Abnormal modulation cause identification device, abnormal modulation cause identification method, and abnormal modulation cause identification program

Abstract

The present invention improves the ability to identify the cause of abnormal modulation in production equipment. This abnormal modulation cause identification device comprises: a process data acquisition unit which reads process data from a storage device that stores process data that is continuously output by a plurality of sensors installed in production equipment; an abnormality determination unit which calculates the degree of abnormality indicating the degree of modulation of the process data read by the process data acquisition unit; and a cause diagnosis unit which determines, for the process data output by the plurality of sensors, whether the degree of abnormality calculated by the abnormality determination unit satisfies a predetermined reference, by using causal relationship information that defines, in a time-series hierarchical manner, a combination of causal relationships between the cause and the modulation, of process data output by the plurality of sensors, that appear as the effects of the cause.

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to an abnormal modulation cause identifying device, an abnormal modulation cause identifying method, and an abnormal modulation cause identifying program. [Background technology]

[0002] Conventionally, techniques have been proposed for estimating the cause of an abnormality using operation data received from a plant. For example, a technique has been proposed for estimating the cause of a precursor of an abnormality by weighting the probability of occurrence of a first abnormal event that has occurred in the past more heavily than the probability of occurrence of a second abnormal event that has not yet occurred (Patent Document 1). In addition, a technique has been proposed for estimating a contribution rate indicating the proportion of the contribution of a process variable indicating the state of the diagnosed process when an abnormality is detected in the diagnosed process, and estimating an event that may be the cause of the abnormality from among predefined registered events based on the contribution rate (Patent Document 2).

[0003] Also proposed is a technology that uses multiple submodels that predict the state of a process to calculate a deviation index from the normal state of the process, and estimates the cause of an abnormal state that has occurred in the process based on a deviation index pattern set consisting of the deviation indexes calculated for each submodel (Patent Document 3).Also proposed is a technology that calculates a monitoring contribution to a monitoring abnormality degree for each of multiple operation data that constitute the monitoring operation data, extracts a diagnosis target data group consisting of the top N operation data with the highest monitoring contribution, calculates a match index between the diagnosis target data group and a diagnosis reference data group consisting of the top M operation data with the highest reference contribution included in the reference operation data, and predicts a plant abnormality based on the reference operation data whose match index is equal to or greater than a match determination threshold (Patent Document 4). [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] JP 2018-109851 A [Patent Document 2] JP 2018-120343 A [Patent Document 3] JP 2019-16039 A [Patent Document 4] JP 2019-57164 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] In general, in production facilities, it is desirable to prevent abnormality and suppress the impact on safety, stability, product quality, cost, etc. The present technology aims to improve the performance of identifying the cause of abnormality in production facilities. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] The abnormal modulation cause identification device includes a process data acquisition unit that reads out process data from a storage device that stores process data that is continuously output by multiple sensors equipped in a production facility, an abnormality determination unit that calculates an abnormality degree that indicates the degree of modulation of the process data read out by the process data acquisition unit, and a cause diagnosis unit that uses causal relationship information that defines, in a hierarchical manner along a time series, combinations of causal relationships between causes and the modulation of the process data output by the multiple sensors that appears as an effect resulting from the causes, and determines whether the abnormality degree calculated by the abnormality determination unit for the process data output by the multiple sensors satisfies a predetermined standard.

[0007] Since the causal relationship information defines a combination of causal relationships with modulation of process data output by multiple sensors that appears as an effect caused by a cause in a hierarchical manner along a time series, an abnormality caused by some cause can be detected by increasing the amount of process data output by multiple sensors whose anomaly degree meets a predetermined standard. In other words, even if there is only a small amount of process data output by multiple sensors whose anomaly degree meets a predetermined standard, a sign of an abnormality caused by some cause can be detected. Therefore, the performance of identifying the cause of abnormal modulation in a production facility can be improved.

[0008] The abnormality degree determination unit may calculate the abnormality degree according to whether the deviation from the predetermined standard is positive or negative. By calculating the abnormality degree taking into account whether the deviation is positive or negative, it becomes possible to reduce erroneous determinations compared to calculating the abnormality degree based only on the magnitude of deviation.

[0009] The anomaly determination unit may calculate the degree of anomaly for at least some of the maximum and minimum values ​​of the process data according to whether the direction of deviation from a predetermined standard is positive or negative. By taking into account the direction of deviation from the standard for the degree of anomaly at characteristic points in the continuously acquired process data, the accuracy of anomaly detection can be efficiently improved.

[0010] The causal relationship information may define the process data used to calculate the degree of abnormality by the timing, period, or interval in the process performed by the production equipment for each of the process data output by the multiple sensors, and the abnormality determination unit may calculate the degree of abnormality using a value extracted from the process data read by the process data acquisition unit based on the timing, period, or interval defined by the causal relationship information. For example, the timing, period, or interval may be defined based on a so-called knowledge base. If the values ​​used to calculate the degree of abnormality from the process data can be defined in detail, the accuracy of the abnormality determination can be improved, and unnecessary calculations can be reduced, thereby reducing the load on the system.

[0011] The abnormality determination unit may use a neural network model that compresses and restores the values ​​of process data output by a plurality of sensors included in a predetermined combination, and calculate the degree of abnormality according to the difference between the input and output of the neural network model. By learning the relationship between the output values ​​of the plurality of sensors under normal conditions using a so-called autoencoder, it becomes possible to determine that an abnormality has occurred when the process data cannot be restored appropriately.

[0012] The system may further include a pre-processing unit that calculates an average value, a maximum value, a minimum value, a slope, or a standard deviation for a predetermined period of time for the process data read by the process data acquisition unit, and the abnormality determination unit may calculate the degree of abnormality using the values ​​calculated by the pre-processing unit. By using these values ​​that represent the characteristics of the process data obtained from the production equipment, rather than the process data itself, it is possible to reduce unnecessary values ​​and obtain statistical values ​​that are likely to show abnormal trends.

[0013] The causal relationship information may be created by analyzing the causal relationship between the cause and the modulation by Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP), Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Event Tree Analysis (ETA), or an analysis method based on any of these. Creating causal relationship information by extracting all possible causes of modulation makes it possible to improve the accuracy of anomaly detection and cause identification, and to detect anomalies and identify their causes early on the basis of values ​​that change before the final modulation appears.

[0014] The contents described in the means for solving the problem can be combined as much as possible without departing from the problem and technical idea of ​​the present disclosure. The contents of the means for solving the problem can be provided as a device such as a computer or a system including multiple devices, a method executed by a computer, or a program executed by a computer. A recording medium for storing the program may be provided. Effect of the Invention

[0015] According to the disclosed technology, it is possible to improve the accuracy of identifying the cause of abnormal modulation in production equipment. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0016] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a system according to the present embodiment. [Diagram 2]FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram showing an example of a process carried out by equipment included in a plant. [Diagram 3] FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining an example of process data in a batch process. [Figure 4] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of a process line definition table that is set in advance. [Diagram 5] FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of a tag definition table that is set in advance. [Figure 6] FIG. 6 is a diagram for explaining an example of process data in a continuous process. [Figure 7] FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of traceability information. [Figure 8] FIG. 8 is a diagram for explaining the association between process data in a continuous process and a serial number in a batch process. [Figure 9] FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of information registered in advance in the knowledge base. [Figure 10] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a logic tree representing the relationship between modulation and its causes. [Figure 11] FIG. 11 is a diagram for explaining the synchronization process of the process data. [Figure 12] FIG. 12 is a diagram for explaining an example of calculating the degree of anomaly for time-series data based on the distance from a reference. [Figure 13] FIG. 13 is a diagram for explaining an example of calculating the degree of anomaly based on the distance from the reference, taking into account the positive and negative directions of time-series data. [Figure 14] FIG. 14 is a diagram for explaining anomaly detection using an autoencoder. [Figure 15] FIG. 15 is a block diagram showing an example of the configuration of an abnormal modulation cause identifying device. [Figure 16] FIG. 16 is a process flow diagram showing an example of a learning process executed by the abnormal modulation cause identifying device. [Figure 17] FIG. 17 is a diagram illustrating an example of the action table. [Figure 18] FIG. 18 is a process flow diagram showing an example of an abnormality detection process executed by the abnormal modulation cause identifying device. [Figure 19] FIG. 19 is a diagram showing an example of a screen output to an input / output device. [Figure 20] FIG. 20 is a diagram showing another example of the screen output to the input / output device. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0017] Hereinafter, an embodiment of an abnormal modulation cause identifying device will be described with reference to the drawings.

[0018] <Embodiment> FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of a system according to this embodiment. The system 100 includes an abnormal modulation cause identification device 1, a control station 2, and a plant 3. The system 100 is, for example, a distributed control system (DCS) and includes a plurality of control stations 2. That is, the control system of the plant 3 is divided into a plurality of sections, and each control section is controlled in a distributed manner by the control station 2. The control station 2 is an existing facility in the DCS, and receives status signals output from sensors and the like included in the plant 3, and outputs control signals to the plant 3. Then, actuators such as valves and other devices included in the plant 3 are controlled based on the control signals.

[0019] The abnormal modulation cause identifying device 1 acquires a state signal (process data) of the plant 3 via the control station 2. The process data includes the temperature, pressure, flow rate, etc. of the processing target, which is the raw material or intermediate product, and the set value that determines the operating condition of the equipment equipped in the plant 3. In addition, the abnormal modulation cause identifying device 1 creates an abnormality detection model based on a knowledge base that stores the correspondence between the assumed cause and, for example, the influence that appears as an abnormality. For example, a model for identifying the abnormal modulation, its sign, and its cause is created based on a method for detecting deviation from an allowable range for the change in the process data, which is created based on the knowledge base. Then, the abnormal modulation cause identifying device 1 can detect the occurrence of the abnormal modulation or its sign by using the model and the process data. In addition, the abnormal modulation cause identifying device 1 may obtain candidates for operating conditions for suppressing the abnormal modulation, for example, based on the identified cause and a table that stores the cause of the abnormal modulation and the action to deal with it, and present them to the user.

[0020] 2 is a schematic diagram showing an example of a process performed by equipment in a plant. In this embodiment, the process may include a batch process 31 and a continuous process 32. In the batch process 31, the processing target is sequentially processed for each predetermined processing unit, and for example, processing such as receiving, holding, and discharging raw materials into each equipment is performed in sequence. In the continuous process 32, the processing target that is continuously introduced is continuously processed, and for example, processing such as receiving, holding, and discharging raw materials is performed in parallel. In addition, the process may include multiple series 33 that perform the same processing in parallel.

[0021] The devices performing each process include, for example, a reactor, a distillation device, a heat exchanger, a compressor, a pump, a tank, and the like, which are connected via piping. Sensors, valves, and the like are provided at predetermined positions of the devices and piping. The sensors may include a thermometer, a flow meter, a pressure gauge, a level gauge, a concentration meter, and the like. The sensors monitor the operating state of each device and output a status signal. The sensors provided in the plant 3 are each provided with a "tag," which is identification information for identifying each sensor. In other words, the type of process data can be identified based on the tag. The abnormal modulation cause identification device 1 and the control station 2 manage input / output signals to each device based on the tag.

[0022] <Batch process> FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining an example of process data in a batch process. The left column of FIG. 3 shows a part of the process of the batch process 31 shown in FIG. 2. Specifically, the process includes a shredder 301, a cyclone 302, a pretreatment 303, a precooler 304, and a reactor 305. These processes are classified into a pretreatment process, a precooling process, and a reaction process. The right column of FIG. 3 shows an example of process data acquired in each process. In the pretreatment process, time-series data is acquired from sensors with tags 001 and 002. In the precooling process, time-series data is acquired from sensors with tags 003 and 004. In the reaction process, time-series data is acquired from sensors with tags 005, 006, and 007. In the batch process, a processing target associated with a manufacturing number (also called a "manufacturing number", "batch number", or "management number") is intermittently processed. That is, the serial number is identification information for identifying the processing target to be processed collectively in the batch process. As shown in FIG. 3, time-series data on the processing target associated with the subsequent serial number is obtained as time passes. In this embodiment, the control station 2 manages the serial number and the step indicating the stage of the processing in the subdivided process constituting the batch process. When the step is reset by a PLC (Programmable Logic Controller, sequencer) in the plant 3 connected to the control station 2, the serial number of the process data output from the control station 2 may be appropriately adopted according to the timing of communication between the control station 2 and the plant 3 (for example, after the step is switched in the PLC, or after a set time has elapsed). The set time may be set for each production line and each subdivided process.

[0023] 4 is a diagram showing an example of a process line definition table that is set in advance. In the process line definition table, a manufacturing number, a definition of a step indicating a processing stage in each process, and a type of a processing target to be processed in each process are registered for each series and process. The process line definition table may be a so-called database table, or may be a file in a predetermined format such as CSV. The process line definition table is also created in advance by a user, and is read out by the abnormal modulation cause identifying device 1.

[0024] The process line definition table includes attributes of series, process, serial number, step, and product type. The series field stores identification information for specifying a process series. The process field stores identification information for indicating a subdivided process in a batch process. The serial number field stores a serial number, which is identification information for identifying objects to be processed collectively in a batch process. The step field stores a definition of the timing of multiple steps that indicate the stage of processing in the process. The product type field stores the type of object to be processed.

[0025] 5 is a diagram showing an example of a tag definition table that is set in advance. The tag definition table defines the acquisition timing of process data obtained from a sensor corresponding to each tag. The tag definition table may be a so-called database table, or may be a file in a predetermined format such as CSV (Comma Separated Values). The tag definition table is created in advance by a user, and is read out by the abnormal modulation cause identifying device 1.

[0026] The tag definition table includes attributes of tag, series, process, and collection interval. In the tag field, a tag that is identification information of a sensor is registered. In the series field, identification information for specifying a process series is registered. In the process field, identification information indicating a subdivided process in a batch process is registered. In the collection interval field, information indicating the interval at which the sensor output value is acquired is registered.

[0027] <Continuous process> FIG. 6 is a diagram for explaining an example of process data in a continuous process. The left column of FIG. 6 shows a part of the process of the continuous process 32 shown in FIG. 2. Specifically, the process includes a tank 311 and a pump 312. The right column of FIG. 6 shows an example of process data acquired in each process. In the continuous process 32, time-series data associated with a tag and not associated with a serial number is continuously acquired from a sensor. In the continuous process, time-series data is acquired from each sensor with tags 102 and 103. In the continuous process, equipment continuously receives objects to be processed and continuously performs processing.

[0028] When a continuous process is performed after a batch process, in order to link a processing target in the batch process with a processing target in the continuous process, in this embodiment, traceability information set in advance by a user is used. FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of traceability information. The traceability information includes attributes of a sampling interval and a residence time. In the sampling interval field, an interval at which sampling is performed for a process inspection by, for example, a reduction method in the continuous process is registered. In the residence time field, a time during which a processing target remains after the completion of a batch process until it reaches a process included in the continuous process is registered.

[0029] FIG. 8 is a diagram for explaining the association between process data in a continuous process and a serial number in a batch process. The process data is acquired, for example, at intervals set in the traceability information. When a continuous process is performed after a batch process, the product of the batch process completed within a predetermined period is introduced into a tank or the like as a processing target for the continuous process. Therefore, the process data in the continuous process can be associated with a group of serial numbers whose completion time of the batch process falls within the predetermined period by tracing back the residence time of the processing target from the completion of the batch process to the measurement by the sensor. By such association, when a batch process and a continuous process are performed successively, the accuracy of identifying the cause of an abnormality using the process data in the batch process can be improved.

[0030] As described above, by associating the serial number in the batch process with the measurement timing in the continuous process, it is possible to improve the accuracy of identifying the cause of an abnormality.

[0031] FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of information registered in advance in the knowledge base. The knowledge base is assumed to be stored in advance in the storage device of the abnormal modulation cause identification device 1. The table in FIG. 9 includes columns of "effect" corresponding to each sensor (tag) and rows indicating "assumed cause" of modulation. That is, the direction of value fluctuation is registered in the columns corresponding to the sensors affected by causes such as "cause 1" and "cause 2" shown in each row. In the knowledge base, the direction of fluctuation is displayed as "up" representing an increase (rise) in the output value of the sensor or "down" representing a decrease (drop). As shown in FIG. 9, the combination of cause and effect is not necessarily one-to-one. In addition, a calculation method of process data, extraction timing, threshold value used for abnormality judgment, etc. are determined in association with each sensor. Information indicating a calculation to be performed on the output value of each sensor is registered in the row of the calculation method. In this embodiment, for example, a machine learning method such as the Hotelling method, k-nearest neighbor method, DTW Barycenter Averaging, Autoencoder, and Graphical Lasso is used to perform the calculation. In the row of extraction timing, information indicating the timing at which the value used for anomaly judgment is extracted from the output value of each sensor is registered. For example, in batch processing, the timing may be defined by a step indicating a processing stage in each process, a specific period, a time point, etc. In addition, in continuous processing, it may be defined by a sampling interval, etc. as shown in FIG. 7. In the row of threshold, a threshold that is a criterion for judging an anomaly in each anomaly judgment method is registered. The threshold may include, for example, an upper limit and a lower limit. As described above, the knowledge base defines a combination of causal relationships between a causal event and an effect that is a modulation of process data caused by the causal event. In addition, the combination of causal relationships can be expressed in a tree format in which the modulation that appears as an effect is the root, the assumed cause is the leaf, and the events that appear in the process from the cause to the modulation are connected in a hierarchical manner along a time series.

[0032] The knowledge base is prepared in advance by a user based on, for example, HAZOP (Hazard and Operability Study). HAZOP is a method for comprehensively listing, in association with each other, the detection means at the monitoring points of the instrumentation devices constituting the plant, the control range (upper and lower limit thresholds, which are alarm setting points), deviations from the control range (abnormality, modulation), enumeration of assumed causes of deviations from the control range, logic (detection means) for determining which assumed cause caused the deviation, the influence of the deviation, measures to be taken when the deviation occurs, and actions for the measures. The knowledge base may be prepared based on, in addition to HAZOP, FTA (Fault Tree Analysis), FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis), ETA (Event Tree Analysis), or methods based on these, methods similar to these, contents extracted from the results of interviews with operators, and contents extracted from work standards and technical standards. In this embodiment, anomaly detection is performed based on parameters that are considered to have a causal relationship in the knowledge base.

[0033] Based on the information set in the above table, the abnormal modulation cause identification device 1 extracts data at a predetermined timing from the process data acquired from the plant 3, and performs abnormality judgment by a predetermined method. FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a logic tree showing the relationship between the modulation and its cause. The logic tree can be created based on the knowledge base shown in FIG. 9. In addition, in the logic tree of FIG. 10, events that are upstream in the production process and early in the time series are arranged on the left side, and events that are downstream in the production process and subsequent in the time series are arranged on the right side, and are connected in a hierarchical manner with arrows from the assumed cause to the modulation that appears as an influence. In addition, in the logic tree, if there are multiple assumed causes for one modulation in the knowledge base table, the branches are connected, and events that commonly appear in the process from the assumed cause to the modulation are displayed as a bundle. The thick solid line rectangles located at the upstream end of each branch correspond to the assumed causes in the knowledge base table, and correspond to the numbers in parentheses in FIG. 9 and FIG. 10. In addition, the thin solid line rectangles correspond to the influences in the knowledge base table, and represent events that can be observed by the process data. For each of these effects, a calculation is performed according to the calculation method defined in the knowledge base table. Also, for each assumed cause, a model including a formula for performing the above calculation is defined, and the model can be used to detect anomalies or their precursors and to assist in identifying their causes.

[0034] <Calculation method> The above calculation may include, for example, the following techniques: Furthermore, the abnormal modulation cause identifying device 1 may display the results of these calculations.

[0035] Hotelling method (T 2 law) For example, assuming that a plurality of process data obtained from one sensor follows a predetermined probability density function, the population mean and standard deviation are estimated from the sample mean and sample standard deviation calculated using the process data. The predetermined probability density function is, for example, a normal distribution. Then, the degree of anomaly is calculated based on the distance from the population mean to the process data to be verified. For example, the degree of anomaly is determined based on the square of the Mahalanobis distance. Note that the instantaneous value of the process data itself may be used, or the degree of anomaly based on the Hotelling theory may be calculated using the maximum value, minimum value, integral value, standard deviation, or differential coefficient (slope) of the process data in a predetermined period. According to the Hotelling method, outliers from a predetermined standard can be detected.

[0036] ·K nearest neighbors method For example, time-series process data obtained from one or more sensors is vectorized or converted into a matrix, and the distance between the data is calculated. The distance may be Euclidean distance, Mahalanobis distance, or Manhattan distance. Then, the degree of anomaly is judged according to the distance from the data to be verified to the kth closest data. In the k-nearest neighbor method, the judgment is based on the relationship with other data. Therefore, for example, in a case where normal values ​​can be classified into multiple clusters, it is possible to detect outliers that are far from any of the multiple clusters.

[0037] ·DTW(Dynamic Time Wrapping) Barycenter Averaging Based on a plurality of time series data such as process data in different batch processes, average time series data can be calculated. For example, for process data with different serial numbers in corresponding sections in the batch processes, the distance from the average time series data can be calculated. FIG. 11 is a diagram for explaining the synchronization process of the process data. For each value that is an element included in the time series data of the batch processes with different serial numbers, the shortest distance between the values ​​included in the different time series data is calculated in a brute force manner, and the time series data is slid in the time axis direction to align them so that the integrated value of the shortest distance is minimized. That is, based on the similarity of the time series data, a plurality of time series data are synchronized. In this way, a plurality of process data can be displayed overlapping each other so that the steps in the process performed in the plant 3 correspond on the time series. Then, based on the integrated value of the distance between the synchronized time series data, the degree of anomaly is calculated by the k-nearest neighbor method or the Hotelling's theory. According to the DTW Barycenter Averaging, an anomaly can be detected based on the degree of similarity between the time series data.

[0038] The degree of anomaly may be calculated with a positive or negative sign for deviation from a standard such as an average. FIG. 12 is a diagram for explaining an example of calculating the degree of anomaly for time series data according to the magnitude of the distance from the standard. FIG. 13 is a diagram for explaining an example of calculating the degree of anomaly for the same time series data according to the distance from the standard, taking into account the positive and negative directions. In each case, the vertical axis represents, for example, the degree of deviation from the average. In the portion shown by the dashed rectangle, modulation actually occurs, but it is difficult to detect it only from the values ​​shown in the example of FIG. 12. On the other hand, in the example of FIG. 13, a tendency for deviation in the positive and negative directions is shown, making it easy to detect the modulation.

[0039] For example, in the above-mentioned Hotelling method, the degree of deviation from the standard is calculated as a positive or negative signed value without squaring the distance, thereby calculating the degree of anomaly as shown in Fig. 13. In DTW Barycenter Averaging and the like, the positive or negative sign is determined for characteristic points such as maximum values ​​in time-series data, for example, by the following formula, and the calculated value is multiplied by the magnitude of the distance. Sign determination formula = (μ-x) / |μ-x| Here, μ is the average value (reference value) of the training data, and x is the process data to be verified. In this way, according to the sign determination formula, a sign indicating the direction of deviation from the reference at a given time point in time can be determined according to the magnitude relationship between the reference value at the given time point in the time series data and the process data to be verified at the corresponding time point. In addition, by using a signed value indicating the degree of deviation from the reference, it is possible to obtain the degree of anomaly as shown in FIG. 13, and to suppress false detection. In addition to the maximum value, the minimum value, the difference between the process data at a certain time point and the process data at another time point, etc. may be used as a characteristic point in the time series data.

[0040] Autoencoder FIG. 14 is a diagram for explaining anomaly detection using an autoencoder. In this method, anomaly judgment is performed based on the characteristics of the relationship between process data from multiple sensors. Specifically, a neural network is used to create a model that can compress (encode) and restore (decode) input data using, for example, process data of continuous processing or batch processing itself as input data as a teacher value. In the neural network, for example, the number of nodes in the input layer and output layer corresponds to the number of sensors, and the number of nodes in the intermediate layer is less than the number of sensors. Information input to the input layer is compressed in the intermediate layer and restored in the output layer. Note that there may be multiple intermediate layers, and the connection structure between layers is not limited to full connection. Then, learning processing is performed using normal process data as training data, and a model is created in which parameters are adjusted so that the difference between the value of the input layer and the value of the output layer is small. In addition, in the anomaly judgment processing, the process data to be verified is input, and the degree of anomaly is calculated according to the difference between the value of the input layer and the value of the output layer. That is, when process data with an abnormality is input, the information compressed in the intermediate layer cannot be properly restored in the output layer, and the difference between the values ​​of the input layer and the output layer becomes large, and anomaly detection can be performed based on this difference. An autoencoder can detect anomalies based on the characteristics of the relationships between output values ​​of multiple sensors.

[0041] Graphical Lasso For example, the dependency between variables is quantified based on the covariance matrix of process data from multiple sensors in continuous processing or batch processing, and is expressed as a sparse graph that serves as a reference. Under normal circumstances, it can be determined that the dependency between variables does not deviate significantly from the reference. In anomaly determination processing, the dependency between variables is obtained using the process data to be verified, and the degree of anomaly is calculated according to the magnitude of the difference from the above-mentioned reference. With the Graphical Lasso, the correlation between process data can be quantified, and the degree of anomaly can be detected based on the breakdown of the relationship.

[0042] Other general anomaly detection methods or methods based on these may be used. In addition, the threshold value used for anomaly detection in each method may be searched for using process data actually obtained during the operation of the plant 3, so as to minimize erroneous judgments during normal times and to quickly detect the occurrence of an anomaly or its sign during an anomaly, and the searched value may be registered in the knowledge base shown in FIG.

[0043] <Device configuration> FIG. 15 is a block diagram showing an example of the configuration of the abnormal modulation cause identifying device 1. The abnormal modulation cause identifying device 1 is a general computer, and includes a communication interface (I / F) 11, a storage device 12, an input / output device 13, and a processor 14. The communication I / F 11 may be, for example, a network card or a communication module, and communicates with other computers based on a predetermined protocol. The storage device 12 may be a main storage device such as a random access memory (RAM) or a read only memory (ROM), and an auxiliary storage device (secondary storage device) such as a hard disk drive (HDD), a solid state drive (SSD), or a flash memory. The main storage device temporarily stores a program read by the processor 14 and information transmitted / received between the processor 14 and other computers, and secures a working area for the processor 14. The auxiliary storage device stores a program executed by the processor 14, information transmitted / received between the processor 14 and other computers, and the like. The input / output device 13 is, for example, a user interface such as an input device such as a keyboard or a mouse, an output device such as a monitor, or an input / output device such as a touch panel. The processor 14 is an arithmetic processing device such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit), and executes a program to perform each process according to the present embodiment. In the example of Fig. 15, functional blocks are shown in the processor 14. That is, the processor 14 executes a predetermined program to function as a process data acquisition unit 141, a preprocessing unit 142, a learning processing unit 143, an abnormality determination unit 144, a cause diagnosis unit 145, and an output control unit 146.

[0044] The process data acquiring unit 141 acquires process data from a sensor provided in the plant 3 via, for example, the communication I / F 11 and the control station 2, and stores the process data in the storage device 12. As described above, the process data is associated with the sensor by a tag.

[0045] The pre-processing unit 142 processes the process data when creating an anomaly detection model. For example, the pre-processing unit 142 links the process data with a serial number. That is, based on the above-mentioned traceability information previously stored in the storage device 12, the pre-processing unit 142 links the process data corresponding to a predetermined tag, system, and serial number in the batch processing with the process data corresponding to a predetermined tag in the continuous processing and output at a predetermined timing. In addition, based on the setting value of a table such as a knowledge base, data for a predetermined period used for anomaly judgment is extracted, and a feature amount according to each method is calculated. In addition, in the learning process, the pre-processing unit 142 may perform data cleansing to extract training data by removing data during a non-steady operation period, data when an anomaly occurs, and outliers such as noise.

[0046] The learning processing unit 143 creates an anomaly detection model including one or more operations based on, for example, a knowledge base, and stores the model in the storage device 12. At this time, the learning processing unit 143 determines parameters that have learned the characteristics of the training data. When performing the learning process using output values ​​from multiple sensors, normalization may be performed as appropriate.

[0047] The anomaly determination unit 144 calculates the degree of anomaly using the process data and the anomaly detection model. That is, in the learning process, the anomaly determination unit 144 calculates the degree of anomaly using test data for cross-validation and the anomaly detection model. In addition, in the anomaly determination process, the anomaly determination unit 144 calculates the degree of anomaly using process data acquired from the plant 3.

[0048] The cause diagnosis unit 145 calculates the probability (degree of certainty) of each of the multiple assumed causes using the calculated degree of abnormality. The probability is calculated based on the ratio or degree of influence appearing in the process data among the influences associated with each assumed cause in the knowledge base, using the degree of abnormality calculated by the abnormality determination unit, for example. In addition, actions representing measures to be taken against the cause may be stored in the storage device 12 in association with each assumed cause, so that the actions can be presented to the user.

[0049] The output control unit 146 issues an alarm when an abnormality is detected, or outputs the degree of occurrence of each assumed cause, for example, via the input / output device 13. The output control unit 146 is connected to the above-mentioned components via the bus 15 as appropriate in response to a user's operation. For convenience, one device shown in Fig. 15 includes the process data acquisition unit 141, the preprocessing unit 142, the learning processing unit 143, the abnormality determination unit 144, the cause diagnosis unit 145, and the output control unit 146, but at least some of the functions may be distributed and provided in different devices.

[0050] <Learning process> FIG. 16 is a process flow diagram showing an example of the learning process executed by the abnormal modulation cause identifying device 1. The processor 14 of the abnormal modulation cause identifying device 1 executes a predetermined program to execute the process shown in FIG. 16. The learning process is executed at any timing using process data obtained by past operation of the plant 3. The learning process mainly includes pre-processing (FIG. 16: S1), model construction process (S2), and verification process (S3). That is, a part of the process data may be used as training data, and the rest may be used as test data, and cross-validation may be performed. Note that the above-mentioned tables and the like are created by a user and stored in the storage device 12 in advance. For convenience, the pre-processing, learning process, and verification process are described in one process flow shown in FIG. 16, but at least a part of the pre-processing, verification process, etc. may be distributed and executed in different devices.

[0051] The process data acquisition unit 141 of the abnormal modulation cause identifying device 1 acquires process data (FIG. 16: S11). In this step, data used for the abnormality detection model is extracted from the process data as shown in FIG. 3 and FIG. 6. The process data is stored in the storage device 12 in a file of a predetermined format such as OPC data, a so-called database table, CSV, etc. The process data also includes attributes such as date and time, tags, etc., and may further include attributes such as serial number, step, etc., particularly in the case of batch processing process data.

[0052] Furthermore, the pre-processing unit 142 of the abnormal modulation cause identifying device 1 links the process data of the continuous processing with the serial numbers (FIG. 16: S12). In this step, as shown in FIG. 8, the process data acquired in the continuous process is associated with the group of serial numbers of the process data acquired in the batch processing, and the process data used in the calculation of the degree of abnormality is associated. That is, in the knowledge base shown in FIG. 9 and the logic tree shown in FIG. 11, when a certain cause affects both the process data of the batch processing and the process data of the continuous processing, the degree of abnormality and the degree of establishment are calculated based on the data linked in this step.

[0053] Then, the pre-processing unit 142 extracts and processes data to be used in the anomaly determination model (FIG. 16: S13). In this step, the pre-processing unit 142 extracts data for a predetermined period to be used for anomaly determination based on the setting values ​​of a table such as a knowledge base, and calculates feature amounts according to each method.

[0054] For example, when calculating the degree of anomaly using the Hotelling method, the preprocessing unit 142 extracts process data at a predetermined timing or period, calculates instantaneous values, which are the process data itself, maximum values, minimum values, integral values, or differences of the process data, integral values ​​of reaction rates, and differential coefficients at predetermined times, and stores them in the storage device 12. When calculating the degree of anomaly using the k-nearest neighbor method, the time-series process data is vectorized or converted into a matrix. When calculating the degree of anomaly using DTW Barycenter Averaging, a synchronization process is performed on multiple process data to obtain average time-series data. When calculating the degree of anomaly using an autoencoder or graphical lasso, a synchronization process is performed on multiple process data.

[0055] The pre-processing unit 142 may perform a predetermined data cleansing process on the process data. The data cleansing process is a process for removing outliers, and various methods can be adopted. For example, a moving average value may be calculated using the most recent data. Also, the difference between the moving average value and the actual measurement value is taken to obtain a standard deviation σ that represents the variation in the difference. Then, values ​​that do not fall within a predetermined confidence interval, such as the interval from the mean value of the probability distribution -3σ to the mean value of the probability distribution +3σ (also called the 3σ interval), may be excluded. Similarly, values ​​that do not fall within the 3σ interval may be excluded for the difference between the actual measurement values ​​before and after.

[0056] After that, the learning processing unit 143 of the abnormal modulation cause identification device 1 performs an anomaly detection model construction process (FIG. 16: S2). In this step, an anomaly detection model including an anomaly degree calculation is created based on the knowledge base shown in FIG. 9. Specifically, for one or more "effects" associated with each of the "assumed causes" in FIG. 9, the anomaly degrees are calculated by the methods registered in the "calculation method", and an anomaly detection model represented by a combination of anomaly degrees is created. In addition, the learning processing unit 143 adjusts the parameters of the model using training data depending on the anomaly detection method. For example, when calculating the anomaly degree using an autoencoder, the weight coefficient between layers is adjusted so that the information of the input process data can be restored after being compressed. When calculating the anomaly degree using a graphical lasso, the dependency between variables is quantified based on the covariance matrix of the process data from multiple sensors. Then, the learning processing unit 143 stores the created anomaly detection model in the storage device 12.

[0057] The anomaly determination unit 144 of the abnormal modulation cause identification device 1 calculates the degree of anomaly using the created anomaly detection model and the test data (FIG. 16: S31). In this step, the anomaly determination unit 144 calculates the degree of anomaly according to the method of calculating the degree of anomaly. For example, when calculating the degree of anomaly by the Hotelling method, the process data is used to estimate the sample mean and sample standard deviation of the population, and the degree of anomaly is calculated based on the distance from the population mean to the process data to be verified. When calculating the degree of anomaly by the k-nearest neighbor method, the distance between data is calculated, and the degree of anomaly is calculated according to the distance from the data to be verified to the k-th closest data. When calculating the degree of anomaly by DTW Barycenter Averaging, the degree of anomaly is calculated by the k-nearest neighbor method or the Hotelling theory based on the integrated value of the distance between the time series data synchronized in the preprocessing. When calculating the degree of anomaly by an autoencoder, the process data to be verified is input to the autoencoder, and the degree of anomaly is calculated according to the difference between the value of the input layer and the value of the output layer. When calculating the degree of anomaly by the Graphical Lasso, the process data to be verified is used to find the dependency between variables, and the degree of anomaly is calculated according to the magnitude of the difference from the reference dependency.

[0058] The cause diagnosis unit 145 of the abnormal modulation cause identifying device 1 calculates the degree of validity of the assumed cause using the calculated abnormality degree (FIG. 16: S32). In this step, the degree of validity is calculated for each assumed cause in the knowledge base based on the rate at which the corresponding modulation appears as an influence. For example, three influences, namely, an increase in moisture of tag 002, an increase in temperature 1 of tag 004, and a decrease in temperature 2 of tag 005, are associated with the cause (2) in FIG. 9. Using the abnormality degree calculated for each influence in S31 in FIG. 16, the rate of the three influences whose abnormality degree exceeds a threshold value may be determined as the degree of validity. If the abnormality degree of two of the three influences exceeds a threshold value, for example, the degree of validity may be 66.7%. In addition, in the calculation of the degree of validity, weighting may be further performed according to the type of influence (tag) or based on the magnitude of the abnormality degree. For example, the degree of validity may be calculated by multiplying each influence by a weight and then calculating the sum.

[0059] In addition, the output control unit 146 outputs the degree of anomaly calculated in S31 and the degree of validity calculated in S32 so that the user can evaluate the created model (FIG. 16: S33). In this step, cross-validation is performed using test data that is different from the training data used to build the model, among the process data collected in the past operation of the plant 3. In this step, it is verified whether the anomaly is appropriately detected and an alarm or an action to deal with it is output by also using the process data at the time when an anomaly occurred in the past. In addition, the learning processing unit 143 judges whether the anomaly can be detected with sufficient accuracy (FIG. 16: S4). If it is judged that the accuracy is not sufficient (S4: NO), the threshold value registered in the knowledge base (in other words, the normal range of the process data) is corrected so that the anomaly can be appropriately detected, and the processing from S31 onwards is repeated. If it is judged in S4 that the anomaly can be detected with sufficient accuracy (S4: YES), the operation is performed using the anomaly detection model and threshold value created in S2. Note that at least a part of the judgment in S4 may be made by the user.

[0060] As for the actions, for example, actions to be taken by an operator of the plant 3 to deal with the assumed cause are associated with the assumed cause and are stored in advance in the storage device 12. FIG. 17 is a diagram showing an example of an action table. The table in FIG. 17 includes attributes of cause, action 1, and action 2. In the cause field, a cause corresponding to the assumed cause in the knowledge base is registered. In the action 1 and action 2 fields, information indicating measures to be taken by an operator of the plant 3 to eliminate the corresponding cause is registered.

[0061] <Anomaly detection processing> FIG. 18 is a process flow diagram showing an example of an abnormality detection process executed by the abnormality modulation cause identifying device 1. The processor 14 of the abnormality modulation cause identifying device 1 executes a predetermined program to execute the process shown in FIG. 18. The abnormality detection process is executed almost in real time using process data obtained by the operation of the plant 3. The abnormality detection process mainly includes pre-processing (FIG. 18: S10), model readout process (S20), and abnormality determination process (S30). In FIG. 18, the same reference numerals are given to steps corresponding to the learning process shown in FIG. 16, and the following description will focus on differences from the learning process. For convenience, the description will be given as a process performed by the same device as the device performing the learning process, but the device performing the abnormality detection process may be different from the device performing the learning process. In addition, it is assumed that tables such as an abnormality detection model, thresholds, and knowledge base created in the learning process are stored in the storage device 12 in advance.

[0062] The process data acquisition unit 141 of the abnormal modulation cause identification device 1 acquires process data (FIG. 18: S11). The process data is assumed to be stored in the storage device 12 in a file of a predetermined format such as OPC data, a so-called database table, CSV, etc. This step is almost the same as S11 of FIG. 16, but data related to a process in operation in the plant 3 is acquired. In addition, the pre-processing unit 142 of the abnormal modulation cause identification device 1 links the process data of the continuous processing with the manufacturing number (FIG. 18: S12). This step is the same as S12 of FIG. 16. Then, the pre-processing unit 142 extracts and processes data to be used in the abnormality judgment model (FIG. 18: S13). This step is almost the same as S13 of FIG. 16, but data cleansing is not required.

[0063] Thereafter, the abnormality determination unit 144 of the abnormal modulation cause identifying apparatus 1 reads out the abnormality detection model created in the learning process from the storage device 12 (FIG. 18: S20). The abnormality determination unit 144 also calculates the degree of abnormality using the created abnormality detection model and process data obtained by the operation of the plant 3 (FIG. 18: S31). This step is the same as S31 in FIG. 16. The cause diagnosis unit 145 of the abnormal modulation cause identifying apparatus 1 also determines the degree of establishment of the assumed cause using the calculated degree of abnormality (FIG. 18: S32). This step is the same as S32 in FIG. 16.

[0064] Furthermore, the output control unit 146 outputs the degree of abnormality calculated in S31 and the degree of establishment calculated in S32, and issues an alarm if either degree of abnormality exceeds a predetermined threshold (FIG. 18: S303). In this step, the process data indicating the operating state of the plant 3, the degree of abnormality, and the degree of establishment of the assumed cause are presented to the user via the input / output device 13.

[0065] FIG. 19 is a diagram showing an example of a screen output to the input / output device 13. FIG. 19 is an example of a main control chart, and shows the transition of individual process data in a line graph. An area 131 displayed on the input / output device 13 displays a plurality of combinations of identification information of process data acquired from the plant 3 and the latest value. The control chart in the area 132 shows the transition of values ​​for specific process data in a line graph. The vertical axis shows the value of the process data, and the horizontal axis shows the time axis. In the example of FIG. 19, the solid line shows the true value, and the dashed line shows the estimated value. The true value is the process data itself for which the degree of abnormality is to be calculated, and the estimated value may be an estimated value obtained by regression analysis of the process data for which the degree of abnormality is to be calculated. The thin dashed line shows the upper and lower limits of the normal range (in other words, the threshold value for detecting an abnormality). As shown in a balloon in FIG. 19, when a user operates the input / output device 13 such as a pointing device to move a pointer on the graph, the numerical value of the process data at the time indicated by the pointer may be displayed. The cause-effect diagram in the area 133 displays the cause of the modulation of the process data displayed in the area 132 or a tag that can identify it on the horizontal axis, and the degree of validity of the cause is shown by a bar graph on the vertical axis. The higher the degree of validity, the higher the possibility of the cause being the cause of the modulation of the process data. The degree of validity is calculated by the cause diagnosis unit 145 based on the degree of abnormality calculated by the abnormality determination unit 144 for the event assumed to be the cause of the modulation of the process data. The user can recognize the candidate cause of the modulation and its degree of probability based on the degree of validity, and can easily identify the cause of the modulation. When the "Diagnosis" button in the area 134 is pressed, the abnormality determination unit 144 calculates the degree of abnormality at the specified time or the current time, and the cause-effect diagram is displayed by the output control unit 146. When the user operates the input / output device 13 such as a pointing device and selects one of the bar graphs in the cause-effect diagram, the cause of the modulation corresponding to the bar graph is highlighted in the logic tree.

[0066] FIG. 20 is a diagram showing another example of a screen output to the input / output device 13 by the output control unit 146. FIG. 20 is an example of a tree diagram, and a logic tree as shown in FIG. 10 is displayed. For example, when the bar graph of tag 004 is selected in FIG. 19, the influence corresponding to the process data of tag 004 is highlighted on the logic tree. The highlighting is performed by changing the display mode, for example, by changing the color or the line type. In FIG. 20, the corresponding rectangle is hatched. Moreover, the thick rectangle connected to the upstream side of the logic tree represents the assumed cause of the influence. Each cause may be displayed as shown in a balloon in FIG. 20, or the influence on the process data other than the cause may be displayed. Note that the establishment degree of each cause calculated in S32 of FIG. 18 may be further displayed, or an action may be further displayed. Moreover, the cause may be displayed when the user moves the pointer over each rectangle.

[0067] 19 and 20, the process trend of each tag listed in the cause-effect diagram may be displayed, and in particular, the process trend of a tag for which the cause of the modulation can be identified may be displayed. The process trend is calculated using the process data stored in the storage device 12, and is plotted on a graph for each period, such as a predetermined time, a predetermined number of days, a predetermined number of months, or a season.

[0068] The output control unit 146 may also be configured to output a log of the degree of abnormality when the degree of abnormality calculated by each calculation method exceeds a predetermined threshold. Also, the output control unit 146 may be configured to output a log of the assumed cause and the degree of establishment. Each log may be output in association with the date and time, the serial number, the calculation method, the abnormality detection model, etc., to facilitate the analysis of the abnormal modulation.

[0069] <Modification> Each configuration and their combinations in each embodiment are merely examples, and addition, omission, substitution, and other modifications of the configurations are possible as appropriate within the scope of the present invention. The present disclosure is not limited by the embodiments, but is limited only by the scope of the claims. In addition, each aspect disclosed in this specification can be combined with any other feature disclosed in this specification.

[0070] In addition, although the above embodiment has been described with a chemical plant as an example, the present invention can be applied to a manufacturing process in a general production facility. For example, a lot number may be used as a processing unit instead of the manufacturing number of the batch process in the embodiment, and a process similar to the batch process in the embodiment may be applied.

[0071] At least a part of the functions of the abnormal modulation cause identifying device 1 may be distributed to multiple devices, or the same functions may be provided in parallel by multiple devices. Also, at least a part of the functions of the abnormal modulation cause identifying device 1 may be provided on a so-called cloud.

[0072] The present disclosure also includes a method and a computer program for executing the above-mentioned processes, and a computer-readable recording medium having the program recorded thereon. The recording medium having the program recorded thereon enables the above-mentioned processes by causing a computer to execute the program.

[0073] Here, a computer-readable recording medium refers to a recording medium that stores information such as data and programs through electrical, magnetic, optical, mechanical, or chemical action and can be read by a computer. Among such recording media, those that can be removed from a computer include flexible disks, magneto-optical disks, optical disks, magnetic tapes, memory cards, etc. Furthermore, recording media that are fixed to a computer include HDDs, SSDs (Solid State Drives), ROMs, etc. [Explanation of symbols]

[0074] 1: Abnormal modulation cause identification device 11: Communication I / F 12: Storage device 13: Input / output devices 14: Processor 141: Process data acquisition unit 142: Preprocessing section 143: Learning processing unit 144: Abnormality determination section 145: Cause Diagnosis Department 146: Output control section 2: Control Station 3: Plant

Claims

1. a process data acquisition unit that reads out process data from a storage device that stores process data continuously output by a plurality of sensors provided in the production equipment; an abnormality determination unit that calculates an abnormality degree that indicates a degree of modulation of the process data read by the process data acquisition unit; a cause diagnosing unit that uses causal relationship information that defines, in a hierarchical manner along a time series, a combination of causal relationships between a cause and a modulation of the process data output by the plurality of sensors that appears as an effect resulting from the cause, to determine whether or not the degree of anomaly calculated by the anomaly determining unit for the process data output by the plurality of sensors satisfies a predetermined criterion; Equipped with the causal relationship information is defined in a hierarchical manner from a modulation in an upstream process to a modulation in a downstream process among the production processes performed by the production equipment; The process data used to calculate the degree of abnormality among the process data that is continuously output is defined by a timing, a period, or an interval in the production process. Device for identifying the cause of abnormal modulation.

2. The abnormality determination unit calculates an abnormality degree according to whether a direction of deviation from a predetermined standard is positive or negative. The abnormal modulation cause identifying device according to claim 1 .

3. The abnormality determination unit calculates an abnormality degree for at least a portion of the maximum and minimum values ​​of the process data, depending on whether a direction of deviation from a predetermined standard is positive or negative. The abnormal modulation cause identifying device according to claim 2 .

4. The abnormality determination unit calculates an abnormality degree using a value extracted from the process data read by the process data acquisition unit based on a timing, a period, or an interval defined by the causal relationship information. The abnormal modulation cause identifying device according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

5. The abnormality determination unit uses a neural network model that compresses and restores values ​​of process data output from a plurality of sensors included in a predetermined combination, Calculate the degree of anomaly according to the difference between the input and output of the network model The abnormal modulation cause identifying device according to any one of claims 1 to 4.

6. A pre-processing unit is further provided which calculates an average value, a maximum value, a minimum value, a slope, or a standard deviation for a predetermined period of time for the process data read by the process data acquisition unit, The abnormality determination unit calculates the degree of abnormality using the value calculated by the preprocessing unit. The abnormal modulation cause identifying device according to any one of claims 1 to 5.

7. The causal relationship information is created by analyzing the causal relationship between the cause and the modulation by HAZOP (Hazard and Operability Study), FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis), FTA (Fault Tree Analysis), ETA (Event Tree Analysis), or an analysis method based on any of these. The abnormal modulation cause identifying device according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

8. Reading out process data from a storage device that stores process data continuously output by a plurality of sensors provided in the production equipment; Calculating an anomaly level that indicates the degree of modulation of the read process data; Using causal relationship information that defines a combination of causal relationships between a cause and a modulation of the process data output by the plurality of sensors that appears as an effect resulting from the cause in a hierarchical manner along a time series, it is determined whether a calculated degree of anomaly for the process data output by the plurality of sensors satisfies a predetermined criterion. The computer executes the process, the causal relationship information is defined in a hierarchical manner from a modulation in an upstream process to a modulation in a downstream process among the production processes performed by the production equipment; The process data used to calculate the degree of abnormality among the process data that is continuously output is defined by a timing, a period, or an interval in the production process. Method for identifying the cause of abnormal modulation.

9. Reading out process data from a storage device that stores process data continuously output by a plurality of sensors provided in the production equipment; Calculating an anomaly level that indicates the degree of modulation of the read process data; Using causal relationship information that defines a combination of causal relationships between a cause and a modulation of the process data output by the plurality of sensors that appears as an effect resulting from the cause in a hierarchical manner along a time series, it is determined whether a calculated degree of anomaly for the process data output by the plurality of sensors satisfies a predetermined criterion. The process is executed by a computer, the causal relationship information is defined in a hierarchical manner from a modulation in an upstream process to a modulation in a downstream process among the production processes performed by the production equipment; The process data used to calculate the degree of abnormality among the process data that is continuously output is defined by a timing, a period, or an interval in the production process. Program to identify the cause of abnormal modulation.

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