Onion harvest information prediction method and onion harvest information prediction program

Abstract

To provide an onion harvest information prediction method and onion harvest information prediction program for easily predicting onion harvest information.SOLUTION: An onion harvest information prediction method causes a computer to execute processing of: receiving an input of information of actual measurement values and periods of leaf-sheath base diameters or stalk bulb diameters of onions S10; specifying a cumulative temperature from a planting time corresponding to the actual measurement period as a cumulative temperature corresponding to the actual measurement value, and using the actual measurement value and the cumulative temperature corresponding to the actual measurement value to specify a first expression representing a relation between a cumulative temperature and the stalk bulb diameters after the bulb starts to enlarge S13; and using the first expression to specify the stalk bulb diameter when reaching the predetermined cumulative temperature of a harvest time S26.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 13

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a method for predicting onion harvest information and an onion harvest information prediction program.

Background Art

[0002] In recent years, onion cultivation has been spreading in the Tohoku region. However, due to the large area of the Tohoku region with diverse weather conditions and the lack of experience among producers as it is a new production area, stable production is difficult. Therefore, it is preferable to be able to grasp the harvest time and harvest volume for each production area in advance before cultivation and formulate a planting plan.

[0003] Conventionally, the harvest date and harvest volume of onions have been predicted by considering the weather conditions of the production area in the cultivation calendar based on the results of cultivation tests (planting time, variety, planting density, average yield, etc.) conducted by public research institutions or JA near the onion production area.

[0004] On the other hand, recently, although for some vegetable varieties, efforts have been made to predict the yield using a growth model from past weather and growth data (see, for example, Patent Document 1, etc.).

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0005]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0006] In the above-described prediction method based on the results of past cultivation tests, it is difficult to cope with deviations due to abnormal weather in recent years, new production areas, and new cultivation types, and it is necessary to conduct cultivation tests and create a cultivation calendar for each. Also, although the estimation accuracy of the harvest date and harvest volume in the area including the location where the cultivation test was conducted is high, the estimation accuracy decreases when the soil and weather conditions are different.

[0007] In addition, the method of predicting the yield using the growth model requires input of a huge amount of data and is complicated.

[0008] Therefore, an object of the present invention is to provide a method for predicting onion harvest information and an onion harvest information prediction program that can easily predict onion harvest information.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0009] The onion harvest information prediction method of the present invention receives input of the measured value of the basal diameter of the onion leaf sheath or the bulb diameter of the pseudostem and information on the measurement time, specifies the accumulated temperature from the planting time corresponding to the measurement time as the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value, and uses the measured value and the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value to specify a first formula showing the relationship between the accumulated temperature after the pseudostem starts to hypertrophy and the bulb diameter of the pseudostem, and uses the first formula to specify the bulb diameter of the pseudostem when reaching a predetermined accumulated temperature at the time of harvest. It is an onion harvest information prediction method in which a computer executes processing.

Effects of the Invention

[0010] The onion harvest information prediction method and the onion harvest information prediction program of the present invention have the effect of being able to easily predict onion harvest information.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0011]

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Mode for Carrying Out the Invention

[0012] 《First Embodiment》 Hereinafter, the onion harvest information prediction method according to the first embodiment will be described in detail.

[0013] FIG. 1 schematically shows the configuration of the harvest information prediction system according to the first embodiment. The harvest information prediction system 100 of the present embodiment is a system for a producer cultivating onions to confirm when to plant, when the harvest date (optimal harvest time) arrives, what size the bulb diameter of the onion stem will be at that time, and what the yield will be at a certain cultivation location when formulating an onion planting plan and a shipping plan.

[0014] As shown in FIG. 1, the harvest information prediction system 100 includes a server 10 and a user terminal 70. The server 10 and the user terminal 70 are connected to a network 80 such as the Internet.

[0015] The server 10 is an information processing device installed in a data center or the like. Using environmental information (average values, past data, predicted data, etc.) of the location where onions are cultivated (cultivation location) and information input from the user terminal 70, it estimates the harvest date of onions at the cultivation location, the size of the onion bulbs (bulb diameter) on the harvest date, and the yield, and outputs the estimation results to the user terminal 70.

[0016] FIG. 2(a) shows the hardware configuration of the server 10. As shown in FIG. 2(a), the server 10 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 90 as a computer, a ROM (Read Only Memory) 92, a RAM (Random Access Memory) 94, a storage unit (such as an HDD (Hard Disk Drive) or an SSD (Solid State Drive)) 96, a network interface 97, and a drive 99 for a portable storage medium, etc. Each component of these configurations of the server 10 is connected to a bus 98. In the server 10, the CPU 90 executes a program (including a harvest information prediction program) stored in the ROM 92 or the storage unit 96, or a program (including a harvest information prediction program) read by the drive 99 for a portable storage medium from the portable storage medium 91, whereby the functions of each part shown in FIG. 3 are realized. Note that the functions of each part in FIG. 3 may be realized by an integrated circuit such as an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) or an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array). Details of each part in FIG. 3 will be described later.

[0017] The user terminal 70 is a terminal such as a PC (Personal Computer) that can be used by producers or the like. It receives the input of crop biological information by producers or the like and transmits it to the server 10, or receives the estimation result of the server 10 and displays it. The user terminal 70 has a hardware configuration as shown in Fig. 2(b). Specifically, as shown in Fig. 2(b), the user terminal 70 includes a CPU 190, a ROM 192, a RAM 194, a storage unit (such as an HDD) 196, a network interface 197, a display unit 193, an input unit 195, and a portable storage medium drive 199 capable of reading a portable storage medium 191. Each of these components of the user terminal 70 is connected to a bus 198. The display unit 193 includes a liquid crystal display or the like, and the input unit 195 includes a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, or the like.

[0018] Fig. 3 shows a functional block diagram of the server 10. As shown in Fig. 3, in the server 10, when the CPU 90 executes a program, functions as an input reception unit 20, an actual measurement value acquisition timing determination unit 22, a relationship formula specification unit before the start of bulb enlargement 24, a relationship formula specification unit after the start of bulb enlargement 26, a bulb diameter specification unit at the time of harvest 28, a bulb weight specification unit at the time of harvest 30, a yield estimation unit 32, a harvest date specification unit 34, and an output unit 36 are realized. In addition, Fig. 3 also shows a constant table 42 and a temperature DB 40 stored in the storage unit 96 or the like of the server 10.

[0019] The input reception unit 20 acquires the information input by producers or the like via the user terminal 70. The information input by producers or the like includes the location information of the field, the variety information of the onions being cultivated, the information of the planting date, the information of the planting density, and the like. In addition, the information input by producers or the like includes the result (actual measurement value) of the producers or the like measuring the leaf sheath base diameter or the bulb diameter of the bulb, and the information of the measurement date.

[0020] Here, in the constant table 42, various constants (for example, the constants shown in FIG. 6) are stored in association with the position of the field, the variety of onions, and the planting time (spring sowing or autumn sowing). The input reception unit 20 acquires the constants corresponding to the information input by the producer or the like from the constant table 42, and transfers them to the measured value acquisition time determination unit 22, the relationship formula specification unit 24 before the start of bulb enlargement, the relationship formula specification unit 26 after the start of bulb enlargement, the harvested bulb weight specification unit 30, and the harvest date specification unit 34.

[0021] The measured value acquisition time determination unit 22 determines whether the measured value input by the producer or the like is a measured value before the start of bulb enlargement or a measured value after the start of bulb enlargement.

[0022] FIG. 4 is a graph showing the relationship between the accumulated temperature from the time of planting (the integrated value of the daily average temperature) and the sizes of the sheath base diameter and the bulb diameter of the stem (sheath base diameter · bulb diameter) when a certain variety of onions is cultivated under predetermined conditions. The point where the two straight lines intersect in FIG. 4 indicates the start time of bulb enlargement. The sheath base diameter (Db) at the start of this enlargement is considered to be a constant determined by the variety, cultivation time, soil, etc.

[0023] Therefore, if the measured value is less than or equal to Db, the measured value acquisition time determination unit 22 determines that the measurement date is before the start of bulb enlargement, and if the sheath base diameter is larger than a predetermined value, it determines that the measurement date is after the start of bulb enlargement.

[0024] When the measurement date of the measured value is before the start of bulb enlargement, the relationship formula specification unit 24 before the start of enlargement specifies a second formula (referred to as the relationship formula before the start of enlargement) showing the relationship between the accumulated temperature and the sheath base diameter in the period before bulb enlargement based on the measured value and the accumulated temperature from the planting date on the measurement date.

[0025] The inventors have found that although the slopes indicating the changes in the bulb stem diameter of onions with respect to the changes in the accumulated temperature from the time of planting are significantly different before and after the start of bulb enlargement, each slope hardly changes even if the planting date is slightly different as long as the variety and the planting location are the same. That is, in FIG. 4, the slope a1 of the straight line during the period before the start of bulb enlargement (the ratio of the change in the size of the leaf sheath base diameter with respect to the change in the accumulated temperature) is determined by the variety, the cultivation period, the soil, etc., which means that the section is different depending on the planting date.

[0026] Therefore, the pre-bulb-enlargement relational expression specifying unit 24 obtains b1 by substituting the measured value for x and the accumulated temperature from the time of planting on the measurement date for y in the equation y = a1·x + b1, and specifies the pre-bulb-enlargement relational expression (y = a1·x + b1).

[0027] The post-bulb-enlargement relational expression specifying unit 26 specifies a first equation (referred to as the post-bulb-enlargement relational expression) showing the relationship between the accumulated temperature and the bulb diameter of the bulb stem during the period after the start of bulb enlargement.

[0028] The harvested bulb diameter specifying unit 28 regards the time when the accumulated temperature from the time of planting reaches a predetermined value (Thv described later) as the harvest time (optimal harvest period), and uses the post-bulb-enlargement relational expression specified by the post-bulb-enlargement relational expression specifying unit 26 to specify the bulb diameter of the bulb stem at the harvest time. Note that the value Thv is a value specific to the variety, the cultivation period, the soil, etc.

[0029] The harvested bulb weight specifying unit 30 specifies the harvested bulb weight at the harvest time from the following equation (1) using the bulb diameter of the bulb stem at the harvest time specified by the harvested bulb diameter specifying unit 28. Bulb weight = 4 / 3×π×(bulb diameter of the bulb stem / 2) 3 ×k …(1)

[0030] Note that the coefficient k in the above equation (1) is assumed to be a value determined in a prior cultivation test or the like.

[0031] The yield estimation unit 32 estimates the yield from the following equation (2) based on the harvested bulb weight at the harvest time and the planting density input by the producer or the like. Yield = weight of bulbous stems × planting density × commercial bulb rate...(2)

[0032] Note that the commercial bulb rate (the ratio of onions that can be sold as products among the harvested onions) is assumed to be a value determined by prior investigation.

[0033] The harvest date specifying unit 34 refers to the temperature DB 40 and specifies the day when the accumulated temperature from the time of planting reaches a predetermined value (Thv) as the harvest date. The harvest date specifying unit 34 specifies the day when the accumulated temperature from the planting date reaches a predetermined value (Thv) based on the past data and future prediction data of the temperature stored in the temperature DB 40.

[0034] The output unit 36 outputs the yield estimated by the yield estimation unit 32 and the information on the harvest date specified by the harvest date specifying unit 34 to the user terminal 70. As a result, information on the estimation results of the yield and the harvest date is displayed on the display unit 193 of the user terminal 70.

[0035] (Regarding the processing of the server 10) Hereinafter, regarding the processing of the server 10, it will be described in detail with reference to the flowchart of FIG. 5 and other drawings as appropriate.

[0036] In the process of FIG. 5, first, in step S10, the input reception unit 20 waits until there is an input from the user terminal 70. When the producer or the like inputs information in the user terminal 70, the process proceeds to step S12. Note that the information input by the producer or the like includes, as described above, the location information of the field, the information on the variety of onions being cultivated, the information on the planting date, the information on the planting density, the measured value of the sheath base diameter or the bulb diameter of the bulbous stem, and the information on the measurement date.

[0037] When shifting to step S12, the input reception unit 20 acquires the information input from the user terminal 70 and acquires a constant corresponding to the acquired information. For example, the input reception unit 20 refers to the constant table 42 and acquires constants a1, a2, Db, Thv as shown in FIG. 6 as constants corresponding to the acquired field position information, variety information, and planting date information. Note that the input reception unit 20 delivers the acquired constants to the measured value acquisition timing determination unit 22, the relational expression identification unit 24 before the start of hypertrophy, the relational expression identification unit 26 after the start of hypertrophy, the harvested bulb weight identification unit 30, and the harvest date identification unit 34.

[0038] Next, in step S14, the measured value acquisition timing determination unit 22 determines whether the timing at which the measured value is acquired is before or after the start of hypertrophy. Here, the measured value acquisition timing determination unit 22 determines whether the timing at which the measured value is acquired is before or after the start of hypertrophy based on whether the acquired measured value is larger or smaller than Db acquired in step S12.

[0039] Next, in step S16, the measured value acquisition timing determination unit 22 determines whether it is before the start of hypertrophy. For example, if the measured value is smaller than Db (= 17 mm), the determination in step S16 is affirmed and the process proceeds to step S18.

[0040] When shifting to step S18, the relational expression identification unit 24 before the start of hypertrophy identifies the relational expression before the start of hypertrophy from the measured value. Specifically, the relational expression identification unit 24 before the start of hypertrophy calculates the accumulated temperature from the planting date on the measurement date based on the past data of the air temperature DB40. Then, as shown in FIG. 7(a), the relational expression identification unit 24 before the start of hypertrophy substitutes the measured value and the calculated accumulated temperature into the formula y = a1·x + b1 to obtain the intercept b1 and identify the relational expression before the start of hypertrophy. For example, assume that the following formula (3) is identified as the relational expression before the start of hypertrophy. y = 0.014×x + 4.95 …(3)

[0041] Next, in step S20, after the start of bulb enlargement, the relational expression specifying unit 26 obtains the accumulated temperature at the start of bulb enlargement from the relational expression before the start of bulb enlargement (the above equation (3)) and specifies the relational expression after the start of bulb enlargement. Specifically, the relational expression specifying unit 26 after the start of bulb enlargement substitutes Db = 17 into y in the above equation (3) to obtain the accumulated temperature x ≈ 860 at the start of bulb enlargement. Then, as shown in FIG. 7(b), the relational expression specifying unit 26 after the start of bulb enlargement substitutes (x, y) = (860, 17) into the relational expression y = a2·x + b2 after the start of bulb enlargement to obtain the intercept b2 and specify the relational expression after the start of bulb enlargement. For example, assume that the following equation (4) is specified as the relational expression after the start of bulb enlargement. y = 0.085×x - 53.61 …(4)

[0042] Next, in step S24, the harvested bulb diameter specifying unit 28 specifies the harvested bulb diameter using the relational expression after the start of bulb enlargement (the above equation (4)). In this case, the harvested bulb diameter specifying unit 28 regards the time when the accumulated temperature from the time of planting reaches Thv in FIG. 6 as the harvest time (optimal harvest period), and substitutes x = Thv into the relational expression after the start of bulb enlargement (the above equation (4)) to specify the bulb diameter of the phosphorus stem at the time of harvest. As shown in FIG. 8, when Thv = 1700 °C, substituting this value into x in the above equation (4) gives the bulb diameter of the phosphorus stem at the time of harvest (y ≈ 91 mm).

[0043] Next, in step S26, the harvested phosphorus stem weight specifying unit 30 specifies the harvested phosphorus stem weight using the harvested bulb diameter. In this case, the harvested phosphorus stem weight specifying unit 30 substitutes the bulb diameter of the phosphorus stem at the time of harvest (y ≈ 91 mm) into the above equation (1) to specify the harvested phosphorus stem weight.

[0044] Next, in step S28, the yield estimating unit 32 estimates the yield from the above equation (2) using the harvested phosphorus stem weight specified in step S26.

[0045] Next, in step S30, the harvest date specifying unit 34 specifies the harvest date. The harvest date specifying unit 34 refers to the past data and future data of the temperature DB40. If the date when the accumulated temperature from the planting date reaches Thv = 1700 °C is July 24, 2019, then that date is specified as the optimal harvest period (harvest date).

[0046] Next, in step S32, the output unit 36 outputs a screen for displaying the yield information estimated in step S28 and the harvest date information specified in step S30 to the user terminal 70. Thereby, producers and the like can confirm when and how much yield can be obtained. Thus, the process of FIG. 5 ends.

[0047] On the other hand, when the determination in step S16 is negative, that is, when the measurement date of the measured value is after the start of hypertrophy, the process proceeds to step S22.

[0048] In this case, when the process proceeds to step S22, the post-hypertrophy relational expression specifying unit 26 specifies the post-hypertrophy relational expression from the measured value. Specifically, the post-hypertrophy relational expression specifying unit 26 calculates the integrated temperature from the planting date on the measurement date based on the past data in the temperature DB 40. Then, the post-hypertrophy relational expression specifying unit 26 substitutes the calculated integrated temperature and the measured value into the post-hypertrophy relational expression y = a2·x + b2 to specify the post-hypertrophy relational expression as shown in FIG. 9(a) (in this case, the pre-hypertrophy relational expression is not specified). Here, it is assumed that the following equation (5) can be specified as the post-hypertrophy relational expression. y = 0.085×x - 57.64 …(5)

[0049] Next, in step S24, the harvested bulb diameter specifying unit 28 specifies the harvested bulb diameter using the post-hypertrophy relational expression (the above equation (5)). In this case, the harvested bulb diameter specifying unit 28 regards the time when the integrated temperature from the planting time reaches Thv in FIG. 6 as the harvest time (optimal harvest period), and substitutes x = Thv into the post-hypertrophy relational expression (the above equation (5)) to specify the bulb diameter of the phosphorus stem at the time of harvest. As shown in FIG. 9(b), when Thv = 1700°C, substituting this value into x in the above equation (5) gives the bulb diameter of the phosphorus stem at the time of harvest (y ≒ 87 mm).

[0050] Subsequent processing in steps S26, S28, S30, and S32 is the same as the above-described processing.

[0051] As described in detail above, according to the first embodiment, the input receiving unit 20 acquires the measured value of the diameter of the base of the onion leaf sheath or the diameter of the bulb of the scallion and the information of the measurement date (measurement time) (S12), and the relationship formula specifying unit 24 before the start of hypertrophy or the relationship formula specifying unit 26 after the start of hypertrophy specifies the accumulated temperature from the time of planting on the measurement date (the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value) (S18, S22). Then, the relationship formula specifying unit 26 after the start of hypertrophy specifies the relationship formula after the start of hypertrophy using the measured value and the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value (S18 and S20, or S22), and the bulb diameter specifying unit 28 at the time of harvest specifies the bulb diameter of the scallion when the accumulated temperature (Thv) at the time of harvest becomes a predetermined value using the relationship formula after the start of hypertrophy (S24). Thus, in the first embodiment, by using at least one measured value of the diameter of the base of the leaf sheath or the diameter of the bulb of the scallion, the weight of the scallion at the time of harvest can be easily and accurately estimated. Further, by obtaining constants as shown in FIG. 6 when cultivating onions of various varieties under various conditions and storing them in the constant table 42, even when cultivating onions of various varieties under various conditions, the bulb diameter, weight, yield, and harvest date at the time of harvest can be easily calculated.

[0052] Further, in the first embodiment, the scallion weight specifying unit 30 at the time of harvest specifies the weight of the scallion at the time of harvest based on the above formula (1) from the bulb diameter of the scallion when the accumulated temperature from the time of planting becomes a predetermined value (Thv). Thereby, the weight of the scallion at the time of harvest can be accurately specified.

[0053] Further, in the first embodiment, the slope a2 of the relationship formula after the start of hypertrophy is set as a constant according to the variety, cultivation period, soil, etc. In this way, by preparing the slope in advance for each combination of variety, cultivation period, soil, etc., it becomes possible to specify the relationship formula after the start of hypertrophy without having to perform multiple measurements after the start of hypertrophy.

[0054] Further, in the first embodiment, when the input measured value is a value obtained before the start of the bulb enlargement of the onion, the pre-bulb enlargement relational expression specifying unit 24 specifies the pre-bulb enlargement relational expression from the measured value (S18). Then, the post-bulb enlargement relational expression specifying unit 26 obtains the accumulated temperature at the start of bulb enlargement from the pre-bulb enlargement relational expression, and specifies the post-bulb enlargement relational expression using the obtained accumulated temperature at the start of bulb enlargement (S20). Thereby, even when a measured value of the sheath base diameter before the bulb enlarges is input, the post-bulb enlargement relational expression can be specified.

[0055] Also, in the first embodiment, the slope a1 of the pre-bulb enlargement relational expression is a constant corresponding to the variety, cultivation period, soil, etc. In this way, by preparing the slope a1 in advance for each combination of variety, cultivation period, soil, etc., it becomes possible to specify the pre-bulb enlargement relational expression without having to measure it multiple times before the start of bulb enlargement.

[0056] Also, in the first embodiment, the measured value input by the producer or the like may be a measured value before the start of the bulb enlargement of the onion or a measured value after the start of the bulb enlargement. Therefore, the producer or the like can be given freedom in the timing of measuring the sheath base diameter or the bulb diameter of the onion.

[0057] (Modification example) In the above first embodiment, the case where the server 10 specifies (estimates) the bulb diameter of the onion at the time of harvest based on the measured value of the sheath base diameter or the bulb diameter of the onion and the information on the accumulated temperature from the time of planting on the measurement date of the measured value has been described. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and the server 10 can also specify the growth index (for example, dry weight, fresh weight, plant height, leaf area, etc.) at the time of harvest based on the measured value of the growth index (for example, dry weight, fresh weight, plant height, leaf area, etc.) related to the onion and the information on the accumulated temperature from the time of planting on the measurement date of the measured value.

[0058] Hereinafter, the case where the growth index related to the onion is the dry weight will be described.

[0059] The inventors have found that although the slopes indicating the changes in the dry matter weight of onions with respect to the changes in the accumulated temperature from the time of planting are significantly different before and after the start of bulb swelling, each slope hardly changes even if the planting date is slightly different as long as the variety and the planting location are the same. That is, in Fig. 10(a), the slope α1 (the ratio of the change in dry matter weight to the change in accumulated temperature) of the straight line during the period before the start of bulb swelling is determined by the variety, cultivation period, soil, etc., but the intercept β1 means that it varies depending on the planting date. Therefore, if β1 is obtained by substituting the measured value of dry matter weight for x and the accumulated temperature from the time of planting on the measurement date of the measured value for y in the equation y = α1·x + β1, the relationship equation (y = α1·x + β1) before the start of swelling can be specified. Also, in Fig. 10(a), the slope α2 (the ratio of the change in dry matter weight to the change in accumulated temperature) of the straight line during the period after the start of swelling is determined by the variety, cultivation period, soil, etc., but the intercept varies depending on the planting date. Therefore, if the intercept β2 is obtained by substituting values for x and y in the equation y = α2·x + β2, the relationship equation (y = α2·x + β2) after the start of swelling can be specified. Note that the values to be substituted for x and y in the relationship equation after the start of swelling are the accumulated temperature from the planting date on the measurement date and the measured value of dry matter weight when the producer, etc. inputs the measured value after the start of swelling, and the accumulated temperature at the start of swelling and the value of δb (dry matter weight at the start of swelling) obtained from the relationship equation before the start of swelling when the producer, etc. inputs the measured value before the start of swelling.

[0060] For example, assume that constants α1, α2, δb, Thv (Thv is the accumulated temperature at the predetermined harvest time) as shown in Fig. 10(b) are stored in the constant table 42 as constants corresponding to the acquired field location information, variety information, and planting date information. And assume that a relational expression between the dry matter weight and the accumulated temperature from the time of planting as shown in Fig. 10(c) is obtained based on the information input by the producer, etc. In this case, by substituting x = Thv = 1700 into the relationship equation after the start of swelling, the dry matter weight y at the time of harvest can be specified (estimated) as y = 0.0342×1700 - 24.746 ≒ 33.4 (g).

[0061] As described above, in this modified example, by using the measured values of the dry matter weight at least once, the dry matter weight at the time of harvest can be easily and accurately estimated. Also, by obtaining constants as shown in Fig. 10(b) when cultivating onions of various varieties under various conditions, the dry matter weight at the time of harvest can be easily estimated even when cultivating onions of various varieties under various conditions.

[0062] Note that the same applies to other growth indices (fresh weight, plant height, leaf area, etc.) regarding onions. Since the changes of each growth index with respect to the accumulated temperature change in the same manner as in Fig. 10(a), by determining the constants α1, α2, δb, Thv, the growth index at the time of harvest can be easily and accurately estimated.

[0063] 《Second Embodiment》 Next, the second embodiment will be described. In the above first embodiment, two equations, the equation before the start of bulb enlargement (linear equation) and the equation after the start of bulb enlargement (linear equation), were used to specify (estimate) the bulb diameter of the bulb at the time of harvest. However, in this second embodiment, it is different from the first embodiment in that one exponential function equation is used to specify the bulb diameter of the bulb at the time of harvest. Note that the server 10 of this second embodiment is the same as the first embodiment except that, as shown in Fig. 11, it has a bulb enlargement relational expression specifying unit 25 instead of the measured value acquisition timing determination unit 22, the equation before the start of bulb enlargement specifying unit 24, and the equation after the start of bulb enlargement specifying unit 26 shown in Fig. 3.

[0064] As shown in Fig. 12(a), the present inventors plotted the changes (y) in the sheath base diameter of the onion and the bulb diameter of the bulb on a semi-logarithmic graph with the accumulated temperature on the horizontal axis (x). As a result, it was found that it can be approximated linearly, that is, it can be expressed by an exponential function equation as shown in the following equation (6). y = b1·exp(c1·x) …(6)

[0065] In addition, the inventors have found that as long as the variety and the planting location are the same, each slope hardly changes even if the planting date is slightly deviated. That is, in FIG. 12(b), c1 is determined by the variety, cultivation period, soil, etc., but the intercept b1 will vary depending on the measured values.

[0066] Hereinafter, the processing executed by the server 10 in the second embodiment will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG. 13. Note that, except for steps S13 and S25 described with thick solid lines in FIG. 13, since they are the same as those in the first embodiment, the description will be omitted or simplified.

[0067] In the process of FIG. 13, first, in step S10, the input reception unit 20 waits until there is an input from the user terminal 70. When there is an input from the user terminal 70 and the process proceeds to step S12, the input reception unit 20 acquires the information input from the user terminal 70 and acquires the constant corresponding to the acquired information. For example, the input reception unit 20 refers to the constant table 42 in FIG. 12(c) and acquires the constants c1 and Thv corresponding to the acquired field position information, variety information, and planting date information. The constant c1 in FIG. 12(c) is the slope c1 in the above formula (6), and Thv is the accumulated air temperature at the time of harvest determined in advance.

[0068] Next, in step S13, the hypertrophy relational expression specifying unit 25 substitutes the accumulated air temperature from the time of planting on the measurement date for x in the above formula (6) and the measured value (sheath base diameter or bulb diameter of the phosphorus stem) for y to obtain the intercept b1 and specify the hypertrophy relational expression.

[0069] For example, assume that the measured value aly on a certain measurement date is a1y = 31.76, and the accumulated air temperature alx from the planting date on the measurement date calculated based on the past data of the air temperature DB40 is aly = 1049.7. In this case, the hypertrophy relational expression specifying unit 25 substitutes aly for y and alx for x in the above formula (6) (1049.7 = b1·exp(0.0016398251×31.76)), obtains the intercept b1 (b1 = 5.68021), and specifies the following formula (6)' as the hypertrophy relational expression. y = 5.68021·exp(0.001639825x) …(6)'

[0070] Next, in step S25, the harvested bulb diameter specifying unit 28 specifies (estimates) the bulb diameter of the phosphorus stem at the time of harvest using the growth relational expression (the above formula (6)'). In this case, the harvested bulb diameter specifying unit 28 regards the time when the accumulated temperature from the time of planting reaches Thv = 1700 in FIG. 11(c) as the harvest time (optimal harvest period), and substitutes x = Thv = 1700 into the growth relational expression (the above formula (6)') to specify (estimate) the bulb diameter of the phosphorus stem at the time of harvest (y ≒ 92 mm).

[0071] The subsequent processes (S26, S28, S30, S32) are the same as those in the above first embodiment.

[0072] As described above, according to the second embodiment, the input receiving unit 20 acquires the measured value of the leaf sheath base diameter or the bulb diameter of the phosphorus stem of the onion and the information of the measurement date (measurement time) (S12), the growth relational expression specifying unit 25 specifies the accumulated temperature from the time of planting on the measurement date (the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value), and uses the measured value and the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value to specify the growth relational expression (exponential function expression) (S13). Then, the harvested bulb diameter specifying unit 28 uses the growth relational expression to specify the bulb diameter of the phosphorus stem when the accumulated temperature (Thv) at the time of harvest reaches a predetermined value (S25). In this way, in the second embodiment, by using at least one measured value of the leaf sheath base diameter or the bulb diameter of the phosphorus stem, the weight of the phosphorus stem at the time of harvest can be easily and accurately estimated. Also, by obtaining the constants as shown in FIG. 12(c) when cultivating various varieties of onions under various conditions and storing them in the constant table 42, even when cultivating various varieties of onions under various conditions, the bulb diameter, weight, yield, and harvest date at the time of harvest can be easily calculated.

[0073] Note that whether the server 10 executes the process of the first embodiment or the process of the second embodiment may be selectable by a producer or the like.

[0074] (Modification example) In the above-described second embodiment, the case where the server 10 specifies (estimates) the bulb diameter of the scallion at the time of harvest based on the measured value of the basal sheath diameter of the onion or the bulb diameter of the scallion stalk and the information on the accumulated temperature from the time of planting on the measurement date has been described. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and similar to the modification of the first embodiment, it is also possible to specify (estimate) the growth index (for example, dry weight, fresh weight, plant height, leaf area, etc.) of the onion at the time of harvest.

[0075] For example, as shown in FIG. 14, when the change (y) in the dry weight of the onion is plotted on a semi-logarithmic graph with the accumulated temperature on the horizontal axis (x), it can be approximated linearly.

[0076] Therefore, regarding the dry weight at the time of harvest as well, similar to the above-described second embodiment, based on the measured value of the dry weight and the accumulated temperature from the time of planting on the measurement date of the measured value, a growth relationship formula is obtained, and the dry weight at the time of harvest (when the accumulated temperature is Thv) can be specified (estimated) from the obtained growth relationship formula. Thereby, the dry weight at the time of harvest can be estimated simply and accurately.

[0077] Note that the same applies to other growth indices (fresh weight, plant height, leaf area, etc.) of the onion. Since the change of each growth index with respect to the accumulated temperature changes in the same manner as in FIG. 14, by determining the constants c1 and Thv, the growth index at the time of harvest can be estimated simply and accurately.

[0078] In the above-described embodiment, the case where the server 10 has the functions of each part in FIG. 3 has been described, but the present invention is not limited to this. For example, the user terminal 70 may have the functions of each part in FIG. 3. In this case, the user terminal 70 may not be connected to the network 80. Further, the user terminal 70 may acquire various data stored in the server 10 via the network 80 and execute the processing in FIG. 5.

[0079] The above-described embodiments are preferred examples of the present invention. However, the present invention is not limited thereto, and various modifications can be made without departing from the gist of the present invention.

Explanation of Signs

[0080] 10 Server 20 Input reception unit 22 Measured value acquisition timing determination unit 24 Pre-hypertrophy relational expression specifying unit 25 Hypertrophy relational expression specifying unit 26 Post-hypertrophy relational expression specifying unit 28 Harvest-time bulb diameter specifying unit 30 Harvest-time phosphorus stem weight specifying unit 32 Yield estimation unit 34 Harvest date specifying unit 36 Output unit 90 CPU (Computer) 100 Harvest information prediction system

Claims

1. Accepting the input of the measured value of the base diameter of the onion leaf sheath or the bulb diameter of the phosphorus stem and the information on the measurement time, Identifying the accumulated temperature from the planting time corresponding to the measurement time as the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value, Using the measured value and the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value to identify a first formula showing the relationship between the accumulated temperature after the phosphorus stem starts to hypertrophy and the bulb diameter of the phosphorus stem, Using the first formula to identify the bulb diameter of the phosphorus stem when reaching the predetermined accumulated temperature at the time of harvest, A method for predicting onion harvest information, characterized in that a computer executes the process.

2. The computer further executes a process of identifying the weight of the phosphorus stem at the time of harvest from the bulb diameter of the phosphorus stem when reaching the predetermined accumulated temperature at the time of harvest. The method for predicting onion harvest information according to claim 1.

3. The value showing the change in the bulb diameter of the phosphorus stem with respect to the change in the accumulated temperature in the first formula is a predetermined value. The method for predicting onion harvest information according to claim 1 or 2.

4. When the measurement time is the time until the phosphorus stem starts to hypertrophy, Based on the measured value and the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value, identifying a second formula showing the relationship between the accumulated temperature until the phosphorus stem starts to hypertrophy and the base diameter of the leaf sheath, and using the second formula to identify the accumulated temperature when the base diameter of the leaf sheath becomes a first value indicating the start of hypertrophy of the phosphorus stem, Using the first value and the accumulated temperature when the base diameter of the leaf sheath becomes the first value to identify the first formula. The method for predicting onion harvest information according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

5. The value showing the change in the base diameter of the leaf sheath with respect to the change in the accumulated temperature in the second formula is a predetermined value. The method for predicting onion harvest information according to claim 4.

6. The computer further executes a process of predicting a day suitable for harvesting based on the measured data and predicted data of the temperature at the cultivation site of the onion and the predetermined accumulated temperature at the time of harvesting, according to any one of claims 1 to 5.

7. Accepting input of the measured value of the basal diameter of the leaf sheath or the bulb diameter of the false stem of the onion and information on the measurement time, Identifying the accumulated temperature from the time of planting corresponding to the measurement time as the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value, Using the measured value and the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value to identify a first formula showing the relationship between the accumulated temperature after the false stem starts to hypertrophy and the bulb diameter of the false stem, Using the first formula to identify the bulb diameter of the false stem when reaching the predetermined accumulated temperature at the time of harvesting, A program for predicting onion harvest information, characterized in that the computer executes the process.

8. Accepting input of the measured value of the basal diameter of the leaf sheath or the bulb diameter of the false stem of the onion and information on the measurement time, Identifying the accumulated temperature from the time of planting corresponding to the measurement time as the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value, Using the measured value and the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value to identify an exponential function formula showing the relationship between the accumulated temperature after planting and the bulb diameter of the false stem, Using the exponential function formula to identify the bulb diameter of the false stem when reaching the predetermined accumulated temperature at the time of harvesting, A method for predicting onion harvest information, characterized in that the computer executes the process.

9. Accepting input of the measured value of the growth index related to the onion and information on the measurement time, Identifying the accumulated temperature from the time of planting corresponding to the measurement time as the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value, Using the measured value and the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value to identify a first formula showing the relationship between the accumulated temperature after the false stem starts to hypertrophy and the growth index, Using the first formula, identify the growth index when reaching the pre-determined accumulated temperature at the time of harvest. The computer executes the process, When the measured period is the period until the bulb starts to swell, Based on the measured value and the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value, identify the second formula showing the relationship between the accumulated temperature until the bulb starts to swell and the growth index, and using the second formula, identify the accumulated temperature when the growth index becomes the first value indicating the start of bulb swelling, Using the first value and the accumulated temperature when the growth index becomes the first value, identify the first formula. A method for predicting onion harvest information, characterized by this.

10. Receive the input of the measured value of the growth index, which is any one of the dry weight, fresh weight, plant height, and leaf area of the onion, and the information of the measured period. Identify the accumulated temperature from the time of planting corresponding to the measured period as the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value. Using the measured value and the accumulated temperature corresponding to the measured value, identify the exponential function formula showing the relationship between the accumulated temperature after planting and the growth index. Using the exponential function formula, identify the growth index when reaching the pre-determined accumulated temperature at the time of harvest. The computer executes the process. A method for predicting onion harvest information, characterized by this.

11. The growth index is any one of dry weight, fresh weight, plant height, and leaf area. The method for predicting onion harvest information according to claim 9, characterized by this.

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