Processing device, processing method, and program

Abstract

To accurately determine a target furnace temperature in out-of-the-ordinary operation.SOLUTION: A treatment device 300 calculates an estimated value of furnace temperature in out-of-the-ordinary operation on the basis of a first influencer affecting the estimated value of furnace temperature in out-of-the-ordinary operation, and calculates an estimated value of physical amount representing a carbonized state of coke in out-of-the-ordinary operation on the basis of a second influencer affecting the estimated value of physical amount. The treatment device 300 determines a furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref on the basis of the estimated value of furnace temperature and the estimated value of physical amount.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a processing apparatus, a processing method, and a program, and is particularly suitable for use in executing a process including determining a furnace temperature in a coke oven.

Background Art

[0002] In a coke oven called a chamber type, a plurality of carbonization chambers and a plurality of combustion chambers are alternately arranged one by one through a furnace wall formed of refractory bricks or the like. In the coke production process, first, coal is charged into the carbonization chamber (such charging of coal into the carbonization chamber is also referred to as "coal charging", and the carbonization chamber is also referred to as a "kiln"). Then, heat is continuously applied to the coal in the carbonization chamber charged with coal from the combustion chamber through the furnace wall to carbonize the coal to produce a coke cake (hereinafter, in the following description, the "coke cake" is also simply referred to as "coke"). When the carbonization is completed, the doors at both ends of the carbonization chamber are opened, and the coke is discharged by a device called an extrusion ram (such extrusion of coke from the carbonization chamber is also referred to as "kiln discharging").

[0003] As a kiln discharging and coal charging operation of a coke oven, a so-called block kiln discharging method is adopted. The kiln discharging and coal charging operation is an operation of pushing out coke from the carbonization chamber by an extrusion ram and then charging coal into the carbonization chamber. In the block kiln discharging method, all the carbonization chambers are divided into Da (Da is an integer of 2 or more) blocks, and the kiln discharging and coal charging operation is executed in units of the divided blocks. This block is also referred to as a "row", and each carbonization chamber is assigned to one of the rows so that a plurality of carbonization chambers every Da in the order of the carbonization chambers belong to the same row. For example, numbers (carbonization chamber No.) are assigned to each carbonization chamber in ascending order from "1" in the order of the carbonization chambers. When the number of rows (= Da) is 5, the first row (carbonization chamber No. 1, 6, 11,...), the second row (carbonization chamber No. 2, 7, 12,...), the third row (carbonization chamber No. 3, 8, 13,...), the fourth row (carbonization chamber No. 4, 9, 14,...), and the fifth row (carbonization chamber No. 5, 10, 15,...) are used to divide all the carbonization chambers at 5-kiln intervals, and the kiln discharging and coal charging operation is executed in units of rows.

[0004] Patent Document 1 discloses a technique for obtaining the temperature (furnace temperature) of a combustion chamber for achieving a target coke temperature as a technique for controlling the input heat amount to such a coke oven. Specifically, Patent Document 1 discloses a technique for calculating target furnace temperatures for each case from the past to the future from the predicted amount of coal charged, predicted moisture content, planned carbonization time, and actual furnace temperature of the coal to be charged in the future, and calculating the weighted average value of the target furnace temperatures for each case as the target furnace temperature for controlling the input heat amount.

[0005] In such a coke oven, during steady operation, the above-described coke discharging and coal charging operations (coal charging operation and extrusion operation) are repeated at substantially constant cycles. However, when the coke discharging and coal charging operations are temporarily suspended due to equipment maintenance or the like, it becomes unsteady operation.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0006]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0007] However, the technique described in Patent Document 1 performs calculation of the target furnace temperature using the predicted amount of coal charged and the predicted moisture content, and is a technique premised on steady operation. Further, in the technique described in Patent Document 1, the target furnace temperature for controlling the input heat amount is calculated without considering the time change of the carbonization state. Therefore, the technique described in Patent Document 1 cannot consider how the carbonization state changes during unsteady operation. Thus, the technique described in Patent Document 1 cannot accurately determine the target furnace temperature during unsteady operation.

[0008] The present invention has been made in view of the above problems, and an object thereof is to accurately determine the target furnace temperature during unsteady operation.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0009] The processing device of the present invention is a processing device that determines a target furnace temperature, which is a target value during unsteady operation of the furnace temperature, which is the temperature of the combustion chamber in a coke oven. Based on a first influencing factor, which is a factor affecting the predicted value of the furnace temperature during the unsteady operation, the predicted value of the furnace temperature during the unsteady operation is calculated. Based on a second influencing factor, which is a factor affecting the predicted value of a physical quantity representing the carbonization state of coke during the unsteady operation, a predicted value calculating means for calculating the predicted value of the physical quantity during the unsteady operation, and based on the predicted value of the furnace temperature during the unsteady operation and the predicted value of the physical quantity during the unsteady operation, a target furnace temperature determining means for determining a target furnace temperature trajectory, which is the time change of the target furnace temperature, are provided.

[0010] The processing method of the present invention is a processing method that determines a target furnace temperature, which is a target value during unsteady operation of the furnace temperature, which is the temperature of the combustion chamber in a coke oven. Based on a first influencing factor, which is a factor affecting the predicted value of the furnace temperature during the unsteady operation, the predicted value of the furnace temperature during the unsteady operation is calculated. Based on a second influencing factor, which is a factor affecting the predicted value of a physical quantity representing the carbonization state of coke during the unsteady operation, a predicted value calculating step for calculating the predicted value of the physical quantity during the unsteady operation, and based on the predicted value of the furnace temperature during the unsteady operation and the predicted value of the physical quantity during the unsteady operation, a target furnace temperature determining step for determining a target furnace temperature trajectory, which is the time change of the target furnace temperature, are provided.

[0011] The program of the present invention is for causing a computer to function as each means of the processing device.

Effect of the Invention

[0012] According to the present invention, a predicted value of the furnace temperature during unsteady operation and a predicted value of a physical quantity representing the carbonization state of coke during unsteady operation are calculated, and a target furnace temperature trajectory is determined based on the predicted value of the furnace temperature and the predicted value of the physical quantity. Therefore, the target furnace temperature during unsteady operation can be determined so that the prediction results of the furnace temperature and the physical quantity representing the carbonization state of coke during unsteady operation are reflected. Thus, the target furnace temperature during unsteady operation can be accurately determined.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0013]

Figure 1

Figure 2A

Figure 2B

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6A

Figure 6B

Figure 7

Figure 8

Embodiments for Carrying Out the Invention

[0014] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. <Outline of Coke Oven and Coke Manufacturing Process> First, with reference to FIGS. 1, 2A, and 2B, an example of the schematic configuration of the coke oven 1 and an outline of an example of the coke production process will be described. FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the coke oven and the coke production process. FIG. 2A is a diagram for explaining an example of the furnace group temperature. FIG. 2B is a diagram showing an example of the state in which coke is being pushed out from the carbonization chamber. Note that FIGS. 2A and 2B show a perspective view of the interior. As shown in FIGS. 1 and 2A, in the coke oven 1, the carbonization chambers (ovens) 2 and the combustion chambers 3 are alternately arranged via the furnace wall 4. The carbonization chamber 2 carbonizes the charged coal to obtain coke. The combustion chamber 3 keeps the carbonization chamber 2 at a high temperature by burning the fuel gas.

[0015] As described in the background art section, in the coke production process using the coke oven 1, a so-called block discharging method is adopted for the discharging and charging operation. The discharging and charging operation is an operation of pushing out coke from the carbonization chamber 2 by the extrusion ram 7 as shown in Fig. 2B, and then supplying coal to the carbonization chamber 2. In the block discharging method, all the carbonization chambers 2 are divided into Da (Da is an integer of 2 or more) rows, and the discharging and charging operation is executed in units of the divided rows. Each carbonization chamber 2 is assigned to one of the rows so that a plurality of carbonization chambers 2 every Da in the arrangement order of the carbonization chambers 2 belong to the same row. In this embodiment, a case where the discharging and charging operation is executed by the block discharging method with Da being 5 is exemplified. In this case, for example, the carbonization chambers 2 of carbonization chamber No. 1, 6, 11, 16,... are assigned to row 1, the carbonization chambers 2 of carbonization chamber No. 2, 7, 12, 17,... are assigned to row 2, the carbonization chambers 2 of carbonization chamber No. 3, 8, 13, 18,... are assigned to row 3, the carbonization chambers 2 of carbonization chamber No. 4, 9, 14, 19,... are assigned to row 4, and the carbonization chambers 2 of carbonization chamber No. 5, 10, 15, 20,... are assigned to row 5. In the order of rows, the discharging and charging operation is executed in sequence from the youngest carbonization chamber 2. For example, the discharging and charging operation of the carbonization chambers 2 assigned to row 1 is executed in the order of the carbonization chamber 2 of carbonization chamber No. 1, the carbonization chamber 2 of carbonization chamber No. 6, the carbonization chamber 2 of carbonization chamber No. 11, the carbonization chamber 2 of carbonization chamber No. 16,.... Also, in order to prevent a rapid temperature drop, the discharging and charging order is, for example, in the order of row 1, row 3, row 5, row 2, row 4. The time from the timing when the discharging and charging operation is completed in a certain row to the timing when the discharging and charging operation is completed in the next row is called the row time. The row time is generally about 3 to 6 hours. Note that this embodiment is not limited to the block discharging method. For example, in the following description, if the row (block) is treated as an individual carbonization chamber 2, it can also be applied to the case where the discharging and charging operation is executed in units of one carbonization chamber 2.

[0016] In the coke oven manufacturing process, furnace group control is executed to collectively adjust the input heat of all combustion chambers 3 and control the average carbonization state of each passage. That is, the input heat to the coke oven 1 is controlled by operating one regulating valve 5 installed for all combustion chambers 3. The regulating valve 5 is a valve for adjusting the flow rate of the mixed gas of fuel gas and combustion air. Further, the regulating valve 5 is operated via an actuator (not shown) under the control of a processing device 300 described later. The representative value of the temperature of all combustion chambers 3 is called the furnace group temperature. For example, as shown in FIG. 2A, thermometers 6 for measuring the ambient temperature of the combustion chambers 3 are installed in a plurality of combustion chambers 3 among all combustion chambers 3, and the average temperature of the combustion chambers 3 where the thermometers 6 are installed is defined as the furnace group temperature. In the present embodiment, a case where the furnace temperature, which is the temperature in the combustion chamber 3 of the coke oven 1, is the furnace group temperature is exemplified. Note that the method of the present embodiment is not limited to the case of collectively adjusting the input heat of all combustion chambers 3. For example, when performing the charging operation for discharging the coke oven by unit of one carbonization chamber 2, a regulating valve and an actuator may be installed in each combustion chamber 3 to control the carbonization state (input heat) for each carbonization chamber 2.

[0017] Further, the thermometer 6 may be installed in each of all combustion chambers 3 or only in some of the combustion chambers 3. And, for example, thermometers 6 may be installed in all combustion chambers 3, and the temperature of each combustion chamber 3 may be defined as the temperature (furnace temperature) of that combustion chamber 3. Also, as described above, the coke is pushed out of the carbonization chamber 2 by the extrusion ram 7. In the example shown in FIG. 2B, the coke pushed out of the carbonization chamber 2 by the extrusion ram 7 is discharged via the guide car 9 to a fire extinguishing vehicle (not shown) disposed below the guide car 9, and is transported to the next process by the fire extinguishing vehicle. Note that the guide car 9 moves to the position of the carbonization chamber 2 where the charging operation for discharging the coke is performed. In FIG. 2B, after the coke produced in the carbonization chamber 2 located below FIG. 2B is discharged via the guide car 9 to a fire extinguishing vehicle (not shown) and the charging operation for discharging the coke is completed, the guide car 9 moves to the carbonization chamber 2 located above FIG. 2B, which is represented by showing the guide car 9 after the movement by a two-dot chain line. Further, FIG. 2B illustrates a case where a thermometer 8 for measuring the temperature of the coke in a non-contact manner is installed inside the guide car 9. The thermometer 8 is installed so as to face the passage of the coke inside the guide car 9 through a window portion provided in the guide car 9. Thus, in the present embodiment, an example is shown in which the temperature of the coke immediately after it exits the carbonization chamber 2 during the extrusion operation (at the time of extrusion) of the coke is measured. Note that if the temperature of the coke discharged from the carbonization chamber 2 is measured, the coke temperature does not necessarily have to be measured in this manner. In the following description, the temperature of the coke exiting the carbonization chamber 2 in this way is also referred to as the coke temperature.

[0018] <Overview of the processing device 300> FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of a functional configuration of the processing device 300. The hardware of the processing device 300 is realized, for example, by using an information processing device including a central processing unit, a main storage device, an auxiliary storage device, an input device, and an output device. Further, the hardware of the processing device 300 may be realized by a PLC (Programmable Logic Controller) or may be realized by dedicated hardware such as an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit).

[0019] In this embodiment, the processing device 300 determines a target furnace temperature, which is the target value during the non-steady operation of the furnace temperature. As described above, in this embodiment, the case where the furnace temperature is the hearth temperature is exemplified. During steady operation, the above-described coke discharging and charging operation is repeatedly executed at a substantially constant cycle corresponding to the passing time. On the other hand, during non-steady operation, the coke discharging and charging operation is temporarily suspended due to equipment maintenance or the like. Therefore, during non-steady operation, for example, after temporarily reducing the hearth temperature to perform equipment maintenance or the like, the hearth temperature is increased. Non-steady operation is an operation during a period including a period in which the coke discharging and charging operation is temporarily suspended and a period in which at least one coke discharging and charging operation (charging and extrusion) is executed following the period. In this embodiment, non-steady operation is an operation during a period including a period in which the coke discharging and charging operation is temporarily suspended and a period in which the coke discharging and charging operation is executed in at least one pass following the period.

[0020] Further, in this embodiment, it is assumed that the start and end of non-steady operation are at the end of the coke discharging and charging operation (coke extrusion (discharging) operation). The end of the coke extrusion operation is the timing after the timing when all the coke in the carbonization chamber 2 has been extruded (discharged) from the carbonization chamber 2. The end of the coke extrusion operation may be, for example, the timing when all the coke has been discharged from the carbonization chamber 2, or the timing when the door of the carbonization chamber 2 is closed thereafter, or the timing when the temperature of the coke discharged from the carbonization chamber 2 is measured, or the timing when the transportation of the coke extruded from the carbonization chamber 2 to the next process is started. Also, it may be the timing when the coke extrusion operation is considered to be completed in the operation manual of the coke plant. In the following description, the period in which the coke discharging and charging operation is temporarily suspended is also referred to as the suspension period. In the case of an operation abnormality, the start of non-steady operation may be the timing when the operation abnormality is detected.

[0021] In FIG. 1, a processing device 300 that executes a process including determining a target furnace temperature in a coke oven 1 includes an acquisition unit 310, a predicted value calculation unit 320, a target furnace temperature determination unit 330, and a control unit 340. The acquisition unit 310 acquires various data used by the processing device 300. The data acquired by the acquisition unit 310 includes actual values of past operations from the present, schedule values of future operations, target values of operations, and various setting values used in calculations in the processing device 300. As forms of data acquisition, at least one of operations on an input device by an operator, reception from an external device, and reading from a portable storage medium is exemplified. Note that individual data is input to the processing device 300 and acquired by the acquisition unit 310 at arbitrary timings. Therefore, individual data does not necessarily have to be input to the processing device 300 and acquired by the acquisition unit 310 at the same timing.

[0022] The predicted value calculation unit 320 calculates a predicted value of the hearth temperature during non-steady operation based on a first influencing factor that is a factor affecting the predicted value of the hearth temperature during non-steady operation. Further, the predicted value calculation unit 320 calculates a predicted value of a physical quantity representing the carbonization state of coke based on a second influencing factor that is a factor affecting the predicted value of the physical quantity representing the carbonization state of coke during non-steady operation.

[0023] Note that the carbonization state of coke indicates the degree to which coal is carbonized (pyrolyzed) in the produced coke and is an index representing the quality of coke. Further, the first influencing factor is not particularly limited as long as it is a factor affecting the predicted value of the hearth temperature during non-steady operation. In the present embodiment, an example is given in which the first influencing factor includes a predicted value of the input heat amount to the combustion chamber 3 during non-steady operation and the hearth temperature at a timing before the prediction time of the predicted value of the hearth temperature during non-steady operation. Here, the hearth temperature at a timing before the prediction time of the predicted value of the hearth temperature may be a predicted value or an actual measurement value.

[0024] The second influencing factor is not particularly limited as long as it is a factor that affects the predicted value of a physical quantity representing the coking state of coke during unsteady operation (in this embodiment, the coke temperature at the end of unsteady operation). In this embodiment, a case where the predicted value of the furnace group temperature and the coking time are included in the second influencing factor is illustrated. The coking time is equal to the time required for the charging operation at the kiln outlet to be executed once for all Da(=5) patterns.

[0025] Examples of the physical quantity representing the coking state of coke include, for example, the temperature of the coke produced during unsteady operation, the temperature of the furnace wall 4 during unsteady operation, and the like. The physical quantity representing the coking state of coke during unsteady operation is used to bring the coking state of coke when returning to the steady state closer to the target state. From such a viewpoint, the physical quantity representing the coking state of coke during unsteady operation is preferably the one at a timing closer to the timing of returning from unsteady operation to the steady state. Therefore, in this embodiment, a case where the physical quantity representing the coking state of coke during unsteady operation is the coke temperature of the coal first charged into the carbonization chamber 2 after the end of the rest period is illustrated. As shown in FIG. 4 described later, in this embodiment, the end time of the coke extrusion operation in the 6th pattern after the end of the rest period is set as the end time of unsteady operation (the end time t e ) of unsteady operation. Therefore, the coke temperature of the coal first charged into the carbonization chamber 2 after the end of the rest period is the coke temperature at the end of unsteady operation. Therefore, in the following description, the coke temperature of the coal first charged into the carbonization chamber 2 after the end of the rest period is also referred to as the coke temperature at the end of unsteady operation. In this embodiment, a case where the coke temperature is the representative value for each pattern is illustrated. As the representative value, for example, any one of the arithmetic mean value, the median value, the mode value, and the minimum value is illustrated. As described above, the physical quantity representing the coking state of coke during unsteady operation is not limited to the coke temperature, and may be, for example, the temperature of the furnace wall 4 during unsteady operation.

[0026] The coke temperature is the temperature of the coke discharged from the coke oven chamber 2, and is calculated, for example, based on the measured value by the thermometer 8 shown in FIG. 2B. When the coke is being pushed out from the coke oven chamber 2 by the pushing ram 7, the temperature of the coke sequentially discharged from the coke oven chamber 2 is measured by the thermometer 8, and the representative value of the temperature at each measured time and each position is taken as the temperature of the coke produced in the coke oven chamber 2. As the representative value, any one of the arithmetic mean value (the value obtained by dividing the sum of the temperatures at each measured time and each position by the number of temperature measurements), the median value, the mode value, and the minimum value is exemplified. Then, the representative value of the temperature of the coke produced in the coke oven chamber 2 belonging to one row is taken as the coke temperature (row representative value). As described above, the row representative value is, for example, the row average value (the value obtained by dividing the sum of the temperatures of the coke produced in the coke oven chamber 2 belonging to one row by the number of coke oven chambers 2 belonging to that row). Note that since the coke temperature is preferably the temperature of the coke immediately after being discharged from the coke oven chamber 2, an example of determining the coke temperature as shown in FIG. 2B is illustrated. However, for the thermometer for measuring the coke temperature and the method of determining the coke temperature itself, for example, those adopted in a coke plant may be used and are not limited to the above. When the physical quantity representing the coking state of the coke during non-steady operation is taken as the temperature of the furnace wall 4 during non-steady operation, the temperature of the furnace wall 4 is also taken as the representative value (row representative value) of the temperature of the furnace wall 4 when coke is being produced in the coke oven chamber 2 belonging to one row. The temperature of the furnace wall 4 is measured, for example, by a thermometer (not shown) embedded in the furnace wall 4.

[0027] The factors adopted as the first influence factor and the second influence factor are determined, for example, by using a known method (for example, calculation of the correlation coefficient between the target variable and the explanatory variables using teacher data, elimination of explanatory variables having multicollinearity, etc.) for selecting the explanatory variables (the first influence factor, the second influence factor) with respect to the target variable (predicted value of the hearth temperature during non-steady operation, predicted value of the coke temperature at the end of non-steady operation). Also, at least one of the target variable and the explanatory variables may be the same physical quantity, and the predicted value or the actual value at a time earlier than the prediction time of the predicted value that is the target variable may be used as the explanatory variables (the first influence factor, the second influence factor). The method itself for calculating the target variable from the explanatory variables is realized by a known machine learning method such as regression analysis.

[0028] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of the relationship between the coke temperature, the hearth temperature, the input heat amount, and the carbonization time and time. In the present embodiment, since the coke temperature and the carbonization time are representative values for each passage, they can be obtained when the coking charging operation for one passage is executed. That is, the coke temperature and the carbonization time are obtained at the cycle of the passage time. In the graphs of the coke temperature and the carbonization time shown in FIG. 4 (the top graph and the bottom graph), the interval in the time axis direction between two adjacent plots (●) in the time axis direction is the passage time t t becomes. In FIG. 4, the passage time t e at time t t (t e ) is illustrated. Note that the passage time t t is generally a constant time, but may be different times.

[0029] As described above, the carbonization time is equal to the time required for the coking charging operation for all Da (=5) passages to be executed once each. Therefore, in the graphs of the coke temperature and the carbonization time shown in FIG. 4, the interval in the time axis direction between the plots at both ends of six adjacent plots (●) in the time axis direction is the carbonization time. In FIG. 4, the carbonization time t e at time t k (t e ) is illustrated.

[0030] Also, since the coke discharging and charging operation is not performed during the rest period, the coke temperature and coking time cannot be obtained (refer to FIG. 4 where no plot (●) is attached to the graphs of coke temperature and coking time during the rest period).

[0031] On the other hand, the hearth temperature and the input heat amount are obtained regardless of the coke discharging and charging operation (refer to FIG. 4 where plots (●) are attached to the graphs of hearth temperature and input heat amount even during the rest period). In the present embodiment, an example is illustrated where predicted values and actual values of the hearth temperature and the input heat amount are obtained at the control cycle of the coke oven 1 (the output cycle of the control signal in the control unit 340 described later), predicted values and actual values of the coke temperature are obtained at the cycle of the passing time, and scheduled values and actual values of the coking time are obtained at the cycle of the passing time. Also, it is assumed that the control cycle of the coke oven 1 is 1 hour (hr).

[0032] In FIG. 4, time t s is an example of the start time of the non-steady operation, and time t e is an example of the end time of the non-steady operation. Specifically, in the present embodiment, an example is illustrated where the end time of the coke discharging operation in the pass Db passes (Db is an integer of 1 or more) before the start of the rest of the coke discharging and charging operation (charging into the carbonization chamber 2 and pushing out) is set as the start time t s of the non-steady operation. More specifically, an example where Db is 2 is illustrated in the present embodiment. Therefore, in FIG. 4, the end time of the coke discharging operation in the pass 2 passes before the start of the rest period (the time of the second plot of the coke temperature counted from the start time of the rest period toward the past) is the start time t sThat is, when the downtime is known in advance as in the case where equipment maintenance is performed, Db may be 1 or an integer of 2 or more. On the other hand, when the downtime is not known in advance as in the case where an abnormal operation occurs, Db is preferably 1. In FIG. 4, for the sake of notation, there are plots overlapping the downtime in the graphs of the coke temperature and the carbonization time. However, the plots are obtained by the coking operation of the coke oven in units as before and after the downtime. Therefore, in the above description, the two passes before the start of the downtime means, including the plot overlapping the start time of the downtime, the time corresponding to the time of the second coke temperature plot counted backward from the start time of the downtime.

[0033] Also, in the present embodiment, the end time of the coke extrusion operation in the (Da + 1)-th pass after the end of the downtime of the coke oven charging operation (charging and extrusion into the carbonization chamber 2) is the end time t of the non-steady operation e is exemplified. Note that the start of the coke extrusion operation in a pass refers to the start of the coke extrusion operation in the carbonization chamber 2 where the coke extrusion operation is first performed among the carbonization chambers 2 belonging to the pass, and the end of the coke extrusion operation in a pass refers to the end of the coke extrusion operation in the carbonization chamber 2 where the coke extrusion operation is last performed among the carbonization chambers 2 belonging to the pass. As described above, in the present embodiment, the case where Da is 5 is exemplified. Therefore, in FIG. 4, the end time of the coke extrusion operation in the 6th pass after the end of the downtime (the time of the 6th coke temperature plot counted forward from the end time of the downtime) is the end time t of the non-steady operation e is. From the 1st pass to the Da-th pass (5 passes) after the end of the downtime, coke is produced from the coal present in the carbonization chamber 2 during the downtime.

[0034] On the other hand, in the (Da + 1)-th (6th) pattern after the end of the rest period, coal is charged into the coke oven chamber 2 after the end of the rest period. It is preferable that the coking state of the coke charged into the coke oven chamber 2 after the end of the rest period approaches the coking state in the steady state as quickly as possible. Therefore, in the present embodiment, the end time of the coke pushing operation in the (Da + 1)-th (6th) pattern after the end of the rest of the coke pushing and charging operation (charging and pushing into the coke oven chamber 2) is set as the end time t e of the non-steady operation. That is, the end time t e of the non-steady operation is the end time of the coke pushing operation in the pattern where the coke pushing and charging operation is first executed after the end of the rest period. However, the end time of the non-steady operation is not limited to the end time of the coke pushing operation in the (Da + 1)-th pattern after the end of the rest of the coke pushing and charging operation (charging and pushing into the coke oven chamber 2). For example, the end time of the coke pushing operation in the (Da + x)-th pattern after the end of the rest of the coke pushing and charging operation (charging and pushing into the coke oven chamber 2) may be set as the end time of the non-steady operation, and the value of x can be selected from integers of 1 or more. The values of x and Db can be appropriately adjusted, for example, as described later, according to the result of actually performing the control of the input heat amount according to the deviation of the actual value of the hearth temperature with respect to the target furnace temperature trajectory so that coke of desired quality can be obtained. As described above, the period of non-steady operation (during non-steady operation) is the period from time t s to t e .

[0035] Returning to the description of FIG. 3, in the present embodiment, the predicted value calculation unit 320 includes a furnace state calculation unit 321 and an input heat amount calculation unit 322. As described above, in the present embodiment, the first influencing factor includes the predicted value of the input heat amount to the combustion chamber 3. Therefore, the input heat amount calculation unit 322 calculates the predicted value of the input heat amount to the combustion chamber 3 during unsteady operation. The furnace state calculation unit 321 calculates the predicted value of the furnace temperature during unsteady operation based on the first influencing factor described above, and calculates the predicted value of the physical quantity representing the coking state of coke during unsteady operation based on the second influencing factor described above. In the present embodiment, the furnace temperature is the hearth temperature, and the physical quantity representing the coking state of coke is the coke temperature.

[0036] The target furnace temperature determination unit 330 determines the target furnace temperature trajectory, which is the time change of the target furnace temperature, which is the target value of the furnace temperature during unsteady operation, based on the predicted value of the furnace temperature during unsteady operation calculated by the predicted value calculation unit 320 and the predicted value of the physical quantity representing the coking state of coke during unsteady operation calculated by the predicted value calculation unit 320. In the present embodiment, the target furnace temperature is the target hearth temperature, which is the target value of the hearth temperature. The control unit 340 generates and outputs a control signal for making the input heat amount to the combustion chamber 3 an amount of heat corresponding to the difference between the target furnace temperature trajectory determined by the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 and the actual value of the furnace temperature.

[0037] Here, a specific example of the processing in the furnace state calculation unit 321, the input heat amount calculation unit 322, the target furnace temperature determination unit 330, and the control unit 340 of the present embodiment will be described. In the following description, the input heat amount to the combustion chamber 3 is abbreviated as the input heat amount as necessary, the coke temperature at the end of unsteady operation is abbreviated as the coke temperature, and the hearth temperature during unsteady operation is abbreviated as the hearth temperature.

[0038] <Furnace state calculation unit 321> First, a specific example of the processing in the furnace state calculation unit 321 will be described. In this embodiment, the furnace state calculation unit 321 calculates a predicted value of the furnace mass temperature by executing a calculation using a linear time series model that takes the input heat amount (GJ / hr) as an input, as a process model. The linear time series model is one of the statistical analysis models that calculates a predicted value of the process state at each predetermined time. In this embodiment, as a model of a second-order lag system, the regression equations shown in the following equations (1) to (3) are exemplified for the linear time series model.

[0039] [Number]

[0040] Here, Tr is the furnace mass temperature (°C). Q is the input heat amount (GJ / hr). ΔTr(t + 1), ΔTr(t), and ΔTr(t - 1) are the change amounts (°C) of the furnace mass temperatures Tr(t + 1), Tr(t), and Tr(t - 1) at times t + 1, t, and t - 1 with respect to the furnace mass temperatures Tr(t), Tr(t - 1), and Tr(t - 2) at times t, t - 1, and t - 2, respectively. That is, the relationships ΔTr(t + 1) = Tr(t + 1) - Tr(t), ΔTr(t) = Tr(t) - Tr(t - 1), and ΔTr(t - 1) = Tr(t - 1) - Tr(t - 2) hold. ΔQ(t + 1) is the change amount (GJ / hr) of the input heat amount Q(t + 1) at time t + 1 with respect to the input heat amount at time t. That is, the relationship ΔQ(t + 1) = Q(t + 1) - Q(t) holds. As described above, t + 1, t - 1, and t - 2 are the times 1 hour after, 1 hour before, and 2 hours before time t, respectively.

[0041] Q(t) is the input heat amount calculated by the input heat amount calculation unit 322. ΔQ(t + 1) is calculated based on the input heat amount calculated by the input heat amount calculation unit 322. When time t is the start time t s of the non-steady operation, Tr(t), Tr(t - 1), and Tr(t - 2) are the actual values of the furnace mass temperature at times t s , t s -1, and t s -2, respectively, and ΔTr(t) and ΔTr(t - 1) are calculated based on these actual values. When time t is the start time ts When it is a time after that, ΔTr(t) and ΔTr(t - 1) are calculated based on the calculation results (ΔTr(t + 1)) of formulas (1) to (3) at a time before the time t. The start time t of the non-steady operation s At a time t (> t s ) after that, the hearth temperature Tr(t) becomes the predicted value of the hearth temperature.

[0042] The coefficients a1, a2, and b1 are coefficients for ΔTr(t), ΔTr(t - 1), and ΔQ(t + 1), respectively. As the coefficients a1, a2, and b1, the coefficients when the form of formula (1) fits best to the past operation results of the coke oven 1 are separately obtained. For example, a large number of teacher data are created with a set of data of ΔTr(t + 1), ΔTr(t), ΔTr(t - 1), and ΔQ(t + 1) obtained from the past operation results of the coke oven 1 as one piece of teacher data, and the coefficients a1, a2, and b1 may be obtained by performing multiple regression analysis using the teacher data.

[0043] Also, in the present embodiment, the furnace state calculation unit 321 calculates a predicted value of the coke temperature by performing a calculation using a linear model that takes the hearth temperature (°C) and the carbonization time (hr) as inputs as a process model (physical model). The linear model is one of the statistical analysis models for calculating the predicted value of the process state. In the present embodiment, as the linear model, the multiple regression formulas shown in the following formulas (4) to (9) are exemplified.

[0044]

Equation

[0045] Here, Tc is the coke temperature (°C), and t k is the carbonization time (hr). Tc(t s ) is the actual value of the coke temperature at the start time t of the non-steady operation s , and Tc(t e ) is the predicted value of the coke temperature at the end time t e of the non-steady operation. Therefore, as shown in formula (5), ΔTc is at the start time t of the non-steady operations From the end time of non-stationary operation t e This is the change in the coke temperature during the period from Tr(t s ) is the start time of the non-steady operation t s This is the actual value of the furnace temperature at Tr(t e -Δt1), Tr(t e -Δt2), Tr(t e -Δt3) are the end times of the unsteady operation t e t Δt1 hours before, Δt2 hours before, and Δt3 hours before e -Δt1, t e -Δt2, t e -Δt3 is the predicted value of the furnace temperature. Tr(t e -Δt1), Tr(t e -Δt2), Tr(t e -Δt3) is calculated by the formulas (1) to (3). Here, Δt1, Δt2, and Δt3 are Δt1≧0, Δt1<Δt2<Δt3, and t e -Δt3>t s The relationship is set so that t k (t s ) is the start time of the non-steady operation t s The actual value of the carbonization time at t k (t e ) is the end time of the non-stationary operation t e The coefficients c1, c2, c3, and d1 are ΔTr1, ΔTr2, ΔTr3, and Δt k The coefficients c1, c2, c3, and d1 are calculated separately to best fit the form of equation (4) to the past operation results of coke oven 1. For example, a set of ΔTr1, ΔTr2, ΔTr3, and Δt k A large number of training data can be created using the data above as one training data, and the coefficients c1, c2, c3, and d1 can be found by performing multiple regression analysis using the training data.

[0046] <Input heat amount calculation unit 322> The input heat amount calculation unit 322 calculates a predicted value of the input heat amount during non-steady operation based on a candidate for the target furnace temperature trajectory and a predicted value of the furnace mass temperature calculated by the furnace state calculation unit 321. In this embodiment, an example is given where the candidate for the target furnace temperature trajectory is output from the target furnace temperature determination unit 330. The input heat amount calculation unit 322 calculates a predicted value Q(t + 1) one hour after time t as a predicted value of the input heat amount such that the difference between the candidate for the target furnace temperature trajectory and the predicted value of the furnace mass temperature calculated by the furnace state calculation unit 321 becomes small (preferably zero). Such a method for calculating the predicted value of the input heat amount itself is realized by a known technique. The input heat amount calculation unit 322 calculates, for example, an expected value of the input heat amount corresponding to the deviation of the predicted value of the furnace mass temperature calculated by the furnace state calculation unit 321 with respect to the candidate for the target furnace temperature trajectory by PID control using a control simulator that performs computer simulation of PID control. Also, other controls such as PI control may be used instead of PID control.

[0047] Alternatively, the input heat amount calculation unit 322 may calculate the predicted value Q(t + 1) of the input heat amount using the following equations (10) and (11).

[0048]

Equation

[0049] Here, Tr_ref(t + m) is a candidate for the target furnace temperature trajectory (the target value of the furnace temperature) at time t + m. In this embodiment, the case where it is given from the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 is exemplified (refer to the arrow line from the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 to the predicted value calculation unit 320 in FIG. 3). Tr(t + m) is the predicted value of the furnace temperature at time t + m, and in this embodiment, it is calculated by the furnace state calculation unit 321. Therefore, Tr_err, which is the value obtained by subtracting Tr(t + m) from Tr_ref(t + m), is the prediction error of the furnace temperature at time t + m. Q(t + 1)_old is the input heat amount at the previous update time t + 1, and Q(t + 1)_new is the input heat amount at the updated time t + 1. Also, G shown in equation (11) is a predetermined gain multiplied by Tr_err. m is a positive integer of 2 or more, and is appropriately set according to the time after time t for which the prediction error of the furnace temperature is to be calculated.

[0050] When performing the calculations of equations (10) and (11), the input heat amount calculation unit 322 outputs an initial value of the candidate for the input heat amount Q(t + 1) at time t + 1 to the furnace state calculation unit 321. The initial value of the candidate for the input heat amount Q(t + 1) at time t + 1 may be determined in any way. For example, the input heat amount calculation unit 322 may determine the initial value of the candidate for the input heat amount Q(t + 1) at time t + 1 using a random number or a preset value. The furnace state calculation unit 321 calculates the predicted value of the furnace temperature in the same manner as described in the section of <furnace state calculation unit 321> using the initial value of the candidate for the input heat amount Q(t + 1) at time t + 1. At this time, the furnace state calculation unit 321 calculates at least the predicted value of the furnace temperature every hour from time t to t + m. The input heat amount calculation unit 322 calculates the prediction error Tr_err of the furnace temperature at time t + m according to equation (10) based on the predicted value of the furnace temperature at time t + m calculated by the furnace state calculation unit 321 and the candidate for the target furnace temperature trajectory (the target value of the furnace temperature) at time t + m.

[0051] Then, the input heat amount calculation unit 322 determines whether or not the prediction error Tr_err of the hearth temperature at time t + m is equal to or less than a predetermined value. The smaller the prediction error Tr_err of the hearth temperature at time t + m, the more preferable. Therefore, as the predetermined value, for example, 0 (zero) or a value close to 0 is set. When the prediction error Tr_err of the hearth temperature at time t + m is not equal to or less than the predetermined value, the input heat amount calculation unit 322 gives the initial value of the candidate for the input heat amount Q(t + 1) at time t + 1 to the first term (Q(t + 1)_old) on the right side of equation (11), and gives the prediction error Tr_err of the hearth temperature at time t + m to the second term on the right side of equation (11), and calculates the updated input heat amount Q(t + 1)_new at time t + 1 according to equation (11). The input heat amount calculation unit 322 uses the updated input heat amount Q(t + 1)_new at time t + 1 calculated in this way as a new candidate for the input heat amount Q(t + 1) at time t + 1. Then, using the new candidate for the input heat amount Q(t + 1) at time t + 1, the output of the candidate for the input heat amount Q(t + 1) at time t + 1 to the furnace state calculation unit 321, the calculation of the predicted value of the hearth temperature by the furnace state calculation unit 321, the calculation of the prediction error Tr_err of the hearth temperature at time t + m, and the calculation of the updated input heat amount Q(t + 1)_new at time t + 1 are repeatedly executed until the prediction error Tr_err of the hearth temperature at time t + m becomes equal to or less than the predetermined value.

[0052] When the prediction error Tr_err of the hearth temperature at time t + m is equal to or less than the predetermined value, the input heat amount calculation unit 322 determines the updated input heat amount Q(t + 1)_new at time t + 1 used when calculating the prediction error Tr_err of the hearth temperature at time t + m as the predicted value of the input heat amount Q(t + 1) at time t + 1. The furnace state calculation unit 321 calculates the predicted value of the hearth temperature Tr(t + 1) at time t + 1 using the predicted value of the input heat amount Q(t + 1) at time t + 1 determined by the input heat amount calculation unit 322, and determines the calculated predicted value as the predicted value of the hearth temperature Tr(t + 1) at time t + 1.

[0053] The predicted value calculation unit 320 outputs the predicted values of the input heat amount Q(t + 1) and the hearth temperature Tr(t + 1), which are determined as described above, to the target hearth temperature determination unit 330 (refer to the arrow line (hearth temperature, input heat amount) from the predicted value calculation unit 320 to the target hearth temperature determination unit 330 in FIG. 3). And, with the time t shifted backward by 1 hour at a time from time t s +1 to t e -1, the process of determining the predicted values of the input heat amount Q(t + 1) and the hearth temperature Tr(t + 1) as described above is repeated. As a result, the predicted values of the input heat amount Q(t + 1) and the hearth temperature Tr(t + 1) at each time every 1 hour from time t s +1 to t e are determined. When the predicted value of the hearth temperature Tr(t e ) at the end time t e of the non-steady operation is determined, the furnace state calculation unit 321 calculates and determines the predicted value of the coke temperature Tc(t e ) at the end of the non-steady operation according to equations (4) to (9). The predicted value calculation unit 320 outputs the predicted value of the coke temperature Tc(t e ), which is determined as described above, to the target hearth temperature determination unit 330 (refer to the arrow line (coke temperature) from the predicted value calculation unit 320 to the target hearth temperature determination unit 330 in FIG. 3).

[0054] The number of candidates for the target hearth temperature trajectory Tr_ref(t + m) at time t + m may be one or a plurality. However, in the section of <target hearth temperature determination unit 330> described later, the case where the number of candidates for the target hearth temperature trajectory Tr_ref(t + m) at time t + m is a plurality is exemplified. When the number of candidates for the target hearth temperature trajectory Tr_ref(t + m) at time t + m is a plurality, the predicted value calculation unit 320 determines the predicted values of the input heat amount Q(t + 1) and the hearth temperature Tr(t + 1) at each time every 1 hour from time t s +1 to t e for each of the plurality of candidates as described above.

[0055] <target hearth temperature determination unit 330> The target furnace temperature determination unit 330 determines a target furnace temperature trajectory based on the predicted values of the input heat quantity, the predicted value of the hearth temperature, and the predicted value of the coke temperature calculated (determined) by the predicted value calculation unit 320.

[0056] FIG. 5 is a diagram for explaining an example of the target furnace temperature trajectory. The graph shown at the top of FIG. 5 shows an example of the time change of the coke temperature, and the graph shown at the bottom shows an example of the time change of the hearth temperature. In FIG. 5, the position (time) on the time axis of the white circle is the time when the coke temperature and the hearth temperature are obtained. In FIG. 5, for convenience of notation, only white circles are shown for the period from the start time t s to the end time t e However, the coke temperature and the hearth temperature can also be obtained outside this period.

[0057] In the graph shown at the top of FIG. 5, Tc(t e ) is the predicted value of the coke temperature Tc(t e ) calculated (determined) by the predicted value calculation unit 320. Tc_sv is the target value of the coke temperature at the end of the non-steady operation, and is set according to the quality required for the coke and the like. In the following description, this target value Tc_sv is also referred to as the target coke temperature.

[0058] In the graph shown at the bottom of FIG. 5, Tr(t s ) is the hearth temperature Tr(t s) is the actual value. ΔTr1 is the amount of change (°C) in the hearth temperature from the hearth temperature in the steady state just before the start of the unsteady operation (= the hearth temperature at the start of the unsteady operation) to the lowest hearth temperature during the unsteady operation. In the following description, ΔTr1 is also referred to as the hearth temperature change amount at the start of unsteady operation. ΔTr2 is the amount of change (°C) in the hearth temperature from the lowest hearth temperature during the unsteady operation to the hearth temperature in the steady state just after the end of the unsteady operation (= the hearth temperature at the end of the unsteady operation). In the following description, ΔTr2 is also referred to as the hearth temperature change amount at the end of unsteady operation. time1 is the time (hr) required for the hearth temperature to change from the hearth temperature in the steady state just before the start of the unsteady operation to the lowest hearth temperature during the unsteady operation. In the following description, this time time1 is also referred to as the lowest hearth temperature reaching time time1. time2 is the time (hr) required for the hearth temperature to change from the lowest hearth temperature during the unsteady operation to the hearth temperature in the steady state just after the end of the unsteady operation. In the following description, this time time2 is also referred to as the lowest hearth temperature maintaining time time2. time0 is the period (hr) of the unsteady operation. And the start time t s to the end time t e The graph shown by the solid line up to is the target hearth temperature trajectory Tr_ref.

[0059] In this embodiment, an example is given where the target hearth temperature determination unit 330 calculates the optimal solution of the target hearth temperature trajectory Tr_ref as shown below Figure 5 by solving an optimization problem such as a combinatorial optimization problem, and determines the target hearth temperature trajectory Tr_ref. In this case, the hearth temperature change amount ΔTr1 at the start of unsteady operation, the hearth temperature change amount ΔTr2 at the end of unsteady operation, the lowest hearth temperature reaching time time1, and the lowest hearth temperature maintaining time time2 become design variables (variables to be solved).

[0060] First, the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 generates a candidate group (a plurality of candidates) of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref and outputs it to the predicted value calculation unit 320. In the present embodiment, a case where the optimal solution of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref is calculated using a metaheuristic method such as a genetic algorithm is exemplified. Therefore, each candidate included in the candidate group of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref is generated according to the method used in a metaheuristic method such as a genetic algorithm. Since the metaheuristic method itself such as a genetic algorithm is realized by a known technique, its detailed description is omitted.

[0061] The predicted value calculation unit 320 calculates (determines) the predicted value of the input heat quantity Q(t), the predicted value of the furnace mass temperature Tr(t), and the coke temperature Tc(t e ) in the same manner as described in the section of <furnace state calculation unit 321> and the section of <input heat quantity calculation unit 322>. The predicted value of the input heat quantity Q(t) and the predicted value of the furnace mass temperature Tr(t) are values every hour from the start time t s of the non-steady operation to the end time t e of the non-steady operation. The predicted value of the coke temperature Tc(t e ) is the value at the end of the non-steady operation.

[0062] The target furnace temperature determination unit 330 uses the candidate of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref output to the predicted value calculation unit 320 and the predicted value of the input heat quantity Q(t), the predicted value of the furnace mass temperature Tr(t), and the predicted value of the coke temperature Tc(t e ) calculated (determined) by the predicted value calculation unit 320 for the candidate of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref, and calculates the value of the evaluation function J (fitness function) of the following formula (12) when the constraint formula of the following formula (13) is satisfied.

[0063]

Equation

[0064] The integration range of t in the first term and the third term on the right side of formula (12) is the range from t s to t e (t s≦t≦t e )。The first term on the right side of equation (12) is an example of a first evaluation index for evaluating the difference between a candidate for the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref and the predicted value of the furnace mass temperature Tr(t). The second term on the right side of equation (12) is an example of a target physical quantity, the target coke temperature Tc_sv, and an example of the predicted value of a physical quantity representing the coking state of the coke, the coke temperature Tc(t e )'s predicted value, and is an example of a second evaluation index for evaluating the difference. The third term on the right side of equation (12) is an example of a third evaluation index for evaluating the input heat quantity Q(t). w1, w2, and w3 are set according to the degree of importance of each evaluation index (evaluation item), and are weight coefficients representing the balance of evaluation among the evaluation indexes (note that the weight coefficients are also referred to as cost coefficients, etc.). In the present embodiment, the weight coefficients w1, w2, and w3 are positive values. In this case, the weight coefficient for an important evaluation index is set to a relatively large value. Also, in the example shown in equation (12), the smaller the value of each term on the right side of equation (12), the higher the evaluation by each evaluation index. Therefore, the closer the value of the evaluation function J is to 0, the more preferable it is. That is, the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 searches for the design variables that minimize the value of the evaluation function J (in the range of 0 or more) within the range that satisfies the constraint equation of equation (13) as the optimal solution. As described above, in the present embodiment, the design variables are the non-steady start furnace temperature change amount ΔTr1, the non-steady end furnace temperature change amount ΔTr2, the minimum furnace temperature arrival time time1, and the minimum furnace temperature maintenance time time2 (see FIG. 5). Note that the design variables that maximize the value of the evaluation function may be searched for as the optimal solution. In this case, for example, the product of each term on the right side of equation (12) multiplied by (-1) is used as the evaluation function. The target furnace temperature determination unit 330 searches for the design variables that maximize the value of the evaluation function as the optimal solution within the range that satisfies the constraint equation of equation (13).

[0065] Note that when the candidate for the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref generated by the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 does not satisfy the constraint equation of equation (13), the candidate for the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref is discarded without being output to the predicted value calculation unit 320.

[0066] The target furnace temperature determination unit 330 determines whether or not the convergence condition is satisfied based on the calculation results of the values of the evaluation function J for the individual candidates included in the candidate group of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref. The convergence condition may be any condition as long as it is a convergence condition used in a metaheuristic method such as a genetic algorithm. The convergence condition may be, for example, a condition that the minimum value among the values of the evaluation function J calculated for the individual candidates included in the candidate group of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref is equal to or less than a predetermined value, or a condition that the number of calculation times (the number of times of the iterative process) of the value of the evaluation function J is a predetermined value.

[0067] When the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 does not satisfy the convergence condition, it regenerates and updates the candidate group of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref. Then, the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 repeatedly executes the calculation of the value of the evaluation function J, the determination of whether or not the convergence condition is satisfied, and the regeneration of the candidate group of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref as described above until the convergence condition is satisfied.

[0068] Among the values of the evaluation function J for the plurality of candidates of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref calculated when the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 satisfies the convergence condition, the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref determined by the design variables (the furnace temperature change amount ΔTr1 at the start of the non-steady state, the furnace temperature change amount ΔTr2 at the end of the non-steady state, the minimum furnace temperature arrival time time1, and the minimum furnace temperature maintenance time time2) when the value of the evaluation function J is the minimum value is determined as the optimal solution of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref.

[0069] <Control unit 340> The control unit 340 calculates the input heat amount to the combustion chamber 3 at a time one hour after the current time in the same way as the method by which the input heat amount calculation unit 322 calculates the predicted value of the input heat amount. For example, when the input heat amount calculation unit 322 calculates the predicted value of the input heat amount at a time one hour after the current time using a control simulator that performs computer simulation of PID control, the control unit 340 has a PID controller. The control unit 340 uses the PID controller to calculate the value of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref determined by the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 at a time one hour after the current time. Then, the control unit 340 generates and outputs a control signal for making the input heat amount to the combustion chamber 3 an amount of heat corresponding to the difference between the calculated input heat amount to the combustion chamber 3 at a time one hour after the current time and the value of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref determined by the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 at a time one hour after the current time. As an output destination of the control signal, a control device of an actuator that operates the control valve 5 is exemplified. The control device instructs the actuator to operate the control valve 5 to have an opening degree according to the control signal.

[0070] Also, for example, when the input heat amount calculation unit 322 calculates the predicted value Q(t + 1) of the input heat amount using equations (10) and (11), the control unit 340 may calculate the predicted value Q(t + 1) of the input heat amount using equations (10) and (11), and generate and output a control signal for making the input heat amount to the combustion chamber 3 the predicted value Q(t + 1) of the input heat amount. In this case, it is only necessary to calculate the predicted value Q(t + 1) of the input heat amount until a time one hour after the current time. That is, in this case, in the description in the section of <input heat amount calculation unit 322>, the time t is shifted to a later time every hour from time t s + 1 to t e - 1 and the process of repeatedly executing by shifting is unnecessary.

[0071] <When the operating conditions are changed during non-steady operation> The processes in the above furnace state calculation unit 321, input heat amount calculation unit 322, and target furnace temperature determination unit 330 are at the start time t of non-steady operation sWhen this occurs, it is executed and the target furnace temperature trajectory is determined. Thereafter, during the non-steady operation, the operating conditions that affect the determination of the target furnace temperature trajectory may be changed. In such a case, it is preferable to re-determine the target furnace temperature trajectory after the timing when the operating conditions are changed. As such an operating condition, an example is the scheduled value of the carbonization time. When the scheduled value of the carbonization time is changed, the end time t e of the non-steady operation is changed. Therefore, hereinafter, an example of a method for re-determining the target furnace temperature trajectory when the operating conditions are changed during the non-steady operation will be described by exemplifying the case where the scheduled value of the carbonization time becomes longer than the value at the start time t s of the non-steady operation. Note that a change in the scheduled value of the carbonization time of the coke in the carbonization chamber 2 belonging to a certain row occurs, for example, when the coking and charging operation in the carbonization chamber 2 belonging to the row where the coking and charging operation is executed earlier than that row is delayed or advanced from the schedule.

[0072] FIG. 6A is a diagram for explaining an example of the target furnace temperature trajectory determined at the start time t s of the non-steady operation, and FIG. 6B is a diagram for explaining an example of the target furnace temperature trajectory determined at the timing when the operating conditions are changed. In FIGS. 6A and 6B, Tr_ref_old indicates the target furnace temperature trajectory determined at the start time t s of the non-steady operation. In FIGS. 6A and 6B, Tr_mes indicates the actual furnace temperature trajectory, which is the actual value of the furnace mass temperature Tr(t). In FIG. 6A, it is shown that the actual value of the furnace mass temperature Tr(t) has been obtained until the start time t s of the non-steady operation. In FIG. 6A, the design variables (the change amount of the furnace temperature at the start of non-steady operation ΔTr1, the change amount of the furnace temperature at the end of non-steady operation ΔTr2, the time to reach the lowest furnace temperature time1, and the duration of maintaining the lowest furnace temperature time2) corresponding to the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref_old are denoted as ΔTr1_old, ΔTr2_old, time1_old, and time2_old.

[0073] When, during the non-steady operation, the operating conditions that affect the determination of the target furnace temperature trajectory are changed, the start time t sfrom the end time t of the unsteady operation e Instead, from the time when the operating conditions are changed to the end time t of the unsteady operation e During this period, the predicted value of the input heat Q(t), the predicted value of the hearth temperature Tr(t), and the predicted value of the coke temperature Tc(t e ), are calculated (determined) by the predicted value calculation unit 320 (the furnace state calculation unit 321 and the input heat calculation unit 322), and the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref is determined by the target furnace temperature determination unit 330. In this case, among the design variables, for the design variables that cannot be changed at the time when the operating conditions are changed, the values in the already determined (latest) target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref by the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 are used. Therefore, when calculating the evaluation function J by the target furnace temperature determination unit 330, in addition to the constraint expression shown in Equation (13), a constraint expression indicating the constraint condition that the design variables that cannot be changed at the time when the operating conditions are changed are the values in the already determined (latest) target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref by the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 is added.

[0074] Also, for the input heat and the hearth temperature during the period from the start time t s of the unsteady operation to the time when the operating conditions are changed, measured values are used instead of predicted values. Therefore, when calculating the evaluation function J by the target furnace temperature determination unit 330, in addition to the constraint expression shown in Equation (13), a constraint expression indicating the constraint condition that the values of the input heat Q(t) and the hearth temperature Tr(t) during the period from the start time t s of the unsteady operation to the time when the operating conditions are changed are measured values (not predicted values) is added.

[0075] Also, in the processing in the furnace state calculation unit 321, the input heat calculation unit 322, and the target furnace temperature determination unit 330, the changed operating conditions are used. When the schedule value of the carbonization time t e at the end time t k (t e ) of the unsteady operation is changed, the value of t k (t e ) in Equation (9) is changed. Also, the period time0 of the unsteady operation is changed.

[0076] In FIG. 6B, the case where the operating conditions are changed at time t is illustrated. m In this case, the actual value of the furnace mass temperature Tr(t) (actual furnace temperature trajectory Tr_mes) up to time t when the operating conditions are changed will have been obtained. At time t when the operating conditions are changed m Among the design variables at time t when the operating conditions are changed, the design variables that cannot be changed at time t m when the operating conditions are changed are the furnace temperature change amount ΔTr1 at the start of the unsteady state and the minimum furnace temperature arrival time time1. Therefore, when calculating the evaluation function J by the target furnace temperature determination unit 330, in addition to the constraint expressions shown in equation (13), the furnace temperature change amount ΔTr1 at the start of the unsteady state and the minimum furnace temperature arrival time time1 are set to the furnace temperature change amount ΔTr1_old at the start of the unsteady state and the minimum furnace temperature arrival time time1_old in the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref_old determined at the start time t m of the unsteady operation. Constraint expressions (ΔTr1 = ΔTr1_old, time1 = time1_old) are added. Also, the period time0 of the unsteady operation in equation (13) is changed from the period time0_old before the change shown in FIG. 6A to the period time0_new after the change shown in FIG. 6B. Note that the change in the scheduled value of the carbonization time is grasped, for example, during the operation of discharging coke from the kiln (coke extrusion operation). s After making the above changes, by executing the processing in the furnace state calculation unit 321, the input heat amount calculation unit 322, and the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 described above, the design variables that can be changed at time t

[0077] when the operating conditions are changed are determined. In FIG. 6B, the design variables (furnace temperature change amount ΔTr2 at the end of the unsteady state, minimum furnace temperature maintenance time time2) that can be changed at time t m when the operating conditions are changed are denoted as ΔTr2_new and time2_new. Also, in FIG. 6B, among the target furnace temperature trajectories Tr_ref_old shown in FIG. 6A, at time t m when the operating conditions are changed mIt indicates that the part at the subsequent time is changed to the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref_new determined by the unsteady end furnace temperature change amount ΔTr2_new and the minimum furnace temperature maintenance time time2_new. In Fig. 6B, for comparison with the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref_new, among the target furnace temperature trajectories Tr_ref_old shown in Fig. 6A, at the time t when the operating conditions are changed m the part at the subsequent time is also shown.

[0078] <Flowchart> Next, an example of the processing method using the processing device 300 will be described with reference to the flowchart of Fig. 7.

[0079] First, in step S701, the acquisition unit 310 acquires the data used in the processing device 300. In this embodiment, the acquisition unit 310 acquires the target coke temperature Tc_sv (°C), which is the target value of the coke temperature at the end of the unsteady operation (see Fig. 5). Also, the acquisition unit 310 acquires the passing time t t and the number of passes Da (pieces). The passing time t t is a scheduled value or an actual value. Also, the acquisition unit 310 acquires the start time t s of the unsteady operation and the carbonization time t k (t s ) of the actual value (hr) at the end time t e of the unsteady operation and the carbonization time t k (t e ) of the scheduled value (hr) at the end time t

[0080] Also, the acquisition unit 310 acquires the start time t s and the end time t e of the unsteady operation (see Fig. 5). The start time t s of the unsteady operation is an actual value. The end time t e of the unsteady operation is a scheduled time. The acquisition unit 310 adds the carbonization time (t s ) at the start time t e of the unsteady operation to the start time t eThe value obtained by adding the schedule value of e is calculated as the end time t of the non-steady operation. Instead of doing this, the acquisition unit 310 uses the start time t of the non-steady operation s and the added value of the passing time t t for each route, and calculates the value obtained by adding them as the end time t of the non-steady operation e . Then, the acquisition unit 310 calculates the period time0 (hr) of the non-steady operation based on the start time t of the non-steady operation s and the end time t of the non-steady operation e (see Fig. 5).

[0081] In addition, the acquisition unit 310 acquires the actual value (°C) of the hearth temperature Tr(t s ) at the start time t of the non-steady operation (see Fig. 5). s In addition to the above-mentioned actual values, the acquisition unit 310 acquires various actual values (operation performance data) in the coke oven 1, such as the hearth temperature Tr(t), the coke temperature Tc(t) at the end of the coke extrusion operation, and the heat input Q(t) to the combustion chamber 3. As described above with reference to Fig. 4, the hearth temperature Tr and the heat input Q to the combustion chamber 3 are acquired at the control cycle of the coke oven 1. Also, the coke temperature Tc at the end of the coke extrusion operation is acquired at the cycle of the passing time.

[0082] In addition, the acquisition unit 310 acquires, as constants used in the processing in the predicted value calculation unit 320 and the target furnace temperature determination unit 330, the weight coefficients w1, w2, w3, the coefficients a1~a2, b1, c1~c3, d1, the times Δt1, Δt2, Δt3, the gain G, and the target value Tc_sv of the coke temperature at the end of the non-steady operation, etc. Also, the acquisition unit 310 may acquire operation conditions other than the above-mentioned operation conditions (the target coke temperature Tc_sv, the schedule value of the carbonization time (t e ), etc.) as the operation conditions in the coke oven 1. Note that the timing of data acquisition in the acquisition unit 310 is not limited to the timing illustrated in Fig. 7, and may be any timing in Fig. 7.

[0083] Next, in step S702, the acquisition unit 310 determines whether it is the timing to determine the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref. In the present embodiment, the acquisition unit 310 determines that it is the timing to determine the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref at the timing when the non-steady operation starts and at the timing when the operation conditions are changed. The acquisition unit 310 determines that the non-steady operation has started, for example, when it has acquired the start time t s of the non-steady operation in step S701. Further, the acquisition unit 310 determines that the operation conditions have been changed, for example, when it has acquired a schedule value different from the already acquired schedule value as the schedule value of the carbonization time t e at the end time t k of the non-steady operation (t e ) in step S701.

[0084] If, as a result of the determination in step S702, it is not the timing to determine the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref (NO in step S702), the process of step S701 is executed again. And if, as a result of the determination in step S702, it is determined that it is the timing to determine the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref (YES in step S702), the process of step S703 is executed.

[0085] In step S703, the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 generates an initial value of the candidate group of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref. Next, in step S704, the processing device 300 sets the current processing time t to the time t c at which the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref is determined. In the present embodiment, the time t c at which the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref is determined is the start time t s of the non-steady operation or the time t m when the operation conditions are changed. Note that the current processing time t is not the actual time but the simulation time in computer simulation.

[0086] Next, in step S705, the input heat amount calculation unit 322 calculates the predicted value of the input heat amount Q(t + 1) at time t + 1 for each of a plurality of candidates included in the candidate group of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref, based on the candidate of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref and the predicted value of the furnace temperature calculated by the furnace state calculation unit 321. As described above, the calculation of the predicted value of the input heat amount Q(t + 1) at time t + 1 is realized, for example, by a control simulator that performs computer simulation of PID control, calculations using equations (10) and (11), and the like.

[0087] Next, in step S706, the furnace state calculation unit 321 calculates the predicted value of the furnace temperature Tr(t + 1) using the predicted value of the input heat amount Q(t + 1) at time t + 1 calculated in step S705 and the predicted values and / or measured values of the furnace temperatures Tr(t), Tr(t - 1), Tr(t - 2) at times t, t - 1, t - 2 before time t + 1 (see equations (1) to (3)). When time t + 1 is time t s + 1, the measured values of the furnace temperatures Tr(t), Tr(t - 1), Tr(t - 2) are used. When time t + 1 is time t s + 4 or later, the predicted values of the furnace temperatures Tr(t), Tr(t - 1), Tr(t - 2) are used. When time t + 1 is a time between these, both the predicted values and the measured values of the furnace temperatures Tr(t), Tr(t - 1), Tr(t - 2) are used.

[0088] Next, in step S707, the processing device 300 determines whether the current processing time t is time t e - 1. As a result of this determination, if the current processing time t is not time t e - 1 (NO in step S707), the process of step S708 is executed.

[0089] In step S708, the processing device 300 adds one hour to the current processing time t to update the current processing time t. Then, in steps S705 to S706, for each of the plurality of candidates included in the candidate group of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref, the predicted value of the input heat quantity Q(t + 1) and the predicted value of the furnace mass temperature Tr(t + 1) at the time t + 1, which is one hour after the updated current processing time t, are calculated. As described above, in step S707, until it is determined that the current processing time t becomes the time t e -1, the processing of steps S705 to S708 is repeatedly executed.

[0090] In step S707, when it is determined that the current processing time t is the time t e -1 (when YES in step S707), for each of the plurality of candidates included in the candidate group of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref, the predicted value of the input heat quantity Q(t + 1) and the predicted value of the furnace mass temperature Tr(t + 1) at each time t + 1 every hour from the time t c (start time t of the non-steady operation s or the time t when the operation conditions are changed m ) to the end time t of the non-steady operation e are calculated. In this case, the processing of step S709 is executed.

[0091] In step S709, the furnace state calculation unit 321 calculates based on the actual value of the furnace mass temperature Tr(t s ) at the start time t of the non-steady operation, the predicted value of the furnace mass temperature Tr(t s ) at the end time t of the non-steady operation, the actual value of the carbonization time t e (t e ) at the start time t of the non-steady operation, and the schedule value of the carbonization time t s (t k )(t s ) at the end time t of the non-steady operation, the coke temperature Tc(t e ) at the end time t of the non-steady operation k (t e ), and the coke temperature Tc(t e ) at the end time t of the non-steady operation eCalculate the predicted value of ) for each of the plurality of candidates included in the candidate group of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref (see equations (4) to (9)). Note that at the end time t of the non-steady operation e when calculating the predicted value of the coke temperature Tc(t e ) during non-steady operation, the predicted values Tr(t e -Δt1), Tr(t e -Δt2), Tr(t e -Δt3) calculated by equations (6) to (8) are also used.

[0092] Next, in step S710, the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 calculates the value of the evaluation function J of equation (12) when satisfying the constraint equation including equation (13) for each of the plurality of candidates included in the candidate group of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref. Next, in step S711, the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 determines whether the convergence condition is satisfied. As a result of this determination, if the convergence condition is not satisfied (NO in step S711), the process of step S712 is executed. In step S712, the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 updates the candidate group of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref. Then, using the updated candidates of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref, the processes of steps S704 to S711 are executed. In this way, the processes of steps S704 to S712 are repeatedly executed until the convergence condition is satisfied.

[0093] Then, in step S711, when it is determined that the convergence condition is satisfied (YES in step S711), the process of step S713 is executed. In step S713, the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 determines the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref determined by the design variables (the furnace temperature change amount ΔTr1 at the start of non-steady operation, the furnace temperature change amount ΔTr2 at the end of non-steady operation, the minimum furnace temperature arrival time time1, and the minimum furnace temperature maintenance time time2) when the value of the evaluation function J is the minimum value among the values of the evaluation function J for the plurality of candidates of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref calculated when the convergence condition is satisfied as the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref. Next, in step S714, the control unit 340 calculates the input heat amount to the combustion chamber 3 at a time one hour after the current time in the same manner as when the input heat amount calculation unit 322 calculates the predicted value of the input heat amount Q(t + 1) in step S705. Then, the control unit 340 generates and outputs a control signal for making the input heat amount to the combustion chamber 3 into a heat amount corresponding to the difference between the input heat amount to the combustion chamber 3 at the time one hour after the current time thus calculated and the value of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref determined by the target furnace temperature determination unit 330 at the time one hour after the current time. Note that the current time is the actual time when step S714 is executed. When the process of step S714 ends, the process according to the flowchart of FIG. 7 ends.

[0094] <Calculation Example> FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref and the actual furnace temperature trajectory Tr_mes. The actual furnace temperature trajectory Tr_mes shown in FIG. 8 is the furnace mass temperature when coke satisfying a desired quality is produced from the results of past operations. The target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref is the furnace mass temperature determined by the method of the present embodiment using the actual values up to the time t c (start time t of non-steady operation s or the time t when the operating conditions are changed m ) without using the actual values at times after that. c It is the furnace mass temperature determined by the method of the present embodiment using the actual values up to the time t.

[0095] FIG. 8(a) shows the calculation results when the operating conditions are not changed during non-steady operation. As shown in FIG. 8(a), it can be seen that the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref can accurately follow the actual furnace temperature trajectory Tr_mes.

[0096] FIG. 8(b) shows the calculation results when the operating conditions (carbonization time) are changed during non-steady operation. In FIG. 8(b), similar to FIG. 6B, for comparison, at the time t m after the operating conditions are changed, even after that, at the start time t of non-steady operation sshows the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref_old determined in []. In Fig. 8(b), from the start time t s to the time t m when the operating conditions are changed, the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref_old determined at the start time t s of the unsteady operation is used as the target furnace temperature trajectory. Then, from the time t m when the operating conditions are changed to the end time t e of the unsteady operation, the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref_new determined at the time t m when the operating conditions are changed is used.

[0097] As shown in Fig. 8(b), when the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref_new is re-determined at the time t m when the operating conditions are changed, it can be seen that the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref can follow the actual furnace temperature trajectory Tr_mes with higher accuracy.

[0098] <Summary> As described above, in this embodiment, the processing device 300 calculates the predicted value of the furnace temperature during unsteady operation based on the first influencing factor that is a factor affecting the predicted value of the furnace temperature during unsteady operation, and calculates the predicted value of the physical quantity representing the carbonization state of coke during unsteady operation based on the second influencing factor that is a factor affecting the predicted value of the physical quantity. Then, the processing device 300 determines the target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_ref based on the predicted value of the furnace temperature and the predicted value of the physical quantity. Therefore, it is possible to predict how the furnace temperature and the carbonization state of coke during unsteady operation will be, and dynamically determine the target furnace temperature trajectory so that the predicted result is reflected. The target furnace temperature during unsteady operation can be accurately determined.

[0099] Also, in the present embodiment, as a first influencing factor that affects the predicted value of the furnace temperature during unsteady operation, the processing device 300 uses an influencing factor including the amount of heat input to the combustion chamber 3 during unsteady operation and the furnace temperature at a timing earlier than the prediction time of the predicted value (the time when the predicted value of the furnace temperature is obtained). Further, the processing device 300 uses, as a second influencing factor that affects a physical quantity representing the coking state of coke during unsteady operation, an influencing factor including the predicted value of the furnace temperature during unsteady operation. Then, the processing device 300 calculates a predicted value of the furnace temperature at a prediction time after the prediction time of the already calculated predicted value of the furnace temperature based on the first influencing factor (refer to equations (1) to (3) as specific examples). Also, the processing device 300 calculates a predicted value of a physical quantity representing the coking state of coke during unsteady operation based on the second influencing factor including the predicted value of the furnace temperature during unsteady operation calculated in this way (refer to equations (4) to (8) as specific examples). Therefore, it is possible to calculate the predicted value of the furnace temperature and the predicted value of the physical quantity representing the coking state of coke by using influencing factors that have a large influence on the predicted value of the furnace temperature and the predicted value of the physical quantity representing the coking state of coke during unsteady operation.

[0100] Also, in the present embodiment, the processing device 300 calculates a change amount for each predetermined time determined based on the control cycle for the combustion chamber 3 as the predicted value of the furnace temperature. Therefore, the change amount of the predicted value of the furnace temperature can be calculated at a timing synchronized with the control cycle for the combustion chamber 3. Thus, for example, it becomes unnecessary to perform calculations for adjusting the time of the predicted value of the furnace temperature to a time that matches the control cycle for the combustion chamber 3, and the furnace temperature can be predicted by cumulatively adding the predicted values of the change amount of the furnace temperature.

[0101] Also, in the present embodiment, the processing device 300 uses, as the second influencing factor, an influencing factor that further includes the coking time. Therefore, the prediction accuracy of the predicted value of the physical quantity representing the coking state of coke during unsteady operation can be further improved.

[0102] Also, in the present embodiment, the processing device 300 calculates the amount of change from the start to the end of the non-steady operation as the predicted value of the physical quantity representing the carbonization state of coke during the non-steady operation. Therefore, by predicting the physical quantity representing the carbonization state of coke at each of the start and end of the non-steady operation, the physical quantity representing the carbonization state of coke can be predicted.

[0103] Further, in the present embodiment, the processing device 300 executes the process with the end of the non-steady operation being set as the end of the coke extrusion operation at the (Da + 1)-th pass after the suspension of coal charging and extrusion into the coke oven chamber 2 has ended. Therefore, the end of the non-steady operation can be determined at the timing that serves as the boundary of the batch operation in the coke oven. Also, for example, the end of the non-steady operation can be determined according to the timing at which the coke temperature is measured.

[0104] Further, in the present embodiment, the processing device 300 executes the process with the start of the non-steady operation being set as the end of the coke extrusion operation at the pass Db passes before the start of the suspension of coal charging and extrusion into the coke oven chamber 2. Therefore, the end of the non-steady operation can be determined at the timing that serves as the boundary of the batch operation in the coke oven. Also, for example, the start of the non-steady operation can be determined according to the timing at which the coke temperature is measured.

[0105] Also, in the present embodiment, when the operating conditions are changed after the target furnace temperature trajectory is determined, among the first influencing factor and the second influencing factor, the influencing factor changed by the change in the operating conditions is changed according to the operating conditions, and then, at the time t m and subsequent times, the predicted value of the furnace temperature and the predicted value of the physical quantity representing the carbonization state of coke during the non-steady operation are recalculated, and the target furnace temperature trajectory is redetermined. Therefore, even when the operating conditions are changed after the target furnace temperature trajectory is determined, the target furnace temperature in the non-steady operation can be accurately determined.

[0106] Further, in the present embodiment, the processing device 300 determines the target furnace temperature trajectory based on the result of calculations including calculating the difference between the candidate of the target furnace temperature trajectory and the predicted value of the furnace temperature (refer to the first term on the right side of equation (12) as a specific example), and the difference between the target physical quantity which is the target value of the physical quantity representing the coking state of coke and the predicted value of the physical quantity representing the coking state of coke (refer to the second term on the right side of equation (12) as a specific example). Therefore, it is possible to realize both the quantitative evaluation of the predicted value of the furnace temperature and the quantitative evaluation of the predicted value of the physical quantity representing the coking state of coke. Thus, the target furnace temperature in unsteady operation can be accurately determined based on these quantitative evaluations.

[0107] Further, in the present embodiment, the processing device 300 determines the target furnace temperature trajectory based on the value of an evaluation function including a first evaluation index for evaluating the difference between the candidate of the target furnace temperature trajectory and the predicted value of the furnace temperature (refer to the first term on the right side of equation (12) as a specific example), and a second evaluation index for evaluating the difference between the target physical quantity which is the target value of the physical quantity representing the coking state of coke and the predicted value of the physical quantity representing the coking state of coke (refer to the second term on the right side of equation (12) as a specific example). Therefore, the quantitative evaluation of the predicted value of the furnace temperature and the quantitative evaluation of the predicted value of the physical quantity representing the coking state of coke can be performed by solving an optimization problem.

[0108] Further, in the present embodiment, the processing device 300 determines the target furnace temperature trajectory based on the value of an evaluation function further including a third evaluation index for evaluating the input heat amount (refer to the third term on the right side of equation (12) as a specific example). Therefore, the optimization problem for determining the target furnace temperature in unsteady operation can be made into an optimization problem from which a more accurate optimal solution can be obtained.

[0109] Further, in the present embodiment, the processing device 300 calculates the value of the evaluation function by varying the candidate of the target furnace temperature trajectory, and determines the target furnace temperature trajectory based on the calculated value of the evaluation function. Therefore, the target furnace temperature trajectory can be determined by a metaheuristic method without using a differential equation or the like for describing physical phenomena.

[0110] In addition, in the present embodiment, the processing device 300 calculates a predicted value of the input heat amount based on candidates for the target furnace temperature trajectory and the predicted value of the furnace temperature. Therefore, as a first influencing factor, the predicted value of the input heat amount can be quantitatively obtained.

[0111] In addition, in the present embodiment, the processing device 300 uses, as a physical quantity representing the coking state of coke during unsteady operation, the temperature of the coke produced during unsteady operation or the temperature of the furnace wall 4 during unsteady operation. Therefore, as a physical quantity representing the coking state of coke during unsteady operation, a physically measurable quantity during unsteady operation can be used. Thus, for example, it becomes possible to verify the predicted value of the physical quantity representing the coking state of coke. As described with reference to FIG. 2B, the temperature of the coke produced during unsteady operation is measured, for example, during the extrusion operation of the coke. Similarly, the temperature of the furnace wall 4 during unsteady operation is measured, for example, during the extrusion operation of the coke.

[0112] In addition, in the present embodiment, the processing device 300 uses, as the furnace temperature, the furnace group temperature which is a representative value of the temperatures in the plurality of combustion chambers 3. Therefore, the number of variables related to the furnace temperature can be reduced. Thus, for example, the computational load can be further reduced.

[0113] In addition, in the present embodiment, the processing device 300 generates and outputs a control signal for making the input heat amount to the combustion chamber 3 a heat amount corresponding to the difference between the target furnace temperature trajectory and the actual value of the furnace temperature. Therefore, in the processing device 300, control for realizing the target furnace temperature trajectory can be executed.

[0114] In this embodiment, the case where the furnace temperature is the temperature of the furnace charge is exemplified. However, the furnace temperature is not limited to the temperature of the furnace charge. For example, as described above, when control valves and actuators are installed in all the combustion chambers 3 and thermometers 6 are installed in all the combustion chambers 3, the equations may be modified so that the passage (block) is treated as an individual carbonization chamber 2, and the furnace temperature, which is the temperature in the combustion chamber 3 of the coke oven 1, may be set as the temperature of each individual combustion chamber 3 instead of the temperature of the furnace charge. In such a case, for example, equations (1) to (3) and equations (10) to (11) may be modified into equations for each combustion chamber 3. Also, at the start time t s and the end time t e of the non-steady operation, depending on which carbonization chamber 2 the coke temperature in is, the temperature of one or more combustion chambers 3 close to the carbonization chamber 2 may be set as the temperature for determining the explanatory variables ΔTr1 to ΔTr3 in equation (4). Also, for the first and third terms on the right side of equation (12), Σ|Tr(t) - Tr_ref| and Σ|Q(t)| may be calculated for each combustion chamber 3, and the sums of Σ|Tr(t) - Tr_ref| and Σ|Q(t)| for each combustion chamber 3 may be used as evaluation indices to be multiplied by the weighting factors w1 and w3, respectively.

[0115] Note that the embodiments of the present invention described above can be realized by a computer executing a program. Also, a computer-readable recording medium recording the program and a computer program product such as the program can also be applied as embodiments of the present invention. As the recording medium, for example, a flexible disk, a hard disk, an optical disk, a magneto-optical disk, a CD-ROM, a magnetic tape, a non-volatile memory card, a ROM, etc. can be used. Further, the embodiments of the present invention described above are merely examples of specific implementations in carrying out the present invention, and the technical scope of the present invention should not be construed as being limited thereby. That is, the present invention can be implemented in various forms without departing from its technical idea or its main features.

Explanation of Reference Numerals

[0116] 1 Coke oven 2 Carbonization chamber 3 Combustion chamber 4 Furnace wall 5 Control valve 6 Thermometer 7 Extrusion ram 8 Thermometer 9 Guide vehicle 300 Processing device 310 Acquisition unit 320 Predicted value calculation unit 321 Furnace state calculation unit 322 Input heat amount calculation unit 330 Target furnace temperature determination unit 340 Control unit t k Carbonization time t t Passage time t s Start time of unsteady operation t e End time of unsteady operation t m Time when operating conditions are changed T c Coke temperature T r Furnace mass temperature Tr_ref Target furnace temperature trajectory Tr_mes Actual furnace temperature trajectory time0 Period of unsteady operation time1 Minimum furnace temperature arrival time time2 Minimum furnace temperature maintenance time ΔTr1 Furnace temperature change amount at the start of unsteady operation ΔTr2 Furnace temperature change amount at the end of unsteady operation

Claims

1. A processing device for determining a target furnace temperature which is a target value during unsteady operation of the furnace temperature, which is the temperature of the combustion chamber in a coke oven, comprising: a predicted value calculation means for calculating a predicted value of the furnace temperature during the unsteady operation based on a first influencing factor which is a factor affecting the predicted value of the furnace temperature during the unsteady operation, and calculating a predicted value of a physical quantity representing the carbonization state of coke during the unsteady operation based on a second influencing factor which is a factor affecting the predicted value of the physical quantity; a target furnace temperature determination means for determining a target furnace temperature trajectory which is a time change of the target furnace temperature based on the predicted value of the furnace temperature during the unsteady operation and the predicted value of the physical quantity during the unsteady operation; A processing device comprising the above.

2. The first influencing factor includes: the amount of heat input to the combustion chamber during the unsteady operation; the furnace temperature at a timing before the prediction time of the predicted value of the furnace temperature during the unsteady operation, and a processing device according to claim 1, wherein the second influencing factor includes the furnace temperature during the unsteady operation. The second influencing factor includes: A processing device according to claim 1, further comprising the furnace temperature during the unsteady operation.

3. The predicted value calculation means: calculates a change amount for each predetermined time determined based on a control cycle for the combustion chamber as the predicted value of the furnace temperature, and a processing device according to claim 1 or 2.

4. The second influencing factor further includes: A processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 3, further including the carbonization time.

5. The predicted value calculation means: calculates a change amount from the start of the unsteady operation to the end of the unsteady operation as the predicted value of the physical quantity during the unsteady operation, and a processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 4.

6. The coke oven is: a coke oven in which charging and discharging operations are performed in Da ways for a plurality of carbonization chambers of the coke oven, where Da is an integer of 2 or more, and the end of the unsteady operation is: the end of the coke pushing operation in the (Da + 1)-th way after the end of the pause of charging and pushing into the carbonization chamber, and a processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 5.

7. The start of the unsteady operation is: the end of the coke pushing operation in the (Db)-th way before the start of the pause of charging and pushing into the carbonization chamber, where Db is an integer of 1 or more, and a processing device according to claim 6.

8. When the operating conditions are changed after the target furnace temperature trajectory is determined by the target furnace temperature determination means, The predicted value calculation means changes, according to the operation conditions, the influencing factor among the first influencing factor and the second influencing factor that is changed by the change of the operation conditions, and then recalculates the predicted value of the furnace temperature and the predicted value of the physical quantity during the unsteady operation at timings after the timing when the operation conditions are changed. The target furnace temperature determination means re-determines the target furnace temperature trajectory at timings after the timing when the operation conditions are changed. The processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 7. **Claim 9** The target furnace temperature determination means Based on the result of calculations including calculating the difference between a candidate for the target furnace temperature trajectory and the predicted value of the furnace temperature, and the difference between the target physical quantity which is the target value of the physical quantity and the predicted value of the physical quantity, determines the target furnace temperature trajectory. The processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 8. **Claim 10** The target furnace temperature determination means Based on the value of an evaluation function including a first evaluation index for evaluating the difference between a candidate for the target furnace temperature trajectory and the predicted value of the furnace temperature, and a second evaluation index for evaluating the difference between the target physical quantity which is the target value of the physical quantity and the predicted value of the physical quantity, determines the target furnace temperature trajectory. The processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 9. **Claim 11** The first influencing factor Includes the amount of heat input to the combustion chamber during the unsteady operation. The evaluation function Further includes a third evaluation index for evaluating the amount of heat input. The processing device according to claim 10. **Claim 12** The target furnace temperature determination means Calculates the value of the evaluation function with different candidates for the target furnace temperature trajectory, and based on the calculated value of the evaluation function, determines the target furnace temperature trajectory. The processing device according to claim 10 or 11. **Claim 13** The predicted value calculation means Based on a candidate for the target furnace temperature trajectory and the predicted value of the furnace temperature, calculates the predicted value of the amount of heat input to the combustion chamber during the unsteady operation. As the first influencing factor The predicted value of the amount of heat input is included. The processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 12. **Claim 14** The physical quantity during the unsteady operation Is the temperature of the coke produced during the unsteady operation or the temperature of the furnace wall of the coke oven during the unsteady operation. The processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 13. **Claim 15** The furnace temperature is The processing apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 14, which is the hearth temperature that is a representative value of the temperatures in the plurality of combustion chambers of the coke oven.

16. The processing apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 15, further comprising control means for generating and outputting a control signal for making the input heat amount to the combustion chamber of the coke oven an amount of heat corresponding to the difference between the target hearth temperature trajectory determined by the target hearth temperature determining means and the actual value of the hearth temperature.

17. A processing method for determining a target hearth temperature that is a target value during unsteady operation of the hearth temperature, which is the temperature of the combustion chamber in a coke oven, comprising: a predicted value calculation step of calculating a predicted value of the hearth temperature during the unsteady operation based on a first influencing factor that is a factor affecting the predicted value of the hearth temperature during the unsteady operation, and calculating a predicted value of a physical quantity representing the carbonization state of coke during the unsteady operation based on a second influencing factor that is a factor affecting the predicted value of the physical quantity; a target hearth temperature determination step of determining a target hearth temperature trajectory that is a time change of the target hearth temperature based on the predicted value of the hearth temperature during the unsteady operation and the predicted value of the physical quantity during the unsteady operation; A processing method comprising the above.

18. A program for causing a computer to function as each means of the processing apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 16.

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