Business size estimation device and program for business size estimation

Abstract

To estimate the scale of a business with simpler processing and higher accuracy than conventional techniques. [Solution] The business size estimation device acquires patent publications in which the company to be estimated is the applicant and / or patent publications in which a first patent classification corresponding to the business to be estimated is assigned, counts the number of types of patent classifications assigned to the acquired patent publications, and the number of types of second patent classifications which are a classification method different from the first patent classification, and estimates the business size of the company to be estimated and / or the size of the business to be estimated using the correlation between the counted number of types of second patent classifications and the business size of the company to be estimated and / or the size of the business to be estimated.

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a business scale estimation device and a program for business scale estimation. [Background technology]

[0002] Patent Document 1 (JP 2019-32614 A) describes a method for estimating the business stage of an applicant's business by machine learning a model using document information from a patent publication.

[0003] Non-patent document 1 ("Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Patents on Corporate Performance," Nakagawa Hiromitsu, 2004, Journal of the Society of Evolutionary Economics, 8, 187-196) states that there is a significant positive correlation between the number of patents and sales of each company in the Japanese electronics industry. It also states that there is a significant correlation between patents and operating profits in the pharmaceutical industry.

[0004] Non-patent document 2 shows that, for example, for an international electronics manufacturer with annual sales of over 500 billion yen, the number of types of IPCs assigned to a group of U.S. published patents filed by the company, excluding overlapping IPCs, has a higher correlation with the company's sales, regardless of the country of origin, than the number of patents applied for.

[0005] Non-Patent Document 3 shows that even in the subgroups, which are the most detailed classification of the IPC, the number of types is smaller than other classifications such as the CPC (Cooperative Patent Classification), which is used mainly in Europe and the United States, or the classification (FI / F-terms) used in Japan, and that the accuracy of the classification is insufficient. On the other hand, these classification methods are complex, and it is difficult to use them for macro-quantitative analysis. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0006] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2019-32614 [Non-patent literature]

[0007] [Non-Patent Document 1] "Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Patents on Corporate Performance" Hiromitsu Nakagawa, 2004, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 8, 187-196 [Non-patent document 2] "Current Issues in Patent Analysis Methods and Examination of New Methods for Developing Technology Strategies for Electrical Manufacturers," Hiroaki Ando et al., Proceedings of the 85th National Convention of the Information Processing Society of Japan, 2023 (4), pp. 4-443-444 (published February 16, 2023) [Non-patent document 3] "About CPC (Cooperative Patent Classification)" 2013.8.20. no.270 47 tokugikon Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0008] When a company engages in business strategy activities, it is required to be able to estimate the strength comparison between its own company and its competitors, the sales of its own and other companies' businesses, the business budget allocation of its own and other companies' businesses, and the business trends of its own and other companies. Note that "strength" here refers to the entire range of investments related to the sales of the business, including R&D expenses for technological development, R&D personnel, as well as selling and administrative expenses. This is because it is assumed to be roughly proportional to business sales.

[0009] In Japan, patent classification has traditionally been carried out using a combination of FI-terms and IPC, but in Europe and the United States, classification using a combination of IPC and CPC has been used since 2013. However, the reality is that no method has been proposed for estimating business scale with high accuracy using these classifications.

[0010] An object of the present invention is to make it possible to estimate the scale of a business with simpler processing and with higher accuracy than conventional techniques. [Means for solving the problem]

[0011] The first aspect is a business scale estimation device that includes an acquisition unit that acquires patent publications in which the company to be estimated is the applicant and / or patent publications that have been assigned a first patent classification corresponding to the business to be estimated, a counting unit that counts the number of types of patent classifications assigned to the patent publications acquired by the acquisition unit, including the number of types of second patent classifications that are a classification method different from the first patent classifications, and an estimation unit that estimates the business scale of the company to be estimated and / or the scale of the business to be estimated using a correlation between the number of types of second patent classifications counted by the counting unit and the business scale of the company to be estimated and / or the scale of the business to be estimated.

[0012] The second aspect is a business scale estimation device in which, in the first aspect, the counting unit counts the number of types of the second patent classification assigned to the patent gazettes acquired by the acquisition unit, removing duplicates.

[0013] A third aspect is the business scale estimation device according to the first or second aspect, wherein the first patent classification is CPC (Cooperative Patent Classification) or FI (File Index).

[0014] A fourth aspect is the business scale estimation device according to the third aspect, wherein the second patent classification is IPC (International Patent Classification).

[0015] A fifth aspect is a business scale estimation device including: a first acquisition unit that acquires patent publications assigned with a first patent classification corresponding to the business to be estimated; a second acquisition unit that acquires patent publications in which the company to be estimated is the applicant from the patent publications acquired by the first acquisition unit; a first counting unit that counts the number of first assigned types assigned to the patent publications acquired by the first acquisition unit, the number of first assigned types of a second patent classification that is a classification method different from the first patent classification; a second counting unit that counts the number of second assigned types assigned to the patent publications acquired by the second acquisition unit, the number of second assigned types of a second patent classification that is a classification method different from the first patent classification; a calculation unit that calculates a rate of assigned types by dividing the second number of assigned types by the first number of assigned types; and an estimation unit that uses the rate of assigned types calculated by the calculation unit to estimate a business scale share of the business scale of the company to be estimated relative to the size of the business to be estimated.

[0016] A sixth aspect is a program for business scale estimation that causes a computer to execute an acquisition process for acquiring patent gazettes in which the company to be estimated is the applicant and / or patent gazettes to which a first patent classification corresponding to the business to be estimated has been assigned, a counting process for counting the number of types of patent classifications assigned to the patent gazettes acquired in the acquisition process, the number of types of second patent classifications that are a classification method different from the first patent classification, and an estimation process for estimating the business scale of the company to be estimated and / or the size of the business to be estimated using a correlation between the number of types of second patent classifications counted in the counting process and the business scale of the company to be estimated and / or the size of the business to be estimated.

[0017] A seventh aspect is a program for business size estimation that causes a computer to execute a first acquisition process for acquiring patent gazettes to which a first patent classification corresponding to the business to be estimated is assigned; a second acquisition process for acquiring patent gazettes in which the company to be estimated is the applicant from the patent gazettes acquired in the first acquisition process; a first counting process for counting the number of first assigned types assigned to the patent gazettes acquired in the first acquisition process, the number of first assigned types of a second patent classification that is a classification method different from the first patent classification; a second counting process for counting the number of second assigned types assigned to the patent gazettes acquired in the second acquisition process, the number of second assigned types of a second patent classification that is a classification method different from the first patent classification; a calculation process for calculating a rate of assigned types by dividing the second number of assigned types by the first number of assigned types; and an estimation process for estimating the business size share of the business scale of the company to be estimated relative to the size of the business to be estimated, using the rate of assigned types calculated in the calculation process. [Effects of the Invention]

[0018] According to the first to seventh aspects, the scale of a business can be estimated with simpler processing and with higher accuracy than in the prior art. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0019] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the functional configuration of a business scale estimation device according to the first embodiment. [Figure 2] FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the functional configuration of a business scale estimation device according to the second reference embodiment. [Figure 3] FIG. 3 is a block diagram showing the functional configuration of a business scale estimation device according to the third embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing the configuration of one or more personal computer terminals, a server, and a network that communicably connects the personal computer terminals and the server according to the reference embodiment. [Figure 5] FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a hardware configuration for realizing the functional configuration of the reference embodiment. [Figure 6A]FIG. 6A is a flowchart showing the processing steps of a program for business scale estimation that realizes the functions of the business scale estimation device. [Figure 6B] FIG. 6B is a flowchart showing the processing steps of a program for business scale estimation that realizes the functions of the business scale estimation device. [Figure 6C] FIG. 6C is a flowchart showing the processing steps of a program for business scale estimation that realizes the functions of the business scale estimation device. [Figure 7A] FIG. 7A is a diagram illustrating an acquisition process performed by an acquisition unit according to the first reference embodiment. [Figure 7B] FIG. 7B is a diagram illustrating the acquisition process performed by the acquisition unit of the first reference embodiment. [Figure 8] FIG. 8 is a diagram for explaining the number of granted types N, and corresponds to the acquired publication display unit shown in FIG. 7B. [Figure 9A] FIG. 9A is a diagram illustrating the number of types assigned to higher-level patent classifications and lower-level patent classifications. [Figure 9B] FIG. 9B is a diagram illustrating correlations pre-stored in the database of the server. [Figure 10A] FIG. 10A is a diagram illustrating an estimated screen on the display device of the user terminal. [Figure 10B] FIG. 10B is a diagram illustrating an estimated screen on the display device of the user terminal. [Figure 10C] FIG. 10C is a diagram illustrating an estimated screen on the display device of the user terminal. [Figure 10D] FIG. 10D is a diagram illustrating an estimated screen on the display device of the user terminal. [Figure 11A] FIG. 11A is a diagram illustrating an estimated screen on the display device of the user terminal. [Figure 11B] FIG. 11B is a diagram illustrating an estimated screen on the display device of the user terminal. [Figure 12A] FIG. 12A is a diagram illustrating an estimated screen on the display device of the user terminal. [Figure 12B] FIG. 12B is a diagram illustrating an estimated screen on the display device of the user terminal. [Figure 13A] FIG. 13A is a diagram illustrating an estimated screen on the display device of the user terminal. [Figure 13B] FIG. 13B is a diagram illustrating an estimated screen on the display device of the user terminal. [Figure 14A] FIG. 14A is a diagram illustrating regression coefficients. [Figure 14B] FIG. 14B is a diagram showing a regression curve corresponding to the business scale prediction model. [Figure 15A] FIG. 15A is a diagram illustrating an estimated screen on the display device of the user terminal. [Figure 15B] FIG. 15B is a diagram illustrating an example of an estimation result display screen on the display device of the user terminal. [Figure 15C] FIG. 15C is a diagram illustrating an example of an estimation result display screen on the display device of the user terminal. [Figure 16] FIG. 16 is a diagram showing the change over time in sales per IPC (billion yen / point=Pt) in the healthcare business for each of the two companies. [Figure 17] Figure 17 is a co-occurrence map showing the number of IPC subgroups assigned to each company in each healthcare business area, relative to the size of the bubbles. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0020] Hereinafter, a reference embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

[0021] (Reference form)

[0022] (Functional configuration of business scale estimation device)

[0023] FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the functional configuration of a business scale estimation device 100 according to the first embodiment.

[0024] The business scale estimation device 100 of the first reference embodiment includes an acquisition unit 110, a counting unit 120, and an estimation unit .

[0025] FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the functional configuration of a business scale estimation device 200 according to the second reference embodiment.

[0026] The business scale estimation device 200 of the second reference embodiment is configured to include a first acquisition unit 210, a second acquisition unit 220, a first counting unit 230, a second counting unit 240, a calculation unit 250, and an estimation unit 260.

[0027] FIG. 3 is a block diagram showing the functional configuration of a business scale estimation device 300 according to the third embodiment.

[0028] The business scale estimation device 300 of the third reference embodiment includes an acquisition unit 310, a performance value acquisition unit 320, a counting unit 330, and a prediction model generation unit 340.

[0029] 1, 2, and 3 can be realized by a combination of one or more personal computer terminals 60, a server 70, and a network 80 that communicatively connects the personal computer terminals 60 and the server 70, as shown in Fig. 4. Alternatively, the functions can be realized by a single personal computer terminal 60.

[0030] (Hardware configuration)

[0031] Fig. 5 is a diagram showing a hardware configuration for realizing the functional configurations of the first, second and third reference embodiments shown in Fig. 1, Fig. 2 and Fig. 3. The hardware configuration of the personal computer terminal 60 or the server 70 is shown as an example.

[0032] As shown in FIG. 5, the personal computer terminal 60 or the server 70 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 61, a ROM (Read Only Memory) 62, a RAM (Random Access Memory) 63, storage 64, an input device 66, a display device 67, a communication I / F 68, and an external storage device 69, which are connected to each other so as to be able to communicate with each other via a system bus 65.

[0033] The CPU 61 is a central processing unit that executes various programs and controls each device connected to the system bus 65. That is, the CPU 61 reads a program from the ROM 62 or the storage 64 and executes the program using the RAM 63 as a work area. The CPU 61 controls each device connected to the system bus 65 and performs various arithmetic processing in accordance with the program recorded in the ROM 62 or the storage 64. The ROM 62 or the storage 64 stores a BIOS (Basic Input / Output System) and an OS (Operating System), which are control programs executed by the CPU 61, as well as various computer-readable and executable programs and various necessary data for realizing the present embodiment.

[0034] The ROM 62 stores various control programs and various data. The RAM 63 functions as the main memory, work area, etc. of the CPU 61 and temporarily stores programs or data as a working area. The storage 64 is configured with an HDD (Hard Disk Drive) or SSD (Solid State Drive) and stores various programs including the BIOS and OS, and various data.

[0035] The input device 66 includes a pointing device such as a mouse, a keyboard, a reading device such as a scanner, and is used to perform various inputs.

[0036] The display device 67 is, for example, a liquid crystal display, and displays various information. The display device 67 may also function as the input device 66 by employing a touch panel system.

[0037] The communication interface 68 is an interface for communicating with other devices such as the server 70 and the terminal 60, and uses standards such as Ethernet (registered trademark), FDDI, Wi-Fi (registered trademark), etc. The communication interface 68 connects to a network 80 and controls the transmission and reception of data.

[0038] The external storage device 69 is composed of various types of memory cards such as USB memory, HDD, SSD, or other external storage media that can be detachably connected.

[0039] (Program for business size estimation)

[0040] 6A is a flowchart showing the processing steps of a program PB1A for business scale estimation that realizes the functions of the business scale estimation device 100. The program PB1A for business scale estimation causes a computer to execute an acquisition process S11, a counting process S12, and an estimation process S13. The acquisition process S11 corresponds to the process performed by the acquisition unit 110. The counting process S12 corresponds to the process performed by the counting unit 120. The estimation process S13 corresponds to the process performed by the estimation unit 130.

[0041] 6B is a flowchart showing the processing steps of a program PB1B for business scale estimation that realizes the functions of the business scale estimation device 200. The program PB1B for business scale estimation causes a computer to execute a first acquisition process S21, a second acquisition process S22, a first counting process S23, a second counting process S24, a calculation process S25, and an estimation process S26. The first acquisition process S21 corresponds to the processing performed by the first acquisition unit 210. The second acquisition process S22 corresponds to the processing performed by the second acquisition unit 220. The first counting process S23 corresponds to the processing performed by the first counting unit 230. The second counting process S24 corresponds to the processing performed by the second counting unit 240. The calculation process S25 corresponds to the processing performed by the calculation unit 250. The estimation process S26 corresponds to the processing performed by the estimation unit 260.

[0042] 6C is a flowchart showing the processing steps of a program PB1C for business scale estimation that realizes the functions of the business scale estimation device 300. The program PB1C for business scale estimation causes a computer to execute an acquisition process S31, a performance value acquisition process S32, a counting process S33, and a prediction model generation process S34. The acquisition process S31 corresponds to the processing performed by the acquisition unit 310. The performance value acquisition process S32 corresponds to the processing performed by the performance value acquisition unit 320. The counting process S33 corresponds to the processing performed by the counting unit 330. The prediction model generation process S34 corresponds to the processing performed by the prediction model generation unit 340.

[0043] The programs PB1A, PB1B, and PB1C are stored in the ROM 62, the storage 64, or the external storage device 69. The personal computer terminal 60 or the server 70 reads out the programs PB1A, PB1B, and PB1C from the ROM 62, the storage 64, or the external storage device 69 and executes the above-mentioned processes. The server 70 is provided with a database 71 configured from the ROM 62, the storage 64, or the external storage device 69.

[0044] Whether the above processes S11 to S34 are performed by the personal computer terminal 60 or the server 70 can be determined arbitrarily depending on the system configuration. For example, the programs PB1A, PB1B, and PB1C may be installed in the personal computer terminal 60, and the programs PB1A, PB1B, and PB1C may be executed by the personal computer terminal 60 alone. Alternatively, for example, the processes of the programs PB1A, PB1B, and PB1C may be executed by both the personal computer terminal 60 and the server 70 by accessing the server 70 from the personal computer terminal 60 via the network 80.

[0045] Each of the reference embodiments will be described below.

[0046] (1st reference form)

[0047] The business scale estimation device 100 of the first reference embodiment includes an acquisition unit 110, a counting unit 120, and an estimation unit 130, and executes a program PB1A having a processing procedure shown in FIG. 6A.

[0048] (Acquisition process S11 by acquisition unit 110)

[0049] The acquisition unit 110 acquires patent publications in which the company to be estimated is the applicant and / or patent publications to which a higher patent classification corresponding to the business to be estimated has been assigned (S11).

[0050] This acquisition process will be described below with reference to FIGS. 7A and 7B.

[0051] 7A and 7B are diagrams for explaining the acquisition process performed by the acquisition unit 110 of the first reference embodiment.

[0052] By accessing the server 70 from a personal computer terminal (hereinafter referred to as a user terminal) 60 provided on the user side, a selection screen 51 is displayed on the screen of a display device 67 of the user terminal 60. The selection screen 51 is configured as an interface screen equipped with the functions of the acquisition unit 110.

[0053] The user can perform an operation on the selection screen 51 to select a company and / or a business to be estimated.

[0054] The selection screen 51 is provided with a company selection section 51A, a business selection section 51B, a publication type selection section 51C, an issuance period selection section 51D, and an issuance country selection section 51E.

[0055] The company selection section 51A can be configured with a pull-down menu, check boxes, input text boxes, etc. for selecting a company. For example, one or more companies can be selected from the company names COM1, COM2, COM3, etc.

[0056] The business selection section 51B can be configured with a pull-down menu, check boxes, input text boxes, etc. for selecting a business. For example, one or more businesses (including all businesses) can be selected from businesses such as image communication, semiconductor manufacturing, X-ray diagnostic equipment, etc. Businesses can be selected based on technology areas corresponding to subclasses or main groups of the International Patent Classification (IPC).

[0057] The International Patent Classification (IPC) consists of multiple layers of patent classifications, including higher-level patent classifications and lower-level subclassifications. From top to bottom, the layers are: Class C0, Subclass C1, Main Group C2, Subgroup C3, etc. If national regulations stipulate a more detailed classification than subgroups in addition to the IPC, those classifications can also be used. It is also possible to select subgroups by using the numerical values ​​below the " / " in the IPC subgroups. For example, H01L21 / 10 has subgroups H01L21 / 103, H01L21 / 105, H01L21 / 108, etc. In this case, treating H01L21 / 1 as a substitute for the main group and counting the number of subgroups (types) below it allows for a more detailed understanding of technological trends and estimation of business scale.

[0058] The term "patent publication" as used herein includes registered publications and publications. Furthermore, the term "patent publication" as used herein includes not only publications issued in Japan but also publications issued in foreign countries.

[0059] By selecting and operating the publication type selection section 51C, it is possible to select the type of patent publication from among "registered publication," "unregistered publication," and "both registered publication and unregistered publication."

[0060] By selecting and operating the publication period selection section 51D, the length of the publication period of the patent gazette can be selected from "the past year," "multiple years in the past (e.g., three years)," "a specific fiscal year (e.g., fiscal year 2021)," and "specific multiple years (e.g., from 2018 to 2021)."

[0061] By selecting and operating the issuing country selection section 51E, it is possible to select the issuing country of the patent publication from among "Japan (JP)," "United States (US)," "Europe (EP)," "China (CN)," "All countries," and the like.

[0062] For example, by selecting the company selection section 51A, the company "COM1" can be selected. Also, by selecting the business acquisition instruction section 51B, the business "all businesses" can be selected. Also, by selecting the publication type selection section 51C, the "publication publication" can be selected. Also, by selecting the publication period selection section 51D, the publication period of the patent publication can be selected "past year." Also, by selecting the issuing country selection section 51E, the issuing country of the patent publication can be selected "United States (US)."

[0063] In response to this selection operation, the selected company "COM1" is the applicant, and the higher patent classification "Subclass C1" corresponding to the selected business "All Businesses" is assigned, and published patent publications issued in the "United States (US)" in the past year are retrieved from database 71 of server 70.

[0064] The screen of the display device 67 of the terminal 60 transitions to the acquisition screen 52 shown in Fig. 7B. The acquisition screen 52 is configured as an interface screen having the functions of the acquisition unit 110.

[0065] The acquisition screen 52 is provided with an acquired publication display section 52A.

[0066] The acquired publication display section 52A displays a list of published patent publications G (US, past year) for which the selected company "COM1" is the applicant and which have been assigned the higher patent classification "Subclass C1" corresponding to the selected business "All businesses."

[0067] The display contents of the acquired publication display unit 52A include information on the total number of patent publications na, type (publication) G1, patent number (application publication number) G2, classification name SP of the assigned lower-level patent classification "subgroup C3", total number Na3 of the assigned lower-level patent classification "subgroup C3", and assigned type number N of the lower-level patent classification "subgroup C3" (S11).

[0068] (Counting process S12 by counting unit 120)

[0069] The counting unit 120 counts the number N of types of lower-level patent classifications assigned to the patent publications acquired by the acquisition unit 110. It is desirable to count the number N of types of lower-level patent classifications assigned to the patent publications acquired by the acquisition unit 110 after removing duplicates (S12).

[0070] FIG. 8 is a diagram for explaining the number of given types N, and shows the content corresponding to the acquired publication display section 52A shown in FIG. 7B.

[0071] As shown in Figure 8, the number of lower patent classifications "subgroups C3" obtained by removing the overlapping numbers indicated by "x" in Figure 8 from the total number C4 (e.g., 8554) of lower patent classifications "subgroups C3" is counted as the number of assigned types N (e.g., 2877) of lower patent classifications "subgroups C3." Note that the number of assigned types N may be corrected using a correction coefficient according to the size of the total number na of patent publications (e.g., 2170), the difference or ratio of the number of patent documents included in the entire subclass, or the ratio of the average number of documents included in each subgroup or main group (S12).

[0072] (Estimation process S13 by the estimation unit 130)

[0073] The estimation unit 130 estimates the business scale S of the company COM to be estimated and / or the scale S of the business to be estimated using the correlation LN between the number N of granted types of the lower patent classification "Subgroup C3" counted by the counting unit 120 and the business scale S of the company COM to be estimated and / or the scale S of the business to be estimated (S13).

[0074] Here, the business scale S corresponds to the company's strength Sa, business sales Sb, and business budget allocation Sc.

[0075] Figure 9A shows the number of granted types N (units) of the lower patent classification "Subgroup C3" granted in the published patent publication G (US, 2020) to which the higher patent classification "Subclass C1" corresponding to "All Businesses" was granted, corresponding to each of companies COM1, COM2, COM3, COM4, ​​COM5, and COM6. The same trends as those in Figure 9A are also shown for other years.

[0076] FIG. 9B illustrates an example of the correlation LN pre-stored in database 71 of server 70. The horizontal axis represents company COM's annual total business sales Sb (billion yen / year) and the vertical axis represents the number of granted types N (units) in the lower-level patent classification "Subgroup C3." The number of granted types N (units) in the lower-level patent classification "Subgroup C3" for each of companies COM1, COM2, COM3, and COM4 illustrated in FIG. 9A is plotted against the total business sales Sb for each of companies COM1, COM2, COM3, and COM4, ​​as shown by P1, P2, P3, and P4 in FIG. 9B. The correlation LN is obtained by calculating the regression line for each of the plots P1, P2, P3, and P4.

[0077] Therefore, when the number N (number of types) of the subordinate patent classification "Subgroup C3" assigned to the patent publication of company COM1 is given, the sales Sb (billion yen / year) of all businesses corresponding to the number N (number of types) can be estimated using the correlation LN stored in database 71 of server 70. The estimation results are displayed in text format, graph format, or other format on the estimation screen of display device 67 of user terminal 60 (S13).

[0078] The subject of estimation can be arbitrarily determined. The sales Sb of a specific company (e.g., COM1) in a specific business (e.g., semiconductor devices: subclass H01L) may be estimated. Alternatively, the sales Sb (market size) of all companies in a specific business (e.g., semiconductor devices: subclass H01L) may be estimated.

[0079] The database 71 of the server 70 may store data in the form of a data table showing the relationship between the number of types N (units) assigned to the lower patent classification "subgroup C3" and the sales Sb.

[0080] In addition, "Subgroup C3" is defined as a lower-level patent classification, and the business scale S is estimated using its granted number of types N (units), but it is also possible to estimate business scale S using the granted number of types N (units) of main group C2. Similarly, it is also possible to estimate business scale S using the granted number of types N (units) of subclass C1. Similarly, it is also possible to estimate business scale S using the granted number of types N (units) of class C0.

[0081] Each embodiment will be described below.

[0082] (1st reference example)

[0083] It is also possible to relatively display the number N (number of items) of assigned types of lower patent classifications.

[0084] FIG. 10A illustrates an estimated screen 510 on the display device 67 of the user terminal 60. As shown in FIG.

[0085] The estimation screen 510 shows an example in which the number of assigned types N (units) of subgroups C3, which are lower-level patent classifications counted for each type of higher-level patent classification (main group C2) for a specific company COM2, is displayed relative to the size of bubble Bb. This relationship diagram is a co-occurrence map created from company COM2's patents, based on the multiple IPC main groups assigned to each patent. From the estimation screen 510 shown in Figure 10A, it can be inferred that for this specific company COM2, the size of bubble Bb corresponding to the semiconductor manufacturing business (H01-21 / , H01-23 / , H01-25 / , H01-27 / , and H01-29 / in main group C2), shown in dashed box T2, is relatively large, indicating that the semiconductor manufacturing business accounts for a relatively large proportion of sales Sb among all business activities.

[0086] 10B, 10C, and 10D respectively show estimated screens 520A, 520B, and 520C of the display device 67 of the user terminal 60. The estimated screens 520A, 520B, and 520C may be displayed on the same screen of the display device 67.

[0087] Estimation screens 520A, 520B, and 520C show examples of the number of granted types N (units) in subgroup C3, which is a lower-level patent classification counted for each type in the higher-level patent classification (main group C2) for specific companies COM3, COM7, and COM8, respectively, displayed relative to the size of bubble Bb. Comparing estimation screens 520A, 520B, and 520C allows for quantitative estimation of the strength Sa of competitors COM3, COM7, and COM8. For example, it is possible to compare the strength Sa of competitors COM3, COM7, and COM8 in the testing and diagnostics (X-ray diagnostic equipment) business, shown in dashed box T1.

[0088] (2nd reference example)

[0089] The rate of change over time of the number of types N of the lower patent classifications assigned may be calculated, and the change in the business scale of the company being estimated and / or the change in the business scale of the business being estimated may be estimated based on the calculated rate of change over time of the number of types N of the lower patent classifications assigned.

[0090] Here, a change in business scale S corresponds to a change in strategic strength Sa, a change in business sales Sb, a change in business budget allocation Sc, and a business trend Sd.

[0091] FIG. 11A illustrates an estimated screen 530 on the display device 67 of the user terminal 60. As shown in FIG.

[0092] For multiple (e.g., 15) companies COM11 to COM25 that are engaged in business related to semiconductor manufacturing equipment, we similarly counted the number of granted types N (units) in subgroup C3, which is a lower-level patent classification, for each type of higher-level patent classification (main group C2), and calculated the rate of change over time G (number of growth / year) in the number of granted types N in subgroup C3. Here, the rate of change over time G (number of growth / year) in the number of granted types N in subgroup C3 is calculated in annual units, with an increase (growth) direction being represented as + and a decrease as -.

[0093] The estimation screen 530 shown in FIG. 11A displays a map M1 whose horizontal axis represents the number of types N (units) of subgroups C3 counted for each type of main group C2, and whose vertical axis represents the rate of change over time G (number / year) of the number of types N of subgroups C3 counted in main group C2. Here, the number of types N (units) of subgroups C3 on the horizontal axis of map M1 is the average number of types N of subgroups C3 for each company COM11-25 for each fiscal year. The rate of change over time G (number / year) of the number of types N of subgroups C3 on the vertical axis of map M1 is also the average number for each fiscal year. The horizontal axis of map M1 represents technology importance, and the vertical axis of map M1 represents technology growth and activity.

[0094] Coordinate points P1 to P17 are plotted on map M1 for each classification name of main group C2. Therefore, the business trend Sd related to semiconductor manufacturing equipment can be inferred from the positions of the plot points P1 to P17 on map M1.

[0095] FIG. 11B illustrates an estimated screen 540 on the display device 67 of the user terminal 60.

[0096] For a specific company COM2 that is engaged in business related to semiconductor manufacturing equipment, we similarly counted the number of granted types N (units) in the subgroup C3, which is a lower patent classification, for each type of higher patent classification (main group C2), and calculated the rate of change G (growth / year) over time of the number of granted types N in subgroup C3.

[0097] The estimation screen 540 shown in Fig. 11B displays a map M2 similar to that shown in Fig. 11A. Here, the number N (number of species) of the assigned species of subgroup C3 on the horizontal axis of map M2 is an average value over several years (for example, four years). The rate of change G (growth / year) of the number N of the assigned species of subgroup C3 on the vertical axis of map M2 is also an average value over several years (for example, four years).

[0098] The position of each plot point P11, P12, P13, PMN on map M2 allows us to infer the business trends Sd of a specific company COM2. For example, we can see that the technology growth and activity of the businesses identified by the IPC within dashed box T3 (G06F 30 / , H01S 5 / , H01L 41 / of main group C2) is high.

[0099] (3rd reference example)

[0100] The granularity of the number of species N assigned to the subclass C1 can be set arbitrarily.

[0101] For example, as illustrated in the first and second reference examples, the number of assigned types N may be counted for each type of main group C2, which is a higher-level patent classification at a level one level above subgroup C3, which is a lower-level patent classification.

[0102] In addition, the number of granted types N may be counted for each type of subclass C1, which is a higher-level patent classification two levels above subgroup C3, which is a lower-level patent classification.

[0103] In addition, the number of types N assigned may be counted for each type of class C0, which is a higher-level patent classification three levels above subgroup C3, which is a lower-level patent classification.

[0104] As the hierarchy of the higher-level patent classification increases from main group C2 to subclass C1 to class C0, the count value of the number of granted types N of subgroup C3, which is a lower-level patent classification, increases. For example, the horizontal and vertical axes of maps M1 and M2 shown in Figures 11A and 11B may represent the number of granted types N (units) of subgroup C3 counted for each type of subclass C1, and the temporal change rate G (number / year) of the number of granted types N of subgroup C3 counted for each type of subclass C1, respectively. Furthermore, the horizontal and vertical axes of maps M1 and M2 shown in Figures 11A and 11B may represent the number of granted types N (units) of subgroup C3 counted for each type of class C0, and the temporal change rate G (number / year) of the number of granted types N of subgroup C3 counted for each type of class C0, respectively.

[0105] (4th reference example)

[0106] 12A and 12B respectively show estimated screens 550A and 550B of the display device 67 of the user terminal 60. The estimated screens 550A and 550B may be displayed on the same screen of the display device 67.

[0107] For all business activities of a specific company COM3, the number of granted types N (units) of subgroup C3, which is a lower patent classification, was counted for each year and for each higher patent classification in each higher hierarchy.

[0108] The horizontal axis of the graph GP1 shown in FIG. 12A indicates each fiscal year (2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021), and the vertical axis indicates the number of species N (N, N1, N2, N3, N4) (pieces) assigned to the subgroup C3.

[0109] The broken line L1 indicates the number of assigned types N of the subgroup C3 (referred to as the total number of assigned types N).

[0110] The broken line L2 indicates the number of assigned types N1 (referred to as the number of existing assigned types N1) of the subgroup C3 in which the types in the previous year and this year are the same.

[0111] The broken line L3 indicates the number of assigned species N3 (called the first seepage assigned species number N2) of subgroup C3, which did not exist in the previous year but was newly assigned this year as belonging to the same type of main group C2.

[0112] The broken line L4 indicates the number of assigned species N4 (referred to as the second seepage assigned species N3) of the subgroup C3, which did not exist in the previous year but was newly assigned this year as belonging to the same type of subclass C1 but a different type of main group C2 from the previous year.

[0113] The broken line L5 shows the number of assigned species N5 (referred to as the number of newly assigned species N4) of subgroup C3, which did not exist in the previous year but was newly assigned this year as belonging to the same type of class C0 but a different type of subclass C1 from the previous year.

[0114] The horizontal axis of graph GP2 shown in Figure 12B indicates each fiscal year (2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021), and the vertical axis indicates the ratio R (R1, R2, R3, R4) of each assigned species N1, N2, N3, N4 (pieces) of subgroup C3 shown in Figure 12A to the total assigned species N.

[0115] The broken line L12 is a broken line corresponding to the broken line L2, and indicates the ratio R1 of the number N1 of existing assigned types to the total number N of assigned types.

[0116] The broken line L13 is a broken line corresponding to the broken line L13, and indicates the ratio R2 of the first seeping imparting species number N2 to the total imparting species number N.

[0117] The broken line L14 is a broken line corresponding to the broken line L14, and indicates the ratio R3 of the second seeping imparting species number N3 to the total imparting species number N.

[0118] The broken line L15 is a broken line corresponding to the broken line L15, and indicates the ratio R4 of the number N4 of new granted types to the total number N of granted types.

[0119] The number of existing granted types N1 and the ratio R1 of the number of existing granted types N1 correspond to the budget allocation Sc for existing businesses. Therefore, the budget allocation Sc for existing businesses of a specific company COM3 can be estimated using the number of existing granted types N1 and the ratio R1 of the number of existing granted types N1.

[0120] The ratio R2 of the first number of exudation grants N2 and the first number of exudation grants N2 corresponds to the budget allocation Sc of the exudation area of ​​the new business. Therefore, the budget allocation Sc of the exudation area of ​​the new business of a specific company COM3 can be estimated using the ratio R2 of the first number of exudation grants N2 and the first number of exudation grants N2.

[0121] The number of second bleed-over grant species N3 and the ratio R3 of the number of second bleed-over grant species N3 correspond to the budget allocation Sc of the bleed-over area of ​​the new business. Therefore, the budget allocation Sc of the bleed-over area of ​​the new business of a specific company COM3 can be estimated using the number of second bleed-over grant species N3 and the ratio R3 of the number of second bleed-over grant species N3.

[0122] The number of newly granted types N4 and the ratio R4 of the number of newly granted types N4 correspond to the budget allocation Sc of the new business spillover area. Therefore, the budget allocation Sc of the new business of a specific company COM3 can be estimated using the number of newly granted types N4 and the ratio R4 of the number of newly granted types N4.

[0123] (Second reference form)

[0124] The second embodiment will be described below, and descriptions of configurations and processes that overlap with those of the first embodiment will be omitted where appropriate.

[0125] The business scale estimation device 200 of the second reference form includes a first acquisition unit 210, a second acquisition unit 220, a first counting unit 230, a second counting unit 240, a calculation unit 250, and an estimation unit 260, and executes a program PB1B having the processing procedure shown in Figure 6B.

[0126] (First acquisition process S21 by the first acquisition unit 210 and second acquisition process S22 by the second acquisition unit 220)

[0127] The first acquisition unit 210 acquires patent publications to which the higher-level patent classification "main group C2" corresponding to the business to be estimated has been assigned (S21). The second acquisition unit 220 acquires patent publications in which the company to be estimated is the applicant from the patent publications acquired by the first acquisition unit 210 (S22).

[0128] These acquisition processes can be performed in the same manner as in FIGS. 7A and 7B.

[0129] The user can perform an operation on the selection screen 51 to select a business and a company to be estimated.

[0130] For example, by selecting the company selection section 51A, the company "COM2" can be selected. By selecting the business acquisition instruction section 51B, the business "semiconductor manufacturing" can be selected. By selecting the publication type selection section 51C, the "publication publication" can be selected. By selecting the publication period selection section 51D, the publication period of the patent publication "2021" can be selected. By selecting the issuing country selection section 51E, the issuing country of the patent publication "United States (US)" can be selected.

[0131] In response to this selection operation, the higher-level patent classification "Main Group C2" (H01L 021 / , H01L 023 / ) corresponding to the selected business "Semiconductor Manufacturing" is assigned, and the published patent gazette Ga issued in the "United States (US)" in "Fiscal Year 2021" is retrieved from the database 71 of the server 70 (S21).

[0132] Furthermore, among the published patent publications Ga, published patent publication Gc2 in which the selected company "COM2" is the applicant, that is, published patent publication Gc2 which is assigned the higher patent classification "Main Group C2" (H01L 021 / , H01L 023 / ) corresponding to the selected business "semiconductor manufacturing", has the selected company "COM2" as the applicant, and was issued in the "United States (US)" in "fiscal year 2021", is retrieved from database 71 of server 70 (S21).

[0133] (Counting process S23 by the first counting unit 230 and counting process S24 by the second counting unit 240)

[0134] The first counting unit 230 counts the first assigned number of types N of the subordinate patent classification "subgroup C3" assigned to the patent publication Ga acquired by the first acquisition unit 210 (S23). The second counting unit 240 counts the second assigned number of types NC2 of the subordinate patent classification "subgroup C3" assigned to the patent publication Gc2 acquired by the second acquisition unit 220 (S24). Note that when counting the first assigned number of types N and the second assigned number of types NC2, it is desirable to remove duplicates before counting.

[0135] (Calculation process S25 by calculation unit 250)

[0136] The calculation unit 250 calculates the granted type number share rate NC2 / N by dividing the second granted type number NC2 of the lower patent classification "subgroup C3" by the first granted type number N of the lower patent classification "subgroup C3". The granted type number share rate NC2 / N corresponds to the business scale share rate of the selected estimation target company "COM2" (S25).

[0137] (Estimation process S26 by the estimation unit 260)

[0138] The estimation unit 260 estimates the business scale share Sr of the business scale Sc2 of the estimation target company "COM2" in the scale S of the estimation target business "semiconductor manufacturing" using the assigned type number share NC2 / N calculated by the calculation unit 250. The estimation result is displayed on the estimation screen of the display device 67 of the user terminal 60 in a format such as text or graph (S26).

[0139] (5th reference example)

[0140] FIG. 13A illustrates an estimated screen 560A on the display device 67 of the user terminal 60. As shown in FIG.

[0141] The estimation screen 560A is assigned the higher-level patent classification "Main Group C2" (H01L 021 / , H01L 023 / ) corresponding to the business "Semiconductor Manufacturing," and displays the total number of published patent publications Ga issued in the "United States (US)" in "2021" (e.g., 3,612).

[0142] The estimation screen 560A also displays the first assigned number N (for example, 992) of the subordinate patent classification "Subgroup C3" assigned to the published patent publication Ga.

[0143] Also, on the estimated screen 560A, the selected company "COM2" is listed as the applicant, and the higher-level patent classification "Main Group C2" (H01L 021 / , H01L 023 / ) corresponding to the business "Semiconductor Manufacturing" is assigned, and the number of published patent bulletins Gc2 issued in the "United States (US)" in "2021" is displayed as nc2 (for example, 916).

[0144] The estimation screen 560A also displays the second assigned number of types NC2 (for example, 256) of the subordinate patent classification "Subgroup C3" assigned to the published patent application Gc2.

[0145] The estimation screen 560A also displays the share of the number of granted types NC2 / N (0.26:26%) of the selected company "COM2."

[0146] The estimation screen 560A also displays the publication issue share nc2 / na (0.25:25%) of the selected company "COM2."

[0147] For comparison, the estimated screen 560A also displays the number of published patent publications Gc31 issued by another company "COM31" (nc31, for example, 212), the second number of granted types NC31 (for example, 125), the number of granted types share NC31 / N (0.13:13%), the number of published patent publications share nc31 / na (0.06:6%), and the number of published patent publications Gc4 issued by another company "COM4" (nc4, for example, 155), the second number of granted types NC4 (for example, 103), the number of granted types share NC4 / N (0.10:10%), the number of published patent publications share nc4 / na (0.04:4%).

[0148] From the estimation screen 560A, it can be estimated that the company "COM2" has a larger share of the number of granted types NC2 / N (0.26:26%) compared to other companies, and a higher business scale share Sr for the "semiconductor manufacturing" business.

[0149] FIG. 13B illustrates another estimated screen 560B on the display device 67 of the user terminal 60. As shown in FIG.

[0150] The estimated screen 560B is assigned the higher-level patent classification "Main Group C2" (A61B 001 / , G06T 007 / ) corresponding to the business "Endoscopy," and displays the total number of published patent publications Ga issued in the "United States (US)" from "2018 to 2021" (e.g., 468 cases).

[0151] The estimation screen 560B also displays the first assigned number N (for example, 363) of the subordinate patent classification "Subgroup C3" assigned to the published patent publication Ga.

[0152] Furthermore, the estimated screen 560B shows that the selected company "COM32" is the applicant, and that the higher-level patent classification "Main Group C2" (A61B 001 / , G06T 007 / ) corresponding to the intersection of the business "endoscopic examination" and the related "image processing" has been assigned, and the number of published patent bulletins Gc32 issued in the "United States (US)" from "2018 to 2021" nc32 (for example, 82 cases) is displayed.

[0153] The estimation screen 560B also displays the second assigned number of species NC32 (for example, 99) of the subordinate patent classification "Subgroup C3" assigned to the published patent application Gc32.

[0154] The estimation screen 560B also displays the share of the number of granted types NC32 / N (0.27:27%) of the selected company "COM32."

[0155] The estimation screen 560B also displays the publication issue share nc32 / na (0.18:18%) of the selected company "COM32."

[0156] For comparison, the estimated screen 560B also displays the number of publications nc7 (e.g., 46) of the published patent publication Gc7 of another company "COM7," the second number of granted types NC7 (e.g., 56), the share of the number of granted types NC7 / N (0.15:15%), and the share of the number of publications nc7 / na (0.10:10%).

[0157] From the estimation screen 560B, it can be estimated that the company "COM32" has a larger share of the number of granted types NC32 / N (0.27:27%) compared to other companies, and a higher business scale share Sr for the "endoscopic examination" business that uses "image processing."

[0158] (Third reference form)

[0159] The third embodiment will be described below, and descriptions of configurations and processes that overlap with those of the first and second embodiments will be omitted where appropriate.

[0160] The business scale estimation device 300 of the third reference embodiment includes an acquisition unit 310, a performance value acquisition unit 320, a counting unit 330, and a prediction model generation unit 340, and executes a program PB1C having a processing procedure shown in FIG. 6C.

[0161] (Acquisition process S31 by acquisition unit 310)

[0162] The acquisition unit 310 acquires patent publications Gc32, Gc33, Gc34, . . . Gc47 whose applicants are multiple (for example, 16) companies COM32, COM33, COM34, . . . COM47 that are the subject of estimation (S31).

[0163] (Actual value acquisition process S32 by the actual value acquisition unit 320)

[0164] The actual value acquisition unit 320 acquires a business scale actual value Sk indicating the actual value (e.g., actual value of sales Sb of the electrical equipment business) Sk of the scale (e.g., sales Sb) of the business ("electrical equipment business") corresponding to the higher-level patent classification "subclass C1" ("cx1," "cx2," "cx3," "cx4," "cx5," "cx6") assigned to the patent publications Gc32, Gc33, Gc34, ..., Gc47 acquired by the acquisition unit 310. For example, the business scale actual value Sk (e.g., actual value of sales Sb of the electrical equipment business) is read and acquired from the database 71 of the server 70. Note that "cx1," "cx2," "cx3," "cx4," "cx5," and "cx6" respectively indicate the classification names of the subgroup C1, such as "G03G." Note that, here, six subclasses are used as variables as an example, but of course, a method of increasing or decreasing them according to information from multivariate analysis may also be used (S32).

[0165] (Counting process S33 by counting unit 330)

[0166] The counting unit 33 counts the number of types Nk1, Nk2, Nk3, Nk4, Nk5, and Nk6 assigned to the lower patent classification "subgroup C3" for each type "cx1," "cx2," "cx3," "cx4," "cx5," and "cx6" of the higher patent classification (subclass C1) assigned to the patent publications Gc32, Gc33, Gc34, ..., Gc47 acquired by the acquisition unit 310 (S33).

[0167] (Prediction model generation process S34 by the prediction model generation unit 340)

[0168] The prediction model generation unit 340 generates a business scale prediction model M for predicting the number of granted types Nx1, Nx2, Nx3, Nx4, Nx5, Nx6 of the lower patent classifications and / or the business scale Sy based on the granted type count values ​​Nk1, Nk2, Nk3, Nk4, Nk5, Nk6 of the lower patent classification "subgroup C3" counted for each type "cx1", "cx2", "cx3", "cx4", "cx5", and "cx6" of the higher patent classification (subclass C1) counted by the counting unit 330 and the business scale actual value Sk acquired by the actual value acquisition unit 320. The business scale prediction model M uses the numbers Nx1, Nx2, Nx3, Nx4, Nx5, and Nx6 of the types of the lower patent classification "subgroup C3" counted for each of the types "cx1," "cx2," "cx3," "cx4," "cx5," and "cx6" of the higher patent classification (subclass C1) as explanatory variables, and the business scale (for example, business sales Sb) Sy as the objective variable (S34).

[0169] (6th reference example)

[0170] Analysis methods such as linear regression analysis, including simple regression analysis and multiple regression analysis, can be applied to the business scale prediction model M. In addition to linear regression, various methods such as regression using principal component analysis, LASSO regression, and RIDGE regression can be applied to the business scale prediction model M. For example, nonlinear regression analysis methods such as logistic regression analysis and polynomial regression analysis can be applied.

[0171] The business scale prediction model M using multiple regression analysis can be expressed by the following equation (1).

[0172] Sy =β0+β1·Nx1+β2·Nx2+β3·Nx3+β4·Nx4+β5·Nx5+β6·Nx6

[0173] ···(1)

[0174] The regression coefficients β0, β1, β2, β3, β4, β5, β6 are calculated so that the sum of the squares of the differences between the assigned species count values ​​Nk1, Nk2, Nk3, Nk4, Nk5, Nk6 of "subgroup C3" obtained for each company COM32, COM33, COM34, ... COM47 and the actual business scale value (for example, electrical business sales Sb) Sk data obtained for each company COM32, COM33, COM34, ... COM47 is minimized.

[0175] The calculated values ​​of the regression coefficients β0, β1, β2, β3, β4, β5, and β6 are shown in FIG. 14A.

[0176] Fig. 14B shows a regression curve LM corresponding to the business scale prediction model M. The horizontal axis of Fig. 14B shows business sales Sy calculated from the business scale prediction model M. The vertical axis of Fig. 14B shows actual sales value Sk.

[0177] Plot points P32, P33, P34...P47 plot the business sales (Sy, Sk) of companies COM32, COM33, COM34...COM47, respectively. Note that this also includes cases where the same company operates in different fiscal years.

[0178] In the example of formula (1) above, all of the numbers of granted types Nx1, Nx2, Nx3, Nx4, Nx5, and Nx6 of subgroup C3, counted for each of the types "cx1," "cx2," "cx3," "cx4," "cx5," and "cx6" of multiple (six) higher-level patent classifications (subclasses C1), are obtained as explanatory variables of the business scale prediction model M. However, it is also possible to obtain any one or a combination of two or more of the numbers of granted types Nx1, Nx2, Nx3, Nx4, Nx5, and Nx6 of subgroup C3 as explanatory variables of the business scale prediction model M. For example, a brute force method may be used to select the combination of the numbers of granted types that minimizes the squared error as the explanatory variables of the business scale prediction model M.

[0179] (7th reference example)

[0180] Using the business scale prediction model M, it is possible to predict changes in business sales Sy by changing, deleting, etc. one or more of the numbers Nx1, Nx2, Nx3, Nx4, Nx5, and Nx6 of the numbers of types to be granted for subgroup C3. Also, using the business scale prediction model M, it is possible to predict the optimal number of types to be granted by optimally allocating the numbers Nx1, Nx2, Nx3, Nx4, Nx5, and Nx6 of the numbers to be granted for subgroup C3. The business scale prediction model M is assumed to be stored in database 71 of server 70.

[0181] FIG. 15A illustrates an estimated screen 570 on the display device 67 of the user terminal 60. As shown in FIG.

[0182] The estimation conditions can be set on the estimation screen 570.

[0183] For example, the user can change or delete the numbers of assigned species Nx1, Nx2, Nx3, Nx4, Nx5, and Nx6 of subgroup C3 in subgroup assigned species number setting section 571 on estimation screen 570.

[0184] The user can set a target value Sd for the business sales Sy in the sales target value setting section 572 of the estimation screen 570, for example.

[0185] The user can set the company to be estimated, for example, COM32, in the company setting section 573 of the estimation screen 570, for example.

[0186] For example, suppose that a change to "increase by one" the number of Nx5 assigned species of subgroup C3 belonging to the type "cx5" of subclass C1 is set in subgroup assigned species setting section 571 of estimation screen 570, and a company to be estimated, for example COM32, is set in company setting section 573. Using business scale prediction model M stored in database 71 of server 70 in accordance with this change setting, the change in business sales Sy for the set company COM32 when "increasing by one" the number of Nx5 assigned species of subgroup C3 belonging to the type "cx5" of subclass C1 is calculated.

[0187] The display screen of the display device 67 of the user terminal 60 transitions to an estimation result display screen 575 shown in FIG. 15B.

[0188] The estimation result display section 576 of the estimation result display screen 575 displays the business sales Sk (for example, 510 billion yen) of company COM32 before the change, the business sales Sy (528.6 billion yen) when the number of assigned species Nx5 of subgroup C3 belonging to type "cx5" of subclass C1 is "increased by one," and the increase in sales (18.6 billion yen).

[0189] Also, for example, assume that the target value Sd for business sales Sy is set in the sales target value setting section 572 of the estimation screen 570, and the company to be estimated, for example, COM32, is set in the company setting section 573. In accordance with this target value setting, the business scale prediction model M stored in the database 71 of the server 70 is used to calculate the optimal numbers of allotted types Nx1d, Nx2d, Nx3d, Nx4d, Nx5d, and Nx6d for the subgroup C3 corresponding to the target value Sd of business sales Sy for the set company COM32. For example, the optimal numbers of allotted types Nx1d, Nx2d, Nx3d, Nx4d, Nx5d, and Nx6d are calculated using the business scale prediction model M so that the target value Sd for the set business sales Sy is obtained and the total number of allotted types is minimized.

[0190] The display screen of the display device 67 of the user terminal 60 transitions to an estimation result display screen 580 shown in FIG. 15C.

[0191] The estimation result display section 581 of the estimation result display screen 580 displays the target value Sd of the business sales Sy of company COM32 and the optimal allocation species Nx1d, Nx2d, Nx3d, Nx4d, Nx5d, and Nx6d of subgroup C3 for obtaining the target value Sd of the business sales Sy of company COM32.

[0192] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In the following, components similar to those described in the reference embodiment will be assigned the same reference numerals and their description will be omitted as appropriate. Furthermore, terms that are the same as those used in the reference embodiment will be treated as the same and their description will be omitted as appropriate.

[0193] (First embodiment)

[0194] In the first embodiment, a first patent classification and a second patent classification, which are based on different classification methods, are used for patent classification.

[0195] The first patent classification is the CPC (Cooperative Patent Classification) or FI (File Index)

[0196] The second patent classification is the IPC (International Patent Classification).

[0197] (Acquisition process S11 by acquisition unit 110)

[0198] The acquisition unit 110 acquires patent publications in which the company to be estimated is the applicant and / or patent publications to which the first patent classification corresponding to the business to be estimated has been assigned (S11).

[0199] That is, the patent classification (for example, IPC) in the first reference form is replaced with the first patent classification (CPC or FI), and an acquisition process is executed to acquire the patent publication in the same manner as in the first reference form.

[0200] In the first embodiment, for example, the business scale of an electronics company can be estimated. In this application, an electronics company is a company in which at least half of the IPC subclasses in its patent applications are classified into subclasses G or H.

[0201] The patent publications targeted in the first embodiment may be limited to those of a single country or region. However, it is also possible to target patent publications of multiple countries or regions, such as patent publications of the United States and Europe, or patent publications of China, Japan, and India. The patent publications targeted in the first embodiment are preferably patent publications of the United States or Europe, and more preferably patent publications of the United States.

[0202] In the first embodiment, it is desirable that the patent publications targeted are those whose applications were filed in January 2011 or later. The IPC is a global standard for patent classification and also serves as the basis for other patent classifications. Until 2010, the IPC had two classifications for patent publications of patent applications: advanced level and core level. However, the IPC was unified into the advanced level in January 2011, which made it possible to estimate business scale with greater accuracy.

[0203] When using the CPC as the first patent classification in the first embodiment, it is desirable to apply it to patent publications of patent applications filed in or after 2013. This is because CPCs attached to patent publications of patent applications filed before that date were from a period before the CPC came into operation in the United States, and so there is a possibility that the accuracy of the CPC may be unreliable.

[0204] It is desirable that the first patent classification used in the acquisition process for acquiring patent publications is more detailed than the second patent classification used in the counting process described below. More specifically, it is desirable that the total number of the most detailed classifications in the first patent classification used in the acquisition process is greater than the total number of the most detailed classifications in the second patent classification.

[0205] The number of types of CPC is three to four times that of IPC. For this reason, when IPC is used as the second patent classification, CPC is more detailed than the second patent classification, making it suitable for use as the first patent classification used in the acquisition process. Similarly, FI in Japanese patents is about three times more detailed than the second patent classification, IPC, making it suitable for use as the first patent classification used in the acquisition process. Similarly, F-terms are more detailed than the second patent classification, IPC, making it suitable for use as the first patent classification used in the acquisition process.

[0206] Specifically, in the acquisition process, patent publications corresponding to the business domain are acquired. For example, when estimating the business scale of all healthcare business domains for company COM1, patent publications of company COM1 with CPC (or FI) assigned to a first patent classification related to healthcare informatics, for example, a patent classification lower than G16H, are acquired, as well as patent publications of company COM1 with CPC (or FI) assigned to a first patent classification related to diagnosis; surgery; personal identification, for example, a patent classification lower than A61B.

[0207] In this way, patent publications of company COM1 that have been assigned CPC (or FI) in at least one of the lower patent classifications of G16H and A61B are considered to be patent publications related to the healthcare business of company COM1, and all patent publications related to the healthcare business of company COM1 are obtained. Patent publications assigned the first patent classification can be found on search sites provided by patent offices of various overseas countries, as well as various commercial tools, and in Japan, the patent search tool provided by INPIT.

[0208] (https: / / www.j-platpat.inpit.go.jp / )

[0209] The second patent classification can be extracted from the patent classification assigned to each patent or obtained using the above sites and tools.

[0210] (Counting process S12 by counting unit 120)

[0211] The counting unit 120 counts the number N of types of patent classifications assigned to the patent publications acquired by the acquisition unit 110, which is the number N of types of second patent classifications that are a classification method different from the first patent classification. It is desirable to count the number N of types of second patent classifications assigned to the patent publications acquired by the acquisition unit 110 after removing duplicates (S12).

[0212] As mentioned above, it is desirable for the second patent classification to be the IPC, and in particular to use subgroups, main groups, and subclasses of the IPC.

[0213] That is, the patent classification (for example, IPC) in the first reference form is replaced with the second patent classification (IPC) as is, and the counting process for counting the number of assigned types N is executed in the same manner as in the first reference form.

[0214] Furthermore, patent publications may be classified by business area according to the type of CPC (or FI) assigned to the patent publications, and the number of types N assigned may be counted for each group of classified patent publications using the second patent classification, IPC. This makes it possible to estimate the business scale for each business area.

[0215] In the first embodiment, the number of assigned types N is defined to mean both the total number of second patent classifications assigned to patent publications and the number of types of patent classifications obtained by excluding duplicates from the total number assigned.

[0216] (Estimation process S13 by the estimation unit 130)

[0217] The estimation unit 130 estimates the business scale S of the company COM to be estimated and / or the scale S of the business to be estimated using the correlation LN between the number N of assigned types of the second patent classification counted by the counting unit 120 and the business scale S of the company COM to be estimated and / or the scale S of the business to be estimated (S13).

[0218] That is, the patent classification (for example, IPC) in the first reference form is replaced with the second patent classification (IPC) as is, and the estimation process is performed in the same manner as in the first reference form.

[0219] The number of types N assigned may be either the total number assigned or the number of types of patent classification excluding overlaps. Each embodiment will be described below.

[0220] (Example 1) Estimation process using the number of assigned species N as the total number of assigned species

[0221] Here, the total number of IPC classifications assigned, N, refers to the sum of the number of IPC classifications assigned to each patent publication. Each patent publication is assigned one or more IPC classifications. A linear approximation of the correlation between the total number of IPC classifications assigned, N, and business scale reveals a correlation. For example, the contribution amount (also known as the technology unit cost) of one IPC to business scale was calculated based on the U.S. patents published between 2017 and 2020, the annual sales of various electrical manufacturers, and the U.S. patents published between 2017 and 2020. The coefficient of determination for the correlation between the total number of IPC classifications assigned, N, and business scale is 0.5–0.6, indicating a positive correlation. Therefore, the business scale, S, of each business can be estimated by multiplying the total number, N, of IPCs assigned to patent publications classified by business by the contribution amount (e.g., the technology unit cost in the range of 5 million to 10 million dollars).

[0222] (Example 2) Estimation process using the number of assigned types N as the number of types of patent classifications excluding overlaps

[0223] When the granted type N and business scale S are approximated to the first order, the coefficient of determination exceeds 0.8, revealing a strong positive correlation. As in Example 1, when the contribution amount (technology unit price) to business scale per type of IPC was calculated from the IPCs granted in U.S. published patent publications, it was calculated to be between 25 million and 35 million US dollars.

[0224] The estimated amount of business contribution can be calculated by matching the sales year and the patent publication year to the same year, or by using a lag of one to three years depending on the characteristics of the business. When calculating the optimal value for the lag period, the coefficient of determination of a first order approximation can be used as a reference. For example, the contribution amount can be calculated by setting the lag period so that the coefficient of determination is the highest.

[0225] Figure 16 shows the changes over time in sales per IPC (billion yen / point = Pt) for the healthcare business for Company COM1 (solid line) and Company COM2 (dotted line). In Figure 16, the solid line shows sales per IPC for Company COM1, and the dotted line shows sales per IPC for Company COM2. The dashed-dotted line also shows changes over time in the exchange rate (yen / dollar).

[0226] The graph in FIG. 16 is obtained as follows.

[0227] That is, for each of the companies COM1 and COM2, obtain the U.S. published patent publications with CPCs G16H or A61B.

[0228] Next, for each of the companies COM1 and COM2, the numbers of IPCs (IPC subgroups) assigned to the acquired U.S. patent publications are counted, excluding overlaps, to obtain the numbers N1 and N2 of assigned types.

[0229] Next, the sales for the healthcare business of each of companies COM1 and COM2 from 2020 to 2022 are divided by the number of IPCs N1 and N2 granted in the U.S. published patent publications published in the previous year to calculate the sales amount per IPC (billion yen / point = Pt). Here, the reason for dividing by the number of IPCs granted in patents published in the previous year is that, as a result of the calculation described in paragraph (0223), it was deemed that the method of dividing by the number of IPCs granted one year earlier was more accurate.

[0230] As can be seen from Figure 16, for both companies COM1 and COM2, sales per IPC have gradually increased between 1.5 billion and 2 billion yen. Assume that the average business scale (S) per IPC for Japanese and American companies, or the contribution amount (unit technology cost), is US$30 million. Applying the yen / dollar exchange rate, sales per IPC for each of companies COM1 and COM2 (1.5 billion to 2 billion yen) is 40-50% of the contribution amount (unit technology cost) of US$30 million. This shows that for the healthcare businesses of these companies, the contribution amount (unit technology cost) for the period under review was roughly 50% of sales per IPC, compared to the average for companies with sales exceeding 500 billion yen. Furthermore, since the unit price trends are roughly in line with exchange rate fluctuations, we can infer that these companies' sales are significantly influenced by overseas sales.

[0231] Therefore, the business scale S in 2023 can be estimated from the sales per IPC related to the healthcare business in 2022. In other words, if we determine the number of IPCs granted in the group of US published patents published in 2022, we can estimate that the business scale in 2023 will be multiplied by 50% of the average unit price. If we can improve development and business operations and increase sales per IPC type, for example, from 50% of the average, to the average per IPC, or 100%, by strengthening development and business operations, we can estimate that sales will double.

[0232] Example 3

[0233] The estimated business scale may be displayed on the screen of the display device 67 of the terminal 60.

[0234] FIG. 17 shows an example of an estimated screen on the display device 67 of the user terminal 60.

[0235] FIG. 17 is a co-occurrence map showing the number of IPC subgroups N (items) assigned to each business area of ​​the healthcare business for company COM1, relative to the size of bubble Bb.

[0236] The co-occurrence map shown in FIG. 17 is created as follows.

[0237] For patent applications filed by company COM1, we retrieve patent publications from U.S. published patent publications from 2018 to 2022 that have been assigned CPCs related to the healthcare business. Next, we create a co-occurrence map of the patents to which those publications are assigned based on the IPCs assigned to those patents. Initially, the bubble size can be determined by the number of patents, and the presence or absence of connections between IPC main groups and the distance between bubbles can be determined using an index measuring the similarity of sets, such as the Jaccard coefficient. We then adjust the bubble size by replacing the bubble size based on the number of patents with the number of IPC subgroups contained within it. Alternatively, as another method, we count the number of IPC subgroups N assigned to each IPC main group assigned to the retrieved patent publication. In either case, we display the IPC main group name (e.g., "Ultrasound" or "A61B8 / ") associated with a bubble Bb of a size corresponding to the number N of IPC subgroups counted. Such a map can be created only for patents that have been previously classified using a specific patent classification, or it is possible to create a co-occurrence map and visualize all patents using CPC connections, and then create a new IPC map from the group of patents classified there based on the identified patent classification.

[0238] As shown in Figure 17, the size of each business area in Company COM1's healthcare business is visualized using bubbles Bb of a size corresponding to the number of IPC subgroup types N. The connections between each business area in Company COM1's healthcare business are also visualized by the connections between the IPC main groups. For each business area in the healthcare business, the size of the bubbles Bb can be estimated based on the connections between the bubbles Bb, indicating the related technological elements and the extent to which the technological elements affect each business area.

[0239] The co-occurrence map shown in Figure 17 can also be used to estimate the business scale of a merger between two companies. For example, a co-occurrence map for companies COM1 and COM2 is created in advance. If companies COM1 and COM2 merge, the business scale of the merged company will temporarily be the sum of the business scales of COM1 and COM2. The size of each business area after the merger corresponds to the sum of the number of IPC subgroups assigned, N. Therefore, the degree to which the efficiency of technological development will improve can be calculated as the increase in unit price when the sum of business scales is divided by the number of assigned subgroups. Although surplus personnel and development costs may also be generated at the same time, their magnitude can be estimated. Alternatively, if these resources are reallocated to other technological developments, it is possible to assume that the number of subgroups in those other technological developments can be increased purely by the same amount, and estimate the potential for increased sales from the resulting new developments. In this case, the unit price per IPC (which can be expressed as a percentage of the average) can also be included in the calculation.

[0240] (Second embodiment)

[0241] The first and second patent classifications in the first embodiment may be interchanged and implemented in the same manner.

[0242] The first patent classification of the second embodiment is IPC, and the second patent classification is CPC or FI.

[0243] (Third embodiment)

[0244] In the third embodiment, a first patent classification and a second patent classification, which are different in classification method, are used for the patent classification.

[0245] The first patent classification is CPC or FI

[0246] The second patent classification is IPC.

[0247] (First acquisition process S21 by the first acquisition unit 210 and second acquisition process S22 by the second acquisition unit 220)

[0248] The first acquisition unit 210 acquires patent publications to which a first patent classification corresponding to the business to be estimated has been assigned (S21). The second acquisition unit 220 acquires patent publications in which the company to be estimated is the applicant from the patent publications acquired by the first acquisition unit 210 (S22).

[0249] That is, the patent classification (e.g., IPC) in the second reference form is replaced with the first patent classification (CPC or FI), and a first acquisition process and a second acquisition process are executed to acquire the patent publication in the same manner as in the second reference form.

[0250] (Counting process S23 by the first counting unit 230 and counting process S24 by the second counting unit 240)

[0251] The first counting unit 230 counts the first assigned number of kinds N assigned to the patent publications acquired by the first acquisition unit 210, the first assigned number of kinds N of the second patent classification being a classification method different from the first patent classification (S23). The second counting unit 240 counts the second assigned number of kinds NC2 assigned to the patent publications acquired by the second acquisition unit 220, the second assigned number of kinds NC2 of the second patent classification being a classification method different from the first patent classification (S24). Note that when counting the first assigned number of kinds N and the second assigned number of kinds NC2, it is desirable to remove duplicates before counting.

[0252] That is, the patent classification (e.g., IPC) in the second reference form is replaced directly with the second patent classification (IPC), and the first counting process and the second counting process are executed in the same manner as in the second reference form to count the first assigned type number N and the second assigned type number NC2.

[0253] (Calculation process S25 by calculation unit 250)

[0254] The calculation unit 250 calculates the assigned species number occupancy rate NC2 / N by dividing the second assigned species number NC2 by the first assigned species number N (S25). That is, the calculation process is executed in the same manner as in the second reference embodiment.

[0255] (Estimation process S26 by the estimation unit 260)

[0256] The estimation unit 260 estimates the business scale share Sr of the business scale Sc2 of the enterprise to be estimated in the scale S of the business to be estimated, using the share NC2 / N of the number of assigned types calculated by the calculation unit 250 (S26). That is, the calculation process is executed in the same manner as in the second reference embodiment.

[0257] (Fourth embodiment)

[0258] The first patent classification and the second patent classification in the third embodiment may be interchanged and implemented in the same manner.

[0259] The first patent classification of the fourth embodiment is IPC, and the second patent classification is CPC or FI. [Explanation of symbols]

[0260] 100 Business size estimation device 200 Business size estimation device 300 Business size estimation device 110 Acquisition Department 120 Counting Unit 130 Estimation part 210 First acquisition part 220 Second Acquisition Department 230 First Counting Section 240 Second Counting Department 250 Calculation Unit 260 Estimation Department 310 Acquisition Department 320 Actual Value Acquisition Unit 330 Counting Unit 340 Prediction model generation unit

Claims

1. an acquisition unit that acquires patent publications in which the company to be estimated is the applicant and / or patent publications to which a first patent classification corresponding to the business of the company to be estimated is assigned; a counting unit that counts the number of types of patent classifications assigned to the patent publications acquired by the acquisition unit, the number of types of second patent classifications that are classification methods different from the first patent classification; an estimation unit that estimates the business scale of the company to be estimated and / or the business scale of the business to be estimated using a correlation between the number of assigned types of the second patent classification counted by the counting unit and the business scale of the company to be estimated and / or the business scale of the business to be estimated; A business scale estimation device equipped with the above.

2. the counting unit counts the number of types of the second patent classification assigned to the patent publications acquired by the acquisition unit, removing duplicates; The business scale estimation device according to claim 1 .

3. The first patent classification is a Cooperative Patent Classification (CPC) or a File Index (FI), The business scale estimation device according to claim 1 or 2.

4. The second patent classification is the IPC (International Patent Classification), The business scale estimation device according to claim 3 .

5. a first acquisition unit that acquires patent publications to which a first patent classification corresponding to the business to be estimated has been assigned; a second acquisition unit that acquires patent publications in which the target company is the applicant from among the patent publications acquired by the first acquisition unit; a first counting unit that counts the number of first assigned types assigned to the patent publications acquired by the first acquisition unit, the number of first assigned types being a second patent classification that is a classification method different from the first patent classification; a second counting unit that counts the number of second assigned types of a second patent classification that is a classification method different from the first patent classification, the second assigned type being the number of second assigned types assigned to the patent publication acquired by the second acquisition unit; a calculation unit that calculates an assigned species number occupancy rate by dividing the second assigned species number by the first assigned species number; An estimation unit that estimates a business scale share of the business scale of the enterprise to be estimated in the business scale of the business to be estimated using the share of the number of granted types calculated by the calculation unit; A business scale estimation device equipped with the above.

6. On the computer, an acquisition process for acquiring patent publications in which the presumed target company is the applicant and / or patent publications to which a first patent classification corresponding to the presumed target business has been assigned; a counting process for counting the number of types of patent classifications assigned to the patent publications acquired in the acquisition process, the number of types of second patent classifications being a classification method different from the first patent classification; an estimation process for estimating the business scale of the enterprise to be estimated and / or the business scale of the enterprise to be estimated, using the correlation between the number of types of the second patent classification assigned in the counting process and the business scale of the enterprise to be estimated and / or the business scale of the enterprise to be estimated; A program for estimating business scale.

7. On the computer, a first acquisition process for acquiring a patent publication to which a first patent classification corresponding to the business to be estimated has been assigned; a second acquisition process for acquiring patent publications in which the target company is the applicant from among the patent publications acquired in the first acquisition process; a first counting process for counting the number of first assigned types of a second patent classification, which is a classification method different from the first patent classification, assigned to the patent publication acquired in the first acquisition process; a second counting process for counting the number of second assigned types of a second patent classification that is a classification method different from the first patent classification, the second assigned type being assigned to the patent publication acquired in the second acquisition process; a calculation process for calculating an occupancy rate of the number of assigned species by dividing the second number of assigned species by the first number of assigned species; An estimation process for estimating the business scale share of the business scale of the enterprise to be estimated in the business scale of the business to be estimated using the share of the number of granted types calculated in the calculation process; A program for estimating business scale.

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