Delivery management device and delivery management method

Abstract

To provide a delivery management apparatus and a delivery management method for managing delivery of gas cylinders in accordance with change in the amount of gas used.SOLUTION: A delivery management system is configured by connecting a database, a plurality of architectural structures managed by a delivery management apparatus 200, the delivery management apparatus, and terminals carried by delivery persons over a network. The delivery management apparatus includes: a gas consumption acquisition unit 204 which acquires information on the amount of gas used from gas cylinders equipped in the architectural structures; a meteorological information acquisition unit 205 which acquires information on weather in a place where the architectural structure is placed; a gas consumption prediction unit 206 which predicts the amount of gas to be used in the architectural structure on the basis of the information on the amount of gas used acquired by the gas consumption acquisition unit and the weather information acquired by the meteorological information acquisition unit; and an information generation unit 207 which generates delivery management information for managing delivery of new gas cylinders to the architectural structure, on the basis of the prediction of the gas consumption prediction unit.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a delivery management device and a delivery management method. [Background technology]

[0002] BACKGROUND ART A dynamic logistics automatic navigation device has been disclosed that creates a delivery plan, such as a route for delivery, in response to a package delivery request from a shipper (see Patent Document 1). [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Patent Publication No. 6-290193 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] When a gas cylinder installed in a building that stores gas fuel such as LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) is used up and needs to be replaced, a delivery person delivers a new gas cylinder to the building to replace the old gas cylinder. Generally, the amount of gas used by such a gas cylinder is not constant, and it has been difficult to manage the delivery of gas cylinders in response to changes in gas usage.

[0005] The present disclosure aims to provide a delivery management device and a delivery management method that can manage the delivery of gas cylinders in accordance with changes in gas usage. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] The delivery management device according to the present disclosure includes a gas usage amount acquisition unit that acquires information about gas usage from gas cylinders installed in a building; a weather information acquisition unit that acquires information about weather in a location where the building is installed; a gas usage amount prediction unit that predicts gas usage in the building based on the information about gas usage acquired by the gas usage amount acquisition unit and the information about weather acquired by the weather information acquisition unit; and an information generation unit that generates delivery management information for managing the delivery of new gas cylinders to the building based on the prediction by the gas usage amount prediction unit. The gas usage acquisition unit acquires the gas usage of the building in a unit period, the weather information acquisition unit acquires the temperature in the unit period where the building is located, and the gas usage prediction unit predicts the gas usage of the building by simple regression analysis of the temperatures and unit gas usage acquired in multiple unit periods, with the temperature in the unit period acquired by the weather information acquisition unit as an explanatory variable and the unit gas usage, which is the gas usage in the unit period acquired by the gas usage acquisition unit, as a target variable, and classifies the building based on the slope of the regression equation calculated by the simple regression analysis, the total average temperature, which is the average temperature in the analysis period for which the simple regression analysis is performed, and the total average gas usage, which is the average of the multiple unit gas usages in the analysis period. It is characterized by the following. [Effects of the Invention]

[0007] According to the present disclosure, gas usage in a building is predicted based on information regarding weather, and delivery management information for managing the delivery of gas cylinders is generated based on the predicted gas usage, thereby making it possible to manage the delivery of gas cylinders in accordance with changes in gas usage in the building. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0008] [Figure 1] 1 is a configuration diagram showing a part of the configuration of a delivery management system according to a first embodiment. [Figure 2] 1 is a block diagram showing a part of the configuration of a building according to the first embodiment. [Figure 3] 1 is a block diagram showing a part of the configuration of a delivery management device according to a first embodiment. [Figure 4] 1 is a configuration diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of a delivery management device and a terminal according to the first embodiment. [Figure 5] 1 is a configuration diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of a delivery management device and a terminal according to the first embodiment. [Figure 6] 4 is a flowchart showing a delivery management process performed by the delivery management device according to the first embodiment. [Figure 7] FIG. 10 is a distribution diagram showing the distribution of buildings in the first embodiment, where the horizontal axis represents the slope of the regression equation and the vertical axis represents the total average gas consumption. [Figure 8] FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram showing reference groups into which buildings according to the first embodiment are classified. [Figure 9] FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram showing groups into which buildings according to the first embodiment have been reclassified. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0009] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present disclosure will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. Embodiment 1 First, the configuration of a delivery management system 100 according to the first embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 1. Fig. 1 is a configuration diagram showing a part of the configuration of the delivery management system 100. The delivery management system 100 according to the first embodiment is a system for managing the delivery of gas cylinders 301 for replacing gas cylinders 301 to a building 300 in which gas cylinders 301 storing gas fuels used as fuels such as LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) are installed.

[0010] The delivery management system 100 comprises a database DB that stores statistical information related to weather, a plurality of buildings 300 in which gas cylinders 301 are installed, a delivery management device 200 that manages the delivery of the gas cylinders 301, and terminals M1, M2, M3, and M4 that are respectively owned by a plurality of delivery personnel who deliver the gas cylinders 301 to each building 300, and the database DB, the plurality of buildings 300 managed by the delivery management device 200, the delivery management device 200, and the plurality of terminals M1 to M4 are connected to each other by a network N.

[0011] The database DB stores, for example, statistical information on weather measured or collected by organizations such as government agencies, NGOs, and private companies, as well as information on future weather forecasts. The database DB acquires, for example, statistical information on weather, such as temperature, rainfall, snowfall, and sunshine hours at the location where the building 300 is located, by linking it with the measurement date and time, and provides the acquired information to the outside via the network N. Each of the terminals M1 to M4 has a display device Ma that displays information. The display device Ma is, for example, a liquid crystal display or the like that can display information as an image. The terminals M1 to M4 display the information acquired via the network N on the display device Ma.

[0012] Next, the configuration of the building 300 according to the first embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 2. Fig. 2 is a block diagram showing a portion of the configuration of the building 300. The building 300 has a gas cylinder 301, a gas usage amount measuring device 302, and a gas facility (not shown) that uses gas fuel. The gas cylinder 301 supplies the gas fuel stored therein to gas facilities (not shown) such as a heating facility, a hot water facility, and a gas cooker provided in the building 300 via a pressure regulator (not shown) that reduces the pressure of the gas fuel to a predetermined level.

[0013] The gas usage amount measuring device 302 has a flow rate measuring unit 302a, a timing unit 302c, a memory unit 302b, and an output unit 302d. The flow rate measuring unit 302a measures the flow rate of gas fuel supplied from the gas cylinder 301 to the gas equipment. The timing unit 302c measures the measurement date and time of the flow rate of gas fuel measured by the flow rate measuring unit 302a. The memory unit 302b stores the measurement result of the flow rate of gas fuel measured by the flow rate measuring unit 302a and information related to the measurement date and time.

[0014] The output unit 302d outputs information relating to the flow rate of gas fuel supplied from the gas cylinder 301 to the gas equipment via the network N. For example, the output unit 302d refers to information stored in the memory unit 302b and outputs the measurement result of the flow rate of gas fuel by the flow rate measurement unit 302a and information relating to the measurement date and time via the network N. Also, for example, the output unit 302d outputs the total amount of gas used in a predetermined unit period via the network N for each unit period. The unit period is, for example, one day, one week, or one month.

[0015] Configured in this manner, the gas usage measuring device 302 acquires information regarding the amount of gas supplied to the gas equipment of the building 300 by the gas cylinder 301, i.e., the gas usage amount of the building 300, and outputs the acquired information via the network.

[0016] Next, the configuration of delivery management device 200 according to embodiment 1 will be described with reference to Fig. 3. Fig. 3 is a block diagram showing a part of the configuration of delivery management device 200. Delivery management device 200 has input unit 201, output unit 202, gas usage amount acquisition unit 204, weather information acquisition unit 205, gas usage amount prediction unit 206, information generation unit 207, and storage unit 203.

[0017] The input unit 201 is connected to the network N and an input device such as a keyboard or a mouse, and receives various types of information as input. The output unit 202 is connected to the network N and an output device such as an LCD display, and outputs various types of information. The gas usage amount acquisition unit 204 acquires information related to gas usage from the gas usage measurement devices 302 of each building 300 via the input unit 201 and the network N. For example, the gas usage amount acquisition unit 204 acquires the total gas usage of each building 300 in a unit period multiple times during a predetermined survey period (analysis period) that is sufficiently longer than the unit period. Specifically, the gas usage amount acquisition unit 204 acquires the weekly gas usage of each building 300 from the start date to the end date of the 10-month survey period.

[0018] The weather information acquisition unit 205 acquires statistical information about the weather in the location of the building 300, for which the gas usage acquisition unit 204 has acquired information about gas usage, from the database DB via the input unit 201 and the network N. For example, the weather information acquisition unit 205 acquires statistical information about the temperature at a representative point in the area where the building 300, for which the gas usage acquisition unit 204 has acquired information about gas usage, is located. Specifically, if the gas usage acquisition unit 204 acquires gas usage for a unit period of a specific building 300 multiple times during a specific survey period, the weather information acquisition unit 205 acquires the average temperature at a representative point in the administrative district where the building 300 is located for the same unit period during which the gas usage acquisition unit 204 acquired gas usage during the survey period. Note that it is desirable that the unit period for which statistical information about gas usage and weather is acquired be adjacent to the previous and following unit periods. When multiple unit periods are set in this way, the total length of all unit periods is equal to the length of the survey period.

[0019] The gas usage prediction unit 206 predicts the gas usage of each building 300 for a prediction period, which is a predetermined future period, based on information related to the gas usage of each building 300 acquired by the gas usage acquisition unit 204 and statistical information related to the weather in the locations where these buildings 300 are located acquired by the weather information acquisition unit 205. Details of the gas usage prediction unit 206 will be described later.

[0020] The information generation unit 207 generates delivery management information for managing the delivery of new gas cylinders 301 to the building 300 based on the prediction by the gas usage prediction unit and the information stored in the memory unit 203. Details of the information generation unit 207 will be described later.

[0021] The memory unit 203 stores information input from the input unit 201, information calculated by each unit of the delivery management device 200, and other information. The memory unit 203 has a building information memory unit 203a, a weather information memory unit 203b, and a delivery information memory unit 203c. The building information memory unit 203a stores information about each building 300 input from the input unit 201. For example, the building information memory unit 203a stores information about the gas consumption of each building 300 acquired by the gas consumption amount acquisition unit 204, the address of each building 300, location information for identifying the location of each building 300, information for identifying consumers using the buildings 300, information about the characteristics of the buildings 300, and the like. The characteristics of the buildings 300 are, for example, the temperature elasticity of the gas consumption of each building 300. Details of the temperature elasticity of the gas consumption will be described later.

[0022] The weather information storage unit 203b stores statistical information about the weather in the location where each building 300 is located, which is acquired by the weather information acquisition unit 205. For example, the weather information storage unit 203b stores information about the temperature in the area where each building 300 is located, which is acquired by the weather information acquisition unit 205. The delivery information storage unit 203c stores information for managing the delivery of the gas cylinder 301, such as delivery management information generated by the information generation unit 207 and information about past deliveries of the gas cylinder 301.

[0023] Next, the hardware configuration of the delivery management device 200, the gas usage amount measuring device 302, and the terminals M1 to M4 will be described with reference to Figures 4 and 5. Figures 4 and 5 are diagrams showing an example of a portion of the hardware configuration of the delivery management device 200, the gas usage amount measuring device 302, and the terminals M1 to M4. For example, as shown in Fig. 4, the delivery management device 200 has a processing circuit, which is dedicated hardware. The processing circuit is configured, for example, by a single circuit, a composite circuit, a programmed processor, a parallel programmed processor, an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array), or a combination of these. Also, as shown in Fig. 5, for example, the delivery management device 200 has a memory and a processor, and is configured so that the processor reads and executes programs stored in the memory. In this way, each function of the delivery management device 200 is realized by the processing circuit or processor, which is dedicated hardware, executing a program.

[0024] Similarly, the gas usage measuring device 302 and terminals M1 to M4 have a processing circuit or processor which is dedicated hardware, and each function of the gas usage measuring device 302 and terminals M1 to M4 is realized by the processing circuit or processor which is dedicated hardware executing a program.

[0025] Next, the delivery management processing performed by the delivery management device 200 will be described with reference to Figures 1, 3, and 6 to 9. Figure 6 is a flowchart showing the delivery management processing performed by the delivery management device 200 according to embodiment 1. The delivery management processing is processing for supporting the delivery work of the gas cylinders 301 by the delivery personnel by generating delivery management information for managing the delivery of the gas cylinders 301 and transmitting the delivery management information to the terminals owned by each delivery personnel.

[0026] First, when the delivery management device 200 starts the delivery management process, it determines whether or not the gas usage acquisition unit 204 and the weather information acquisition unit 205 have acquired, for each building 300 under management, the unit gas usage as information regarding gas usage over different unit periods, and information regarding the temperature at the location where each building 300 is located during the unit period as statistical information regarding the weather (step ST1).

[0027] The unit gas usage is the gas usage per unit period in the survey period for each building 300 to be managed. For example, if the unit periods p1, p2, ..., pn are periods divided into unit periods from the start date of the survey period, the delivery management device 200 acquires, for each building 300, a plurality of unit gas usages u1, u2, ..., un, which are the gas usage of each building 300 in each unit period p1, p2, ..., pn. In addition, in this process, the delivery management device 200 acquires, as information related to temperature, for example, the average daily temperature in the area where each building 300 is located from the start date to the end date of the survey period.

[0028] In the process of step ST1, when information on unit gas consumption and temperature for a plurality of different unit periods is acquired (YES in step ST1), the delivery management device 200 calculates the unit temperature using the gas consumption prediction unit 206 based on the acquired information on temperature (step ST2). The unit temperature is the temperature in the unit period at the location of each building 300, and is the temperature in the unit period corresponding to the unit period for the acquired unit gas consumption. For example, the delivery management device 200 acquires unit temperatures t1, t2, ... tn, which are the average temperatures at the locations of each building 300 for each unit period p1, p2, ... pn for which the unit gas consumption was acquired.

[0029] After processing step ST2, the delivery management device 200 performs a simple regression analysis of the unit temperatures and unit gas consumption amounts acquired over multiple unit periods p1, p2, ..., pn for each building 300 using the unit temperatures t1, t2, ..., tn as explanatory variables and the unit gas consumption amount as the response variable, by the gas usage amount prediction unit 206 (step ST3). In this processing, the delivery management device 200 obtains the following regression equation, which is the result of the simple regression analysis of the unit temperature and unit gas consumption amount, with gas consumption amount as u and temperature as t. u=m*t+k (1)

[0030] Note that, since a sufficient number of unit temperatures and unit gas consumptions are required to ensure the reliability of simple regression analysis, it is desirable that the survey period be sufficiently longer than the unit period. However, if the survey period is too long, there is a possibility that the characteristics of the building 300 being managed may change due to changes in the consumer's family structure or changes in the building's gas equipment. For this reason, it is desirable that the survey period be at least six months but not more than three years. Furthermore, in areas with four seasons, it is desirable that the survey period cover at least three seasons, for example, at least nine months. More preferably, in areas with summer and winter, the survey period should be at least nine months but not more than one year, including summer and winter.

[0031] After processing step ST3, the delivery management device 200 calculates the total average gas usage U and the total average temperature for the survey period using the gas usage prediction unit 206 (step ST4). The total average gas usage U is the average value of the unit gas usage for the survey period. The total average gas usage U is expressed as follows using the unit gas usage u1, u2, ... un obtained in the unit periods p1, p2, ... pn and the number of samples n: U=(u1+u2+···+un) / n (2)

[0032] The total mean temperature is the average value of the unit temperatures over the survey period. The total mean temperature T is expressed as follows using the unit temperatures t1, t2,...tn calculated over the above multiple unit periods p1, p2,...pn and the number of samples n: T=(t1+t2+ tn) / n (3) The total average temperature may be obtained directly from the database DB by the weather information acquisition unit 205, or may be calculated by the gas usage prediction unit 206 based on the temperature of each day in the survey period and the number of days in the survey period obtained from the database DB by the weather information acquisition unit 205. Furthermore, if the unit temperature is the average temperature in the unit period and the total length of all the unit periods is equal to the length of the survey period, the total average temperature will be the average temperature in the survey period.

[0033] After processing step ST4, the delivery management device 200 causes the gas usage prediction unit 206 to calculate a characteristic value ε for each building 300 that is the management target, based on the total average gas usage during the survey period, the total average temperature, and the slope of the regression equation (step ST5). The characteristic value ε is the ratio of the rate of change in the gas consumption of the building 300 to the rate of change in the temperature of the location where the building 300 is located; in other words, the characteristic value ε is the temperature elasticity of the gas consumption of the building 300. The characteristic value ε is expressed as follows using the total average gas usage U during the survey period, the total average temperature T, and the slope m of the regression equation: ε=(dU / U) / (dT / T)=(T / U)*(dU / dT)=(T / U)m (4) Here, dT / T is the rate of change of the temperature, and dU / U is the rate of change of the gas consumption.

[0034] For example, a building 300 with a characteristic value ε of ε<0 tends to increase its gas consumption as the temperature drops, while a building 300 with a characteristic value ε of 0<ε tends to decrease its gas consumption as the temperature drops. Furthermore, a building 300 with a characteristic value ε of |ε|<1 has a small rate of change in gas consumption relative to changes in temperature, while a building 300 with a characteristic value ε of 1<|ε| has a large rate of change in gas consumption relative to changes in temperature. In other words, a building 300 with a characteristic value ε of |ε|<1 has a low temperature elasticity of gas consumption, while a building 300 with a characteristic value ε of 1<|ε| has a high temperature elasticity of gas consumption. In other words, a building 300 with a characteristic value ε of |ε|<1 has an inelastic gas consumption with respect to temperature, while a building 300 with a characteristic value ε of 1<|ε| has an elastic gas consumption with respect to temperature.

[0035] After processing step ST5, the delivery management device 200 extracts a specific building 300 from the multiple buildings 300 under management based on the characteristic value ε, the total average gas usage U, and the slope m of the regression equation using the gas usage prediction unit 206 (step ST6). 7 is a distribution diagram showing the distribution of buildings 300 within an area with the same statistical total average temperature T, with the horizontal axis representing the slope m of the regression equation and the vertical axis representing the total average gas usage U, in order to enable visual analysis of buildings 300 that are the subject of management based on the characteristic value ε, the total average gas usage U, and the slope m of the regression equation. In FIG. 7, line L1 indicates the line where the characteristic value ε is -1, line L0 indicates the line where the characteristic value ε is 0, and line L2 indicates the line where the characteristic value ε is 1.

[0036] Therefore, buildings 300 located in area A, which is the area below (to the left of) line L1, are buildings 300 whose characteristic value ε is ε<-1; buildings 300 located in area B, which is the area between lines L1 and L0, are buildings 300 whose characteristic value ε is 0<ε<-1; buildings 300 located in area C, which is the area between lines L0 and L2, are buildings 300 whose characteristic value ε is 0<ε<1; and buildings 300 located in area D, which is the area below (to the right of) line L2, are buildings 300 whose characteristic value ε is 1<ε. For example, in the processing of step ST6, the delivery management device 200 can classify the building 300 using the gas usage prediction unit 206 based on whether the characteristic value ε is ε<-1, ε=-1, -1<ε<0, ε=0, 0<ε<1, 1=ε, or 1<ε, whether the total average gas usage U is relatively high or low, and whether the absolute value |m| of the slope m of the regression equation is relatively large or small. Note that the determination of whether the total average gas usage U and the absolute value |m| of the slope m of the regression equation are relatively large or small may be made based on the average value of the total average gas usage U and the absolute value |m| of the slope m of the regression equation in each of regions A to D, the median value, or some other criterion.

[0037] 7, line L3 indicates a line where the total average gas usage U is equal to a predetermined first threshold U1, and line L4 indicates a line where the slope m of the regression equation is equal to a predetermined second threshold m1. In the processing of step ST6, the delivery management device 200, using the gas usage prediction unit 206, extracts, as specific buildings, buildings 300 located in area A1, which is an area above line L3 in area A, and buildings 300 located in area B1, which is an area to the left of line L4 in area B. The buildings 300 located in area A1 are buildings 300 with a relatively large characteristic value ε and a relatively large total average gas usage U, while the buildings 300 located in area B1 are buildings 300 with a relatively small characteristic value ε but a relatively large absolute value |m| of the slope m of the regression equation and a relatively large total average gas usage U.

[0038] Generally, gas consumption increases as the temperature drops. The specific buildings, i.e., buildings 300 located in area A1 and buildings 300 located in area B1, are likely to experience a significant increase in gas consumption as the temperature drops, significantly impacting the workload of delivery personnel when delivering gas cylinders 301. Therefore, managing specific buildings is important when managing the delivery of gas cylinders 301. Note that in FIG. 7, the intersection of line L3 and line L1 is depicted as coinciding with the intersection of line L4 and line L1, but the first threshold U1 and second threshold m1 may be set so that these intersections do not coincide. After extracting specific buildings, the delivery management device 200 stores, for each building 300, the characteristic value ε of the building 300, the slope m of the regression equation, and information indicating whether the building is a specific building in the building information storage unit 203a.

[0039] After processing step ST6, the delivery management device 200 acquires temperature information, which is information related to temperatures during a predetermined prediction period, via the weather information acquisition unit 205 (YES in step ST7). The prediction period may be, for example, the next week, the next month, the next quarter, or a predetermined period during the winter of the following year. The weather information acquisition unit 205 may acquire temperature information, which is a predicted value of the temperature during the prediction period, from the database DB, or the gas usage prediction unit 206 may acquire temperature information by predicting the temperature during the prediction period based on information about past weather acquired from the database DB.

[0040] After processing step ST7, the delivery management device 200 causes the gas usage prediction unit 206 to predict the gas usage of each specific building during the prediction period (step ST8). In this process, the gas usage prediction unit 206 predicts the gas usage of each specific building during the prediction period based on the information related to gas usage acquired by the gas usage acquisition unit 204 and the information related to weather acquired by the weather information acquisition unit 205. For example, the gas usage prediction unit 206 predicts the gas usage of each specific building based on the characteristic value ε of each specific building, the slope m of the regression equation, and the temperature information during the prediction period.

[0041] After performing the processing of step ST8, the delivery management device 200 generates delivery management information by the information generating unit 207 (step ST9). In this processing, the information generating unit 207 generates the delivery management information based on the prediction by the gas usage prediction unit 206. For example, the information generating unit 207 generates delivery management information including information on the number of replacements of the gas cylinders 301 of each building 300 required during the prediction period based on the prediction by the gas usage prediction unit 206. Also, for example, the information generating unit 207 generates delivery management information including information on the number of replacements of the gas cylinders 301 of each building 300 required during the prediction period based on the prediction by the gas usage prediction unit 206. Also, for example, the information generating unit 207 generates delivery management information including information on the delivery route along which the delivery person will deliver the gas cylinders 301 on each delivery date during the prediction period based on the prediction by the gas usage prediction unit 206.

[0042] Furthermore, for example, the information generation unit 207 generates delivery management information including information for classifying the plurality of buildings 300 into a plurality of groups based on the prediction by the gas usage prediction unit 206 and the location information of each building 300 acquired from the building information storage unit 203a. Specifically, the information generation unit 207 generates delivery management information including information for classifying the plurality of buildings 300 into a plurality of groups associated with each delivery person who delivers the gas cylinder 301 based on the prediction by the gas usage prediction unit 206 and the location information of each building 300 acquired from the building information storage unit 203a.

[0043] FIG. 8 is a schematic diagram showing groups into which multiple buildings J10-J49, which are the subject of management, are associated with each delivery person and classified. For example, the delivery information storage unit 203c stores information (classification information) in advance that classifies the buildings J10-J49 into groups R1, R2, R3, and R4, which are the multiple reference groups shown in FIG. 8. For example, buildings J10-J19 are classified into group R1, buildings J20-J29 are classified into group R2, buildings J30-J39 are classified into group R3, and buildings J40-J49 are classified into group R4. Each of groups R1-R4 is associated with a delivery person, and gas cylinders 301 are delivered to buildings classified into one group by the same delivery person. Groups R1-R4 are separated by a boundary BN. The boundary BN is set based on, for example, roads W1, W2, W3, W4, W5, W6, and W7, a river K, a railroad (not shown), an administrative division boundary (not shown), and the like.

[0044] The groups R1 to R4 stored as reference groups in the delivery information storage unit 203c may be, for example, information input in advance from the input unit 201, or may be groups when each delivery person delivered gas cylinders 301 in the past, such as during the previous prediction period.

[0045] For example, in the processing of step ST9, the information generating unit 207 refers to the information of the reference group stored in the delivery information storage unit 203c and predicts, for each group, the delivery time required to deliver the gas cylinder 301 during the prediction period. For example, the information generating unit 207 generates delivery management information for each group, including information indicating the delivery route of the gas cylinder 301 passing through buildings to which the gas cylinder 301 is to be delivered, and predicts the delivery time required to deliver the gas cylinder 301 along the delivery route. Furthermore, for example, the information generating unit 207 predicts the delivery time required to deliver the gas cylinder 301 based on one or a combination of the length of the generated delivery route, the number of buildings passed by the generated delivery route, the number of gas cylinders 301 to be replaced when delivering along the generated delivery route, and the predicted travel time required to travel along the delivery route by a transport vehicle or the like for transporting the gas cylinder 301 for delivery and a predetermined means of transportation.

[0046] After predicting the delivery times, the information generating unit 207 compares the predicted delivery times between the groups and reclassifies the buildings J10 to J49 into new groups so as to reduce the difference in delivery time between the groups.

[0047] 9 is a schematic diagram showing the groups into which the information generation unit 207 has reclassified the buildings J10 to J49. For example, if the information generation unit 207 determines that the delivery time required to deliver the gas cylinder 301 to the buildings in group R2 during the prediction period is longer than the delivery time required to deliver the gas cylinder 301 to the buildings in group R1 during the prediction period, the information generation unit 207 changes the boundary BN to set a new boundary BN' and reclassifies the buildings J10 to J49 into new groups R1', R2', R3, and R4. For example, the information generation unit 207 adds buildings J28 and J29 included in group R2 to buildings J10 to J19 included in group R1 to create a new group R1', and removes buildings J28 and J29 included in group R2 from group R2 to create a new group R2'. This allows delivery management of the gas cylinders 301 to be performed so as to equalize the workload among the delivery personnel who make deliveries for each of the groups R1', R2', R3, and R4.

[0048] When the information generation unit 207 classifies the buildings J10 to J49 into new groups, it generates delivery management information including information indicating the delivery route of the gas cylinder 301 for each of the newly classified groups.

[0049] If no information is acquired in the processing of step ST1 (NO in step ST1), or if no temperature information is acquired in the processing of step ST7 (NO in step ST7), the delivery management device 200 generates delivery management information (step ST9) without using the information generation unit 207 to predict gas usage or classify buildings into new groups. For example, in this processing, the information generation unit 207 generates delivery management information including information on delivery routes that is not based on predictions of gas consumption, based on groups R1 to R4, which are reference groups.

[0050] In the process of step ST9, when the information generating unit 207 generates the delivery management information, the delivery management device 200 outputs (transmits) the delivery management information from the output unit 202 (step ST10). For example, the delivery management device 200 transmits the delivery management information, including information indicating that the buildings have been classified into a new group and information indicating the delivery route of each group, to the terminal of the delivery person corresponding to each group among the terminals M1 to M4. When the terminals M1 to M4 receive the delivery management information, they display the received delivery management information on the display device Ma. For example, the terminals M1 to M4 display the delivery route of the gas cylinders 301 of the group corresponding to the delivery person using the terminal on the display device Ma.

[0051] In this way, the delivery management device 200 of embodiment 1 predicts gas usage in the building 300 based on information regarding temperature, and generates delivery management information for managing the delivery of the gas cylinder 301 based on the predicted gas usage, thereby enabling delivery management of the gas cylinder 301 in accordance with changes in gas usage in the building 300.

[0052] In addition, the delivery management device 200 of embodiment 1 classifies multiple buildings 300 into multiple groups based on predicted gas usage, and therefore can manage delivery for each group according to gas usage based on predicted gas usage.

[0053] In addition, the delivery management device 200 according to embodiment 1 predicts the delivery time of the gas cylinders 301 for each group and classifies multiple buildings into new multiple groups so that the difference in delivery time between multiple groups is small, thereby leveling out the workload of delivery personnel, which changes in response to changes in gas usage.

[0054] Note that, although the delivery management device 200 according to the first embodiment predicts the gas usage in the building 300 based on information related to temperature, it is not limited to this. The delivery management device may predict the gas usage in the building based on information related to weather that is correlated with the gas usage, and for example, the delivery management device may predict the gas usage based on information related to weather such as the amount of rainfall, the amount of snowfall, and the hours of sunshine.

[0055] Furthermore, delivery management device 200 according to the first embodiment compares the predicted delivery times between the groups and reclassifies buildings J10 to J49 into new groups so as to reduce the difference in delivery time between the groups, but is not limited to this. The delivery management device may classify buildings into multiple groups so as to reduce the difference in the amount of delivery work between the groups. For example, the delivery management device may generate information on the delivery routes of gas cylinders for each group and classify the buildings into multiple groups so as to reduce the difference in the length of the delivery routes between the groups, or may classify the buildings into multiple groups so as to reduce the difference in the length of travel time along the delivery routes by a predetermined means of transportation between the groups, or may classify the buildings into multiple groups so as to reduce the difference in the number of buildings that the delivery routes pass through between the groups, or may classify the buildings into multiple groups so as to reduce the difference in the number of gas cylinders that need to be replaced when delivering along the delivery routes between the groups.

[0056] In addition, in the present disclosure, any of the components of the embodiments may be modified or omitted. [Explanation of symbols]

[0057] 200 Delivery management device 202 Output section 204 Gas usage acquisition unit 205 Weather Information Acquisition Department 206 Gas Usage Prediction Unit 207 Information generation section 300 Buildings 301 Gas Cylinder m Slope of the regression equation M1~M4 terminals T Total mean temperature U Total average gas consumption ε characteristic value

Claims

1. a gas usage amount acquiring unit that acquires information about gas usage amount from a gas cylinder installed in the building; a weather information acquisition unit that acquires information about the weather in a location where the building is located; a gas usage amount prediction unit that predicts gas usage in the building based on information about gas usage acquired by the gas usage amount acquisition unit and information about weather acquired by the weather information acquisition unit; an information generating unit that generates delivery management information for managing delivery of new gas cylinders to the building based on the prediction by the gas usage prediction unit, The gas usage amount acquisition unit acquires the gas usage amount of the building for a unit period, the meteorological information acquisition unit acquires the temperature for a unit period at a location where the building is located, The gas usage amount prediction unit predicts the gas usage amount in the building by simple regression analysis of the temperatures and unit gas usage amounts acquired over a plurality of unit periods, with the temperatures in the unit periods acquired by the weather information acquisition unit as an explanatory variable and the unit gas usage amount, which is the gas usage amount in the unit periods acquired by the gas usage amount acquisition unit, as a response variable, and classifies the building based on the slope of the regression equation calculated by the simple regression analysis, the total average temperature, which is the average temperature over the analysis period in which the simple regression analysis is performed, and the total average gas usage amount, which is the average value of the plurality of unit gas usage amounts over the analysis period. A delivery management device characterized by:

2. A gas usage acquisition unit that acquires information about gas usage from a gas cylinder installed in a building; a weather information acquisition unit that acquires information about the weather in a location where the building is located; a gas usage amount prediction unit that predicts gas usage in the building based on information about gas usage acquired by the gas usage amount acquisition unit and information about weather acquired by the weather information acquisition unit; an information generating unit that generates delivery management information for managing delivery of new gas cylinders to the building based on the prediction by the gas usage prediction unit, the information generation unit acquires location information relating to locations of a plurality of buildings including the building, and generates delivery management information including information for classifying the plurality of buildings into a plurality of groups based on the location information; the information generation unit generates, for each of the plurality of groups, delivery management information based on the location information, the delivery management information including information indicating a gas cylinder delivery route passing through buildings to which the gas cylinder is delivered; the information generation unit predicts a delivery time required to deliver the gas cylinder along the delivery route, and generates information for classifying the plurality of buildings into the plurality of groups based on the delivery time; The information generation unit acquires classification information including information on classification of the plurality of buildings into a plurality of reference groups, and classifies the plurality of buildings into the plurality of groups so as to reduce the difference in delivery time between the plurality of reference groups. A delivery management device characterized by:

3. The weather information acquisition unit acquires information about the temperature of the location where the building is located.

3. The delivery management device according to claim 1 or 2.

4. The information generation unit acquires location information regarding locations of a plurality of buildings including the building, and generates delivery management information including information for classifying the plurality of buildings into a plurality of groups based on the location information.

2. The delivery management device according to claim 1.

5. The information generating unit generates delivery management information for each of the plurality of groups based on the location information, the delivery management information including information indicating a delivery route of the gas cylinder passing through buildings to which the gas cylinder is delivered.

5. The delivery management device according to claim 4.

6. The information generation unit predicts a delivery time required to deliver the gas cylinder along the delivery route, and generates information for classifying the plurality of buildings into the plurality of groups based on the delivery time.

6. The delivery management device according to claim 5.

7. The information generation unit acquires classification information including information on classification of the plurality of buildings into a plurality of reference groups, and classifies the plurality of buildings into the plurality of groups so as to reduce the difference in delivery time between the plurality of reference groups.

7. The delivery management device according to claim 6.

8. an output unit that outputs delivery management information including the delivery route to a plurality of terminals associated with each of the plurality of groups; 6. The delivery management device according to claim 2 or 5.

9. A delivery management method performed by a device including a gas usage amount acquisition unit, a weather information acquisition unit, a gas usage amount prediction unit, and an information generation unit, a step in which the gas usage amount acquisition unit acquires information regarding gas usage amount from a gas cylinder installed in the building; a step in which the meteorological information acquisition unit acquires information about the weather in a location where the building is located; a step in which the gas usage prediction unit predicts the gas usage in the building based on the information on gas usage acquired by the gas usage acquisition unit and the information on weather acquired by the weather information acquisition unit; a step in which the information generation unit generates delivery management information for managing the delivery of new gas cylinders to the building based on the prediction by the gas usage prediction unit; The gas usage amount acquisition unit acquires the gas usage amount of the building for a unit period, the meteorological information acquisition unit acquires the temperature for a unit period at a location where the building is located, The gas usage amount prediction unit predicts the gas usage amount in the building by simple regression analysis of the temperatures and unit gas usage amounts acquired over a plurality of unit periods, with the temperatures in the unit periods acquired by the weather information acquisition unit as an explanatory variable and the unit gas usage amount, which is the gas usage amount in the unit periods acquired by the gas usage amount acquisition unit, as a response variable, and classifies the building based on the slope of the regression equation calculated by the simple regression analysis, the total average temperature, which is the average temperature over the analysis period in which the simple regression analysis is performed, and the total average gas usage amount, which is the average value of the plurality of unit gas usage amounts over the analysis period. A delivery management method characterized by:

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