Demand forecast display device, demand forecast display method, and demand forecast display program

Abstract

To realize a demand forecasting display device that can provide users with information to make more accurate product demand forecasts. [Solution] The demand forecasting display device comprises: a consumption forecasting unit that uses purchase data showing the actual purchase history of the product by consumers to forecast consumer demand for the product for each unit period during the forecast period; a wholesale shipment forecasting unit that uses wholesale shipment data showing the actual shipment history of the product by wholesalers to forecast wholesale shipment demand for each unit period during the forecast period; a manufacturer shipment forecasting unit that uses manufacturer shipment data showing the actual shipment history of the product by manufacturers to forecast manufacturer shipment demand for each unit period during the forecast period; and a display control unit that displays the forecast results for consumer demand, the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand, and the forecast results for manufacturer shipment demand on a common time axis.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a technique for displaying demand prediction.

Background Art

[0002] Techniques for demand prediction are known. For example, in Patent Document 1, for a product, the category of the product, the number of products shipped from a wholesaler to a retailer on each day from 1 day before to 7 days before the target day, and the number of days in stock or the average number of products sold by the retailer are acquired as input information, and by inputting the input information into a learning model generated by executing supervised learning, a prediction system that outputs prediction information regarding the number of products that a wholesaler ships to a retailer on the target day from the learning model is disclosed.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0003]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0004] In the technique described in Patent Document 1, although the number of products shipped from a wholesaler to a retailer can be predicted, there is room for improvement from the viewpoint of more accurately predicting the demand for products.

[0005] The present disclosure has been made in view of the above problems, and an exemplary object thereof is to provide a technique for more accurately predicting the demand for products.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0006] An exemplary demand forecasting display device relating to this disclosure includes: a consumption forecasting means that uses purchase data showing the actual purchase history of a product by a consumer to forecast the consumer demand for the product for each unit period during the forecast period; a wholesale shipment forecasting means that uses wholesale shipment data showing the actual shipment history of the product by a wholesaler to forecast the wholesale shipment demand for each unit period during the forecast period; a manufacturer shipment forecasting means that uses manufacturer shipment data showing the actual shipment history of the product by a manufacturer to forecast the manufacturer to forecast the manufacturer shipment demand for each unit period during the forecast period; and a display control means that displays the forecast results for consumer demand, the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand, and the forecast results for manufacturer shipment demand on a common time axis.

[0007] A demand forecast display method relating to an exemplary aspect of this disclosure includes: a consumption forecasting process in which at least one processor uses purchase history data indicating the actual purchase history of a product by a consumer to forecast the consumer demand for the product for each unit period during the forecast period; a wholesale shipment forecasting process in which at least one processor uses wholesale shipment history data indicating the actual shipment history of the product by a wholesaler to forecast the wholesale shipment demand for each unit period during the forecast period; a manufacturer shipment forecasting process in which at least one processor uses manufacturer shipment history data indicating the actual shipment history of the product by a manufacturer to forecast the manufacturer shipment demand for each unit period during the forecast period; and a display control process in which at least one processor displays the forecast results for consumer demand, the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand, and the forecast results for manufacturer shipment demand for each unit period during the forecast period on a display device on a common time axis.

[0008] An exemplary aspect of the present disclosure relates to a demand forecast display program, which is a program for causing a computer to function as a demand forecast display device, and causes the computer to function as: a consumption forecasting means for forecasting consumer demand for a product for each unit period during a forecast period using purchase history data showing consumer purchase history of the product; a wholesale shipment forecasting means for forecasting wholesale shipment demand for a product for each unit period during a forecast period using wholesale shipment history data showing wholesale shipment history of the product; a manufacturer shipment forecasting means for forecasting manufacturer shipment demand for each unit period during a forecast period using manufacturer shipment history data showing manufacturer shipment history of the product; and a display control means for displaying the forecast results of consumer demand, the forecast results of wholesale shipment demand, and the forecast results of manufacturer shipment demand on a display device on a common time axis. [Effects of the Invention]

[0009] One exemplary effect of this disclosure is that it can provide technology for more accurately forecasting product demand. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0010] [Figure 1] This is a block diagram showing the configuration of the demand forecasting display device related to this disclosure. [Figure 2] This flowchart shows the flow of the demand forecast display method related to this disclosure. [Figure 3] This figure shows the configuration of the demand forecasting system related to this disclosure. [Figure 4] This is a block diagram showing the configuration of the information processing device related to this disclosure. [Figure 5] This figure shows an example of the demand forecast screen related to this disclosure. [Figure 6] This figure shows an example of the demand forecast screen related to this disclosure. [Figure 7] This is a block diagram showing the configuration of a computer that functions as a demand forecasting display device and information processing device related to this disclosure. [Modes for carrying out the invention]

[0011] The following are examples of embodiments of the present invention. However, the present invention is not limited to the exemplary embodiments shown below, and various modifications are possible within the scope of the claims. For example, embodiments obtained by appropriately combining some or all of the technologies (things or methods) employed in each of the exemplary embodiments shown below may also be included in the scope of the present invention. Furthermore, embodiments obtained by appropriately omitting some of the technologies employed in each of the exemplary embodiments shown below may also be included in the scope of the present invention. In addition, the effects mentioned in each of the exemplary embodiments shown below are examples of effects that can be expected in that exemplary embodiment and do not define the scope of the present invention. That is, embodiments that do not produce the effects mentioned in each of the exemplary embodiments shown below may also be included in the scope of the present invention.

[0012] [First Exemplary Embodiment] A first exemplary embodiment, which is an example of an embodiment of the present invention, will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. This exemplary embodiment is the basic form for each of the exemplary embodiments described later. The scope of application of each technology adopted in this exemplary embodiment is not limited to this exemplary embodiment. That is, each technology adopted in this exemplary embodiment can also be adopted in other exemplary embodiments included in this disclosure, to the extent that no particular technical problems occur. Furthermore, each technology shown in the drawings referenced to explain this exemplary embodiment can also be adopted in other exemplary embodiments included in this disclosure, to the extent that no particular technical problems occur.

[0013] (Configuration of demand forecasting display device) The configuration of the demand forecast display device 1 will be described with reference to Figure 1. Figure 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the demand forecast display device 1. As shown in Figure 1, the demand forecast display device 1 includes a consumption forecasting unit 11, a wholesale shipment forecasting unit 12, a manufacturer shipment forecasting unit 13, and a display control unit 14.

[0014] The consumption prediction unit 11 predicts the demand of the consumers for the product per unit period in the prediction target period using the purchase performance data indicating the purchase performance of the product by the consumers. The wholesale and shipping prediction unit 12 predicts the demand for the wholesale and shipping of the product per unit period in the prediction target period using the wholesale and shipping performance data indicating the shipping performance of the product by the wholesalers. The manufacturer shipping prediction unit 13 predicts the demand for the manufacturer shipping of the product per unit period in the prediction target period using the manufacturer shipping performance data indicating the shipping performance of the product by the manufacturer. The display control unit 14 displays on the display device on a common time axis the prediction result of the demand of the consumers per unit period in the prediction target period, the prediction result of the demand for the wholesale and shipping, and the prediction result of the demand for the manufacturer shipping.

[0015] (Effect of the demand prediction display device) As described above, in the demand prediction display device 1, the consumption prediction unit 11 that predicts the demand of the consumers for the product per unit period in the prediction target period using the purchase performance data indicating the purchase performance of the product by the consumers, the wholesale and shipping prediction unit 12 that predicts the demand for the wholesale and shipping of the product per unit period in the prediction target period using the wholesale and shipping performance data indicating the shipping performance of the product by the wholesalers, the manufacturer shipping prediction unit 13 that predicts the demand for the manufacturer shipping of the product per unit period in the prediction target period using the manufacturer shipping performance data indicating the shipping performance of the product by the manufacturer, and the display control unit 14 that displays on the display device on a common time axis the prediction result of the demand of the consumers per unit period in the prediction target period, the prediction result of the demand for the wholesale and shipping, and the prediction result of the demand for the manufacturer shipping are provided. Therefore, according to the demand prediction display device 1, an effect can be obtained that information for more accurately predicting the demand of the product can be presented to the user.

[0016] (Flow of the demand prediction display method) The flow of the demand prediction display method S1 will be described with reference to FIG. 2. FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing the flow of the demand prediction display method S1. As shown in FIG. 2, the demand prediction display method S1 includes a consumption prediction process S11, a wholesale and shipping prediction process S12, a manufacturer shipping prediction process S13, and a display control process S14.

[0017] In the consumption prediction process S11, at least one processor predicts the demand of the consumers for each unit period of the product during the prediction target period using purchase performance data indicating the purchase performance of the product by the consumers. In the wholesale and shipping prediction process S12, the at least one processor predicts the demand for wholesale and shipping of the product for each unit period during the prediction target period using wholesale and shipping performance data indicating the shipping performance of the product by the wholesalers. In the manufacturer shipping prediction process S13, the at least one processor predicts the demand for manufacturer shipping of the product for each unit period during the prediction target period using manufacturer shipping performance data indicating the shipping performance of the product by the manufacturers. In the display control process S14, the at least one processor displays, on a display device on a common time axis, the prediction results of the demand of the consumers for each unit period during the prediction target period, the prediction results of the demand for wholesale and shipping, and the prediction results of the demand for manufacturer shipping.

[0018] (Effect of the demand prediction display method) As described above, the demand forecast display method S1 employs a configuration that includes: a consumption forecasting process S11 in which at least one processor uses purchase history data showing the actual purchase history of the product by consumers to forecast consumer demand for the product for each unit period during the forecast period; a wholesale shipment forecasting process S12 in which at least one processor uses wholesale shipment history data showing the actual shipment history of the product by wholesalers to forecast wholesale shipment demand for each unit period during the forecast period; a manufacturer shipment forecasting process S13 in which at least one processor uses manufacturer shipment history data showing the actual shipment history of the product by manufacturers to forecast manufacturer shipment demand for each unit period during the forecast period; and a display control process S14 in which at least one processor displays the forecast results for consumer demand, the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand, and the forecast results for manufacturer shipment demand for each unit period during the forecast period on a display device on a common time axis. Therefore, the demand forecast display method S1 has the effect of being able to present users with information that allows for more accurate forecasting of product demand.

[0019] [Second exemplary embodiment] A second exemplary embodiment, which is an example of an embodiment of the present invention, will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. Components having the same function as those described in the above-described exemplary embodiment are denoted by the same reference numerals, and their descriptions are omitted as appropriate. The scope of application of each technology adopted in this exemplary embodiment is not limited to this exemplary embodiment. That is, each technology adopted in this exemplary embodiment can also be adopted in other exemplary embodiments included in this disclosure, to the extent that no particular technical problems arise. Furthermore, each technology shown in the drawings referenced to describe this exemplary embodiment can also be adopted in other exemplary embodiments included in this disclosure, to the extent that no particular technical problems arise.

[0020] (Configuration of the demand forecasting system) The demand forecasting system 100A disclosed herein is a system for forecasting the demand for goods. In the distribution of goods, it is common for manufacturers to ship their manufactured goods to wholesalers, for wholesalers to ship the goods to retailers, and for retailers to sell the goods to consumers. In addition, consumers may purchase goods directly from manufacturers through websites such as e-commerce sites. The demand forecasting system 100A disclosed herein does not forecast demand solely from the manufacturer's shipment record, but performs multifaceted demand forecasting using the shipment record of wholesalers and the sales record of retailers. More specifically, the demand forecasting system 100A forecasts not only the demand for manufacturer shipments, but also the demand for final consumption and the demand for wholesale shipments, and presents the forecast results to the user (for example, a manufacturer's planner). Furthermore, the demand forecasting system 100A displays the demand forecast results for multiple stages in the distribution of goods (manufacturer shipment, wholesale shipment, final consumption, etc.) on a single screen, and visualizes the difference, which is market inventory or the increase or decrease in market inventory, thereby achieving more accurate demand forecasting.

[0021] The configuration of the demand forecasting system 100A will be described with reference to Figure 3. Figure 3 is a diagram showing the configuration of the demand forecasting system 100A. The demand forecasting system 100A comprises an information processing device 1A and a user terminal 2A. The information processing device 1A and the user terminal 2A are connected to each other via a communication line N. The specific configuration of the communication line N is not limited to this embodiment, but examples of communication line N include wireless LAN (Local Area Network), wired LAN, WAN (Wide Area Network), public telephone network, mobile data communication network, or a combination thereof.

[0022] Information processing device 1A is a device equipped with the function of predicting product demand, and is, for example, a general-purpose server. Information processing device 1A may also be a personal computer such as a laptop PC or tablet terminal. User terminal 2A is a terminal used by a user (for example, a manufacturer's planner), and is, for example, a personal computer such as a laptop PC or tablet terminal. In the example in Figure 3, one user terminal 2A is illustrated, but two or more user terminals 2A may be included in the demand forecasting system 100A.

[0023] (Configuration of information processing device) The configuration of the information processing device 1A will be explained with reference to Figure 4. Figure 4 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the information processing device 1A. The information processing device 1A comprises a control unit 10A, a storage unit 20A, a communication unit 30A, an input unit 40A, and an output unit 50A. The communication unit 30A communicates with external devices (user terminal 2A, etc.) of the information processing device 1A via a communication line N. The communication unit 30A transmits data supplied from the control unit 10A to other devices and supplies data received from other devices to the control unit 10A.

[0024] (Input section / Output section) The input unit 40A is configured to receive input to the information processing device 1A, and may include, for example, an input device such as a keyboard, mouse, touch panel, camera, or microphone. The input unit 40A may also be configured to receive data from the input device via an interface such as USB (Universal Serial Bus). The output unit 50A is configured to output from the information processing device 1A, and may include, for example, an output device such as a display, printer, touch panel, or speaker. The output unit 50A may also be configured to have an interface such as USB and output data to the output device via that interface.

[0025] (Storage part) The memory unit 20A stores various types of information that are referenced by the control unit 10A. Examples of such information include purchase history data 201, wholesale shipment history data 202, and manufacturer shipment history data 203.

[0026] Purchase history data 201 is data that shows consumers' purchase history of goods. Examples of purchase history data 201 include POS (Point of Sale) data and e-commerce shipment data. POS data is data that shows the sales history of goods in stores. POS data may include information such as product name, price, quantity, store of purchase, date and time of purchase, and customer information (age group, gender, date and time of visit, etc.). E-commerce shipment data is data that shows the sales history of goods through e-commerce. Purchase history data 201 can also be described as time-series data showing consumers' purchase history of goods for each unit period.

[0027] Wholesale shipment data 202 shows the actual shipment records of goods by wholesalers. Manufacturer shipment data 203 shows the actual shipment records of goods by manufacturers.

[0028] (Control Unit) The control unit 10A includes an acquisition unit 11A, a consumption forecasting unit 12A, a wholesale shipment forecasting unit 13A, a manufacturer shipment forecasting unit 14A, an inventory forecasting unit 15A, a display control unit 16A, a reception unit 17A, a memory control unit 18A, and a detection unit 19A. The acquisition unit 11A is an example of the acquisition and estimation means related to this disclosure. The consumption forecasting unit 12A, wholesale shipment forecasting unit 13A, manufacturer shipment forecasting unit 14A, inventory forecasting unit 15A, display control unit 16A, reception unit 17A, memory control unit 18A, and detection unit 19A are examples of the consumption forecasting means, wholesale shipment forecasting means, manufacturer shipment forecasting means, inventory forecasting means, display control means, reception means, memory control means, and detection means related to this disclosure, respectively.

[0029] (Acquisition Department) The acquisition unit 11A acquires purchase history data 201, wholesale shipment history data 202, and manufacturer shipment history data 203. For example, the acquisition unit 11A may receive the above data from another device via the communication unit 30A. Alternatively, the acquisition unit 11A may acquire the above data input to the input unit 40A. Alternatively, the acquisition unit 11A may acquire the above data by reading it from a storage location specified by the user of the information processing device 1A (which may be a storage device within the information processing device 1A or a storage device outside the information processing device 1A). Hereinafter, when it is not necessary to distinguish between purchase history data 201, wholesale shipment history data 202, and manufacturer shipment history data 203, they will also be referred to as "history data".

[0030] (Consumption Forecasting Department) The consumption forecasting unit 12A uses purchase history data 201 to forecast consumer demand for products for each unit period during the forecast period and generates data showing the forecast results. Here, the forecast period is the period to be forecasted, for example, one year, but is not limited to this. The unit period is the period used as the unit for demand forecasting, for example, one month, one day, or one ten-day period, but is not limited to these. The data showing the forecast results is, as an example, time-series data of the forecasted demand for each unit period. The forecasted demand is, as an example, the forecasted number of products sold or the forecasted sales amount of products, but is not limited to these.

[0031] The consumption forecasting unit 12A predicts consumer demand by, for example, (a) a time series analysis method, (b) a pre-trained model method, or (c) a user-provided information aggregation method. (a) The time series analysis method is a method that analyzes data that changes over time and predicts how the data will change in the next period, and conventional analysis methods can be used.

[0032] (b) The method using a pre-trained model is a method of forecasting demand by inputting various data into a pre-trained model generated by machine learning. In this case, the pre-trained model may be, but is not limited to, a neural network model such as a convolutional neural network or a recurrent neural network. In this case, the input to the pre-trained model may include, as an example, time-series data (purchase history data) showing the purchase history of products by consumers for each unit period. In addition to purchase history data, the input to the pre-trained model may also include other data such as information indicating the product category, information related to product marketing, and information indicating the external environment for each unit period. Information indicating the product category may include, as an example, information indicating the product category such as "drinking water" or "fresh food". Information related to product marketing may include, as an example, information indicating the scale and duration of the promotion. Information indicating the external environment may include, as an example, the average temperature and the number of foreign visitors to Japan. In addition, the output of the pre-trained model may include, as an example, the forecast result of demand for products for each unit period during the forecast period. The pre-trained model is stored in a memory device such as the memory unit 20A. Here, when we say that a trained model is stored in memory, we mean that the parameters that define the trained model are stored in memory.

[0033] (c) The method for aggregating user-provided information is a method for aggregating planned values ​​created by users (e.g., retail store managers, etc.). When using this method, the consumption forecasting unit 12A receives planned values ​​created by users such as retail store managers via the communication unit 30A, aggregates the received planned values, and forecasts demand. However, the method by which the consumption forecasting unit 12A forecasts demand is not limited to the example described above, and the consumption forecasting unit 12A may forecast consumer demand using other methods.

[0034] (Wholesale Shipment Forecasting Department) The wholesale shipment forecasting unit 13A uses the wholesale shipment performance data 202 to forecast the demand for wholesale shipments of goods for each unit period during the forecast period and generates data showing the forecast results. The data showing the forecast results is, as an example, time-series data of the forecasted demand for each unit period. The forecasted demand is, as an example, the forecasted number of goods shipped or the forecasted sales amount corresponding to the number of goods shipped, but is not limited to these.

[0035] The wholesale shipment forecasting unit 13A predicts the demand for wholesale shipments by, for example, (a) a time series analysis method, (b) a pre-trained model method, or (c) a method of aggregating information provided by the user. However, the method used by the wholesale shipment forecasting unit 13A to predict demand is not limited to the examples described above, and the wholesale shipment forecasting unit 13A may predict the demand for wholesale shipments by other methods. The content of the demand forecasting process performed by the wholesale shipment forecasting unit 13A is the same as that performed by the demand forecasting process performed by the consumption forecasting unit 12A, except that it uses wholesale shipment data 202 instead of purchase data 201.

[0036] (Manufacturer Shipment Forecasting Department) The manufacturer shipment forecasting unit 14A uses manufacturer shipment performance data 203 to forecast the demand for manufacturer shipments of products for each unit period during the forecast period and generates data showing the forecast results. The data showing the forecast results is, as an example, time-series data of the forecasted demand for each unit period. The forecasted demand is, as an example, the forecasted number of product shipments or the forecasted sales amount corresponding to the number of product shipments, but is not limited to these.

[0037] The manufacturer shipment forecasting unit 14A predicts the demand for manufacturer shipments by, for example, (a) a time series analysis method, (b) a pre-trained model method, or (c) a method of aggregating user-provided information. However, the methods used by the manufacturer shipment forecasting unit 14A to predict demand are not limited to the examples described above, and the manufacturer shipment forecasting unit 14A may predict the demand for manufacturer shipments by other methods. The demand forecasting process performed by the manufacturer shipment forecasting unit 14A is the same as the demand forecasting process performed by the consumption forecasting unit 12A, but differs in that it uses manufacturer shipment data 203 instead of purchase history data 201.

[0038] (Inventory Forecasting Department) The inventory forecasting unit 15A uses the forecast results for consumer demand and the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand to forecast the quantity or increase / decrease in retail inventory of a product for each unit period within the forecast period. As an example, the inventory forecasting unit 15A uses the forecast values ​​for wholesale shipments and the forecast values ​​for consumer demand for each unit period to forecast the increase / decrease in retail inventory of a product for each unit period. Alternatively, as an example, the inventory forecasting unit 15A may calculate the forecast value for retail inventory of a product for each unit period using the forecast values ​​for wholesale shipments in that unit period, the forecast values ​​for consumer demand in that unit period, and the retail inventory quantity in the previous unit period (for example, the previous month).

[0039] Furthermore, the inventory forecasting unit 15A uses the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand and the forecast results for manufacturer shipments to forecast the quantity or increase / decrease in wholesale inventory of the product for each unit period within the forecast period. As an example, the inventory forecasting unit 15A uses the forecast values ​​for manufacturer shipment demand and wholesale shipment demand for each unit period to forecast the increase / decrease in wholesale inventory of the product for each unit period. Alternatively, as an example, the inventory forecasting unit 15A may calculate the forecast value for wholesale inventory of the product for each unit period using the forecast value for manufacturer shipments in that unit period, the forecast value for wholesale shipment demand in that unit period, and the manufacturer inventory quantity in the previous unit period (for example, the previous month).

[0040] Furthermore, the inventory forecasting unit 15A may calculate, in addition to the above forecast values, the year-on-year change in the amount or increase / decrease in retail inventory as a forecast result. The inventory forecasting unit 15A may also calculate the amount or increase / decrease in retail inventory per store as a forecast result. Furthermore, the inventory forecasting unit 15A may also calculate the year-on-year change in the amount or increase / decrease in wholesale inventory as a forecast result, or it may calculate the average number of days of inventory for wholesale inventory as a forecast result.

[0041] (Display Control Unit) The display control unit 16A outputs data representing various screens to a display (display device) and causes the screen to be displayed on the display. The display is, for example, the display of a user terminal 2A. In this case, the display control unit 16A transmits data representing the screen to the user terminal 2A via the communication unit 30A and causes the screen to be displayed on the display of the user terminal 2A. In this disclosure, the act of the display control unit 16A transmitting data representing the screen to the user terminal 2A and causing the screen to be displayed on the display of the user terminal 2A is also referred to as "the display control unit 16A displays the screen".

[0042] Alternatively, the display control unit 16A may display the screen on the display connected to the output unit 50A by outputting data representing the screen to the display.

[0043] The display control unit 16A specifically displays the predicted consumer demand, wholesale shipment demand, and manufacturer shipment demand for each unit period within the forecast period on a display device on a common time axis. Hereinafter, the predicted consumer demand by the consumption forecasting unit 12A, the predicted wholesale shipment demand by the wholesale shipment forecasting unit 13A, and the predicted manufacturer shipment demand by the manufacturer shipment forecasting unit 14A will also be referred to as "demand forecasting results."

[0044] Furthermore, at this time, the display control unit 16A may display the forecast results from the inventory forecasting unit 15A on the display along the time axis. In other words, the display control unit 16A may display the forecast values ​​for wholesale shipment inventory and manufacturer shipment inventory predicted by the inventory forecasting unit 15A along with the demand forecast results on a common time axis.

[0045] Furthermore, the display control unit 16A may display on the display at least one of the following on the time axis: (i) the ratio of the predicted consumer demand to the actual consumer purchases of goods, (ii) the ratio of the predicted wholesale demand to the actual shipments of goods by wholesalers, and (iii) the ratio of the predicted manufacturer demand to the actual shipments of goods by manufacturers. In addition, the display control unit 16A may display on the display the detection results from the detection unit 19A, which will be described later.

[0046] (Screen example 1) Figure 5 shows an example of the demand forecast screen SC11 displayed on the display by the display control unit 16A. In the example in Figure 5, the demand forecast screen SC11 displays actual data showing the actual volume of goods distributed in each unit period N-3, N-2, and N-1, and forecast result data showing the forecast results of demand in each unit period N, N+1, N+2, ... Furthermore, the demand forecast screen SC11 displays the forecast results for consumer demand, the forecast results for wholesale shipments, and the forecast results for manufacturer shipments on the same time axis.

[0047] (Performance data) In the example in Figure 5, the performance data is time-series data of the actual volume of goods distributed for each unit period, and includes multiple items: "final consumption," "retail inventory," "wholesale shipments," "wholesale inventory," and "manufacturer shipments." "Final consumption" is data showing the actual sales performance of goods at retailers (i.e., the actual purchase performance of goods by consumers). "Final consumption" also includes the "year-on-year" item. "Year-on-year" is the year-on-year change in the actual sales value for each unit period.

[0048] "Retail inventory" is data showing the inventory levels of retailers. "Retail inventory" also includes "Year-on-Year" and "Per Store" items. "Year-on-Year" is the year-on-year change in the retailer's inventory level for that product. "Per Store" is the inventory level per store. "Wholesale shipments" is data showing the actual shipment performance of goods by wholesalers. "Wholesale shipments" also includes a "Year-on-Year" item. "Year-on-Year" is the year-on-year change in the actual shipment performance of that product for each unit period.

[0049] "Wholesale inventory" is data that shows the inventory volume of wholesalers. "Wholesale inventory" also includes the items "Year-on-year change" and "Inventory days". "Year-on-year change" is the year-on-year change in the inventory volume of the wholesaler of the product for each unit period. "Inventory days" is the average number of inventory days for the wholesaler of that product. For example, the inventory forecasting unit 15A may calculate the inventory days using past performance for the inventory at that point in time, or it may calculate the inventory days using future demand forecasts, or it may combine these methods to calculate the inventory days.

[0050] "Manufacturer shipments" is data showing the actual volume of products shipped by manufacturers. "Manufacturer shipments" also includes a "year-on-year comparison" item, which represents the year-on-year change in product shipment performance.

[0051] (Prediction result data) The forecast result data is time-series data of predicted demand values ​​for a product for each unit period, and is generated by the consumption forecasting unit 12A, the wholesale shipment forecasting unit 13A, and the manufacturer shipment forecasting unit 14A. The forecast result data includes multiple items such as "final consumption," "retail inventory," "wholesale shipment," "wholesale inventory," and "manufacturer shipment."

[0052] "Final Consumption" is data that shows the forecast results of product demand at retailers, and is data generated by the consumption forecasting unit 12A. "Final Consumption" includes multiple items such as "Year-on-Year Comparison," "Intention," and "Year-on-Year Comparison." "Year-on-Year Comparison" is the ratio of the forecast demand result to the actual sales performance of the product in the previous year for each unit period. In other words, the display control unit 16A can also be said to display the ratio of the forecast results of consumer demand to the actual purchase performance of the product by consumers for each unit period.

[0053] The "Intention Input" field is an item that allows the user to change the value of "Final Consumption." The "Intention Input" field has the same default value as "Final Consumption," but the user can change this value. When the user inputs a correction value using the input section (not shown) of the user terminal 2A, the user terminal 2A transmits the correction value entered by the user to the information processing device 1A, and the display control unit 16A of the information processing device 1A changes the value of the "Intention Input" field on the demand forecast screen SC11 to the correction value entered by the user. When the value of the "Intention Input" field is changed, the display control unit 16A sets the ratio of the correction value to the sales performance of the previous year for that product in the "Year-on-Year Comparison" field below the "Intention Input" field.

[0054] "Retail inventory" is data that shows the predicted inventory levels of retailers. "Retail inventory" also includes "Year-on-Year" and "Per Store" items. "Year-on-Year" is the year-on-year change in the predicted inventory level of the retailer for that product. "Per Store" is the inventory level of the product per store.

[0055] "Wholesale Shipments" is an item that displays the forecast results of the demand for goods at wholesalers. "Wholesale Shipments" also includes the items "Year-on-Year Comparison," "Incoming Shipments," and "Year-on-Year Comparison." "Year-on-Year Comparison" is the ratio of the forecast demand result to the actual shipments of the goods for each unit period. In other words, the display control unit 16A can also be said to display the ratio of the forecast results of wholesale shipment demand to the actual shipments of goods by wholesalers.

[0056] The "Intention Input" field is used by the user to change the value of "Wholesale Shipment". The "Intention Input" field has the same default value as "Wholesale Shipment", but the user can change this value. When the user inputs a correction value using the input section (not shown) of the user terminal 2A, the user terminal 2A transmits the correction value entered by the user to the information processing device 1A, and the display control unit 16A of the information processing device 1A changes the value of the "Intention Input" field on the demand forecast screen SC11 to the correction value entered by the user. When the value of the "Intention Input" field is changed, the display control unit 16A sets the ratio of the correction value to the previous year's shipment performance of that product in the "Year-on-Year Comparison" field below the "Intention Input" field.

[0057] "Wholesale Inventory" is an item that displays the predicted inventory levels of wholesalers. "Wholesale Inventory" also includes the items "Year-on-Year Comparison" and "Inventory Days." "Year-on-Year Comparison" is the year-on-year change in the predicted inventory levels of the wholesaler for that product for each unit period. "Inventory Days" is the average number of inventory days for the wholesaler for that product.

[0058] "Manufacturer Shipments" is an item that displays the forecast results of manufacturer shipment demand. "Manufacturer Shipments" also includes the items "Year-on-Year Comparison," "Intended Shipments," and "Year-on-Year Comparison." "Year-on-Year Comparison" shows the ratio of manufacturer shipment demand to actual manufacturer shipments in the previous year. In other words, the display control unit 16A can also be said to display the ratio of the forecast results of manufacturer shipment demand to actual manufacturer shipments for each unit period.

[0059] The "Intention Input" field is used by the user to change the value of "Manufacturer Shipment". The "Intention Input" field has the same default value as "Manufacturer Shipment", but the user can change this value. When the user inputs a correction value using the input section (not shown) of the user terminal 2A, the user terminal 2A transmits the correction value entered by the user to the information processing device 1A, and the display control unit 16A of the information processing device 1A changes the value of the "Intention Input" field on the demand forecast screen SC11 to the correction value entered by the user. When the value of the "Intention Input" field is changed, the display control unit 16A sets the ratio of the correction value to the previous year's shipment performance of that product in the "Year-on-Year Comparison" field below the "Intention Input" field.

[0060] Furthermore, in the screen shown in Figure 5, the display control unit 16A may display the actual data and the forecast result data on the display in different display modes. In other words, the display control unit 16A may display the forecast results from the consumption forecast unit 12A, the forecast results from the wholesale shipment forecast unit 13A, and the forecast results from the manufacturer shipment forecast unit 14A on the display in a first display mode on the time axis, and may also display the actual purchase data, the actual shipment data, and the actual shipment data on the time axis on the display in a second display mode. Specifically, as an example, the display control unit 16A may display the demand forecast results and actual data on the display in different color schemes.

[0061] Furthermore, in the screen shown in Figure 5, the display control unit 16A may display the increase or decrease in inventory for each unit period on the display instead of the retail inventory quantity. In this case, the display control unit 16A may display different displays depending on whether the increase or decrease in inventory is positive (increase in inventory) or negative (decrease in inventory). For example, the display control unit 16A may display different colors depending on whether the increase or decrease in inventory is positive or negative.

[0062] (Screen example 2) Figure 6 shows an example of another demand forecast screen displayed on the display by the display control unit 16A. In the example in Figure 6, screen SC12 includes graph display areas A121 and A122. Graph display area A121 displays a graph showing the balance between final consumption and wholesale shipments. Graph display area A122 displays a graph showing the balance between wholesale shipments and manufacturer shipments.

[0063] In graph display area A121, a bar graph showing the trends in actual and projected retail inventory, a line graph showing the year-on-year change in final consumption, and a line graph showing the year-on-year change in wholesale shipments are displayed. In addition, in graph display area A122, a bar graph showing the trends in actual and projected wholesale inventory, a line graph showing the year-on-year change in wholesale shipments, and a line graph showing the year-on-year change in manufacturer shipments are displayed.

[0064] (Other screen examples) The screens that the display control unit 16A displays on the display are not limited to the screens illustrated in Figures 5 and 6, and the display control unit 16A may display other screens on the display. The display control unit 16A may, for example, display the prediction results from the consumption prediction unit 12A, the prediction results from the wholesale shipment prediction unit 13A, and the prediction results from the manufacturer shipment prediction unit 14A on the display device for each category related to the sale of the above-mentioned products. Here, examples of categories related to the sale of products include, but are not limited to, product category types (beverages, fresh food, etc.), sales channel types (store sales, direct online sales, sales to specific large customers, etc.), product sales regions, customer types, periods (monthly, weekly, daily, etc.), etc.

[0065] In this case, the display control unit 16A may, as an example, display the demand forecast results for products in the first category (for example, category "drinking water") and the demand forecast results for products in the second category (for example, category "fresh food") on the display on the same time axis.

[0066] (Reception Department) The reception unit 17A receives various instructions or selections from the user. For example, the reception unit 17A receives the instructions or selections from the user terminal 2A by receiving data indicating the user's instructions or selections. The reception unit 17A may also receive instructions or selections entered by the user into the input unit 40A.

[0067] The reception unit 17A specifically accepts user input of correction values ​​for the forecast results of consumer demand, wholesale shipment demand, and manufacturer shipment demand. In this case, the display control unit 16A, as an example, sets the input correction value in the "Intention Input" item in Figure 5.

[0068] (Memory Control Unit) The memory control unit 18A stores both the forecast results for consumer demand, wholesale demand, and manufacturer demand, as well as the correction values ​​received by the reception unit 17A, in the memory unit 20A (storage device). At this time, the memory control unit 18A does not update the demand forecast results with the correction values, but rather manages the demand forecast results and the correction values ​​separately.

[0069] (Detection unit) The detection unit 19A detects abnormal values ​​from the forecast results displayed by the display control unit 16A. If there are significant differences in the demand forecast trends at each stage, it is possible to infer that there was a user input error or that there was a special inventory securing or inventory reduction movement in the market. By detecting and presenting such abnormal values ​​(values ​​that show unusual movement) to the user, it is possible to reduce user operational errors and support early detection of market trends.

[0070] As an example, the detection unit 19A detects as an outlier any predicted or actual value for each unit period that satisfies any of the following conditions (a) to (f). (a) |Consumption forecast year-on-year change r1 - Wholesale shipment forecast year-on-year change r2| > Threshold th 12 (b) | Year-on-year change in wholesale shipment forecast r2 - Year-on-year change in manufacturer shipment forecast r3 | > Threshold th 23 (c)|Consumption forecast year-on-year r1 - Manufacturer shipment forecast year-on-year r3|>threshold th 13 (d) |Year-on-year change in consumption performance r4 - Year-on-year change in wholesale shipment performance r5|>Threshold th 45 (e) | Year-on-year comparison of wholesale shipments r5 - Year-on-year comparison of manufacturer shipments r6 | > Threshold th 56 (f) |Year-on-year change in consumption performance r4 - Year-on-year change in manufacturer shipment performance r6|>Threshold th 46

[0071] Here, year-on-year r1 is the ratio of the forecast consumption for unit period u to the actual consumption for the past unit period corresponding to unit period u (e.g., the same month one year ago). Year-on-year r2 is the ratio of the forecast wholesale shipments for unit period u to the actual wholesale shipments for the past unit period corresponding to unit period u (e.g., the same month one year ago). Year-on-year r3 is the ratio of the forecast manufacturer shipments for unit period u to the actual manufacturer shipments for the past unit period corresponding to unit period u (e.g., the same month one year ago).

[0072] The year-on-year change r4 is the ratio of consumption in unit period u to consumption in the past unit period corresponding to unit period u (e.g., the same month one year ago). The year-on-year change r5 is the ratio of wholesale shipments in unit period u to wholesale shipments in the past unit period corresponding to unit period u (e.g., the same month one year ago). The year-on-year change r6 is the ratio of manufacturer shipments in unit period u to manufacturer shipments in the past unit period corresponding to unit period u (e.g., the same month one year ago). Threshold th 12 ~th threshold th 56 Each of these will be set to, for example, 0.2.

[0073] Of the conditions (a) to (f) described above, conditions (a) to (c) are used to check for user input errors in correction values ​​and for abnormal values. On the other hand, conditions (d) to (f) are used to take into account sudden increases or decreases in market inventory in subsequent demand forecasts.

[0074] When using the conditions (a) to (c) above, in other words, the detection unit 19A can also detect anomalies based on at least one of the following comparison results from the prediction results displayed by the display control unit 16A: (i) the comparison result of the ratio of the predicted consumer demand result to the actual consumer purchases of goods (year-on-year r1) and the ratio of the predicted wholesale shipment demand result to the actual shipments of goods by wholesalers (year-on-year r2); (ii) the comparison result of the ratio of the predicted wholesale shipment demand result to the actual shipments of goods by wholesalers (year-on-year r2) and the ratio of the predicted manufacturer shipment demand result to the actual shipments of goods by manufacturers (year-on-year r3); and (iii) the comparison result of the ratio of the predicted consumer demand result to the actual consumer purchases of goods (year-on-year r1) and the ratio of the predicted manufacturer shipment demand result to the actual shipments of goods by manufacturers (year-on-year r3).

[0075] The display control unit 16A displays the detection results from the detection unit 19A on the display. As an example, the display control unit 16A highlights and displays the abnormal values ​​detected by the detection unit 19A in the demand forecast screen SC11 illustrated in Figure 5. Here, highlighting and displaying abnormal values ​​means, for example, differentiating the display manner of the abnormal value (display color, display size, etc.) from the display manner of other forecast values, or displaying a mark indicating that it is an abnormal value (for example, a rectangular image surrounding the abnormal value).

[0076] (Example of how to handle situations where some performance data could not be retrieved) Here, we will explain an example of how to handle the case when the acquisition unit 11A is unable to acquire some of the actual data. The acquisition unit 11A may be unable to acquire some of the purchase history data, wholesale shipment history data, and manufacturer shipment history data. For example, if data cannot be collected from all retail stores, the acquisition unit 11A can only acquire some of the necessary purchase history data. In such cases where some of the purchase history data, wholesale shipment history data, and manufacturer shipment history data cannot be acquired, the acquisition unit 11A may use the acquired data to estimate the data that could not be acquired. In this case, as an example, the acquisition unit 11A may estimate some of the actual data by performing an expanded estimation process using the acquired actual data.

[0077] In this case, the display control unit 16A may also display the data acquired by the acquisition unit 11A and the data estimated by the acquisition unit 11A on the display in different display modes on the time axis. For example, the display control unit 16A may display the estimated data and the other data in different colors on the display.

[0078] (Effects of information processing equipment) As explained above, the information processing device 1A displays the forecast results for final consumption demand, wholesale shipment demand, and manufacturer shipment demand on the same time axis on the display. Users of the information processing device 1A can easily view and compare demand forecasts at multiple stages (manufacturer shipment stage, wholesale shipment stage, retail sales stage, etc.) on a single screen, thereby enabling more accurate demand forecasting for products.

[0079] Furthermore, the information processing device 1A includes a detection unit 19A that detects abnormal values ​​from the prediction results displayed by the display control unit 16A based on at least one of the following: (i) the ratio of the predicted consumer demand result to the actual consumer purchases of goods and the ratio of the predicted wholesale demand result to the actual shipments of goods by wholesalers; (ii) the ratio of the predicted wholesale demand result to the actual shipments of goods by wholesalers and the ratio of the predicted manufacturer shipments demand to the actual shipments of goods by manufacturers; and (iii) the ratio of the predicted consumer demand result to the actual consumer purchases of goods and the ratio of the predicted manufacturer shipments demand to the actual shipments of goods by manufacturers. The display control unit 16A is configured to display the detection results from the detection unit 19A on a display.

[0080] As mentioned above, if there are significant differences in the demand forecast trends at each stage, it is possible to infer that this is due to user input errors or unusual inventory buildup or reductions in the market. Information processing device 1A can help reduce user operational errors and facilitate early detection of market trends by highlighting anomalies in past performance and future forecasts on the screen. For example, by issuing an alert when there are unusual trends, users can become aware of the situation at an earlier stage.

[0081] Furthermore, the information processing device 1A includes an inventory forecasting unit 15A that uses the forecast results for consumer demand and the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand to forecast the quantity or increase / decrease in retail inventory of a product for each unit period within the forecast period, and the display control unit 16A displays the forecast results from the inventory forecasting unit 15A on a display along a time axis. As a result, with the information processing device 1A, users can make more accurate demand forecasts by taking market inventory into account in addition to the demand forecast results. Thus, the information processing device 1A according to this disclosure enables visualization that shows the balance between final consumption, wholesale shipments, and manufacturer shipments, as well as the trends in market inventory.

[0082] Furthermore, the information processing device 1A includes an inventory forecasting unit 15A that uses the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand and the forecast results for manufacturer shipments to forecast the quantity or increase / decrease in wholesale inventory of the said product for each unit period during the forecast period, and the display control unit 16A displays the forecast results from the inventory forecasting unit 15A on the display along the time axis. As a result, with the information processing device 1A, the user can make more accurate demand forecasts by taking market inventory into account in addition to the demand forecast results. Thus, the information processing device 1A according to this disclosure enables visualization that shows the balance between final consumption, wholesale shipments, and manufacturer shipments, as well as the trends in market inventory.

[0083] Furthermore, in the information processing device 1A, the display control unit 16A is configured to display at least one of the following on the display along a time axis: (i) the ratio of the predicted consumer demand to the actual purchase history of the product by consumers, (ii) the ratio of the predicted wholesale demand to the actual shipment history of the product by wholesalers, and (iii) the ratio of the predicted manufacturer demand to the actual shipment history of the product by manufacturers. Therefore, according to the information processing device 1A, if there are trends in past performance or future forecasts that differ from previous years, the user can identify the areas where the trends in past performance or future forecasts differ from previous years by checking the screen displayed on the display.

[0084] Furthermore, in the information processing device 1A, the display control unit 16A displays the forecast results from the consumption forecasting unit 12A, the forecast results from the wholesale shipment forecasting unit 13A, and the forecast results from the manufacturer shipment forecasting unit 14A on the display for each category related to product sales. Therefore, the information processing device 1A can support more detailed demand forecasting.

[0085] Furthermore, the information processing device 1A includes an acquisition unit 11A that acquires purchase history data, wholesale shipment history data, and manufacturer shipment history data. If some of the purchase history data, wholesale shipment history data, and manufacturer shipment history data cannot be acquired, the acquisition unit 11A estimates the unacquired data using the acquired history data. The display control unit 16A displays the data acquired by the acquisition unit 11A and the estimated data on the display on the time axis in different display modes. By checking the screen in which the collected data and the estimated data are displayed separately, the user can perform demand forecasting with greater accuracy.

[0086] Furthermore, the information processing device 1A employs a configuration that includes a reception unit 17A that receives input of correction values ​​by the user for the forecast results of consumer demand, the forecast results of wholesale shipment demand, and the forecast results of manufacturer shipment demand, and a storage control unit 18A that stores the forecast results of consumer demand, the forecast results of wholesale shipment demand, and the forecast results of manufacturer shipment demand, along with the correction values ​​received by the reception unit 17A, in the storage unit 20A. Rather than updating the demand forecast results from the consumer forecasting unit 12A, the wholesale shipment forecasting unit 13A, and the manufacturer shipment forecasting unit 14A, by managing the demand forecast results and the correction values ​​by the user separately, the user can perform demand forecasting that takes both the demand forecast results and the correction values ​​by the user into consideration, thereby enabling more accurate demand forecasting.

[0087] [Examples of implementation using software] Some or all of the functions of the demand forecasting display device 1 and the information processing device 1A (hereinafter also referred to as "each of the above devices") may be implemented by hardware such as integrated circuits (IC chips) or by software.

[0088] In the latter case, each of the above devices is implemented, for example, by a computer that executes instructions for a program, which is software that realizes each function. An example of such a computer (hereinafter referred to as Computer C) is shown in Figure 7. Figure 7 is a block diagram showing the hardware configuration of Computer C, which functions as each of the above devices.

[0089] Computer C comprises at least one processor C1 and at least one memory C2. Memory C2 stores a program P that causes computer C to operate as each of the above-mentioned devices. In computer C, processor C1 reads program P from memory C2 and executes it, thereby realizing each of the above-mentioned devices.

[0090] For processor C1, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit), GPU (Graphic Processing Unit), DSP (Digital Signal Processor), MPU (Micro Processing Unit), FPU (Floating Point Number Processing Unit), PPU (Physics Processing Unit), TPU (Tensor Processing Unit), quantum processor, microcontroller, or a combination thereof can be used. For memory C2, for example, flash memory, HDD (Hard Disk Drive), SSD (Solid State Drive), or a combination thereof can be used.

[0091] Computer C may also be equipped with RAM (Random Access Memory) for loading program P at runtime and for temporarily storing various data. Furthermore, computer C may be equipped with communication interfaces for sending and receiving data with other devices. Additionally, computer C may be equipped with input / output interfaces for connecting input / output devices such as keyboards, mice, displays, and printers.

[0092] Furthermore, program P can be recorded on a non-temporary, tangible recording medium M that is readable by computer C. Such a recording medium M could be, for example, tape, disk, card, semiconductor memory, or programmable logic circuitry. Computer C can acquire program P via such a recording medium M. Program P can also be transmitted via a transmission medium. Such a transmission medium could be, for example, a communication network or broadcast waves. Computer C can also acquire program P via such a transmission medium.

[0093] Furthermore, each of the above functions of each of the above devices may be implemented by a single processor in a single computer, by multiple processors in a single computer working together, or by multiple processors in each of multiple computers working together. In addition, the programs for implementing each of the above functions in each of the above devices may be stored in a single memory in a single computer, distributed and stored in multiple memories in a single computer, or distributed and stored in multiple memories in each of multiple computers.

[0094] [Additional Note A] This disclosure includes the technologies described in the following appendices. However, the present invention is not limited to the technologies described in the following appendices, and various modifications are possible within the scope of the claims. (Note A1) A consumption forecasting means that uses purchase history data showing the actual purchase history of products by consumers to predict the demand for the product for each unit period during the forecast period, A wholesale shipment forecasting means that uses wholesale shipment performance data showing the actual shipment performance of the said product by wholesalers to predict the demand for wholesale shipments of the said product for each unit period during the forecast period, A manufacturer shipment forecasting means that uses manufacturer shipment performance data showing the actual shipment performance of the said products by the manufacturer to predict the demand for manufacturer shipments for each unit period during the forecast target period, A display control means that displays the predicted consumer demand results for each unit period within the forecast period, the predicted wholesale shipment demand results, and the predicted manufacturer shipment demand results on a common time axis on a display device, A demand forecasting display device equipped with the following features.

[0095] (Appendix A2) (i) A comparison of the ratio of the predicted consumer demand to the actual consumer purchases of the product and the ratio of the predicted wholesale demand to the actual wholesale shipments of the product by the wholesaler, (ii) A comparison of the ratio of the predicted demand for wholesale shipments to the actual shipments of the said product by the said wholesaler and the ratio of the predicted demand for manufacturer shipments to the actual shipments of the said product by the said manufacturer, and (iii) A comparison of the ratio of the predicted consumer demand to the actual consumer purchases of the product and the ratio of the predicted manufacturer demand to the actual manufacturer shipments of the product, The system further comprises a detection means for detecting an abnormal value from the prediction result displayed by the display control means based on at least one of the following, The display control means displays the detection result by the detection means on the display device. The demand forecasting display device described in Appendix A1.

[0096] (Note A3) The system further comprises inventory forecasting means, which uses the forecast results for consumer demand and the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand to forecast the quantity or increase / decrease in retail inventory of the product for each unit period during the forecast period, The display control means displays the forecast results from the inventory forecasting means on the time axis on the display device. A demand forecasting display device as described in Appendix A1 or A2.

[0097] (Note A4) The system further comprises inventory forecasting means, which uses the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand and the forecast results for manufacturer shipments to forecast the quantity or increase / decrease in wholesale inventory of the product for each unit period during the forecast period, The display control means displays the forecast results from the inventory forecasting means on the time axis on the display device. A demand forecasting display device as described in one of the appendices A1 to A3.

[0098] (Note A5) The display control means displays on the display device, on the time axis, at least one of the following: (i) the ratio of the predicted consumer demand to the actual consumer purchases of the product; (ii) the ratio of the predicted wholesale demand to the actual wholesale shipments of the product; and (iii) the ratio of the predicted manufacturer demand to the actual shipments of the product by the manufacturer. A demand forecasting display device as described in one of the appendices A1 through A4.

[0099] (Note A6) The display control means displays the prediction results from the consumption prediction means, the prediction results from the wholesale shipment prediction means, and the prediction results from the manufacturer shipment prediction means on the display device for each category related to the sale of the product. A demand forecasting display device as described in one of the appendices A1 through A5.

[0100] (Note A7) An acquisition means for acquiring the aforementioned purchase history data, the aforementioned wholesale shipment history data, and the aforementioned manufacturer shipment history data, If the acquisition means is unable to acquire a portion of the purchase history data, the wholesale shipment history data, and the manufacturer shipment history data, the estimation means uses the data acquired by the acquisition means to estimate the data that the acquisition means could not acquire. Furthermore, The display control means is The data acquired by the acquisition means and the data estimated by the estimation means are displayed on the display device on the time axis in different display modes. A demand forecasting display device as described in one of the appendices A1 through A6.

[0101] (Note A8) A receiving means for receiving user input of correction values ​​for the aforementioned consumer demand forecast results, wholesale shipment demand forecast results, and manufacturer shipment demand forecast results, The system further comprises a storage control means that stores the forecast results for consumer demand, the forecast results for wholesale shipments, and the forecast results for manufacturer shipments, along with the correction values ​​received by the receiving means, in a storage device. A demand forecasting display device as described in one of the appendices A1 through A7.

[0102] (Note A9) The display control means is The prediction results from the consumption prediction means, the prediction results from the wholesale shipment prediction means, and the prediction results from the manufacturer shipment prediction means are displayed on the time axis on the display device in the first display mode, The purchase performance shown in the purchase performance data, the shipment performance shown in the wholesale shipment performance data, and the shipment performance shown in the manufacturer shipment performance data are displayed on the time axis on the display device in a second display mode. A demand forecasting display device as described in one of the appendices A1 through A8.

[0103] [Additional Note B] This disclosure includes the technologies described in the following appendices. However, the present invention is not limited to the technologies described in the following appendices, and various modifications are possible within the scope of the claims. (Note B1) At least one processor performs a consumption forecasting process that uses purchase history data showing the consumer's purchase history of the product to forecast the consumer's demand for the product for each unit period during the forecast period, The at least one processor performs wholesale shipment forecasting, which uses wholesale shipment performance data showing the actual shipment performance of the goods by wholesalers to forecast the demand for wholesale shipments of the goods for each unit period during the forecast period, The at least one processor performs manufacturer shipment forecasting processing, which uses manufacturer shipment data showing the actual shipment performance of the product by the manufacturer to forecast the demand for manufacturer shipments for each unit period during the forecast period, The at least one processor performs a display control process that displays the predicted consumer demand for each unit period within the forecast period, the predicted wholesale demand, and the predicted manufacturer demand on a common time axis on a display device. A method for displaying demand forecasts, including the following:

[0104] (Note B2) The aforementioned at least one processor, (i) A comparison of the ratio of the predicted consumer demand to the actual consumer purchases of the product and the ratio of the predicted wholesale demand to the actual wholesale shipments of the product by the wholesaler, (ii) A comparison of the ratio of the predicted demand for wholesale shipments to the actual shipments of the said product by the said wholesaler and the ratio of the predicted demand for manufacturer shipments to the actual shipments of the said product by the said manufacturer, and (iii) A comparison of the ratio of the predicted consumer demand to the actual consumer purchases of the product and the ratio of the predicted manufacturer demand to the actual manufacturer shipments of the product, The process further includes a detection process that detects an abnormal value from the prediction result displayed by the display control process based on at least one of the following: In the display control process, the at least one processor displays the detection result obtained by the detection process on the display device. The method for displaying demand forecasts as described in Appendix B1.

[0105] (Note B3) The at least one processor further includes an inventory forecasting process that uses the forecast results for consumer demand and the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand to forecast the quantity or increase / decrease in retail inventory of the product for each unit period during the forecast period, In the display control process, the at least one processor displays the forecast result from the inventory forecasting process on the time axis on the display device. The method for displaying demand forecasts as described in Appendix B1 or B2.

[0106] (Note B4) The at least one processor further includes an inventory forecasting process that uses the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand and the forecast results for manufacturer shipments to forecast the quantity or increase / decrease in wholesale inventory of the product for each unit period during the forecast period, In the display control process, the at least one processor displays the forecast result from the inventory forecasting process on the time axis on the display device. The method for displaying demand forecasts as described in one of the appendices B1 to B3.

[0107] (Note B5) In the display control process, the at least one processor displays on the display device on the time axis at least one of the following: (i) the ratio of the predicted consumer demand to the actual consumer purchases of the product; (ii) the ratio of the predicted wholesale demand to the actual wholesale shipments of the product; and (iii) the ratio of the predicted manufacturer shipments to the actual shipments of the product by the manufacturer. The method for displaying demand forecasts as described in one of the appendices B1 to B4.

[0108] (Note B6) In the display control process, the at least one processor displays the prediction results from the consumption prediction process, the prediction results from the wholesale shipment prediction process, and the prediction results from the manufacturer shipment prediction process on the display device for each category related to the sale of the product. The method for displaying demand forecasts is described in one of the appendices B1 through B5.

[0109] (Note B7) The at least one processor performs an acquisition process to acquire the purchase history data, the wholesale shipment history data, and the manufacturer shipment history data, If at least one processor fails to acquire a portion of the purchase history data, wholesale shipment history data, and manufacturer shipment history data in the acquisition process, it performs an estimation process that estimates the data that could not be acquired in the acquisition process using the data acquired in the acquisition process. It further includes, In the display control process, the at least one processor, The data acquired in the acquisition process and the data estimated in the estimation process are displayed on the display device on the time axis in different display modes. The method for displaying the demand forecast, as described in one of the appendices B1 through B6.

[0110] (Note B8) The at least one processor includes a reception process that accepts user input of correction values ​​for the consumer demand forecast results, the wholesale shipment demand forecast results, and the manufacturer shipment demand forecast results, The at least one processor further includes a storage control process that stores the forecast results for consumer demand, the forecast results for wholesale shipments, and the forecast results for manufacturer shipments, along with the correction values ​​received in the reception process, in a storage device. The method for displaying demand forecasts as described in one of the appendices B1 through B7.

[0111] (Note B9) In the display control process, the at least one processor, The prediction results from the consumption forecasting process, the prediction results from the wholesale shipment forecasting process, and the prediction results from the manufacturer shipment forecasting process are displayed on the time axis on the display device in the first display mode, The purchase performance shown in the purchase performance data, the shipment performance shown in the wholesale shipment performance data, and the shipment performance shown in the manufacturer shipment performance data are displayed on the time axis on the display device in a second display mode. The method for displaying demand forecasts described in one of the appendices B1 through B8.

[0112] [Additional Note C] This disclosure includes the technologies described in the following appendices. However, the present invention is not limited to the technologies described in the following appendices, and various modifications are possible within the scope of the claims. (Note C1) A program that makes a computer function as a demand forecasting display device, The aforementioned computer, A consumption forecasting means that uses purchase history data showing the actual purchase history of products by consumers to predict the demand for the product for each unit period during the forecast period, A wholesale shipment forecasting means that uses wholesale shipment performance data showing the actual shipment performance of the said product by wholesalers to predict the demand for wholesale shipments of the said product for each unit period during the forecast period, A manufacturer shipment forecasting means that uses manufacturer shipment performance data showing the actual shipment performance of the said products by the manufacturer to predict the demand for manufacturer shipments for each unit period during the forecast target period, A display control means that displays the predicted consumer demand results for each unit period within the forecast period, the predicted wholesale shipment demand results, and the predicted manufacturer shipment demand results on a common time axis on a display device, A demand forecast display program that functions as such.

[0113] (Note C2) (i) A comparison of the ratio of the predicted consumer demand to the actual consumer purchases of the product and the ratio of the predicted wholesale demand to the actual wholesale shipments of the product by the wholesaler, (ii) A comparison of the ratio of the predicted demand for wholesale shipments to the actual shipments of the said product by the said wholesaler and the ratio of the predicted demand for manufacturer shipments to the actual shipments of the said product by the said manufacturer, and (iii) A comparison of the ratio of the predicted consumer demand to the actual consumer purchases of the product and the ratio of the predicted manufacturer demand to the actual manufacturer shipments of the product, The aforementioned computer, Based on at least one of the above, the detection means further functions as a means for detecting abnormal values ​​from the prediction results displayed by the display control means, The display control means displays the detection result by the detection means on the display device. The demand forecast display program described in Appendix C1.

[0114] (Note C3) The aforementioned computer, The inventory forecasting means further functions as an inventory forecasting means that uses the forecast results for consumer demand and the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand to predict the quantity or increase / decrease in retail inventory of the product for each unit period during the forecast period. The display control means displays the forecast results from the inventory forecasting means on the time axis on the display device. The demand forecast display program described in Appendix C1 or C2.

[0115] (Note C4) The aforementioned computer, The inventory forecasting means further functions as an inventory forecasting means that uses the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand and the forecast results for manufacturer shipment to predict the quantity or increase / decrease in wholesale inventory of the said product for each unit period during the forecast period. The display control means displays the forecast results from the inventory forecasting means on the time axis on the display device. A demand forecast display program described in any one of the appendices C1 to C3.

[0116] (Note C5) The display control means displays on the display device, on the time axis, at least one of the following: (i) the ratio of the predicted consumer demand to the actual consumer purchases of the product; (ii) the ratio of the predicted wholesale demand to the actual wholesale shipments of the product; and (iii) the ratio of the predicted manufacturer demand to the actual shipments of the product by the manufacturer. A demand forecast display program described in any one of the appendices C1 to C4.

[0117] (Appendix C6) The display control means displays the prediction results from the consumption prediction means, the prediction results from the wholesale shipment prediction means, and the prediction results from the manufacturer shipment prediction means on the display device for each category related to the sale of the product. A demand forecast display program described in any one of the appendices C1 to C5.

[0118] (Note C7) An acquisition means for acquiring the aforementioned purchase history data, the aforementioned wholesale shipment history data, and the aforementioned manufacturer shipment history data, The aforementioned computer, If the acquisition means is unable to acquire a portion of the purchase history data, the wholesale shipment history data, and the manufacturer shipment history data, the estimation means uses the data acquired by the acquisition means to estimate the data that the acquisition means could not acquire. To make it function even better, The display control means is The data acquired by the acquisition means and the data estimated by the estimation means are displayed on the display device on the time axis in different display modes. A demand forecast display program described in any one of the appendices C1 to C6.

[0119] (Note C8) A receiving means for receiving user input of correction values ​​for the aforementioned consumer demand forecast results, wholesale shipment demand forecast results, and manufacturer shipment demand forecast results, The aforementioned computer, The memory control means further functions as a storage control means that stores the predicted consumer demand, the predicted wholesale demand, and the predicted manufacturer demand, along with the correction value received by the receiving means, in a storage device. A demand forecast display program described in any one of the appendices C1 to C7.

[0120] (Note C9) The display control means is The prediction results from the consumption prediction means, the prediction results from the wholesale shipment prediction means, and the prediction results from the manufacturer shipment prediction means are displayed on the time axis on the display device in the first display mode, The purchase performance shown in the purchase performance data, the shipment performance shown in the wholesale shipment performance data, and the shipment performance shown in the manufacturer shipment performance data are displayed on the time axis on the display device in a second display mode. A demand forecast display program described in one of the appendices C1 through C8.

[0121] [Additional Note D] This disclosure includes the technologies described in the following appendices. However, the present invention is not limited to the technologies described in the following appendices, and various modifications are possible within the scope of the claims. (Note D1) It comprises at least one processor, and the at least one processor is A consumption forecasting process that uses purchase history data showing consumers' past purchases of products to predict consumer demand for the product for each unit period during the forecast period, A wholesale shipment forecasting process that uses wholesale shipment performance data showing the actual shipment performance of the said product by wholesalers to forecast the demand for wholesale shipments of the said product for each unit period during the forecast period, A manufacturer shipment forecasting process that uses manufacturer shipment performance data showing the actual shipment performance of the aforementioned products by the manufacturer to forecast the demand for manufacturer shipments for each unit period during the forecast period, A display control process that displays the predicted consumer demand results for each unit period within the forecast period, the predicted wholesale shipment demand results, and the predicted manufacturer shipment demand results on a common time axis on a display device. A demand forecasting display device that performs this operation. The demand forecasting display device may also include memory. Furthermore, the memory may store a program for causing at least one processor to perform each of the aforementioned processes.

[0122] (Note D2) The aforementioned at least one processor, (i) A comparison of the ratio of the predicted consumer demand to the actual consumer purchases of the product and the ratio of the predicted wholesale demand to the actual wholesale shipments of the product by the wholesaler, (ii) A comparison of the ratio of the predicted demand for wholesale shipments to the actual shipments of the said product by the said wholesaler and the ratio of the predicted demand for manufacturer shipments to the actual shipments of the said product by the said manufacturer, and (iii) A comparison of the ratio of the predicted consumer demand to the actual consumer purchases of the product and the ratio of the predicted manufacturer demand to the actual manufacturer shipments of the product, A detection process is further executed in which an abnormal value is detected from the prediction result displayed in the display control process based on at least one of the following: In the display control process, the at least one processor displays the detection result obtained by the detection process on the display device. The demand forecasting display device described in Appendix D1.

[0123] (Note D3) The aforementioned at least one processor, Further inventory forecasting is performed, which uses the forecast results for consumer demand and the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand to forecast the quantity or increase / decrease in retail inventory of the product for each unit period during the forecast period. In the display control process, the at least one processor displays the forecast result from the inventory forecasting process on the time axis on the display device. A demand forecasting display device as described in Appendix D1 or D2.

[0124] (Note D4) The aforementioned at least one processor, Further inventory forecasting is performed, which uses the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand and the forecast results for manufacturer shipment to predict the quantity or increase / decrease in wholesale inventory of the product for each unit period during the forecast period. In the display control process, the at least one processor displays the forecast result from the inventory forecasting process on the time axis on the display device. A demand forecasting display device as described in one of the appendices D1 to D3.

[0125] (Note D5) In the display control process, the at least one processor displays on the display device on the time axis at least one of the following: (i) the ratio of the predicted consumer demand to the actual consumer purchases of the product; (ii) the ratio of the predicted wholesale demand to the actual wholesale shipments of the product; and (iii) the ratio of the predicted manufacturer shipments to the actual shipments of the product by the manufacturer. A demand forecasting display device as described in one of the appendices D1 to D4.

[0126] (Note D6) In the display control process, the at least one processor displays the prediction results from the consumption prediction process, the prediction results from the wholesale shipment prediction process, and the prediction results from the manufacturer shipment prediction process on the display device for each category related to the sale of the product. A demand forecasting display device as described in one of the appendices D1 to D5.

[0127] (Note D7) The aforementioned at least one processor, The acquisition process involves acquiring the aforementioned purchase history data, the aforementioned wholesale shipment history data, and the aforementioned manufacturer shipment history data. If, in the acquisition process, a portion of the purchase history data, wholesale shipment history data, and manufacturer shipment history data could not be acquired, an estimation process is performed to estimate the data that could not be acquired in the acquisition process using the data acquired in the acquisition process. Further execution, In the display control process, the at least one processor, The data acquired in the acquisition process and the data estimated in the estimation process are displayed on the display device on the time axis in different display modes. A demand forecasting display device as described in one of the appendices D1 to D6.

[0128] (Note D8) The aforementioned at least one processor, A reception process that accepts user input of correction values ​​for the forecast results of consumer demand, the forecast results of wholesale shipment demand, and the forecast results of manufacturer shipment demand, Further, a storage control process is performed which stores the forecast results for consumer demand, the forecast results for wholesale shipments, and the forecast results for manufacturer shipments, along with the correction values ​​received in the acceptance process, in a storage device. A demand forecasting display device as described in one of the appendices D1 to D7.

[0129] (Note D9) In the display control process, the at least one processor, The prediction results from the consumption forecasting process, the prediction results from the wholesale shipment forecasting process, and the prediction results from the manufacturer shipment forecasting process are displayed on the time axis on the display device in the first display mode, The purchase performance shown in the purchase performance data, the shipment performance shown in the wholesale shipment performance data, and the shipment performance shown in the manufacturer shipment performance data are displayed on the time axis on the display device in a second display mode. A demand forecasting display device as described in one of the appendices D1 through D8.

[0130] [Additional Note E] This disclosure includes the technologies described in the following appendices. However, the present invention is not limited to the technologies described in the following appendices, and various modifications are possible within the scope of the claims. (Note E1) A program to make a computer function as a demand forecasting display device, To the aforementioned computer, A consumption forecasting process that uses purchase history data showing consumers' past purchases of products to predict consumer demand for the product for each unit period during the forecast period, A wholesale shipment forecasting process that uses wholesale shipment performance data showing the actual shipment performance of the said product by wholesalers to forecast the demand for wholesale shipments of the said product for each unit period during the forecast period, A manufacturer shipment forecasting process that uses manufacturer shipment performance data showing the actual shipment performance of the aforementioned products by the manufacturer to forecast the demand for manufacturer shipments for each unit period during the forecast period, A display control process that displays the predicted consumer demand results for each unit period within the forecast period, the predicted wholesale shipment demand results, and the predicted manufacturer shipment demand results on a common time axis on a display device. A non-temporary recording medium containing a demand forecast display program for executing the program. [Explanation of symbols]

[0131] 1. Demand forecasting display device 1A Information Processing Device 11, 12A Consumption forecasting section 11A Acquisition Department 12, 13A Wholesale Shipment Forecasting Department 13, 14A Manufacturer Shipment Forecast Department 14, 16A Display Control Unit 15A Inventory Forecasting Department 17A Reception Desk 18A Memory Control Unit 19A Detection Unit

Claims

1. A consumption forecasting means that uses purchase history data showing the actual purchase history of products by consumers to predict the demand for the product for each unit period during the forecast period, A wholesale shipment forecasting means that uses wholesale shipment performance data showing the actual shipment performance of the said product by wholesalers to predict the demand for wholesale shipments of the said product for each unit period during the forecast period, A manufacturer shipment forecasting means that uses manufacturer shipment performance data showing the actual shipment performance of the said products by the manufacturer to predict the demand for manufacturer shipments for each unit period during the forecast target period, A display control means that displays the predicted consumer demand results for each unit period within the forecast period, the predicted wholesale shipment demand results, and the predicted manufacturer shipment demand results on a common time axis on a display device, A demand forecasting display device equipped with the following features.

2. (i) A comparison of the ratio of the predicted consumer demand to the actual consumer purchases of the product and the ratio of the predicted wholesale demand to the actual wholesale shipments of the product by the wholesalers, (ii) A comparison of the ratio of the predicted demand for wholesale shipments to the actual shipments of the said product by the said wholesaler and the ratio of the predicted demand for manufacturer shipments to the actual shipments of the said product by the said manufacturer, and (iii) A comparison of the ratio of the predicted consumer demand to the actual consumer purchases of the product and the ratio of the predicted manufacturer demand to the actual manufacturer shipments of the product, The system further comprises a detection means for detecting an abnormal value from the prediction result displayed by the display control means based on at least one of the following, The display control means displays the detection result by the detection means on the display device. The demand forecasting display device according to claim 1.

3. The system further comprises inventory forecasting means, which uses the forecast results for consumer demand and the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand to forecast the quantity or increase / decrease in retail inventory of the product for each unit period during the forecast period, The display control means displays the forecast results from the inventory forecasting means on the time axis on the display device. A demand forecasting display device according to claim 1 or 2.

4. The system further comprises inventory forecasting means, which uses the forecast results for wholesale shipment demand and the forecast results for manufacturer shipments to forecast the quantity or increase / decrease in wholesale inventory of the product for each unit period during the forecast period, The display control means displays the forecast results from the inventory forecasting means on the time axis on the display device. A demand forecasting display device according to claim 1 or 2.

5. The display control means displays on the display device, on the time axis, at least one of the following: (i) the ratio of the predicted consumer demand to the actual consumer purchases of the product; (ii) the ratio of the predicted wholesale demand to the actual wholesale shipments of the product; and (iii) the ratio of the predicted manufacturer demand to the actual shipments of the product by the manufacturer. A demand forecasting display device according to claim 1 or 2.

6. The display control means displays the prediction results from the consumption prediction means, the prediction results from the wholesale shipment prediction means, and the prediction results from the manufacturer shipment prediction means on the display device for each category related to the sale of the product. A demand forecasting display device according to claim 1 or 2.

7. An acquisition means for acquiring the aforementioned purchase history data, the aforementioned wholesale shipment history data, and the aforementioned manufacturer shipment history data, If the acquisition means is unable to acquire a portion of the purchase history data, the wholesale shipment history data, and the manufacturer shipment history data, the estimation means uses the data acquired by the acquisition means to estimate the data that the acquisition means could not acquire. Furthermore, The display control means is The data acquired by the acquisition means and the data estimated by the estimation means are displayed on the display device on the time axis in different display modes. A demand forecasting display device according to claim 1 or 2.

8. A receiving means for receiving user input of correction values ​​for the aforementioned consumer demand forecast results, wholesale shipment demand forecast results, and manufacturer shipment demand forecast results, The system further comprises a storage control means that stores the forecast results for consumer demand, the forecast results for wholesale shipments, and the forecast results for manufacturer shipments, along with the correction values ​​received by the receiving means, in a storage device. A demand forecasting display device according to claim 1 or 2.

9. At least one processor performs a consumption forecasting process that uses purchase history data showing the consumer's purchase history of the product to forecast the consumer's demand for the product for each unit period during the forecast period, The at least one processor performs wholesale shipment forecasting processing, which uses wholesale shipment performance data showing the actual shipment performance of the goods by wholesalers to forecast the demand for wholesale shipments of the goods for each unit period during the forecast period, The at least one processor performs manufacturer shipment forecasting processing, which uses manufacturer shipment data showing the actual shipment performance of the product by the manufacturer to forecast the demand for manufacturer shipments for each unit period during the forecast period, The at least one processor performs a display control process that displays the predicted consumer demand for each unit period within the forecast period, the predicted wholesale demand, and the predicted manufacturer demand on a common time axis on a display device. A method for displaying demand forecasts, including the following:

10. A demand forecast display program for causing a computer to function as a demand forecast display device, wherein the computer, A consumption forecasting means that uses purchase history data showing the actual purchase history of products by consumers to predict the demand for the product for each unit period during the forecast period, A wholesale shipment forecasting means that uses wholesale shipment performance data showing the actual shipment performance of the said product by wholesalers to predict the demand for wholesale shipments of the said product for each unit period during the forecast period, A manufacturer shipment forecasting means that uses manufacturer shipment performance data showing the actual shipment performance of the said products by the manufacturer to predict the demand for manufacturer shipments for each unit period during the forecast target period, A display control means that displays the predicted consumer demand results for each unit period within the forecast period, the predicted wholesale shipment demand results, and the predicted manufacturer shipment demand results on a common time axis on a display device, A demand forecast display program designed to function as such.

Images