Timetable change support system, transportation system, and timetable change support method

Abstract

To provide a diagram change supporting system which carries out the minimum and required diagram change while corresponding to the demand of passenger movements.SOLUTION: A diagram change necessity determination unit 110 comprises a ride connecting failure position estimation unit 130, a different route search unit 150 and an evaluation unit 140. Based on ride connecting failure position information of the ride connecting failure position estimation unit 130 and a detection result of the different route search unit 150, the evaluation unit 140 determines whether or not the departing time at a connecting station of a preceding vehicle needs to be changed and when the departing time needs to be changed, proposal information of the departing time change is renewed.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 4

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a schedule change support system, a transportation system, and a schedule change support method. [Background technology]

[0002] Public transport services, such as rail transport services, make daily schedule changes to their operation plans in response to changes in circumstances, such as operational disruptions and fluctuations in passenger demand. For example, when a train is late in arriving and cannot connect with other trains, the departure time of the connected train may be adjusted to ensure a connection between the connecting train and the connected train. Determining whether such schedule changes are necessary is a highly advanced task that requires rationality, and requires a considerable amount of effort and time.

[0003] Patent Document 1 discloses a technology that can smoothly adjust vehicle operation schedules between each line and each company when connecting with other lines. According to Patent Document 1, first, operation information on each of the first and second vehicles is obtained from a first operation control system that manages the first vehicle and a second operation control system that manages the second vehicle, respectively, and a predicted arrival time of each vehicle at each station is calculated from the operation information on each vehicle. Whether or not it is necessary to change the departure time of the connected vehicle is determined based on the calculation results of the predicted arrival time of each vehicle at each station and performance data on past transfers. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] JP 2011-255766 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] According to the technology disclosed in Patent Document 1, it is possible to rationally determine whether or not a change to the schedule is necessary based on whether or not transfer times are secured at connecting stations and the number of transferring passengers.

[0006] However, in Patent Document 1, the destination station of the passenger is not taken into consideration. For example, there are cases where a passenger can reach the destination station by a route different from the route originally intended by the passenger. Unnecessary schedule changes lead to increased costs for transportation operators and reduced passenger satisfaction. For this reason, it is desirable not to change the schedule if passenger convenience is not significantly affected even if connections are not ensured.

[0007] In order to make the minimum necessary changes to the schedule while responding to passenger travel demand, it is necessary to obtain information on the routes originally intended by passengers transferring between cars, and to determine whether or not changes to the schedule are necessary based on the number of transferring passengers for whom there is no alternative route that can reach their destination station.

[0008] An object of the present invention is to make the minimum necessary schedule changes in a schedule change support system while responding to passenger travel demand. [Means for solving the problem]

[0009] A timetable change support system according to one aspect of the present invention is a timetable change support system having a processing unit and a storage unit, the storage unit storing operation plan information and vehicle position information, vehicleand travel demand forecast information including a departure station of passengers who use each station where a train stops, an arrival time at the departure station, a destination station, and a first route from the departure station to the destination station. The processing unit has a timetable change necessity determination unit that determines whether a change in timetable is necessary, and the timetable change necessity determination unit has an operation status prediction unit that estimates a predicted arrival time of each vehicle at each station based on the vehicle position information and generates predicted timetable information, and a station where a connection cannot be ensured due to a delayed arrival of the vehicle, based on the predicted timetable information and transfer information including two vehicles where the passengers are expected to transfer and connecting stations. The system includes a transfer failure point estimation unit that estimates a transfer failure point defined by a connecting vehicle and a connecting vehicle; an alternative route search unit that searches for a second route to the destination station by transferring to a vehicle other than the vehicle to which the first route is expected to be transferred when using the first route, at a station where the connection cannot be secured, based on line network information representing connections between stations and the predicted timetable information; and an evaluation unit that determines whether or not it is necessary to change the departure time of the connecting vehicle at the connecting station, based on the transfer failure point information and the search results of the alternative route search unit. Effect of the Invention

[0010] According to one aspect of the present invention, a schedule change support system can make the minimum necessary schedule changes while responding to passenger travel demand. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0011] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of a transportation system configuration. [Diagram 2] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of a transportation system 10. [Diagram 3] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a schematic hardware configuration of the schedule change support system of FIG. 2. [Figure 4] FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram of a schedule change support system according to a first embodiment. [Diagram 5] FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of predicted timetable information. [Figure 6] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of transfer information. [Figure 7] FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of information on failed connections. [Figure 8] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of travel demand forecast information. [Figure 9] FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of departure time change proposal information. [Figure 10] 5 is a flowchart for explaining a schedule change necessity determination process performed by a schedule change necessity determination unit in FIG. 4. [Figure 11] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of the result of the determination of whether or not a schedule change is necessary being displayed on the output unit. [Figure 12] 11 is a flowchart for explaining in detail an evaluation value calculation process out of the schedule change necessity determination process shown in FIG. 10 . [Figure 13] 13 is a flowchart for explaining in detail another route search processing of the evaluation value calculation processing shown in FIG. 12. [Figure 14] FIG. 11 is a functional block diagram of a schedule change support system according to a second embodiment. [Figure 15] FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of passenger point information. [Figure 16] 15 is a flowchart for explaining a schedule change necessity determination process performed by a schedule change necessity determination unit in FIG. 14 . [Figure 17] 17 is a flowchart for explaining in detail the passenger point information update process of the schedule change necessity determination process shown in FIG. 16. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0012] Hereinafter, an embodiment of a schedule change support system according to the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. EXAMPLES

[0013] An example of a transport facility configuration will be described with reference to FIG.

[0014] The transportation facility 1 is composed of multiple stations A to H and vehicles 1 to 4 that stop at stations A to H. In this specification, a "station" refers to a location where passengers can get on and off. The vehicles 1 to 4 are vehicles on which multiple users travel together, and the operation plan and operation status are managed by a traffic management system (FIG. 2) described later.

[0015] Vehicles 1-4 are, for example, trains, buses, ships, airplanes, etc. Here, it is assumed that the operation plans and operation statuses of vehicles 1-4 are managed by different operation control systems, but the operation plans and operation statuses may be managed by the same operation control system. Vehicle 1 is a vehicle that runs on route R1, and runs in the order of Station A → Station D → Station E. Vehicles 2 and 4 are vehicles that run on route R2, and run in the order of Station B → Station D → Station F → Station H. Vehicle 3 is a vehicle that runs on route R3, and runs in the order of Station C → Station D → Station G → Station H.

[0016] Station D is a station on line R1, line R2 and line R3. R1 Passengers of a vehicle traveling on line R2 can transfer to a vehicle traveling on line R2 or line R3 at station D. Passengers of a vehicle traveling on line R2 can transfer to a vehicle traveling on line R1 or line R3 at station D. Passengers of a vehicle traveling on line R3 can transfer to a vehicle traveling on line R1 or line R2 at station D. In this specification, a station used when transferring from a vehicle traveling on one line to a vehicle traveling on another line, such as station D, is described as a connecting station. The connecting station may be a different station installed in a different building or a station with a different platform installed in the same premises.

[0017] Example 1 is a case in which vehicles 1 to 4 stop at station D, and the arrival time of vehicle 1 at station D and the departure time of vehicle 2 at station D are set in the operation plan so that transfer from vehicle 1 to vehicle 2 is possible, and a connection from vehicle 1 to vehicle 2 cannot be secured due to a delay in vehicle 1, and a determination is made as to whether or not it is necessary to change the departure time of vehicle 2 from station D based on the number of passengers transferring from vehicle 1 to vehicle 2 who are unable to reach their destination station via a route different from the originally intended route.

[0018] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of the transportation system 10. As shown in FIG.

[0019] Transportation System 10 is configured with a timetable change support system 100, a ticketing system 200, a traffic management system 300, a traffic management system 400, and a traffic management system 500. The timetable change support system 100, the ticketing system 200, the traffic management system 300, the traffic management system 400, and the traffic management system 500 are connected by lines not shown.

[0020] The schedule change support system 100 acquires vehicle operation plans and vehicle travel positions obtained from the traffic management systems 300, 400, and 500. In addition, the schedule change support system 100 acquires information on travel demand (e.g., who is planning to travel, when, from where to where) from the ticketing system 200.

[0021] Traffic management system 300 manages the operation plan and operation status of vehicle 1. Additionally, traffic management system 400 manages the operation plans and operation status of vehicles 2 and 4. Additionally, traffic management system 500 manages the operation plan and operation status of vehicle 3. Since known techniques may be used for the management of the operation plan and operation status of each vehicle by each traffic management system, a description thereof will be omitted here.

[0022] The ticketing system 200 is a system that allows passengers using the transportation facility 1 to pay an appropriate fare for using the transportation facility 1. The ticketing system 200 is, for example, a server computer, and performs information exchange with the mobile terminal 201 and fare payment processing via a line not shown. The mobile terminal 201 is a portable computer operated by a passenger using the transportation facility 1, such as a mobile phone, smartphone, tablet computer, or notebook computer. Since publicly known technology may be used for the transmission and reception of various information between the mobile terminal 201 and the ticketing system 200, and for fare payment by the ticketing system 200, a description thereof will be omitted here.

[0023] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a schematic hardware configuration of the schedule change support system 100.

[0024] The schedule change support system 100 is, for example, a personal computer or a server computer. As shown in Fig. 3, the schedule change support system includes an input unit 101, an output unit 102, a communication unit 103, a storage unit 104, and a processing unit 105, which are connected to each other by a bus B.

[0025] The input unit 101 is, for example, a keyboard and a mouse, and is an interface through which a user inputs operations related to the schedule change support system. The output unit 102 is, for example, a display device, and is an interface that displays information related to the schedule change support system.

[0026] The communication unit 103 is connected to a communication line (not shown) and communicates with the ticketing system 200, the operation control systems 300, 400, and 500, and schedule changes. support It is an interface for transmitting and receiving various information to and from the system. Thus, the communication unit 103 is composed of a transmitting unit and a receiving unit.

[0027] The storage unit 104 is configured, for example, by a hard disk device, and stores programs and data related to the schedule change support system 100 in a non-volatile manner. The processing unit 105 has, for example, a processor configured by a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and a RAM (Random Access Memory) used as a working area for the processor. The processing unit 105 performs various information processing by the processor executing various processing programs stored in the storage unit 104.

[0028] FIG. 4 is a functional block diagram of the schedule change support system 100 according to the first embodiment.

[0029] The timetable change necessity determination unit 110 has the function of estimating the vehicle (hereinafter, the connecting vehicle) and the connecting station that will be unable to secure a connection due to the delay, and determining whether it is necessary to change the departure time of the vehicle (hereinafter, the connecting vehicle) to which the delayed vehicle is connected.

[0030] In the first embodiment, the schedule change necessity determination unit 110 is realized by the above-mentioned processing unit 105 (FIG. 3) executing various processing programs stored in the storage unit 104. The schedule change necessity determination unit 110 includes an operation status prediction unit 120, a transfer failure point estimation unit 130, an evaluation unit 140, and an alternative route search unit 150, as shown in FIG.

[0031] The operation status prediction unit 120 uses the operation plan information D1 and the vehicle position information D2 acquired from the operation systems 300, 400, and 500 through the communication unit 103 described above to generate predicted schedule information, which is a prediction result of the future operation status of each vehicle. D3 The operation plan information D1 is an operation plan applied to each vehicle on each route, and is transmitted in advance from the operation system to the schedule change support system and stored in the storage unit 104. The vehicle position information D2 is information indicating the traveling position of each vehicle whose operation status is managed by the operation systems 300, 400, and 500, and the latest information is transmitted at predetermined time intervals (for example, every 5 minutes), and the vehicle position information D2 stored in the storage unit 104 is updated.

[0032] FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of the predicted schedule information D3.

[0033] The predicted timetable information D3 includes information for uniquely identifying the vehicles (e.g., vehicle 1, vehicle 2, vehicle 3, vehicle 4, etc.), information for identifying the routes the vehicles travel on (e.g., route R1, route R2, route R3, etc.), information for identifying the stations at which the vehicles stop (e.g., station A, station B, station C, etc.), the arrival time and departure time of each vehicle at each station based on the operation plan information D1, the predicted arrival time and departure time of each vehicle at each station predicted based on the vehicle position information D2, and the delay time of the arrival time of each vehicle at each station.

[0034] The transfer failure point estimation unit 130 uses the predicted timetable information D3 and transfer information D4, which is information regarding transfers between vehicles, to generate transfer failure point information D5, which is an estimation result of the connecting source vehicle, the connecting destination vehicle, and the connecting station, where the connection between vehicles cannot be secured.

[0035] FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of the transit information D4.

[0036] The transfer information D4 includes, for two vehicles and a connecting station where passengers are expected to transfer, information for identifying a connecting vehicle, information for identifying a connecting vehicle, information for identifying a connecting station, the arrival time of the connecting vehicle at the connecting station, the departure time of the connecting vehicle at the connecting station, and the time required for passengers to transfer. The two vehicles where transfers are expected may be defined based on the operation plan of each line, or may be defined based on actual data regarding passenger transfers. The time required for passengers to transfer may be defined as an arbitrary value, or may be defined based on actual data regarding passenger transfers.

[0037] FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of the failed connection point information D5.

[0038] The transfer failure point information D5 includes, for each transfer failure point, information for uniquely identifying the transfer failure point (for example, an ID for managing the transfer failure point), information for identifying the connection source vehicle, information for identifying the connection destination vehicle, information for identifying the connection station where the transfer is made, the predicted arrival time of the connection source vehicle at the connection station, the predicted departure time of the connection destination vehicle at the connection station, and a shortage time that is the amount of time that is insufficient to ensure the connection between the vehicles. Here, the shortage time is calculated by taking the absolute value of the difference between the predicted departure time of the connection destination vehicle at the connection station and the predicted arrival time of the connection source vehicle at the connection station minus the time required for the passenger to transfer.

[0039] FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the travel demand prediction information D6.

[0040] The travel demand forecast information D6 includes information that can uniquely identify a passenger (for example, a user ID used when using a ticketing system), the passenger's departure station, a predicted departure time that is the time when the passenger is estimated to start moving, the passenger's destination station, and a route that the passenger is estimated to use. The route that the passenger is estimated to use can be obtained using a known algorithm, so a description thereof will be omitted here.

[0041] Figure 9 shows the departure time change FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of proposal information D7.

[0042] The departure time change proposal information D7 includes, for a failed transfer location where it is determined that the departure time of the connecting vehicle needs to be changed, information for uniquely identifying the failed transfer location, information for uniquely identifying the connecting vehicle where it is determined that the departure time needs to be changed, information for uniquely identifying the connecting station, and the predicted timetable information D3 obtained by referring to the predicted timetable information D3. departure This includes the time of day and a recommended departure time, which will be described later.

[0043] The evaluation unit 140 determines whether or not it is necessary to change the departure time of the destination vehicle for each failed transfer point, and if a change is necessary, updates the departure time change proposal information D7. The schedule change necessity determination unit 110 also transmits the departure time change proposal information D7 to the operation management system that manages the operation plan and operation status of the destination vehicle via the communication unit 103. The schedule change necessity determination unit 110 also displays the departure time change proposal information D7 on the output unit 102.

[0044] When a connection between vehicles cannot be secured due to a delay in the connecting vehicle, the alternative route search unit 150 uses the predicted timetable information D3, the transfer information D4, the travel demand forecast information D6 acquired from the ticketing system 200 via the communication unit 103, and the line network information indicating the connection relationship between stations. D0 Using these, a route that is different from the route estimated to be used by the passenger set in the travel demand forecast information D6 and in which the increase in the travel time required for travel is equal to or less than a predetermined value is searched for.

[0045] The processing of the schedule change support system 100 described above will be described in detail below.

[0046] FIG. 10 is a flowchart for explaining the process of the schedule change necessity determination unit 110.

[0047] First, the schedule change necessity determination unit 110 receives the current traveling positions of the vehicles 1 to 3 from the traffic management systems 300, 400, and 500 through the communication unit 103 (step S101). Figure 5 The predicted timetable information shown in FIG.

[0048] Next, the schedule change necessity determination unit 110 creates the failed connection point information shown in FIG. 7 by referring to the predicted schedule information shown in FIG. 5 and the connection information shown in FIG. 6 (step S102).

[0049] For example, when vehicle 1 and vehicle 2 are D3When the trains are operated as shown in Fig. 6, vehicle 1 arrives at station D at 7:35, and vehicle 2 departs from station D at 7:35. On the other hand, as shown in Fig. 6, it takes 3 minutes to transfer from vehicle 1 to vehicle 2. In this case, since the connection from vehicle 1 to vehicle 2 cannot be ensured, the transfer from vehicle 1 to vehicle 2 at station D is registered in the transfer failure point information as a transfer failure point, and the shortage time is represented as 3 minutes. This means that there is a shortage of 3 minutes in order to ensure the connection between vehicle 1 and vehicle 2.

[0050] If there is a failed transfer point (step S103 "Yes"), the schedule change necessity determination unit 110 receives the travel demand forecast information shown in FIG. 8 from the ticketing system 200 via the communication unit 103 (step S104).

[0051] If there is no failed connection point (step S103 "No"), it is determined that a schedule change is not necessary, and the schedule change necessity determination process is terminated. Next, the schedule change necessity determination unit 110 performs the following process for each failed connection point listed in step S102 (step S105a). However, in this embodiment, it is assumed that there is only one failed connection point.

[0052] First, an evaluation value calculation process (step S106) is performed. The details of this evaluation value calculation process will be described later (FIG. 12). Next, the schedule change necessity determination unit 110 determines whether or not it is necessary to change the departure time of the connecting vehicle at the connection failed point based on the calculated evaluation value (step S107).

[0053] For example, if the evaluation value exceeds a predetermined value, it is determined that a schedule change is necessary. Alternatively, instead of performing the evaluation value calculation process (step S106) and determining that a schedule change is necessary based on the evaluation value, a statistical model constructed using past performance data may be used to determine whether or not a schedule change is necessary.

[0054] If it is necessary to change the departure time of the connecting vehicle at the connection failed point (step S107 “Yes”), the timetable change necessity determination unit 110 calculates the departure time change proposal information shown in FIG. 9 based on the connection source vehicle at the connection failed point, the predicted arrival time at the connection station of the connection source vehicle, the connection destination vehicle, and the recommended departure time at the connection station of the connection destination vehicle. D7 (Step S108).

[0055] Here, the recommended departure time of the destination vehicle is the departure time of the destination vehicle that allows transfer from the source vehicle to the destination vehicle. For example, when making it possible to transfer from vehicle 1 to vehicle 2 at station D described in the transfer failure location information shown in Fig. 7, since the difference between the departure time of vehicle 2, which is the destination vehicle, and the arrival time of vehicle 1, which is the source vehicle, is three minutes short, the transfer from vehicle 1 to vehicle 2 is possible by delaying the departure time of vehicle 2 by three minutes or more.

[0056] In this embodiment 1, 7:38 is set as the recommended departure time of vehicle 2 using the constraints that a transfer from the connection source vehicle to the connection destination vehicle is possible and that the difference from the operation plan is minimal. Note that any constraint may be used as the constraint for setting the recommended departure time of the connection destination vehicle.

[0057] The above-mentioned processes from step S106 to step S108 are repeated for each of the failed connections listed in step S102 (step S105b).

[0058] After the processing of steps S106 to S108 has been completed for all transfer failure points listed in step S102, if there is no transfer point that has been determined to require a change in the departure time at the connecting station of the destination vehicle (step S109 ``No''), the determination of whether or not a timetable change is necessary is terminated.

[0059] On the other hand, if there is a failed transfer location at the connection station of the destination vehicle where it is determined that the departure time needs to be changed (step S109 “Yes”), the departure time change proposal information shown in FIG. 9 is transmitted to the operation management system that manages the operation status of the vehicle where it is determined that the departure time needs to be changed through the communication unit 103. D7 (Step S110). In addition, the output unit transmits the departure time change proposal information D7 is displayed (step S111).

[0060] Please note that the departure time change proposal information D7 Before transmitting the departure time change proposal information to the user of the schedule change support system 100, D7 The departure time change proposal information may be sent to the operation management system that manages the operation plan and operation status of the connecting vehicle. D7 The traffic control system may further include a receiving unit that receives information indicating whether or not a schedule change has been made to the traffic control system that has received the information.

[0061] FIG. 11 shows another example of the screen display of the result of the decision as to whether or not a schedule change is necessary.

[0062] In this example, the predicted arrival time of the connecting source vehicle and the predicted departure time of the connecting destination vehicle at station D are visually shown. Furthermore, the changes from the operation plan are also shown. Here, the changes from the operation plan are changes in arrival and departure times due to operational disruptions such as delays, and the recommended departure time set by the timetable change necessity determination unit 110. In addition, the dotted line connecting the horizontal line representing the predicted arrival time of the connecting source vehicle and the horizontal line representing the predicted departure time of the connecting destination vehicle indicates that it is possible to transfer from the connecting source vehicle to the connecting destination vehicle.

[0063] By using such a display method, the user can visually understand the operation status of the connection source vehicle and the connection destination vehicle, the result of the necessity determination made by the schedule change necessity determination unit 110, and the recommended departure time and the like calculated by the schedule change necessity determination unit 110. After performing the processes from step S101 to step S111 described above, the schedule change necessity determination unit 110 ends the schedule change necessity determination process.

[0064] The above series of processes are periodically activated and executed at predetermined time intervals (for example, every 5 minutes), but the timetable change support system 100 may also be configured to include a command input unit that accepts user command input, and to execute the above series of processes at the timing of user command input.

[0065] FIG. 12 shows the Evaluation value calculation process 13 is a flowchart for explaining the process of S106.

[0066] According to this Example 1, Evaluation value calculation process In S106, the evaluation unit 140 calculates an evaluation value for determining whether or not it is necessary to change the departure time of the destination vehicle at the connecting station.

[0067] First, the evaluation unit 140 evaluates the travel demand forecast information received in step S104. D6 8, passengers who will transfer from a connection source vehicle to a connection destination vehicle at the connection failure point (hereinafter, referred to as transfer passengers) are extracted (step S201). For example, in the travel demand forecast information shown in FIG. 8, passengers 1 and 2 are transfer passengers at the connection failure point.

[0068] Next, the schedule change necessity determination unit 110 performs the following process for each transfer passenger extracted in step S201 (step S202a).

[0069] First, the evaluation unit 140 performs an alternative route search process (step S203). The details of this alternative route search process will be described later (FIG. 13). If there is no alternative route (step S204 "No"), the evaluation unit 140 updates the evaluation value of the destination vehicle at the transfer failure point (step S205).

[0070] In the present embodiment 1, the evaluation value V is calculated, for example, by the following formula (1). [Formula 1] V = Σ (increase in waiting time for transfer passenger i who has no alternative route) In formula (1), the waiting time increment is the difference between the arrival time of the connecting vehicle and the departure time of the connecting destination vehicle when each vehicle operates according to the operation plan information D1, minus the difference between the arrival time of the connecting vehicle and the departure time of the connecting destination vehicle when each vehicle operates according to the predicted timetable information D3 and it is assumed that the transferring passenger transfers to a vehicle that departs after the vehicle that they were originally scheduled to transfer to.

[0071] For example, if vehicles 1 to 4 operate according to the operation plan, passenger 1 shown in FIG. 8 is estimated to transfer from vehicle 1 to vehicle 2, and the waiting time is six minutes from vehicle 1's arrival time at station D, 7:29, to vehicle 2's departure time from station D, 7:35. On the other hand, if the operation is according to the predicted timetable information shown in FIG. 5, passenger 1 is assumed to transfer to vehicle 4, which is the vehicle that departs after vehicle 2, and the waiting time is 20 minutes from vehicle 1's arrival time at station D, 7:35, to vehicle 4's departure time from station D, 7:55. Therefore, the waiting time increase for passenger 1 is calculated to be 14 minutes.

[0072] The above-mentioned steps S203 to S205 are performed for each transfer passenger extracted in step S201 (S202b). After performing the above-mentioned processes from step S201 to step S205, the evaluation unit 140 ends the evaluation value calculation process.

[0073] FIG. 13 is a flowchart for explaining the alternative route search process S203 shown in FIG.

[0074] According to this Example 1, Alternative route search process In step S203, the alternative route search unit 150 receives the travel demand forecast information in step S104. D6 The system searches for a route (hereinafter, alternative route) that is different from the route (hereinafter, original route) that is estimated to be used by the passenger and has an increase in travel time that is less than a specified value.

[0075] First, the alternative route search unit 150 receives the destination station of the transfer passenger, transfer information D4, and route network information D0With reference to the above, the system lists routes in which a route is reached to the destination station or a station located within a specified range from the destination station by changing to a vehicle different from that of the original route at a connecting station that is the same as the original route, and routes in which a route is reached to the destination station or a station located within a specified range from the destination station by changing to a vehicle different from that of the original route at a connecting station that is different from the original route (step S301).

[0076] In this specification, these routes are collectively referred to as a route different from the original route. For example, passenger 1 shown in Fig. 8 has a route set as an original route in which passenger 1 transfers from a vehicle traveling on line 1 to a vehicle traveling on line 2 and travels from station A to station D to station F, and there is no route different from the original route. On the other hand, passenger 2 shown in Fig. 8 has a route set as an original route in which passenger 2 transfers from a vehicle traveling on line 1 to a vehicle traveling on line 2 and travels from station A to station D to station F to station H, and there is a route different from the original route in which passenger 2 transfers from line 1 to line 3 and travels from station A to station D to station G to station H.

[0077] If there is no route different from the original route (step S302 “No”), the alternative route search unit determines that there is no alternative route for the transfer passenger (step S309) and ends the alternative route search process. For example, it is determined that there is no alternative route for the above-mentioned passenger 1.

[0078] On the other hand, if there is a route different from the original route (step S302 "Yes"), the predicted timetable information D3 is referenced and the arrival time at the destination station if the passenger uses the original route is calculated (step S303). For example, if the above-mentioned passenger 2 uses the original route, it is estimated that he or she will transfer from car 1 to car 4, which is the car that follows car 2, and the arrival time at station H is calculated to be 8:14.

[0079] Next, the alternative route searching unit 150 performs the following process for each route listed in step S301 (step S304a).

[0080] First, the alternative route search unit 150 refers to the predicted timetable information D3 and the transfer information D4, and calculates the arrival time at the destination station of the route or at a station within a predetermined range from the destination station (step S305). For example, if the above-mentioned passenger 2 uses a route different from the original route, it is estimated that he or she will transfer from car 1 to car 3, and the arrival time at station H is calculated to be 8:04.

[0081] Next, step S 303 The arrival time at the destination station when the original route calculated in step S302 is used is compared with the arrival time at the destination station or a station within a predetermined range of the destination station when the new route calculated in step S305 is used (step S306).

[0082] The above-mentioned steps S305 and S306 are performed for each route searched for in step S301 (step S304b).

[0083] If there is a route different from the original route searched in step S301 whose increment from the arrival time at the destination station when the original route is used is within a predetermined range (step S307 "Yes"), the alternative route search unit determines that an alternative route exists for the transfer passenger (step S308) and terminates the alternative route search process. For example, when passenger 2 described above uses a route different from the original route, the arrival time at station H is 10 minutes earlier than when the original route is used. In other words, the increment is 0 minutes. Therefore, the route in which passenger 2 transfers from car 1 to car 3 and travels from station A to station D to station G to station H is determined to be an alternative route.

[0084] On the other hand, if there is no route whose arrival time at the destination station when the original route is used is within a specified range (step S307 "No"), the alternative route search unit determines that there is no alternative route for the transfer passenger (step S309) and terminates the alternative route search process.

[0085] As described above, the schedule change support system 100 of the first embodiment predicts the arrival time of each vehicle at each station, estimates the locations of failed connections, searches for alternative routes for each connecting passenger who transfers from the connecting source vehicle to the connecting destination vehicle for each failed connection location, and determines whether or not the schedule needs to be changed based on the results of the alternative route search. By determining whether or not the schedule needs to be changed in this way, it is possible to make the minimum necessary schedule changes while responding to passenger travel demand. EXAMPLES

[0086] Second embodiment A schedule change support system 100 according to a second embodiment will be described with reference to FIG.

[0087] The present embodiment 2 is a modified example of the above-mentioned embodiment 1, in which the schedule change support system 100 additionally stores passenger point information D8 in the storage unit 104. In addition, the schedule change necessity determination unit 110 additionally has a passenger point update unit 160. The other configurations are the same as those of the schedule change support system 100 of embodiment 1, and therefore the description thereof will be omitted.

[0088] In the second embodiment, when vehicles 1 to 4 stop at station D, and the arrival time of vehicle 1 at station D and the departure time of vehicle 2 at station D are set in the operation plan so that transfer from vehicle 1 to vehicle 2 is possible, and a connection from vehicle 1 to vehicle 2 cannot be secured due to a delay in vehicle 1, it is determined whether or not it is necessary to change the departure time of the connecting vehicle based on the number of transfer passengers who are unable to reach their destination station via a route different from the originally intended route and the accumulated points awarded to passengers according to the disadvantage suffered as a result of the determination of whether or not the timetable needs to be changed.

[0089] FIG. 15 is a diagram showing an example of the passenger point information D8.

[0090] Passenger point information D8 is information that stores the cumulative total of points awarded to passengers according to the disadvantage they suffer as a result of a determination as to whether or not a change in schedule is necessary at transportation facility 1, and includes information that can uniquely identify the passenger (such as a user ID for using the ticketing system) and the cumulative total of points awarded to each passenger.

[0091] When the passenger point update unit 160 determines whether or not a schedule change is necessary, it extracts passengers who will suffer disadvantage as a result of the schedule change determination, calculates points according to the degree of disadvantage suffered by each passenger, and grants them to each passenger. That is, it refers to the passenger point information D8 and adds the calculated points to the cumulative total of points linked to information that can uniquely identify each passenger.

[0092] The process of the schedule change support system 100 according to the second embodiment will be described in detail below.

[0093] FIG. 16 is a flowchart for explaining the process of the schedule change necessity determination unit 110.

[0094] The process of the schedule change support system according to the second embodiment differs from the process of the schedule change support system according to the first embodiment in that it additionally includes a method of calculating an evaluation value in step S106 and step S112. The other steps are the same as those in the first embodiment, and therefore the description thereof will be omitted.

[0095] According to this second embodiment, Evaluation value calculation process In S106, the evaluation unit 140 calculates an evaluation value for determining whether or not it is necessary to change the departure time of the destination vehicle at the connecting station based on the passenger point information and the presence or absence of an alternative route for the transfer passenger. The evaluation value V is calculated, for example, by the following formula (2).

[0096] [Formula 2] V = Σ(increase in waiting time for transfer passenger i who has no alternative route × wi) In formula (2), wi is a value set based on the total points given to passenger i obtained by referring to passenger point information, for example, a normalized total of points given to each passenger.

[0097] FIG. 17 shows the Passenger points information update process 13 is a flowchart for explaining the process of S112.

[0098] According to this second embodiment, Passenger points information update process In S112, the passenger point update unit 160 receives the acceptance or rejection of the departure time change proposal from the traffic management system, and updates the passenger point information D8 according to the acceptance or rejection result.

[0099] first, Passenger Points Update Department The unit 160 receives, from each traffic control system that has transmitted the departure time change proposal information D7, information on whether the departure time change proposal is acceptable or not (step S401).

[0100] next, Passenger Points Update Department 160 performs the following process for each failed transfer location estimated in step S102 (step S402a). If the departure time change at the connecting station of the destination vehicle at the failed transfer location is acceptable (step S403 "Yes"), D6 , and extracts passengers who have been aboard the connecting vehicle at the connecting station since before the predicted departure time (step S404).

[0101] On the other hand, if the departure time change at the connecting station of the destination vehicle at the point of failed transfer is unacceptable (step S403 "No"), the transfer passengers are extracted (step S405).

[0102] next, Passenger Points Update Department 160 assigns points to each passenger extracted in step S404 or step S405 based on the result of whether the departure time change proposal for the missed connection point is accepted, and adds the points to the cumulative total of passenger point information D8 (step S406).

[0103] Here, the points are values ​​given to passengers according to the disadvantage they have suffered as a result of the decision on whether or not to change the timetable, and are set based on the amount of time the departure time of the destination vehicle was delayed for passengers who have been on the destination vehicle at the connecting station since before the predicted departure time, or based on the increase in waiting time due to the departure time of the destination vehicle not being changed for transfer passengers.

[0104] The above-mentioned steps S403 to S406 are performed for each failed connection location estimated in step S102 (S402b). After performing the above-mentioned steps S401 to S406, the passenger point update unit 160 updates the passenger points information The update process ends.

[0105] As described above, the schedule change support system 100 of this embodiment predicts the arrival time of each vehicle at each station, estimates the locations of failed connections, searches for alternative routes for each connecting passenger who transfers from the connecting source vehicle to the connecting destination vehicle at each failed connection location, and determines whether or not the schedule needs to be changed based on the results of the alternative route search and the accumulated points of the passengers. By determining whether or not the schedule needs to be changed in this way, it is possible to make the minimum necessary schedule changes while responding to passenger travel demand, and also to make rational schedule changes while leveling out inequalities between passengers in the long term.

[0106] Although the present invention has been described above using examples, the technical scope of the present invention is not limited to the scope described in the above examples, and includes various modified examples. For example, the above examples have been described in detail to clearly explain the present invention, and the present invention is not necessarily limited to those having all of the configurations described. In addition, it is possible to add, delete, or replace part of the configuration of the examples with other configurations.

[0107] Furthermore, the order of execution of each process, such as operations, procedures, steps, etc., in the functions, systems, and methods shown in the claims, specifications, and drawings is not specifically stated as "before," "prior to," etc., and may be realized in any order unless the output of a previous process is used in a later process. Even if the operational flow in the claims, specifications, and drawings is explained using "first," "next," etc. for convenience, it does not mean that it is essential to perform the operations in this order. [Explanation of symbols]

[0108] 1. Transportation 10 Transportation Systems 100 Timetable change support system 101 Input section 102 Output section 103 Communications Department 104 Storage section 105 Processing section 110 Timetable change necessity determination unit 120 Operation Status Prediction Department 130 Missed connection location estimation unit 140 Evaluation Department 150 Alternative Route Search Department 160 Passenger Points Update Department 200 Ticketing System 201 Mobile Devices 300 Traffic Control System 400 Traffic Control System 500 Traffic Management System

Claims

1. A schedule change support system having a processing unit and a storage unit, The storage unit is Store operation plan information, vehicle position information, and travel demand forecast information including a departure station of a passenger who uses each station where the vehicle stops, an arrival time at the departure station, a destination station, and a first route from the departure station to the destination station; The processing unit includes: A timetable change necessity determination unit that determines whether a timetable change is necessary, The schedule change necessity determination unit, an operation status prediction unit that estimates a predicted arrival time of each vehicle at each station based on the vehicle position information and generates predicted timetable information; a transfer failure location estimation unit that estimates a transfer failure location defined by a station where a connection cannot be ensured due to a delay in arrival of the vehicle, a connection source vehicle, and a connection destination vehicle based on the predicted timetable information and transfer information including two vehicles and a connecting station where the passenger is expected to transfer; an alternative route search unit that searches for a second route to the destination station by transferring to a vehicle different from the vehicle to which the user is expected to transfer when using the first route, at a station where the connection cannot be ensured, based on line network information indicating connections between stations and the predicted timetable information; an evaluation unit that determines whether or not it is necessary to change the departure time of the destination vehicle at the connection station based on the transfer failure location and the search result of the alternative route search unit; A timetable change support system.

2. The alternative route search unit The timetable change support system of claim 1, wherein for each of the failed transfer points, passengers transferring between two vehicles where a connection cannot be ensured due to a delay in the connecting vehicle are extracted, and whether or not the second route exists for each of the passengers is searched for.

3. The evaluation unit is The timetable change support system according to claim 2, further comprising: calculating an evaluation value for the destination vehicle based on the number of passengers for which the second route does not exist; and determining whether or not it is necessary to change the departure time of the destination vehicle based on the evaluation value.

4. The processing unit includes: For each of the transfer failure points at which it is determined by the evaluation unit that it is necessary to change the departure time of the destination vehicle, The timetable change support system of claim 1, which creates departure time proposal information including information for uniquely identifying the connecting vehicle, information for uniquely identifying the connecting station, and a recommended departure time of the connecting vehicle.

5. The schedule change support system according to claim 4, further comprising an output unit that outputs the proposed departure time information.

6. The storage unit is Further storing passenger point information including information that can uniquely identify the passenger using the transportation facility and a cumulative total of points that are awarded to the passenger according to the disadvantage suffered by the passenger as a result of the determination of the necessity of a schedule change in the transportation facility; The schedule change necessity determination unit, A passenger point update unit extracts the passengers who will suffer disadvantages as a result of the schedule change necessity determination, calculates points according to the degree of disadvantage suffered by each passenger, and updates the passenger point information, The evaluation unit is The timetable change support system of claim 1, which determines whether or not it is necessary to change the departure time of the destination vehicle at the connecting station based on the failed transfer location, the search results of the alternative route search unit, and the passenger point information.

7. The evaluation unit is Calculating an evaluation value for the destination vehicle based on the number of passengers for which the second route does not exist and the passenger point information; The schedule change support system according to claim 6, wherein whether or not the departure time of the destination vehicle needs to be changed is determined based on the evaluation value.

8. The passenger point update unit, Acquire identification information including information that can uniquely identify the transfer failure location and information that can identify whether a schedule change has been made, For each of the aforementioned failed connections, When a timetable change is made, extract passengers who have been aboard the destination vehicle since before the departure time of the destination vehicle at the connecting station, and give them points set based on the amount of time by which the departure time of the destination vehicle was changed; The timetable change support system of claim 6, further comprising: extracting passengers transferring from the source vehicle to the destination vehicle when the timetable change is not made; and awarding points set based on the delay in arrival of the source vehicle and the increase in travel time resulting from the timetable change not being made.

9. A transportation system in which a schedule change support system, an operation management system, and a ticketing system are connected via a line, The schedule change support system includes: A storage unit that stores operation plan information, vehicle position information, and travel demand forecast information including a departure station of a passenger who uses each station where the vehicle stops, an arrival time at the departure station, a destination station, and a first route from the departure station to the destination station; an operation status prediction unit that estimates a predicted arrival time of each vehicle at each station based on the vehicle position information and generates predicted timetable information; a transfer failure location estimation unit that estimates a transfer failure location defined by a station where a connection cannot be ensured due to a delay in arrival of the vehicle, a connection source vehicle, and a connection destination vehicle based on the predicted timetable information and transfer information including two vehicles and a connecting station where the passenger is expected to transfer; an alternative route search unit that searches for a second route to the destination station by transferring to a vehicle different from the vehicle to which the user is expected to transfer when using the first route at a station where the connection cannot be ensured, based on route network information indicating connections between stations and the predicted timetable information; an evaluation unit that determines whether or not it is necessary to change the departure time of the destination vehicle at the connection station based on the transfer failure location and the search result of the alternative route search unit, The traffic management system includes: Manage the operation plan of a transportation facility that operates according to the operation plan and the operation status of the vehicle, and send the operation plan information and the vehicle position information to the schedule change support system; The ticketing system comprises: A transportation system in which passengers using the transportation facility pay a fare for using the transportation facility, and the travel demand forecast information is sent to the schedule change support system.

10. The traffic management system includes: Transmitting the latest vehicle position information to the schedule change support system at predetermined time intervals; The processing unit of the schedule change support system 10. The transportation system according to claim 9, wherein the vehicle position information stored in the storage unit is updated based on the latest vehicle position information.

11. The ticketing system comprises: Transmitting the latest travel demand forecast information to the schedule change support system at predetermined time intervals; The processing unit of the schedule change support system The transportation system according to claim 9 , wherein the travel demand forecast information stored in the storage unit is updated based on the latest travel demand forecast information.

12. The schedule change support system includes: The transportation system of claim 9, further comprising a transmission unit that transmits to the operation management system, when the evaluation unit determines that the departure time needs to be changed, departure time proposal information including information for uniquely identifying the connecting vehicle, information for uniquely identifying the connecting station, and a recommended departure time for the connecting vehicle.

13. The schedule change support system includes: The transportation system of claim 12, further comprising a receiving unit that acquires, from the operation management system that has received the departure time proposal information, identification information including information that can uniquely identify the transfer failure location and information that can identify whether a schedule change has been made.

14. The schedule change support system includes: The transportation system described in claim 9, further comprising a transmitting unit that transmits to the ticketing system alternative route information including information that can uniquely identify a passenger for whom the alternative route search unit has determined that the second route exists and the second route searched by the alternative route search unit when the evaluation unit determines that the departure time does not need to be changed.

15. A schedule change support method for determining whether or not a departure time of a vehicle needs to be changed, comprising: a storage step of storing operation plan information, vehicle position information, and travel demand forecast information including a departure station of a passenger who uses each station where the vehicle stops, an arrival time at the departure station, a destination station, and a first route from the departure station to the destination station; an operation status prediction step of estimating a predicted arrival time of each vehicle at each station based on the vehicle position information and generating predicted timetable information; a transfer failure point estimation step of estimating a transfer failure point defined by a station where a connection cannot be ensured due to a delay in arrival of the vehicle, a connection source vehicle, and a connection destination vehicle, based on the predicted timetable information and transfer information including two vehicles and a connecting station where the passenger is expected to transfer; an alternative route searching step of searching for a second route to the destination station by transferring to a vehicle different from the vehicle to which the user is expected to transfer when using the first route at a station where the connection cannot be ensured, based on line network information indicating connections between stations and the predicted timetable information; an evaluation step of determining whether or not it is necessary to change the departure time of the destination vehicle at the connection station based on the transfer failure location and the search result of the alternative route search step; A timetable change support method having the above-mentioned feature.

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