Planning support device, planning support method, and planning support program

Abstract

This invention provides a planning support device, a planning support method, and a planning support program that can assist in determining policy implementation plans that take into account future changes in the effectiveness and costs of those policies. [Solution] The system includes a decision unit that determines a policy implementation plan, including the decarbonization measures to be implemented and the timing of their implementation, using future trend information relating to the future trends of at least one of the decarbonization effects and policy costs of the decarbonization measures, an effect target which is a target value relating to the decarbonization effects, and a cost target which is a target value relating to the policy costs.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a planning support device, a planning support method, and a planning support program.

Background Art

[0002] As a technology related to planning support, for example, Patent Document 1 discloses a technology for presenting an introduction plan for economically achieving environmental goals.

[0003] In the introduction support system for environmental load reduction means described in Patent Document 1, the evaluation unit evaluates the environmental low-load ratio and economic efficiency for candidate means for increasing the environmental low-load ratio based on the predicted change in the energy consumption of the business operator and the predicted result of the change in the business environment of the business operator. The presentation unit presents an introduction plan that includes one or more candidate means and achieves the environmental goal based on the environmental low-load ratio and economic efficiency evaluated by the evaluation unit.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0004]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0005] However, in the invention described in Patent Document 1, it is not possible to determine the implementation plan of the measures in consideration of the future changes in the effects and costs of the measures themselves (for example, corresponding to the environmental load reduction means described in Patent Document 1).

[0006] The present disclosure has been made in view of these problems. One of the objectives of the present disclosure is to provide a planning support device, a planning support method, and a planning support program that can support the determination of a measure implementation plan in consideration of future changes in the effects and costs of the measures.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0007] The planning support device disclosed herein includes a decision unit that determines a policy implementation plan, including the decarbonization measures to be implemented and the timing of their implementation, using future trend information relating to the future trends of at least one of the decarbonization effects and policy costs of the decarbonization measures, an effect target which is a target value for the decarbonization effects, and a cost target which is a target value for the policy costs.

[0008] The planning support method described in this disclosure involves a computer determining a policy implementation plan, including the decarbonization measures to be implemented and the timing of their implementation, using future trend information relating to at least one of the future trends of the decarbonization effect and the policy costs of the decarbonization measures, an effect target which is a target value for the decarbonization effect, and a cost target which is a target value for the policy costs.

[0009] The planning support program disclosed herein causes a computer to perform a decision process to determine a policy implementation plan, including the decarbonization measures to be implemented and the timing of their implementation, using future trend information relating to at least one of the future trends of the decarbonization effect and the cost of the decarbonization measures, an effect target which is a target value for the decarbonization effect, and a cost target which is a target value for the cost of the measures. [Effects of the Invention]

[0010] This disclosure can support the determination of policy implementation plans that take into account future changes in the effectiveness and costs of the policies. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0011] [Figure 1] This is a block diagram illustrating the main components of a planning support device. [Figure 2] This is a block diagram illustrating the functional configuration of a planning support device. [Figure 3] This is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of a policy implementation plan. [Figure 4] This is an explanatory diagram illustrating the process for deciding on a policy implementation plan. [Figure 5]This is an explanatory diagram illustrating the method for determining policy implementation plans. [Figure 6] This is a flowchart illustrating the operation of the planning support device. [Figure 7] This is a flowchart illustrating the operation of the planning support device. [Figure 8] This is a block diagram illustrating the hardware configuration of a computer that implements a planning support system. [Modes for carrying out the invention]

[0012] An increasing number of companies are setting decarbonization targets and engaging in decarbonization management through measures such as disclosing management strategies that address climate change (TCFD (Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures)) and setting targets for decarbonization (SBT (Science Based Targets)).

[0013] To achieve decarbonization targets, it is necessary to formulate cost-effective decarbonization implementation plans that take into account future developments in energy-related technologies (such as the efficiency of solar power generation) and fluctuations in energy prices.

[0014] A related common technique is the creation of a marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve. For example, see Reference 1 (Ministry of the Environment, "Consideration of Measures to Maximize Emission Reduction Potential (Summary Report)," [online], [Accessed September 12, 2024], Internet).<URL:https: / / www.env.go.jp / earth / er-potential / rep2505 / gaiyo-1.pdf> The document discloses a technology for evaluating the cost of each decarbonization measure (yen / tCO2) and its CO2 reduction effect (tCO2).

[0015] The MAC curve generally shows the results of prioritizing the investment effects of multiple decarbonization measures assuming they are implemented at the current time. Therefore, users such as operators cannot determine an implementation plan for measures (e.g., which measures should be implemented and when) that includes future plans, not just the current time, considering the future changes in the effects and costs of decarbonization measures based solely on the MAC curve.

[0016] In the technology according to the present disclosure, the planning support device derives a decarbonization measure implementation plan that balances an effect target, which is a target value regarding the decarbonization effect of decarbonization measures, and a cost target, which is a target value regarding the measure cost of decarbonization measures, taking into account the future trends of the decarbonization effects and measure costs of decarbonization measures. As a result, users such as operators can determine a decarbonization measure implementation plan that includes future plans, considering the future changes in the decarbonization effects and measure costs of decarbonization measures.

[0017] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present disclosure will be described with reference to the drawings. In each drawing, the same or corresponding elements are denoted by the same reference numerals, and redundant descriptions may be omitted as necessary for clarity of explanation. Unless otherwise specified, predetermined values such as predetermined values and threshold values are stored in advance in a storage device or the like accessible from the device that uses the value. Also, unless otherwise specified, the storage unit is composed of one or more arbitrary storage devices.

[0018] Embodiment 1. The first embodiment of the present disclosure will be described with reference to the drawings. This embodiment is a basic form for the embodiments described later.

[0019] FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating the main part of the plan support device. The plan support device 10 (for example, corresponding to the plan support device 100 described later) shown in FIG. 1 uses future transition information regarding at least either the decarbonization effect or the measure cost of the decarbonization measures, an effect target which is a target value regarding the decarbonization effect, and a cost target which is a target value regarding the measure cost, and includes a determination unit 11 (for example, realized by a plan determination unit 150 described later) that determines a measure implementation plan including the decarbonization measures to be implemented and the implementation timing of the decarbonization measures. With such a configuration, the plan support device 10 can support the determination of a measure implementation plan in consideration of future changes in the effects and costs of the measures. As a result, the user can determine a measure implementation plan including not only the current time but also future plans after considering future changes in the decarbonization effect and measure cost of the decarbonization measures.

[0020] Embodiment 2. The second embodiment of the present disclosure will be described with reference to the drawings. First, the functional configuration of the plan support device of this embodiment will be described. FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating the functional configuration of the plan support device. The plan support device 100 of this embodiment includes a prediction unit 110, a measure information management unit 120, an area information management unit 130, a target management unit 140, a plan determination unit 150, and an output unit 160.

[0021] The prediction unit 110 has a function of predicting the future transition of at least either the decarbonization effect or the measure cost for each of the decarbonization measures. The prediction unit 110 stores, for example, the prediction result in the measure information management unit 120 as future transition information.

[0022] The prediction unit 110 may predict future values from the past transition data of the decarbonization effect and the measure cost. In this case, the prediction unit 110 can use any time series prediction method such as an autoregressive model, a state space model, or a machine learning model. Further, the prediction unit 110 may acquire information regarding these future predictions from a future trend prediction report or the like implemented by a research company or the like.

[0023] The prediction unit 110 can predict future trends by considering, for example, the effective period of the decarbonization measures. The effective period may be, for example, the useful life of the equipment used to implement the decarbonization measures. For example, the prediction unit 110 can predict whether or not the decarbonization measures will be effective based on whether or not they are within the effective period. As an example, the prediction unit 110 can predict that if the measures are within the effective period, decarbonization effects and costs will be incurred, and if they are outside the effective period, no decarbonization effects or costs will be incurred. The method of considering the effective period is not limited to this. For example, the prediction unit 110 can apply a method that predicts that the effects and costs of the decarbonization measures will gradually decrease as the expiration date of the effective period approaches.

[0024] The prediction unit 110 may directly predict the decarbonization effect and policy costs of the target of prediction, or it may predict related indicators. Indicators related to the decarbonization effect include, for example, activity levels and emission factors. Indicators related to policy costs include, for example, energy costs and labor costs. There may be one or more related indicators. Furthermore, when relative decarbonization effects are used, the prediction unit 110 may predict only one of the states when the policy is implemented and when no policy is implemented, or it may predict both.

[0025] The Policy Information Management Unit 120 has the function of managing policy information, which includes information on future trends related to decarbonization measures, the amount of resources related to said decarbonization measures, and the areas in which said decarbonization measures can be implemented.

[0026] The policy information management unit 120 manages future trend information for each decarbonization policy, relating to the future trends of at least one of the decarbonization effect and the policy cost. The future trend information may include only information on the future trends of the decarbonization effect and the future trends of the policy cost, or it may include information on both. The policy information management unit 120 is implemented, for example, by a storage device that stores the future trend information.

[0027] Decarbonization measures are policies aimed at eliminating carbon dioxide. Specific examples of decarbonization measures include the introduction of solar power generation equipment, the conclusion of power purchase agreements, the construction of virtual power plants, the introduction of energy-saving equipment, the purchase of carbon credits, the electrification of facilities, and the procurement of CO2-free electricity.

[0028] The decarbonization effect of decarbonization measures refers to the effects that result from implementing decarbonization measures. Specific examples of decarbonization effects include CO2 reduction and energy consumption reduction.

[0029] Future trend information regarding the decarbonization effects of decarbonization measures includes, for example, information showing the future trends in CO2 reductions and energy consumption reductions resulting from those decarbonization measures. Specifically, if the decarbonization measure is a solar power generation facility, the year-on-year change in CO2 reductions by that solar power generation facility is included in the future trend information. If the decarbonization effect is an energy consumption reduction, the CO2 reduction amount for that energy consumption reduction may be calculated by multiplying the energy consumption reduction by a predetermined CO2 emission factor.

[0030] The policy costs of decarbonization measures refer to the various costs incurred when introducing and maintaining decarbonization measures. Specific examples of policy costs include initial investment costs and running costs. For example, if a company purchases equipment to implement decarbonization measures, such as installing solar panels, the maintenance and management costs of the equipment will be reflected in the policy costs. Furthermore, if the decarbonization measures are advanced by procuring resources from external sources, that is, by utilizing renewable energy or carbon credits provided by other companies, the energy unit price, fuel unit price, carbon credit fees, etc., will be reflected in the policy costs.

[0031] Future trend information regarding the cost of decarbonization measures includes, for example, information showing the future trend of investment costs for those decarbonization measures. Specifically, if the decarbonization measure is a solar power generation facility, the future trend information would include changes over time in investment costs such as the initial investment cost and running costs for that solar power generation facility.

[0032] The decarbonization effect and cost of a decarbonization measure may be the absolute effect and cost of implementing the measure, or the relative effect and cost of implementing the measure compared to not implementing it. Absolute effects and costs are, for example, the absolute values ​​of the effects and costs obtained when installing solar power generation. Relative effects and costs are, for example, the difference between the effects and costs obtained when installing solar power generation and the effects and costs related to the electricity that becomes unnecessary as a result.

[0033] Decarbonization measures may have a defined effective period, during which decarbonization effects and costs are incurred only. In this case, the decarbonization effects and costs of the decarbonization measures cease to exist after the effective period of the measures has expired.

[0034] As will be described later, in this embodiment, the planning unit 150 selects decarbonization measures to be implemented for each area. Specific examples of areas include, in the case of a company, its headquarters and branch offices. There may be one area or multiple areas. As mentioned above, the policy information management unit 120 can manage information indicating the areas where the measures can be implemented as policy information. However, if it is obvious which area the measures will be implemented in, such as when there is only one area, the information indicating the areas where the measures can be implemented does not need to be included in the policy information.

[0035] The "resource quantity related to decarbonization measures" included in the policy information managed by the Policy Information Management Department 120 refers to information regarding the impact of decarbonization measures on the resource quantity of the area where they are implemented (hereinafter also referred to as policy specification information).

[0036] The policy specification information managed by the policy information management unit 120 includes, for example, information indicating the amount of resources such as land and space used by the decarbonization policy in the area where the policy is implemented. The policy specification information also includes, for example, information indicating the amount of resources such as electricity used or reduced by the decarbonization policy in the area where the policy is implemented.

[0037] If a decarbonization measure increases electricity consumption in the area where it is implemented (for example, in the case of electrification of facilities), the policy specification information for that decarbonization measure will include information indicating the amount of electricity used. On the other hand, if a decarbonization measure decreases electricity consumption in the area where it is implemented (for example, in the case of installing solar power generation facilities), the policy specification information for that decarbonization measure will include information indicating the amount of electricity to be reduced.

[0038] The area information management unit 130 has the function of managing area information regarding the amount of resources that an area can supply. The area information management unit 130 is implemented, for example, by a storage device that stores area information.

[0039] The area information managed by the area information management unit 130 includes, for example, information indicating the amount of resources such as land and space that can be supplied within the area. The area information also includes, for example, information indicating the amount of resources related to electricity that can be supplied within the area. Furthermore, the area information may also include the amount of electricity that can be reduced within the area or the amount of electricity that can be substituted within the area. These area-specific resource constraints are hereinafter referred to as area constraints.

[0040] The target management unit 140 manages effect targets, which are target values ​​related to the decarbonization effect, and cost targets, which are target values ​​related to the cost of the measures. The target management unit 140 is implemented, for example, by a memory device that stores information indicating the effect targets and information indicating the cost targets.

[0041] Effectiveness targets are, for example, information indicating the annual reduction in CO2 emissions. Cost targets are, for example, information indicating the annual budget cap for decarbonization measures. Cost targets and effectiveness targets are not limited to single-year targets. For example, cost targets and effectiveness targets may be cumulative values ​​from a base year.

[0042] The policy implementation plan shown in this embodiment balances the effectiveness target, which is a target value related to the decarbonization effect, with the cost target, which is a target value related to the policy costs of the decarbonization measures. Furthermore, the policy implementation plan shown in this embodiment is in a format that indicates in which areas, when, and what kind of measures will be implemented. However, the policy implementation plan shown in this embodiment does not limit the format of the policy implementation plan that the planning support device 100 assists in deciding.

[0043] The planning unit 150 has the function of determining a policy implementation plan that includes the decarbonization measures to be implemented and the timing of their implementation. When determining the policy implementation plan, the planning unit 150 selects the decarbonization measures to be implemented for each area. Furthermore, the planning unit 150 selects the decarbonization measures to be implemented so that the total amount of resources related to the decarbonization measures to be implemented in a given area satisfies the area constraints set for that area.

[0044] The output unit 160 has a function to output information indicating the policy implementation plan determined by the plan decision unit 150. For example, the output unit 160 outputs and stores the information indicating the policy implementation plan determined by the plan decision unit 150 to the storage unit (not shown) of the plan support device 100 or an external device. The output unit 160 also outputs and displays the information indicating the policy implementation plan determined by the plan decision unit 150 to a display device (not shown), such as a display device.

[0045] The output unit 160 may output information indicating the policy implementation plan decided by the plan decision unit 150, including information showing the decarbonization effect and the trend of policy costs if the policy is implemented in accordance with the policy implementation plan. In addition, the output unit 160 may output information indicating which information was used to make the decision, along with future trend information, area information, and policy specification information, as information indicating the policy implementation plan decided by the plan decision unit 150.

[0046] Next, the operation overview of the planning decision unit 150 will be explained. Figure 3 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of a policy implementation plan determined by the planning decision unit 150. Figure 3 shows a case where there are three areas, base α, base β, and base γ, where decarbonization measures can be introduced. Note that the explanatory diagram shown in Figure 3 does not limit the format of the policy implementation plan that the planning support device 100 assists in determining.

[0047] Each area is defined by area constraints, which are constraints on the selection of decarbonization measures, based on area information. Area constraints are set, for example, based on the area of ​​available space that can be supplied for decarbonization measures such as solar power generation within the area. Area constraints are also set, for example, based on the amount of electricity that can be supplied within the area. Furthermore, area constraints are set, for example, based on the upper limit of the amount of electricity that can be reduced through decarbonization measures such as energy conservation.

[0048] For example, a decarbonization measure that requires an installation area exceeding the area of ​​available space that can be supplied within a given area does not satisfy the area constraints of that area. Similarly, a decarbonization measure that requires more electricity than can be supplied within a given area does not satisfy the area constraints of that area. Furthermore, a decarbonization measure that aims to reduce electricity consumption beyond the amount that can be reduced within a given area does not satisfy the area constraints of that area.

[0049] The planning unit 150 receives area information regarding the amount of resources that an area can supply and policy specification information regarding the impact that decarbonization measures will have on the resource amounts of the area where they will be implemented. Based on the area information and policy specification information, the planning unit 150 selects decarbonization measures to be implemented such that the total amount of resources related to the decarbonization measures to be implemented in a given area satisfies the area constraints set for that area. The planning unit 150 may select multiple decarbonization measures to be implemented in a given area if the area constraints are met.

[0050] Figure 3 shows an example of a decarbonization measure selected that satisfies the area constraints. In the example shown in Figure 3, the selected decarbonization measure is represented by a shaded area.

[0051] Specifically, at base α, measures α1 have been selected to be implemented in 0 years (i.e., this year), measures α1 in 1 year, and measures α1 and α2 in 2 years. At base β, measures β1 have been selected to be implemented in 1 year, and measures β1 and β3 in 2 years. At base γ, measures γ3 have been selected to be implemented in 0 years (i.e., this year), measures γ2 and γ3 in 1 year, and measures γ1, γ2 and γ3 in 2 years.

[0052] In other words, Figure 3 shows a policy implementation plan in which policy α1 is implemented at base α and policy γ3 at base γ in year 0 (i.e., this year), policy α1 is implemented at base α, policy β1 at base β, and policies γ2 and γ3 at base γ in year 1, and policies α1 and α2 are implemented at base α, policies β1 and β3 at base β, and policies γ1, γ2 and γ3 at base γ in year 2. Note that the example shown in Figure 3 is not limited to the same policy being implemented multiple times in the same year. For example, suppose policy α1 is a policy to generate 10 kWh of solar power, and it is possible to introduce a policy to generate 100 kWh in a given year. In this case, the plan determination unit 150 can determine a policy implementation plan to implement policy α1 10 times in that year.

[0053] As shown in Figure 3, the planning unit 150 derives the optimal combination of which areas, when, and what measures to implement. The planning unit 150 can use various optimization methods, such as greedy algorithms, local search methods, simulated annealing, and genetic algorithms. However, the optimization methods applicable to the planning unit 150 are not limited to these methods.

[0054] Figure 4 is an explanatory diagram illustrating the flow of determining a policy implementation plan. The plan determination unit 150 can determine a policy implementation plan as shown in Figure 4. That is, the plan determination unit 150 performs a process to generate candidate plans (corresponding to policy implementation plan #0 (initial value), policy implementation plan #1, and policy implementation plan #2 in the example shown in Figure 4), which are candidates for the policy implementation plan. Next, the plan determination unit 150 evaluates the expected future trends of decarbonization effects and policy costs over time, which are expected when decarbonization measures are implemented in accordance with the candidate plans. For example, it uses the "future trend information regarding decarbonization measures" held by the policy information management unit 120 to evaluate the future trends of decarbonization effects and policy costs for each measure. The plan determination unit 150 may aggregate the future trends of decarbonization effects and policy costs for each measure on an area basis. Alternatively, the plan determination unit 150 may aggregate the future trends of decarbonization effects and policy costs aggregated on an area basis for all areas to obtain the overall future trends of decarbonization effects and policy costs.

[0055] The planning decision unit 150 evaluates a predetermined objective function based on the future trends of decarbonization effects and policy costs for the above-mentioned policy units, area units, or the entire area. The planning decision unit 150 ultimately determines the policy implementation plan by repeatedly evaluating the process of generating these policy implementation plans and evaluating the objective function using an arbitrary optimization method. The planning decision unit 150 can set any objective function, such as maximizing the decarbonization effect for the entire area, minimizing policy costs for the entire area, or maximizing the decarbonization effect relative to policy costs for the entire area. The planning decision unit 150 may also use constraints along with the objective function. The planning decision unit 150 can use constraints such as satisfying area constraints, satisfying effect targets, satisfying cost targets, or any combination thereof. By combining the objective function and constraints, the planning decision unit 150 can perform optimizations such as minimizing policy costs while satisfying effect targets and area constraints, or maximizing effect targets while satisfying cost targets and area constraints.

[0056] Furthermore, cost and effectiveness targets do not need to be set every year; they may be set only in milestone years. In this case, meeting the targets for the milestone years will suffice to meet the aforementioned cost and effectiveness targets.

[0057] Figure 5 shows an example of calculating the future trends of decarbonization effects and policy costs for all areas combined, based on the future trends of decarbonization effects and policy costs for each policy.

[0058] Figure 5 shows an example where hubs α, β, and γ exist as areas where decarbonization measures can be implemented.

[0059] Figure 5 shows a graph illustrating the future trend of policy costs, with the vertical axis representing policy costs and the horizontal axis representing elapsed time. In Figure 5, this graph is shown for each location and for each year.

[0060] Specifically, the graph in Figure 5(a) shows the future trend of policy costs if policy α1 is introduced at base α in 2025. The graph in Figure 5(b) shows the future trend of policy costs if policy α3 is introduced at base α in 2026. The graph in Figure 5(c) shows the future trend of policy costs if policies β2 and β3 are introduced at base β in 2025. The graph in Figure 5(d) shows the future trend of policy costs if policy γ4 is introduced at base γ in 2025.

[0061] The policy costs shown in the graph in Figure 5 are shown relatively in comparison to the case where decarbonization measures were not implemented. The policy costs in the graph in Figure 5 are represented, for example, as the sum of initial investment costs and running costs. Note that, not limited to the example in Figure 5, policy costs may also be the absolute costs incurred when decarbonization measures are implemented.

[0062] Let's assume that policy α1 is a decarbonization measure that involves installing solar panels to generate electricity. In this case, the cost of policy α1 can be calculated, for example, using the following formula. Policy cost = Initial investment cost [equipment investment cost for solar panels (e.g., material purchase cost, installation cost, etc.)] + Running cost [annual maintenance and management cost of solar panels - cost of procuring electricity from discarded fossil fuels]

[0063] Furthermore, when considering the depreciation of the solar panels, which are assets, the cost of measure α1 can be calculated, for example, using the following formula. Policy cost = Initial investment cost [equipment investment cost for solar panels (e.g., material purchase and installation costs) / depreciation period of solar panels] + Running cost [annual maintenance and management costs for solar power - cost of procuring electricity from discarded fossil fuels]

[0064] Depending on the type of decarbonization measure, some may not incur initial investment costs such as capital expenditures, and others may not incur costs for procuring electricity from fossil fuels that are no longer needed. For example, a decarbonization measure that involves entering into a contract to procure electricity from renewable energy sources from power companies does not incur capital expenditures. Similarly, a decarbonization measure that involves purchasing carbon credits does not incur costs for procuring electricity from fossil fuels that are no longer needed.

[0065] The graph in Figure 5(a) shows that policy costs increase in the first year. This is because initial investment costs are incurred when introducing policy α1.

[0066] Furthermore, the graph in Figure 5(a) shows that policy costs are reduced in the years following the first year. This is because the initial investment costs of policy α1 are not incurred after the first year, and the cost of procuring electricity from fossil fuels that become unnecessary due to the implementation of policy α1 exceeds the annual maintenance and management costs of the solar panels.

[0067] The methods for determining the policy implementation plan are shown with reference to Figures 4 and 5, but these are not limited to the method used by the plan determination unit 150 to determine the policy implementation plan.

[0068] The planning unit 150 may determine the policy implementation plan using area information and policy specification information that include information on future trends. In other words, the area information and policy specification information may include the amount of resources that the area can supply and future changes in the impact that decarbonization measures will have on the amount of resources in the area where they will be implemented.

[0069] For example, the policy specification information for a decarbonization measure involving the installation of solar panels for power generation may include information on future trends, reflecting the possibility that the installation area required to obtain the same amount of power generation will decrease in the future due to technological advancements, etc. Similarly, the area information may include information on future trends, reflecting the possibility that the area of ​​the business site (area) will decrease or increase in the future due to land consolidation, etc. The planning decision unit 150 can appropriately select the decarbonization measures to be implemented and their implementation timing by selecting decarbonization measures based on such policy specification information and area information that include information on future trends.

[0070] Next, the operation of the planning support device 100 in this embodiment will be described. Figures 6 and 7 are flowcharts illustrating the operation of the planning support device.

[0071] Figure 6 is a flowchart illustrating the process of determining the policy implementation plan. The prediction unit 110 predicts the future trend of at least one of the decarbonization effect and policy costs for each decarbonization measure (step S110).

[0072] Next, the planning unit 150 uses the future trend information, which is the prediction result from the forecasting unit 110, along with the effectiveness target and cost target, to determine a policy implementation plan that includes the decarbonization measures to be implemented and the timing of their implementation (step S120).

[0073] Next, the output unit 160 outputs information indicating the policy implementation plan decided by the plan decision unit 150 (step S130).

[0074] Figure 7 is a flowchart illustrating the detailed operation of step S120 shown in Figure 6. In determining the policy implementation plan in step S120, the plan determination unit 150 selects decarbonization measures to be implemented for each area and generates candidate plans, which are candidates for the policy implementation plan (step S121). In step S121, the plan determination unit 150 selects decarbonization measures to be implemented based on area information and policy specification information, for example, so that the decarbonization measures implemented in one area satisfy the area constraints set for that area.

[0075] Next, the plan determination unit 150 evaluates whether the expected decarbonization effect and cost of implementing decarbonization measures in accordance with the generated candidate plan satisfy the effect target and cost target, respectively (step S122). In steps S121 and S122, the plan determination unit 150 may use, for example, minimizing the "sum of measures costs for all areas and all periods" while satisfying the annual effect target and cost target as the optimization objective function.

[0076] Next, the plan determination unit 150 determines whether or not the predetermined termination conditions are met (step S123). If the predetermined termination conditions are not met (No in step S123), the plan determination unit 150 repeatedly executes the processes in steps S121 and S122. If the predetermined termination conditions are met (Yes in step S123), the plan determination unit 150 determines the generated candidate plan as the final policy implementation plan (step S124).

[0077] A predetermined termination condition is, for example, that the processes in steps S121 and S122 are executed a predetermined number of times. Alternatively, the predetermined termination condition may be that the evaluation result in step S122 exceeds a predetermined threshold, or that no change is observed in the evaluation result in step S122.

[0078] The operational examples shown in Figures 6 and 7 do not limit the operation of the planning support device 100 of this disclosure. For example, instead of the process of predicting future trends in step S110, a process of inputting predicted future trend information may be performed.

[0079] Next, the effects of this embodiment will be described. In this embodiment, the planning unit 150 uses future trend information relating to at least one of the future trends of the decarbonization effect and the cost of the decarbonization measures, an effect target which is a target value for the decarbonization effect, and a cost target which is a target value for the cost of the measures, to determine a policy implementation plan that includes the decarbonization measures to be implemented and the timing of their implementation. With this configuration, the planning support device 100 can support the determination of a policy implementation plan that takes into account future changes in the effects and costs of the measures. As a result, the user can determine a policy implementation plan that includes not only current but also future plans, taking into account future changes in the decarbonization effect and cost of the decarbonization measures.

[0080] In this embodiment, the planning unit 150 selects decarbonization measures to be implemented for each area. The planning unit 150 can also select decarbonization measures to be implemented such that the total amount of resources related to the decarbonization measures to be implemented in a given area satisfies the area constraints set for that area. With this configuration, the planning support device 100 can support the determination of a policy implementation plan that satisfies the area constraints.

[0081] The plan determination unit 150 can determine the policy implementation plan by repeatedly generating candidate plans and evaluating whether the decarbonization effect and policy costs, respectively, would satisfy the effect target and cost target if decarbonization measures were implemented in accordance with the candidate plans. With this configuration, the plan support device 100 can assist in determining the most optimal policy implementation plan.

[0082] Next, the configuration of the computer related to this disclosure will be described. Figure 8 is a block diagram illustrating the hardware configuration of the computer 1000 that implements the planning support device 10 and the planning support device 100. The computer 1000 is any computer. For example, the computer 1000 is a stationary computer such as a personal computer or a server machine. Alternatively, the computer 1000 is a portable computer such as a smartphone or a tablet terminal. The computer 1000 may be a dedicated computer designed to implement the planning support device 10 and the planning support device 100, or it may be a general-purpose computer.

[0083] Computer 1000 has a processor 1001, a storage device 1002, memory 1003, a bus 1004, an input / output interface 1005, and a network interface 1006.

[0084] Processor 1001 is a variety of processing units, including CPUs (Central Processing Units), GPUs (Graphics Processing Units), FPGAs (Field-Programmable Gate Arrays), and DSPs (Digital Signal Processors).

[0085] The storage device 1002 is, for example, a non-transitory computer-readable medium. Non-transitory computer-readable media include various types of tangible storage media. Specific examples of non-transitory computer-readable media include semiconductor memory (e.g., mask ROM, PROM (Programmable ROM), EPROM (Erasable PROM), flash ROM).

[0086] Memory 1003 is a main memory system implemented using RAM (Random Access Memory) or similar technologies. Memory 1003 temporarily stores data when the processor 1001 executes processing.

[0087] Bus 1004 is a data transmission path for the processor 1001, memory 1003, storage device 1002, input / output interface 1005, and network interface 1006 to send and receive data to and from each other. However, the method of connecting the processor 1001 and the others to each other is not limited to bus connection.

[0088] The input / output interface 1005 is an interface for connecting the computer 1000 with input / output devices. For example, input devices such as keyboards and output devices such as display devices are connected to the input / output interface 1005.

[0089] The network interface 1006 is an interface for connecting computer 1000 to a network. This network may be a LAN (Local Area Network) or a WAN (Wide Area Network).

[0090] The memory device 1002 stores programs that implement each functional component of the planning support device 10 and the planning support device 100. The processor 1001 reads these programs into the memory 1003 and executes them to implement each functional component of the planning support device 10 and the planning support device 100.

[0091] The planning support device 10 and the planning support device 100 may be implemented by one computer 1000 or by multiple computers 1000. In the latter case, the configuration of each computer 1000 does not need to be the same and can be different.

[0092] Each functional component of the planning support device 10 and the planning support device 100 may be implemented by a combination of the hardware and software described above, or by hardware (for example, hardwired electronic circuits).

[0093] Although the present disclosure has been described above with reference to embodiments, the present disclosure is not limited to the embodiments described above. Various modifications to the structure and details of the present disclosure are possible, as can be understood by those skilled in the art within the scope of the present disclosure. Each embodiment can be combined with other embodiments as appropriate.

[0094] Each drawing is merely illustrative to illustrate one or more embodiments. Each drawing may be associated with one or more other embodiments rather than with only one specific embodiment. As those skilled in the art will understand, various features or steps described with reference to any one drawing can be combined with features or steps shown in one or more other drawings, for example, to create embodiments not explicitly shown or described. Not all features or steps shown in any one drawing to illustrate an exemplary embodiment are necessarily required, and some features or steps may be omitted. The order of steps shown in any of the drawings may be changed as appropriate.

[0095] Some or all of the above embodiments may also be described as follows, but are not limited to the following:

[0096] (Note 1) The system includes a decision-making unit that determines a policy implementation plan, including the decarbonization measures to be implemented and the timing of their implementation, using future trend information regarding the future trends of at least one of the decarbonization effects and policy costs of the decarbonization measures, an effect target which is a target value for the decarbonization effect, and a cost target which is a target value for the policy costs. A planning support device characterized by the following features.

[0097] (Note 2) The aforementioned decision unit selects the decarbonization measures to be implemented for each area. The planning support device described in Appendix 1.

[0098] (Note 3) The decision-making unit selects decarbonization measures to be implemented such that the total amount of resources related to the decarbonization measures implemented in a given area satisfies the area constraints set for that area. A planning support device as described in Appendix 1 or Appendix 2.

[0099] (Note 4) The system includes a policy information management unit that manages policy information, which includes information on future trends related to decarbonization measures, the amount of resources related to said decarbonization measures, and the areas where said decarbonization measures can be implemented, The resource volume related to the aforementioned decarbonization measures is information regarding the impact that the decarbonization measures have on the resource volume of the area where they are implemented. The planning support device described in Appendix 3.

[0100] (Note 5) The decision unit determines the policy implementation plan by repeatedly generating candidate plans, which are candidates for the policy implementation plan, and evaluating whether the expected decarbonization effects and policy costs when implementing decarbonization measures in accordance with the candidate plans satisfy the effect targets and cost targets, respectively. A planning support device as described in any of the appendices 1 to 4.

[0101] (Note 6) Each decarbonization measure is equipped with a prediction unit that predicts the aforementioned future trend information. A planning support device as described in any of the appendices 1 through 5.

[0102] (Note 7) The decarbonization effect and cost of decarbonization measures are either the absolute effect and cost of implementing the measures, or the relative effect and cost of implementing the measures compared to not implementing them. A planning support device as described in any of the appendices 1 through 6.

[0103] (Note 8) The system includes an output unit that outputs information indicating the policy implementation plan determined by the decision unit. A planning support device as described in any of the appendices 1 through 7.

[0104] (Note 9) Computers Using future trend information regarding at least one of the future trends of the decarbonization effect and the cost of the decarbonization measures, along with an effect target (a target value for the decarbonization effect) and a cost target (a target value for the cost of the measures), a policy implementation plan is determined that includes the decarbonization measures to be implemented and the timing of their implementation. A planning support method characterized by the following features.

[0105] (Note 10) On the computer, A decision process to determine a policy implementation plan, including the decarbonization measures to be implemented and the timing of their implementation, using future trend information regarding at least one of the future trends of the decarbonization effect and the policy costs of the decarbonization measures, an effect target value which is the target value for the decarbonization effect, and a cost target value which is the target value for the policy costs. A program to support planning and implementation.

[0106] Some or all of the elements (e.g., configuration and function) described in Appendices 2 to 8 that are dependent on Appendice 1 may also be dependent on Appendices 9 and 10 in the same way as those described in Appendices 2 to 8. Some or all of the elements described in any appendice may be applicable to various hardware, software, recording means, systems, and methods for recording software. [Explanation of Symbols]

[0107] 10,100 Planning support device 11. Decision Section 110 Prediction Unit 120 Policy Information Management Department 130 Area Information Management Department 140 Target Management Department 150 Planning Department 160 Output section 1000 computers 1001 Processor 1002 Storage device 1003 memory 1004 Bus 1005 Input / Output Interface 1006 Network Interface

Claims

1. The system includes a decision-making unit that determines a policy implementation plan, including the decarbonization measures to be implemented and the timing of their implementation, using future trend information regarding the future trends of at least one of the decarbonization effects and policy costs of decarbonization measures, an effect target which is a target value for the decarbonization effect, and a cost target which is a target value for the policy costs. A planning support device characterized by the following features.

2. The aforementioned decision unit selects the decarbonization measures to be implemented for each area. The planning support device according to claim 1.

3. The decision-making unit selects decarbonization measures to be implemented such that the total amount of resources related to the decarbonization measures implemented in a given area satisfies the area constraints set for that area. A planning support device according to claim 1 or claim 2.

4. The system includes a policy information management unit that manages policy information, which includes information on future trends related to decarbonization measures, the amount of resources related to said decarbonization measures, and the areas where said decarbonization measures can be implemented, The resource volume related to the aforementioned decarbonization measures is information regarding the impact that the decarbonization measures have on the resource volume of the area where they are implemented. The planning support device according to claim 3.

5. The decision unit determines the policy implementation plan by repeatedly generating candidate plans, which are candidates for the policy implementation plan, and evaluating whether the expected decarbonization effects and policy costs when implementing decarbonization measures in accordance with the candidate plans satisfy the effect targets and cost targets, respectively. A planning support device according to claim 1 or claim 2.

6. Each decarbonization measure is equipped with a prediction unit that predicts the aforementioned future trend information. A planning support device according to claim 1 or claim 2.

7. The decarbonization effect and cost of decarbonization measures are either the absolute effect and cost of implementing the measures, or the relative effect and cost of implementing the measures compared to not implementing them. A planning support device according to claim 1 or claim 2.

8. The system includes an output unit that outputs information indicating the policy implementation plan determined by the decision unit. A planning support device according to claim 1 or claim 2.

9. Computers Using future trend information regarding at least one of the future trends of the decarbonization effect and the cost of the decarbonization measures, along with an effect target (a target value for the decarbonization effect) and a cost target (a target value for the cost of the measures), a policy implementation plan is determined that includes the decarbonization measures to be implemented and the timing of their implementation. A planning support method characterized by the following features.

10. On the computer, A decision process to determine a policy implementation plan, including the decarbonization measures to be implemented and the timing of their implementation, using future trend information regarding at least one of the future trends of the decarbonization effect and the policy costs of the decarbonization measures, an effect target value which is the target value for the decarbonization effect, and a cost target value which is the target value for the policy costs. A program to support planning and implementation.

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