A method for analyzing dynamic response of lake water ecological system under short-term natural disturbance

By combining the rolling window dynamic threshold method and machine learning with the AQUATOX model, the dynamic response of lake aquatic ecosystems under short-term natural disturbances is identified and analyzed. This addresses the shortcomings of existing event identification and control strategies, enables quantitative analysis of zoned control and response mechanisms, and improves the stability of lake water quality.

CN122414713APending Publication Date: 2026-07-17TSINGHUA UNIVERSITY
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
TSINGHUA UNIVERSITY
Filing Date
2026-05-25
Publication Date
2026-07-17

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing technologies lack objective event identification methods when identifying the dynamic response of lake aquatic ecosystems under short-term natural disturbances, making it difficult to quantitatively analyze nonlinear response mechanisms. Furthermore, the control strategies lack the ability to cope with short-term disturbances and are difficult to achieve differentiated control by region.

Method used

A rolling window dynamic threshold method is used to identify disturbance events. A box model is constructed by combining a machine learning model and an AQUATOX water ecological process model. The water quality response signal transmission characteristics are quantified by using feature matrices and feature selection methods to identify key driving factors and simulate regulation strategies.

Benefits of technology

It enables the objective identification of short-term natural disturbance events and the quantitative analysis of nonlinear effects, provides differentiated regulation suggestions for different regions, and enhances the resilience of lake aquatic ecosystems and the control of algal blooms.

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Abstract

本发明提出一种短期自然扰动下湖泊水生态系统动态响应解析方法,本发明包括:采集湖泊多类监测数据,依托动态阈值法识别并筛选自然扰动事件,搭建短期自然扰动事件库;提取水质响应特征参数,量化水质信号空间传导时滞特征并构建特征矩阵;优选机器学习模型,结合SHAP法与分段回归挖掘关键驱动因子及非线性突变特征;构建分区AQUATOX箱式模型并完成率定验证,解析水生生物限制因子时空规律与扰动作用机制;设置多种生态调控情景,依托评价指标完成效果评估,输出湖泊分区差异化生态治理调控建议。本发明能够有效解决短期自然扰动事件对湖泊水生态影响难以系统量化的问题,实现短期自然扰动影响的全面解析。
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