Policy management device, policy management method, and policy management program

Abstract

This invention provides a policy management device, a policy management method, and a policy management program that can appropriately determine when a policy implementation plan should be reviewed. [Solution] The system includes a derivation unit that derives a decarbonization policy implementation plan based on predetermined criteria using predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators at a second time point predicted at a first time point; an evaluation unit that evaluates an acceptable fluctuation range, which is the range of predicted values ​​from which the same decarbonization policy implementation plan is derived based on the same predetermined criteria; and a determination unit that determines whether the latest values ​​of energy-related indicators at the second time point obtained at a third time point after the first time point fall within the acceptable fluctuation range.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a policy management device, a policy management method, and a policy management program.

Background Art

[0002] As a technology related to policy management, for example, Patent Document 1 discloses a technology for supporting a company or its base in achieving the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

[0003] The service provider server described in Patent Document 1 calculates the degree of GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions of users (such as companies) who need to make reduction efforts by a predetermined deadline. Based on the calculation result, the service provider server identifies elements that are expected to have an impact on reducing emissions, and presents recommendation information including solutions related to the elements to the users.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0004] [[ID=Z6]]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0005] The service provider server described in Patent Document 1 estimates the scale of reduction efforts based on the current achievement level of the GHG emission reduction target and the expected future achievement based on the current year-on-year reduction level. An implementation plan for the policy will be formulated based on the result of this estimate.

[0006] However, the future forecasts that form the basis of these calculations may not match actual values ​​and may be inaccurate. Furthermore, even if the future forecast is wrong, there may or may not be a need to revise the policy implementation plan. The technology described in Patent Document 1 cannot distinguish whether or not such a revision is necessary, and therefore it is impossible to determine when the policy implementation plan should be revised.

[0007] This disclosure has been made in view of these issues. One of the objectives of this disclosure is to provide a policy management device, a policy management method, and a policy management program that can suitably determine when a policy implementation plan should be reviewed. [Means for solving the problem]

[0008] The policy management device disclosed herein includes: a derivation unit that derives a decarbonization policy implementation plan based on predetermined criteria using predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators at a second time point predicted at a first time point; an evaluation unit that evaluates an acceptable fluctuation range, which is the range of predicted values ​​from which the same decarbonization policy implementation plan is derived based on the same predetermined criteria; and a determination unit that determines whether the latest values ​​of energy-related indicators at the second time point obtained at a third time point after the first time point fall within the acceptable fluctuation range.

[0009] The policy management method disclosed herein involves a computer using predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators at a second time point, predicted at a first time point, to derive a decarbonization policy implementation plan based on predetermined criteria, evaluating the acceptable range of variation which is the range of predicted values ​​from which the same decarbonization policy implementation plan can be derived based on the same predetermined criteria, and determining at a third time point, after the first time point, whether the latest values ​​of the energy-related indicators at the second time point fall within the acceptable range of variation.

[0010] The policy management program disclosed herein causes a computer to perform the following processes: a derivation process that derives a decarbonization policy implementation plan based on predetermined criteria using predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators at a second time point predicted at a first time point; an evaluation process that evaluates the acceptable range of variation, which is the range of predicted values ​​from which the same decarbonization policy implementation plan is derived based on the same predetermined criteria; and a determination process that determines whether the latest values ​​of energy-related indicators at a second time point obtained at a third time point after the first time point fall within the acceptable range of variation. [Effects of the Invention]

[0011] According to this disclosure, it is possible to appropriately determine when the policy implementation plan should be reviewed. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0012] [Figure 1] This is a block diagram illustrating the functional configuration of a policy management system. [Figure 2] This is an explanatory diagram illustrating predicted values ​​and acceptable fluctuation ranges for energy-related indicators. [Figure 3] This is a flowchart illustrating the operation of the policy management system. [Figure 4] This is a flowchart illustrating the operation of the policy management system. [Figure 5] This is a flowchart illustrating the operation of the policy management system. [Figure 6] This is a block diagram illustrating the hardware configuration of a computer that implements a policy management system. [Figure 7] This is a block diagram illustrating the main components of a policy management system. [Modes for carrying out the invention]

[0013] An increasing number of companies are setting decarbonization targets and engaging in decarbonization management through measures such as disclosing management strategies that address climate change (TCFD (Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures)) and setting targets for decarbonization (SBT (Science Based Targets)).

[0014] To achieve decarbonization targets, it is necessary to formulate cost-effective decarbonization implementation plans that take into account future developments in energy-related technologies (such as the efficiency of solar power generation) and fluctuations in energy prices.

[0015] A related general technology is one that predicts the future trends of energy-related indicators that influence policy decisions. For example, see Reference 1 ("Time Series Forecasting Based on Historical Data to Predict the Future", [online], [Retrieved September 3, 2024], Internet).<URL:https: / / coffee-tech-blog.com / time_series_prediction / #toc1> The document discloses time series forecasting techniques that analyze past data and predict future values ​​and events based on patterns and trends.

[0016] One approach is to predict future trends in energy-related indicators and formulate decarbonization action plans based on these predictions. However, predicted future trends in energy-related indicators may not match actual values ​​and may be inaccurate. Furthermore, even if the prediction is wrong, there may or may not be a need to revise the formulated decarbonization action plan. Conventional technology cannot distinguish whether or not a revision is necessary. Therefore, it is difficult to determine when a decarbonization action plan formulated based on predictions of future trends in energy-related indicators should be revised.

[0017] In the technology related to the present disclosure, for the predicted values of energy-related indicators, a range (allowable variation range) in which even if the prediction deviates, it does not affect the decarbonization measure implementation plan is obtained. Also, in the technology related to the present disclosure, based on whether the latest value of the energy-related indicator falls within the allowable variation range, a rejudgment of the decarbonization measure implementation plan is made. As a result, the user can suitably determine when to review the decarbonization measure implementation plan.

[0018] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present disclosure will be described with reference to the drawings. In each drawing, the same or corresponding elements are denoted by the same reference numerals, and redundant descriptions are omitted as necessary for clarity of explanation. Unless otherwise specified, predetermined values such as predetermined values and threshold values are stored in advance in a storage device or the like accessible from the device using the values. Also, unless otherwise specified, the storage unit is composed of one or more arbitrary numbers of storage devices.

[0019] Embodiment 1. The functional configuration of the measure management device according to the first embodiment will be described. FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating the functional configuration of the measure management device. The measure management device 100 according to the present embodiment includes a derivation unit 110, an evaluation unit 120, a determination unit 130, a notification unit 140, and an output unit 150.

[0020] The derivation unit 110 has a function of deriving a decarbonization measure implementation plan based on a predetermined criterion using the predicted value of the energy-related indicator. For example, the derivation unit 110 derives a decarbonization measure implementation plan based on a predetermined criterion using the predicted value of the energy-related indicator at a second time point predicted at a first time point. The second time point is an arbitrary time point after the first time point. The second time point may be a plurality of time points after the first time point.

[0021] At a later point in time than the first point in time (for example, the third point in time illustrated in Figure 2(b)), the latest values ​​of energy-related indicators at the second point in time (for example, new predicted or measured values) may be obtained. The derivation unit 110, for example, if the latest value does not fall within the allowable fluctuation range, uses that latest value to re-derive the decarbonization policy implementation plan based on predetermined criteria. Also, the derivation unit 110, for example, if the latest value does not fall within the allowable fluctuation range and that point in time is before a predetermined reference point, uses that latest value to re-derive the decarbonization policy implementation plan based on predetermined criteria. As will be described later, the allowable fluctuation range is the range of predicted values ​​in which the decarbonization policy implementation plan is not affected even if the prediction of energy-related indicators is incorrect.

[0022] The decarbonization measures implementation plan in this embodiment is an implementation plan for measures aimed at achieving decarbonization targets. The decarbonization measures implementation plan may, for example, balance an effect target, which is a target value related to the decarbonization effect, and a cost target, which is a target value related to the cost of the decarbonization measures. The decarbonization measures implementation plan may, for example, indicate in which areas, when, and what kind of measures will be implemented. The derivation unit 110 derives data representing the decarbonization measures implementation plan.

[0023] Decarbonization measures are policies aimed at eliminating carbon dioxide. Specific examples of decarbonization measures include the introduction of solar power generation, the conclusion of power purchase agreements, the construction of virtual power plants, energy conservation, the purchase of carbon credits, electrification of facilities, and procurement of CO2-free electricity.

[0024] Decarbonization effects are the results that arise from implementing decarbonization measures. Specific examples of decarbonization effects include CO2 reduction and energy savings.

[0025] Policy costs are the various costs incurred when introducing and implementing a policy. Specific examples of policy costs include initial investment costs and running costs. For instance, if a company purchases equipment to implement decarbonization measures, such as installing solar panels, the maintenance and management costs of the equipment will be reflected in the policy costs. Furthermore, if the equipment is procured externally, that is, if decarbonization measures are advanced by utilizing renewable energy or carbon credits provided by other companies, the energy unit price, fuel unit price, and carbon credit fees will be reflected in the policy costs.

[0026] In this embodiment, the energy-related indicators are, for example, energy costs such as renewable energy, carbon credit charges, and renewable energy generation efficiency. The energy-related indicators may also be indicators that arbitrarily combine multiple energy-related indicators.

[0027] Energy-related indicators are one of the factors that influence policy costs. Therefore, future fluctuations in energy-related indicators will affect future policy costs. Consequently, future trends in energy-related indicators will also influence the formulation of decarbonization policy implementation plans.

[0028] The derivation unit 110 can apply various criteria as predetermined standards for deriving a decarbonization policy implementation plan. For example, consider a case where the decarbonization policy implementation plan is in a format that indicates which areas, when, and what kind of measures will be implemented. In this case, the derivation unit 110 derives the optimal combination of which areas, when, and what kind of measures will be implemented. The derivation unit 110 can use various optimization methods, such as greedy algorithms, local search methods, simulated annealing, and genetic algorithms. However, the optimization methods applicable to the derivation unit 110 are not limited to these methods.

[0029] The derivation unit 110 may use, for example, minimizing the "total cost of measures across all areas and over the entire period" while satisfying the annual effectiveness target (CO2 reduction target) and cost target as the optimization objective function. In this case, constraints may include, for example, the satisfaction of the company-wide annual effectiveness target (CO2 reduction target), the satisfaction of the company-wide annual cost target (cost limit), and the satisfaction of area constraints.

[0030] The evaluation unit 120 has a function to evaluate the allowable variation range, which is the range of predicted values ​​from which the same decarbonization policy implementation plan is derived by the derivation unit 110 based on the same predetermined criteria.

[0031] For example, the evaluation unit 120 receives a decarbonization policy implementation plan derived by the derivation unit 110 based on predetermined criteria using predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators. The evaluation unit 120 then identifies the range of predicted values ​​for which the same decarbonization policy implementation plan as the input is derived based on the same predetermined criteria. The evaluation unit 120 then evaluates the identified range of predicted values ​​as the acceptable range of variation.

[0032] In this embodiment, the permissible range of variation is the range of predicted values ​​within which the prediction of energy-related indicators does not affect the decarbonization policy implementation plan, even if the prediction is incorrect. The predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators may not match the latest values ​​obtained at a point after the initial prediction point (for example, the first point in time shown in Figure 2(a)) (for example, new predicted values ​​or measured values).

[0033] However, if the latest value falls within the acceptable range of variation, that latest value does not affect the decarbonization policy implementation plan. For example, if the derivation unit 110 uses this latest value to derive a decarbonization policy implementation plan based on the same predetermined criteria, the same decarbonization policy implementation plan as the one derived using the initial forecast value is derived. In other words, in this case, even if the latest value does not match the initial forecast value, the decarbonization policy implementation plan is still the optimal plan and does not require revision.

[0034] On the other hand, if the latest value falls outside the acceptable range of variation, that latest value will affect the decarbonization policy implementation plan. For example, if the derivation unit 110 uses this latest value to derive a decarbonization policy implementation plan based on the same predetermined criteria, a different decarbonization policy implementation plan will be derived than the one derived using the initial forecast value. In other words, in this case, the decarbonization policy implementation plan derived using the initial forecast value is not the optimal plan at the time the latest value is obtained and needs to be revised.

[0035] The determination unit 130 has a function to determine whether the latest value of the energy-related indicator falls within the permissible fluctuation range. For example, the determination unit 130 determines whether the latest value of the energy-related indicator at the second time point, obtained at a third time point after the first time point in which the energy-related indicator at the second time point was predicted, falls within the permissible fluctuation range.

[0036] For example, if the determination unit 130 determines that the latest value does not fall within the permissible fluctuation range, the derivation unit 110 uses that latest value to re-derive the decarbonization measure implementation plan based on predetermined criteria.

[0037] The accuracy of predictions for energy-related indicators is expected to decrease as the prediction timeframe becomes more distant. Therefore, the policy management device 100 may evaluate the point in time when the latest value does not fall within the acceptable fluctuation range and perform different processing depending on the evaluation result. For example, if the determination unit 130 determines that the latest value of the energy-related indicator at the second point in time does not fall within the acceptable fluctuation range, it further determines whether the second point in time is before or after a predetermined reference time. Then, if the latest value does not fall within the acceptable fluctuation range and the second point in time is before or after the predetermined reference time, the derivation unit 110 uses that latest value to re-derive the decarbonization policy implementation plan based on the predetermined criteria. On the other hand, if the second point in time is after the predetermined reference time, the derivation unit 110 does not re-derive the decarbonization policy implementation plan. With this configuration, it is possible to determine whether or not a revision of the decarbonization policy implementation plan is necessary, taking into account the prediction accuracy depending on the timeframe.

[0038] The notification unit 140 has a function to provide a predetermined notification in accordance with the assessment results of the risk that the values ​​of energy-related indicators will exceed the permissible fluctuation range.

[0039] For example, after a decarbonization policy implementation plan is derived using predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators at a first point in time, the notification unit 140 compares the latest values ​​of the energy-related indicators obtained at that point in time with the permissible fluctuation range at any given time. Then, based on the comparison results, the notification unit 140 evaluates the risk that the values ​​of the energy-related indicators will exceed the permissible fluctuation range. For example, the notification unit 140 evaluates the risk that the values ​​of the energy-related indicators will exceed the permissible fluctuation range based on the distance from the upper or lower limit of the permissible fluctuation range to the latest values ​​of the energy-related indicators. The notification unit 140 may, for example, evaluate the risk as high if this distance is less than a predetermined threshold, or it may evaluate the degree of risk according to this distance.

[0040] The notification unit 140 notifies the evaluation results each time a risk is evaluated. The notification unit 140 may also be configured to only notify when the risk of an energy-related indicator exceeding an acceptable fluctuation range exceeds a predetermined threshold.

[0041] The output unit 150 has a function to output information indicating the judgment result of the judgment unit 130. For example, the output unit 150 outputs and stores the information indicating the judgment result of the judgment unit 130 in the policy management device 100 or the storage unit (not shown) of an external device. The output unit 150 also outputs and displays this information on a display device (not shown), such as a display device.

[0042] The output unit 150 outputs information indicating the determination result by the determination unit 130, for example, information indicating whether or not a review of the decarbonization policy implementation plan is necessary. The output unit 150 may also output information indicating, for example, at what point in time the values ​​of energy-related indicators will no longer fall within the permissible fluctuation range, and information indicating whether that point in time is before or after a predetermined reference point.

[0043] The output unit 150 may output, for example, information showing the decarbonization measures implementation plan derived by the derivation unit 110, or information showing the permissible fluctuation range evaluated by the evaluation unit 120.

[0044] Next, an overview of the predicted values ​​and permissible fluctuation ranges for energy-related indicators will be described. Figure 2 is an explanatory diagram illustrating the predicted values ​​and permissible fluctuation ranges for energy-related indicators. Note that the examples of predicted values ​​and permissible fluctuation ranges for energy-related indicators shown in Figure 2 do not limit the predicted values ​​and permissible fluctuation ranges for energy-related indicators used in the policy management device 100.

[0045] Figures 2(a) and 2(b) show graphs with energy-related indicators (energy cost indicators in this example) on the vertical axis and elapsed time on the horizontal axis.

[0046] Figure 2(a) illustrates the predicted values ​​and acceptable fluctuation ranges for energy-related indicators at the first time point. In the graph in Figure 2(a), the predicted values ​​for energy-related indicators corresponding to each time point after the first time point are shown as curves.

[0047] In the graphs of Figures 2(a) and 2(b), the second time point is any time point after the first time point. The second time point may be multiple time points after the first time point.

[0048] Figures 2(a) and 2(b) show an example in which decarbonization policy implementation plan A was derived using predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators at the first point in time.

[0049] In Figures 2(a) and 2(b), the acceptable range of variation, which is the range of predicted values ​​from which the decarbonization policy implementation plan A is derived, is represented by a vertical stripe pattern. Furthermore, the acceptable range of variation at the second point in time exemplified in Figures 2(a) and 2(b) is represented by a thick line.

[0050] Figure 2(b) illustrates the predicted values ​​and acceptable fluctuation ranges shown in Figure 2(a), as well as the predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators newly predicted at a third time point after the first time point. Specifically, Figure 2(b) illustrates two cases as new predicted values ​​for energy-related indicators: the first case in which predicted value A (latest value A) is predicted, and the second case in which predicted value B (latest value B) is predicted.

[0051] The predicted values ​​obtained at the third time point shown in Figure 2(b) are, for example, predicted values ​​based on information related to energy-related indicators at time points after the first time point and before the third time point. Note that the third time point shown in Figure 2(b) may be the same time point as the second time point shown in Figure 2(b). If the third time point is the same time point as the second time point, then the predicted values ​​obtained at the third time point can also be said to be predicted values ​​based on information related to energy-related indicators at time points after the first time point and before the second time point.

[0052] The predicted value A (latest value A) shown in Figure 2(b) exceeds the permissible fluctuation range before and after the second time point. Therefore, in the first case, the determination unit 130 determines that the latest value of the energy-related indicator obtained at the third time point does not fall within the permissible fluctuation range. In other words, in the first case, the policy management device 100 determines that a review of the decarbonization policy implementation plan A is necessary. Accordingly, in the first case, the derivation unit 110 uses the predicted value A (latest value A) obtained at the third time point to re-derive the decarbonization policy implementation plan based on predetermined criteria.

[0053] The predicted value B (latest value B) shown in Figure 2(b) does not match the predicted value at the first time point, but it falls within the acceptable range of variation. Therefore, in the second case, the determination unit 130 determines that the latest value of the energy-related indicator obtained at the third time point falls within the acceptable range of variation. In other words, in the second case, the policy management device 100 determines that there is no need to revise the decarbonization policy implementation plan A.

[0054] Figure 2(b) shows an example where the third point in time from which the latest value is obtained is earlier than the second point in time. However, this third point in time may be after the second point in time. In this case, the policy management device 100 may use the measured value at the second point in time as the latest value of the energy-related indicator, instead of the predicted value at the second point in time. That is, the latest value of the energy-related indicator may be a new predicted value or a measured value.

[0055] Next, the operation of the policy management device 100 of this embodiment will be described. Figures 3, 4, and 5 are flowcharts illustrating the operation of the policy management device.

[0056] Figure 3 is a flowchart showing the process of deriving a decarbonization policy implementation plan.

[0057] The policy management device 100 receives the predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators (for example, the predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators shown in Figure 2(a)) that are predicted at the present time (for example, the first time point shown in Figure 2(a)). The derivation unit 110 then uses these predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators to derive a decarbonization policy implementation plan based on predetermined criteria (step S101).

[0058] Next, the evaluation unit 120 evaluates the allowable variation range, which is the range of predicted values ​​from which the same decarbonization policy implementation plan derived in step S101 is derived (step S102). That is, the evaluation unit 120 evaluates the allowable variation range, which is the range of predicted values ​​from which the same decarbonization policy implementation plan is derived by the derivation unit 110 based on the same predetermined criteria.

[0059] Subsequently, for example, the output unit 150 may output information indicating the derived decarbonization policy implementation plan and the evaluated permissible variation range. Alternatively, the policy management device 100 may store information indicating the formulated decarbonization policy implementation plan in a predetermined storage unit based on an operation instructing the user to formulate a decarbonization policy implementation plan. Furthermore, the policy management device 100 may store information indicating the permissible variation range corresponding to the formulated decarbonization policy implementation plan in a predetermined storage unit.

[0060] Figure 4 is a flowchart showing the process for deciding whether to revise the decarbonization policy implementation plan. Note that the actions shown in Figures 4 and 5 are performed assuming, for example, that a decarbonization policy implementation plan has already been formulated and that an acceptable range of variation has been defined.

[0061] The policy management device 100 receives the latest values ​​of energy-related indicators obtained at the present time (for example, the third time point shown in Figure 2(b)) (for example, new predicted values ​​or measured values). The determination unit 130 then determines whether the latest values ​​of the energy-related indicators fall within the permissible fluctuation range (step S201).

[0062] If it is determined that the latest value of the energy-related indicator falls within the acceptable fluctuation range (Yes in step S201), the notification unit 140 evaluates the risk that the value of the energy-related indicator will exceed the acceptable fluctuation range (step S202). Next, the notification unit 140 notifies the result of the risk evaluation (step S203). After that, the policy management device 100 terminates processing.

[0063] If it is determined that the latest value of an energy-related indicator falls outside the acceptable fluctuation range (No. in step S201), the derivation unit 110 uses that latest value to re-derive a decarbonization policy implementation plan based on predetermined criteria (step S204). After that, the policy management device 100 terminates processing.

[0064] Figure 5 is a flowchart showing a modified version of the process for deciding whether to revise the decarbonization policy implementation plan. In the following, we will omit explanations of parts that are the same as the process for deciding whether to revise the decarbonization policy implementation plan shown in Figure 4, and focus on the differences.

[0065] The policy management device 100 receives the latest values ​​of energy-related indicators obtained at the present time (for example, the third time point shown in Figure 2(b)) (for example, new predicted values ​​or measured values). The determination unit 130 then determines whether the latest values ​​of the energy-related indicators fall within the permissible fluctuation range (step S201a).

[0066] If the latest value of an energy-related indicator is determined to be outside the acceptable range of variation (No. in step S201a), the determination unit 130 determines whether the point in time when the value is outside the range occurred before a predetermined reference point (step S201b).

[0067] If it is determined that the point in time when the latest value does not fall within the acceptable range of variation is before a predetermined reference point (Yes in step S201b), the derivation unit 110 uses the latest value to re-derive the decarbonization policy implementation plan based on the predetermined criteria (step S204). After that, the policy management device 100 terminates processing.

[0068] On the other hand, if it is determined that the point in time when the latest value does not fall within the acceptable range of variation is after a predetermined reference point (No. in step S201b), the policy management device 100 terminates processing.

[0069] The operational examples shown in Figures 3, 4, and 5 do not limit the operation of the policy management device 100 of this disclosure. For example, the process of step S102 shown in Figure 3 may be performed before the process of step S201 shown in Figure 4 or the process of step S201a shown in Figure 5. Also, after the process of step S204 shown in Figures 4 and 5, the evaluation unit 120 may evaluate the permissible variation range corresponding to the re-derived decarbonization policy implementation plan. Furthermore, the output unit 150 may output information indicating the re-derived decarbonization policy implementation plan and the corresponding permissible variation range.

[0070] Furthermore, if it is determined in step S201b shown in Figure 5 that the time at which the fluctuation falls outside the allowable range is after a predetermined reference time, the notification unit 140 may execute the processes in steps S202 to S203. The notification unit 140 may also notify the time at which the fluctuation falls outside the allowable range.

[0071] Next, the effects of this embodiment will be described. In this embodiment, the derivation unit 110 derives a decarbonization policy implementation plan based on predetermined criteria using predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators predicted at a first time point. The evaluation unit 120 evaluates the allowable fluctuation range, which is the range of predicted values ​​from which the same decarbonization policy implementation plan is derived based on the same predetermined criteria. The determination unit 130 determines whether the latest values ​​of the energy-related indicators obtained at a time point later than the first time point fall within the allowable fluctuation range. With this configuration, the policy management device 100 can determine whether or not a review of the decarbonization policy implementation plan is necessary using the latest values ​​of the energy-related indicators and the allowable fluctuation range. As a result, the user can suitably determine when the decarbonization policy implementation plan should be reviewed.

[0072] Furthermore, in this embodiment, if the latest value does not fall within the allowable fluctuation range, the derivation unit 110 re-derives a decarbonization measure implementation plan based on predetermined criteria using the latest value. With this configuration, the user can obtain an optimal decarbonization measure implementation plan based on the latest values ​​of energy-related indicators.

[0073] The determination unit 130 may also determine whether the point in time when the latest value of the energy-related indicator falls outside the acceptable fluctuation range is before a predetermined reference point. Furthermore, if the latest value falls outside the acceptable fluctuation range and that point in time is before a predetermined reference point, the derivation unit 110 may use the latest value to re-derive the decarbonization policy implementation plan based on a predetermined standard. With this configuration, the user can determine whether or not it is necessary to revise the decarbonization policy implementation plan considering the prediction accuracy over time.

[0074] In this embodiment, the notification unit 140 compares the allowable fluctuation range with the latest value to evaluate the risk that the value of the energy-related indicator will exceed the allowable fluctuation range. The notification unit 140 also provides a predetermined notification according to the risk evaluation result. With this configuration, the user can recognize the risk in advance before it is determined that the latest value of the energy-related indicator will not fall within the allowable fluctuation range.

[0075] Next, the configuration of the computer related to this disclosure will be described. Figure 6 is a block diagram illustrating the hardware configuration of the computer 1000 that realizes the policy management device 100. The computer 1000 is any computer. For example, the computer 1000 is a stationary computer such as a personal computer or a server machine. Alternatively, the computer 1000 is a portable computer such as a smartphone or a tablet terminal. The computer 1000 may be a dedicated computer designed to realize the policy management device 100, or it may be a general-purpose computer.

[0076] Computer 1000 has a processor 1001, a storage device 1002, memory 1003, a bus 1004, an input / output interface 1005, and a network interface 1006.

[0077] Processor 1001 is a variety of processing units, including CPUs (Central Processing Units), GPUs (Graphics Processing Units), FPGAs (Field-Programmable Gate Arrays), and DSPs (Digital Signal Processors).

[0078] The storage device 1002 is, for example, a non-transitory computer-readable medium. Non-transitory computer-readable media include various types of tangible storage media. Specific examples of non-transitory computer-readable media include semiconductor memory (e.g., mask ROM, PROM (Programmable ROM), EPROM (Erasable PROM), flash ROM).

[0079] Memory 1003 is a main memory system implemented using RAM (Random Access Memory) or similar technologies. Memory 1003 temporarily stores data when the processor 1001 executes processing.

[0080] Bus 1004 is a data transmission path for the processor 1001, memory 1003, storage device 1002, input / output interface 1005, and network interface 1006 to send and receive data to and from each other. However, the method of connecting the processor 1001 and the others to each other is not limited to bus connection.

[0081] The input / output interface 1005 is an interface for connecting the computer 1000 with input / output devices. For example, input devices such as keyboards and output devices such as display devices are connected to the input / output interface 1005.

[0082] The network interface 1006 is an interface for connecting computer 1000 to a network. This network may be a LAN (Local Area Network) or a WAN (Wide Area Network).

[0083] The storage device 1002 stores programs that realize each functional component of the policy management device 100. The processor 1001 reads these programs into the memory 1003 and executes them to realize each functional component of the policy management device 100.

[0084] The policy management device 100 may be implemented by one computer 1000 or by multiple computers 1000. In the latter case, the configuration of each computer 1000 does not need to be the same and can be different.

[0085] Each functional component of the policy management device 100 may be implemented by a combination of the hardware and software described above, or by hardware (for example, a hardwired electronic circuit).

[0086] Next, an overview of this disclosure will be described. Figure 7 is a block diagram illustrating the main components of the policy management device. The policy management device 10 shown in Figure 7 (corresponding to, for example, policy management device 100) includes a derivation unit 11 (implemented by a derivation unit 110 in this embodiment) that derives a decarbonization policy implementation plan based on predetermined criteria using predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators at a second time point predicted at a first time point; an evaluation unit 12 (implemented by an evaluation unit 120 in this embodiment) that evaluates an acceptable fluctuation range, which is the range of predicted values ​​from which the same decarbonization policy implementation plan is derived based on the same predetermined criteria; and a determination unit 13 (implemented by a determination unit 130 in this embodiment) that determines whether the latest values ​​of the energy-related indicators at the second time point, obtained at a third time point after the first time point, fall within the acceptable fluctuation range. With this configuration, the policy management device 10 can determine whether or not a review of the policy implementation plan is necessary using the latest values ​​of the energy-related indicators and the acceptable fluctuation range. As a result, the user can suitably determine when to review the decarbonization policy implementation plan.

[0087] Although the present disclosure has been described above with reference to embodiments, the present disclosure is not limited to the embodiments described above. Various modifications to the structure and details of the present disclosure are possible, as can be understood by those skilled in the art within the scope of the present disclosure. Each embodiment can be combined with other embodiments as appropriate.

[0088] Each drawing is merely illustrative to illustrate one or more embodiments. Each drawing may be associated with one or more other embodiments rather than with only one specific embodiment. As those skilled in the art will understand, various features or steps described with reference to any one drawing can be combined with features or steps shown in one or more other drawings, for example, to create embodiments not explicitly shown or described. Not all features or steps shown in any one drawing to illustrate an exemplary embodiment are necessarily required, and some features or steps may be omitted. The order of steps shown in any of the drawings may be changed as appropriate.

[0089] Some or all of the above embodiments may also be described as follows, but are not limited to the following:

[0090] (Note 1) A derivation unit that uses predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators at a second time point, predicted at a first time point, to derive a decarbonization policy implementation plan based on predetermined criteria, An evaluation unit that evaluates the allowable variation range, which is the range of predicted values ​​from which the same decarbonization policy implementation plan is derived based on the same predetermined criteria, The unit includes a determination unit that determines whether the latest value of the energy-related indicator at the second time point, obtained at a third time point after the first time point, falls within the allowable fluctuation range. A policy management device characterized by the following features.

[0091] (Note 2) The derivation unit, if the latest value does not fall within the allowable variation range, uses the latest value to re-derive the decarbonization policy implementation plan based on the predetermined criteria. The policy management device described in Appendix 1.

[0092] (Note 3) The determination unit determines whether the second time point is before a predetermined reference time point, The derivation unit, if the latest value does not fall within the allowable variation range and the second time point is before the predetermined reference time, uses the latest value to re-derive the decarbonization policy implementation plan based on the predetermined criteria. The policy management device described in Appendix 2.

[0093] (Note 4) The system further includes a notification unit that provides a predetermined notification in accordance with the assessment result of the risk that the value of the energy-related indicator, based on a comparison between the allowable fluctuation range and the latest value, exceeds the allowable fluctuation range. A policy management device as described in any of the appendices 1 to 3.

[0094] (Note 5) The risk that the value of the energy-related indicator will exceed the permissible fluctuation range is evaluated based on the distance from the upper or lower limit of the permissible fluctuation range to the latest value. The policy management device described in Appendix 4.

[0095] (Note 6) The latest value is a predicted value based on information related to the energy-related indicators at a time after the first time point and before the second time point. A policy management device as described in any of the appendices 1 through 5.

[0096] (Note 7) The third time point is a time point after the second time point, The latest value is the measured value of the energy-related indicator at the second time point in time. A policy management device as described in any of the appendices 1 through 5.

[0097] (Note 8) The second time point mentioned above is a set of multiple time points that occur after the first time point mentioned above. A policy management device as described in any of the appendices 1 through 7.

[0098] (Note 9) Computers Using the predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators at the second time point, which were predicted at the first time point, a decarbonization policy implementation plan is derived based on predetermined criteria. The permissible range of variation, which is the range of predicted values ​​from which the same decarbonization policy implementation plan is derived based on the same predetermined criteria, is evaluated. At a third time point, after the first time point, it is determined whether the latest value of the energy-related indicator obtained at the second time point falls within the allowable fluctuation range. A policy management method characterized by the following features.

[0099] (Note 10) On the computer, A derivation process that uses the predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators at a second time point, which were predicted at a first time point, to derive a decarbonization policy implementation plan based on predetermined criteria, An evaluation process for evaluating the allowable variation range, which is the range of predicted values ​​from which the same decarbonization policy implementation plan is derived based on the same predetermined criteria, A determination process is performed to determine whether the latest value of the energy-related indicator obtained at the second time point, which is obtained at a third time point after the first time point, falls within the allowable fluctuation range. A program for managing policies to ensure their implementation.

[0100] Some or all of the elements (e.g., configuration and function) described in Appendices 2 to 8 that are dependent on Appendice 1 may also be dependent on Appendices 9 and 10 in the same way as those described in Appendices 2 to 8. Some or all of the elements described in any appendice may be applicable to various hardware, software, recording means, systems, and methods for recording software. [Explanation of Symbols]

[0101] 10,100 Policy management device 11,110 Derivation part 12,120 Evaluation Department 13,130 Judgment section 140 Notification Department 150 Output section 1000 computers 1001 Processor 1002 Storage device 1003 memory 1004 Bus 1005 Input / Output Interface 1006 Network Interface

Claims

1. A derivation unit that uses predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators at a second time point, predicted at a first time point, to derive a decarbonization policy implementation plan based on predetermined criteria, An evaluation unit that evaluates the allowable variation range, which is the range of predicted values ​​from which the same decarbonization policy implementation plan is derived based on the same predetermined criteria, The system includes a determination unit that determines whether the latest value of the energy-related indicator obtained at the second time point, which is obtained at a third time point after the first time point, falls within the allowable fluctuation range. A policy management device characterized by the following features.

2. The derivation unit, if the latest value does not fall within the allowable variation range, uses the latest value to re-derive the decarbonization policy implementation plan based on the predetermined criteria. The policy management device according to claim 1.

3. The determination unit determines whether the second time point is before a predetermined reference time point, The derivation unit, if the latest value does not fall within the allowable variation range and the second time point is before the predetermined reference time, uses the latest value to re-derive the decarbonization policy implementation plan based on the predetermined criteria. The policy management device according to claim 2.

4. The system further includes a notification unit that provides a predetermined notification in accordance with the assessment result of the risk that the value of the energy-related indicator, based on a comparison between the allowable fluctuation range and the latest value, exceeds the allowable fluctuation range. A policy management device according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

5. The risk that the value of the energy-related indicator will exceed the permissible fluctuation range is evaluated based on the distance from the upper or lower limit of the permissible fluctuation range to the latest value. The policy management device according to claim 4.

6. The latest value is a predicted value based on information related to the energy-related indicators at a time after the first time point and before the second time point. A policy management device according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

7. The third time point is a time point after the second time point, The latest value is the measured value of the energy-related indicator at the second time point in time. A policy management device according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

8. The second time point mentioned above is a set of multiple time points that occur after the first time point mentioned above. A policy management device according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

9. Computers Using the predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators at the second time point, which were predicted at the first time point, a decarbonization policy implementation plan is derived based on predetermined criteria. The permissible range of variation, which is the range of predicted values ​​from which the same decarbonization policy implementation plan is derived based on the same predetermined criteria, is evaluated. At a third time point, after the first time point, it is determined whether the latest value of the energy-related indicator obtained at the second time point falls within the allowable fluctuation range. A policy management method characterized by the following features.

10. On the computer, A derivation process that uses the predicted values ​​of energy-related indicators at a second time point, which were predicted at a first time point, to derive a decarbonization policy implementation plan based on predetermined criteria, An evaluation process for evaluating the allowable variation range, which is the range of predicted values ​​from which the same decarbonization policy implementation plan is derived based on the same predetermined criteria, A determination process is performed to determine whether the latest value of the energy-related indicator obtained at the second time point, which is obtained at a third time point after the first time point, falls within the allowable fluctuation range. A program for managing policies to ensure their implementation.

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