, when selecting investment risk assessment indicators, the object and purpose of the risk assessment should be clearly defined to ensure targeted analysis and screening. The investment risk assessment problem studied in this invention is carried out under the specific conditions of photovoltaic power generation projects and the marine environment. Therefore, a specialized indicator system should be constructed following the principle of specific applicability to ensure the high-quality completion of the investment risk assessment work.

[0055] This invention addresses the timing of risk assessments for offshore photovoltaic (PV) power generation projects, considering their technical and environmental characteristics and the fact that such assessments are conducted before investment decisions are made. It employs a combined approach of literature review, case study, and questionnaire survey to construct an investment risk assessment index system for offshore PV power generation projects. The specific design involves: first, conducting a literature review; second, identifying risk factors for conventional PV projects; third, identifying risk factors for offshore PV projects; and finally, selecting and determining investment risk assessment indicators, such as… Figure 2 As shown.

[0056] (1) Literature Review. Domestic and foreign scholars have conducted extensive research on topics such as investment risk, decision analysis, and photovoltaic power generation, which provides valuable reference materials for the research topic of this invention. This invention conducts relevant literature searches through databases such as CNKI and Elsevier, covering investment risk research, photovoltaic power generation research, and marine environment research, which serve as the literature basis for constructing the target indicator system of this invention.

[0057] (2) Identification of risk factors for conventional investment projects. Analyzing the factors affecting investment return risk is the core content of constructing the indicator system of this invention. Therefore, based on a large collection of domestic and foreign literature, this invention classifies and integrates risk factors and performs frequency statistics to summarize general investment risk assessment indicators. Among them, market risk, environmental risk, and technological risk occur most frequently and therefore need to be given special consideration.

[0058] (3) Risk Factor Identification for Offshore Photovoltaic Projects. The development of my country's photovoltaic industry is currently highly dependent on policy. Furthermore, photovoltaic power generation projects in marine environments possess unique characteristics. Therefore, this stage requires identifying risk factors for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects by combining external policies with marine characteristics. This involves methods such as questionnaires, interviews, and case studies. Questionnaires were used to consult experts and scholars in the field of photovoltaic power generation projects. Based on their academic research experience, risk factors specific to offshore photovoltaic projects were added to the standard list of investment project risk factors. Interviews were conducted directly with personnel engaged in photovoltaic power generation and offshore wind power, providing their understanding and insights into investment risk assessment indicators for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects based on their practical project experience. In addition, this invention extracts investment risk factors for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects through case research and analysis, providing a practical basis for constructing a risk assessment indicator system. Due to the unique characteristics of offshore photovoltaic power generation projects, analyzing only general literature is insufficient to obtain targeted results. Specific population surveys and project research can uncover investment risk factors specific to offshore photovoltaic projects, playing a crucial role in improving the investment risk assessment indicator system for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects.

[0059] (4) Screening and determination of investment risk assessment indicators. Through the steps of refining, analyzing and improving the investment risk assessment indicators for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects, a preliminary indicator system was established. Subsequently, based on two rounds of expert opinion surveys and interviews, appropriate additions and deletions were made to the risk assessment indicators, and the indicator system was divided into hierarchical levels, ultimately resulting in a clear and reasonable investment risk assessment indicator system for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects.

[0060] Furthermore, economic feasibility is undoubtedly the fundamental criterion for measuring the success or failure of a project. Only when a project is profitable can investors obtain a return on their investment. The possibility that investors may not be able to obtain returns during the investment and construction of offshore photovoltaic power generation due to economic and financial reasons is called economic risk, which mainly includes initial investment risk, operation and maintenance cost risk, debt repayment ability risk, and profitability risk.

[0061] (1) Initial investment risk

[0062] Initial investment risk refers to the uncertainty surrounding the project's return on investment resulting from the total amount of actual funds invested by the investor to ensure the project reaches its designed power generation capacity and commences normal operation. The initial investment for offshore photovoltaic (PV) power generation projects mainly includes equipment purchase costs, installation costs, construction costs, contingency funds, and construction period interest. Exceeding the budget for any one or more of these costs can put significant pressure on the investor's finances, potentially leading to a cash shortage. To address the unique characteristics of the marine environment, offshore PV power generation projects require high-performance photovoltaic panels and involve more complex design and manufacturing processes, resulting in higher equipment purchase costs compared to ground-based solar PV projects. Furthermore, the construction process for the floating support structure of offshore PV systems is more complex.

[0063] The installation of underwater solar power projects requires specialized construction equipment such as ships and pile hammers, resulting in high costs. The stringent requirements for construction techniques and specialized equipment in underwater cables also increase the financial burden on initial project investments. Therefore, investors in offshore solar power projects need to consider the economic risks associated with their initial investment.

[0064] Operation and maintenance cost risk refers to the uncertainty caused by the operating and maintenance costs required during the project's operation and maintenance phase, affecting the project's investment returns. Offshore photovoltaic (PV) power generation projects enter formal operation after trial operation following construction. Their operation and maintenance costs refer to the expenses incurred in maintaining photovoltaic equipment and other electrical equipment during the power generation phase, and constitute a significant component of the total life-cycle cost of an offshore PV power generation project. It is estimated that the operation and maintenance costs of offshore PV power generation projects are approximately 10 times higher than those of other conventional fossil fuel power generation projects. Furthermore, due to factors such as sea salt corrosion and sea wind erosion, photovoltaic equipment is prone to deformation, metal corrosion, and material aging in the marine environment, causing maintenance costs to gradually increase with the project's operational years, thus posing a risk to the investment returns of offshore PV power generation projects.

[0065] Debt repayment ability risk refers to the uncertainty of the expected returns for investors caused by a project's debt repayment ability. Debt repayment ability refers to a project's ability to repay long-term and short-term debts, mainly used to observe the principal and interest repayment ability of investment project loans and the source of funds. Compared with onshore photovoltaic power generation projects, offshore photovoltaic power generation projects require more investment in plant construction and operation and maintenance, and loans account for a larger proportion of project investment, thus facing greater debt repayment risk. Reasonably assessing the project's debt repayment risk is conducive to ensuring the smooth fundraising of project funds and the smooth operation of production activities. The debt repayment ability risk of offshore photovoltaic power generation projects is mainly analyzed through financial indicators such as the debt-to-equity ratio, loan repayment period, and current ratio.

[0066] (4) Profitability risk

[0067] Profitability risk refers to the uncertainty of future returns for investors due to the project's future profitability. While offshore solar power projects bear the important mission of green power generation, profitability remains the ultimate goal of investment. Therefore, if a project consistently operates at a loss, relying solely on government subsidies, it will inevitably suffer losses of invested capital. In other words, the strength of profitability is crucial for the long-term successful implementation of offshore solar power projects. Profitability refers to the ability of an offshore solar power project to generate profits through reasonable operation, mainly reflected in the investment payback period and internal rate of return (IRR). Investors can analyze the project's future profitability by calculating its financial indicators, assessing its ability to cope with corresponding economic risks, and deciding whether to invest in offshore solar power projects.

[0068] The technological risks of offshore photovoltaic (PV) power generation projects refer to the technical problems encountered in the process of converting solar energy into electricity. The PV industry is a technology-intensive industry, and its investment and construction require advanced technology as support; technological reliability is the fundamental guarantee of its investment success. In the investment and construction of offshore PV power generation projects, technological risks refer to the possibility of losses to project investment and operation due to technological defects or deficiencies. These mainly include equipment selection risks, grid connection technology risks, PV array design risks, floating support design risks, and site selection risks.

[0069] (1) Equipment selection risks

[0070] Equipment selection risk refers to the uncertainty of how the selection of equipment for a power generation project affects the expected returns of the investment project. Equipment selection for offshore photovoltaic (PV) power generation projects is closely related to the power generation process, and the correctness of the selection directly impacts the project's investment benefits. Equipment selection for offshore PV power generation projects mainly includes the selection of PV modules and inverters. Currently, commercially available PV modules include crystalline silicon cells, thin-film cells, and compound solar cells. Their selection requires comprehensive consideration of the module's industry form, technological maturity, operational reliability, and future technological development trends, combined with an analysis of project construction conditions and transportation infrastructure. Grid-connected inverters are also key equipment in PV power generation systems, playing a crucial role in the system's conversion efficiency and reliability. Considering the current high cost of PV power generation, excessive energy consumption by the PV modules and inverters during power generation, or inverter failure, will inevitably lead to a loss of total power generation and a decline in system economics, thus affecting the project's actual returns.

[0071] (2) Grid connection technology risks

[0072] Grid connection technology risk refers to the uncertainty in investment returns caused by the inability of a project to successfully connect to the grid due to an unreasonable grid connection technology scheme. Grid connection technology refers to the technical solutions required for offshore photovoltaic power generation to connect to the power grid. Because various transformers and high-voltage cables in photovoltaic power plants consume reactive power, and inverters themselves generate harmonics, voltage fluctuations and power transmission losses are significant. Currently, China lacks companies with advanced technology and high-end testing equipment in the control and frequency converter aspects of system integration applications; related technologies and equipment mainly rely on imports. These problems increase the technical risks of investing in offshore photovoltaic power generation projects.

[0073] (3) Photovoltaic array design risks

[0074] Photovoltaic array design risk refers to the risk that an unreasonable photovoltaic array design may lead to insufficient utilization of solar radiation, resulting in uncertain power output. The photovoltaic array layout is a crucial aspect of the technical design of offshore photovoltaic power generation projects. After the photovoltaic equipment is selected, a good array layout can ensure better power generation and thus bring good returns on investment; conversely, a poor layout can pose risks to the expected returns. The design of a photovoltaic array includes the arrangement of support unit components, the series and parallel connection design of components, the optimal tilt angle design, and the calculation of photovoltaic array spacing. If too many photovoltaic modules are selected for each branch, the open-circuit voltage will exceed the limit at the lowest temperature, damaging the system; if too few photovoltaic modules are selected for each branch, the string operating voltage will be low, increasing system losses. Different tilt angles of the photovoltaic panels result in significant differences in the amount of solar radiation received by the array surface each month. Furthermore, in the Northern Hemisphere, the angle between the plane receiving the maximum solar radiation and the horizontal plane is roughly equivalent to the local latitude. If the photovoltaic array spacing is not designed according to this principle, it will be difficult to maximize the utilization of solar energy resources.

[0075] (4) Risks in Floating Support Design

[0076] Floating support design risk refers to the risk that an improperly designed floating structure could hinder the normal operation of a project. Floating support design is a unique technical aspect of offshore photovoltaic (PV) power generation projects and a key differentiator from other PV projects. Due to the unique marine environment, the technical design of floating supports presents significant risks and challenges to project profitability. When designing floating structures, the special requirements of long-term immersion in seawater must be considered. Support materials must be durable, corrosion-resistant, and free from pollution of the aquatic environment. Furthermore, floating supports must be able to withstand harsh marine climates, such as the strong tropical storms prevalent in the southeastern waters of my country. An improperly designed floating support system can lead to power generation failures or, in severe cases, project failure, resulting in significant financial losses for investors.

[0077] (5) Site selection risks

[0078] Site selection risk refers to the uncertain impact of project location selection on future investment returns. Site selection and planning are crucial for the implementation of offshore photovoltaic (PV) power projects, largely determining their success or failure. Unlike conventional coal-fired power plants and other renewable energy generation methods, offshore PV power project site selection has its unique characteristics, involving multiple aspects such as solar energy resource conditions, marine geological surveys, and distance from load centers. Simultaneously, the environmental and social impacts of the site must be considered to ensure its harmony with the environment and human society. Therefore, the site selection process is a special and complex undertaking, and the potential risks involved require serious attention. An inappropriate overseas PV power plant site may not only prevent the project from starting construction on schedule but may also lead to the project failing to achieve its expected power generation, thus negatively impacting investor returns.

[0079] The environment refers to the sum of external conditions of objective things, exerting external forces and influences on them. Environmental risks of offshore photovoltaic power generation investment projects refer to the risks to project investment returns caused by uncertainties in the policy and natural environment. These risks mainly include policy support risks, solar energy resource risks, marine environmental risks, and ecological damage risks.

[0080] (1) Policy support risks

[0081] Policy support refers to national and regional policies supporting the development of the photovoltaic industry, while policy support risks refer to the risks that these policies pose to the investment returns of offshore photovoltaic power generation projects. Because my country's new energy power generation market is not yet mature, various industries are highly dependent on government policies; therefore, the strength and changes in relevant support policies have a significant impact on project returns. Photovoltaic power generation policies can be mainly categorized into planning and deployment, encouragement and promotion, financial subsidies, tax incentives, specific standards, and management regulations. Currently, the government provides substantial support to the photovoltaic industry, having issued a series of relevant energy regulations and policies, and recently signaled a clear upward adjustment of photovoltaic installation plans. Simultaneously, various provinces and regions have also formulated regional support policies of varying strengths for photovoltaic power generation. It is worth noting that offshore photovoltaic power generation in my country is still in the pilot and initial stages, with relatively insufficient policy support and guidance; therefore, investors need to pay attention to the related risks faced by these projects.

[0082] The level of solar energy resources directly affects the installed capacity and grid-connected electricity of offshore photovoltaic power generation projects, thus determining the investment return level of the projects. Based on the amount of total solar radiation received in different regions, my country is divided into four categories of areas. It can be seen that most coastal areas of my country belong to Category III resource areas, with an average annual daily solar radiation of 3 kWh / m². 2The solar eclipse intensity is above 30°C, similar to that of the United States, and superior to that of Europe and Japan, providing the necessary conditions for developing photovoltaic projects. When planning and designing specific offshore photovoltaic power generation projects, power generation is typically estimated based on local solar and monthly solar radiation. However, in actual operation, if there are unfavorable weather conditions such as continuous rainfall or cloud cover, the radiation in the area may not meet the voltage requirements for power generation. Simultaneously, haze, dust, and other obstructions in the atmosphere can also reduce power output. Furthermore, climate change may pose a risk to the prediction of long-term solar resources, and the power system may fail to achieve the expected power generation, thus affecting project profitability.

[0083] Marine environmental risk refers to the uncertainty brought about by changes and extreme conditions in the marine environment where a project is located, affecting the project's profitability. Compared to other photovoltaic (PV) power generation projects, the biggest difference lies in the fact that offshore PV projects are conducted in a marine environment, where harsh conditions pose significant challenges to construction and operation. Severe weather events such as typhoons and thunderstorms, or marine disasters such as tides and tsunamis, can cause devastating damage to offshore PV power plants. In recent years, the intensification of climate change has led to more frequent extreme marine phenomena; for example, La Niña has caused an increase in the frequency of typhoons along my country's coast. Simultaneously, my country's southeastern coastal areas have a subtropical monsoon climate, where salt carried by sea and land breezes can cause severe salt spray corrosion, affecting the durability of PV modules. Furthermore, the effects of sea winds and waves can cause stress and vibration in the PV array, leading to microcracks in the PV modules. Therefore, harsh marine environments can have a significant impact on offshore PV power generation projects, potentially even leading to the complete scrapping of the project and causing huge losses for investors. Thus, investors should carefully consider the level of risk posed by the marine environment when assessing the investment risks of offshore PV power generation projects.

[0084] Ecological damage risk refers to the uncertainty arising from potential negative impacts of a project on its expected returns due to events that could negatively affect the surrounding natural environment. Because offshore photovoltaic (PV) power plants are large-scale, their development and construction inevitably impact the marine ecosystem. For example, laying submarine transmission cables can cause seabed sediments to float, affecting the reproduction of plankton. Projects may also directly encroach on coastal bird habitats, impacting their nesting and breeding. This damage to the marine ecosystem may provoke opposition from environmental protection agencies or environmentalists, posing a risk to the project's successful implementation. Furthermore, although the tempered glass used in PV modules has high light transmittance, reflection cannot be completely avoided, potentially causing visual impacts on coastal residents. In Japan, there have been cases where residents have sued PV power plants for damages due to sunlight reflection, resulting in significant economic losses. Simultaneously, large-scale PV power plants also have visual ecological impacts on the coastal landscape.

[0085] Offshore photovoltaic (PV) power generation produces electricity, and like other industries, it needs market acceptance and testing. The market risk of offshore PV power generation projects refers to the uncertainty of the degree of acceptance and demand fluctuations faced by the electricity market. Market risk is a crucial aspect of investor risk management, determining the profitability and development potential of the electricity product after entering the electricity market, and is a key factor in whether the project can achieve investment returns. Market risks include electricity demand risk, market competition risk, and grid access risk.

[0086] (1) Electricity demand risk

[0087] The market demand for offshore photovoltaic (PV) power generation products depends on the current market capacity and the potential market size. The current market capacity refers to the available electricity demand data; the size of this demand directly determines the supply capacity, which in turn determines the amount of offshore PV power generated, thus affecting the profitability and development trend of offshore PV projects. The potential market size is also a crucial factor influencing market demand. Investors need to use a forward-looking perspective to judge and predict this. If, after careful analysis, investors believe they can identify a significant potential market size, they can decide to invest in the industry; otherwise, they will face the risk of a future sluggish market demand.

[0088] (2) Market competition risk

[0089] Offshore photovoltaic (PV) power projects face competition from other forms of power generation, including conventional coal-fired power and renewable energy. Conventional coal-fired power's greatest competitive advantage lies in its low generation cost and superior peak-shaving performance; even with significant negative externalities, it will continue to hold a large market share for a considerable period. Other renewable energy sources, due to their earlier development, larger market share, and relatively mature industry, also pose significant competitive pressure on offshore PV projects. The strength of these competitors directly impacts the project's market performance and consequently, the investment risk for investors. Therefore, thorough investigation and analysis are essential before making a decision.

[0090] (3) Grid access risks

[0091] Every product faces market entry barriers, and for offshore photovoltaic (PV) power generation projects, this barrier is grid access risk. Grid access refers to the sale of electricity generated by the power plant to the grid system and compliance with the grid's unified power dispatch. Offshore PV power generation projects can only achieve large-scale power generation after grid connection; failure to connect means the electricity produced cannot enter the market, thus preventing revenue from electricity sales. However, due to the randomness of solar radiation, the output of PV power generation systems is also intermittent and random, making power generation difficult to predict. This random output may increase the risk to grid operation safety when connected to the grid. Therefore, grid companies, for their own interests, may impose restrictions on the grid connection of offshore PV power generation.

[0092] By analyzing the investment risk factors of the Haishan photovoltaic power generation project, a framework for an investment risk assessment indicator system can be determined, and a corresponding investment risk assessment indicator system can be established, such as... Figure 3 As shown, the indicator system is divided into three levels: project level, criteria level, and indicator level. The criteria level includes four primary indicators for investment risk assessment: economic risk, technological risk, environmental risk, and market risk. The indicator level includes 16 secondary indicators for investment risk assessment.

[0093] This invention provides an in-depth analysis of the risk factors affecting the investment returns of offshore photovoltaic (PV) power generation projects in my country and establishes an investment risk assessment index system for offshore PV power generation projects. This index system consists of four primary indicators and sixteen secondary indicators. The primary indicators include economic risk, technological risk, environmental risk, and market risk. Specifically, economic risk includes four secondary indicators: initial investment risk, operation and maintenance cost risk, debt repayment ability risk, and profitability risk; technological risk includes five secondary indicators: equipment selection risk, grid connection technology risk, PV array design risk, floating support design risk, and site selection risk; environmental risk includes four secondary indicators: policy support risk, solar energy resource risk, marine environment risk, and ecological damage risk; and market risk includes three secondary indicators: electricity demand risk, market competition risk, and grid access risk.

[0094] The investment risk assessment indicator system construction method according to embodiments of the present invention can construct a reasonable indicator system to guide venture capital investment.

[0095] like Figure 4 As shown, to achieve the above objectives, this invention proposes an investment risk assessment index system construction system 10, comprising:

[0096] The literature retrieval module 100 is used to retrieve relevant literature from the literature database to obtain the basic data for constructing the target indicator system.

[0097] The conventional risk identification module 200 is used to identify investment risk factors by using a risk factor identification model to perform conventional project risk factor identification on the basic data.

[0098] The photovoltaic risk identification module 300 is used to mine risk factors of offshore photovoltaic power generation projects based on preset criteria and marine feature data.

[0099] The investment risk indicator construction module 400 is used to determine investment risk assessment indicators based on the investment risk factors and the risk factors of the offshore photovoltaic power generation project.

[0100] The investment risk assessment indicator system construction system according to embodiments of the present invention can construct a reasonable indicator system to guide venture capital investment.

[0101] In the description of this specification, the references to terms such as "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "example," "specific example," or "some examples," etc., refer to specific features, structures, materials, or characteristics described in connection with that embodiment or example, which are included in at least one embodiment or example of the present invention. In this specification, the illustrative expressions of the above terms do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the specific features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in one or more embodiments or examples. Moreover, without contradiction, those skilled in the art can combine and integrate the different embodiments or examples described in this specification, as well as the features of different embodiments or examples.

[0102] Furthermore, the terms "first" and "second" are used for descriptive purposes only and should not be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly specifying the number of technical features indicated. Thus, a feature defined as "first" or "second" may explicitly or implicitly include at least one of that feature. In the description of this invention, "a plurality of" means at least two, such as two, three, etc., unless otherwise explicitly specified.

Claims

1. A method for constructing an investment risk assessment index system, characterized in that, include: The basic data for constructing the target indicator system was obtained by searching relevant literature in the literature database. Investment risk factors are obtained by using a risk factor identification model to identify routine project risk factors from the aforementioned basic data. Risk factors for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects are mined based on preset criteria and marine characteristic data. Investment risk assessment indicators are determined based on the aforementioned investment risk factors and the aforementioned risk factors of offshore photovoltaic power generation projects.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The basic data for constructing the target indicator system was obtained by searching relevant literature in the literature database, including: Relevant literature was searched using CNKI and Elsevier databases, covering investment risk research, photovoltaic power generation research, and marine environmental research, in order to obtain the search data; The retrieved data will be used as the basis for constructing the target indicator system.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The investment risk factors include: economic risk, technological risk, environmental risk, and market risk.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, Risk factors for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects are identified based on pre-defined criteria and marine feature data mining, including: Obtain language information from personnel engaged in photovoltaic power generation and offshore wind power, and analyze the language information to determine the risk factors of the initial photovoltaic power generation project; By conducting case studies and data analysis, risk factors for intermediate photovoltaic power generation projects can be extracted based on the analysis results. By integrating the risk factors of the initial photovoltaic power generation project and the risk factors of the intermediate photovoltaic power generation project, the determined risk factors for the offshore photovoltaic power generation project are obtained.

5. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that, The economic risks mentioned include initial investment risk, operation and maintenance cost risk, debt repayment ability risk, and profitability risk.

6. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that, The aforementioned technical risks include equipment selection risks, grid connection technology risks, photovoltaic array design risks, floating support design risks, and site selection risks.

7. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that, The environmental risks mentioned include policy support risks, solar energy resource risks, marine environmental risks, and ecological damage risks.

8. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that, The market risks mentioned include electricity demand risk, market competition risk, and grid access risk.

9. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, After determining the investment risk assessment indicators based on the aforementioned investment risk factors and the aforementioned risk factors of offshore photovoltaic power generation projects, the method further includes: Based on the data from the second round of expert opinion surveys, the investment risk assessment indicators were modified by adding and deleting items, resulting in the modified indicators. The modified indicators are divided into hierarchical categories to obtain the final investment risk assessment indicator system for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects.

10. A system for constructing an investment risk assessment index system, characterized in that, include: The literature retrieval module is used to retrieve relevant literature from the literature database to obtain the basic data for constructing the target indicator system. The routine risk identification module is used to identify investment risk factors by using a risk factor identification model to perform routine project risk factor identification on the basic data. The photovoltaic risk identification module is used to mine risk factors for offshore photovoltaic power generation projects based on preset criteria and marine characteristic data. The investment risk indicator construction module is used to determine investment risk assessment indicators based on the investment risk factors and the risk factors of the offshore photovoltaic power generation project.

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