Device for analyzing demand situation of one or more medicaments in region, method, and program therefor

Abstract

To provide a method for analyzing a demand situation of one or more medicaments in a region including a plurality of medical institutions.SOLUTION: A device 100 receives first demand information from a first database 111 (S201). The device 100 also receives second demand information from a second database 112 (S202). The device 100 then detects a start period of a supply unstable period on the basis of the first demand information and the second demand information, for at least any of one or more medicaments included in the first demand information and the second demand information (S203). The device 100 then analyzes a demand situation of the one or more medicaments in which there is supply unstableness, in the supply unstable period (S204). The device 100 creates a proposal to a first medical institution on the basis of the analysis result of the acquired demand situation, and transmits proposal display information for displaying the proposal, to a terminal 121 used by the first medical institution, according to necessity (S205).SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an apparatus, a method, and a program for analyzing the demand situation for one or more drugs in a region. [Background technology]

[0002] Pharmacies and other medical institutions purchase medicines from wholesalers and other retailers, prepare one or more medicines prescribed for patients as necessary, and dispense them to patients who visit the pharmacy. Since medical institutions need to dispense medicines upon request from patients, they strive to maintain sufficient stock of both types and quantities. Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0003] However, whether or not a desired amount of a certain drug can be secured is influenced by demand for that drug in other medical institutions, and is not easy to predict.

[0004] The present invention has been made in consideration of these problems, and its object is to provide an apparatus, method, or program for analyzing the demand situation for one or more drugs in an area that includes multiple medical institutions. [Means for solving the problem]

[0005] In order to achieve this object, a first aspect of the present invention is a method for analyzing a demand situation for one or more drugs in a region, comprising the steps of receiving first demand information for the one or more drugs at a first set of medical institutions located in the region, receiving second demand information for the one or more drugs at a second set of medical institutions other than the first set of medical institutions located in the region, detecting the start of a period of supply uncertainty for at least any of the one or more drugs included in the first demand information and the second demand information based on the first demand information and the second demand information, and analyzing the demand situation for the at least any of the drugs during the period of supply uncertainty.

[0006] In addition, a second aspect of the present invention is a method of the first aspect, further comprising a step of generating a proposal for at least one medical institution included in the first set of medical institutions based on a result of the analysis of the demand situation, and transmitting proposal display information for displaying the proposal.

[0007] A third aspect of the present invention is a method according to the first or second aspect, wherein the first demand information includes a plurality of dates on a daily, weekly or monthly basis, and a drug name or drug identifier and a demand quantity or an approximate value thereof for one or more drugs that were in demand on each date.

[0008] In addition, a fourth aspect of the present invention is the method of the third aspect, wherein the demand amount or an approximation thereof is represented by at least one of the total prescription amount, the number of prescriptions, and the average prescription amount and number of prescriptions per prescription.

[0009] A fifth aspect of the present invention is the method according to the third aspect, wherein the demand amount or an approximate value thereof is represented by at least one of an inventory reduction amount, an order amount, and a delivery amount.

[0010] In addition, a sixth aspect of the present invention is a method of any one of the first to fifth aspects, wherein the second demand information includes a plurality of dates on a daily, weekly or monthly basis, and a drug name or drug identifier and a demand quantity or an approximate value thereof for one or more drugs that were in demand on each date.

[0011] A seventh aspect of the present invention is the method according to the first aspect, wherein said at least any one of the drugs is a plurality of drugs belonging to a predetermined group.

[0012] Further, an eighth aspect of the present invention is the method according to any one of the first to seventh aspects, wherein the suggestion includes a drug name or a drug identifier of a drug that can be substituted for at least any of the drugs.

[0013] A ninth aspect of the present invention is a program for causing a computer to execute a method for analyzing a demand situation for one or more drugs in a region, the program including the steps of: receiving first demand information for the one or more drugs at a first set of medical institutions located in the region; receiving second demand information for the one or more drugs at a second set of medical institutions other than the first set of medical institutions located in the region; detecting a start time of a period of supply uncertainty for at least any of the one or more drugs included in the first demand information and the second demand information, based on the first demand information and the second demand information; and analyzing the demand situation for the at least any of the drugs during the period of supply uncertainty. Includes.

[0014] Further, a tenth aspect of the present invention is an apparatus for analyzing a demand situation for one or more drugs in a region, comprising the steps of receiving first demand information for the one or more drugs at a first set of medical institutions located in the region and second demand information for one or more drugs at a second set of medical institutions other than the first set of medical institutions located in the region, detecting a start time of a period of supply uncertainty for at least any of the one or more drugs included in the first demand information and the second demand information based on the first demand information and the second demand information, and analyzing the demand situation for the at least any of the drugs during the period of supply uncertainty. Effect of the Invention

[0015] According to one aspect of the present invention, it is possible to analyze the demand situation for one or more drugs in an area including multiple medical institutions by detecting the start of a period of supply uncertainty for at least one of one or more drugs included in first demand information from a first set of medical institutions and second demand information from a second set of medical institutions in the area, and analyzing the demand situation for at least one of the drugs during the period of supply uncertainty. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0016] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 illustrates a system according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Diagram 2] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing a flow of demand situation analysis according to one embodiment of the present invention. [Diagram 3] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of a screen displaying an analysis result according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 4] FIG. 11 is a diagram showing another example of a screen displaying an analysis result according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0017] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.

[0018] A system according to an embodiment of the present invention is shown in Fig. 1. The device 100 communicates with a first database 111 in which first demand information for one or more drugs in a first medical institution located in an area including multiple medical institutions is stored, and a second database 112 in which second demand information for one or more drugs in a second medical institution other than the first medical institution located in the area is stored, via an IP network such as the Internet, and further communicates with a terminal 121 used by the first medical institution as necessary.

[0019] The device 100 includes a communication unit 101 such as a communication interface, a processing unit 102 such as a processor or CPU, and a storage unit 103 including a storage device or storage medium such as a memory or a hard disk, and can be configured by executing a program for performing each process or operation in the processing unit 102. The device 100 may include one or more devices, computers, or servers. The program may include one or more programs, and may be recorded in a computer-readable storage medium to form a non-transient program product. The program may be stored in a storage device or storage medium such as the storage unit 103 or a database 104 accessible from the device 100 via an IP network, and instructions included in the program may be executed in at least one processor of the processing unit 102. Data described below as being stored in the storage unit 103 may be stored in a storage device or storage medium such as the database 104, and vice versa.

[0020] First, the device 100 receives first demand information from the first database 111 (S201). Here, for simplicity, the first demand information stored in the first database 111 is described as demand information for a single medical institution, but may be demand information for a set of multiple medical institutions, and the expression "first set of medical institutions" in this specification includes both the case of a single medical institution and the case of multiple medical institutions.

[0021] The first demand information includes a date, a drug name or drug identifier, and a demand amount or an approximate value thereof. The date can be, for example, daily, weekly, or monthly. The drug in demand on each date can be identified by the drug name or drug identifier, and examples of the drug identifier include YJ code and GTIN code. The demand amount or an approximate value thereof for each drug differs depending on whether the dispensing log or the inventory log of the first medical institution is mainly used. In the former case, the demand amount can be expressed by the total prescription amount, or the average prescription amount and the number of prescriptions per prescription. It is also possible to express an approximate value of the demand amount by the number of prescriptions. In the latter case, the demand amount or an approximate value thereof can be expressed by at least one of the inventory reduction amount, the order amount, and the delivery amount. The first demand information may be received from the first database 111 as time series data for each drug, or the first demand information including information on a plurality of drugs received by the device 100 may be aggregated as time series data for each drug.

[0022] The device 100 also receives second demand information from the second database 112 (S202). The second demand information may be medical information of a set of multiple medical institutions other than the first set of medical institutions, similar to the first demand information, and the expression "second set of medical institutions" in this specification includes both a single medical institution other than the first set of medical institutions and multiple medical institutions. The details of the second demand information are the same as those of the first demand information. Note that even if the first demand information mainly uses dispensing logs and the second demand information mainly uses inventory logs, this is permissible as long as the demand amounts or their approximate values ​​contained in both are comparable.

[0023] A set of a plurality of drugs included in the first and second demand information may be treated as one group, and the demand amount or its approximate value may be tallied. The determination of whether the drug included in the first and second demand information belongs to any group may be performed, for example, by storing in the storage unit 103 of the device 100 a correspondence between a plurality of group identifiers and a plurality of drug identifiers corresponding to each group identifier, and referring to this. The determination may also be performed based on the fact that part of the drug identifiers of each drug is common. For example, when drugs are identified by YJ codes, if a predetermined number of digits from the beginning are the same, they may be treated as drugs belonging to the same group.

[0024] Next, the device 100 detects the start of a period of supply uncertainty for at least one of the one or more drugs included in the first and second demand information based on the first and second demand information (S203). In this specification, the term "period of supply uncertainty" refers to a period when it is highly likely that a desired amount of a certain drug cannot be supplied, and is not limited to the specific examples described below as long as it meets this definition.

[0025] As an example, when the demand amount or its approximation is expressed by the total prescription amount, the total prescription amount of a plurality of drugs belonging to a predetermined group is counted on a weekly basis, and a week in which an increase of a predetermined threshold or more occurs compared to the previous year is detected as the start of a period of supply instability. This is because there is a possibility that the supply amount will not be able to keep up with the demand amount. In addition, a week in which an increase of a predetermined threshold or more occurs in the rate of change of the total prescription amount counted as described above compared to the previous year may be detected as the start of a period of supply instability. Here, a plurality of drugs are grouped, but the start of a period of supply instability can be detected in the same manner for a single drug. Conversely, a week in which the change amount compared to the previous year is less than or equal to a predetermined threshold may be detected as the end of the supply instability. Although an example of counting on a weekly basis is given here, a predetermined period other than a week may be used as the unit of counting.

[0026] In addition, when grouping, the time when the demand ratio or the change rate of the demand ratio of the drugs belonging to the group within the group changes by more than or exceeding a predetermined threshold value can be detected as the start of the supply instability. This is because it may be an indication of a sudden change in the supply amount of any drug. The above-mentioned predetermined threshold value can be stored in the storage unit 103 and referred to when detecting the start of the supply instability period.

[0027] Then, the device 100 analyzes the demand situation for one or more drugs with supply instability during the supply instability period (S204). For example, when the demand amount or its approximate value increases compared to the period before the supply instability period, it can be analyzed as a situation of increased demand, when the average prescription amount per prescription decreases, it can be analyzed as a situation where prescription amount restriction is requested, and when the number of prescriptions decreases, it can be analyzed as a situation where prescription itself is requested to be restricted. The comparison with the period before the supply instability period can be performed, for example, by using the average weekly total prescription amount and the average average prescription amount per prescription in the one month before the start week of the supply instability period as reference values, and using the amount of change from the reference value for the period after the start week. Further details regarding the analysis of the demand situation will be described later.

[0028] The device 100 generates a proposal for the first medical institution based on the analysis result of the demand situation obtained in this way, as necessary, and transmits proposal display information for displaying the proposal to the terminal 121 used by the first medical institution (S205). The proposal can be displayed on the display screen of the terminal 121 by transmitting the proposal display information as, for example, an HTML file, or by running an application (hereinafter also referred to as an "app") installed on the terminal 121 and displaying the proposal on the app. Analysis result display information for displaying the analysis result may be transmitted from the device 100 to the terminal 121 without making a proposal.

[0029] In this way, based on first demand information from a first set of medical institutions in the region and second demand information from a second set of medical institutions, it is possible to detect the start of a period of supply uncertainty for at least one of the one or more drugs included in this information and analyze the demand situation for at least one of the drugs during the period of supply uncertainty, thereby analyzing the demand situation for one or more drugs in a region including multiple medical institutions.

[0030] Demand analysis details By comparing with the period before the supply instability period, it is possible to perform an analysis of the shortage of inventory during the supply instability period. First, for a certain drug, the standard safety stock amount for each store in a predetermined period before the supply instability period, for example, a period of one month before the start of the supply instability period, and the standard number of days of stockout per predetermined period, such as one week, are calculated. The standard safety stock amount means the safety stock amount in the standard period before the supply instability period, and the safety stock amount can be, for example, the stock amount that is less than or equal to x% in the distribution of the stock amount at the closing time in the predetermined period. For example, the value of x can be 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, etc. The standard number of days of stockout means the number of days of stockout in the standard period before the supply instability period, and the number of days of stockout can be calculated by defining, for example, the days when the stock amount at the closing time is 0 and the days when the stock amount before the opening time is less than the demand amount of the day as stockout days. In response to this, the amount of safety stock and the number of days of shortage per week in the period within or including the period of supply uncertainty are calculated, and compared with their respective reference values ​​to calculate the increase in the amount of safety stock and the number of days of shortage, which are used as indicators of changes in the demand situation.

[0031] The increase in the number of days of stockout for each store is averaged for all stores in the region or at least a portion of them, and the higher this average is, the more serious the supply shortage at pharmacies is, which can be used as an index of the degree of supply shortage. Regarding the index of change in safety stock, by calculating the variance or deviation between stores in the region, or calculating the ratio of stores with a decreasing safety stock to stores with an increasing safety stock, it can be used to estimate the degree of variation in the drug supply situation, i.e., the inventory unevenness, such as whether pharmacies are divided into those with sufficient stock and those without, or whether all pharmacies have a similar stock supply situation.

[0032] FIG. 3 shows an example of a screen displaying the analysis results according to one embodiment of the present invention. The analysis result screen 300 shows the supply situation in the region estimated from the analysis result of the demand situation and suggestions regarding the countermeasures. In the graph shown in the analysis result screen 300, since the supply shortage degree of tablets is small and there is a large variation between stores, it is thought that the supply situation will improve if the bias in the securing situation between stores is eliminated, and the information that "the supply shortage will be resolved quickly" is presented. In addition, since there are stores that have secured sufficient stock, inter-store exchange is proposed as a proposal for improving the supply situation. For powder, the variation between stores is small but the supply shortage degree is large, that is, many stores are out of stock and it is thought that the supply of the manufacturer is not in time, so it is possible that the supply shortage will continue for a certain period of time until the manufacturer's supply increases, and the information that "the supply shortage is likely to be prolonged" is presented. In addition, since there are substitute products for powder, "securing substitute products" is proposed as a countermeasure against the supply shortage. By having templates for analysis results and proposed responses to those results, it is possible to provide a screen that makes the above-mentioned suggestions.

[0033] In addition, in the calculation of the above index, each drug may be assigned a graded importance for each store, and an analysis may be performed based on the level of importance. The importance may be the ratio of the drug's sales to the total sales, or the ratio of the safety stock to the demand when the supply is not in a state of uncertainty. Specifically, if there are four stores, A, B, C, and D, that handle a certain drug, the drug's importance may be level 1, which is the highest level, at A and B, and level 3, which is the lowest level, at C and D, and the level 3 stores C and D may not be included in the analysis, and only A and B may be analyzed. In the case of drugs with low importance, there is a possibility that the inventory management method may be different, such as easily allowing stockouts regardless of the actual shortage situation, so by excluding those stores, it is possible to suppress the influence of the difference in the inventory management method for each store and analyze the demand situation.

[0034] During periods of supply uncertainty, drugs that would have been prescribed before the onset of the supply uncertainty period may be substituted with prescriptions for different drugs. It is possible to estimate the extent to which the supply is insufficient compared to the demand when restrictions on prescription amounts or prescriptions themselves are lifted for drugs with restrictions on prescription amounts or prescriptions themselves, and which drugs are substituted for which drugs when prescriptions are substituted within a group.

[0035] Specifically, the demand and the corresponding supply shortage in the absence of substitution are estimated, for example, as follows. First, the number of prescriptions for a given period, such as the most recent month before the start of the supply unstable period, is multiplied by a constant α to determine the expected number of prescriptions for the supply unstable period. Here, α can be defined as follows and stored in the storage unit 103: Number of prescriptions (later) = Number of prescriptions (earlier) × α Both "number of prescriptions (after)" and "number of prescriptions (before)" are the number of prescriptions for one or more drugs, including drugs other than restricted drugs, at one or more pharmacies in the area, the former being the number in the period before the start of the supply uncertainty period, and the latter being the period during or including the supply uncertainty period. The expected prescription amount, i.e., the expected demand amount, is calculated by multiplying the number of prescriptions (after) by the prescription amount / prescription before the start of the supply uncertainty period, and the actual prescription amount is the supply amount, so that the supply shortage can be calculated. The ratio of the supply shortage to the expected demand amount is called the "degree of shortage." The expected prescription amount can be calculated not only for each store, but also for the entire area, as described below.

[0036] The substitution relationship of drugs is estimated as being substituted between a drug that is assumed to be in short supply and a drug that is in excess of the expected amount. The shortage of the drug in the demand amount is assumed to be covered by the excess amount of the substitute drug, and a substitute drug that can make up for the shortage is extracted. If there is a difference in the ease of substitution between drugs in the same group, information on the substitution priority of the substitute drug and the substitute drug is stored and held in the storage unit 103, and based on this, the substitute drug can be determined by assuming that substitution is performed in order of priority. If the substitution priority is not held, the drug with the large shortage or large excess may be determined as having the high substitution priority.

[0037] FIG. 4 shows another example of a screen displaying the analysis results according to one embodiment of the present invention. The analysis result screen 400 shows the analysis results of the demand situation of the drug ingredient "acetaminophen" which has fallen into supply instability due to a sudden increase in demand. By analyzing the total prescription amount of drugs with acetaminophen as a drug ingredient grouped together, the start of the supply instability period was detected in April 2023, and the supply instability period is indicated on the screen as "there is a tendency for supply instability of main products due to a sudden increase in demand". In the case of supply instability due to a sudden change in the demand ratio, it is possible to indicate that the supply instability period is occurring together with the cause of the supply instability, such as "there is a tendency for supply shortage due to fluctuations in the supply volume of XX manufacturer". In the "Expected shortage level by standard" item, information on drugs that are in demand as substitutes in the target area and the shortage level in the entire area are displayed for each drug that has a supply shortage in the target area based on the analysis results of the demand situation of each drug in the group. The shortage level in the store is also calculated in the same way as the shortage level in the entire area based on the actual prescription amount of the store, and is displayed together with the comparison result with the shortage level in the entire area (for example, "regional average").

[0038] It should be noted that in the above-mentioned embodiments, unless there is a statement of "only", such as "based only on", "only in response to", "only in the case of", or "with reference only", it is assumed in this specification that additional information may be taken into consideration. Also, as an example, it should be noted that the statement "do b when a" does not necessarily mean "always do b when a" or "do b immediately after a" unless expressly stated. Also, the statement "each a constituting A" does not necessarily mean that A is composed of multiple components, but includes the case where the component is singular.

[0039] Also, just to be clear, even if there is an aspect of a method, program, terminal, device, server or system (hereinafter referred to as a "method, etc.") that performs an operation different from that described in this specification, each aspect of the present invention is directed to an operation that is the same as any of the operations described in this specification, and the existence of an operation different from that described in this specification does not make the method, etc. outside the scope of each aspect of the present invention. [Explanation of symbols]

[0040] 100 devices 101 Communications Department 102 Processing section 103 Storage section 104 Database 111 First Database 112 Second Database 121 Terminals 300 Analysis result display screen 400 Analysis result display screen

Claims

1. 1. A method for analyzing demand for one or more drugs in a geographic area, comprising: receiving first demand information for the one or more medications at a first set of medical facilities located within the geographic region; receiving second demand information for one or more medications at a second set of medical institutions other than the first set of medical institutions located in the geographic area; Detecting a start time of a period of supply instability for at least any one of the one or more drugs included in the first demand information and the second demand information based on the first demand information and the second demand information; analyzing a demand situation for the at least one drug during the supply uncertainty period; Includes.

2. 2. The method of claim 1 , The method further includes a step of generating a proposal for at least one of the medical institutions included in the first set of medical institutions based on the analysis result of the demand situation, and transmitting proposal display information for displaying the proposal.

3. 3. The method according to claim 1 or 2, The first demand information includes a plurality of dates on a daily, weekly or monthly basis, and the drug names or drug identifiers and the demand amounts or approximate amounts thereof of one or more drugs that were in demand on each date.

4. 4. The method of claim 3, The demand amount or an approximation thereof is represented by at least one of the total prescription amount, the number of prescriptions, and the average prescription amount and number of prescriptions per prescription.

5. 4. The method of claim 3, The demand amount or an approximation thereof is represented by at least one of an inventory reduction amount, an order amount, and a delivery amount.

6. 6. A method according to any one of claims 1 to 5, comprising: The second demand information includes a plurality of dates on a daily, weekly or monthly basis, and the drug names or drug identifiers and the demand amounts or approximate amounts thereof of one or more drugs that were in demand on each date.

7. 2. The method of claim 1 , At least any one of the drugs is a plurality of drugs belonging to a predetermined group.

8. 8. A method according to any one of claims 1 to 7, comprising: The suggestions include drug names or drug identifiers of drugs that can be substituted for at least one of the drugs.

9. A program for causing a computer to execute a method for analyzing a demand situation for one or more drugs in a region, the computer comprising: receiving first demand information for the one or more medications at a first set of medical facilities located within the geographic region; receiving second demand information for one or more medications at a second set of medical institutions other than the first set of medical institutions located in the geographic area; Detecting a start time of a period of supply instability for at least any one of the one or more drugs included in the first demand information and the second demand information based on the first demand information and the second demand information; analyzing a demand situation for the at least one drug during the supply uncertainty period; Includes.

10. An apparatus for analyzing a demand situation for one or more drugs in a region, comprising: receiving first demand information for the one or more drugs at a first set of medical institutions located in the region and second demand information for the one or more drugs at a second set of medical institutions other than the first set of medical institutions located in the region; Detecting a start time of a period of supply instability for at least any one of the one or more drugs included in the first demand information and the second demand information based on the first demand information and the second demand information; analyzing a demand situation for the at least one drug during the supply uncertainty period; Includes.

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