Prediction device, prediction method, image forming apparatus, and delivery system

Abstract

To provide an image forming apparatus that, when a sudden change in the usage of a consumable item occurs, can predict a remaining period in which the consumable item can be used according to the sudden change in the usage.SOLUTION: An image forming apparatus predicts a remaining period in which toner stored in a toner bottle can be used, and comprises: a storage circuit 160 that stores the history of the usage of a consumable item; a peak determination unit 144 that determines a peak usage in the fluctuation of the usage from the usage per unit time exceeding a threshold, of the usages present in the history; and a period calculation unit 145 that calculates the remaining period in which the toner can be used by using the acquired remaining amount and peak usage.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 6

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a technique for predicting the remaining available period of a consumable in an apparatus including the consumable.

Background Art

[0002] In a multifunction peripheral (MFP) having functions of a scanner, a printer, and a copier, a toner bottle or the like containing toner is used, and these toner bottles or the like need to be replaced regularly.

[0003] According to Patent Document 1, using the usage history of a consumable, the average usage amount per day of the week, the total usage amount per week, or the total usage amount per month is calculated, a usage frequency pattern is derived using the calculation result, and based on the derived usage frequency pattern, the replacement time of the consumable is predicted. If the user prepares the consumable in accordance with the predicted replacement time, the downtime of the apparatus due to the expiration of the life of the consumable can be shortened, and the operating efficiency of the apparatus can be improved.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0004]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0005] According to Patent Document 1, using the usage history of consumables, for example, the average usage amount per day of the week is calculated, and based on the derived usage frequency pattern using the calculated average usage amount, the replacement time of the consumables is predicted. Here, in the usage history of the consumables, although the usage amount changes rapidly, if the average usage amount does not change compared to the case where there is no rapid change in the usage amount, the same usage frequency pattern is derived and the same replacement time is predicted. However, if a rapid change in the usage amount occurs after the replacement time is predicted, there is a risk that the consumables will reach the end of their life before the predicted replacement time.

[0006] This problem occurs not only in toner bottles but also in consumables such as photoreceptor drums and intermediate transfer belts. It also occurs not only in image forming apparatuses but also in home appliances such as mobile phones equipped with secondary batteries for storing power, passenger cars, trains, etc. Generally, it occurs in apparatuses equipped with consumables.

[0007] The present disclosure aims to solve the above problems and provides a prediction device, a prediction method, an image forming apparatus, and a delivery system that can predict the remaining available period of consumables according to a rapid change in the usage amount of consumables when the rapid change in the usage amount occurs.

Means for Solving the Problem

[0008] To achieve the above object, one aspect of the present disclosure is a prediction device for predicting the remaining available period of consumables, comprising: a storage means for storing the usage history of the consumables; a remaining amount acquisition means for acquiring the remaining amount of the consumables; a peak determination means for determining a peak usage amount in the variation of the usage amount from among the usage amounts per unit time exceeding a threshold value in the history; and a period calculation means for calculating the remaining available period of the consumables using the remaining amount and the peak usage amount.

[0009] Here, the period calculation means may calculate the remaining available period of the consumables by dividing the acquired remaining amount by the peak usage amount.

[0010] Here, a time acquisition means for acquiring the time when the remaining amount is acquired, and at the acquired time, adding the remaining period calculated by the period calculation means, to calculate a replacement scheduled time for replacing the container storing the consumable with a new container or a filling scheduled time for newly filling the container storing the consumable with the consumable. A time calculation means may be provided.

[0011] Here, when a plurality of intervals including the usage amount per unit time exceeding the threshold value are extracted from the usage amounts in the history, the peak determination means may extract the maximum usage amount from each of the plurality of extracted intervals, and use the plurality of extracted maximum usage amounts to determine the peak usage amount.

[0012] Here, the determination of the peak usage amount may be performed by calculating the arithmetic mean of the plurality of extracted maximum usage amounts.

[0013] Here, when the threshold value is a first threshold value and a value larger than the first threshold value is a second threshold value, the peak determination means may exclude the usage amounts larger than the second threshold value from the history of the usage amounts and extract a plurality of maximum usage amounts.

[0014] Here, the peak determination means may exclude the usage amounts outside a predetermined period from the history of the usage amounts and extract a plurality of maximum usage amounts.

[0015] Here, the peak determination means may use the usage amounts after the time when the remaining amount of the consumable becomes equal to or less than the remaining amount threshold value in the history of the usage amounts to extract a plurality of maximum usage amounts.

[0016] Here, the period calculation means may divide the remaining amount obtained by subtracting the usage amount within the period required for the delivery of the container storing the consumable from the acquired remaining amount by the peak usage amount to calculate the remaining period.

[0017] In addition, one aspect of the present disclosure is a prediction method used in a prediction device that stores a history of the usage amount of a consumable and predicts the remaining available period of the consumable. The prediction method includes: a remaining amount acquisition step of acquiring the remaining amount of the consumable; a peak determination step of determining a peak usage amount in the variation of the usage amount from among the usage amounts per unit time exceeding a threshold value in the history of the usage amount; and a period calculation step of calculating the remaining available period of the consumable using the remaining amount and the peak usage amount.

[0018] In addition, one aspect of the present disclosure is an image forming apparatus including the prediction device described above.

[0019] Here, the prediction device further includes a time acquisition means for acquiring the time when the remaining amount is acquired, and a time calculation means for adding the remaining period to the acquired time to calculate a scheduled replacement time for replacing the container storing the consumable with a new container. The image forming apparatus further includes a time determination means for determining the shipping time of the new container using the scheduled replacement time calculated by the prediction device, and a notification means for notifying the management device that manages the container of the determined shipping time.

[0020] Here, the time determination means may determine the shipping time of the container based on the scheduled replacement time, the inventory information of the container in the facility where the image forming apparatus is installed, and the allowable number of containers in the facility.

[0021] Here, the allowable number of inventories may be determined based on the history of the usage amount per unit time of the consumable stored in the storage means.

[0022] Here, when the usage amount per unit time of the consumable stored in the storage means is greater than a predetermined value, the allowable number of inventories may be determined to be 1 or more.

[0023] Here, when the usage amount of the consumable stored in the storage means is less than a predetermined value, the allowable stock number may be determined to be 0.

[0024] Here, further, a detection unit that determines whether the remaining amount of the consumable is near empty, and when the detection unit determines that the remaining amount of the consumable is near empty, a timing determination means that determines the shipping timing so as to immediately ship a new container may be provided.

[0025] Here, further, a setting means for setting the time required for the delivery of the container may be provided, and the timing determination means may determine the shipping time of the container using the scheduled replacement time and the time required for the delivery of the container.

[0026] Here, the setting means may set the time required for the delivery of the container based on the address of the facility where the image forming apparatus is installed and the address of the delivery source that delivers the container.

[0027] The image forming apparatus according to claim 18, comprising:

[0028] Further, one aspect of the present disclosure is a delivery system including the image forming apparatus and the management apparatus described above.

Advantages of the Invention

[0029] According to the above configuration, when a sudden change in the usage amount of the consumable occurs, the remaining available period of the consumable can be predicted according to the sudden change in the usage amount. Therefore, according to the predicted remaining period, if a new container storing the consumable is prepared or the consumable is newly filled in the container, the downtime of the apparatus due to the end of the use of the consumable stored in the container can be shortened, and the operation efficiency of the apparatus can be improved, which has an excellent effect.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0030]

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7

Figure 8

Figure 9

Figure 10

Figure 11

Figure 12

Figure 13

Figure 14

Mode for Carrying Out the Invention

[0031] 1 Embodiment The delivery system 1 as one embodiment according to the present disclosure will be described with reference to the drawings.

[0032] 1.1 Delivery System 1 As shown in FIG. 1, the delivery system 1 is configured such that the image forming apparatus 5 and the server apparatus 4 are interconnected via the network 2.

[0033] The image forming apparatus 5 is installed in a general office. The image forming apparatus 5 predicts the scheduled replacement date of a toner bottle (a container) that houses toner (a consumable), and transmits the predicted scheduled replacement date to the server apparatus 4 via the network 2.

[0034] The server apparatus 4 is installed in a management center that manages the toner bottles of the image forming apparatus 5. The server apparatus 4 receives, via the network 2 from the image forming apparatus 5, the scheduled replacement date of the toner bottle attached to the image forming apparatus 5, and stores the received scheduled replacement date internally. The administrator of the management center arranges to deliver a new toner bottle to the office where the image forming apparatus 5 is installed before the scheduled replacement date of the toner bottle stored in the server apparatus 4.

[0035] 1.2 Image Forming Apparatus 5 As shown in FIG. 1, the image forming apparatus 5 is a tandem type color multifunction machine having functions of a scanner, a printer, and a copier.

[0036] As shown in this figure, at the bottom of the housing of the image forming apparatus 5, a paper feeding unit 13 for accommodating and feeding recording sheets is provided. Above the paper feeding unit 13, a printer 12 that forms an image by an electrophotographic method is provided. Further above the printer 12, an image reader 11 that reads a document and generates image data, and an operation panel 19 that displays an operation screen and receives input operations from a user are provided.

[0037] The image reader 11 has an automatic document feeder. The automatic document feeder conveys the documents set on the document tray one by one to the document glass plate via a conveyance path. The image reader 11 reads the document conveyed to a predetermined position on the document glass plate by the automatic document feeder or the image placed on the document glass plate by the user by moving the scanner, and obtains image data composed of multi-value digital signals of red (R), green (G), and blue (B).

[0038] The image data of each color component obtained by the image reader 11 is subjected to various data processes in the control circuit 100 and further converted into the image data of each reproduced color of yellow (Y), magenta (M), cyan (C), and black (K).

[0039] The printer 12 includes an intermediate transfer belt 21 stretched by a driving roller, a driven roller, and a backup roller, a secondary transfer roller 22, image forming units 20Y, 20M, 20C, 20K arranged at predetermined intervals along the running direction X of the intermediate transfer belt 21 facing the intermediate transfer belt 21, a fixing unit 50, a control circuit 100, and the like.

[0040] The image forming units 20Y, 20M, 20C, 20K respectively form toner images of Y, M, C, and K colors. Specifically, each image forming unit includes a photosensitive drum as an image carrier, an LED array for exposing and scanning the surface of the photosensitive drum, a charging charger, a developing device, a cleaner, a primary transfer roller, and the like.

[0041] Above the intermediate transfer belt 21, toner bottles 31Y, 31M, 31C, 31K are detachably provided above each of the image forming units 20Y, 20M, 20C, 20K with the intermediate transfer belt 25 interposed therebetween. The toner bottles 31Y, 31M, 31C, 31K contain toners of Y, M, C, and K colors respectively, and the toners contained in the toner bottles 31Y, 31M, 31C, 31K are supplied to the image forming units 20Y, 20M, 20C, 20K by toner supply mechanisms 33Y, 33M, 33C, 33K.

[0042] In addition, detection sensors 32Y, 32M, 32C, 32K (detection units) for detecting that the toner contained in the toner bottles 31Y, 31M, 31C, 31K has become near empty, that is, for determining whether the remaining amount of toner in each toner bottle is below a predetermined value, are provided on the side surfaces of the toner bottles 31Y, 31M, 31C, 31K. Here, the predetermined value is a value extremely close to 0, for example, a value of 2% of the initial filling amount of the toner bottle.

[0043] The paper feeding unit 13 includes paper feeding cassettes 60, 61, and 62 that accommodate recording sheets of different sizes, and pickup rollers 63, 64, and 65 for feeding the recording sheets from each paper feeding cassette to the conveyance path.

[0044] In each of the image forming units 20Y to 20K, each photosensitive drum is uniformly charged by a charger, exposed by an LED array, and an electrostatic latent image is formed on the surface of the photosensitive drum. Each electrostatic latent image is developed by a developing device of a corresponding color, and a toner image of colors Y to K is formed on the surface of each photosensitive drum. The toner image is sequentially transferred onto the surface of the intermediate transfer belt 21 by the electrostatic action of each primary transfer roller disposed on the back side of the intermediate transfer belt 21.

[0045] The imaging timings of the respective colors are shifted so that toner images of colors Y to K are multi-transferred on the intermediate transfer belt 21.

[0046] On the other hand, a recording sheet is fed from one of the paper feeding cassettes of the paper feeding unit 13 in accordance with the imaging operation by the image forming units 20Y to 20K.

[0047] The recording sheet is conveyed on the conveyance path to a secondary transfer position where the secondary transfer roller 22 and the backup roller face each other with the intermediate transfer belt 21 therebetween. At the secondary transfer position, the toner images of colors Y to K multi-transferred on the intermediate transfer belt 21 are secondarily transferred onto the recording sheet by the electrostatic action of the secondary transfer roller 22. The recording sheet onto which the toner images of colors Y to K have been secondarily transferred is further conveyed to the fixing unit 50.

[0048] When the toner image on the surface of the recording sheet passes through the fixing nip formed between the heating roller 51 of the fixing unit 50 and the pressure roller 52 pressed against the heating roller 51, it is fused and fixed to the surface of the recording sheet by heating and pressurization. After passing through the fixing unit 50, the recording sheet is sent out to the discharge tray 15.

[0049] The operation panel 19 is provided with a display unit composed of a liquid crystal display panel or the like, and displays the content set by the user, various messages, the scheduled toner bottle replacement date, etc. The operation panel 19 receives instructions from the user such as copy start, copy count setting, copy condition setting, data output destination setting, etc., and notifies the control circuit 100 of the received content. Further, the operation panel 19 is provided with a speaker. The speaker converts an analog audio signal into sound and outputs the sound. The speaker notifies the user of, for example, the scheduled toner bottle replacement date by voice.

[0050] 1.3 Prediction of toner bottle replacement timing according to the present disclosure (1) Relationship between passage of time and remaining toner amount Here, the relationship between the passage of time and the remaining toner amount will be described.

[0051] Here, the toner consumption rate per predetermined period is defined as the toner consumption rate. The predetermined period may be "one day" or "one week", or may be "the period required for toner delivery". Here, the toner consumption rate per day is defined as the toner consumption rate Rd.

[0052] If it is assumed that Rd is always constant, the number of days N required from after replacing the toner bottle until the toner is empty is N = (toner filling amount) / Rd (see Figure 2).

[0053] The graph 301 shown in Figure 2 shows the relationship between the passage of time (days) and the remaining toner amount. The horizontal axis 302 indicates the passage of time, and the vertical axis 303 indicates the remaining toner amount in the toner bottle. The straight line 304 is a prediction line indicating the remaining toner amount that decreases as time passes. Since it is assumed that Rd is always constant, the remaining toner amount decreases linearly and monotonically.

[0054] (2) When the toner consumption rate Rd varies However, in reality, the usage frequency of the image forming apparatus is not constant, and there are days with high and low print volumes mixed, and the toner consumption rate Rd has variations. Fig. 3 shows the transition of the toner consumption rate Rd with variations, and Fig. 4 shows the transition of the remaining amount of toner when the toner consumption rate Rd varies.

[0055] The graph 311 shown in Fig. 3 shows the relationship between the passage of time (days) and the toner consumption rate with variations. The horizontal axis 312 indicates the passage of time, and the vertical axis 313 indicates the toner consumption rate. The broken line 314 indicates the measured and varying toner consumption rate as time passes. Here, the average value 315 of the toner consumption rate is shown in the graph 311.

[0056] Also, the graph 321 shown in Fig. 4 shows the relationship between the passage of time (days) and the remaining amount of toner in the case of a toner consumption rate with variations. The horizontal axis 322 indicates the passage of time, and the vertical axis 313 indicates the remaining amount of toner. The straight line 324 is a prediction line indicating the remaining amount of toner in the case of a toner consumption rate without variations, and the broken line 325 indicates the measured remaining amount of toner in the case of a toner consumption rate with variations.

[0057] Here, the intersection point 327 of the broken line 325 and the horizontal axis 322 indicates the day when the toner bottle becomes empty (the empty day of the toner bottle) when the remaining amount of toner changes due to a toner consumption rate with variations. Also, the intersection point 326 of the straight line 324 and the horizontal axis 322 indicates the empty day of the toner bottle when the remaining amount of toner changes due to a toner consumption rate without variations.

[0058] As shown in this figure, the intersection point 327 precedes the intersection point 326.

[0059] Thus, usually, since the toner consumption rate has variations, it is difficult to accurately predict the day when the toner bottle becomes empty.

[0060] In particular, as shown in FIG. 4, when the empty date of the toner bottle (intersection point 327) is earlier than the empty date of the toner bottle (intersection point 326) when the toner consumption rate does not vary, there is a possibility that the delivery of the toner bottle to the user will be delayed. On the other hand, if the toner bottle is delivered too early with an excessive margin, it will result in surplus inventory, which is not preferable.

[0061] Therefore, there is a need for a toner delivery system that prevents surplus inventory as much as possible and does not cause delays.

[0062] (3) Comparison of Two Types of Toner Consumption Rates The cases of two types of toner consumption rates are shown in comparison.

[0063] Graph 331 shown in FIG. 5 shows the relationship between the passage of time (days) and two types of toner consumption rates. The horizontal axis 332 indicates the passage of time, and the vertical axis 333 indicates the toner consumption rate. The broken line 334 indicates the toner consumption rate of Pattern A as time passes. Also, the broken line 335 indicates the toner consumption rate of Pattern B as time passes. Here, the average value 336 of the toner consumption rate is shown in Graph 331.

[0064] Here, the variation in the toner consumption rate of Pattern B is larger than that of Pattern A. On the other hand, the average value of the toner consumption rate of Pattern B and the average value of the toner consumption rate of Pattern A are the same.

[0065] In either case, the predicted empty date of the toner bottle from the average value is the same. However, the prediction error, which is the difference between the predicted empty date and the actual empty date, is larger for Pattern B than for Pattern A. Therefore, for a usage history like Pattern B, if the prediction error is not estimated to be large, it will result in a delay in the toner bottle.

[0066] (4) Method for Predicting the Replacement Time of the Toner Bottle As an example, the method for predicting the replacement time of the toner bottle will be described with reference to FIG. 9.

[0067] The graph 341 shown in FIG. 9 shows the relationship between the passage of time (days) and the toner consumption rate with variations. The horizontal axis 342 indicates the passage of time, and the vertical axis 343 indicates the toner consumption rate. The broken line 344 is the same as the broken line 314 shown in FIG. 3 and indicates the toner consumption rate that varies with the passage of time. Here, the average value Rd_avg (349) of the toner consumption rate is shown in the graph 341.

[0068] From the history information of the usage amount per unit time of the toner bottle, all the history information included in the predetermined investigation period 231 and including the usage amount exceeding the predetermined threshold value Rd_th (348, the first threshold value) is extracted. As an example, in the case shown in FIG. 9, the history information included in the sections 351, 352, and 353 is extracted. This is because the usage amounts in the history information included in the sections 351, 352, and 353 exceed the threshold value Rd_th (348).

[0069] Here, the threshold value Rd_th may be determined as follows.

[0070] Using all the history information in the history information table 201, a frequency distribution table of the usage amount per unit time is created. That is, a plurality of classes including the usage amount per unit time are created, and for the usage amounts of all the history information, it is determined which class they belong to, and the frequency of the usage amount is counted for each class.

[0071] For example, the first class includes the frequencies of the usage amounts from the amount "1" to the amount "99". The second class includes the frequencies of the usage amounts from the amount "100" to the amount "199". The third class includes the frequencies of the usage amounts from the amount "200" to the amount "299". Similarly, hereinafter, the nth class includes the frequencies of the usage amounts from the amount "10000" to the amount "10099". Here, it is assumed that the amount "10099" is the maximum value among the usage amounts included in the history information in the history information table 201.

[0072] Among the total values of all the frequencies in the frequency distribution table thus generated, the representative value of the class that divides the total value in the upper 20% range from the total value in the lower 80% range may be determined as the threshold value Rd_th.

[0073] Next, the maximum usage amount (maximum value) is extracted from each section. As an example, in the case shown in FIG. 9, the maximum usage amount 345 within section 351 is extracted. Similarly, for sections 352 and 353, the maximum usage amounts 346 and 347 within each section are extracted, respectively. Here, the usage amounts 345, 346, and 347 are represented by usage amounts Rd2, Rd9, and Rd13, respectively.

[0074] Next, the average value Rd_max (peak usage amount) of the extracted maximum usage amounts is calculated using the following formula.

[0075] Average value Rd_max = (ΣRdi) / n Here, ΣRdi represents the sum of the extracted maximum usage amounts, and n represents the number of the extracted maximum usage amounts.

[0076] As shown in FIG. 9, as an example, the average value Rd_max = (ΣRd2, Rd9, Rd13) / 3 (362).

[0077] Next, the graph 371 shown in FIG. 9 shows the relationship between the passage of time (days) and the remaining amount of toner. The horizontal axis 372 represents the passage of time, and the vertical axis 373 represents the remaining amount of toner. The straight lines 381 and 382 (prediction lines) show the transition of the remaining amount of toner that decreases as time passes in the case of a toner consumption rate without variation. The toner bottle is replaced with a new one on the previous replacement date 374. The next replacement scheduled date 377 is predicted by the straight lines 381 and 382 in the case of a toner consumption rate without variation. Also, the straight line 383 shows the transition of the remaining amount of toner obtained by the prediction of the present disclosure.

[0078] Using the remaining amount of the toner bottle at the current time (judgment date 375) and the average value Rd_max, the remaining days are calculated using the following formula (378).

[0079] Remaining days = Remaining amount at present / Average value Rd_max Next, the next toner bottle replacement scheduled date 376 is calculated (379) according to the following formula.

[0080] Next replacement scheduled date = Current day (judgment day, i.e., the current time) + Remaining days In this way, the original straight line 382 (prediction line) shown in FIG. 9 is replaced by a new straight line 383 (prediction line).

[0081] As described above, the next toner bottle replacement scheduled date (376) is estimated.

[0082] According to the above method, using the rapidly changing past usage amount of the toner, which is a consumable, and assuming that a rapid change may occur in the future as well, the transition of the remaining amount of the consumable is predicted. Therefore, when a rapid change in the usage amount of the consumable occurs, the remaining available period of the consumable can be predicted.

[0083] 1.4 Control circuit 100 As shown in FIG. 6, the control circuit 100 is composed of a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 151, a ROM (Read Only Memory) 152, a RAM (Random Access Memory) 153, an image memory 154, an image processing circuit 155, a network communication circuit 156, a scanner control circuit 157, an input / output circuit 158, a printer control circuit 159, a storage circuit 160, an output circuit 162, a timing circuit 163, an input / output circuit 167, a bus 166, etc.

[0084] The CPU 151, ROM 152, RAM 153, image memory 154, image processing circuit 155, network communication circuit 156, scanner control circuit 157, input / output circuit 158, printer control circuit 159, output circuit 162, timing circuit 163, and input / output circuit 167 are interconnected via the bus 166. The storage circuit 160 is connected to the input / output circuit 167.

[0085] The CPU 151, ROM 152, and RAM 153 constitute the main control unit 140.

[0086] The RAM 153 temporarily stores various control variables and data such as the number of copies set by the operation panel 19, and provides a work area for program execution by the CPU 151.

[0087] The ROM 152 stores control programs and the like for executing various jobs such as copy operations. Note that it may be assumed that the control programs and the like are stored in the storage circuit 160.

[0088] The CPU 151 operates according to the control program stored in the ROM 152.

[0089] The image memory 154 temporarily stores image data included in print jobs and the like.

[0090] The image processing circuit 155 performs various data processes on the image data of each color component of R, G, and B obtained by the image reader 11, for example, and converts it into image data of each reproduced color of Y, M, C, and K.

[0091] The network communication circuit 156 receives a print job from an external terminal device via the network 2. Also, the network communication circuit 156 transmits data to the server device 4 via the network 2. An example of the data is the scheduled toner bottle replacement date.

[0092] The scanner control circuit 157 controls the image reader 11 and executes the operation of reading a document.

[0093] The input / output circuit 158 receives an input signal from the operation panel 19 and outputs the received input signal to the main control unit 140. Also, the input / output circuit 158 receives an image from the main control unit 140 and outputs and displays the received image on the operation panel 19.

[0094] The printer control circuit 159 controls the printer 12 to execute an image forming operation. Also, each time the printer control circuit 159 executes image formation, it generates, for each color, the coverage (printing rate within the image) of the image data for which image formation has been performed, and outputs the generated coverage to a coverage counter 147, which will be described later.

[0095] The input / output circuit 167 writes data to, or reads data from, the storage circuit 160.

[0096] The storage circuit 160 will be described later.

[0097] The output circuit 162 is connected to a speaker. The output circuit 162 converts the digital audio signal received from the main control unit 140 into an analog audio signal, and outputs the generated analog audio signal to the speaker.

[0098] The timing circuit 163 outputs the current time.

[0099] 1.5 Storage Circuit 160 The storage circuit 160 (storage means) is composed of a non-volatile semiconductor memory. Note that the storage circuit 160 may be composed of a hard disk.

[0100] The storage circuit 160 has areas for storing a history information table 201, a replacement date 221, an investigation period 231, and the like.

[0101] (1) History Information Table 201 The history information table 201 is a data table for storing the history of the remaining amounts, usage amounts, etc. of the toner contained in the toner bottles 31Y, 31M, 31C, and 31K.

[0102] For the sake of simplicity in explanation, in the history information table 201, the history of the remaining amount, usage amount, etc. of the toner contained in the toner bottle 31K is described, and the description of the history of the remaining amount, usage amount, etc. of the toner contained in the toner bottles 31Y, 31M, and 31C is omitted. The same applies to the following descriptions.

[0103] As shown in FIG. 7, the history information table 201 is configured to include a plurality of pieces of history information 202. Each piece of history information 202 includes a date and time 203, a remaining amount 204, a usage amount 205, and replacement information 206.

[0104] The date and time 203 indicates the year, month, day, hour, and minute when the remaining amount of the toner contained in the toner bottle 31K was detected.

[0105] The remaining amount 204 indicates the remaining amount of the toner contained in the toner bottle 31K.

[0106] The usage amount 205 is calculated by subtracting the currently detected remaining amount from the previously detected remaining amount. That is, it indicates the amount of toner used between the previously detected time point and the currently detected time point. Here, if the remaining amount of the toner contained in the toner bottle 31K is detected every day, the usage amount 205 corresponds to the toner consumption rate described above.

[0107] The replacement information 206 indicates whether the toner bottle has been replaced with a new one. When the replacement information 206 is "replacement", it indicates that it has been replaced with a new one. The remaining amount of the toner at this time is the initial filling amount when the toner bottle is filled with toner up to the full amount.

[0108] (2) Replacement date 221 As shown in FIG. 8(a), the replacement date 221 indicates the year, month, day, hour, and minute when the toner bottle was replaced with a new one.

[0109] The replacement date 221 is set by being written into the memory circuit 160 by the history processing unit 143 when the toner bottle is replaced with a new one.

[0110] (3) As shown in FIG. 8(b), the investigation period 231 indicates the period for which the peak determination process described later is to be performed using the history information table 201. The investigation period 231 consists of a start date 231a and an end date 231b. The start date 231a is the first day (year / month / day) of the period for which the peak determination process is to be performed, and the end date 231b is the last day (year / month / day) of the period for which the peak determination process is to be performed.

[0111] The investigation period 231 is set on the day when the toner bottle is replaced with a new one.

[0112] For example, for the start date 231a, the day when the toner bottle is replaced with a new one is set, and for the end date 231b, the day of the third month from the start date 231a is set. Here, the investigation period 231 and the three months shown in FIG. 8(b) are examples, and may be determined according to the type of toner, the usage status of the toner, etc.

[0113] The investigation period 231 is set by being written into the memory circuit 160 by the history processing unit 143 when the toner bottle is replaced with a new one.

[0114] Note that, of the entire period of the history information included in the history information table 201, the latter 20% period may be set as the investigation period 231. Here, 20% is an example, and may be determined according to the type of toner, the usage status of the toner, etc.

[0115] 1.6 Main control unit 140 As described above, the main control unit 140 functions as a time acquisition unit 142, a history processing unit 143, a peak determination unit 144, a period calculation unit 145, a timing calculation unit 146, a coverage counter 147, and a remaining amount detection unit 148 as shown in FIG. 6 when the CPU 151 operates according to the control program. Here, the main control unit 140 and the memory circuit 160 constitute a prediction device that predicts the remaining available period of the toner, which is a consumable.

[0116] (1) Overall control unit 141 When the CPU 101 operates according to the control program, the overall control unit 141 uniformly controls the image memory 154, the image processing circuit 155, the network communication circuit 156, the scanner control circuit 157, the input / output circuit 158, the printer control circuit 159, the storage circuit 160, the output circuit 162, the input / output circuit 167, etc. Further, the overall control unit 141 uniformly controls the time acquisition unit 142, the history processing unit 143, the peak determination unit 144, the period calculation unit 145, the timing calculation unit 146, the coverage counter 147, and the remaining amount detection unit 148.

[0117] The overall control unit 141 stores a predetermined processing time in advance. When this processing time arrives, the history processing, peak determination processing, and period timing processing described later are executed. In order to execute these processes, a time period when the user usually does not use the image forming apparatus 5 is set as the processing time. For example, the processing time is set to 5:25 am.

[0118] The overall control unit 141 determines whether the current time acquired by the time acquisition unit 142 described later is the processing time.

[0119] If it is the processing time, the overall control unit 141 controls the history processing unit 143, etc. to execute the history processing, peak determination processing, and period timing processing described later.

[0120] (2) Time acquisition unit 142 The time acquisition unit 142 (time acquisition means) acquires the current time from the timing circuit 163 under the control of the overall control unit 141. The current time includes the year, month, day, hour, and minute.

[0121] (3) Coverage counter 147 and remaining amount detection unit 148 (Coverage counter 147) The coverage counter 147 has a cumulative counter for storing the coverage (printing rate in the image) of the image data for which image formation has been performed for each of the colors Y, M, C, and K.

[0122] Each time image formation is performed, the coverage counter 147 receives from the printer control unit 159 the coverage of the image data for which image formation has been performed for each of the colors Y, M, C, and K, and adds the received coverage to the cumulative counters for each of the colors Y, M, C, and K.

[0123] The cumulative counters of the coverage counter 147 are reset for each color when the toner bottle of the corresponding color is replaced with a new one.

[0124] The coverage counter 147 outputs the value of the cumulative counter to the remaining amount detection unit 148 for each of the colors Y, M, C, and K each time.

[0125] (Remaining amount detection unit 148) The remaining amount detection unit 148 (remaining amount acquisition means) receives the value of the cumulative counter from the coverage counter 147 for each of the colors Y, M, C, and K. When receiving the value of the cumulative counter, the remaining amount detection unit 148 calculates the remaining amount of toner in the toner bottle for each of the colors Y, M, C, and K by the following formula.

[0126] Remaining amount of toner = Initial filling amount of toner bottle - Value of cumulative counter * Coefficient α Here, the initial filling amount of the toner bottle refers to the amount of toner filled in a new toner bottle when the toner bottle is replaced with a new one. Also, the coefficient α is the amount of toner consumed per unit coverage, and is a value determined for each image forming unit or for other conditions.

[0127] The remaining amount detection unit 148 outputs the calculated remaining amount of toner.

[0128] (4) History processing unit 143 The history processing unit 143 executes the following under the control of the overall control unit 141.

[0129] The history processing unit 143 acquires the remaining amount of toner (remaining amount on the current day) contained in the toner bottle 31K from the remaining amount detection unit 148.

[0130] The history processing unit 143 reads out, via the input / output circuit 167, the history information including the date and time of the day before the acquired current date and time (year / month / day, hour / minute) from the history information table 201. The history processing unit 143 extracts the remaining amount (remaining amount of the previous day) from the read history information, subtracts the remaining amount of the current day from the remaining amount of the previous day, and calculates the usage amount (usage amount of the current day).

[0131] The history processing unit 143 writes, via the input / output circuit 167, the history information consisting of the current date and time, the remaining amount (remaining amount of the current day), and the usage amount (usage amount of the current day) into the history information table 201.

[0132] When the toner bottle 31K is replaced with a new one, the history processing unit 143 writes, via the input / output circuit 167, the history information consisting of the current date and time, the remaining amount, and the replacement information "replacement" into the history information table 201. This history information does not include the usage amount.

[0133] (5) Peak determination unit 144 The peak determination unit 144 (peak determination means) determines the peak usage amount in the variation of the usage amount from among the usage amounts per unit time that exceed the threshold value Rd_th (first threshold value) in the usage amounts in the history information table 201 as follows.

[0134] The peak determination unit 144 will be described as an example using FIG. 9.

[0135] The peak determination unit 144 stores the threshold value Rd_th in advance. In the graph 341 of FIG. 9, the threshold value Rd_th (348) is shown.

[0136] The peak determination unit 144 executes the following under the control of the overall control unit 141.

[0137] The peak determination unit 144 reads out, via the input / output circuit 167, the investigation period 231 from the memory circuit 160. As an example, the investigation period 231 is from the start date 231a "2021.1.10" to the end date 231b "2021.4.09" as shown in FIG. 8(b).

[0138] Next, the peak determination unit 144 reads out all the history information including the date and time within the investigation period 231 from the history information table 201 stored in the storage circuit 160 via the input / output circuit 167. That is, as an example, the peak determination unit 144 reads out all the history information including the date and time from the start date 231a "2021.1.10" to the end date 231b "2021.4.09".

[0139] Next, the peak determination unit 144 extracts all the history information including the usage amount exceeding the threshold value Rd_th from all the read history information. As an example, in the case shown in FIG. 9, the history information included in the sections 351, 352, and 353 is extracted. This is because the usage amounts within the history information included in the sections 351, 352, and 353 exceed the threshold value Rd_th.

[0140] Next, the peak determination unit 144 identifies all the continuous sections in which the usage amount increases monotonically and then decreases monotonically from all the extracted history information. As an example, in the case shown in FIG. 9, the section 351 corresponds to the section in which the usage amount increases monotonically and then decreases monotonically. The same applies to the sections 352 and 353.

[0141] Next, the peak determination unit 144 extracts the maximum usage amount (maximum value) from each of the identified sections. As an example, in the case shown in FIG. 9, the maximum usage amounts Rd2(345), Rd9(346), and Rd13(347) within the sections 351, 352, and 353 are extracted.

[0142] Next, the peak determination unit 144 calculates the average value Rd_max (peak usage amount) of the extracted maximum usage amounts by the following formula.

[0143] Average value Rd_max = (ΣRdi) / n Here, ΣRdi indicates the sum of the extracted maximum usage amounts, and n indicates the number of the extracted maximum usage amounts.

[0144] For example, in the case of the example shown in FIG. 9, the peak determination unit 144 calculates the arithmetic mean as follows (362).

[0145] Average value Rd_max = (Rd2 + Rd9 + Rd13) / 3 Next, the peak determination unit 144 writes the calculated average value Rd_max to the storage circuit 160 via the input / output circuit 167.

[0146] (6) Period calculation unit 145 and timing calculation unit 146 The period calculation unit 145 and the timing calculation unit 146 will be described as an example with reference to FIG. 9.

[0147] The period calculation unit 145 (period calculation means) executes the following under the control of the overall control unit 141.

[0148] The period calculation unit 145 reads the average value Rd_max from the storage circuit 160 via the input / output circuit 167.

[0149] The period calculation unit 145 acquires the remaining amount at the current time from the remaining amount detection unit 148 and calculates the remaining number of days using the following formula (378).

[0150] Remaining number of days = Remaining amount at the current time / Average value Rd_max Here, the current time is the time point (judgment date 375) when the period calculation unit 145 performs processing.

[0151] The timing calculation unit 146 executes the following under the control of the overall control unit 141.

[0152] The timing calculation unit 146 (timing calculation means) acquires the current date and time (the current day) from the time acquisition unit 142 and calculates the next toner bottle replacement scheduled date 376 using the following formula (379).

[0153] Next replacement scheduled date = Current day + Remaining number of days Here, the date when the toner remaining amount is acquired from the remaining amount detection unit 148 and the above current date and time are the same day.

[0154] Thus, the original straight line 382 (prediction line) shown in FIG. 9 is replaced by a new straight line 383 (prediction line).

[0155] Next, the timing calculation unit 146 writes the calculated next replacement scheduled date into the storage circuit 160 via the input / output circuit 167. Further, the timing calculation unit 146 outputs the next replacement scheduled date to the operation panel 19 via the input / output circuit 158. The operation panel 19 displays the next replacement scheduled date.

[0156] Next, the timing calculation unit 146 controls the network communication circuit 156 to transmit the next replacement scheduled date to the server device 4.

[0157] 1.7 Server Device 4 As shown in FIG. 10, the server device 4 is composed of a CPU 401, a ROM 402, a RAM 403, a hard disk 404, a network communication circuit 405, an input / output circuit 406, etc.

[0158] The RAM 403 provides a work area for program execution by the CPU 401.

[0159] The ROM 402 stores a control program and the like for executing the functions of the server device 4.

[0160] The CPU 401 operates according to the control program stored in the ROM 402.

[0161] The CPU 401, the ROM 402, and the RAM 403 constitute the main control unit 411.

[0162] Further, when the CPU 401 operates according to the control program, the main control unit 411 functions.

[0163] The network communication circuit 405 receives data from an external device via the network 2. For example, the network communication circuit 405 receives the next scheduled replacement date from the image forming apparatus 5 and outputs the received next scheduled replacement date to the main control unit 411. Also, the network communication circuit 405 transmits data to an external device via the network 2.

[0164] The input / output circuit 406 reads data from the hard disk 404 and writes data to the hard disk 404. For example, the input / output circuit 406 writes the next scheduled replacement date to the hard disk 404 under the control of the main control unit 411.

[0165] As shown in FIG. 10, the hard disk 404 has an area for storing the next scheduled replacement date 421.

[0166] The main control unit 411 controls the input / output circuit 406, the network communication circuit 405, etc. in a unified manner. For example, the main control unit 411 controls so as to write the received next scheduled replacement date to the hard disk 404 via the input / output circuit 406.

[0167] When the next scheduled replacement date is written to the hard disk 404, the administrator of the server device 4 arranges for a new toner bottle to arrive at the office where the image forming apparatus 5 is installed by the next scheduled replacement date written to the hard disk 404.

[0168] 1.8 Operations in the Image Forming Apparatus 5 The operations in the image forming apparatus 5 will be described.

[0169] (1) Overall Operations of the History Process, Peak Determination Process, and Period Time Process The overall operations of the history process, peak determination process, and period time process will be described using the flowchart shown in FIG. 11.

[0170] The time acquisition unit 142 acquires the current time from the clock circuit 163 under the control of the overall control unit 141 (step S101).

[0171] The overall control unit 141 determines whether the current time acquired by the time acquisition unit 142 is the processing time. As an example, it determines whether the current time is 5:25 am (step S102). If it is determined that the current time is not the processing time (''NO'' in step S102), the overall control unit 141 returns the control to step S101 and waits until the processing time arrives.

[0172] If it is determined that the current time is the processing time (''YES'' in step S102), the history processing unit 143 acquires, under the control of the overall control unit 141, the remaining amount of toner (the remaining amount for the current day) stored in the toner bottle 31K from the remaining amount detection unit 148 (step S103). Next, the history processing unit 143 calculates the usage amount by subtracting the remaining amount for the current day from the remaining amount for the previous day (step S104). Next, the history processing unit 143 writes, via the input / output circuit 167, the history information consisting of the current date and time, the remaining amount (the remaining amount for the current day), and the usage amount into the history information table 201 (step S105).

[0173] Next, the peak determination unit 144 executes a peak determination process (step S106).

[0174] Next, the period calculation unit 145 and the timing calculation unit 146 execute a period and timing process (step S107).

[0175] Thus, the description of the operations regarding the history processing, peak determination processing, and period and timing processing for the current day is completed.

[0176] (2) Operations of the peak determination process The operations of the peak determination process will be described using the flowchart shown in FIG. 12.

[0177] Note that the operations described below are the details of step S106 in the flowchart shown in FIG. 11.

[0178] The peak determination unit 144 reads out the investigation period 231 from the storage circuit 160 via the input / output circuit 167 (step S121).

[0179] Next, the peak determination unit 144 reads out all the history information including the date and time within the investigation period 231 from the history information table 201 stored in the storage circuit 160 via the input / output circuit 167 (step S122).

[0180] Next, the peak determination unit 144 extracts all the history information including the usage amount exceeding the threshold value from all the read history information (step S123).

[0181] Next, the peak determination unit 144 identifies one or more continuous sections in which the usage amount increases and then decreases from all the extracted history information (step S124).

[0182] Next, the peak determination unit 144 extracts the maximum usage amount from each of the identified sections (step S125).

[0183] Next, the peak determination unit 144 calculates the average value Rd_max (peak usage amount) of the maximum usage amounts (step S126).

[0184] Next, the peak determination unit 144 writes the calculated average value Rd_max into the storage circuit 160 via the input / output circuit 167 (step S127).

[0185] Thus, the description of the operation of the peak determination process is completed.

[0186] (3) Operation of the period / time process The operation of the period / time process will be described using the flowchart shown in FIG. 13.

[0187] Note that the operations described below are the details of step S107 in the flowchart shown in FIG. 11.

[0188] The period calculation unit 145 reads out the average value Rd_max from the storage circuit 160 via the input / output circuit 167 (step S141).

[0189] The period calculation unit 145 acquires the remaining amount at the current time from the remaining amount detection unit 148, and calculates the remaining number of days by the following formula.

[0190] Remaining number of days = Remaining amount at the current time / Average value Rd_max (step S145) Next, the timing calculation unit 146 acquires the current date and time (the current day) from the time acquisition unit 142 (step S146), and calculates the next toner bottle replacement scheduled date.

[0191] Next toner bottle replacement scheduled date = Current day + Remaining number of days (step S147) Next, the timing calculation unit 146 writes the next toner bottle replacement scheduled date into the storage circuit 160 via the input / output circuit 167 (step S148).

[0192] Next, the timing calculation unit 146 controls the network communication circuit 156 to transmit the next toner bottle replacement scheduled date to the server device 4. The network communication circuit 156 transmits the next toner bottle replacement scheduled date to the server device 4 (step S149).

[0193] The network communication circuit 405 of the server device 4 receives the next toner bottle replacement scheduled date from the image forming apparatus 5 (step S149). The main control unit 411 controls the input / output circuit 406 to write the received next toner bottle replacement scheduled date into the hard disk 404. The input / output circuit 406 writes the next toner bottle replacement scheduled date into the hard disk 404 (step S150).

[0194] The administrator of the server device 4 arranges for a new toner bottle to arrive at the office where the image forming apparatus 5 is installed by the next toner bottle replacement scheduled date written into the hard disk 404.

[0195] 1.9 Summary According to the above embodiment, from the history information, a plurality of maximum values of the usage amount exceeding the first threshold are acquired, and the average value of the acquired maximum values is calculated as the peak usage amount. The existence of the maximum value of the usage amount exceeding the first threshold indicates that there has been a sudden change in the usage amount of the toner, which is a consumable, in the past, particularly a change in which the usage amount has increased rapidly. Using the remaining amount of the consumable and the calculated peak usage amount, the remaining available period of the consumable is predicted, and the scheduled replacement date of the container for storing the consumable is predicted. The remaining period and the scheduled replacement date predicted in this way reflect the sudden change in the usage amount. In this way, when a sudden change in the usage amount of the consumable occurs, there is an excellent effect that the remaining period and the scheduled replacement date corresponding to the sudden change in the usage amount can be predicted. In particular, when the remaining amount of the consumable is close to empty, this effect is achieved.

[0196] 2 Other Modification Examples Although the present disclosure has been described based on the above embodiment, it is not limited to the above embodiment. It may be as follows.

[0197] (1) When using the history information stored in the history information table 201, it may be as follows.

[0198] (a) The peak determination unit 144 may extract a plurality of maximum usage amounts by using only the usage amounts within a predetermined period among all the history information stored in the history information table 201, that is, excluding the usage amounts outside the predetermined period. For example, old history information outside the predetermined period may be excluded. For example, when two years' worth of history information is included, among the two years, the history of the first half year may be excluded, and an investigation period may be set within the second half year. Thereby, only the tendency of the recent transition of the toner consumption rate can be reflected in the prediction.

[0199] (b) The peak determination unit 144 may extract a plurality of maximum usage amounts using the history information after the point in time when the remaining amount of toner contained in the toner bottle becomes equal to or less than a predetermined amount (remaining amount threshold) among all the history information stored in the history information table 201. The remaining amount threshold is, for example, 50% of the initial filling amount of the toner bottle. This is because it is not necessary to accurately predict the toner bottle replacement date when the remaining amount of the toner bottle is large. Note that the remaining amount threshold may be determined according to the type of toner and the usage situation of the toner.

[0200] (c) The peak determination unit 144 may exclude the history information including an extremely large usage amount equal to or greater than a preset second threshold among all the history information stored in the history information table 201. Here, the second threshold is a value extremely larger than the above-described threshold Rd_th (first threshold). Usage amounts equal to or greater than the second threshold occur very rarely. For example, when normally 1000 to 2000 prints are made in a day, in this case, 100,000 prints, which is extremely more than 1000 to 2000, are made specially on this day. Such history information is excluded because the occurrence frequency is extremely low. The second threshold may be determined according to the type of toner, the usage situation of the toner, and the like.

[0201] (d) The period calculation unit 145 may calculate the remaining period by dividing the remaining amount obtained by subtracting the usage amount of toner within the period required for delivering the toner bottle that houses the toner from the remaining amount of toner acquired from the remaining amount detection unit 148 by the peak usage amount. Here, the toner bottle is delivered from the service center that manages and delivers the toner bottle to the office where the image forming apparatus 5 is installed. The period required for delivering the above-described toner bottle is the time required when delivering from the service center to the office.

[0202] Thereby, the toner bottle replacement date can be determined in consideration of the time required for delivering the toner bottle.

[0203] (e) As described above, the toner bottle is delivered from the service center that manages and delivers the toner bottle to the office where the image forming apparatus 5 is installed. The period required for the above-described delivery of the toner bottle may be set as the above-described investigation period 231 (FIGS. 8(a) and 9).

[0204] (2) The image forming apparatus 5 may be configured as follows.

[0205] The image forming apparatus 5 may include a timing determination unit (timing determination means) that determines the shipping timing of the toner bottle that houses the consumable using the scheduled replacement date (scheduled replacement time) calculated by the timing calculation unit 146. The network communication circuit 156 (notification means) notifies the determined shipping timing to the server device 4 (management device) that manages the toner bottle that houses the consumable.

[0206] (3) The operation panel 19 of the image forming apparatus 5 may be configured to accept an input of the allowable stock number of the toner bottle from the user. Here, the allowable stock number is the maximum number of toner bottles that can store toner, which is a consumable, in the user's office.

[0207] It is preferable to set the allowable stock number to be small, and the setting without stocking (allowable stock number = 0) is the basis.

[0208] For example, when the allowable stock number = 0 is set, if there is no stock, arrangements are made so that one toner bottle is delivered on the next scheduled replacement date. On the other hand, when the allowable stock number = 0 is set, if there is stock, the toner bottle is not delivered on the next scheduled replacement date.

[0209] When the allowable stock number = 1 is set, if there is no stock, arrangements are made so that two toner bottles are delivered on the next scheduled replacement date. When the allowable stock number = 1 is set, if the stock = 1, arrangements are made so that one toner bottle is delivered on the next scheduled replacement date. When the allowable stock number = 1 is set, if the stock = 2, the toner bottle is not delivered on the next scheduled replacement date.

[0210] In addition, in the case of a user with a high toner consumption rate (or an office with a high toner consumption rate), the toner consumption amount is extremely large, and there is a risk that the toner bottle will become empty earlier than the scheduled toner bottle replacement date and the delivery of a new toner bottle will be delayed. Therefore, for a user (office) whose toner consumption rate exceeds a predetermined value, it may be an operation to increase the allowable stock number.

[0211] In addition, in the case of a user with a low toner consumption rate, when the near-empty state of the toner in the toner bottle is detected by a detection sensor that detects the near-empty state of the toner regardless of the predicted timing of toner bottle replacement, the image forming apparatus 5 notifies the user of the near-empty state of the toner by display or voice, and then the user may request the service center to ship the toner bottle.

[0212] Even when the image forming apparatus 5 notifies the user of the near-empty state of the toner, a small amount of toner is accommodated in the toner bottle, and a user with a low toner consumption rate can perform printing without immediately running out of toner.

[0213] Here, the timing determination unit may determine the shipping timing of the toner bottle based on the scheduled replacement date, the inventory information of the toner bottle in the office (facility) where the image forming apparatus 5 is installed, and the allowable stock number of consumables in the office.

[0214] Here, the allowable stock number of toner bottles in the office may be determined based on the history of the usage amount per unit time of consumables stored in the storage circuit 160 (storage means).

[0215] In addition, when the usage amount per unit time of consumables stored in the storage circuit 160 is larger than a predetermined value, the allowable stock number may be determined to be 1 or more.

[0216] Also, when the usage amount of the consumable stored in the memory circuit 160 per unit time is smaller than a predetermined value, the allowable stock number may be determined to be 0.

[0217] (4) In the above-described embodiment, the object to be replaced is the toner bottle that houses the toner which is a consumable, but it may be other consumables that constitute the image forming apparatus. For example, it may be a drum unit including a photoreceptor drum, a transfer unit including an intermediate transfer belt, or the like.

[0218] In the case of the photoreceptor drum, the cumulative number of rotations can be regarded as the usage amount, and in the case of the intermediate transfer belt, the cumulative number of circumferential distances can be regarded as the usage amount.

[0219] (5) The image forming apparatus may be a monochrome multifunction machine. Also, the image forming apparatus may be a printing apparatus that does not include the image reader 11 shown in FIG. 1.

[0220] (6) When it is determined by the detection sensor that the remaining amount of toner in the toner bottle is equal to or less than a predetermined value, that is, when it is detected that the toner has become near empty, the timing determination unit may determine the shipping timing so as to immediately ship the toner bottle.

[0221] (7) The image forming apparatus 5 may be configured as follows.

[0222] (a) The image forming apparatus 5 may include a setting unit (setting means) that sets the time required for delivering the toner bottle from the service center that supplies the toner bottle to the office where the image forming apparatus 5 is installed.

[0223] The timing determination unit may determine the shipping timing of the toner bottle using the set replacement scheduled date and the time required for delivering the toner bottle. That is, the shipping timing may be determined by subtracting the time required for delivery from the replacement scheduled date.

[0224] (b) The setting unit may set the time required for toner bottle delivery based on the address of the facility where the image forming apparatus 5 is installed and the address of the delivery source (service center) that delivers the toner bottle.

[0225] For example, the setting unit may set the time required for toner bottle delivery according to the distance between the address of the facility and the address of the delivery source.

[0226] (8) The image forming apparatus 5 may be as follows.

[0227] The graph 501 shown in FIG. 14 shows the relationship between the passage of time (days) and the toner consumption rate having variations. The horizontal axis 502 indicates the passage of time, and the vertical axis 503 indicates the toner consumption rate. The change line 511 indicates the toner consumption rate that varies with the passage of time. Here, the graph 501 shows a threshold value Rd_th (first threshold value, 504). The graph 501 also shows a threshold line 512 obtained by extending the threshold value Rd_th (504) in the horizontal axis direction.

[0228] Using the history information stored in the history information table 201, the peak determination unit 144 virtually draws the change line 511 as shown in FIG. 14 and obtains the area of the closed region surrounded by the change line 511 and the threshold line 512.

[0229] FIG. 14 shows, as an example, the area Ai of the closed region 508 surrounded by the change line 511 and the threshold line 512 for the history information including the date and time within a predetermined interval i (513) among the history information including the usage amount equal to or greater than the threshold value Rd_th (504).

[0230] The peak determination unit 144 calculates the average usage amount Rdi in the interval i by the following formula.

[0231] Rdi = Area Ai / Length of interval i (number of days) + Rd_th (521) The peak determination unit 144 calculates the average value Rd_max by the following formula.

[0232] Rd_max = ΣRdi / n (522) Here, ΣRdi represents the sum of Rdi, and n represents the number of Rdi.

[0233] As described above, the average value Rd_max can be calculated by using the area of the closed region surrounded by the change line 511 and the threshold line 512.

[0234] (9) In the above embodiment, the main control unit 140 and the memory circuit 160 of the image forming apparatus constitute a prediction device. However, this is not limiting.

[0235] The server device 4 may include a main control unit and a memory circuit corresponding to the main control unit 140 and the memory circuit of the image forming apparatus, and the main control unit and the memory circuit of the server device 4 may constitute a prediction device. When the remaining amount detection unit 148 of the image forming apparatus 5 detects the remaining amount of toner, the network communication circuit 156 transmits the detected remaining amount of toner to the server device 4 via the network 2. The server device 4 receives the remaining amount of toner and updates the history information table stored in the memory circuit of the server device 4 based on the received remaining amount of toner. The prediction device of the server device 4 predicts the remaining available period of the toner by using the history information table. Further, the replacement time of the toner bottle that houses the toner, which is a consumable, is predicted by using the remaining available period of the toner.

[0236] In addition, household electrical appliances such as mobile phones, passenger cars, trains, etc., which are equipped with a secondary battery (container) for storing electric power, may also be equipped with the above prediction device. In this case, the consumable is the electric power stored in the secondary battery, and the usage amount per unit time is the electric power usage amount per unit time. The prediction device includes the same main control unit and memory circuit as described above. The memory circuit stores a history information table including history information of past power usage amounts. The prediction device acquires the remaining amount of power of the secondary battery and updates the history information table based on the acquired remaining amount of power. The prediction device predicts the remaining available operation time of the secondary battery using the history information table. Further, the date and time when the remaining available operation time is predicted is acquired, and the charging scheduled time (filling scheduled time) of the secondary battery is calculated by adding the remaining available operation time of the secondary battery to the acquired date and time. When the charging scheduled time arrives, the secondary battery is charged.

[0237] (10) In the above embodiment, the average value Rd_max (peak usage amount) of the maximum usage amount is calculated by the formula (average value Rd_max = (ΣRdi) / n). However, it is not limited to this.

[0238] The peak usage amount may be the past maximum usage amount, within the range of ±10% of the maximum usage fee (preferably within the range of +10% to -5%), or the usage amount (for example, the average usage amount) based on the maximum usage amount (including within the range of ±10% of the maximum usage amount (preferably including within the range of +10% to -5% of the maximum usage amount)).

[0239] (11) The above embodiment and the above modification may be combined respectively.

Industrial Applicability

[0240] The prediction device according to the present disclosure has an excellent effect that when a rapid change in the usage amount of a consumable occurs, it can predict the remaining available period of the consumable in response to the rapid change in the usage amount, and is useful as a technique for predicting the replacement time of the consumable.

Explanation of Signs

[0241] 1 Delivery System 2 Network 4 Server Device 5 Image Forming Device 11 Image Reader 12 Printer 13 Paper Feeding Unit 20Y~20K Image Forming Unit 21 Intermediate Transfer Belt 22 Secondary Transfer Roller 25 Intermediate Transfer Belt 31Y~31K Toner Bottle 32Y~32K Detection Sensor 50 Fixing Unit 100 Control Circuit 101 CPU 140 Main Control Unit 141 Overall Control Unit 142 Time Acquisition Unit 143 History Processing Unit 144 Peak Determination Unit 145 Period Calculation Unit 146 Timing Calculation Unit 147 Coverage Counter 148 Remaining Amount Calculation Unit 151 CPU 152 ROM 153 RAM 154 Image Memory 155 Image Processing Circuit 156 Network Communication Circuit 157 Scanner Control Circuit 158 Input / Output Circuit 159 Printer Control Circuit 160 Memory Circuit 162 Output Circuit 163 Timing Circuit 166 Bus 167 Input / Output Circuit 401 CPU 402 ROM 403 RAM 404 Hard Disk 405 Network Communication Circuit 406 Input / Output Circuit

Claims

1. A prediction device for predicting the remaining available period of a consumable, comprising: a storage means for storing a history of the usage amount of the consumable; a remaining amount acquisition means for acquiring the remaining amount of the consumable; a peak determination means for determining a peak usage amount in the variation of the usage amount from among the usage amounts per unit time exceeding a threshold value in the history; a period calculation means for calculating the remaining available period of the consumable using the remaining amount and the peak usage amount The prediction device is characterized by comprising the above.

2. The period calculation means divides the acquired remaining amount by the peak usage amount to calculate the remaining available period of the consumable. The prediction device according to claim 1, characterized by the above.

3. a time acquisition means for acquiring the time when the remaining amount is acquired; a time calculation means for adding the remaining period calculated by the period calculation means to the acquired time to calculate the scheduled replacement time for replacing the container storing the consumable with a new container or the scheduled filling time for newly filling the container storing the consumable with the consumable. The prediction device according to claim 2, characterized by the above.

4. When a plurality of intervals including the usage amount per unit time exceeding the threshold value are extracted from the usage amounts in the history, the peak determination means extracts the maximum usage amount from each of the plurality of extracted intervals, and determines the peak usage amount using the plurality of extracted maximum usage amounts. The prediction device according to claim 2, characterized by the above.

5. The determination of the peak usage amount is performed by calculating the arithmetic mean of the plurality of extracted maximum usage amounts. The prediction device according to claim 4, characterized by the above.

6. When the threshold value is a first threshold value and a value larger than the first threshold value is a second threshold value, the peak determination means excludes the usage amounts larger than the second threshold value from the history of the usage amounts and extracts a plurality of maximum usage amounts. The prediction device according to claim 4, characterized by the above.

7. The peak determination means excludes the usage amounts outside a predetermined period from the history of the usage amounts and extracts a plurality of maximum usage amounts. The prediction device according to claim 4, characterized by the above.

8. The peak determination means extracts a plurality of maximum usage amounts using the usage amounts after the time when the remaining amount of the consumable becomes equal to or less than the remaining amount threshold value from the history of the usage amounts. The prediction device according to claim 4, characterized by the above.

9. The period calculation means divides the remaining amount obtained by subtracting the usage amount within the period required for delivering the container storing the consumable from the acquired remaining amount by the peak usage amount to calculate the remaining period. The prediction device according to claim 1, characterized in that.

10. A prediction method used in a prediction device that stores a history of the usage amount of a consumable and predicts the remaining period during which the consumable can be used, A remaining amount acquisition step of acquiring the remaining amount of the consumable; A peak determination step of determining a peak usage amount in the variation of the usage amount from among the usage amounts per unit time exceeding a threshold value in the history; A period calculation step of calculating the remaining period during which the consumable can be used using the remaining amount and the peak usage amount A prediction method characterized by including.

11. Comprising the prediction device according to claim 1 An image forming apparatus, characterized in that.

12. The prediction device further includes Time acquisition means for acquiring the time when the remaining amount was acquired; Time calculation means for adding the remaining period to the acquired time to calculate a scheduled replacement time for replacing the container storing the consumable with a new container, and The image forming apparatus further includes Time determination means for determining the shipping time of a new container using the scheduled replacement time calculated by the prediction device; Notification means for notifying the determined shipping time to a management device that manages the container The image forming apparatus according to claim 11, characterized by comprising.

13. The time determination means determines the shipping time of the container based on the scheduled replacement time, the inventory information of the container in the facility where the image forming apparatus is installed, and the allowable inventory number of the container in the facility. The image forming apparatus according to claim 12, characterized in that.

14. The allowable inventory number is determined based on the history of the usage amount per unit time of the consumable stored in the storage means. The image forming apparatus according to claim 13, characterized in that.

15. When the usage amount per unit time of the consumable stored in the storage means is greater than a predetermined value, the allowable inventory number is determined to be 1 or more. The image forming apparatus according to claim 14, characterized in that.

16. When the usage amount per unit time of the consumable stored in the storage means is less than a predetermined value, the allowable inventory number is determined to be 0. The image forming apparatus according to claim 14, characterized in that.

17. Furthermore, a detection unit that determines whether or not the remaining amount of the consumable is near empty, when the detection unit determines that the remaining amount of the consumable is near empty, timing determination means for determining the shipping timing so as to immediately ship a new container The image forming apparatus according to claim 11, characterized by comprising.

18. Furthermore, comprising setting means for setting the time required for the delivery of the container, The timing determination means determines the shipping timing of the container using the scheduled replacement timing and the time required for the delivery of the container The image forming apparatus according to claim 12, characterized by comprising.

19. The setting means sets the time required for the delivery of the container based on the address of the facility where the image forming apparatus is installed and the address of the delivery source for delivering the container The image forming apparatus according to claim 18, characterized by comprising.

20. A delivery system comprising the image forming apparatus according to claim 12 and a management apparatus Characterized by that.

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